Tuesday
Jun302009
The Iran Crisis (Day 19): What to Watch For Today
Tuesday, June 30, 2009 at 8:49
The Latest from Iran (30 June): Opposition, It’s Your Move
NEW Iran: To Its People, To The Future (A Daily Show Tribute)
LATEST Video: Rally at Qoba Mosque, Resistance, Violence (24-28 June)
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0515 GMT: Last night, the regime finally made what it hopes is the decisive political move. The Guardian Council, after almost a week of stop-start activity and announcements, carried out a recount of 10% of the ballot boxes --- live on TV --- and declared that the 12 June vote was valid: "From today on in the presidential election, the file has been closed."
The outcome was pre-ordained, as the Council itself made clear several days ago. What was more intriguing was the timing. In contrast to the public crackdown on dissent, the Iranian leadership was looking for some agreement with its challengers (of course, on terms highly favourable to the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad). As late as yesterday afternoon, talks were being held with representatives of Mir Hossein Mousavi. In the end, however, all three Presidential challengers refused to endorse the process.
So now we're back at 13 June, albeit in an environment much less favourable for protest. Security personnel are out in force, key members of the opposition are detained with hundreds of others, and communications have been broken or disrupted. Kayhan, the prominent "conservative" newspaper, has demanded the abrogation of the licenses of reformist parties. One should also factor in fatigue with the conflict and the desire for some (how many?) to "get back to normal".
There will be no repeat of the hundreds of thousands on the street in the three days after the original vote. On the other hand, there are thousands (how many?) who have persisted in showing their anger and their hope for an alternative, both in public gatherings and in rooftop protest. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have not conceded. And there are ripples of criticism, even amongst the clerics in the holy city of Qom, of the Iranian leadership.
NEW Iran: To Its People, To The Future (A Daily Show Tribute)
LATEST Video: Rally at Qoba Mosque, Resistance, Violence (24-28 June)
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
0515 GMT: Last night, the regime finally made what it hopes is the decisive political move. The Guardian Council, after almost a week of stop-start activity and announcements, carried out a recount of 10% of the ballot boxes --- live on TV --- and declared that the 12 June vote was valid: "From today on in the presidential election, the file has been closed."The outcome was pre-ordained, as the Council itself made clear several days ago. What was more intriguing was the timing. In contrast to the public crackdown on dissent, the Iranian leadership was looking for some agreement with its challengers (of course, on terms highly favourable to the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad). As late as yesterday afternoon, talks were being held with representatives of Mir Hossein Mousavi. In the end, however, all three Presidential challengers refused to endorse the process.
So now we're back at 13 June, albeit in an environment much less favourable for protest. Security personnel are out in force, key members of the opposition are detained with hundreds of others, and communications have been broken or disrupted. Kayhan, the prominent "conservative" newspaper, has demanded the abrogation of the licenses of reformist parties. One should also factor in fatigue with the conflict and the desire for some (how many?) to "get back to normal".
There will be no repeat of the hundreds of thousands on the street in the three days after the original vote. On the other hand, there are thousands (how many?) who have persisted in showing their anger and their hope for an alternative, both in public gatherings and in rooftop protest. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have not conceded. And there are ripples of criticism, even amongst the clerics in the holy city of Qom, of the Iranian leadership.
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