The Latest from Iran (29 August): The Stakes Are Raised

UPDATED Iran: How the Regime Constructed the “Velvet Revolution”
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”
The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays

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1820 GMT: EA correspondent Mr Johnson gives us some guidance on the change of Tehran chief prosecutor:

Regardless of Dowlatabadi's political affiliations, the replacement of Mortazavi is a sign that the establishment considers him to be a liability and perhaps dispensable as a potential scapegoat.

The main issue is whether this change is merely cosmetic or whether the establishment take a proactive approach, namely, scuttle the trials (which can be easily done because all the indictments are so flimsy that none of them can bear any legal scrutiny), and somehow solve the very public and very embarrasing and inflammatory issue of prison tortures and unmarked graves, thereby regaining some semblence of legality and law. The next few days will be extremely inportant.

1755 GMT: A reader strikes back immediately at the security force denials of involvement in post-election raids: "You can't fake live video feed. We've got evidence on several videos that basij attacked dorms in Tehran University," and offers this:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzUhJXTspcw[/youtube]

1740 GMT: This is now looking like a concerted campaign between the President and security force commanders to deny any post-election misdeeds. After Tehran's police chief denied any detainee was killed in Kahrizak prison (0845 GMT), the Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari has said the post-election death toll is 20 Basiji militia and only 9 "opponents and outlaws". Jafari denied that the Basiji were involved in the raids on university dormitories days after the election.

1715 GMT: EA's Iran analyst Mr Smith drops by to take issue with the portrayal by Tehran Bureau of an "isolated, weak, and delusional" Ahmadinejad (1310 GMT):

This lacks sources on just about all the allegations it makes and then essentially parrots the reformist line: Ahmadinejad is weak, is in trouble, is a lame duck already, etc.

While of course all of us wish that this was the case, the reality appears quite different, as we have seen no real thrust to wrestle him out of office. The Supreme Leader has only rebuked him frontally during the [former First Vice President] Mashai affair and he still has the rather remarkable opportunity of talking from official platforms such as Friday Prayers, saying things quite different from what the SL says, and still walking out relatively unscathed.

Granted, he has the same amount, or more, difficulties than any executive leader in the world would have for forming a government, but I would be very cautious in calling Ahmadinejad a has-been and that days may be counted down to his demise. Sadly, I doubt this scenario will happen anytime soon.

We shouldn't forget that the Supreme Leader, conservative critics of AN like the Larijanis, Ahmad Tavakoli (who happens to be the Larijanis' cousin), and more have essentially agreed to accept the outcome of the Presidential election as announced by the Interior ministry. Hence, they are simply jostling for political kudoes and power within the Government, more than mounting a challenge that is really geared towards removing Ahmadinejad from power.

1700 GMT: Back from an afternoon break for a wedding.

After a couple of weeks of indecision, Tehran's Chief Prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi has been replaced by Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi, head of judiciary in the southern province of Khuzestan.

The Los Angeles Times is framing Dowlatabadi as "a relatively moderate newcomer" and portraying Mortazavi's "firing" as a signal against the trials of political detainees that he oversaw. We're not sure of that interpretation --- any comments would be welcome.

1340 GMT: Our question (0445 GMT): "Does Mehdi Karroubi make another intervention on detentions and abuses?" Karroubi's answer: an open letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, offering to provide documentation and detainees who have suffered abuse.

1323 GMT: The principlist member of Parliament Ali Motahari, who has been highly critical of the Government in recent weeks, has said Ahmadinejad's remarks contest and challenge the Supreme Leader and the President must be held responsible for his deeds and words, particularly on the issue of detentions.

1315 GMT: The reformist party Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, some of whose members are among the political detainees, have strongly condemned the 4th “show trial” and called it a reminder of the medieval inquisition courts and Stalin-era tribunals. The party emphasised that the staged “trials” and false “confessions” are conspiracies to suspend the reformist parties.

1310 GMT: And, on the same theme, Muhammad Sahimi at Tehran Bureau pays great attention to the "glaring fissures [which] have emerged within the conservative and reactionary camp", albeit with the dramatic presentation of an "isolated, weak, and delusional" Ahmadinejad.

1300 GMT: It's not just Enduring America that is raising questions about the divide between the Supreme Leader and the President in light of their differing speeches on Wednesday and yesterday. The reformist website Rah-e-Sabz has noted the divergences over foreign-inspired revolution and, in particular, Ahmadinejad's denial of any security force responsibility for abuses less than 48 hours after Ayatollah Khamenei promised that anyone guilty of such abuses would be published.

1110 GMT: The Battle over the Cabinet. A prominent "conservative" member of Parliament, Ahmad Tavakoli, has said that 7 of President Ahmadinejad's 21 Ministerial nominees will fail to receive a vote of confidence. Echoing reports from yesterday, Tavakoli said all three women put forth will be rejected because of a lack of executive experience.

1040 GMT: In an interview with Etemad newspaper, Mohammad Hashemi, the brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani, said that Rafsanjani is not planning to quit leading Friday Prayers He also described how security forces beat Rafsanjani's daughter-in-law while arresting her during one of the post-election protests.

0905 GMT: Pretty slow day after yesterday's excitement. No answers to any of our questions at 0445 GMT. Internet chatter is on the call by Human Rights Watch on the new head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to "tackle rights abuses".

0845 GMT: Nothing Happened Here. More signs of an Ahmadinejad Fightback. After the President's claims yesterday that incidents at detention centres were the fault of the protest movement, rather than the security forces, the Tehran police chief, Azizollah Rajabzadeh, has explained that "no defendants were transferred to the Kahrizak detention centre without a judicial warrant and no defendant was killed" in the prison.

Oh. Well, following on the week's theme --- the Supreme Leader and the President on different pages of the script --- someone might want to tell Ayatollah Khamenei, who has admitted mistakes at Kahrizak and ordered its closure.

0515 GMT: A Follow-Up on "Velvet Revolution". After our analysis yesterday, "How the Regime Constructed the Velvet Revolution", an EA correspondent points to an interview by Ayande News with Hamid Reza Moghadam-Far, the Managing Director of Fars News Agency, and a Mr. Gharebaghi, whom Ayande claim are two of the authors of the Tehran trial indictments. Their views of the "velvet revolution" are posted in an update of the analysis.

0445 GMT: At the risk of being overdramatic, Friday was a day of two statements, that of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to and beyond the audience at Tehran's prayers and that of Mohammad Khatami to and beyond reformist leaders.

The founding assertion of each statement was that the current President/former President was ready to take the post-election crisis to a political and legal showdown with the ultimate public punishment. In Ahmadinejad's case, he was ready to press until the opposition leaders were imprisoned for a long, long time; in Khatami's, he was ready to see the "traitors" ejected from power and positions of responsibility.

What we now await, in an always-shifting conflict but one which continues to be about legitimacy, is the response of others. With respect, the protest movement is mainly an observer, with the next mass demonstration proposed for 18 September, so attention turns to political and religious leaders. Does Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies break cover, after their recent skirmish over the Tehran trial, and give any support to Khatami? Does Mehdi Karroubi make another intervention on detentions and abuses, and thus those responsibile for them, or wait for a Parliamentary response to his claims? Where is Mir Hossein Mousavi?

And, just to repeat our thought from yesterday, what does the Supreme Leader do now?

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume

NEW The 4th Tehran Trial: The Tehran Bureau Summary
NEW Video: The 4th Tehran Trial (25 August)
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani
Iran Interview: Mousavi Advisor Beheshti on The Election
The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match

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1940 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has asked for time on state television to refute the charges made against him in today's Tehran trial.

1830 GMT: Press TV English's website is now featuring the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh (1500 GMT). It is playing up the angle that Tajbakhsh, who had been with the Soros Foundation in Iran, conspired with former President Khatami and Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the former Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations, from 2006 on "velvet revolution" after a meeting with George Soros: “Because of the support of some officials from the reformist camp…a safe place was created for the cooperation of domestic and foreign forces…and American political parties and non-governmental organisations found a way to start activities in Iran."

1745 GMT: #MediaFail. OK, I've gone for a run, had a shower, grabbed a cup of tea, chatted with the wife, checked out the Israel-Palestine latest, and....

CNN still has not noticed there was a trial in Tehran today. (OK, at 1737 GMT, one of their Twitter feeds did figure out "Iran resumed Tuesday its mass trial of political reformists", but they have yet to get anyone on the website to notice.)

On a related note, I have yet to see one "Western" media outlet recognise that Hashemi Rafsanjani, as well as the "reformists", was targeted in the proceedings today.

1730 GMT: Freelance journalist and blogger Fariba Pajooh has been arrested.

1720 GMT: One Non-Confession. Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the Deputy Secretary General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been unrepentant after today's trials. He explained that, as he was arrested within 2-3 hours of the election results, he could not have been involved in post-election disturbances. He declared, "I have always been a reformist but I am pro-Islamic Republic."



1550 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, has issued a short but blunt denial of the charges of money laundering and electoral manipulation levelled at him in the Tehran trial today.

1530 GMT: Days after public allegations that security forces forced the staff of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to bury 40 bodies of slain protestors, the managing director of the cemetery has been fired.

1525 GMT: And now Press TV English headlines, "Rafsanjani son implicated in fresh Iran trials". It focuses on the testimony of Hamzeh Karimi with the claim "that the Iranian Fuel Conservation Organization's assets were used to finance Rafsanjani presidential campaign" in 2005: “Mehdi Hashemi believed that election in Iran were financed with government funds. He did not believe in spending private savings for the election. So they step up a system for forgery and document falsification."

1515 GMT: No Doubt About It --- Target Rafsanjani. IRNA's lead story is a long overview of the trial today, and its headline goes after Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. Another family member, brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali Jasebi, a former University chancellor, is also criticised.

1500 GMT: Bringing Out the American. The next showpiece testimony, presented in Fars News, is that of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, identified as the representative of the Soros Foundation in Iran. (For the regime, "Soros Foundation", with its Open Democracy Project, embodies "velvet revolution".) The objective? Tajbaksh's "evidence" that he had continued meetings with Mohammad Khatami after the latter's departure from office in 2005 apparently links the former President to the foreign efforts at regime change in Tehran.

1440 GMT: The head of the Parliament Research Center, Ahmad Tavakoli, has called for the lifting of the ban on the "reformist" newspaper Etemade Melli and the trying of Tehran's chief prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi in military judge's court for his failure in "restoring public rights and promoting justice and legitimate freedoms" in this case and others.

1400 GMT: The Fightback Begins? Mark  down this date: 18 September. If I'm right, that is the last Friday of Ramadan (if I'm wrong, feel free to correct). It is also Qods Day, which is traditionally a day when Hashemi Rafsanjani leads ceremonies.

Mowj-e-Sabz has just declared that this will also be true this year, with Rafsanjani leading Friday prayers in Tehran and the Green movement preparing to march.

1345 GMT: A Quick Note on Media Coverage. Reuters has been in the lead on "Western" coverage of the trial, though it has little beyond Saeed Hajjarian, and it is still unaware of the regime's accusations against the Rafsanjani family. Al Jazeera English is still stuck with an early-morning overview, as is the BBC.

And CNN International is hopeless. Its Twitter outlet tweeted an hour ago about "the latest on our Iran wire": the story, from 0742 GMT, is on Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of sexual abuse of detainees.

1320 GMT: We were going to post a special analysis tomorrow morning of the significance of today's developments but, frankly, the move against Hashemi Rafsanjani as well as the attempt to break the reformists is so stunning that it cannot be too soon to highlight what may be a defining showdown in this crisis. So we've now published a snap analysis, "The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani".

1220 GMT: Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary National Security Committee has told the Islamic Republic News Agency, "After a meeting with [Mehdi] Karoubi yesterday and based on our thorough and complete investigation.....We believe the claims [of sexual abuse of detainees] are baseless."

1215 GMT: Press TV English's website has published its first account of the trial, focusing on the Hajjarian statement, read by fellow Islamic Iran Participation Front member Saeed Shariati. Hajjarian did not admit --- "" have never been involved in cruelty and enmity towards the Iranian nation and the Islamic establishment" --- but expressed "hatred with all the moves that threatened the country's security". He then resigned from the IIPF.

Ominously the prosecutor called for the "maximum punishment", i.e., the death penalty, for Hajjarian.

1145 GMT: An EA correspondent confirms that the lead item on the Islamic Republic News Agency website claims, from today's "confession" of journalist Masoud Bastani, that the now-defunct website www.jomhouriyat.com was a "war room" for attacks against the Ahmadinejad Government and that the idea of claiming fraud in the election was passed to it through Mehdi Hashemi, Rafsanjani's son.

1140 GMT: Meanwhile, more "confessions" in the trial. Fars is now featuring the testimony of Shahab Tabatabai, the head of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front. The headline claim is that Mir Hossein Mousavi suffered from the "illusion" that he would win a first-round victory in the Presidential election.

1130 GMT: We're checking the accounts of the trial with the help of correspondents. Here is the latest reading of the allegations linking Mir Hossein Mousavi and Hashemi Rafanjani: "Rafsanjani and Mousavi knew Ahmadinejad was winner when the preliminary count showed Ahmadinejad had a wide lead. They decided to create a 'velvet revolution' and demonstrate 'vote fraud'. Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, was involved with Saham News, which was coordinating the demonstrations with the BBC, and he was geting paid through the Azad University in the form of a cheque."

1100 GMT: It looks like we read this correctly. Rah-e-Sabz summarises that the indictment and "confessions" implicate Hasemi Rafsanjani's nephew, Ali Hashemi, for stimulating demonstrations and his son, Mehdi Hashemi, for spreading disinformation.

1030 GMT: If our translation is correct, the regime has used the "confessions" of journalists Hamzeh Karami and Masoud Bastani not only to draw the picture of a foreign-directed network for velvet revolution and not only to allege the implementation of this through Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign, but also to implicate Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. IRNA also carries an account of the effort "to create doubt and undermine the Ahmadinejad Government's decisions".

1020 GMT: Away from the trial, members of Parliament are holding meetings with President Ahmadinejad's Ministerial nominees in advance of votes of confidence beginning Sunday.

The Press TV article, quoting "principlist" MPs, indicates that the chances of Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, currently Minister of Defence but proposed to move to Interior, depend on his speech to Parliament: “The controversy surrounding Najjar's military background and how it will affect the interior ministry all depends on how he will defend his programs on the voting day in Parliament.” Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is in better shape, though approval is not certain, and Minister of Industry Ali Akbar Mehrabian may remain if he can provide “an acceptable explanation” about his involvement in a fraud case.

1010 GMT: Fars is featuring more "confessions" from defendants, all of which point towards a foreign-instigated "velvet revolution". One defendant has spoken of the involvement of the US Government-funded Radio Farda and training at a site in Czechoslovakia.

It appears, though we cannot be certain, that at least one of the statements may refer to the involvement of sites connected to Hashemi Rafsanjani and, in particular, his son Mehdi Hashemi in this alleged conspiracy. We are double-checking translations to verify.

0925 GMT: Fars News Agency has now published a set of photographs from the 4th Tehran trial.

0740 GMT: Press TV has also published the general indictment of the defendants, based on their alleged statements, in the 4th Tehran trial. "Before the election, statistical evidence was provided that the difference [between candidates] was so great that [President] Ahmadinejad did not need to cheat"; however, the defendants claimed fraud to implement the "velvet revolution". The had "a direct relationship with the colonial and television networks of the BBC and the advertising propaganda machine of the British regime". Even while the voting was in progress, police closed "illegal networks". (Inadvertently, this claim highlights the significance of the testimony of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, which we carry today in a separate entry.)

0730 GMT: Fars News Agency has published, from Press TV, the statement of Saeed Hajjarian in the 4th Tehran trial. Hajjarian says he is innocent but apologised for "formidable errors" during and after the election. He then goes into a lengthy exposition of the "Western theory of velvet revolution" as "a serious lesson for all political activists".

0700 GMT: Reuters has first summary in English of the 4th Tehran trial. It lists the defendants we name below but, citing Islamic Republic News Agency, says, "Saaed Hajjarian, a former deputy intelligence minister turned architect of Iran's reform movement, was also among the accused".

0545 GMT: The fourth Tehran trial of post-election political detainees has opened, and there are some high-profile reformist politicians, activists, and journalists and the first Iranian-American to stand trial, Kian Tajbakhsh. According to Fars News, other defendants include Behzad Nabavi, Mohsen Safaei Farahani, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Saeed Shariati, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Shahab Tabatabai, Masoud Bastani, and Saeed Laylaz.

We're checking to see if Saeed Hajjarian, as rumoured over the last 72 hours, is also being tried today. Hajjarian's lawyer said he was forced to resign from the case was replaced by an attorney appointed by the State.

The Latest from Iran (19 August): Challenges in Parliament and from Prisons

NEW Is Rafsanjani (or Ahmadinejad) A Spent Force? The Sequel
Text of Latest Karroubi Statement “You Will Not Force Me Into Silence”

The Latest from Iran (18 August): Which Way for the Government?

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1700 GMT: More, Much More on that Assembly of Experts Meeting. The Executive Committee's agenda appears to have been a delay in the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due to take place within the next 10-12 days, for a month because of Ramadan.
This rules out any quick intervention by the Assembly in the political crisis.

But the big question: who asked for the delay? Was it the head of the Committee, Hashemi Rafsanjani, to give himself time for his next moves? Or was it the other members --- former head of judiciary Hashemi Shahroudi, Mohammad Yazdi, Prosecutor General Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi, and Ahmad Khatami --- all of whom are more supportive of President Ahmadinejad?

1605 GMT: The Executive Committee of the Assembly of Experts has met, but there are no details of the agenda or content of the discussion.

1550 GMT: There is still no news on whether the President has formally submitted his Ministerial nomination to Parliament.

1415 GMT: Report that Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, an activist close to Mohammad Khatami, will be released from detention today. Journalist Zhila Bani Yaghoub has been released on $200,000 bail.

1405 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to confirm that he is ready to present his evidence of the abuse of detainees.

1230 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz claims that a group of senior clerics have met the Supreme Leader and criticised the behaviour of his son, Mojtaba, but "to no avail".

1225 GMT: Did the President Miss the Deadline? The official Parliamentary News Agency has an item at 1530 local time (1100 GMT), 30 minutes before the deadline for the President to submit his Cabinet nominations. Aboutourabi Fard, the anti-Ahmadinejad Deputy Speaker, says no letter had been received.

It is now almost an hour after the deadline.

1220 GMT: The new head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is moving briskly with appointments: Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has become Prosecutor General, replacing Ghorban Ali Dorri-Najafabadi.

Hmmm....Would this be the same Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie fired as Minister of Intelligence by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a few weeks ago? Perhaps someone should give the President the latest news.

1130 GMT: EA source says that President Ahmadinejad's nationally-televised address, announcing his Ministerial nominations, has been postponed until tomorrow night after 9 p.m. local time.

1055 GMT: The Rah-e-Sabz website, quoting "reliable sources from Tehran", reports that Karroubi is resurrecting his plan from 2005 for the "Saba" satellite channel.

The plan was shelved four years ago after direct intervention by Ali Larijani, then chair of the National Security Council, who deemed the plan "an act against national security". Karroubi then founded the Etemade Melli newspaper to reach the masses.

Now Karroubi is threatening to get serious with the satellite channel should the regime's ban on the newspaper remain in place. Initial launch preparations are underway and "a group of film makers based inside the country" is willing to take part. The headquarters would be set up in another Mideast country (an EA correspondent suggests the United Arab Emirates), and the goal would be to air the "real news" that the state media neglects.

1045 GMT: To the Wire. Mehr News says President Ahmadinejad has still not decided on the appointments of three Ministers. Tabnak, however, says only one post (Justice) is still to be determined for the final submission to Parliament. The names of those Ministers who have been proposed, in both articles, are those posted earlier in Press TV/Fars accounts (see 0900 GMT).

0940 GMT: Saham News claims that a commission is investigating the Mosharekat and  Mojahedin political parties with a view to amending the law to prohibt contacts and exchange of views and information with foreign embassies and acceptance of foreign financial aid. An EA source confirms that this process started about six weeks ago.

0900 GMT: The President's Cabinet? Press TV, citing Fars News Agency, reveals Ministerial nominees. Among the appointments: Manouchehr Mottaki remains as Foreign Minister, Kamran Daneshjou at Science, Research and Technology, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar as Minister of Interior, Mohammad Hosseini leading Ministry of Culture and the Islamic Guidance, and Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense.

0855 GMT: And Yet More Support. The Association of Iran Alumni and Union of Islamic Associations of University Students have declared that they will not abandon Karroubi and other reformist leaders.

0850 GMT: The Green Wave of Support. We reported yesterday on the "reformist" front coming out in support of Mehdi Karroubi's position on abuse of detainees. Norooz have now published the text of the statement from the Islamic Iran Participation Front.

0820 GMT: Clarification on Reformist-Clerics Meeting (0740 GMT). Another EA correspondent explains, "Javad Shahrestani is not an Ayatollah, and most probably not even a mujtahid. He runs sistani.org from Qom and is the person who brought the Internet to the holy city and transformed it into a technology hub. However, he is not high on religious credentials. The fact that people refer to him as 'Ayatollah' underlies the attempt to indicate the higher level of these figures close to the opposition."

0740 GMT: A reader lets us know that the full English summary, provided by a Twitter activist, of Ayatollah Sanei's attack on the regime (full video in separate entry) is now available on the Internet.

0730 GMT: More Opposition Moves. An EA correspondent has verified news we saw yesterday, "The reformists Abdollah Nouri, Gholamhosein Karbaschi [former Mayor of Tehran and top advisor to Karroubi], and other reformists have been having separate meetings with Ayatollah Montazeri and Ayatollah Shahrestani, the son-in-law of Ayatollah Sistani [the leading Shia cleric in Iraq]. These reformists have requested that the Shia high clergy become more involved in the current issues of the country."

0650 GMT: We asked moments ago "whether some in the Government have realised that the high-profile hard line may be counter-productive".

Hmmm, maybe not. Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, the Supreme Leader's liaison with the Revolutionary Guard, said yesterday, "[The] leaders of the recent unrest are still out of prison." Rounding up those leaders "could be the will of the nation and the media".

Saeedi also defended the regime's high-profile display of "confessions" by figures such as former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi:

These confessions were of utmost importance, since they shed light on the core of "the ordeal" and the rings linked to it....It was not unexpected that the foreigners would take us for the likes of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. However, it was strange that some of our compatriots were deceived by the enemies and played by their rules."

0630 GMT: Deadline day for President Ahmadinejad, as he has to present his selections for Ministerial posts to Parliament. The furour over the President's relations with the legislature, which had peaked with controversies over the 1st Vice President and Ministry of Intelligence, has quieted in the last week, but several key MPs have warned that Ahmadinejad must put forward candidates with expertise and judgement.

On another front, our Enduring America debate over the challenge of Hashemi Rafsanjani continues. After yesterday's spirited discussion between two of our correspondents and our readers, we've posted a sequel with the views of a third EA analyst. There is a clear split in our community on not only Rafsanjani's position but that of the President: some see Rafsanjani playing a clever game as Ahmadinejad loudly struggles, others see the President in the ascendancy. And, thanks to our readers, important factors such as the Revolutionary Guard, the "principlist" political bloc, and the Army have also been brought into the arena.

For me, however, the emerging story yesterday was the clear signal that the Green opposition has not gone away. While the organisation of public protest is still fragmented, many key secular and clerical figures rallied around Mehdi Karroubi's demand that the Government investigate and punish those responsible for abuse of detainees. Karroubi reiterated the protest in his statement, "You Will Not Force Me Into Silence", and Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, and the "reformist" front were among those who offered high-profile endorsements. These complemented the "hot" Internet story of the day, the video of Ayatollah Sane'i's scathing attack on the regime.

As I've said on several occasions, the regime may be keeping the opposition vibrant --- ironically --- by trying to break it with detentions, confessions, and trials. Today's planned 4th trial of post-election political prisoners has been postponed until next Tuesday, raising the question as to whether some in the Government have realised that the high-profile hard line may be counter-productive.

If this is just a pause, however (and one of the rumours yesterday was that politician Saeed Hajjarian would be amongst the defendants), we will not only be considering the President's Cabinet and Rafsanjani's future. The Green Path of Hope, which Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami joined yesterday, may be more than a symbol.