The Latest from Iran (31 August): The Debate over the Cabinet

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Video: The Iftar Protests (30 August)
NEW Iran Debate: How Weak (or Strong) is Ahmadinejad?
The Latest from Iran (30 August): Parliament Discusses the Cabinet

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1840 GMT: The National Iranian American Council has picked up on another extract from the meeting between a Parliamentary special committee on detainees and the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani (see 1410 GMT):

Ayatollah Larijani alluded to the necessity to immediately free some prisoners and punish the agents of the [offenses] at Kahrizak and the dormitories, and that judgments or indictments relating to the post-election events must be accurately based on judicial regulations.

Reading this in conjunction with the news of the release of high-profile detainees, albeit on bail (1650 GMT), NIAC concludes provocatively, "It remains to be seen if Larijani plans to engage in a full-blown offensive against the actions of the IRGC and the Shahroudi-era Judiciary, or if these are token attempts to restore legitimacy in the Islamic judiciary."

1650 GMT: University Chancellor Released. Mohammad Zabihi, whom we reported (1450 GMT) had been in detention for almost two weeks, has been released on bail, although his son is still in prison.

Hamzeh Ghalebi, head of the youth branch of Mousavi’s campaign, has also been released after more than 70 days ago in detention. He was pressed to "confession" and was at one of the Tehran trials, although there were no charges against him in the indictment.

1510 GMT: Amidst the attention to the Parliamentary debate, Fars News hasn't forgotten the real enemies of the State: it is making not-too-subtle insinutations about an alleged trip by Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, to London.

1505 GMT: Surprisingly little on today's Parliamentary deliberations over the Cabinet nominees. So far the focus is on the diffculty faced by Sussan Kesharvarz in becoming Minister of Education.

1450 GMT: I wonder if the Supreme Leader's injunction to academics last night to ensure they prepared students for "soft war" covered this case? The chancellor of Tarbiet Modares University in Qom is reported to have been in detention for almost two weeks.

1430 GMT: The Reform Front Coordination Council has stated its deep sorrow and regret regarding post-election events and emphasised that oppression and crimes committed in the name of “preventing a velvet revolution” or “cutting foreign influence” have damaged the dignity and legitimacy of the Iranian regime.

1410 GMT: An Investigation? Kazzem Jalali, a member of the special Parliament committee studying the conditions of post-election detainees, has said, "The committee had a 1 1/2-hour-long meeting with [head of judiciary] Ayatollah [Sadegh] Larijani and briefed him about the committee's formation process, the studies carried out so far as well as the committee's visits [to detention centers]."

Jalali quoted Larijani as saying, "Those in charge of the post-election incidents should be treated in a decisive, legal and judicial manner. They actually damaged the ruling system's reputation."

On Saturday, Sadegh Larijani named his own panel to investigate allegations of abuse. Members are Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejeii, Judiciary First Deputy Chief Ebrahim Raeesi and Judiciary advisor Ali Khalafi.

1350 GMT: A Most Symbolic Case. Tehran Bureau, drawing from Mehr News Agency's quoting of an "informed source", reports that the death of Mohsen Ruholamini, a graduate student detained in Kahrizak and then Evin Prisons, "was caused by physical stress, conditions of imprisonment, repeated blows and harsh physical treatment”.

The case has had huge political signficance, as Ruholamini was the son of Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei. News of the death galvanized "conservative" and "principlist" opposition to President Ahmadinejad's handling of the post-election crisis.

1345 GMT: The move of Saeed Mortazavi from Tehran Chief Prosecutor to Iran's Deputy Prosecutor General is an illustration of how complex the political situation, and its connections with legal matters, has become and how easy it is to jump to misleading conclusions. We've considered this in a separate analysis.

1300 GMT: A Convergence on "Soft Power"? Heydar Moslehi, the nominee for Minister of Intelligence, has told Parliament that a new security will include a strategy "to improve the intelligence capacity to confront the enemies' soft war."

The language is striking in its similarity to the Supreme Leader's speech to academics yesterday, so does this --- after the fight last month over the sacking of Minister of Intelligence Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie --- symbolise a reconcilation of approach between Ayatollah Khamenei and the President?

Earlier, reformist MP Jamshid Ansari said the Intelligence Ministry should "not be affiliated to one branch of power, just implementing the president's instructions". He added that Moslehi, a former member of the Revolutionary Guard, "does not have a minimum of experience of intelligence work and therefore his presence in this complicated system would not be fruitful".

1015 GMT: Battle Begins. Parleman News is featuring the challenge by reformist MP Jamshid Ansari to the nomination of Heydar Moslehi as Minister of Intelligence. Meanwhile, "conservative" MP Ahmad Tavakoli has continued his assault against President Ahmadinejad's legitimacy.

0915 GMT: The Clerical Challenge. This front of the post-election battle has been quieter during Ramadan, but there are two reminders that the contest is not over. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's latest fatwa declared that the legitimacy of a government is validated through people’s free choice; without that choice, it will have neither legitimacy nor acceptance. He stated, presumably as a slap at the Supreme Leader, that there is no instance in history where a Shi’a Imam has used force to gain power or govern.

A statement from Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani also asserted that people’s choice gives legitimacy to the establishment; if the majority of people wish to protest peacefully, it is the duty of the Minister of the Interior to issue the permit. He also aimed, less subtly, at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying that the Assembly of Experts has the final word on the activities of the Supreme Leader.

0830 GMT: Mediawatch. Credit to Michael Slackman of The New York Times, who has raised his game in recent articles. This morning's report covers both the announcement of Sadegh Larijani, the head of judiciary, that a panel would investigate post-election unrest and the debate in Parliament over the President's Cabinet.

Meanwhile, CNN still hasn't noticed the Parliamentary discussions.

0825 GMT: The Green movement website Mowj-e-Sabz, down last night, is back up with front-page stories including a pronouncement by Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri against the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader and Mehdi Karroubi's declaration that the movement will march on Qods Day, 18 September.

0745 GMT: Looks like there will be some leftover scrapping from yesterday before getting to the votes on the individual Ministers. Reformist members of Parliament have raised President Ahmadinejad's appearance with bodyguards, since it is illegal to carry weapons inside the Majlis chamber.

0710 GMT: This, however, was the most ominous comment in the Supreme Leader's address: "All those who have been the victims of the post-election events must know that the establishment has no intention of making concessions. Just as those individuals who openly confront the establishment are legally and justly dealt with, legal and just punishment will also be mete out to the perpetrators of crimes and atrocities."

Four days after saying that Government official who committed post-election abuses would be held to account, has Khamenei moved back toward his President's line of focusing on the punishment of opposition leaders?

0700 GMT: The Supreme Leader gave a lengthy speech to heads of universities and research centres last night.

Most of the address was devoted to thoughts on research and scientific matters, but Ayatollah Khamenei offered headline comments on the post-election situation, "Students are the young officers fighting on this front who with their thoughts, actions and perceptions are present in the scene and who test the scene and act within its framework but university professors are the commanders of this soft confrontation."

Khamenei explained:

The recent issues have placed the country in front of a determining political test. However, the establishment of the Islamic Republic given its high capabilities was able to overcome the situation....Freedom in the Islamic establishment is a true issue defined within an Islamic framework and the Islamic Republic will never consent to or accept the false freedom sought by the West.

0645 GMT: Once more back to the Majlis, the Iranian Parliament, where discussion begins on individual Ministers proposed by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The President had a rough time yesterday, as leading MPs criticised his Administration, lack of policies, and mismanagement. He even suffered ridicule, with jokes from the Speaker, Ali Larijani, and the shouts of "Peach! Peach!" over his professed admiration for his former Minister of Health ("a peach you would like to eat").

Little of that mattered, however, as Parliament was unlikely to deny general support to the Government. The fun starts today, with up to 7 of Ahmadinejad's 21 Ministerial choices in possible trouble. Ten nominees will present themselves to the Majlis today.

The Latest from Iran: Responding to the Trial (26 August)

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume
The 4th Tehran Trial: The Tehran Bureau Summary
Video: The 4th Tehran Trial (25 August)
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani

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2145 GMT: The Tehran Times has published an English summary of the letter from the Rafsanjani office striking back at former 1st Vice President and current Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1225 and 1545 GMT):

“Mr. Mashaii’s record in making incorrect and illogical statements is so clear that there is no need for a reply,” but in light of the fact that the person who has made such fabrications was supposed to become the president’s first vice president and is currently the chief of staff of the Presidential Office, it seems that there is “a very complex conspiracy” to create conflict among the pillars of the establishment, part of the statement read.

The statement also called Rahim-Mashaii’s remarks hallucinations and added that the Supreme Leader had earlier warned the country’s officials about such hallucinations.

2110 GMT: Associated Press has published an English summary of Ayatollah Montazeri's open letter (see 1605 GMT): "The biggest oppression ... is despotic treatment of the people in the name of Islam. I hope the responsible authorities give up the deviant path they are pursuing and restore the trampled rights of the people....I hope authorities...have the courage to announce that this ruling system is neither a republic nor Islamic and that nobody has the right to express opinion or criticism."

2055 GMT: The Rafsanjani Fightback. Remember the former President's delay in passing Mehdi Karroubi's 29 July letter asking for an investigation of abuse claims? Well, after yesterday's trial events, compare and contrast this news: Rafsanjani has passed the cases of two rape victims to the Supreme Leader, to Ayatollah Montazeri, and to Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq.

2000 GMT: Some members of Parliament are objecting to the composition of the special National Security Committee investigating post-election events such as abuse of detainees. Their concern is that three pro-Ahmadinejad members of the committee have already asserted in interviews that the prisoners are in good condition and that there has been no torture, rape, or secret burials.

1945 GMT: Fars News has now published (as has Parleman News) a full summary of the Supreme Leader's statement, initially given to a meeting of the Student Leaders of the Islamic Revolution. It contains the extracts we've noted below, within this context: Ayatollah Khamenei noted incidents such as raids on University dormitories and clashes in the Central Bazaar area soon after the election but put these within the context of the legitimacy in which 85 percent of the population participated.

1915 GMT: Reuters adds an important proviso on the Khamenei statement. Just because he is stepping away from the "velvet revolution" charge does not mean he is giving complete absolution to the demonstrators: "There is no doubt that this movement, whether its leaders know or not, was planned in advance."

The Reuters framing also indicates that the Supreme Leader may not have been rejecting the current trials but drawing a line against any more arrests of key opposition figures.

1900 GMT: Want Some More? How about a possible slap-down of the trials and detentions from the Supreme Leader? "We should not proceed in dealing with those behind the protests based on rumours and guesswork. The judiciary should only give rulings based on solid evidence, not on circumstantial evidence."

And let's add a warning that some of those involved in detentions and violence against protestors may face their own reckoning: "I appreciate the work of the police and Basij [militia] in dealing with the riots, but this does not mean that some of the crimes which occurred will not be dealt with and anyone who is a member of those two who committed a fault should be dealt with."

1845 GMT: An Important Signal? The Supreme Leader has finally emerged after yesterday's trial, and it looks like he may be putting some distance between himself and President Ahmadinejad. In a statement read on state TV, Ayatollah Khamenei declared:

I do not accuse the leaders of the recent incidents to be subordinate to the foreigners, like the United States and Britain, since this issue has not been proven for me. This plot was defeated, since fortunately our enemies still do not understand the issue in Iran. Our enemies were given a slap in face by the Iranian nation, but they are still hopeful and they are pursuing the issue.

It is one thing for the Supreme Leader to rebuff the President's attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani, but this appears to be a message to back off the campaign against the reformists.

1605 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri has re-entered the political arena with an open letter: "For worldly gains, gentlemen have closed their eyes and ears and hearts on all facts. They should have courage and announce that this regime is neither Islamic nor Republic."

1555 GMT: A Crack in the Coverage. Press TV English's website, in contrast to the anti-reformist drumbeat of much of Iran's state media, has an extended feature on the refusal of defendant Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the deputy head of the Islamic Iran Participant Front (see yesterday's updates, 1720 GMT) to confess after yesterday's trial: "As a reformist I have always held clear positions. I have always opposed all forms of illegal activities and my stance has not changed."

1545 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani Fightback. The response of Rafsanjani's office to the statements of former 1st Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1225 GMT) has not only called them pure fabrications but has stated, "Mashai and Ahmadinejad must defend their accusations in an honest and qualified court."

1535 GMT: Who Will Have Dinner with Mahmoud? Understandably, there has been much glee amongst opponents of the President at the news that only 20 of 290 MPs showed up at his "breaking of the fast" meal on Sunday. An EA correspondent sends in a more accurate and more important assessment:

Instead of lobbying the conservative faction as a whole over his Cabinet choices, Ahmadinejad has decided to enter into individual negotiations with MPs from economically challenged areas and remote provinces.

He has been trying to woo these MPs by inviting them for Eftar, the evening meal of Ramadan, at the Presidential residence. However, although the number of these parties have increased, most MPs have given Ahmadinejad the cold shoulder. Only 1/3 of the MPs from economically-challenged areas and remote provinces have broken bread with the president. One of the pro-Ahmadinejad MPs has declared that eight of the suggested ministers lack basic qualifications for attaining confidence votes.

1520 GMT: 24 hours after the latest post-election trial, Mehdi Karroubi has written to the new head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to congratulate him and to express his hope, "considering the sensitive political and social conditions", that Larijani will ensure "the implementation of the Constitution, the legal defense of freedom and citizenship rights, and the maintenance legal justice to defend the dignity of the system".

1240 GMT: EA Public Service Announcement. Initially we were going to bring out a detailed analysis today of the Tehran trial and its impact, but we're watching carefully how certain groups and individuals, especially Hashemi Rafsanjani, manoeuvre. So the special analysis, "Iran Showdown: The Regime's Battle on Three Fronts", will be posted Thursday morning.

1225 GMT: And That's Not All. Rafsanjani, or those allied with him, have also struck back in a statement condemning recent remarks by the former First Vice President and Ahmadinejad ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1210 GMT: Picking up on the Rafsanjani fightback against the charges in the Tehran trial, we should note that Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, did not merely proclaim his innocence. He also turned the allegations of corruption and mismanagement back against the President, claiming that Tehran had "lost" 340 billion tomans (almost $3.5 million) when Ahmadinejad was Mayor of the city.

1130 GMT: The offer of former President Mohammad Khatami has issued a statement criticising "confessions" in the Tehran trials, obtained under "extraordinary circumstances", as invalid and rejecting the specific charges that were made against him. (Reuters has an English-language summary.)

0815 GMT: The Disappearing American. The US media's coverage of the Tehran trial yesterday was poor, and reporters still have no clue about the significance of the testimony about the Rafsanjani family. Even so, there appears to be an extraordinary gap in their coverage.

When French national Clotilde Reiss appeared in an earlier trial, she was the focus of attention from "Western" press. However, when academic Kian Tajbakhsh, a dual Iran-US national, not only appeared as a defendant but testified yesterday, the American media seem to have been asleep. CNN refers to Tajbakhsh only in the context of Saeed Hajjarian's testimony (MSNBC does briefly mention Tajbaksh's statement). The New York Times leaves the academic out of their summary.

We hope to have a full analysis later of how the Iranian regime is using Tajbakhsh, as well as the Iranian defendants, to construct the "velvet revolution" that is supposedly threatening Tehran.

0805 GMT: Irony Alert. Less than 24 hours after Tuesday's trial, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, the former Minster of Intelligence and Iran's new Prosecutor General, has declared: "The performance of justice must start with the judiciary."

0800 GMT: Tuesday's Other Court Appearance. Hossein Karroubi, the son of Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, was summoned to court to answer charges about his involvement in post-election conflict. He later spoke with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: "They brought up several charges against me, including propaganda against the establishment, spreading prostitution, agitating public opinion, attempting to [assist] rioters, and so on. I responded that the country's youth had shed its blood in the streets, and young detainees in prison had been killed in the worst possible ways. We talked about what these things [mean] for the health of the [state]. They let me go after I paid bail."

Hossein Karorubi added that Monday's discussion between his father and members of Parliament over Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of abuse of detainees was "a very good meeting. Both the parliament members and Mr. Karroubi were satisfied....They first have to investigate the four cases, then Mr. Karroubi will present other cases."

0650 GMT: No to a Presidential Bright Idea. Ahmadinejad, in a move which I am sure is unconnected with current politics, proposed that working hours in governmental offices and banks be reduced during Ramadan by more than three hours each day. Speaker of Parliament Larijani squashed the ploy, however, declaring that the proposal was "against the constitution".

0640 GMT: More on the Secret Burials of Protestors. In this video interview with BBC Persian, Hanif Mazroui, the editor-in-chief of Norooz Online, has offered additional evidence of how government officials forced the staff of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to inter 40 bodies of slain demonstrators in mid-July.

Yesterday the managing director of the cemetery was fired by the Government, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has ordered that a group of MPs investigate the allegations.

0630 GMT: The next public stage in the battle? It could be this Friday's prayers in Tehran.

The big event will not be the prayer address, led by Hojatoleslam Sadighi. Instead, it will be the introduction to prayers by President Ahmadinejad. No doubt there will be politics behind (and perhaps in front of) religion, with the President following up on the attacks of the trial and making the case for his Cabinet 48 hours before Parliament begins voting on his Ministerial nominations.

But, further down the religious and political roads, the Friday prayer service to watch will be on the last Friday of Ramadan, which I think will be 18 Spetember. On Qods Day, the prayer leader will be Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0625 GMT: It seems so long ago, but it was only last Saturday that Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement to the Expediency Council prompted feverish speculation on whether he was giving in to the regime, with his call for unity behind the Supreme Leader, or setting up his next manoeuvre. To help clarify matters --- and read into that whatever you wish --- Rafsanjani's website has put up the audio of the former President's statement.

600 GMT: We should get a sense today of the effectiveness of the regime's dramatic move yesterday, using the Tehran trial not only as an all-out assault on the reformist movement but against the challenge of Hashemi Rafsanjani. We're working on a full analysis for later today. (Here are a couple of teasers: did the Supreme Leader support the assault? And how will the conservatives and principlists, with a majority inside Parliament and powerful figures outside it, react given their recent disquiet with President Ahmadinejad's approach on detentions?)

Meanwhile, another clue from the trial pointing to Rafsanjani as a primary target for Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard. The journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, a key figure in the Kargozaran party linked to Rafsanjani, was brought out again --- he had "confessed" on national television after the first trial --- to attack the former President's June letter to the Supreme Leader that raised concerns about manipulation of the election. The "criticism was inappropriate" and "not suitable for national publication".

The Latest from Iran (21 August): Political Battles

NEW Video: The Sohrab Protests (20 August)
EA Soundcheck: Assessing Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq
The Latest from Iran (20 August): Grinding to a Halt

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2035 GMT: We had heard rumours all day about this story but, given its explosive nature, had held off posting without confirmation. It has now appeared on a "reformist site", Norooz, and has been recommended by the Facebook page of Zahra Rahnavard, Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife.

A member of staff of a Tehran cemetery told Norooz that on both 12 July and 15 July, the bodies of tens of protestors were brought in without any identification, secretly and under strict security. Staff were forced to issue compulsory burial licences, and the bodies were interred in Section 302 of the cemetery.

2030 GMT: We had reported earlier on protests last night in Tehran (1015 GMT), but it is only after seeing some video that a reader recommended that we realised quite how powerful those demonstrations, both against President Ahmadinejad and in honour of slain protestors such as Sohrab Arabi and Neda Agha Soltan, were. We have posted the video in a separate entry.

2010 GMT: Follow-up on Kayhan. It looks like the "hard-line" newspaper will escape suspension. Tabnak reports that the Tehran Prosecutor's office has denied accounts that the Media Court ordered Kayhan's temporary closure after its editor twice failed to answer court summons. (An English-language summary is on Tehran Bureau.)

1945 GMT: More extracts from the significant event of the day, Friday prayers in Qom (1445 GMT), where Ayatollah Amini criticised the Government:

You are not one another’s enemy. You are all in favor of the establishment, Islam and the rule of the Just Jurisprudent. Why don’t you, instead of talking to the enemy, talk to one another and find a solution to this disunity?

I am not talking about one party or the other… You, as the elite, must sit down and talk. If injustice has really been done to people, deal with it. If an innocent has been incarcerated, release him. And if someone has been shamed [publicly], apologize to him, and properly deal with those who are really guilty.

How must I advise you to set aside disunity for it to register? We are not enemies and our solidarity is possible. Resolve this issue through dialogue and stop giving the enemy something to talk about.

If you want to mend the situation as caring individuals, end the conflict and prevent it from expanding.

1445 GMT: News is emerging that the significant Friday prayers address was not in Tehran but from Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini in Qom. Amini demanded the release of all innocent prisoners and comforted those who had been unfairly victimised by recent events. Reportedly, the sermon has caused supporters of the pro-Government Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi to back away from plans to protest against Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i and his now-famous video condemnation of the regime.

Amini's address follows his meeting this week, with other clerics, with the Supreme Leader, reportedly to raise criticisms about the role of Khamenei's son Mojtaba in political affairs.

1130 GMT: Officially, Not a Peach. President Ahmadinejad's office has removed his reference to former Minister of Health Kamran Lankarani as "a peach one wants to eat" (see 1000 GMT) from the official transcript of his televised broadcast.

1030 GMT: Iran Republic News Agency does not mention Jannati's challenge to arrest opposition leaders although it says he pointed out "the consequences of slander".

1025 GMT: Jannati Answers. In our first update (0645 GMT), we advised, "Watch...for how far Jannati pushes for punishment of the "ringleaders" of the protest."

Here's the response from Friday prayers in Tehran: "Riots are our main issue today ... Some people were arrested and some were not. Why weren't the leaders behind the riots arrested? ... Their arrest should be the first thing that the judiciary must do."

1015 GMT: A bit more on the broadcast: a reader points us to this from the Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz, "There were rooftop protests all over the country and especially the Apadana area in Tehran [the neighbourhood of Sohrab Arabi, who was killed on 15 June but whose death was not confirmed for a month]. People gathered ...in streets in protest and were chanting 'Death to Dictator'. This was in solidarity with Sohrab’s family, as it was also the 40th day anniversary of his martyrdom."

1005 GMT: Ahmadinejad - Compromise or Showdown? There is one clue in last night's Presidential broadcast for this question, highlighted in an EA Soundcheck yesterday. Ahmadinejad said that, if the Ministry of Intelligence had done its job properly, there would have been no post-election conflict.

That's a clear slap at former Minister of Intelligence Ejeie and Iran's judiciary, which has just appointed him as Prosecutor General. But it also is a shot in the ongoing battle over who controls the Ministry, amidst the firing of up to 25 key officials. Look for a response from "conservative" and "principlist" opponents of Ahmadinejad.

1000 GMT: It is a relatively slow news day in Iran. We're awaiting the summary of Ayatollah Jannati's Friday prayer address in Tehran, and there has been surprisingly little reaction to President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast promoting his Cabinet choices.

We'll take advantage of the pause to feature the "hot" story on the Internet about the broadcast, noting the President's remarks about his outgoing Minister of Health, Kamran Lankarani: "In his TV appearance last night, Ahmadinejad praised him as one of the most able administrators of his previous cabinet and said: 'I have a special personal interest in him, a pious and faithful young man. Once I said he is like a peach, one wants to eat him!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQUwNDG1Tdc[/youtube]

I leave further interpretation and analysis up to EA readers.

0725 GMT: Picking up on another (largely unreported) story from yesterday. A Parliamentary Commission member has warned that Mir Hossein Mousavi's proposed "Green Path of Hope" political front will not receive a license for public activity.

0700 GMT: Last night's EA Soundcheck podcast includes a lengthy discussion of the pressure on President Ahmadinejad, both from inside the "establishment" and from public protest. General verdict? The President is in a long-term battle. I don't think he'll win, but before that comes the urgent question, will he offer any compromise or press even harder (possibly in co-operation with the Revolutionary Guard) for a showdown?

One clue to an answer: see if next Tuesday's fourth round of trials of political detainees goes ahead and how much publicity it gets in state media.

0645 GMT: With Ramadan starting tomorrow, this could be the last full day for political manoeuvres for the next few weeks. At the same time, nothing can defer the manoeuvres over President Ahmadinejad's submission of his Cabinet choices to the Iran Parliament.

And the challenge may have another dimension. An EA correspondent has reviewed the speech that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani gave to the Iranian Society of Engineers, mentioned in yesterday's updates. He notes that Larijani offered a response to Mehdi Karroubi's initiative on the abuse of detainees.

On Wednesday, Karroubi sent an official letter to Larijani asking him to arrange a meeting including Ahmadinejad, the head of Iran's judiciary, Mohammad Larijani, the head of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the Prosecutor General, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, where Karroubi would produce his graphic evidence of the abuses.

Larijani said yesterday that he is willing to participate in such a meeting, "We do not want to preserve any secrecy in this regard and hide any evidence from the public." So will the Speaker not only willingness but press for the gathering, knowing this could be the issue that bends if not breaks the Ahmadinejad Government?

On the public front, Ayatollah Jannati will lead Friday prayers in Tehran today. Expect a hard-line address continuing the recent theme, after last week's replacement of Hashemi Rafsanjani by Ahmad Khatami, supporting the Supreme Leader and Government and deriding the foreign-inspired protest movement. Watch, however, for how far Jannati pushes for punishment of the "ringleaders" of the protest.

The Latest from Iran (20 August): Grinding to a Halt

The Latest from Iran (19 August): Challenges in Parliament and from Prisons

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1810 GMT: Recognise Us Because We're Really Nice. There have been signs this week that the Ahmadinejad Government would be more flexible in its position on the nuclear programme, and today this came from the Associated Press, via unnamed diplomats:

Iran has lifted a ban and allowed UN inspectors to visit a nearly-completed nuclear reactor. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency visited the reactor in Arak after a year-long ban...Iran agreed last week to expand uranium enrichment monitoring of the site.

1735 GMT: Ahmadinejad and the IRGC Factor. As we wait for the fallout from the President's televised speech on his Cabinet selections, here's how American anlaysts get it right. And wrong.

The appointment of Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense has been noticed because he was commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps in the late 1980s/early 1990s. So, it is said, Vahidi's appointment indicates a consolidation of the relationship between the President and the IRGC in the face of opposition not only from "reformists" but from "conservative" and "principlist" elements.

Right.

And, the analysts continue, this indicates that Ahmadinejad plans to continue and maybe accelerate Iran's material support for pro-Iranian parties and militias in the Middle East.

Wrong.

This, of course, may be a consequence over time of Vahidi's appointment but to assert --- without any evidence --- that the external dimension is more important than the President's manoeuvres in an internal crisis smacks of a view that revolves around Washington, rather than Tehran.

1725 GMT: Worst. Claim. Ever: It's All Hillary's Fault. Iran's police chief of police Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam has said that the "confessions" of political detainees must be authentic because their mastermind, Hillary Clinton, has openly revealed their plans: "Some say that the police has extracted confessions by force, but I tell them: No-one has extracted confession out of Mrs. Clinton, yet she reveals all issues freely."

While Ahmadi-Moqaddam's statement should be called out as a crass cover-up of the state's treatment of prisoners, it does point to the lack of wisdom in Clinton's posturing --- motivated primarily to counter domestic charges that the Administration had stood back from post-election events --- when she told CNN earlier this month that the US Government did much "behind the scenes" for Iranian protesters.

1450 GMT: Reuters has now picked up on the problems for Ahmadinejad's Ministerial appointments in Parliament, adding this quote from Speaker Ali Larijani on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: "Those nominated by the president for government posts must have sufficient expertise and experience, otherwise a great deal of the country's energy would be wasted."

1410 GMT: Creating Some Political Space? Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking to the Islamic Society of Engineers, has declared that the primary duty of Government is "justice so human beings may perfect themselves" and that it was essential for people to have "economic, cultural, and political mobility".

1340 GMT: Tonight's the Night. After the stop-start process of naming his Cabinet, President Ahmadinejad takes to the national airwaves in a broadcast just after the 9 p.m. news. He may do so with a bit of nervousness: protestors are planning to drown out the President with "Allahu Akhbars", and Ahmadinejad's previous broadcast didn't go so well. Remember his defeat at the hands of the Giant Moth? (If you missed it, here's the video.)

1150 GMT: Another Shot at Ahmadinejad. Jomhoori Eslami reports that an Iranian court has temporarily suspended former First Vice President and current Presdential Chief of Staff Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai for two months because of charges of financial misconduct.

1140 GMT: The Fight Begins? The Deputy Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has warned that at leave five of President Ahmadinejad's choices for Ministers may not receive votes of confidence. Reuters has English-language summary of report.

1100 GMT: No Newspaper is Safe. Even the hard-line "conservative" Kayhan could be banned from newsstands. According to the Iranian Labor News Agency, the same court that banned Etemade Melli has ordered Saeed Mortazavi, the Tehran Prosecutor General, to halt the publication of Kayhan, because of the failure of its editor, Hossein Shariatmadari, to answer two court summons. Shariatmadari was taken to court by Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti and others over the "publication of repeated lies" against the candidate.

0720 GMT: The English-language version of the Iran Parliament website has just released the names of the 18 ministers whom it says were submitted by President Ahmadinejad to the Parliament "on Wednesday". There are no surprises amongst the names, which we revealed in yesterday's updates.

0620 GMT: Reading Another Change. We reported yesterday that the new head of Iran's judiciary, Saeed Larijani, had given a clear thumb-in-the-eye to the President with the appointment of Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, the Minister of Intelligence fired by Ahmadinejad, as Iran's Prosecutor General.

Larijani is also replacing Tehran's chief prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi, with Morteza Bakhtiari, the former head of Iran's prison service and former Governor of Isfahan. The timing is a bit curious, since Mortazavi was seen as the legal force behind the prosecution of post-election political detainees, and we are in the middle of the Tehran trials.

So is Larijani asserting his authority against the President? Or is the simple explanatio n that Mortazavi is moving to a post in Ahmadinejad's executive? And will there be an impact, short-term or long-term, on detentions and prosecutions?

0540 GMT: Meanwhile, a foreign-policy breakthrough for the President and his Government received surprisingly little attention. Syrian President Bashir al-Assad was in Tehran for a chat.

The cover story was that Assad came to Iran to broker the release of French national Clotilde Reiss, arrested and still awaiting trial on bail. Iranian state media preferred the image of election legitimacy, quoting Assad's greeting to Ahmadinejad, “I’ve come here today to personally convey my warm congratulations to you and the Iranian nation. I believe what happened in Iran was an important development and a great lesson to foreigners."

The overriding significance, however, is in the Associated Press headline, "Iran’s supreme leader reinforces Syria alliance." Ahmadinejad, who has been ostracised internationally since his trip to Moscow just after the election, will get a symbolic boost; however, it is unclear whether Assad was reinforcing the alliance or holding it in suspension. Before 12 June, it appeared that the Tehran-Damascus relationship was an important influence on questions from the Israel-Palestine dynamic (and the in-fighting within the Palestinian leadership), the situation in Lebanon, and the wider state of play (political and economic) between Iran and Arab States. How much of it that continues while Ahmadinejad's real rather than symbolic legitimacy is still doubted?

0500 GMT: We took a break last night to recharge our batteries and return this morning not to news but to two non-events.

The first non-event was President Ahmadinejad's to formally submit his Ministerial nominations to Parliament by yesterday's deadline. In the morning, all appeared to be almost complete: Mehr News was reporting three names remained to be confirmed, and then Tabnak said only one, the Minister of Justice. At 1:22 p.m. local time, a few hours before the deadline, the English-language site of the Parliament recapped the news.

And then nothing. There was a clue that all was not well when the President's Wednesday night national broadcast was postponed for 24 hours but, otherwise, updates stopped as the deadline came and went. (Press TV's website is still stuck on its Wednesday morning headline, "More Ahmadinejad cabinet nominees revealed".) Then, just after 10 p.m., the Farsi-language version of the Parliament website reported simply, "The letter of the President still has not come."

No one is offering the reason for the delay, but the obvious speculation is that some of the names in the list leaked by the media were unacceptable to members of Parliament. And so we enter today, ready to analyse but with no way forward yet on the questions: will Ahmadinejad make concessions and change some of his selections? Will there be any punishment for his failure to meet the deadline? Will any high-ranking "conservative" or "principlist" MPs come out publicly against the President?

However, it is the other non-event, largely missed by media, which is occupying us this morning. Yesterday the Executive Committee of the Assembly of Experts postponed the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due in about 10-12 days. Our question from yesterday's update, "Who pushed for the delay?", is still unanswered. To get an idea of the stakes involved in this answer, consider the make-up of the Executive Committee: Hashemi Rafsanjani aligned against Ahmadinejead supporters Hashemi Shahroudi (former Head of Judiciary), Mohammad Yazdi (Rafsanjani's foe within the Assembly), Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi (Prosecutor General), and Ahmad Khatami (the hard-line temporary leader of Friday prayers in Tehran).

An EA correspondent offers this assessment, leading to an important but so far overlooked point:

The excuse that the Assembly meeting was delayed because of Ramadan [which starts on Saturday] appears as exactly that, an excuse and nothing more. Parliament will debate and possibly block Ahmadinejad's ministerial nominees well into Ramadan, Government will carry on business, and I am sure the trials will not go into recess for a month.

So what seems to be the case here is someone simply unwilling to have the session happen so soon. The latest letters sent by the former MPs and the Qom ulama [clerics] might have precipitated the case. They either blew the lid off Rafsanjani's machinations or persuaded the Supreme Leader to force a postponement in order to work on the Assembly members and make sure they don't spell trouble for him. At any rate, it just adds to all the shocks that have hit the orderly functioning of state institutions after June 12.

Amidst all the demonstrations, the detentions and trials, and the political machinations, the Iranian Government is effectively suspended. And the longer that situation persists, the more the question emerges: when is there a breaking point, not of showdown in the streets or in the Parliament, but in day-to-day life?

The Latest from Iran (19 August): Challenges in Parliament and from Prisons

NEW Is Rafsanjani (or Ahmadinejad) A Spent Force? The Sequel
Text of Latest Karroubi Statement “You Will Not Force Me Into Silence”

The Latest from Iran (18 August): Which Way for the Government?

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1700 GMT: More, Much More on that Assembly of Experts Meeting. The Executive Committee's agenda appears to have been a delay in the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due to take place within the next 10-12 days, for a month because of Ramadan.
This rules out any quick intervention by the Assembly in the political crisis.

But the big question: who asked for the delay? Was it the head of the Committee, Hashemi Rafsanjani, to give himself time for his next moves? Or was it the other members --- former head of judiciary Hashemi Shahroudi, Mohammad Yazdi, Prosecutor General Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi, and Ahmad Khatami --- all of whom are more supportive of President Ahmadinejad?

1605 GMT: The Executive Committee of the Assembly of Experts has met, but there are no details of the agenda or content of the discussion.

1550 GMT: There is still no news on whether the President has formally submitted his Ministerial nomination to Parliament.

1415 GMT: Report that Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, an activist close to Mohammad Khatami, will be released from detention today. Journalist Zhila Bani Yaghoub has been released on $200,000 bail.

1405 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to confirm that he is ready to present his evidence of the abuse of detainees.

1230 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz claims that a group of senior clerics have met the Supreme Leader and criticised the behaviour of his son, Mojtaba, but "to no avail".

1225 GMT: Did the President Miss the Deadline? The official Parliamentary News Agency has an item at 1530 local time (1100 GMT), 30 minutes before the deadline for the President to submit his Cabinet nominations. Aboutourabi Fard, the anti-Ahmadinejad Deputy Speaker, says no letter had been received.

It is now almost an hour after the deadline.

1220 GMT: The new head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is moving briskly with appointments: Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has become Prosecutor General, replacing Ghorban Ali Dorri-Najafabadi.

Hmmm....Would this be the same Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie fired as Minister of Intelligence by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a few weeks ago? Perhaps someone should give the President the latest news.

1130 GMT: EA source says that President Ahmadinejad's nationally-televised address, announcing his Ministerial nominations, has been postponed until tomorrow night after 9 p.m. local time.

1055 GMT: The Rah-e-Sabz website, quoting "reliable sources from Tehran", reports that Karroubi is resurrecting his plan from 2005 for the "Saba" satellite channel.

The plan was shelved four years ago after direct intervention by Ali Larijani, then chair of the National Security Council, who deemed the plan "an act against national security". Karroubi then founded the Etemade Melli newspaper to reach the masses.

Now Karroubi is threatening to get serious with the satellite channel should the regime's ban on the newspaper remain in place. Initial launch preparations are underway and "a group of film makers based inside the country" is willing to take part. The headquarters would be set up in another Mideast country (an EA correspondent suggests the United Arab Emirates), and the goal would be to air the "real news" that the state media neglects.

1045 GMT: To the Wire. Mehr News says President Ahmadinejad has still not decided on the appointments of three Ministers. Tabnak, however, says only one post (Justice) is still to be determined for the final submission to Parliament. The names of those Ministers who have been proposed, in both articles, are those posted earlier in Press TV/Fars accounts (see 0900 GMT).

0940 GMT: Saham News claims that a commission is investigating the Mosharekat and  Mojahedin political parties with a view to amending the law to prohibt contacts and exchange of views and information with foreign embassies and acceptance of foreign financial aid. An EA source confirms that this process started about six weeks ago.

0900 GMT: The President's Cabinet? Press TV, citing Fars News Agency, reveals Ministerial nominees. Among the appointments: Manouchehr Mottaki remains as Foreign Minister, Kamran Daneshjou at Science, Research and Technology, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar as Minister of Interior, Mohammad Hosseini leading Ministry of Culture and the Islamic Guidance, and Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense.

0855 GMT: And Yet More Support. The Association of Iran Alumni and Union of Islamic Associations of University Students have declared that they will not abandon Karroubi and other reformist leaders.

0850 GMT: The Green Wave of Support. We reported yesterday on the "reformist" front coming out in support of Mehdi Karroubi's position on abuse of detainees. Norooz have now published the text of the statement from the Islamic Iran Participation Front.

0820 GMT: Clarification on Reformist-Clerics Meeting (0740 GMT). Another EA correspondent explains, "Javad Shahrestani is not an Ayatollah, and most probably not even a mujtahid. He runs sistani.org from Qom and is the person who brought the Internet to the holy city and transformed it into a technology hub. However, he is not high on religious credentials. The fact that people refer to him as 'Ayatollah' underlies the attempt to indicate the higher level of these figures close to the opposition."

0740 GMT: A reader lets us know that the full English summary, provided by a Twitter activist, of Ayatollah Sanei's attack on the regime (full video in separate entry) is now available on the Internet.

0730 GMT: More Opposition Moves. An EA correspondent has verified news we saw yesterday, "The reformists Abdollah Nouri, Gholamhosein Karbaschi [former Mayor of Tehran and top advisor to Karroubi], and other reformists have been having separate meetings with Ayatollah Montazeri and Ayatollah Shahrestani, the son-in-law of Ayatollah Sistani [the leading Shia cleric in Iraq]. These reformists have requested that the Shia high clergy become more involved in the current issues of the country."

0650 GMT: We asked moments ago "whether some in the Government have realised that the high-profile hard line may be counter-productive".

Hmmm, maybe not. Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, the Supreme Leader's liaison with the Revolutionary Guard, said yesterday, "[The] leaders of the recent unrest are still out of prison." Rounding up those leaders "could be the will of the nation and the media".

Saeedi also defended the regime's high-profile display of "confessions" by figures such as former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi:

These confessions were of utmost importance, since they shed light on the core of "the ordeal" and the rings linked to it....It was not unexpected that the foreigners would take us for the likes of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. However, it was strange that some of our compatriots were deceived by the enemies and played by their rules."

0630 GMT: Deadline day for President Ahmadinejad, as he has to present his selections for Ministerial posts to Parliament. The furour over the President's relations with the legislature, which had peaked with controversies over the 1st Vice President and Ministry of Intelligence, has quieted in the last week, but several key MPs have warned that Ahmadinejad must put forward candidates with expertise and judgement.

On another front, our Enduring America debate over the challenge of Hashemi Rafsanjani continues. After yesterday's spirited discussion between two of our correspondents and our readers, we've posted a sequel with the views of a third EA analyst. There is a clear split in our community on not only Rafsanjani's position but that of the President: some see Rafsanjani playing a clever game as Ahmadinejad loudly struggles, others see the President in the ascendancy. And, thanks to our readers, important factors such as the Revolutionary Guard, the "principlist" political bloc, and the Army have also been brought into the arena.

For me, however, the emerging story yesterday was the clear signal that the Green opposition has not gone away. While the organisation of public protest is still fragmented, many key secular and clerical figures rallied around Mehdi Karroubi's demand that the Government investigate and punish those responsible for abuse of detainees. Karroubi reiterated the protest in his statement, "You Will Not Force Me Into Silence", and Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, and the "reformist" front were among those who offered high-profile endorsements. These complemented the "hot" Internet story of the day, the video of Ayatollah Sane'i's scathing attack on the regime.

As I've said on several occasions, the regime may be keeping the opposition vibrant --- ironically --- by trying to break it with detentions, confessions, and trials. Today's planned 4th trial of post-election political prisoners has been postponed until next Tuesday, raising the question as to whether some in the Government have realised that the high-profile hard line may be counter-productive.

If this is just a pause, however (and one of the rumours yesterday was that politician Saeed Hajjarian would be amongst the defendants), we will not only be considering the President's Cabinet and Rafsanjani's future. The Green Path of Hope, which Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami joined yesterday, may be more than a symbol.