The Latest from Iran (30 June): Opposition, It's Your Move

The Latest from Iran (1 July): The Opposition Regroups

LATEST Video: “Keeping the Peace” (30 June)
NEW Iran: To Its People, To The Future (A Daily Show Tribute)
The Latest from Iran (29 June): The Challenge Survives

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED



1925 GMT: Now Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi has reacted to yesterday's Guardian Council verdict: "This government is not legitimate.I'll continue fighting in any condition and with any means."

So, of the leading opposition challengers, only Mir Hossein Mousavi has been silent today. We think we know the reason but will wait until the morning to see if our analysis is right.

1900 GMT: In the category of "Well, He Would Say That, Wouldn't He?", President Ahmadinejad is quoted by the Islamic Republic News Agency: "This election was actually a referendum. The Iranian nation were the victors and the enemies, despite their ... plots of a soft toppling of the system, failed and couldn't reach their aims."

The significance is not in Ahmadinejad's words, but in their low-key presentation. Both in a national broadcast the night after the election and in a press conference the day after that, the President was loudly celebrating his win, even taunting the opposition as "dust". Now, the day after the Guardian Council has re-affirmed his victory, his public appearance is limited to a brief statement repeating the "foreign threat" theme.
Interpretation? After his over-enthusiasm in the first 48 hours beyond the vote, Ahmadinejad has been reined in by other leaders. The President's "victory" is looking decidedly Pyrrhic in the wider context of the Iranian system.

1440 GMT: Has Maziar Bahari, the Newsweek journalist detained by Iranian authorities, been forced to issue a "confession"?

1430 GMT: The account of "Reza", a student whose account of detention in Evin Prison was put out by "Change_For_Iran" on Twitter, has been re-posted in a single blog entry.

1345 GMT: Now It's Heating Up. After a slow start today, the post-election political and clerical battles have resumed. Within the past hour, moves against the opposition challenge have come from Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, a former head of the judiciary, who has declared that Mir Hossein Mousavi will not be approved as a candidate for the next Presidential election, and a Tehran Member of Parliament who has said the reformist party Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution "is a half-clandestine terrorist organization".

From the other side, Ayatollah Jaleleddin Taheri has asserted that the long-time nemeses of Ayatollah Khomeini are sending the Islamic Republic "to the museum". (A pro-Government Member of Parliament has claimed that Taheri, a prominent prayer leader in Isfahan, is not a "senior cleric".) And other politicians are feuding with the President of the University of Tehran over whether he "invited" security forces to raid the university's dormitories days after the election.

1320 GMT: The Association of Combatant Clerics have issued a statement complementing Khatami's response (1300 GMT).

1300 GMT: We started this morning by wondering what response would be made to the Guardian Council's attempt to close off debate on the Presidential election.

Finally, an answer: former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that an impartial board must address complaints about the election. Meanwhile, there must be change in the approach of the security forces and military to the opposition movement and the atmosphere caused by detentions and repression.

1215 GMT: The chief prosecutor in Isfahan has announced the release of 280 detainees.

1205 GMT: If true, this article from Eli Lake in The New Republic is a disturbing window on the short-sightedness of US Government officials when it comes to Iranian politics and society. The summary, based on interviews with Government sources and Iran-watchers, is that US analysts are "forced to make guesses about the Iranian freedom movement from afar" as they are "not in touch with organizers of the Iranian revolt".

The possibility that an official might be able to get a reasonable view of Iranian devleopments through a consideration of the many different sections of Iranian society beyond "organizers", either for the Government or the opposition, doesn't occur here. Nor does Lake or his interviewees seem to recognise that you don't have to rely on US Government-funded programmes, such as National Endowment for Democracy, the International Republican Institute, and Radio Farda, to build links for knowledge and analysis.

1200 GMT: An Iranian source says Tehran University students joined the mothers of detainees to protest outside Evin Prison yesterday. Other sources indicate that Evin is now full and detainees are being held in football stadiums.

Press TV English is saying nothing about the detentions. In fact, their current "world news" is saying nothing at all about Iran, preferring to focus on the nominal US withdrawal from Iraqi cities.

A reminder: the project of The Guardian of London to put pictures to the names of those killed and detained can be accessed via the newspaper's homepage.

1045 GMT: An Iranian source on Twitter summarises the situation concisely, "It's like Iran is in shock or coma or something." Still nothing of significance after yesterday's events.

0930 GMT: The calmest morning since the start of the crisis. Almost no information has moved via Internet and personal sources, and there is nothing on news sites beyond the Guardian Council's statement from yesterday. (Ironically, in light of the Iranian Government's restrictions on communication, the English-language site of the Islamic Republic News Agency is down.)

Reports that streets in Tehran are quiet, but a heavy security presence remains. And one piece of good news: the Iranian activist "persiankiwi", whom we have been profiling, is apparently safe and in contact with other reliable sources.

0730 GMT: The Facebook page of Mir Hossein Mousavi offers guidelines for protests, from the writing of Mousavi's name on banknotes to nighttime "Allahu Akhbars", but no specifics on demonstrations beyond the possibility of the days of "religious seclusion" (6-8 July). There is also a message in English: "The manner of a man is better than his gover[n]ance. Help to bring this message back to IRAN."

0615 GMT: Just now on the BBC's flagship radio programme: their Iranian specialist, Sadegh Saba, says the mood in Iran is one of "defeat...hopelessness...despair" with families unaware of where detained relatives are being held or, in some cases, which security branch took them.

0545 GMT: Press TV's website offers the most wonderful (and presumably unintential) ironic comment in 19 days of coverage:

Ahmadinejad's votes increased in the province of Kerman....The incumbent president's tally also rose by 12 votes in Jirof, after 17 of the 170 ballot boxes in the southeastern city were re-counted....The re-count in Jiroft resulted in five votes being deducted from runner up Mir-Hossein Mousavi and one vote being deducted from Mehdi Karroubi, while Mohsen Rezaei's ballots increased by three votes.

However, the changes in the tally were announced as being 'too small' to be deemed decisive in the outcome of the election. . (Ahmadinejad's original margin of victory was 11 million votes.)

The Iran Crisis (Day 19): What to Watch For Today

The Latest from Iran (30 June): Opposition, It’s Your Move

NEW Iran: To Its People, To The Future (A Daily Show Tribute)
LATEST Video: Rally at Qoba Mosque, Resistance, Violence (24-28 June)

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED

0515 GMT: Last night, the regime finally made what it hopes is the decisive political move. The Guardian Council, after almost a week of stop-start activity and announcements, carried out a recount of 10% of the ballot boxes --- live on TV --- and declared that the 12 June vote was valid: "From today on in the presidential election, the file has been closed."

The outcome was pre-ordained, as the Council itself made clear several days ago. What was more intriguing was the timing. In contrast to the public crackdown on dissent, the Iranian leadership was looking for some agreement with its challengers (of course, on terms highly favourable to the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad). As late as yesterday afternoon, talks were being held with representatives of Mir Hossein Mousavi. In the end, however, all three Presidential challengers refused to endorse the process.

So now we're back at 13 June, albeit in an environment much less favourable for protest. Security personnel are out in force, key members of the opposition are detained with hundreds of others, and communications have been broken or disrupted. Kayhan, the prominent "conservative" newspaper, has demanded the abrogation of the licenses of reformist parties. One should also factor in fatigue with the conflict and the desire for some (how many?) to "get back to normal".

There will be no repeat of the hundreds of thousands on the street in the three days after the original vote. On the other hand, there are thousands (how many?) who have persisted in showing their anger and their hope for an alternative, both in public gatherings and in rooftop protest. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have not conceded. And there are ripples of criticism, even amongst the clerics in the holy city of Qom, of the Iranian leadership.

The Latest from Iran (29 June): The Challenge Survives

The Latest from Iran (30 June): Opposition, It’s Your Move

The Latest from Iran (28 June): The Regime Fails to Wrap Up the Election
Latest Video: Rally at Ghobar Mosque (28 June)

NEW Iran: Identifying the Killed and Detained
NEW Iran: More on "Two Twitterers" (and on the Idiocy of "The Times")
NEW Iran: For Those Still Detained (A Daily Show Tribute)

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED

2215 GMT: Very little political movement tonight --- the interesting manoeuvres start tomorrow with reaction to the Guardian Council's attempt to close off further dispute over the election. Meanwhile, multiple sources report that "Allahu Akhbars" are louder than ever from Tehran rooftops.

1920 GMT: Multiple reports that, after Guardian Council affirmation of election result announced, protesters responded with loud shouts of "God is Great".

1915 GMT: Getting in Line. It looks like the regime has pulled one key figure back into place. Ali Larijani, the head of the Iranian Parliament, has declared that the unrest is "a not very important event" which will be overcome by the Islamic Republic. Larijani also pointed to foreign demons, saying that CNN had provided money and cellphones to portray a negative image of Iran.

1810 GMT: OK, There Was an Error. A spokesman for the Guardian Council said that President Ahmadinejad's vote total has been revised upwards after the recount.

1705 GMT: The Decision is Made. Iran state media has announced, "The secretary of the Guardian Council in a letter to the interior minister announced the final decision of the Council... and declares the approval of the accuracy of the results of... the presidential election."

The timing, as well as the politics earlier in the day (there was a last-gasp meeting with Mousavi representatives to get their acceptance), indicate the Council, or those behind it, is ready for a showdown with the opposition.

1700 GMT: It is difficult to verify the size of the "human chain" in Tehran today, but there are numerous reports of attempts to disrupt the gathering and of clashes: "Daneshju Park is full of Basij and special gaurds and militia forces are being organized in the park 4 dealing human chain....Alleis [sic] which are leading to Valieasr street are full of armed forces and Basij cyclists....Office of the Islamic Association of Sistan and Baluchestan University set on fire by anonymous people."

1400 GMT: An audio file of the Sunday speech of Faezeh Hashemi (text here), the daughter of former President Rafsanjani, has been uploaded. To call it strong is an understatement: Hashemi maintains that the Basiji and security forces behind President Ahmadinejad will remove the Supreme Leader if he does not support them.

1355 GMT: We're keeping eyes and ears open for news of the latest mass demonstration, a "human chain" from north to south of Iran. On Iranian state media, police commanders have warned that the gathering is unlicensed and will not be tolerated.

According to reports, the chain has begun on Vali-e Asr Street.

1345 GMT: An important blogger during the crisis, Saeed Valadbaygi of "Revolutionary Road", writes, "We have been attacked by Police and we had to move to new places to live and start out activities." Yesterday Valadbaygi broke the news of the arrests of two student activists and of the well-known Iranian comedian Reza Attaran at the Qoba mosque rally.

1335 GMT: Mehdi Khazali, the son of Ayatollah Khazali (a strong supporter of President Ahmadinejad), has been arrested. The younger Khazali has in the past accused Ahmadinejad of having Jewish roots.

1330 GMT: Reports that the representatives of Mir Hossein Mousavi met today with the Guardian Council but, according to the speaker of the Council, there was "no clear result".

1200 GMT: And here's why the question below is important: opposition candidates are moving to challenge the Guardian Council's ability to rule on the vote. Mohsen Rezaei's brother has declared that "70 percent" of the votes in some ballot boxes are filled out with the same pen in the same handwriting. He has stated that it makes "no sense" for the Council to declare there is no fraud before a special committee of enquiry is appointed to investigate the electoral process.

1145 GMT: Hold Your Breath. Still no word from the Guardian Council on the "recount". Instead state media are playing up the story that "no Iranian presidential candidates had filed complaints as a Monday deadline approached".

CNN reports that development but then does not ask the important question: when the deadline passes (it is now 4:30 p.m. in Tehran), will the Guardian Council act immediately to declare the legitimacy of the Presidential vote?

900 GMT: Fars News Agency is reporting that President Ahmadinejad has asked the Ministry of the Judiciary to investigate the killing of Neda Agha Soltan.

In a sign that the opposition campaigns are re-emerging, a key advisor to Mehdi Karroubi has resumed updates on Twitter.

655 GMT: Juan Cole is normally one of the shrewdest commentators on the Arab and Islamic worlds, but he misreads the Iran situation this morning. First, towed along in the blind wake of the "mainstream" media, he misses the significance of Sunday's Qoba mosque gathering. Second, he weakly describes the former President's speech, "Rafsanjani Defers to Khamenei". Rafsanjani is far too clever and calculating to defer to anyone --- this is more a case of biding his time.

0600 GMT: Let's Try Again. Iranian state media, including Al Alam Television, reports that the Guardian Council is "beginning" its partial recount of the Presidential vote.

So the regime is trying to retake the initiative, but it is still unclear how quickly. After all, the Council was supposed to "begin" the recount several days ago. Will this be a recount on the lines of the original verdict, which only took three hours after polls closed, or will it be a more drawn-out process? My suspicion is that this is a political, rather than a logistical (or statistical), question: a quick declaration indicates that the regime believes it is in a strong position.

0545 GMT (now cross-posted on "What to Watch For Today"): Beyond the blurred vision of the "mainstream" media (Al Jazeera English has now been reduced to prefacing every event in Iran with the adverb "apparently"), here is a solid fact:

The Iran crisis did not end yesterday.

Indeed there wasn't even the public resolution, as we predicted 24 hours ago, of a Guardian Council declaration that the election was complete, fair, and over. The Council remained silent, leaving the public political arena to others. Part of the area was occupied by the regime's diversion of "foreign interference", raised by the Supreme Leader and the head of intelligence, but the portrayal of the crisis as the work of Iranian employees of the British Embassy (some of whom remain in detention this morning, according to reports) remained incomplete.

Instead, part of that space was filled with the clearest demonstration (yes, "clear", despite the hyper-caution of Al Jazeera and BBC English) that protest continues. The hundreds of arrests, media shutdown, and threat of violence could not stop thousands from gathering in front of Qoba (Ghobar) mosque in Tehran for a memorial rally. It is uncertain how many thousands showed up, filling the mosque, the square outside, and possibly surrounding roads, but a glimpse of the short video that made it out of Iran (see our Latest Video section) leaves no doubt that this wasn't a rogue gathering of "hundreds" of dissidents.

And part of the space was filled with the refusal and even defiance of some within the Iranian establishment. Mehdi Karroubi made a wildly-acclaimed appearance at Qoba (see Latest Video). Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh was there, and reports indicate that Mir Hossein Mousavi spoke to the gathering via mobile phone and loudspeaker (there was a claim, probably a bit of insurgent propaganda, that he was close to the rally but could not get there because of the size of the crowd).

Away from Qoba, Rafsanjani made his first high-profile appearance since the election. His careful game --- praising the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei but also declaring the legimitacy of protest --- indicated that he will support a continuing "legal" examination of the election, rather than moving against President Ahmadinejad from the inside. Others have now gone further, however. Some clerics from Qom are now expressing their dissatisfaction; one ventured to criticise Khamenei, allegedly calling the Supreme Leader a "corpse-washer".

This does not add up to a teetering regime --- the flip side of the sweeping predictions yesterday that the political challenge was over. The demonstrations can go only so far without the support of the Revolutionary Guard and military (which can be ruled out) or a high-profile political challenger. For some, Mousavi can fill that role symbolically, but he is too limited in movement and organisation to have a decisive effect. We also are seeing nothing outside Tehran, making it impossible to guage the level of challenge to the regime beyond the capital.

Make no mistake, however. In Tehran the movement may have been crippled by mass arrests and battered by the security forces, but it continues.

The Iran Crisis (Day 18): What To Watch For Today

The Latest from Iran Crisis (29 June): The Challenge Survives
Latest Video: Rally at Ghobar Mosque (28 June)

NEW Iran: Identifying the Killed and Detained
NEW Iran: For Those Still Detained (A Daily Show Tribute)

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED

Beyond the blurred vision of the "mainstream" media (Al Jazeera English has now been reduced to prefacing every event in Iran with the adverb "apparently"), here is a solid fact:

The Iran crisis did not end yesterday.

Indeed there wasn't even the public resolution, as we predicted 24 hours ago, of a Guardian Council declaration that the election was complete, fair, and over. The Council remained silent, leaving the public political arena to others. Part of the area was occupied by the regime's diversion of "foreign interference", raised by the Supreme Leader and the head of intelligence, but the portrayal of the crisis as the work of Iranian employees of the British Embassy (some of whom remain in detention this morning, according to reports) remained incomplete.

Instead, part of that space was filled with the clearest demonstration (yes, "clear", despite the hyper-caution of Al Jazeera and BBC English) that protest continues. The hundreds of arrests, media shutdown, and threat of violence could not stop thousands from gathering in front of Qoba (Ghobar) mosque in Tehran for a memorial rally. It is uncertain how many thousands showed up, filling the mosque, the square outside, and possibly surrounding roads, but a glimpse of the short video that made it out of Iran (see our Latest Video section) leaves no doubt that this wasn't a rogue gathering of "hundreds" of dissidents.

And part of the space was filled with the refusal and even defiance of some within the Iranian establishment. Mehdi Karroubi made a wildly-acclaimed appearance at Qoba (see Latest Video). Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh was there, and reports indicate that Mir Hossein Mousavi spoke to the gathering via mobile phone and loudspeaker (there was a claim, probably a bit of insurgent propaganda, that he was close to the rally but could not get there because of the size of the crowd).

Away from Qoba, Rafsanjani made his first high-profile appearance since the election. His careful game --- praising the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei but also declaring the legimitacy of protest --- indicated that he will support a continuing "legal" examination of the election, rather than moving against President Ahmadinejad from the inside. Others have now gone further, however. Some clerics from Qom are now expressing their dissatisfaction; one ventured to criticise Khamenei, allegedly calling the Supreme Leader a "corpse-washer".

This does not add up to a teetering regime --- the flip side of the sweeping predictions yesterday that the political challenge was over. The demonstrations can go only so far without the support of the Revolutionary Guard and military (which can be ruled out) or a high-profile political challenger. For some, Mousavi can fill that role symbolically, but he is too limited in movement and organisation to have a decisive effect. We also are seeing nothing outside Tehran, making it impossible to guage the level of challenge to the regime beyond the capital.

Make no mistake, however. In Tehran the movement may have been crippled by mass arrests and battered by the security forces, but it continues.

The Iran Crisis (Day 17): What to Watch For Today

The Latest from Iran (28 June): The Regime Tries to Wrap Up the Election
NEW Text: Mousavi Letter to Guardian Council (27 June)
NEW Text: Mousavi Letter to Overseas Supporters (24 June)
The Latest from Iran (27 June): Situation Normal. Move Along.

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED

In the next eight hours we may know whether the high-profile challenge both to the Presidential vote and to the Iranian system continues or whether the, movement for change enters a longer-term, less visible phase. The Guardian Council will declare, after its purported recount of 10% of the ballot boxes, that the election was fair and that the count was accurate. What is unknown is whether all campaigns, and in particular those of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, will endorse the result. If they are, then this should end the high-level opposition, and  protest (while still very significant) will be carried out in numerous, often subtle ways; if the representatives stay away, then leading politicians and clerics have not given up.

There still may be yet another short-term compromise which delays any immediate resolution. On Thursday, the Guardian Council announced that a "special committee" would conduct an enquiry into the conduct of the election. It asked that all campaigns designate members of the committee. As of this morning, the Mousavi and Karroubi camps have not named their representatives, arguing that other members appointed by the Council are not fair and neutral.

Press TV's website offers one important signal, one that never made it to "Western" media yesterday, behind the manoeuvres.. The Expediency Council, which nominally rules on disputes of law and the political process, called on all candidates to cooperate fully with the Guardian Council's "inquiry": “As the best and most appropriate way, the Expediency Council asks all to observe the law and resolve conflicts and disputes (concerning the election) through legal channels.” Beyond the formal statement is the apparent concession of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to the re-election of his foe, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Rafsanjani leads the Council and, soon after the vote, had tried to bring it into the open against the outcome.

Behind this political showpiece is the threatening backdrop of the crackdown on dissent. Public clashes continues, even if it is difficult to get details (yesterday's alleged beating of women activists in Laleh Park is a pertinent case). Easier to document, even amidst the media blackout, is the scale of the arrests and detentions. Hundreds, including the most important associates and advisors of Mousavi and former President Mohammad Khatami, journalists (both "mainstream" and "new media", such as the Twitterer "persiankiwi"), students, and other activists, are now in prison.