Withdrawal from Iraq? The Escape Clauses Begin

NBC Pentagon correspondent Jim Miklaszeswki: "Military commanders, despite this Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government that all U.S. forces would be out by the end of 2011, are already making plans for a significant number of American troops to remain in Iraq beyond that 2011 deadline, assuming that Status of Forces Agreement agreement would be renegotiated. And one senior military commander told us that he expects large numbers of American troops to be in Iraq for the next 15 to 20 years."

The Washington Post: "[Obama] promised to 'proceed carefully' and 'consult closely' with military commanders and the Iraqi government, and he said 'there will surely be difficult periods and tactical adjustments'. Does that mean Mr. Obama is open to altering his plan if al-Qaeda or Iranian-backed militias rebound as U.S. troop levels decline?"

Randy Schoenemann, founder of Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, Washington Post: "[Obama's] plan features a longer timetable, commander flexibility, tactical adjustments and the presence of some 50,000 American troops for years....We should all hope President Obama continues to listen to Gens. David Petraeus and Ray Odierno, rebuffs his left-wing critics and stays the course with an Iraq policy John McCain might have formulated."

Danielle Pletka, American Enterprise Institute: "Will the residual force tasked with counterterrorism, training and force protection have accomplished its mission by the end of 2011?"

Christian Brose, "Shadow Government" blog of Foreign Policy: "I just hope that if, God forbid, things take a turn for the worse in Iraq, Obama will find the same courage his predecessor did two years ago, and that he won't let inconvenient truths become the enemy of good strategy."

Obama-Military Deal - 19-Month "Withdrawal" from Iraq, but 50,000 US Troops to Stay

Update: Vice President Joe Biden has effectively confirmed to NBC television that President Obama will announce the Iraq timetable in Friday's speech in North Carolina.


This deal probably could have been predicted weeks earlier, even as the US military --- including US Central Command head General David Petraeus and US commander in Iraq General Raymond Odierno --- were trying to undercut President Obama's 16-month timetable for withdrawal of all US combat troops from Iraq.

The military, again leading the leak parade, are telling media that the timetable will be 19 months, compromising between Obama's wishes and the 23-month plan set out by his commanders. White House officials indicate that the announcement of the timetable will come this week, possibly in a speech by Obama in North Carolina on Friday.

Here's the stinger, though: 50,000 US troops will remain in Iraq after the "withdrawal", classified as "residual" forces for training and support of Iraqi security units, intelligence operations, and even possible airstrikes by unmanned aircraft. Which is exactly what we have predicted for months --- indeed, it is merely a fulfillment of the proposals set out in December 2006, before the US military "surge", by the Iraq Study Group.

The contest over the US presence will now return to discussions between Washington and Baghdad: under the hotly-disputed Status of Forces Agreement reached in December, "all U.S. forces leave by the end of 2011, although that deal could be renegotiated to allow a longer American presence if the Iraqis request such help".

That battle over the American occupation, however, is in the politically-distant future, barring a significant upsurge in violence against US forces. For now, Obama and the military can take their war --- and the conflict between their ideas on how to fight it --- to Afghanistan and Pakistan.