The Latest from Iran (27 August): Catching Breath

NEW Iran: The Regime’s Knockout Punch? Not Quite.
NEW Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Talks, Threats, and Propaganda

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2120 GMT: Well, unless the unexpected happens, it looks like all will be quiet until tomorrow morning's setpiece of President Ahmadinejad's speech introducing Friday prayers in Tehran.

2110 GMT: We took an evening break to recharge but, to be honest, we've returned to a standstill --- no  political developments.

There is, however, curious (and darkly humourous) goings-on at Press TV. The website has repackaged the Supreme Leader's Wednesday night speech under the headline, "Leader urges support for Ahmadinejad's strong suits", and the first paragraph: "The Leader of the Islamic Revolution sheds light on the recent course of events in Iran, urging the nation to stand by the administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."

That opening is superimposed on paragraphs 2-9, which are truer to the original account of the speech (and thus not so warm towards Ahmadinejad, with the exception of one sentence --- not included here --- which has been heavily edited and thus distorted):

Be sure that no crime or atrocity will go unpunished, but with issues of that importance the judiciary should rule based on solid evidence....The establishment [the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran] should take broad actions only after taking into consideration all aspects of the issues, and avoiding assessing the situation only from one dimension....Irregularities and atrocities have been committed during the aftermath of the elections, crimes that will be certainly dealt with....Irregularities and atrocities have been committed during the aftermath of the elections, crimes that will be certainly dealt with.

Question: who made Press TV stick on a "better" headline and opening paragraph, which have little to do with the rest of the article?

1730 GMT: Catching Up With The Story. We had a pop at Michael Slackman and The New York Times earlier today (1320 GMT), so it's only fair to note that Slackman is now up to speed with developments, including the Supreme Leader's statement last night. In "Iran’s Supreme Leader Softens Accusations Against Reformists", just posted on the Internet, and presumably to be published in the print edition in the morning, Slackman writes:

Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments were the latest in a series of small, if significant, steps that appear aimed at slowing President Ahmadinejad’s drive to consolidate power and define members of the reform movement as enemies of the state.

Slackman's article should also be read as the prevailing opinion of US-based analysts like Abbas Milani and Karim Sadjadpour, both of whom are quoted.

1500 GMT: It's All Because the West Hates Me. There is one political statement to note this afternoon. At his eftar dinner breaking the daily Ramadan fast yesterday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad explained the cause of the post-election crisis: "[Western countries] have been humiliated in the last four years and, therefore, wanted to take revenge by encouraging continued unrest....Like you have been slapped in the face by the Iranian people in the last three decades, you have also been slapped this time."

The President then offered a deal to his enemies, "Although they [the West] did not act rationally, I still hope they can make amends for their mistake by making a global commitment not to interfere in Iran anymore."

Hmm....Apparently, Ahmadinejead hadn't received the message that, just before his dinner, the Supreme Leader was denying that the Western countries were behind "continued unrest".

1400 GMT: By far the quietist day in the post-election crisis, with next to nothing coming out of Iran on political and legal manoeuvres. The reformist site Norooz is highlighting new photographs of the alleged site of secret burials of 40 protestors at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery. Reuters is running, from Parleman News, the statement from an unnamed MP: ""Raping of some detainees with a baton and soda bottle has been proven to us."

1320 GMT: How Twitter is Overtaking Mainstream Media. I've just had an interesting exchange with some correspondents, appropriately enough via Twitter, on its use for reporting and analysis. My position is that Twitter is invaluable in finding and putting together and interpreting the latest news, as opposed to the position --- held by some "mainstream" broadcasters --- that it is primarily useful to give the reactions of readers/viewers, since it is unreliable as a source for news.

In that context, a note. Enduring America, following up Twitter leads, first reported on the Supreme Leader's important speech to student leaders at 1845 GMT yesterday. We had an interim analysis up by 1915 GMT, and it was a key part of today's in-depth analysis, "The Regime's Knockout Punch? Not Quite", posted at 0655 GMT.

CNN's first mention of the Supreme Leader's speech? "US, UK Not Meddling in Iran", published at 1256 GMT today.

1040 GMT: US Media to Iranian Protestors, "You're Pawns in Our Nuclear Game."

It's bad enough that supposedly top-quality US media are now well behind the story in Iran. In today's New York Times, Michael Slackman writes that "aides to Iran’s president lashed out publicly at two former presidents" on Wednesday but still seems unaware that Hashemi Rafsanjani was attacked the day before in the Tehran trial.

What's really unsettling, however, is that The Washington Post isn't bothered any longer to consider the story as one of Iranians seeking changes to their Islamic Republic. At least Slackman and The New York Times tried today to assess the political situation --- the Post doesn't bother with an article.

Instead, the Post launches into an editorial attack instead on the "sickening spectacle" of the "Stalinist mass show trial". It does so, however, not out of concern for the rights of the defendants, detainees, or demonstrators. Three days ago, the newspaper seized on dubious propaganda spread by "Western officials" to demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency disclose information supposedly proving that Iran is pursuing The Bomb. Today, for the newspaper, any concern is reduced to that all-important nuclear question and "the challenge for Washington in engaging with a regime of questionable legitimacy, dubious lines of authority and an uncertain grip on power".

1010 GMT: Professor Alireza Farshi has been released on bail from detention. It is also reported that lawyer Abdolfatah Soltani is free on bail after 72 days in prison.

0900 GMT: To be honest, after the dramatic twists of the last 48 hours, there is very little to report this morning. So we've concentrated on our analysis of the Ahmadinejad Government's failure to knock out the opposition with Tuesday's trial and on another developing story, the propaganda around Iran's nuclear programme ahead of an important international meeting on 14 September.

One very disturbing incident to note, however, with the sudden re-appearance of the blog of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi (pictured). It's an obvious propaganda move by the Government, with Abtahi generously allowed to resume his writing while still in detention: "I said, 'Anything that I write must be my own. You can only tell me what things I should NOT write.' [The interrogator] agreed."

Maryam at Keeping the Change reprints the blog entry with a short, sharp analysis: "While the blog entry does include a call for the release of the political prisoners, the overall pro-Establishment message seems clear....The government is likely to keep Abtahi in detention and blogging, for some time."

Iran: Government Says, "Overweight? Try Prison"

The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

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From Press TV, "Ahmadinejad aide says jail improves health condition":

Amid concerns over health conditions and treatment of Iran's post-vote detainees, an aide to the Iranian president moves to defuse the controversy by saying that serving time in prison helps you understand the importance of keeping your weight under control.

Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's advisor for press affairs, addressed concerns over health conditions of jailed Reformist figure Mohammed-Ali Abtahi.

Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a Reformist cleric, appeared in one of Iran's mass post-election trials saying that the three opposition leaders - Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani formed an alliance in which they "promised to always back each other up" in their efforts to rob the presidency from its 'legitimate winner.'

Following the televised trial, photos of Abtahi circulated the media with human rights activists and opposition figures questioning the credibility of the confessions made by Abtahi who had lost visible weight.

In an interview on Saturday, President Ahmadinejad's advisor explained why the Reformist figure looked so frail during his appearance at court in Tehran.

"It is only natural for a person who has gained an excessive amount of weight to come to his senses in prison that being overweight is not good for your mental of physical health," Javanfekr reasoned.

"Maybe Mr. Abtahi has seized this opportunity and made an effort to lose weight," he was quoted as saying by Tabnak.

The jailed cleric was an advisor to defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi and is accused of provoking and taking part in protests in the capital, Tehran.

The Latest from Iran (19 August): Challenges in Parliament and from Prisons

NEW Is Rafsanjani (or Ahmadinejad) A Spent Force? The Sequel
Text of Latest Karroubi Statement “You Will Not Force Me Into Silence”

The Latest from Iran (18 August): Which Way for the Government?

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1700 GMT: More, Much More on that Assembly of Experts Meeting. The Executive Committee's agenda appears to have been a delay in the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due to take place within the next 10-12 days, for a month because of Ramadan.
This rules out any quick intervention by the Assembly in the political crisis.

But the big question: who asked for the delay? Was it the head of the Committee, Hashemi Rafsanjani, to give himself time for his next moves? Or was it the other members --- former head of judiciary Hashemi Shahroudi, Mohammad Yazdi, Prosecutor General Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi, and Ahmad Khatami --- all of whom are more supportive of President Ahmadinejad?

1605 GMT: The Executive Committee of the Assembly of Experts has met, but there are no details of the agenda or content of the discussion.

1550 GMT: There is still no news on whether the President has formally submitted his Ministerial nomination to Parliament.

1415 GMT: Report that Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, an activist close to Mohammad Khatami, will be released from detention today. Journalist Zhila Bani Yaghoub has been released on $200,000 bail.

1405 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to confirm that he is ready to present his evidence of the abuse of detainees.

1230 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz claims that a group of senior clerics have met the Supreme Leader and criticised the behaviour of his son, Mojtaba, but "to no avail".

1225 GMT: Did the President Miss the Deadline? The official Parliamentary News Agency has an item at 1530 local time (1100 GMT), 30 minutes before the deadline for the President to submit his Cabinet nominations. Aboutourabi Fard, the anti-Ahmadinejad Deputy Speaker, says no letter had been received.

It is now almost an hour after the deadline.

1220 GMT: The new head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is moving briskly with appointments: Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has become Prosecutor General, replacing Ghorban Ali Dorri-Najafabadi.

Hmmm....Would this be the same Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie fired as Minister of Intelligence by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a few weeks ago? Perhaps someone should give the President the latest news.

1130 GMT: EA source says that President Ahmadinejad's nationally-televised address, announcing his Ministerial nominations, has been postponed until tomorrow night after 9 p.m. local time.

1055 GMT: The Rah-e-Sabz website, quoting "reliable sources from Tehran", reports that Karroubi is resurrecting his plan from 2005 for the "Saba" satellite channel.

The plan was shelved four years ago after direct intervention by Ali Larijani, then chair of the National Security Council, who deemed the plan "an act against national security". Karroubi then founded the Etemade Melli newspaper to reach the masses.

Now Karroubi is threatening to get serious with the satellite channel should the regime's ban on the newspaper remain in place. Initial launch preparations are underway and "a group of film makers based inside the country" is willing to take part. The headquarters would be set up in another Mideast country (an EA correspondent suggests the United Arab Emirates), and the goal would be to air the "real news" that the state media neglects.

1045 GMT: To the Wire. Mehr News says President Ahmadinejad has still not decided on the appointments of three Ministers. Tabnak, however, says only one post (Justice) is still to be determined for the final submission to Parliament. The names of those Ministers who have been proposed, in both articles, are those posted earlier in Press TV/Fars accounts (see 0900 GMT).

0940 GMT: Saham News claims that a commission is investigating the Mosharekat and  Mojahedin political parties with a view to amending the law to prohibt contacts and exchange of views and information with foreign embassies and acceptance of foreign financial aid. An EA source confirms that this process started about six weeks ago.

0900 GMT: The President's Cabinet? Press TV, citing Fars News Agency, reveals Ministerial nominees. Among the appointments: Manouchehr Mottaki remains as Foreign Minister, Kamran Daneshjou at Science, Research and Technology, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar as Minister of Interior, Mohammad Hosseini leading Ministry of Culture and the Islamic Guidance, and Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense.

0855 GMT: And Yet More Support. The Association of Iran Alumni and Union of Islamic Associations of University Students have declared that they will not abandon Karroubi and other reformist leaders.

0850 GMT: The Green Wave of Support. We reported yesterday on the "reformist" front coming out in support of Mehdi Karroubi's position on abuse of detainees. Norooz have now published the text of the statement from the Islamic Iran Participation Front.

0820 GMT: Clarification on Reformist-Clerics Meeting (0740 GMT). Another EA correspondent explains, "Javad Shahrestani is not an Ayatollah, and most probably not even a mujtahid. He runs sistani.org from Qom and is the person who brought the Internet to the holy city and transformed it into a technology hub. However, he is not high on religious credentials. The fact that people refer to him as 'Ayatollah' underlies the attempt to indicate the higher level of these figures close to the opposition."

0740 GMT: A reader lets us know that the full English summary, provided by a Twitter activist, of Ayatollah Sanei's attack on the regime (full video in separate entry) is now available on the Internet.

0730 GMT: More Opposition Moves. An EA correspondent has verified news we saw yesterday, "The reformists Abdollah Nouri, Gholamhosein Karbaschi [former Mayor of Tehran and top advisor to Karroubi], and other reformists have been having separate meetings with Ayatollah Montazeri and Ayatollah Shahrestani, the son-in-law of Ayatollah Sistani [the leading Shia cleric in Iraq]. These reformists have requested that the Shia high clergy become more involved in the current issues of the country."

0650 GMT: We asked moments ago "whether some in the Government have realised that the high-profile hard line may be counter-productive".

Hmmm, maybe not. Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, the Supreme Leader's liaison with the Revolutionary Guard, said yesterday, "[The] leaders of the recent unrest are still out of prison." Rounding up those leaders "could be the will of the nation and the media".

Saeedi also defended the regime's high-profile display of "confessions" by figures such as former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi:

These confessions were of utmost importance, since they shed light on the core of "the ordeal" and the rings linked to it....It was not unexpected that the foreigners would take us for the likes of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. However, it was strange that some of our compatriots were deceived by the enemies and played by their rules."

0630 GMT: Deadline day for President Ahmadinejad, as he has to present his selections for Ministerial posts to Parliament. The furour over the President's relations with the legislature, which had peaked with controversies over the 1st Vice President and Ministry of Intelligence, has quieted in the last week, but several key MPs have warned that Ahmadinejad must put forward candidates with expertise and judgement.

On another front, our Enduring America debate over the challenge of Hashemi Rafsanjani continues. After yesterday's spirited discussion between two of our correspondents and our readers, we've posted a sequel with the views of a third EA analyst. There is a clear split in our community on not only Rafsanjani's position but that of the President: some see Rafsanjani playing a clever game as Ahmadinejad loudly struggles, others see the President in the ascendancy. And, thanks to our readers, important factors such as the Revolutionary Guard, the "principlist" political bloc, and the Army have also been brought into the arena.

For me, however, the emerging story yesterday was the clear signal that the Green opposition has not gone away. While the organisation of public protest is still fragmented, many key secular and clerical figures rallied around Mehdi Karroubi's demand that the Government investigate and punish those responsible for abuse of detainees. Karroubi reiterated the protest in his statement, "You Will Not Force Me Into Silence", and Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, and the "reformist" front were among those who offered high-profile endorsements. These complemented the "hot" Internet story of the day, the video of Ayatollah Sane'i's scathing attack on the regime.

As I've said on several occasions, the regime may be keeping the opposition vibrant --- ironically --- by trying to break it with detentions, confessions, and trials. Today's planned 4th trial of post-election political prisoners has been postponed until next Tuesday, raising the question as to whether some in the Government have realised that the high-profile hard line may be counter-productive.

If this is just a pause, however (and one of the rumours yesterday was that politician Saeed Hajjarian would be amongst the defendants), we will not only be considering the President's Cabinet and Rafsanjani's future. The Green Path of Hope, which Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami joined yesterday, may be more than a symbol.

Iran: The Inside Line on Hashemi Rafsanjani (from His Brother)

The Latest from Iran (15 August): Battles Within the Establishment

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Hashemi Rafsanjani's siding with the reformists came out in the open with his sermon of July 17 at Tehran University. However, little information on his point of view was in the public view until Friday, when the Islamic Labor News Agency news agency published a long interview with Mohammad Hashemi, younger brother and close confidant of the former president. It offers revealing glimpses on the wily cleric's frame of mind and suggests that he is not sitting idly, despite being thwarted in attempts to perform routine tasks such as leading Friday prayers.

Of particular interest are Mohammad Hashemi's statements that Rafsanjani believes that Ahmadinejad, and implictly Khamenei, have veered off the course of the Islamic Revolution. All this makes Rafsanjani's position in the run-up to the next meeting of the Assembly of Experts, which should take place within the next 30 days, all the more interesting. Will the leader of the sole body that can dismiss the Supreme Leader finally act according to his constitutional powers and steer Khamenei back on a course of "allegiance" to the Imam's line?

Extracts from the interview:

MH: People were unhappy about the Ahmadinejad government since 1386 [2006], and these people were not restricted to any particular faction. At least 15 million people are still unhappy today. The Guardian Council cannot be the only side to be able to talk on the national media --- the unsatisfied people must be allowed to talk as well.

A lot of people think that their rights have been trampled upon. The way to restore the confidence of the latter in the system is not through violence and jailing. The solidity of the political system will not be reinforced through this sort of behaviour. People acting in this way must change attitude.

These days are really testing for [Hashemi Rafsanjani]. He cannot be upbeat or feel glad when he notices that a group of our compatriots are in jail or are beaten up or even have their relatives arrested and violently dealt with. This situation is not one that generates joy and sweetness for Mr. Hashemi."

During the ninth presidential elections of 1384 [2005] those events [attacks on Rafsanjani] occurred , there was a discussion on these events in the first session of the [Expediency] Council itself. Some of the members asked Hashemi why he did not respond to the allegations. During that meeting, Shaykh Hassan Sanei [brother of Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sanei and head of the 15 Khordad Foundation] is afraid. After the rest expressed bewilderment, Sanei explained that Hashemi is afraid that the Revolution might be slighted. It is for this reason that he is ready to face these hardships.

Hashemi Rafsanjani is deeply unpleased and unsatisfied by the current situation and does not consider it to be in line with the programme and development of the path of the Revolution. Hashemi Rafsanjani is distressed when he observes doubts being cast over human dignity.

They want to move Hashemi Rafsanjani out of the way in order to establish an Islamic Government.

[Why have attacks against Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani increased?] An issue came up after the passing away of the Imam [Khomeini]: Do we want an Islamic Republic or an Islamic government/state. The Imam desired an Islamic Republic. Some, however, later said that the Imam would not have wanted a Republic had he been alive today. He had brought up the idea during his lifetime for the sake of appearing courteous and respectful of others. However, Mr. Hashemi wants the same Islamic Republic that the Imam preferred. Presently, there are some [political] figures that do not want this and, for this reason, they need to force Mr. Hashemi out of the way in order to achieve an Islamic government. In order to reach their preferred goal, they resort to insults and lies. This group assigns no rights whatsoever to the people within their government. This comes despite the fact that the Imam said that everything the state does has to be for the people's sake. During Mr. Mousavi's government, the Imam would say that the government should not get involved in what the people can perform autonomously, and stated that the people should be able to express their wishes and desires.

Unfortunately, we have now reached a point in which some people get to the level of announcing on radio, TV, and the press that the Imam would not want a Republic had he been alive now.

Hashemi, the right man in times of crisis

Hashemi had the ability to resolve certain crises during the Imam's time due to the Imam's support and cooperation. We are not witnessing a similar situation now, due to certain decisions being taken the way they were. Mr. Hashemi cannot be as effective alone as he could have been back then. We should also not forget that Mr. Hashemi does not have state-governmental power in his hands; due to the lack of the latter, Mr. Hashemi cannot take practical steps. He does not want to act in a way as to allow foreign megaphones to claim that there is a power struggle going on inside Iran.

[MH referred to his brother's suggestions, as made at the July 17 Friday Prayers, as a "Three-point Decree"] Unfortunately, these suggestions were not received as they should have been: Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi acted in a very insulting way. The faction opposing Mr. Hashemi are waiting for him to say anything in order to insult him.

As stated by Mr. Hashemi, the Leader of the Revolution is able to resolve this crisis. Otherwise, violence and the imprisonment of political personalities will not resolve the current crisis - our revolution would have not succeeded had we been supposed to proceed along these paths.

On the "confessions" of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Mohammad Atrianfar in the Tehran trials:

Both Atrianfar and Abtahi reached the conclusion, in jail, that there has been no rigging in the elections. The question rises as to what sort of facilities were provided to these gentlemen in prison, given that extensive documentation is necessary to prove that rigging or otherwise happened during the course of the last elections. [These] speeches are costly for the regime and the country.

[Would MH, as head of Iran Radio and TV in the 1980s, have shown these confessions?]
The broadcast of these types of confessions is external to the decision-making of the Radio-TV management. I was personally against the airing of the confessions of Ayatollah Shariatmadari, which the Information Ministry insisted upon. I visited the Imam after the first sessions was televised and he concurred, saying, "You don't have to pay attention to Mr. Shariatmadari anymore." This was due to the fact that Mr. Shariatmadari was a marja [senior cleric] with plenty of followers, pursuing his case further would have had adverse results.

The airing of confessions today can be linked to a pre-ordained plan to rid the political system of several ["reformist"] political parties.

Latest Iran Video: Abtahi "Confession", Roohul Amini, and the Tehran Trial (2-3 August)

The Latest from Iran (3 August): Trials and Inaugurations
Iran Video: The Khamenei-Ahmadinejad “Non-Kiss” (3 August)
Iran: Putting the Opposition on Trial

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More "Confessions" from Mohammad Abi Abtahi and Mohammad Atrianfar

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGTTaFTukhU[/youtube]

The "Confession" of Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaMjteVXHbA[/youtube]

Abdolhossein Amini to Press TV on his son Mohsen (killed in detention)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rInjUdqVUo0[/youtube]

"Reformist" Member of Parliament Darius Ghanbari on Trial

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2YIVt0mlIA[/youtube]