Tuesday
Aug112009
The Latest from Iran (11 August): A Change in Prayers and a Pause
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 18:21
NEW Iran Special Announcement: Supreme Leader Looking for (Facebook) Friends
Iran: Sifting Through Rafsanjani’s Decision
Iran Video: Extracts from Tehran Trials (8 August)
Truth and Reconciliation in/for Iran? A Roundtable Discussion
The Latest on Iran (10 August): Threats and Concessions
More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday’s Prayers?
Iran: The Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani on Abuse of Detainees
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2015 GMT: Lots of Twitter chatter about a demonstration for the Central Bazaar in Tehran, and bazaars in other Iranian cities, at 10 a.m. local time tomorrow.
1650 GMT: Speaking of the Revolutionary Guard. Here is the article which caused so much fuss this weekend, and which we have been covering extensively, by Yudollah Javani in the Guards' house journal. It concludes with the call for the judiciary to pursue the arrests of "ringleaders" of demonstrations such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi.
1620 GMT: Stepping Up Pressure, But On Whom. The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has called for "confronting soft threats in all the cultural, economic, political and social arenas": "IRGC's strategy for confrontation with soft threats comprises preventative measures, full intelligence information on the type of a given threat and the time of its occurrence and plans for preventing its occurrence and formation."
Jafari added that the IRGC is preparing its infrastructure for confronting military, hard, and soft threats, with the battle against soft threats delegated to the Basiji militia.
Yet what is meant to appear as a tough statement against the foreign-inspired "velvet revolution" may also be a tactical retreat. Jafari did not repeat the threats, issued by other IRGC outlets, of arrests of opposition leaders.
And, in what appears to be a coordinated public relations assault, the commander of the Basiji, Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb has warned, in an address to his forces, "The enemy always strives to hinder unity among the (Iranian) people and seeks to attain its devilish goals through sowing discord as a means of soft threat."
Taeb was not as careful as Jafari to limit his comments at the foreign menace, "The enemy stepped into the scene of the presidential election...to achieve its goals by means of its agents and elements in Iran."
1555 GMT: Press TV Turns Up the Heat on Mahmoud. Not one but two stories on Press TV English's website sound a warning to President Ahmadinejad. First, it carried the story, which we revealed yesterday in a special analysis, that the President had to scurry to a meeting with more than 200 members of "principlist" majority bloc in Parliament because of challenges to his Cabinet choices.
Then, four minutes, another article reported that senior "reformist" MP Mostafa Kavakebyan had demanded in Parliament that Ahmadinejad report on "constitutional violations" during the post-election conflict: "It is the duty of the President to pursue such issues. However, the president has made no move in this regard.” The same article mentioned the submission to Parliament by the Mousavi campaign of the numbers of protestors killed and detained.
1550 GMT: From the Asosciated Press: "President Nicolas Sarkozy's office says a French Embassy employee on trial in Iran has been freed from prison. A statement says Sarkozy has spoken with Nazak Afshar since her release."
However, the statement also indicated that French national Clotilde Reiss is still being held and implied that Afshar has been bailed and still faces prosecution: "Sarkozy also wants the charges against Afshar, a French-Iranian citizen, to be dropped."
1450 GMT: There is still some confusion over Hashemi Rafsanjani and Friday prayers in Tehran. Khabar Online adds two comments to the official statement of Rafsanjani. The first is from Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who pleaded ignorance of his brother's position. The second is from a close relative who insisted on remaining anonymous: "Mr. Rafsanjani has not completely made up his mind about his presence in the Friday prayers....The current conditions are special conditions that require Mr. Rafsanjani to re-evaluate his decision."
1430 GMT: We've split off this morning's first update as a special analysis, "Sifting Through Rafsanjani's Decision".
1420 GMT: A very slow day on news front, but reports that some detainees are being released, albeit with high bails. Amir Hossein Shemshadi, a member of the Green 88 campaign, was freed after $50,000 was posted; photographer Majid Saeedi put up $120,000.
1050 GMT: More on the Revolutionary Guards' Threats. Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, who is featured in today's roundtable discussion on "Truth and Reconciliation in/for Iran?", has published a useful overview of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps' warnings of possible arrests of opposition leaders. The article is in the Italian newspaper Il Messaggero, but for those who don't know Italian, the general sense can be picked up through Google Translate.
0920 GMT: Who's Trashing Larijani? The pro-Ahmadinejad Raja News claimed yesterday that Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the phone "in the afternoon of the elections day" to congratulate him on his imminent win.
The article criticizes Larijani for acting irresponsibly, given that he had access to confidential information. In addition, it cases doubt on the legitimacy of Larijani's doctorate.
0900 GMT: Reuters reports, via Sarmayeh in Iran, the statement of Alireza Beheshti, chief advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, "The names of 69 people who were killed in post-election unrest ... were submitted to Parliament for investigation. The report also included the names of about 220 detainees."
Judiciary spokesman Alireza Jamshidi said at a separate press conference that more than 4000 protesters were arrested in demonstrations after 12 June, "but 3,700 of them were released in the first week after their arrest.
0815 GMT: We've just posted a challenging in-depth discussion amongst four specialist Iran-watchers on "truth and reconciliation", in light of an open letter from 31 academics to The Guardian of London.
0800 GMT: Media Silence. This is eerie. No one is noticing Rafsanjani's official announcement. CNN International's last Iran story is from more than 24 hours ago, on the Revolutionary Guard's threat to arrest opposition leaders. BBC English posted yesterday morning on the Karroubi letter to Rafsanjani, as did Al Jazeera English.
Iran: Sifting Through Rafsanjani’s Decision
Iran Video: Extracts from Tehran Trials (8 August)
Truth and Reconciliation in/for Iran? A Roundtable Discussion
The Latest on Iran (10 August): Threats and Concessions
More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday’s Prayers?
Iran: The Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani on Abuse of Detainees
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2015 GMT: Lots of Twitter chatter about a demonstration for the Central Bazaar in Tehran, and bazaars in other Iranian cities, at 10 a.m. local time tomorrow.
1650 GMT: Speaking of the Revolutionary Guard. Here is the article which caused so much fuss this weekend, and which we have been covering extensively, by Yudollah Javani in the Guards' house journal. It concludes with the call for the judiciary to pursue the arrests of "ringleaders" of demonstrations such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi.
1620 GMT: Stepping Up Pressure, But On Whom. The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has called for "confronting soft threats in all the cultural, economic, political and social arenas": "IRGC's strategy for confrontation with soft threats comprises preventative measures, full intelligence information on the type of a given threat and the time of its occurrence and plans for preventing its occurrence and formation."
Jafari added that the IRGC is preparing its infrastructure for confronting military, hard, and soft threats, with the battle against soft threats delegated to the Basiji militia.
Yet what is meant to appear as a tough statement against the foreign-inspired "velvet revolution" may also be a tactical retreat. Jafari did not repeat the threats, issued by other IRGC outlets, of arrests of opposition leaders.
And, in what appears to be a coordinated public relations assault, the commander of the Basiji, Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb has warned, in an address to his forces, "The enemy always strives to hinder unity among the (Iranian) people and seeks to attain its devilish goals through sowing discord as a means of soft threat."
Taeb was not as careful as Jafari to limit his comments at the foreign menace, "The enemy stepped into the scene of the presidential election...to achieve its goals by means of its agents and elements in Iran."
1555 GMT: Press TV Turns Up the Heat on Mahmoud. Not one but two stories on Press TV English's website sound a warning to President Ahmadinejad. First, it carried the story, which we revealed yesterday in a special analysis, that the President had to scurry to a meeting with more than 200 members of "principlist" majority bloc in Parliament because of challenges to his Cabinet choices.
Then, four minutes, another article reported that senior "reformist" MP Mostafa Kavakebyan had demanded in Parliament that Ahmadinejad report on "constitutional violations" during the post-election conflict: "It is the duty of the President to pursue such issues. However, the president has made no move in this regard.” The same article mentioned the submission to Parliament by the Mousavi campaign of the numbers of protestors killed and detained.
1550 GMT: From the Asosciated Press: "President Nicolas Sarkozy's office says a French Embassy employee on trial in Iran has been freed from prison. A statement says Sarkozy has spoken with Nazak Afshar since her release."
However, the statement also indicated that French national Clotilde Reiss is still being held and implied that Afshar has been bailed and still faces prosecution: "Sarkozy also wants the charges against Afshar, a French-Iranian citizen, to be dropped."
1450 GMT: There is still some confusion over Hashemi Rafsanjani and Friday prayers in Tehran. Khabar Online adds two comments to the official statement of Rafsanjani. The first is from Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who pleaded ignorance of his brother's position. The second is from a close relative who insisted on remaining anonymous: "Mr. Rafsanjani has not completely made up his mind about his presence in the Friday prayers....The current conditions are special conditions that require Mr. Rafsanjani to re-evaluate his decision."
1430 GMT: We've split off this morning's first update as a special analysis, "Sifting Through Rafsanjani's Decision".
1420 GMT: A very slow day on news front, but reports that some detainees are being released, albeit with high bails. Amir Hossein Shemshadi, a member of the Green 88 campaign, was freed after $50,000 was posted; photographer Majid Saeedi put up $120,000.
1050 GMT: More on the Revolutionary Guards' Threats. Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, who is featured in today's roundtable discussion on "Truth and Reconciliation in/for Iran?", has published a useful overview of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps' warnings of possible arrests of opposition leaders. The article is in the Italian newspaper Il Messaggero, but for those who don't know Italian, the general sense can be picked up through Google Translate.
0920 GMT: Who's Trashing Larijani? The pro-Ahmadinejad Raja News claimed yesterday that Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the phone "in the afternoon of the elections day" to congratulate him on his imminent win.
The article criticizes Larijani for acting irresponsibly, given that he had access to confidential information. In addition, it cases doubt on the legitimacy of Larijani's doctorate.
0900 GMT: Reuters reports, via Sarmayeh in Iran, the statement of Alireza Beheshti, chief advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, "The names of 69 people who were killed in post-election unrest ... were submitted to Parliament for investigation. The report also included the names of about 220 detainees."
Judiciary spokesman Alireza Jamshidi said at a separate press conference that more than 4000 protesters were arrested in demonstrations after 12 June, "but 3,700 of them were released in the first week after their arrest.
0815 GMT: We've just posted a challenging in-depth discussion amongst four specialist Iran-watchers on "truth and reconciliation", in light of an open letter from 31 academics to The Guardian of London.
0800 GMT: Media Silence. This is eerie. No one is noticing Rafsanjani's official announcement. CNN International's last Iran story is from more than 24 hours ago, on the Revolutionary Guard's threat to arrest opposition leaders. BBC English posted yesterday morning on the Karroubi letter to Rafsanjani, as did Al Jazeera English.
tagged Ali Larijani, Alireza Beheshti, Alireza Jamshidi, Amir Hossein Shemshadi, Clotilde Reiss, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Khabar Online, Majid Saeedi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mostafa Kavakebyan, Nazak Afshar, Nicolas Sarkozy, Press TV, Raja News, Sarmayeh, The Guardian, Yudollah Javani in Middle East & Iran
Ali Larijani, Alireza Beheshti, Alireza Jamshidi, Amir Hossein Shemshadi, Clotilde Reiss, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Khabar Online, Majid Saeedi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mostafa Kavakebyan, Nazak Afshar, Nicolas Sarkozy, Press TV, Raja News, Sarmayeh, The Guardian, Yudollah Javani in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (7)
SOG no longer believes that this regime has capacity for reformation, over the past four weeks it has shown it is nothing but an occupation force setup by forign stooges and traitors, it is rotten to the core, People have risen to remove this grave tarnish in its history. The world has seen fruits of 30 years of terror, enough is enough. Free Iran
[...] posted here: The Latest from Iran (11 August): Rafsanjani's Decision | Enduring … Share and [...]
Alternative explanation for the withdrawal: Rafsanjani was told/assumed that if he spoke at the FP on Aug 14, he'd be arrested for inciting riots. The IRG is dying to put an end to the unrest. Any protests resulting from the Fri sermon would have given them a perfect excuse to take over overtly. Raf sensed this and didn't want to risk it, not now.
The regime is ruthlessly determined to end mass street protests. The level of security forces on the streets is testimony to that. Direct threats to Rafsanjani may well have communicated this ruthlessness unambiguously.
The regime is currently stewing in a mire of its own creation -deepening its crisis with the show trials and continuing detentions. And the political dynamics are running against it.
What more could Rafsanjani say anyway? Furthermore, significant unrest associated with his prayer speech might well undermine his stand.
So why bother?
[...] niucht gekratzt werden wird. Interessante Überlegungen und erste Analyse von Scott Lucas bei enduring america; das Fazit als [...]
I believe that Rafsanjani has found himself pushed into a corner. If he attends and addresses the people, many of the reformists will feel it is a signal to rally. If he doesn't attend it could trigger an even more mass demonstration allowed under the constitution, but denied by the regime. This regime cannot afford anymore division without collapsing. The regime has insulted countries on every continent on the face of the earth and the world is watching with the expectation that this regime, who has failed its citizenry, will indeed continue its inflammatory political rhetoric. The rampant and alarming use of force on its citizenry and the goal of nuclear armament indicates that this regime cannot be trusted as a legitimate and responsible member of the greater world.
[edited by moderator]
We are moslems and we have a book from Allah called Goran (قرآن) that has been sent to our great prophit Mohammad (pp-uh). in that book Allah says: let the impiouses to die of their madness and nervousness and anger....