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Sunday
Jun212009

The Latest from Iran (21 June): Does the Fight Continue?

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

NEW Iran: Can Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani Prompt a Solution?
NEW Text: Mohammad Khatami Statement (21 June)
LATEST Video: The “Neda” Protests (20-21 June)
ARCHIVE Video: The Protests in and Beyond Tehran (12-18 June)
The Latest from Iran (20 June): From Rally to Street Fighting

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IRAN DEMOS 92040 GMT: One of the latest postings on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site: "You have the legal right to protest lies and frauds." A full statement is promised on Mousavi's website.

2005 GMT: Reports that Fazaeh Hashemi, daughter of former President Rafsanjani, has been released from police custody.

1900 GMT: Protests and Arrests. Reports that cries of "God is Great" and "Death to the Dictator" from Tehran rooftops are even louder this evening. Lara Setrakian 0f ABC News (US) writes that all "first- and second-level Mousavi advisors and workers" have been arrested and Mousavi is not allowed to speak to journalists.

1800 GMT: We've just published an analysis on Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's political manoeuvres and whether they might foster a political solution.

1705 GMT: Four members of former President Rafsanjani's family have been released from police custory, but his daughter Faezeh (see 1325 GMT) is still detained.

1700 GMT: Today's pattern, on the lines that we set out this morning (0715 GMT), appears to be of the Iranian authorities getting a "breathing space" by putting a heavy security presence on the streets and in the squares and of the opposition movement considering its next move.

Correspondents inside Iran write of security personnel and paramilitary Basiji in large numbers in Tehran and other cities. Arrests of "reformist" activists and journalists continue, with latest news of detentions of members of the Islamic Participation Front.

There is, however, news of a "sit-in" of up to 10,000 people on Gisha Street in north Tehran.

1445 GMT: A disturbing claim from an activist via Twiter: "Ghalamsnews asks for those injured in recent violence to leave their names and contact number."

This should be considered in conjunction with the claim of the Mousavi campaign, publicised on their Facebook page (see 1335 GMT), that Ghalam News, which had been their website, had been hacked and might now be controlled by others. The possibility is that the message now up on the site is a trap to lure and detain protesters.

1345 GMT: Reports of demonstrators gathering in Vali-e Asr Street, Engelab Square, and Baharaestan.

1335 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page is buzzing with information, such as "GHALAMNEWS, the main Newsagency of Mir Hossein Mousavi seems to be hacked". Reports also indicate that Mousavi is asking for volunteers with professional management experience to join his effort.

While I can't be certain, my memory of the numbers indicate Mousavi's pages has added 12,000 supporters in the last few days, taking the current total beyond 80,000.

1325 GMT: More on the move against the family of former President Rafsanjani (0935 GMT). Five members have been detained; it is unclear how many, although Iranian activists have listed Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh and his granddaughter. The Fars News Agency claim they have been held to protect her against assassination attempts.

Faezeh Rafsanjani is a former member of the Majlis, the Iranian Parliament. She spoke at a Tehran rally last Tuesday.

1315 GMT: Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, possibly the strongest supporter of the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad in the clerical establishment, has declared that the establishment has no duty to convince Mousavi of the election's results (text in Farsi).

Ayatollah Yazdi is a member of the Guardian Council. He also, as a reader posted out in an important comment this morning (#2 below), is the leader of the Assembly of Experts: we reported yesterday that the Assembly had supported the Supreme Leader's Friday address, 24 hours before it was delivered, but Yazdi's was the only signature.

1240 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, the former successor to Ayatollah Khomeini but now under house arrest, has calle for three days' mourning for slain protestors.

1225 GMT: Summaries of former President Khatami's statement have appeared. Warning of the "dangerous" consequences of banning public demonstrations, he has argued that the Law and Constitution must be respected: "The people are the Government."

Latest reports of arrests: activist Shahab Talebani, newspaper editor Mohammad Ghoochani, National Front Party memberKourosh Za'eem.

BBC correspondent Jon Leyne has reportedly been ordered to leave the country.

1050 GMT: Ahmadinejad appears! Iran State News Agency is carrying the President's statement, "tell[ing] U.S and Britain to stop interfering in Iran's internal affairs".

Former President Khatami has also issued a statement about yesterday's events --- we are looking for an English translation.

1045 GMT: The Autobus Workers Union of Iran (Sendikaye Sherkat Vahed) has issued a declaration, asking that 26 June be a day "to ask all our fellow workers to struggle for the trampled rights of the majority of the people of Iran".

1040 GMT: CNN correspondent claims that final examinations at Azad University indefinitely postponed after 200 students refused to take them.

1010 GMT: An interesting move, either by Speaker of the Parliament Larijani or by State authorities representing his position. Balancing his internal criticism of the Government (see 0745 GMT), Larijani "has called for ties with Britain, France and Germany to be reconsidered in view of their 'shameful' statements". According to State media, Larijani mades the comments in a speech to the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis.

Shrewd readers of Iranian politics will note that, while Larijani also called US remarks "shameful", he did not call for a reconsideration of Iran's relations with Washington.

1000 GMT: State media is now taking the line of 10 deaths in yesterday's violence, all of them caused by "hooligans".

0935 GMT: CNN correspondent reports, "Faezeh Rafsanjani, daughter of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, was arrested Sat[urday] in Tehran, her brother said."

0925 GMT: Iran State media has now withdrawn the claim of "several" killed in the mosque fire yesterday.

0900 GMT: A bit of house-keeping: our video page was becoming overloading. It's now been split into Latest Video (the "Neda" videos of 20 June) and Archive Video.

0835 GMT: Definitely a State counter-attack in the media through allegations of extremism/terrorism. Latest claimed assaults are upon two petrol/gas stations and a military post.

(Press TV's website is lagging behind the campaign, however. Its main headline still is, "Calm Returns to Tehran Streets".)

0820 GMT: Sky News passes on the latest line from Iran's state media: "several people" killed by demonstrators in an attack on a Tehran mosque yesterday (see yesterday's update for initial references to the incident).

0757 GMT: Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has been brought out to give a lengthy, standard defence of the Presidential vote: it was well-organised, there is no chance of systematic fraud/vote-rigging, Western powers should not interfere/criticise, etc.

The statement is not nearly as significant as this question: where is President Ahmadinejad?
!--more-->
0755 GMT: We're just posting a new video of a claimed Saturday night attack on a Basiji headquarters.

0745 GMT: A political development, which depending on events may have lasting significance, that I missed yesterday. Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani told Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), "“Although the Guardian Council is made up of religious individuals, I wish certain members would not side with a certain presidential candidate."

Larijani's comment not only struck at the unnamed President Ahmadinejad but also challenged Iran's legislature-court of last resort as it supposedly recounted part of the Presidential vote. He has enough status, not only as head of the Parliament but as a former head of the National Security Council, to mobilise opposition "within" the system as demonstrations continue outside it. It also would be useful to know if he has been in contact with another potential challenger, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.H

Unlike other criticisms that were suppressed Saturday, Larijani's comments were reported on Press TV and the website Khabaronline. (It should also be noted that, during the week, Larijani pressed for and got a nominal Ministry of Interior investigation of the raids by security forces on Tehran University that allegedly killed up to five people.)

0735 GMT: Today "Neda" may become the symbolic label and image for a movement that is verging on revolution, rather than reform.

"Neda" (the name means voice or message of the divine) was far more than a symbol; apparently she was the woman shot and killed in cold blood by a paramilitary Basiji yesterday as, with her father, she watched the demonstrations. The graphic 40-second video of her death (which is posted, albeit on the "More" page) soon represented the violence and tragedy of yesterday's clashes. Within hours, Iranian activists on Twitter, who had begin using the tag #GR88 (Green 88), also adopted #Neda as the powerful shorthand for their cause.

Morning Update 0715 GMT: Apologies for the later start today --- we're still recovering from the intensity of events yesterday and a very late night.

This has the feeling of a "regrouping" morning, as both the Government and the opposition campaigns assess the marches, the violence, and the political situation. Our immediate reaction is that yesterday was a "score draw". The Supreme Leader and security forces struck first by ensuring there could be no single, large, organised gathering at Enqelab (Revolution) Square, while the Guardian Council fending off the pressure for a meaningful reconsideration of the vote. The opposition challenge rallied, however, both because of the persistence of demonstrators, now scattered throughout the city, and because of a single event: the appearance of Mir Hossein Mousavi at a large rally in Jeyhoon Street.

None of this assessment, however, should overshadow the tragedy of yesterday. The "confirmed" casualty count, based on hospital sources, is 19 dead, but the actual total may be far higher. There were hours of beatings, tear gassings, and panic, as security forces and paramilitary Basiji tried not only to disrupt a major rally but to crush resistance (supported by the effective blackout on media). This may have been supported by a deliberate effort to show the "terrorism" of the opposition through a staged or exaggerated proclamation of an attack at Ayatollah Khamenei's mausoleum.

Reader Comments (10)

"Definitely a State counter-attack in the media through allegations of extremism/terrorism"

This approach was previewed in the Supreme Leader's speech in which he warned of acts of terrorism occurring as part of the protests. Expect this rhetoric to be escalated in an effort to delegitimize the protests.

June 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterLyndon Larouche

Yesterdays letter of support from the Assembly of Experts for the Supreme leader may not be all it appears to be as stated by State Media;

from website below

" More on the Assembly of Experts statement. Earlier today, [ Saturday ] the Tehran Times posted an article claiming that the powerful clerical group, the Assembly of Experts, had on Saturday "expressed its 'strong support' for the Supreme Leader's statements on the presidential elections on Friday." It would have been a major blow to reformists' efforts to win the support of many senior clerics.

But as it turns out, it's not true. Reader Ali writes in:

I just wanted to point out that the letter of support written by assembly of experts in support of Khamenei's sermon is only signed by the deputy leader of the assembly, who is a former head of the judiciary and a staunch supporter of ahmadinejad, as well as a rival of Rafsanjani for the assembly's leadership election. He is the only one signing the letter and the government sponsored news media are reporting it as a letter from the full assembly.

And reader Majid provides more details:

Once again thanks for the great job in reporting the events. Just a comment about your 7:33pm item about the Assembly of Experts. The statement is not by the Assembly of Experts, but by Mohammad Yazdi, the head of the "Dabirkhane" of the Assembly of Experts. His statement doesn't carry much weight and definitely not a blow to the freedom movement. After all, there are certainly many Khamene'i loyalists in the Assembly of Experts .. "

via - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

June 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJames

One more insight into the '1984' type logic -

today's [ 21 June ] Tehran Times article - Police will deal with unauthorized rallies

" Deputy police chief Ahmadreza Radan announced on Saturday that security forces will deal sternly with illegal gatherings. "

" The police official said in unauthorized gatherings it is very difficult to distinguish between violent rioters and calm protestors... "

source
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=197208

June 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJames

James,

This is very useful re Assembly of Experts. We had reports that only "some" had signed, but I did not realise that only Yazdi's signature appears. We will follow closely.

S.

June 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

Possible signs of Labour tension/support in Iran but they need verification/authentication

Iranian AutoBus workers union [ Sendikaye Sherkat Vahed ] declaration

June 20th - reported on the web overnight

" Autobus Workers Union places itself alongside all those who are offering themselves in the struggle to build a free and independent civic society. The union condemns any kind of suppression and threats.

To recognize labor-union and social rights in Iran, the international labor organizations have declared the Fifth of Tir (June 26) the international day of support for imprisoned Iranian workers as well as for the institution of unions in Iran. "

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/iranian-bus-workers-join-resistance

supposed to be an English translation of farsi site below ;

https://www.ina-newsagency.com/Report-Details.aspx?reportId=2330&back=0&type=3

also reports on 19th and 20th June via various web sources [ need verification ] that the largest car company in Middle east based in Iran employing 30,000 workers...

" Workers at the Khodro automobile company have announced a production slow-down in solidarity with Iranian protesters. Twice a day the workers will cease production for a half hour."

June 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJames

Google now has a translation page. Just thought you'd want to know.

http://translate.google.com/?sl=fa&tl=en#

June 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterGKOTU

Video reported from a blog 30 minutes ago alleged to be today June 21 in Tehran showing demonstration

http://shooresh1917.blogspot.com/2009/06/all-we-want-is-better-world.html

previous posting was a minute by minute account of Saturday June 20th
in Tehran ;

http://shooresh1917.blogspot.com/2009/06/minute-by-minute-with-revolution.html

June 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJames

Thanks to all of you for the info. Please keep it coming.

We had a brief summary of the Autobus workers' declaration at 1045 GMT but, as James notes, the full statement is worth reading.

The video from "shooresh1917" appears to be part of a longer 13-minute video that we posted in the "LATEST Videos" section. The website, "Revolutionary Road", is well worth reading as events develop.

S.

June 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

Ref your 0745 GMT [ 0245 EST ] posting today

Speaker Larinjani spoke live on Channel 2 of the State TV on Saturday night

he's reported as criticising the state media IRIB

also " the authorities should provide an atmosphere in which people feel free to express their opinion "

see 11.19 am posting / translation today june 21 at National Iranian Community Website

http://niacblog.wordpress.com/

June 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJames

Guardian Council: Over 100% voted in 50 cities -on official IRIB 2 TV station
- News Release Iran's official English English language Press TV

21.38 GMT Sunday 21 June

" Iran's Guardian Council has admitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of those eligible to cast ballot in those areas.

The council's Spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, who was speaking on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2 on Sunday, made the remarks in response to complaints filed by Mohsen Rezaei -- a defeated candidate in the June 12 Presidential election. "

"Statistics provided by Mohsen Rezaei in which he claims more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 170 cities are not accurate -- the incident has happened in only 50 cities," Kadkhodaei said.

The spokesman, however, said that although the vote tally affected by such an irregularity is over 3 million, "it has yet to be determined whether the amount is decisive in the election results,"

see http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=98711&sectionid=351020101

June 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJames

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