Saturday
Mar212009
You Go First. No, You Go First: More on "Iran Response to Obama New Year Message"
Saturday, March 21, 2009 at 9:20
Related Post: Iran Responds to Obama New Year Message
American and British media are focusing this morning on the televised response of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (pictured), to President Obama's Nowruz (Iranian New Year) message.
The portrayal is stark, not only in "Western" media but in Iran's Press TV, which writes, "The Leader of the Islamic Revolution says the US has shown no sign of a real change in its hostile attitude toward the Iranian nation....The US has mistreated the Islamic Republic, which will not be forgotten by the Iranian nation....The US has repeatedly 'insulted' the Iranian nation and has threatened the country with military strikes under various pretexts, which cannot 'intimidate' the Iranian nation....The US has been a 'challenging test' for Iran since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 by practicing a 30-year animosity toward the country."
To repeat, before the drama of "hard-line Iranians" overwhelms us, none of this is unexpected. The Supreme Leader's none-too-subtle message, following official Government reaction, is that there will be no Iranian concessions in advance of talks with the US. It is also a clear statement that Iran will not give up its interest in cases like Palestine, the Lebanon, and Iraq; indeed, Tehran --- just like Washington --- will try to take the higher political and "moral" ground in all of these areas of possible conflict but also possible compromise.
It is significant that Khameini reacted so quickly, especially as Iran is in the midst of the holiday period, to the Obama message. That is a clear signal, however, that Tehran views this as a very serious US initiative. To wait several days before responding risked ceding the initiative to Washington.
Attention should be paid now to less vocal but equally important manoeuvres by Iranian leaders and diplomats. In particular, there is an immediate test of "engagement" next week with the proposed US talks on Afghanistan. Iran has been invited. If Tehran accepts, that will be a practical sign just as important as the Supreme Leader's rhetoric.
American and British media are focusing this morning on the televised response of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (pictured), to President Obama's Nowruz (Iranian New Year) message.The portrayal is stark, not only in "Western" media but in Iran's Press TV, which writes, "The Leader of the Islamic Revolution says the US has shown no sign of a real change in its hostile attitude toward the Iranian nation....The US has mistreated the Islamic Republic, which will not be forgotten by the Iranian nation....The US has repeatedly 'insulted' the Iranian nation and has threatened the country with military strikes under various pretexts, which cannot 'intimidate' the Iranian nation....The US has been a 'challenging test' for Iran since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 by practicing a 30-year animosity toward the country."
To repeat, before the drama of "hard-line Iranians" overwhelms us, none of this is unexpected. The Supreme Leader's none-too-subtle message, following official Government reaction, is that there will be no Iranian concessions in advance of talks with the US. It is also a clear statement that Iran will not give up its interest in cases like Palestine, the Lebanon, and Iraq; indeed, Tehran --- just like Washington --- will try to take the higher political and "moral" ground in all of these areas of possible conflict but also possible compromise.
It is significant that Khameini reacted so quickly, especially as Iran is in the midst of the holiday period, to the Obama message. That is a clear signal, however, that Tehran views this as a very serious US initiative. To wait several days before responding risked ceding the initiative to Washington.
Attention should be paid now to less vocal but equally important manoeuvres by Iranian leaders and diplomats. In particular, there is an immediate test of "engagement" next week with the proposed US talks on Afghanistan. Iran has been invited. If Tehran accepts, that will be a practical sign just as important as the Supreme Leader's rhetoric.
tagged Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Barack Obama, Iran, Nowruz, Sky News in Middle East & Iran
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Barack Obama, Iran, Nowruz, Sky News in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (2)
"It is significant that Khameini reacted so quickly, especially as Iran is in the midst of the holiday period, to the Obama message."
It's Theater! They arrange this stuff before it happens via back channels and neutral diplomats, that way everyone can at least maintain their dignity if the whole thing falls apart.
First you drop hints (extend a hand if you'll unclench your fists), then you give away a freebie (burn Israeli intelligence assets), then you establish back channel contacts (which we can't see, mostly because it's technically illegal. Back channels are also a form of espionage and a theoretical violation of the Logan Act, so it's kept secret) and then finally you have these public song and dances. By the time it gets to publicly digestible speeches, its laced with all the loopholes anyone needs to save face if anything goes wrong (we'll be nice if they stop supporting terrorists or they've threatened us before so we don't even know if they're lying)
Yes, we can be cynical and say this is evidence of typical realpolitik insincerity, but we could also see this positively as a sign that the engagement process is being handled capably by savvy and intelligent hands rather than a haplessly crude face off between two lame duck mad men (Obama v Khameini as opposed to Bush v Ahmadinejad)
UJ,
Great post. See today's follow-up to see the next step in the drama: Obama's agreement to "play this long" and not press Iran before the Presidential elections.
S.