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Entries in Jon Leyne (2)

Thursday
Jun252009

The Latest from Iran (25 June): The Sounds of Silence

The Iran Crisis (Day 14): What To Watch For Today

NEW Iran: A Tale of Two Twitterers
NEW Iran: A List of Those Killed and Detained (12-23 June)
NEW Iran: An Iranian Blogger on “The Beginning of the End”
The Latest from Iran (24 June): Afternoon Violence
Latest Video: Resistance and Violence (24 June)

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IRAN FLAG2115 GMT: A slow evening, probably the slowest since the start of the crisis. There are still reports of "God is Great" from the Tehran rooftops but no evidence of significant public or private shifts.

Some activists are talking of a mass release of green balloons at 1 p.m. local time on Friday, which would be soon after the Supreme Leader has led the prayer service at Tehran University. The Iranian Government, however, continues to throw bureaucracy at the opposition; the Ministry of Interior has informed Mir Hossein Mousavi that a permit for a march will only be issued if one week's notice, in person, is given.

2000 GMT: The BBC has posted the video of its interview with the doctor who tried to save the life of Neda Agha Soltan.

1755 GMT: Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, who apparently had switched sides in the battle with the withdrawal of his complaint over vote fraud, has tacked back today. He has said that the withdrawal of his petition to the Guardian Council is not a withdrawal of people's concerns about the Iranian system. He will pursue the issue of the system's cruelty to people until he "gets results".

1735 GMT: Self-proclaimed geopolitical wizard Thomas Barnett, who conjured an "arc of instability" to help rationalise the 2003 war in Iraq, comes out with this defense of "the devil you know" today: "Ahmadinejad, with his record — again, in Nixon-esque fashion — for doggedly hating the regime's avowed enemies (Israel and America), could likewise employ a Nixonian reversal under the right conditions."

So let me get this straight: instead of working with the Presidential candidate (Mousavi) who said just before the election that he thought the Iranian rhetoric on Israel had been too harsh and that he welcomed international negotiations over any Iranian consideration of a nuclear weapons programme, Barnett prefers that the US work with a President (Ahmadinejad) who has been unremittingly hostile on Israel, who has frustrated his own diplomats, and who has put forth the notion of "Western interference" to deal with issues over his re-election? Idiot.

Sorry, that is inappropriate.

Amoral idiot.

1725 GMT: Report that large number of anti-riot police and paramilitary Basiji are preventing people from stopping at the grave of Neda Agha Soltan.

1720 GMT: Correction: contrary to earlier report (1410 GMT), Seyed Alireza Beheshti, editor-in-chief of pro-Mousavi newspaper Kamaleh, has not been released from detention.

1635 GMT: Who Killed Neda? Javan newspaper, associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, has declared that the expelled BBC correspondent, Jon Leyne, hired a "member of the rabble" to shoot Neda Agha Soltan.

1615 GMT: Hezbollah towing the line. Agence France Press reports, "Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on Thursday accused the West of fomenting protests in Iran over this month's presidential election but added that it had no worries about the stability of its main foreign backer."

1525 GMT: We've received reliable information that prominent reformist politicians such as Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, a spokesperson for the Khatami Government, and Mostafa Tajzadeh, Deputy Interior Minister under Khatami, are under mounting pressure "to sign confessions and to appear on state controlled TV programs confessing to spectacular conspiracies against the national interests of Iran, in collaboration with foreign governments". Ramezanzadeh's wife yesterday conveyed her husband's message to the public to disregard any televised confessions that may be extracted from him or other leaders of reform in Iran.

1410 GMT: Report that Seyed Alireza Beheshti, the editor-in-chief of the pro-Mousavi newspaper Kalameh Sabz and the son of the late Ayatollah Beheshti (a key figure in the 1979 Revolution), has been released from detention. Also reported that 66 of the 70 faculty detained after their meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi yesterday have been freed.

1330 GMT: Reports continue of clashes at Enqelab Square, with protesters setting a bus on fire and trying to push back riot police. Claims that tear gas has been used.

1215 GMT: Some demonstrators have tried to reach the site for today's protest, Vali-e Asr Street at Enqelab Square, but Iranian security forces are trying to block any assembly. Army helicopters are flying overhead.

1145 GMT: Fifteen minutes before today's demonstration was supposed to begin. Both CNN and Al Jazeera are now featuring the statement of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemad Melli Party calling off the memorial march: "Despite all the efforts exerted by the sheikh of reforms [Karroubi] to prepare a site for the mourning ceremony, the ceremony will not take place on Thursday."

1130 GMT: News services are picking up on the latest statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi, posted on his website. He calls on supporters to continue demonstrating but to show restraint. He blames those who rigged the election for the violence and bloodshed. Perhaps most significantly, in looking for clues to future political manoeuvres, Mousavi says his access to others is "highly restricted" and he is under pressure to abandon his demand for an annulment of the election.

1100 GMT: The Effects of the Crisis. Iran's position in Afghanistan may be one of the casualties of the current conflict. CNN's Atia Abawi reports, "Drove by a big poster of Neda in Kabul, across from Iranian Embassy. Pic[ture] of her death and Afghan TV crews interviewing people. Poster of Neda was larger than most presidential campaign posters in the city."

0950 GMT: Tantalising (unconfirmed) story of the morning: "Ali Larijani was threatened [with] impeachment by Ahmadinejad supporters in parliament. Hoseinian,Tehrani, and Resai threatened Larijani [with] censure. Previously Larijani said that its not fair the GC [Guardian Council] supports a candidate [Ahmadinejad]."

0830 GMT: The story, which we noted yesterday, that 70 faculty members were detained after meeting Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi is now circulating in the mainstream press.

0825 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, the one-time successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, has sent a fax to Agence France Presse, warning, "If Iranians cannot talk about their legitimate rights at peaceful gatherings and are instead suppressed, complexities will build up which could possibly uproot the foundations of the government, no matter how powerful." He urged the Iranian Government to set up an "impartial" committee with full power to find a solution to the election crisis.

0815 GMT: He Speaks. Via Fars News Agency, President Ahmadinejad has put himself back in the political arena, blasting Barack Obama for interference in Iranian affairs.

0700 GMT: On the BBC' flagship radio programme, Today, Jeremy Bowen has focused on the news --- which we noted yesterday --- that more than 180 of the 290 members of Parliament invited to President Ahmadinejad's "victory party" did not attend.

0600 GMT: A message on Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi's website clarifies the postponement of today's march (see 0500 GMT). A spokesman says the memorial to those killed has been delayed by a week.
Sunday
Jun212009

The Latest from Iran (21 June): Does the Fight Continue?

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

NEW Iran: Can Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani Prompt a Solution?
NEW Text: Mohammad Khatami Statement (21 June)
LATEST Video: The “Neda” Protests (20-21 June)
ARCHIVE Video: The Protests in and Beyond Tehran (12-18 June)
The Latest from Iran (20 June): From Rally to Street Fighting

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IRAN DEMOS 92040 GMT: One of the latest postings on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site: "You have the legal right to protest lies and frauds." A full statement is promised on Mousavi's website.

2005 GMT: Reports that Fazaeh Hashemi, daughter of former President Rafsanjani, has been released from police custody.

1900 GMT: Protests and Arrests. Reports that cries of "God is Great" and "Death to the Dictator" from Tehran rooftops are even louder this evening. Lara Setrakian 0f ABC News (US) writes that all "first- and second-level Mousavi advisors and workers" have been arrested and Mousavi is not allowed to speak to journalists.

1800 GMT: We've just published an analysis on Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's political manoeuvres and whether they might foster a political solution.

1705 GMT: Four members of former President Rafsanjani's family have been released from police custory, but his daughter Faezeh (see 1325 GMT) is still detained.

1700 GMT: Today's pattern, on the lines that we set out this morning (0715 GMT), appears to be of the Iranian authorities getting a "breathing space" by putting a heavy security presence on the streets and in the squares and of the opposition movement considering its next move.

Correspondents inside Iran write of security personnel and paramilitary Basiji in large numbers in Tehran and other cities. Arrests of "reformist" activists and journalists continue, with latest news of detentions of members of the Islamic Participation Front.

There is, however, news of a "sit-in" of up to 10,000 people on Gisha Street in north Tehran.

1445 GMT: A disturbing claim from an activist via Twiter: "Ghalamsnews asks for those injured in recent violence to leave their names and contact number."

This should be considered in conjunction with the claim of the Mousavi campaign, publicised on their Facebook page (see 1335 GMT), that Ghalam News, which had been their website, had been hacked and might now be controlled by others. The possibility is that the message now up on the site is a trap to lure and detain protesters.

1345 GMT: Reports of demonstrators gathering in Vali-e Asr Street, Engelab Square, and Baharaestan.

1335 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page is buzzing with information, such as "GHALAMNEWS, the main Newsagency of Mir Hossein Mousavi seems to be hacked". Reports also indicate that Mousavi is asking for volunteers with professional management experience to join his effort.

While I can't be certain, my memory of the numbers indicate Mousavi's pages has added 12,000 supporters in the last few days, taking the current total beyond 80,000.

1325 GMT: More on the move against the family of former President Rafsanjani (0935 GMT). Five members have been detained; it is unclear how many, although Iranian activists have listed Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh and his granddaughter. The Fars News Agency claim they have been held to protect her against assassination attempts.

Faezeh Rafsanjani is a former member of the Majlis, the Iranian Parliament. She spoke at a Tehran rally last Tuesday.

1315 GMT: Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, possibly the strongest supporter of the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad in the clerical establishment, has declared that the establishment has no duty to convince Mousavi of the election's results (text in Farsi).

Ayatollah Yazdi is a member of the Guardian Council. He also, as a reader posted out in an important comment this morning (#2 below), is the leader of the Assembly of Experts: we reported yesterday that the Assembly had supported the Supreme Leader's Friday address, 24 hours before it was delivered, but Yazdi's was the only signature.

1240 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, the former successor to Ayatollah Khomeini but now under house arrest, has calle for three days' mourning for slain protestors.

1225 GMT: Summaries of former President Khatami's statement have appeared. Warning of the "dangerous" consequences of banning public demonstrations, he has argued that the Law and Constitution must be respected: "The people are the Government."

Latest reports of arrests: activist Shahab Talebani, newspaper editor Mohammad Ghoochani, National Front Party memberKourosh Za'eem.

BBC correspondent Jon Leyne has reportedly been ordered to leave the country.

1050 GMT: Ahmadinejad appears! Iran State News Agency is carrying the President's statement, "tell[ing] U.S and Britain to stop interfering in Iran's internal affairs".

Former President Khatami has also issued a statement about yesterday's events --- we are looking for an English translation.

1045 GMT: The Autobus Workers Union of Iran (Sendikaye Sherkat Vahed) has issued a declaration, asking that 26 June be a day "to ask all our fellow workers to struggle for the trampled rights of the majority of the people of Iran".

1040 GMT: CNN correspondent claims that final examinations at Azad University indefinitely postponed after 200 students refused to take them.

1010 GMT: An interesting move, either by Speaker of the Parliament Larijani or by State authorities representing his position. Balancing his internal criticism of the Government (see 0745 GMT), Larijani "has called for ties with Britain, France and Germany to be reconsidered in view of their 'shameful' statements". According to State media, Larijani mades the comments in a speech to the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis.

Shrewd readers of Iranian politics will note that, while Larijani also called US remarks "shameful", he did not call for a reconsideration of Iran's relations with Washington.

1000 GMT: State media is now taking the line of 10 deaths in yesterday's violence, all of them caused by "hooligans".

0935 GMT: CNN correspondent reports, "Faezeh Rafsanjani, daughter of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, was arrested Sat[urday] in Tehran, her brother said."

0925 GMT: Iran State media has now withdrawn the claim of "several" killed in the mosque fire yesterday.

0900 GMT: A bit of house-keeping: our video page was becoming overloading. It's now been split into Latest Video (the "Neda" videos of 20 June) and Archive Video.

0835 GMT: Definitely a State counter-attack in the media through allegations of extremism/terrorism. Latest claimed assaults are upon two petrol/gas stations and a military post.

(Press TV's website is lagging behind the campaign, however. Its main headline still is, "Calm Returns to Tehran Streets".)

0820 GMT: Sky News passes on the latest line from Iran's state media: "several people" killed by demonstrators in an attack on a Tehran mosque yesterday (see yesterday's update for initial references to the incident).

0757 GMT: Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has been brought out to give a lengthy, standard defence of the Presidential vote: it was well-organised, there is no chance of systematic fraud/vote-rigging, Western powers should not interfere/criticise, etc.

The statement is not nearly as significant as this question: where is President Ahmadinejad?
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0755 GMT: We're just posting a new video of a claimed Saturday night attack on a Basiji headquarters.

0745 GMT: A political development, which depending on events may have lasting significance, that I missed yesterday. Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani told Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), "“Although the Guardian Council is made up of religious individuals, I wish certain members would not side with a certain presidential candidate."

Larijani's comment not only struck at the unnamed President Ahmadinejad but also challenged Iran's legislature-court of last resort as it supposedly recounted part of the Presidential vote. He has enough status, not only as head of the Parliament but as a former head of the National Security Council, to mobilise opposition "within" the system as demonstrations continue outside it. It also would be useful to know if he has been in contact with another potential challenger, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.H

Unlike other criticisms that were suppressed Saturday, Larijani's comments were reported on Press TV and the website Khabaronline. (It should also be noted that, during the week, Larijani pressed for and got a nominal Ministry of Interior investigation of the raids by security forces on Tehran University that allegedly killed up to five people.)

0735 GMT: Today "Neda" may become the symbolic label and image for a movement that is verging on revolution, rather than reform.

"Neda" (the name means voice or message of the divine) was far more than a symbol; apparently she was the woman shot and killed in cold blood by a paramilitary Basiji yesterday as, with her father, she watched the demonstrations. The graphic 40-second video of her death (which is posted, albeit on the "More" page) soon represented the violence and tragedy of yesterday's clashes. Within hours, Iranian activists on Twitter, who had begin using the tag #GR88 (Green 88), also adopted #Neda as the powerful shorthand for their cause.

Morning Update 0715 GMT: Apologies for the later start today --- we're still recovering from the intensity of events yesterday and a very late night.

This has the feeling of a "regrouping" morning, as both the Government and the opposition campaigns assess the marches, the violence, and the political situation. Our immediate reaction is that yesterday was a "score draw". The Supreme Leader and security forces struck first by ensuring there could be no single, large, organised gathering at Enqelab (Revolution) Square, while the Guardian Council fending off the pressure for a meaningful reconsideration of the vote. The opposition challenge rallied, however, both because of the persistence of demonstrators, now scattered throughout the city, and because of a single event: the appearance of Mir Hossein Mousavi at a large rally in Jeyhoon Street.

None of this assessment, however, should overshadow the tragedy of yesterday. The "confirmed" casualty count, based on hospital sources, is 19 dead, but the actual total may be far higher. There were hours of beatings, tear gassings, and panic, as security forces and paramilitary Basiji tried not only to disrupt a major rally but to crush resistance (supported by the effective blackout on media). This may have been supported by a deliberate effort to show the "terrorism" of the opposition through a staged or exaggerated proclamation of an attack at Ayatollah Khamenei's mausoleum.