Tuesday
Aug252009
The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume
Tuesday, August 25, 2009 at 21:21
NEW The 4th Tehran Trial: The Tehran Bureau Summary
NEW Video: The 4th Tehran Trial (25 August)
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani
Iran Interview: Mousavi Advisor Beheshti on The Election
The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help EnduringAmerica Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1940 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has asked for time on state television to refute the charges made against him in today's Tehran trial.
1830 GMT: Press TV English's website is now featuring the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh (1500 GMT). It is playing up the angle that Tajbakhsh, who had been with the Soros Foundation in Iran, conspired with former President Khatami and Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the former Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations, from 2006 on "velvet revolution" after a meeting with George Soros: “Because of the support of some officials from the reformist camp…a safe place was created for the cooperation of domestic and foreign forces…and American political parties and non-governmental organisations found a way to start activities in Iran."
1745 GMT: #MediaFail. OK, I've gone for a run, had a shower, grabbed a cup of tea, chatted with the wife, checked out the Israel-Palestine latest, and....
CNN still has not noticed there was a trial in Tehran today. (OK, at 1737 GMT, one of their Twitter feeds did figure out "Iran resumed Tuesday its mass trial of political reformists", but they have yet to get anyone on the website to notice.)
On a related note, I have yet to see one "Western" media outlet recognise that Hashemi Rafsanjani, as well as the "reformists", was targeted in the proceedings today.
1730 GMT: Freelance journalist and blogger Fariba Pajooh has been arrested.
1720 GMT: One Non-Confession. Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the Deputy Secretary General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been unrepentant after today's trials. He explained that, as he was arrested within 2-3 hours of the election results, he could not have been involved in post-election disturbances. He declared, "I have always been a reformist but I am pro-Islamic Republic."
1550 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, has issued a short but blunt denial of the charges of money laundering and electoral manipulation levelled at him in the Tehran trial today.
1530 GMT: Days after public allegations that security forces forced the staff of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to bury 40 bodies of slain protestors, the managing director of the cemetery has been fired.
1525 GMT: And now Press TV English headlines, "Rafsanjani son implicated in fresh Iran trials". It focuses on the testimony of Hamzeh Karimi with the claim "that the Iranian Fuel Conservation Organization's assets were used to finance Rafsanjani presidential campaign" in 2005: “Mehdi Hashemi believed that election in Iran were financed with government funds. He did not believe in spending private savings for the election. So they step up a system for forgery and document falsification."
1515 GMT: No Doubt About It --- Target Rafsanjani. IRNA's lead story is a long overview of the trial today, and its headline goes after Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. Another family member, brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali Jasebi, a former University chancellor, is also criticised.
1500 GMT: Bringing Out the American. The next showpiece testimony, presented in Fars News, is that of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, identified as the representative of the Soros Foundation in Iran. (For the regime, "Soros Foundation", with its Open Democracy Project, embodies "velvet revolution".) The objective? Tajbaksh's "evidence" that he had continued meetings with Mohammad Khatami after the latter's departure from office in 2005 apparently links the former President to the foreign efforts at regime change in Tehran.
1440 GMT: The head of the Parliament Research Center, Ahmad Tavakoli, has called for the lifting of the ban on the "reformist" newspaper Etemade Melli and the trying of Tehran's chief prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi in military judge's court for his failure in "restoring public rights and promoting justice and legitimate freedoms" in this case and others.
1400 GMT: The Fightback Begins? Mark down this date: 18 September. If I'm right, that is the last Friday of Ramadan (if I'm wrong, feel free to correct). It is also Qods Day, which is traditionally a day when Hashemi Rafsanjani leads ceremonies.
Mowj-e-Sabz has just declared that this will also be true this year, with Rafsanjani leading Friday prayers in Tehran and the Green movement preparing to march.
1345 GMT: A Quick Note on Media Coverage. Reuters has been in the lead on "Western" coverage of the trial, though it has little beyond Saeed Hajjarian, and it is still unaware of the regime's accusations against the Rafsanjani family. Al Jazeera English is still stuck with an early-morning overview, as is the BBC.
And CNN International is hopeless. Its Twitter outlet tweeted an hour ago about "the latest on our Iran wire": the story, from 0742 GMT, is on Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of sexual abuse of detainees.
1320 GMT: We were going to post a special analysis tomorrow morning of the significance of today's developments but, frankly, the move against Hashemi Rafsanjani as well as the attempt to break the reformists is so stunning that it cannot be too soon to highlight what may be a defining showdown in this crisis. So we've now published a snap analysis, "The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani".
1220 GMT: Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary National Security Committee has told the Islamic Republic News Agency, "After a meeting with [Mehdi] Karoubi yesterday and based on our thorough and complete investigation.....We believe the claims [of sexual abuse of detainees] are baseless."
1215 GMT: Press TV English's website has published its first account of the trial, focusing on the Hajjarian statement, read by fellow Islamic Iran Participation Front member Saeed Shariati. Hajjarian did not admit --- "" have never been involved in cruelty and enmity towards the Iranian nation and the Islamic establishment" --- but expressed "hatred with all the moves that threatened the country's security". He then resigned from the IIPF.
Ominously the prosecutor called for the "maximum punishment", i.e., the death penalty, for Hajjarian.
1145 GMT: An EA correspondent confirms that the lead item on the Islamic Republic News Agency website claims, from today's "confession" of journalist Masoud Bastani, that the now-defunct website www.jomhouriyat.com was a "war room" for attacks against the Ahmadinejad Government and that the idea of claiming fraud in the election was passed to it through Mehdi Hashemi, Rafsanjani's son.
1140 GMT: Meanwhile, more "confessions" in the trial. Fars is now featuring the testimony of Shahab Tabatabai, the head of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front. The headline claim is that Mir Hossein Mousavi suffered from the "illusion" that he would win a first-round victory in the Presidential election.
1130 GMT: We're checking the accounts of the trial with the help of correspondents. Here is the latest reading of the allegations linking Mir Hossein Mousavi and Hashemi Rafanjani: "Rafsanjani and Mousavi knew Ahmadinejad was winner when the preliminary count showed Ahmadinejad had a wide lead. They decided to create a 'velvet revolution' and demonstrate 'vote fraud'. Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, was involved with Saham News, which was coordinating the demonstrations with the BBC, and he was geting paid through the Azad University in the form of a cheque."
1100 GMT: It looks like we read this correctly. Rah-e-Sabz summarises that the indictment and "confessions" implicate Hasemi Rafsanjani's nephew, Ali Hashemi, for stimulating demonstrations and his son, Mehdi Hashemi, for spreading disinformation.
1030 GMT: If our translation is correct, the regime has used the "confessions" of journalists Hamzeh Karami and Masoud Bastani not only to draw the picture of a foreign-directed network for velvet revolution and not only to allege the implementation of this through Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign, but also to implicate Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. IRNA also carries an account of the effort "to create doubt and undermine the Ahmadinejad Government's decisions".
1020 GMT: Away from the trial, members of Parliament are holding meetings with President Ahmadinejad's Ministerial nominees in advance of votes of confidence beginning Sunday.
The Press TV article, quoting "principlist" MPs, indicates that the chances of Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, currently Minister of Defence but proposed to move to Interior, depend on his speech to Parliament: “The controversy surrounding Najjar's military background and how it will affect the interior ministry all depends on how he will defend his programs on the voting day in Parliament.” Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is in better shape, though approval is not certain, and Minister of Industry Ali Akbar Mehrabian may remain if he can provide “an acceptable explanation” about his involvement in a fraud case.
1010 GMT: Fars is featuring more "confessions" from defendants, all of which point towards a foreign-instigated "velvet revolution". One defendant has spoken of the involvement of the US Government-funded Radio Farda and training at a site in Czechoslovakia.
It appears, though we cannot be certain, that at least one of the statements may refer to the involvement of sites connected to Hashemi Rafsanjani and, in particular, his son Mehdi Hashemi in this alleged conspiracy. We are double-checking translations to verify.
0925 GMT: Fars News Agency has now published a set of photographs from the 4th Tehran trial.
0740 GMT: Press TV has also published the general indictment of the defendants, based on their alleged statements, in the 4th Tehran trial. "Before the election, statistical evidence was provided that the difference [between candidates] was so great that [President] Ahmadinejad did not need to cheat"; however, the defendants claimed fraud to implement the "velvet revolution". The had "a direct relationship with the colonial and television networks of the BBC and the advertising propaganda machine of the British regime". Even while the voting was in progress, police closed "illegal networks". (Inadvertently, this claim highlights the significance of the testimony of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, which we carry today in a separate entry.)
0730 GMT: Fars News Agency has published, from Press TV, the statement of Saeed Hajjarian in the 4th Tehran trial. Hajjarian says he is innocent but apologised for "formidable errors" during and after the election. He then goes into a lengthy exposition of the "Western theory of velvet revolution" as "a serious lesson for all political activists".
0700 GMT: Reuters has first summary in English of the 4th Tehran trial. It lists the defendants we name below but, citing Islamic Republic News Agency, says, "Saaed Hajjarian, a former deputy intelligence minister turned architect of Iran's reform movement, was also among the accused".
0545 GMT: The fourth Tehran trial of post-election political detainees has opened, and there are some high-profile reformist politicians, activists, and journalists and the first Iranian-American to stand trial, Kian Tajbakhsh. According to Fars News, other defendants include Behzad Nabavi, Mohsen Safaei Farahani, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Saeed Shariati, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Shahab Tabatabai, Masoud Bastani, and Saeed Laylaz.
We're checking to see if Saeed Hajjarian, as rumoured over the last 72 hours, is also being tried today. Hajjarian's lawyer said he was forced to resign from the case was replaced by an attorney appointed by the State.
NEW Video: The 4th Tehran Trial (25 August)
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani
Iran Interview: Mousavi Advisor Beheshti on The Election
The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help EnduringAmerica Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1940 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has asked for time on state television to refute the charges made against him in today's Tehran trial.
1830 GMT: Press TV English's website is now featuring the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh (1500 GMT). It is playing up the angle that Tajbakhsh, who had been with the Soros Foundation in Iran, conspired with former President Khatami and Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the former Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations, from 2006 on "velvet revolution" after a meeting with George Soros: “Because of the support of some officials from the reformist camp…a safe place was created for the cooperation of domestic and foreign forces…and American political parties and non-governmental organisations found a way to start activities in Iran."
1745 GMT: #MediaFail. OK, I've gone for a run, had a shower, grabbed a cup of tea, chatted with the wife, checked out the Israel-Palestine latest, and....
CNN still has not noticed there was a trial in Tehran today. (OK, at 1737 GMT, one of their Twitter feeds did figure out "Iran resumed Tuesday its mass trial of political reformists", but they have yet to get anyone on the website to notice.)
On a related note, I have yet to see one "Western" media outlet recognise that Hashemi Rafsanjani, as well as the "reformists", was targeted in the proceedings today.
1730 GMT: Freelance journalist and blogger Fariba Pajooh has been arrested.
1720 GMT: One Non-Confession. Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the Deputy Secretary General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been unrepentant after today's trials. He explained that, as he was arrested within 2-3 hours of the election results, he could not have been involved in post-election disturbances. He declared, "I have always been a reformist but I am pro-Islamic Republic."
1550 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, has issued a short but blunt denial of the charges of money laundering and electoral manipulation levelled at him in the Tehran trial today.
1530 GMT: Days after public allegations that security forces forced the staff of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to bury 40 bodies of slain protestors, the managing director of the cemetery has been fired.
1525 GMT: And now Press TV English headlines, "Rafsanjani son implicated in fresh Iran trials". It focuses on the testimony of Hamzeh Karimi with the claim "that the Iranian Fuel Conservation Organization's assets were used to finance Rafsanjani presidential campaign" in 2005: “Mehdi Hashemi believed that election in Iran were financed with government funds. He did not believe in spending private savings for the election. So they step up a system for forgery and document falsification."
1515 GMT: No Doubt About It --- Target Rafsanjani. IRNA's lead story is a long overview of the trial today, and its headline goes after Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. Another family member, brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali Jasebi, a former University chancellor, is also criticised.
1500 GMT: Bringing Out the American. The next showpiece testimony, presented in Fars News, is that of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, identified as the representative of the Soros Foundation in Iran. (For the regime, "Soros Foundation", with its Open Democracy Project, embodies "velvet revolution".) The objective? Tajbaksh's "evidence" that he had continued meetings with Mohammad Khatami after the latter's departure from office in 2005 apparently links the former President to the foreign efforts at regime change in Tehran.
1440 GMT: The head of the Parliament Research Center, Ahmad Tavakoli, has called for the lifting of the ban on the "reformist" newspaper Etemade Melli and the trying of Tehran's chief prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi in military judge's court for his failure in "restoring public rights and promoting justice and legitimate freedoms" in this case and others.
1400 GMT: The Fightback Begins? Mark down this date: 18 September. If I'm right, that is the last Friday of Ramadan (if I'm wrong, feel free to correct). It is also Qods Day, which is traditionally a day when Hashemi Rafsanjani leads ceremonies.
Mowj-e-Sabz has just declared that this will also be true this year, with Rafsanjani leading Friday prayers in Tehran and the Green movement preparing to march.
1345 GMT: A Quick Note on Media Coverage. Reuters has been in the lead on "Western" coverage of the trial, though it has little beyond Saeed Hajjarian, and it is still unaware of the regime's accusations against the Rafsanjani family. Al Jazeera English is still stuck with an early-morning overview, as is the BBC.
And CNN International is hopeless. Its Twitter outlet tweeted an hour ago about "the latest on our Iran wire": the story, from 0742 GMT, is on Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of sexual abuse of detainees.
1320 GMT: We were going to post a special analysis tomorrow morning of the significance of today's developments but, frankly, the move against Hashemi Rafsanjani as well as the attempt to break the reformists is so stunning that it cannot be too soon to highlight what may be a defining showdown in this crisis. So we've now published a snap analysis, "The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani".
1220 GMT: Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary National Security Committee has told the Islamic Republic News Agency, "After a meeting with [Mehdi] Karoubi yesterday and based on our thorough and complete investigation.....We believe the claims [of sexual abuse of detainees] are baseless."
1215 GMT: Press TV English's website has published its first account of the trial, focusing on the Hajjarian statement, read by fellow Islamic Iran Participation Front member Saeed Shariati. Hajjarian did not admit --- "" have never been involved in cruelty and enmity towards the Iranian nation and the Islamic establishment" --- but expressed "hatred with all the moves that threatened the country's security". He then resigned from the IIPF.
Ominously the prosecutor called for the "maximum punishment", i.e., the death penalty, for Hajjarian.
1145 GMT: An EA correspondent confirms that the lead item on the Islamic Republic News Agency website claims, from today's "confession" of journalist Masoud Bastani, that the now-defunct website www.jomhouriyat.com was a "war room" for attacks against the Ahmadinejad Government and that the idea of claiming fraud in the election was passed to it through Mehdi Hashemi, Rafsanjani's son.
1140 GMT: Meanwhile, more "confessions" in the trial. Fars is now featuring the testimony of Shahab Tabatabai, the head of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front. The headline claim is that Mir Hossein Mousavi suffered from the "illusion" that he would win a first-round victory in the Presidential election.
1130 GMT: We're checking the accounts of the trial with the help of correspondents. Here is the latest reading of the allegations linking Mir Hossein Mousavi and Hashemi Rafanjani: "Rafsanjani and Mousavi knew Ahmadinejad was winner when the preliminary count showed Ahmadinejad had a wide lead. They decided to create a 'velvet revolution' and demonstrate 'vote fraud'. Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, was involved with Saham News, which was coordinating the demonstrations with the BBC, and he was geting paid through the Azad University in the form of a cheque."
1100 GMT: It looks like we read this correctly. Rah-e-Sabz summarises that the indictment and "confessions" implicate Hasemi Rafsanjani's nephew, Ali Hashemi, for stimulating demonstrations and his son, Mehdi Hashemi, for spreading disinformation.
1030 GMT: If our translation is correct, the regime has used the "confessions" of journalists Hamzeh Karami and Masoud Bastani not only to draw the picture of a foreign-directed network for velvet revolution and not only to allege the implementation of this through Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign, but also to implicate Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. IRNA also carries an account of the effort "to create doubt and undermine the Ahmadinejad Government's decisions".
1020 GMT: Away from the trial, members of Parliament are holding meetings with President Ahmadinejad's Ministerial nominees in advance of votes of confidence beginning Sunday.
The Press TV article, quoting "principlist" MPs, indicates that the chances of Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, currently Minister of Defence but proposed to move to Interior, depend on his speech to Parliament: “The controversy surrounding Najjar's military background and how it will affect the interior ministry all depends on how he will defend his programs on the voting day in Parliament.” Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is in better shape, though approval is not certain, and Minister of Industry Ali Akbar Mehrabian may remain if he can provide “an acceptable explanation” about his involvement in a fraud case.
1010 GMT: Fars is featuring more "confessions" from defendants, all of which point towards a foreign-instigated "velvet revolution". One defendant has spoken of the involvement of the US Government-funded Radio Farda and training at a site in Czechoslovakia.
It appears, though we cannot be certain, that at least one of the statements may refer to the involvement of sites connected to Hashemi Rafsanjani and, in particular, his son Mehdi Hashemi in this alleged conspiracy. We are double-checking translations to verify.
0925 GMT: Fars News Agency has now published a set of photographs from the 4th Tehran trial.
0740 GMT: Press TV has also published the general indictment of the defendants, based on their alleged statements, in the 4th Tehran trial. "Before the election, statistical evidence was provided that the difference [between candidates] was so great that [President] Ahmadinejad did not need to cheat"; however, the defendants claimed fraud to implement the "velvet revolution". The had "a direct relationship with the colonial and television networks of the BBC and the advertising propaganda machine of the British regime". Even while the voting was in progress, police closed "illegal networks". (Inadvertently, this claim highlights the significance of the testimony of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, which we carry today in a separate entry.)
0730 GMT: Fars News Agency has published, from Press TV, the statement of Saeed Hajjarian in the 4th Tehran trial. Hajjarian says he is innocent but apologised for "formidable errors" during and after the election. He then goes into a lengthy exposition of the "Western theory of velvet revolution" as "a serious lesson for all political activists".
0700 GMT: Reuters has first summary in English of the 4th Tehran trial. It lists the defendants we name below but, citing Islamic Republic News Agency, says, "Saaed Hajjarian, a former deputy intelligence minister turned architect of Iran's reform movement, was also among the accused".
0545 GMT: The fourth Tehran trial of post-election political detainees has opened, and there are some high-profile reformist politicians, activists, and journalists and the first Iranian-American to stand trial, Kian Tajbakhsh. According to Fars News, other defendants include Behzad Nabavi, Mohsen Safaei Farahani, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Saeed Shariati, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Shahab Tabatabai, Masoud Bastani, and Saeed Laylaz.
We're checking to see if Saeed Hajjarian, as rumoured over the last 72 hours, is also being tried today. Hajjarian's lawyer said he was forced to resign from the case was replaced by an attorney appointed by the State.
tagged Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Ahmad Tavakoli, Ali Akbar Mehrabian, Ali Hashemi, Behzad Nabavi, Fariba Pajooh, Hamzeh Karami, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Kian Tajbakhsh, Manouchehr Mottaki, Masoud Bastani, Mehdi Hashemi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad-Javad Zarif, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mohsen Safaei Farahani, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Mowj-e-sabz, Qods Day, Radio Farda, Rah-e-Sabz, Saeed Hajjarian, Saeed Laylaz, Saeed Mortazavi, Saeed Shariati, Saham News, Shahab Tabatabai, Tehran Trails in Middle East & Iran, Uncategorized
Reader Comments (20)
latest updates 24 august 1945 GMT:
"Iranian officials interviewed an alleged victim of jailhouse rape at the hands of security personnel. But instead of consoling him, they asked him embarrassing questions and blamed him for the violence."
It's sheer folly to trust this parliament committee! what can be expected from them but further humiliation of the raped persons? it's really heart-rending to see that some of the victims still trust this gvt enough to confide in them.
Does this green opposition (I mean the leaders) really mean business?
Oh WOW.... this is getting more intresting as we move along.
It is now more and more present what this battle is about and who the main players are. I have been saying this for a long time and for me it is still very much a fight between the OLD (Hashemi and the old establishment, the clerics)and the NEW (A.N and the Guards) with the reformists and the S.L hanging on for dear life.
- The Guards opened a full attack to anything and anyone on their way
- Mousavi and co responded well (with rumoured and expected behind the scnene backing of Hashemi) but have been somewhat silenced now.
- S.L having first given full support to the Guards has infact shown a shift more towards the centre by appointing people such as S. Larrijani
- The Greens backing Karoubi (not fully within the green movement and at times presenting him self as a power in its own right) attacked but these attacks are also mostly in advantage of Hashemi (Showing again some signs of a claimed Reformist Hashemi Pact) as these claims of rape and abuse are sticks Hashemi can hit his main enemy (the Guards) with
- Hashemi launched a fierce (but not yet very open) attack towards the Guards and claimed S.L. backing.
- Now the Guards have re-acted to Hashemi and have increased pressure significantly by directly attacking where it hurts the most. His family.
- We are yet to see the S.L and the Greens respond on the latest moves.
I have read many analyses about a possible pact between Hashemi and Khamanei and escape goating A.N but the reality is that A.N is not their problem he is the face of their problem.
A.N is the face of the Guards and it is the Guards that specially Hashemi (the old establishment, the Clercs) is fighting. And this is major major battle. Removing A.N is not as simple as it sounds and even then it is still one man. The Guards have their hands in so many other places. A great number of Mayors, Govenors, members of Parlement and Ministers as well Ministery of intelligence have a Guards Background and are loyal to them. Also do not for a second forget who is HOLDING THE GUNS. Another great asset the Guards have is the economical power and their influence in the Iran Economy.
Reserve your seats, get your popcorn, have toiletbreak and get comfy, This will be a long and bloody battle.
How can these people claim to be muslims? It is ramadan and they are blatantly putting on this farce of a trial. They are doing more damage to Islam than the "infidel" west could ever do. Is this Islamic Justice?
It is reprehensible to blame a victim of rape for the crime committed against him. It's a way of victimizing him all over again. Yet by saying it’s the victim’s fault that he was raped, they are saying that yes, he was raped. They aren't denying it.
The hardliners must have their reasons for proceeding with the mock trial while the rape victims are presenting their testimonies. It's like saying, "Here's how we get these confessions." Or maybe that's the idea...
florence
I wondered the same thing. Mehdi Karroubi said that they were afraid to come forward (and for good reason). How can anyone keep them safe from retaliation? Yet the victims know what they face. They have decided it is worth the risk to come forward to confirm the truth that everyone already knows
[...] goes after Rafsanjani's son Enduring America 25 Aug 2009: [...]
Afshin
Will the threat to Hashemi's children cause him to back off, or will he get mad & double down? They have been on the table all along. Putting them in jail wasn't very effective in the recent past. It's out of the question for AN's cadré do do anything worse to them, or to keep them in prison very long. There's playing with fire & then there's playing with dynamite...
Amy;
Don't expect to see Hashemi back down. Attack on Hashemi's family is going to be taken seriously, but backing down is not really going to work. Hashemi and his family know that if they back down now they are done in 3 to 5 years. It is not possible for them to amount another attack on the guards later. Time will not be kind to Hashemi clan and it will diminish their power base.
However now with the greens and people behind Mousavi and indirectly behind them and the field divided over the guards excess and the paranoia of what may happen, Hashemi has the best chance. He will not double down, its not the sharks style, but he will fight back slowly and canivingly. Expect to see the allegations come and go, and Hashemi will respond in kind once the Guards and A.N. have played their hand.
Afshin is right a 100% about the A.N. being the front face of the guards. The guards are at every level of government. The guards have guns and they have economical clout and they have spies and people at all levels. Typical person is 35 to 50 years old and they see the old school clerics and establishment as nothing but a layer stopping their expansion and growth. They want them all out, over time. They want every layer of government cleansed of all who are not of their own kind.
Two factors that have not started will help the reform and the greens.
1) Start of school year in Iran and the disruptions that will follow from this, both University and regular schools
2) Civil disobedience leading to economical division, strike and and collapse in certain sectors.
If Oil stays at around 60 to 70 a barrel for the next year, and the economy goes into semi strike, the guards will find it increasingly difficult to maintain cohesion and to maintain the current frozen status quo. Most their money comes from government oil money that is lubed over to them. Once this well dries up, once there is not billions to spread, we will see the wolves fight and eat each other out.
For now they are the most powerful faction on the scene, but the constant attack from the greens, from Hashemi, conservatives, S.L. etc. will start to weaken them over time.
Afshin is also 100% right on the second point he makes. This one is going to go for the final round. Its going to be a long one. Expect no knock out punches in the start.
Amy,
1220GMT: "After a meeting with [Mehdi] Karoubi yesterday and based on our thorough and complete investigation…..We believe the claims [of sexual abuse of detainees] are baseless.”
this was to be expected, of course.
Afshin
"- Mousavi and co ... have been somewhat silenced now."
Indeed they have, and Karroubi as well, I'm afraid (1220GMT).
Now I wonder: if Hashemi is no longer seen as supporting the green movement, doesn't he risk losing the support of the people who were ready to forgive him his past (for want of somebody else); I've read many analyses saying he's not popular, some even saying he's hated by the population;
@Amy
Hashemi is no rookie Politician who has just joind in the fight. He is as expireance and as ruthless as can be. He knew the dangers before he went in. He knew they would come after his childeren and his allies going in. They can not touch him so they get him indirectly.
The battle has now shifted from the streets to meetings, courtrooms etc. Hashemi & Co are trying to remove the Guards from positions of power. At the same time I am sure they are making plans for attacking the financial Heart of the Guards.
@ Florence Achard
In a country where leaders are few and few have power a powerfull pragmatic man like Hashemi Rafsanjjani can afford to dissapoint the masses.
Hashemi is man who is hated indeed but above that he is a man that is Feard and a man thought of being highly capable. People have that trust in him.
To understand Hashemis move one needs to take a few things into consideration.
1) He needs to be carefull in a time like this he can not make mistakes, any slipup is a stick for the guards to hit him with
2) Where lies Hashemis true power !!?
A) Finance (He can afford a bribe or two and can easily buy allies)
B) Reputation of being Capable, Pragmatic & Ruthless (NOT LOVED)
C) Influence and allies in many places within the ruling powers
D) Influence within the old establishment (Clergy)
It is that last one that really is his true power and also limits his movement. These are highly religeous people. Some or most things the Reformists stand for is for them nothing short of treason to Islam, the islamic republic and all that is holy and sacred. He needs their backing so he must speak with words that suits these old men.
@ whereismyvote
Do not underestimate the economical power of the guards outside the oil money.
They have indeed many sources of Income
- They have their own docks that run outside the Iranian customs. So they can import and export what they want when they want free of any duties. The sigarette industry for example seems to be in their hands
- Medical industry. it is claimed that 40% of all dentistries are owned by the Guards
- Construction - it seems that all major assigments for building roads, Dams, Bridges etc are going to the Guards
- Oil Projects - Next to the Oil and gas it self the projects for new fields, pipelines etc are as well going to the Guards
Even with a low oil and gas income these guys are making billions a year
Afshin;
I just ment to say that the bulk of the industries that Guards control are terribly managed and lose money. They do not have their own well run well managed money making machine, except offcourse the contraban industry they completely control. Most of their industries rely on the government or bonyads to push soft money and contracts to them. Once the government gets poor (as in the cases in the past that we can study and see) these are the first to be cut.
@ whereismyvote
Yes they are indeed vulnerable. I would say the smuggle business would be the only one that they are very comfortable with and would remain to flourish.
Is the Ahmad Tavakoli that is today calling for the re-instatement of Etemad Melli and the prosecution of Mortazavi the same Ahmad Tavakoli that criticized Karroubi's publicization of Prison rapes by the regime yesterday? That seems like an odd and sudden flip.
To follow up on Afshin's analysis: Let's play this out hypothetically and assume that, somehow, Hashemi et al., upend the IRGC/Ahmadi faction(s).
What then? My thought is this: How can you have a man so incompetent, insecure, etc. that he lets the Guards first come in, then basically take over, as Leader? In essence, after dumping Ahmadi/IRGC, don't you logically have to go after Khamenei if you're Raffers?
Great you got rid of the guards, the great threat to the Islamic Republic. How, then, can you let the man who let this happen in the first place stay in office? I don't think you can.
That leads to questions of who takes up the Leadership (Hashemi himself? Committee?), but we'll get to that later, I guess.
Re: the 1830 update:
I was going to point that out. Logically, it's hilarious. So, they've been in contact w/ Soros and friends since '97, w/ the goal of overthrowing the regime, huh? Boy, bang up job on that!
If the then-President was truly in serious contact w/ big, bad foreigners who rule the world, then, ummm, wouldn't there have been tangible results? Of course.
And the alleged '06 meeting? Um, Khatami was out of power already, fellas. Fat lot of good that meeting (which, by PURE COINCIDENCE, we're just now being told about) would have done.
@kevina
Perhaps Khamenei maybe dead by then.. Rumour has it the cancer is getting worse, starting to spread and he has not long left in him. Maybe that is the reason all parties are acting in such a rush.
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Adam,
We noted this and are trying to get more information.
S.
@Afshin
Sir its a well known fact that S.L. has prostate cancer (known by all doctors) and possibly they say he may have lung cancer (rumor)
As to the first known Cancer, it will explain his propensity to accept and condone rape in Iranian prisons. I guess he thinks if things have to go up my bottom for my checkup and survival daily, then the same should be true of the rest of the nation.
As to him being on his death bed, I don't buy it. I think only when the "chashni" of his daily cocktail is increased he will die and not a day before.