Obama-Military Deal - 19-Month "Withdrawal" from Iraq, but 50,000 US Troops to Stay

Update: Vice President Joe Biden has effectively confirmed to NBC television that President Obama will announce the Iraq timetable in Friday's speech in North Carolina.


This deal probably could have been predicted weeks earlier, even as the US military --- including US Central Command head General David Petraeus and US commander in Iraq General Raymond Odierno --- were trying to undercut President Obama's 16-month timetable for withdrawal of all US combat troops from Iraq.

The military, again leading the leak parade, are telling media that the timetable will be 19 months, compromising between Obama's wishes and the 23-month plan set out by his commanders. White House officials indicate that the announcement of the timetable will come this week, possibly in a speech by Obama in North Carolina on Friday.

Here's the stinger, though: 50,000 US troops will remain in Iraq after the "withdrawal", classified as "residual" forces for training and support of Iraqi security units, intelligence operations, and even possible airstrikes by unmanned aircraft. Which is exactly what we have predicted for months --- indeed, it is merely a fulfillment of the proposals set out in December 2006, before the US military "surge", by the Iraq Study Group.

The contest over the US presence will now return to discussions between Washington and Baghdad: under the hotly-disputed Status of Forces Agreement reached in December, "all U.S. forces leave by the end of 2011, although that deal could be renegotiated to allow a longer American presence if the Iraqis request such help".

That battle over the American occupation, however, is in the politically-distant future, barring a significant upsurge in violence against US forces. For now, Obama and the military can take their war --- and the conflict between their ideas on how to fight it --- to Afghanistan and Pakistan.