The Latest from Iran (30 June): Opposition, It's Your Move

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The Latest from Iran (29 June): The Challenge Survives

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1925 GMT: Now Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi has reacted to yesterday's Guardian Council verdict: "This government is not legitimate.I'll continue fighting in any condition and with any means."

So, of the leading opposition challengers, only Mir Hossein Mousavi has been silent today. We think we know the reason but will wait until the morning to see if our analysis is right.

1900 GMT: In the category of "Well, He Would Say That, Wouldn't He?", President Ahmadinejad is quoted by the Islamic Republic News Agency: "This election was actually a referendum. The Iranian nation were the victors and the enemies, despite their ... plots of a soft toppling of the system, failed and couldn't reach their aims."

The significance is not in Ahmadinejad's words, but in their low-key presentation. Both in a national broadcast the night after the election and in a press conference the day after that, the President was loudly celebrating his win, even taunting the opposition as "dust". Now, the day after the Guardian Council has re-affirmed his victory, his public appearance is limited to a brief statement repeating the "foreign threat" theme.
Interpretation? After his over-enthusiasm in the first 48 hours beyond the vote, Ahmadinejad has been reined in by other leaders. The President's "victory" is looking decidedly Pyrrhic in the wider context of the Iranian system.

1440 GMT: Has Maziar Bahari, the Newsweek journalist detained by Iranian authorities, been forced to issue a "confession"?

1430 GMT: The account of "Reza", a student whose account of detention in Evin Prison was put out by "Change_For_Iran" on Twitter, has been re-posted in a single blog entry.

1345 GMT: Now It's Heating Up. After a slow start today, the post-election political and clerical battles have resumed. Within the past hour, moves against the opposition challenge have come from Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, a former head of the judiciary, who has declared that Mir Hossein Mousavi will not be approved as a candidate for the next Presidential election, and a Tehran Member of Parliament who has said the reformist party Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution "is a half-clandestine terrorist organization".

From the other side, Ayatollah Jaleleddin Taheri has asserted that the long-time nemeses of Ayatollah Khomeini are sending the Islamic Republic "to the museum". (A pro-Government Member of Parliament has claimed that Taheri, a prominent prayer leader in Isfahan, is not a "senior cleric".) And other politicians are feuding with the President of the University of Tehran over whether he "invited" security forces to raid the university's dormitories days after the election.

1320 GMT: The Association of Combatant Clerics have issued a statement complementing Khatami's response (1300 GMT).

1300 GMT: We started this morning by wondering what response would be made to the Guardian Council's attempt to close off debate on the Presidential election.

Finally, an answer: former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that an impartial board must address complaints about the election. Meanwhile, there must be change in the approach of the security forces and military to the opposition movement and the atmosphere caused by detentions and repression.

1215 GMT: The chief prosecutor in Isfahan has announced the release of 280 detainees.

1205 GMT: If true, this article from Eli Lake in The New Republic is a disturbing window on the short-sightedness of US Government officials when it comes to Iranian politics and society. The summary, based on interviews with Government sources and Iran-watchers, is that US analysts are "forced to make guesses about the Iranian freedom movement from afar" as they are "not in touch with organizers of the Iranian revolt".

The possibility that an official might be able to get a reasonable view of Iranian devleopments through a consideration of the many different sections of Iranian society beyond "organizers", either for the Government or the opposition, doesn't occur here. Nor does Lake or his interviewees seem to recognise that you don't have to rely on US Government-funded programmes, such as National Endowment for Democracy, the International Republican Institute, and Radio Farda, to build links for knowledge and analysis.

1200 GMT: An Iranian source says Tehran University students joined the mothers of detainees to protest outside Evin Prison yesterday. Other sources indicate that Evin is now full and detainees are being held in football stadiums.

Press TV English is saying nothing about the detentions. In fact, their current "world news" is saying nothing at all about Iran, preferring to focus on the nominal US withdrawal from Iraqi cities.

A reminder: the project of The Guardian of London to put pictures to the names of those killed and detained can be accessed via the newspaper's homepage.

1045 GMT: An Iranian source on Twitter summarises the situation concisely, "It's like Iran is in shock or coma or something." Still nothing of significance after yesterday's events.

0930 GMT: The calmest morning since the start of the crisis. Almost no information has moved via Internet and personal sources, and there is nothing on news sites beyond the Guardian Council's statement from yesterday. (Ironically, in light of the Iranian Government's restrictions on communication, the English-language site of the Islamic Republic News Agency is down.)

Reports that streets in Tehran are quiet, but a heavy security presence remains. And one piece of good news: the Iranian activist "persiankiwi", whom we have been profiling, is apparently safe and in contact with other reliable sources.

0730 GMT: The Facebook page of Mir Hossein Mousavi offers guidelines for protests, from the writing of Mousavi's name on banknotes to nighttime "Allahu Akhbars", but no specifics on demonstrations beyond the possibility of the days of "religious seclusion" (6-8 July). There is also a message in English: "The manner of a man is better than his gover[n]ance. Help to bring this message back to IRAN."

0615 GMT: Just now on the BBC's flagship radio programme: their Iranian specialist, Sadegh Saba, says the mood in Iran is one of "defeat...hopelessness...despair" with families unaware of where detained relatives are being held or, in some cases, which security branch took them.

0545 GMT: Press TV's website offers the most wonderful (and presumably unintential) ironic comment in 19 days of coverage:

Ahmadinejad's votes increased in the province of Kerman....The incumbent president's tally also rose by 12 votes in Jirof, after 17 of the 170 ballot boxes in the southeastern city were re-counted....The re-count in Jiroft resulted in five votes being deducted from runner up Mir-Hossein Mousavi and one vote being deducted from Mehdi Karroubi, while Mohsen Rezaei's ballots increased by three votes.

However, the changes in the tally were announced as being 'too small' to be deemed decisive in the outcome of the election. . (Ahmadinejad's original margin of victory was 11 million votes.)

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2115 GMT: We're closing off our coverage for the night with news that Mousavi has called for the release of protesters arrested in the past days' rallies. That news comes via CNN, who also have more on the Iranian football team's green wrist bands.

1700 GMT: Al Jazeera says state-run media in Iran briefly showed this afternoon's rally. SkyNews and CNN (albeit briefly) also are now showing images.

One of the banners from the Iran-South Korea World Cup football qualifier: "Go to Hell Dictator".

1600 GMT: Al Jazeera English have obtained film of the rally from 7 Tir Square showing thousands of people, most silent, marching. The gathering is calm.

Thank goodness for these images because the Iranian Government is now trying to squeeze out any notion of legitimate protest. Press TV English is leading with the Foreign Ministry's denunciation of "irresponsible meddling" by Western governments. The "American card" is now being played: amongst those summoned by the Ministry to hear the Government's protests is the Swiss Minister, the representative of US interests, and the Intelligence Ministry is saying that opposition websites are funded by American and British companies.

1518 GMT: Reports that Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi is at 7 Tir Square rally.

1510 GMT: Reports indicate that the demonstration in 7 Tir Square is so large that people are having problems getting off the underground and buses into the square.

If true, this may be one of the largest gatherings to be "non-covered" by the media. International journalists are effectively shut away, and state-run Press TV English is not saying a word about the rally.

1315 GMT: Among the 100+ reportedly arrested on Tuesday: Saeed Hajjarian, former Tehran councillor and advisor to President Khatami, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, Vice President under Khatami, and Mohammad Tavassoli, first mayor of Tehran. Ibrahim Yazdi, head of the Freedom Movement of Iran, avoided arrest because he was not at home.

Opposition activist Saeed Leylaz, who gave interviews over weekend to American and British media, also arrested.

1303 GMT: Reports that today's opposition demonstration will converage on 7 Tir Square from two directions, one group coming from Tehran University via Enqelab Avenue and one coming from Vanak Square.

The Iran national football team initially wore, then removed, green wristbands in their World Cup qualifying match with South Korea.

1300 GMT: Have just returned from BBC; staff said they are almost "blind" in Iran because of restrictions. Many CNN reports now consist of a London staffer walking into a room of computers and pointing out what is on YouTube.

1130 GMT: I am off for a live interview with BBC World TV, airing about 1215 GMT.

1125 GMT: Reports that Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has written a letter saying that, if Guardian Council does not offer details of vote recount today, he --- like Mousavi --- will ask for a new election.

1100 GMT: The latest message from Mir Hossein Mousavi to his supporters, via his campaign website: "Thursday afternoon wear black to mourn & participate in rallies or gatherings. I'll be there too."

Press TV English is now doing a balancing act, following news of the enquiry into the attacks on the Tehran University dormitories with a report on an Intelligence Ministry report to the Parliament, followed by their joint declaration urging "people to exercise restraint. No one should act in such a way as to play into the hands of the Western countries and Israel."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has also criticised "irresponsible meddling....insulting to the Iranian's people intelligence" by Western countries.

0930 GMT: I am off for an interview with BBC News about the current US approach to Iran.

0920 GMT: Friday is shaping to be an important day in this crisis. As Dr Seyed Mohammad Marandi indicated in our discussion on Al Jazeera yesterday, Ayatollah Khamenei will lead Friday prayers, while Mousavi supporters are saying they will march to the site.

0830 GMT: We wondered earlier what former President Rafsanjani was doing (0600 GMT). Reports emerging that he is meeting with the Expediency Council, an Iranian body which officially resolves differences or conflicts between the Iranian Parliament and the Guardian Council and also advises the Supreme Leader.

Press TV English reports that the Minister of the Interior has ordered an enquiry into the security forces' raid on Tehran University dormitories earlier this week.

0800 GMT: The official line inside Iran seems clear: Press TV English has just devoted the first minutes of its hourly news to the Supreme Leader's call for calm and unity. CNN has been reduced to repeating its "social media" story while Al Jazeera's correspondent in Tehran is struggling with poor sound and poor visibility in his office.

Outside Iran, however, there are interesting turnings. From London, Nazanin Ansari, the diplomatic editor of Kayhan newspaper, is telling Al Jazeera, "What the Supreme Leader has done, he has actually cornered himself. Soon you will see the Leader against the population and the marchers. We hear the chants of, "Down with the Dictator! Down with the Dictator! It is not so much against Mr Ahmadinejad as it is turning against the Supreme Leader."

0700 GMT: A reply via Twitter to our question below about Obama's statements on Iran, "He is allowng it to remain Iranian fight. Not Iran v US. If it became about US, [Iranian] government would crack hard on protesters. Government could say this is about US interference & really go after protesters. Not now. This is Iran people wanting change."

0630 GMT: We're still working through last night's somewhat curious statement by President Obama to CNBC, "I think it’s important to understand that either way we are going to be dealing with a regime in Iran that is hostile to the US." On the surface, it appears that he is both 1) maintaining the line that Washington will "engage" with Ahmadinejad if he remains in power; 2) damping down expectations of sudden movement in US-Iran relations if Mir Hossein Mousavi does becomes President.

Fair enough from a power politics standpoint. But, given the spin about US support for free expression and fair politics, what message does Obama's statement send to those demonstrating for a challenge to last Friday's vote? (My colleague Steve Hewitt has noted that yesterday morning, British Foreign Minister David Miliband sent out a similar message of "Mousavi is not a reformist" on the BBC.)

We've posted the videos of Obama's interview with CNBC and his earlier statement on Iran at his press conference with South Korea's President.

Morning Update 0600 GMT: All media except Iran's state-run services are effectively shut down inside the country. With reporters confined to their hotel rooms and offices to file reports, CNN is featuring the rise of "social media" such as Twitter.

That social media, while invaluable, can only offer a partial and uncertain picture. There are reports of more raids by police and paramilitary Basiji on university dormitories overnight --- we have video of the aftermath of one raid at Isfahan. Indications are that protests against President Ahmadinejad's re-election will take place in Tehran around 4 or 5 p.m. local time (1130-1230 GMT).

Politically, the notable intervention last night was the call of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, for calm and unity after his meeting with representatives of the four Presidential campaigns. The statement appears to be an attempt to get political breathing space, rather than a move towards a settlement, as the Guardian Council purportedly reviews part of last Friday's vote. The presence of opposition campaigns at the meeting indicates a willingness to support the Supreme Leader's call for non-violence; what will be more interesting will be their response (and the response of their supporters) to the implied plea for time to let the Guardian Council do its work.

(It is also notable, for us, that there has been no indication of former President Rafsanjani's political moves after his visit to Qom earlier this week to seek the support of senior clerics and the Assembly of Experts. President Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, is effectively on the sidelines while he is out of the country.)