The Latest from Iran (29 August): The Stakes Are Raised

UPDATED Iran: How the Regime Constructed the “Velvet Revolution”
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”
The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays

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1820 GMT: EA correspondent Mr Johnson gives us some guidance on the change of Tehran chief prosecutor:

Regardless of Dowlatabadi's political affiliations, the replacement of Mortazavi is a sign that the establishment considers him to be a liability and perhaps dispensable as a potential scapegoat.

The main issue is whether this change is merely cosmetic or whether the establishment take a proactive approach, namely, scuttle the trials (which can be easily done because all the indictments are so flimsy that none of them can bear any legal scrutiny), and somehow solve the very public and very embarrasing and inflammatory issue of prison tortures and unmarked graves, thereby regaining some semblence of legality and law. The next few days will be extremely inportant.

1755 GMT: A reader strikes back immediately at the security force denials of involvement in post-election raids: "You can't fake live video feed. We've got evidence on several videos that basij attacked dorms in Tehran University," and offers this:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzUhJXTspcw[/youtube]

1740 GMT: This is now looking like a concerted campaign between the President and security force commanders to deny any post-election misdeeds. After Tehran's police chief denied any detainee was killed in Kahrizak prison (0845 GMT), the Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari has said the post-election death toll is 20 Basiji militia and only 9 "opponents and outlaws". Jafari denied that the Basiji were involved in the raids on university dormitories days after the election.

1715 GMT: EA's Iran analyst Mr Smith drops by to take issue with the portrayal by Tehran Bureau of an "isolated, weak, and delusional" Ahmadinejad (1310 GMT):

This lacks sources on just about all the allegations it makes and then essentially parrots the reformist line: Ahmadinejad is weak, is in trouble, is a lame duck already, etc.

While of course all of us wish that this was the case, the reality appears quite different, as we have seen no real thrust to wrestle him out of office. The Supreme Leader has only rebuked him frontally during the [former First Vice President] Mashai affair and he still has the rather remarkable opportunity of talking from official platforms such as Friday Prayers, saying things quite different from what the SL says, and still walking out relatively unscathed.

Granted, he has the same amount, or more, difficulties than any executive leader in the world would have for forming a government, but I would be very cautious in calling Ahmadinejad a has-been and that days may be counted down to his demise. Sadly, I doubt this scenario will happen anytime soon.

We shouldn't forget that the Supreme Leader, conservative critics of AN like the Larijanis, Ahmad Tavakoli (who happens to be the Larijanis' cousin), and more have essentially agreed to accept the outcome of the Presidential election as announced by the Interior ministry. Hence, they are simply jostling for political kudoes and power within the Government, more than mounting a challenge that is really geared towards removing Ahmadinejad from power.

1700 GMT: Back from an afternoon break for a wedding.

After a couple of weeks of indecision, Tehran's Chief Prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi has been replaced by Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi, head of judiciary in the southern province of Khuzestan.

The Los Angeles Times is framing Dowlatabadi as "a relatively moderate newcomer" and portraying Mortazavi's "firing" as a signal against the trials of political detainees that he oversaw. We're not sure of that interpretation --- any comments would be welcome.

1340 GMT: Our question (0445 GMT): "Does Mehdi Karroubi make another intervention on detentions and abuses?" Karroubi's answer: an open letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, offering to provide documentation and detainees who have suffered abuse.

1323 GMT: The principlist member of Parliament Ali Motahari, who has been highly critical of the Government in recent weeks, has said Ahmadinejad's remarks contest and challenge the Supreme Leader and the President must be held responsible for his deeds and words, particularly on the issue of detentions.

1315 GMT: The reformist party Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, some of whose members are among the political detainees, have strongly condemned the 4th “show trial” and called it a reminder of the medieval inquisition courts and Stalin-era tribunals. The party emphasised that the staged “trials” and false “confessions” are conspiracies to suspend the reformist parties.

1310 GMT: And, on the same theme, Muhammad Sahimi at Tehran Bureau pays great attention to the "glaring fissures [which] have emerged within the conservative and reactionary camp", albeit with the dramatic presentation of an "isolated, weak, and delusional" Ahmadinejad.

1300 GMT: It's not just Enduring America that is raising questions about the divide between the Supreme Leader and the President in light of their differing speeches on Wednesday and yesterday. The reformist website Rah-e-Sabz has noted the divergences over foreign-inspired revolution and, in particular, Ahmadinejad's denial of any security force responsibility for abuses less than 48 hours after Ayatollah Khamenei promised that anyone guilty of such abuses would be published.

1110 GMT: The Battle over the Cabinet. A prominent "conservative" member of Parliament, Ahmad Tavakoli, has said that 7 of President Ahmadinejad's 21 Ministerial nominees will fail to receive a vote of confidence. Echoing reports from yesterday, Tavakoli said all three women put forth will be rejected because of a lack of executive experience.

1040 GMT: In an interview with Etemad newspaper, Mohammad Hashemi, the brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani, said that Rafsanjani is not planning to quit leading Friday Prayers He also described how security forces beat Rafsanjani's daughter-in-law while arresting her during one of the post-election protests.

0905 GMT: Pretty slow day after yesterday's excitement. No answers to any of our questions at 0445 GMT. Internet chatter is on the call by Human Rights Watch on the new head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to "tackle rights abuses".

0845 GMT: Nothing Happened Here. More signs of an Ahmadinejad Fightback. After the President's claims yesterday that incidents at detention centres were the fault of the protest movement, rather than the security forces, the Tehran police chief, Azizollah Rajabzadeh, has explained that "no defendants were transferred to the Kahrizak detention centre without a judicial warrant and no defendant was killed" in the prison.

Oh. Well, following on the week's theme --- the Supreme Leader and the President on different pages of the script --- someone might want to tell Ayatollah Khamenei, who has admitted mistakes at Kahrizak and ordered its closure.

0515 GMT: A Follow-Up on "Velvet Revolution". After our analysis yesterday, "How the Regime Constructed the Velvet Revolution", an EA correspondent points to an interview by Ayande News with Hamid Reza Moghadam-Far, the Managing Director of Fars News Agency, and a Mr. Gharebaghi, whom Ayande claim are two of the authors of the Tehran trial indictments. Their views of the "velvet revolution" are posted in an update of the analysis.

0445 GMT: At the risk of being overdramatic, Friday was a day of two statements, that of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to and beyond the audience at Tehran's prayers and that of Mohammad Khatami to and beyond reformist leaders.

The founding assertion of each statement was that the current President/former President was ready to take the post-election crisis to a political and legal showdown with the ultimate public punishment. In Ahmadinejad's case, he was ready to press until the opposition leaders were imprisoned for a long, long time; in Khatami's, he was ready to see the "traitors" ejected from power and positions of responsibility.

What we now await, in an always-shifting conflict but one which continues to be about legitimacy, is the response of others. With respect, the protest movement is mainly an observer, with the next mass demonstration proposed for 18 September, so attention turns to political and religious leaders. Does Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies break cover, after their recent skirmish over the Tehran trial, and give any support to Khatami? Does Mehdi Karroubi make another intervention on detentions and abuses, and thus those responsibile for them, or wait for a Parliamentary response to his claims? Where is Mir Hossein Mousavi?

And, just to repeat our thought from yesterday, what does the Supreme Leader do now?

The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays

NEW Latest Iran Video: Khamenei Speech to Student Leaders (26 August)
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”

NEW Iran: Welcome to the “Velvet Revolution”

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1745 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Cabinet Woes. Press TV, from Iranian Labor News Agency, reports that the majority "principlist" bloc in Parliament is going to reject the three women among the President's 18 Ministerial nominations (albeit with some pretty weak excuses):

With regards to proposed health minister Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi, [a bloc member] said that "certain reports about her business activities had reached the bloc which altered the opinion of the members about her".

The Principlist Majlis deputy, who sits on another bloc as well, said about Sussan Keshavarz, who has been offered the education portfolio: "We have heard that she was active in the campaign headquarters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi."...

The third candidate, Fatemeh Ajorloo, who was picked for the welfare post, was rejected because she "is too good". "It would be a shame if she becomes welfare minister," said the unnamed source, presumably because the ministry is due to be disbanded in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the reformist bloc of the Majlis has decided to vote in favor of Vahid-Dastjerdi.

1420 GMT: The Day's Big (Unseen) Story? I saw this floating around yesterday --- the storyinitially came out on the technology site of the Islamic Republic News Agency and then circulated on other Iranian websites --- but it is only with the help of EA's readers (see comments below) that I could put this together.

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard), which has become just as renowned in recent years for their role in Iran's economy as for their security function, are set to buy a major stakeholding in the Iranian Telecommunications Agency.

Since 2005, Iran had planned to float the shares of the state company, which is one of three operators in the country. One of the other two is owned by Hashemi Rafsanjani, but its reach is limited to Tehran and some smaller smaller cities. The Revolutionary Guard already have a stake in Iran Cell, so if they were successful in their bid for shares of ITA, they would be in a leading position in Iran's two major cellphone providers.

This is unlikely to be a case of the Guard showing up with chequebook in hand to buy the shares. Instead, as has been the case with other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automobiles, the purchase will be made through a front company.

There is also an interesting international twist in this story. Earlier this summer, a Russian company was to be granted a license as the third national cellphone operator, but the process suddenly stalled last month (companies from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were also trying to get the license). The effective suspension is probably linked to the high process the Iranian Government was demanding, but it leaves the Revolutionary Guard in an even stronger position in the cellphone sector.

1400 GMT: In Case Anyone Really Cares. The actual address at Friday prayers in Tehran, as opposed to President Ahmadinejad's introduction, was delivered by Hojetoleslam Sadighi. His headline declaration was that the "world's exceptional crimes" are the crimes of Israel in Palestine.

1330 GMT: Today is turning into a contest of two statements and, in contrast to recent days, Western media are eagerly on top of the story. Former President Khatami's statement to reformist leaders is being juxtaposed with current President Ahmadinejad's speech at Friday prayers.

While there are a complex range of issues in this battle, from the legal issues of detentions/confessions/trials to the institutional challenges of who controls Iran's bureaucracy and security forces to the political showdown over Ahmadinejad's legitimacy, it is this sentence from Khatami that may represent the moment: "'The sacred Friday prayer podium has been given to those who...call for the punishment of prominent figures...while they are accused in the eyes of the public for committing treason themselves."

Even though Khatami was probably referring to Friday prayers past and addresses delivered by "hard-line" clerics such as Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, that sentence will be set next to Ahmadinejad's none-too-subtle call for the arrests of protest leaders.

To put an immediate question: 48 hours after trying to avert a showdown with his own statement, the Supreme Leader finds the confrontation ratcheted up several notches. What does Khamenei do now?

1200 GMT: More details are emerging of former President Khatami's statement in his meeting with leaders of the Reformist Front, via outlets such as Radio Farda and Parleman News. Khatami said that "the black cloud of worthlessness of people's votes under this regime should be eliminated" and that those who opened fire on the people on the streets should be prosecuted.

1150 GMT: Credit to Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times, who has just nailed the significance of this morning's events in his lead paragraph: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad demanded the prosecution of opposition leaders today, raising the nation's political temperature just a day and a half after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sought to cool tempers in a conciliatory speech."

1130 GMT: Fars News Agency have published a summary of Tehran's Friday prayers address by Hojetoleslam Sadighi.

1030 GMT: Press TV has now posted its English summary of the Ahmadinejad speech, featuring the call for the "severe punishment of the orchestrators of the post-election unrest" and its "painful" events.

The President is not backing away from the "velvet revolution" theme, saying that Iranian opposition leaders were "deceived by the enemy's schemes (and) did their best to undermine the high voter turnout in the election and to shake the foundations of the Islamic establishment".

The president said, "I call upon security and judicial officials to decisively and mercilessly act with those who committed inhumane acts in the guise of the friends [of the establishment] since they inflicted damage on people and tarnished the image of the establishment, security and police forces."

0915 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami, meeting members of the Reform Front, has emphasised the need for a stronger presence of the reformists in Iranian politics with continuation of their efforts for change.

0900 GMT: More on the Ahmadinejad Speech. Fars News Agency has posted its summary. The President followed long-established lines with his references to 85 percent participation in the Presidential election and the 25 million who voted for him. This was testimony to the "revolutionary values" and "originality" of Iran. Enemies were trying to separate the "Islamic" and "Republic" in this Iranian revolution; however, Ahmadinejad proclaimed that, "after more than two months", these enemies were "staggering and had lost their way home", failing in their media plans and political efforts.

There was one nice touch in the rhetoric, especially since the President needs to be careful with his references to a "velvet revolution" that the Supreme Leader has now denied. Apparently the British Foreign Minister [David Miliband] had said, when asked why Britain was involved in Iranian affairs, that otherwise work on the Islamic Republic would soon be completed.

0840 GMT: Oh, yes, Ahmadinejad also asked Parliament to show their trust with votes of confidence in his "strong, coherent, professional, and honest" Ministers.

0830 GMT: Mahmoud Speaks. And wow, what a way to begin the introduction to Friday prayers. The President has claimed that attacks on University dormitories just after the 12 June election were staged by "relatives" of students and protestors, complementing their disturbances on the streets.

These acts tried to discredit the Presidential vote, "a matter of genuine democracy unlike other staged elections in the world, where the outcome is predetermined".

0800 GMT: A stuttering start to the day. We were laid low by a server problem but there is still no breaking news to report. We're waiting for first accounts of President Ahmadinejad's introduction of Friday prayers in Tehran, which should include glowing references for his Cabinet nominees.

We've taken the time, during the server outage, to write up a special analysis on the regime's pretext of "velvet revolution" as the cause of the post-election conflict. This, of course, has been true since June, but it came home to us this week with the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh during the 4th Tehran trial. Apparently some of our colleagues (and at least one EA staffer) are now amongst the velvet revolutionaries.

The "Western" media, from The New York Times to experts like Juan Cole, are now catching up with the last major development, the Supreme Leader's speech from Wednesday. (Unless it's The Washington Post, who apparently no longer care about Iran unless the story is about Tehran's nuclear threat; they are silent on Iran today.)

The Latest from Iran: Responding to the Trial (26 August)

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume
The 4th Tehran Trial: The Tehran Bureau Summary
Video: The 4th Tehran Trial (25 August)
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani

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2145 GMT: The Tehran Times has published an English summary of the letter from the Rafsanjani office striking back at former 1st Vice President and current Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1225 and 1545 GMT):

“Mr. Mashaii’s record in making incorrect and illogical statements is so clear that there is no need for a reply,” but in light of the fact that the person who has made such fabrications was supposed to become the president’s first vice president and is currently the chief of staff of the Presidential Office, it seems that there is “a very complex conspiracy” to create conflict among the pillars of the establishment, part of the statement read.

The statement also called Rahim-Mashaii’s remarks hallucinations and added that the Supreme Leader had earlier warned the country’s officials about such hallucinations.

2110 GMT: Associated Press has published an English summary of Ayatollah Montazeri's open letter (see 1605 GMT): "The biggest oppression ... is despotic treatment of the people in the name of Islam. I hope the responsible authorities give up the deviant path they are pursuing and restore the trampled rights of the people....I hope authorities...have the courage to announce that this ruling system is neither a republic nor Islamic and that nobody has the right to express opinion or criticism."

2055 GMT: The Rafsanjani Fightback. Remember the former President's delay in passing Mehdi Karroubi's 29 July letter asking for an investigation of abuse claims? Well, after yesterday's trial events, compare and contrast this news: Rafsanjani has passed the cases of two rape victims to the Supreme Leader, to Ayatollah Montazeri, and to Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq.

2000 GMT: Some members of Parliament are objecting to the composition of the special National Security Committee investigating post-election events such as abuse of detainees. Their concern is that three pro-Ahmadinejad members of the committee have already asserted in interviews that the prisoners are in good condition and that there has been no torture, rape, or secret burials.

1945 GMT: Fars News has now published (as has Parleman News) a full summary of the Supreme Leader's statement, initially given to a meeting of the Student Leaders of the Islamic Revolution. It contains the extracts we've noted below, within this context: Ayatollah Khamenei noted incidents such as raids on University dormitories and clashes in the Central Bazaar area soon after the election but put these within the context of the legitimacy in which 85 percent of the population participated.

1915 GMT: Reuters adds an important proviso on the Khamenei statement. Just because he is stepping away from the "velvet revolution" charge does not mean he is giving complete absolution to the demonstrators: "There is no doubt that this movement, whether its leaders know or not, was planned in advance."

The Reuters framing also indicates that the Supreme Leader may not have been rejecting the current trials but drawing a line against any more arrests of key opposition figures.

1900 GMT: Want Some More? How about a possible slap-down of the trials and detentions from the Supreme Leader? "We should not proceed in dealing with those behind the protests based on rumours and guesswork. The judiciary should only give rulings based on solid evidence, not on circumstantial evidence."

And let's add a warning that some of those involved in detentions and violence against protestors may face their own reckoning: "I appreciate the work of the police and Basij [militia] in dealing with the riots, but this does not mean that some of the crimes which occurred will not be dealt with and anyone who is a member of those two who committed a fault should be dealt with."

1845 GMT: An Important Signal? The Supreme Leader has finally emerged after yesterday's trial, and it looks like he may be putting some distance between himself and President Ahmadinejad. In a statement read on state TV, Ayatollah Khamenei declared:

I do not accuse the leaders of the recent incidents to be subordinate to the foreigners, like the United States and Britain, since this issue has not been proven for me. This plot was defeated, since fortunately our enemies still do not understand the issue in Iran. Our enemies were given a slap in face by the Iranian nation, but they are still hopeful and they are pursuing the issue.

It is one thing for the Supreme Leader to rebuff the President's attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani, but this appears to be a message to back off the campaign against the reformists.

1605 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri has re-entered the political arena with an open letter: "For worldly gains, gentlemen have closed their eyes and ears and hearts on all facts. They should have courage and announce that this regime is neither Islamic nor Republic."

1555 GMT: A Crack in the Coverage. Press TV English's website, in contrast to the anti-reformist drumbeat of much of Iran's state media, has an extended feature on the refusal of defendant Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the deputy head of the Islamic Iran Participant Front (see yesterday's updates, 1720 GMT) to confess after yesterday's trial: "As a reformist I have always held clear positions. I have always opposed all forms of illegal activities and my stance has not changed."

1545 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani Fightback. The response of Rafsanjani's office to the statements of former 1st Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1225 GMT) has not only called them pure fabrications but has stated, "Mashai and Ahmadinejad must defend their accusations in an honest and qualified court."

1535 GMT: Who Will Have Dinner with Mahmoud? Understandably, there has been much glee amongst opponents of the President at the news that only 20 of 290 MPs showed up at his "breaking of the fast" meal on Sunday. An EA correspondent sends in a more accurate and more important assessment:

Instead of lobbying the conservative faction as a whole over his Cabinet choices, Ahmadinejad has decided to enter into individual negotiations with MPs from economically challenged areas and remote provinces.

He has been trying to woo these MPs by inviting them for Eftar, the evening meal of Ramadan, at the Presidential residence. However, although the number of these parties have increased, most MPs have given Ahmadinejad the cold shoulder. Only 1/3 of the MPs from economically-challenged areas and remote provinces have broken bread with the president. One of the pro-Ahmadinejad MPs has declared that eight of the suggested ministers lack basic qualifications for attaining confidence votes.

1520 GMT: 24 hours after the latest post-election trial, Mehdi Karroubi has written to the new head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to congratulate him and to express his hope, "considering the sensitive political and social conditions", that Larijani will ensure "the implementation of the Constitution, the legal defense of freedom and citizenship rights, and the maintenance legal justice to defend the dignity of the system".

1240 GMT: EA Public Service Announcement. Initially we were going to bring out a detailed analysis today of the Tehran trial and its impact, but we're watching carefully how certain groups and individuals, especially Hashemi Rafsanjani, manoeuvre. So the special analysis, "Iran Showdown: The Regime's Battle on Three Fronts", will be posted Thursday morning.

1225 GMT: And That's Not All. Rafsanjani, or those allied with him, have also struck back in a statement condemning recent remarks by the former First Vice President and Ahmadinejad ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1210 GMT: Picking up on the Rafsanjani fightback against the charges in the Tehran trial, we should note that Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, did not merely proclaim his innocence. He also turned the allegations of corruption and mismanagement back against the President, claiming that Tehran had "lost" 340 billion tomans (almost $3.5 million) when Ahmadinejad was Mayor of the city.

1130 GMT: The offer of former President Mohammad Khatami has issued a statement criticising "confessions" in the Tehran trials, obtained under "extraordinary circumstances", as invalid and rejecting the specific charges that were made against him. (Reuters has an English-language summary.)

0815 GMT: The Disappearing American. The US media's coverage of the Tehran trial yesterday was poor, and reporters still have no clue about the significance of the testimony about the Rafsanjani family. Even so, there appears to be an extraordinary gap in their coverage.

When French national Clotilde Reiss appeared in an earlier trial, she was the focus of attention from "Western" press. However, when academic Kian Tajbakhsh, a dual Iran-US national, not only appeared as a defendant but testified yesterday, the American media seem to have been asleep. CNN refers to Tajbakhsh only in the context of Saeed Hajjarian's testimony (MSNBC does briefly mention Tajbaksh's statement). The New York Times leaves the academic out of their summary.

We hope to have a full analysis later of how the Iranian regime is using Tajbakhsh, as well as the Iranian defendants, to construct the "velvet revolution" that is supposedly threatening Tehran.

0805 GMT: Irony Alert. Less than 24 hours after Tuesday's trial, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, the former Minster of Intelligence and Iran's new Prosecutor General, has declared: "The performance of justice must start with the judiciary."

0800 GMT: Tuesday's Other Court Appearance. Hossein Karroubi, the son of Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, was summoned to court to answer charges about his involvement in post-election conflict. He later spoke with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: "They brought up several charges against me, including propaganda against the establishment, spreading prostitution, agitating public opinion, attempting to [assist] rioters, and so on. I responded that the country's youth had shed its blood in the streets, and young detainees in prison had been killed in the worst possible ways. We talked about what these things [mean] for the health of the [state]. They let me go after I paid bail."

Hossein Karorubi added that Monday's discussion between his father and members of Parliament over Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of abuse of detainees was "a very good meeting. Both the parliament members and Mr. Karroubi were satisfied....They first have to investigate the four cases, then Mr. Karroubi will present other cases."

0650 GMT: No to a Presidential Bright Idea. Ahmadinejad, in a move which I am sure is unconnected with current politics, proposed that working hours in governmental offices and banks be reduced during Ramadan by more than three hours each day. Speaker of Parliament Larijani squashed the ploy, however, declaring that the proposal was "against the constitution".

0640 GMT: More on the Secret Burials of Protestors. In this video interview with BBC Persian, Hanif Mazroui, the editor-in-chief of Norooz Online, has offered additional evidence of how government officials forced the staff of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to inter 40 bodies of slain demonstrators in mid-July.

Yesterday the managing director of the cemetery was fired by the Government, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has ordered that a group of MPs investigate the allegations.

0630 GMT: The next public stage in the battle? It could be this Friday's prayers in Tehran.

The big event will not be the prayer address, led by Hojatoleslam Sadighi. Instead, it will be the introduction to prayers by President Ahmadinejad. No doubt there will be politics behind (and perhaps in front of) religion, with the President following up on the attacks of the trial and making the case for his Cabinet 48 hours before Parliament begins voting on his Ministerial nominations.

But, further down the religious and political roads, the Friday prayer service to watch will be on the last Friday of Ramadan, which I think will be 18 Spetember. On Qods Day, the prayer leader will be Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0625 GMT: It seems so long ago, but it was only last Saturday that Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement to the Expediency Council prompted feverish speculation on whether he was giving in to the regime, with his call for unity behind the Supreme Leader, or setting up his next manoeuvre. To help clarify matters --- and read into that whatever you wish --- Rafsanjani's website has put up the audio of the former President's statement.

600 GMT: We should get a sense today of the effectiveness of the regime's dramatic move yesterday, using the Tehran trial not only as an all-out assault on the reformist movement but against the challenge of Hashemi Rafsanjani. We're working on a full analysis for later today. (Here are a couple of teasers: did the Supreme Leader support the assault? And how will the conservatives and principlists, with a majority inside Parliament and powerful figures outside it, react given their recent disquiet with President Ahmadinejad's approach on detentions?)

Meanwhile, another clue from the trial pointing to Rafsanjani as a primary target for Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard. The journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, a key figure in the Kargozaran party linked to Rafsanjani, was brought out again --- he had "confessed" on national television after the first trial --- to attack the former President's June letter to the Supreme Leader that raised concerns about manipulation of the election. The "criticism was inappropriate" and "not suitable for national publication".

The Latest from Iran (20 August): Grinding to a Halt

The Latest from Iran (19 August): Challenges in Parliament and from Prisons

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1810 GMT: Recognise Us Because We're Really Nice. There have been signs this week that the Ahmadinejad Government would be more flexible in its position on the nuclear programme, and today this came from the Associated Press, via unnamed diplomats:

Iran has lifted a ban and allowed UN inspectors to visit a nearly-completed nuclear reactor. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency visited the reactor in Arak after a year-long ban...Iran agreed last week to expand uranium enrichment monitoring of the site.

1735 GMT: Ahmadinejad and the IRGC Factor. As we wait for the fallout from the President's televised speech on his Cabinet selections, here's how American anlaysts get it right. And wrong.

The appointment of Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense has been noticed because he was commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps in the late 1980s/early 1990s. So, it is said, Vahidi's appointment indicates a consolidation of the relationship between the President and the IRGC in the face of opposition not only from "reformists" but from "conservative" and "principlist" elements.

Right.

And, the analysts continue, this indicates that Ahmadinejad plans to continue and maybe accelerate Iran's material support for pro-Iranian parties and militias in the Middle East.

Wrong.

This, of course, may be a consequence over time of Vahidi's appointment but to assert --- without any evidence --- that the external dimension is more important than the President's manoeuvres in an internal crisis smacks of a view that revolves around Washington, rather than Tehran.

1725 GMT: Worst. Claim. Ever: It's All Hillary's Fault. Iran's police chief of police Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam has said that the "confessions" of political detainees must be authentic because their mastermind, Hillary Clinton, has openly revealed their plans: "Some say that the police has extracted confessions by force, but I tell them: No-one has extracted confession out of Mrs. Clinton, yet she reveals all issues freely."

While Ahmadi-Moqaddam's statement should be called out as a crass cover-up of the state's treatment of prisoners, it does point to the lack of wisdom in Clinton's posturing --- motivated primarily to counter domestic charges that the Administration had stood back from post-election events --- when she told CNN earlier this month that the US Government did much "behind the scenes" for Iranian protesters.

1450 GMT: Reuters has now picked up on the problems for Ahmadinejad's Ministerial appointments in Parliament, adding this quote from Speaker Ali Larijani on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: "Those nominated by the president for government posts must have sufficient expertise and experience, otherwise a great deal of the country's energy would be wasted."

1410 GMT: Creating Some Political Space? Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking to the Islamic Society of Engineers, has declared that the primary duty of Government is "justice so human beings may perfect themselves" and that it was essential for people to have "economic, cultural, and political mobility".

1340 GMT: Tonight's the Night. After the stop-start process of naming his Cabinet, President Ahmadinejad takes to the national airwaves in a broadcast just after the 9 p.m. news. He may do so with a bit of nervousness: protestors are planning to drown out the President with "Allahu Akhbars", and Ahmadinejad's previous broadcast didn't go so well. Remember his defeat at the hands of the Giant Moth? (If you missed it, here's the video.)

1150 GMT: Another Shot at Ahmadinejad. Jomhoori Eslami reports that an Iranian court has temporarily suspended former First Vice President and current Presdential Chief of Staff Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai for two months because of charges of financial misconduct.

1140 GMT: The Fight Begins? The Deputy Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has warned that at leave five of President Ahmadinejad's choices for Ministers may not receive votes of confidence. Reuters has English-language summary of report.

1100 GMT: No Newspaper is Safe. Even the hard-line "conservative" Kayhan could be banned from newsstands. According to the Iranian Labor News Agency, the same court that banned Etemade Melli has ordered Saeed Mortazavi, the Tehran Prosecutor General, to halt the publication of Kayhan, because of the failure of its editor, Hossein Shariatmadari, to answer two court summons. Shariatmadari was taken to court by Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti and others over the "publication of repeated lies" against the candidate.

0720 GMT: The English-language version of the Iran Parliament website has just released the names of the 18 ministers whom it says were submitted by President Ahmadinejad to the Parliament "on Wednesday". There are no surprises amongst the names, which we revealed in yesterday's updates.

0620 GMT: Reading Another Change. We reported yesterday that the new head of Iran's judiciary, Saeed Larijani, had given a clear thumb-in-the-eye to the President with the appointment of Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, the Minister of Intelligence fired by Ahmadinejad, as Iran's Prosecutor General.

Larijani is also replacing Tehran's chief prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi, with Morteza Bakhtiari, the former head of Iran's prison service and former Governor of Isfahan. The timing is a bit curious, since Mortazavi was seen as the legal force behind the prosecution of post-election political detainees, and we are in the middle of the Tehran trials.

So is Larijani asserting his authority against the President? Or is the simple explanatio n that Mortazavi is moving to a post in Ahmadinejad's executive? And will there be an impact, short-term or long-term, on detentions and prosecutions?

0540 GMT: Meanwhile, a foreign-policy breakthrough for the President and his Government received surprisingly little attention. Syrian President Bashir al-Assad was in Tehran for a chat.

The cover story was that Assad came to Iran to broker the release of French national Clotilde Reiss, arrested and still awaiting trial on bail. Iranian state media preferred the image of election legitimacy, quoting Assad's greeting to Ahmadinejad, “I’ve come here today to personally convey my warm congratulations to you and the Iranian nation. I believe what happened in Iran was an important development and a great lesson to foreigners."

The overriding significance, however, is in the Associated Press headline, "Iran’s supreme leader reinforces Syria alliance." Ahmadinejad, who has been ostracised internationally since his trip to Moscow just after the election, will get a symbolic boost; however, it is unclear whether Assad was reinforcing the alliance or holding it in suspension. Before 12 June, it appeared that the Tehran-Damascus relationship was an important influence on questions from the Israel-Palestine dynamic (and the in-fighting within the Palestinian leadership), the situation in Lebanon, and the wider state of play (political and economic) between Iran and Arab States. How much of it that continues while Ahmadinejad's real rather than symbolic legitimacy is still doubted?

0500 GMT: We took a break last night to recharge our batteries and return this morning not to news but to two non-events.

The first non-event was President Ahmadinejad's to formally submit his Ministerial nominations to Parliament by yesterday's deadline. In the morning, all appeared to be almost complete: Mehr News was reporting three names remained to be confirmed, and then Tabnak said only one, the Minister of Justice. At 1:22 p.m. local time, a few hours before the deadline, the English-language site of the Parliament recapped the news.

And then nothing. There was a clue that all was not well when the President's Wednesday night national broadcast was postponed for 24 hours but, otherwise, updates stopped as the deadline came and went. (Press TV's website is still stuck on its Wednesday morning headline, "More Ahmadinejad cabinet nominees revealed".) Then, just after 10 p.m., the Farsi-language version of the Parliament website reported simply, "The letter of the President still has not come."

No one is offering the reason for the delay, but the obvious speculation is that some of the names in the list leaked by the media were unacceptable to members of Parliament. And so we enter today, ready to analyse but with no way forward yet on the questions: will Ahmadinejad make concessions and change some of his selections? Will there be any punishment for his failure to meet the deadline? Will any high-ranking "conservative" or "principlist" MPs come out publicly against the President?

However, it is the other non-event, largely missed by media, which is occupying us this morning. Yesterday the Executive Committee of the Assembly of Experts postponed the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due in about 10-12 days. Our question from yesterday's update, "Who pushed for the delay?", is still unanswered. To get an idea of the stakes involved in this answer, consider the make-up of the Executive Committee: Hashemi Rafsanjani aligned against Ahmadinejead supporters Hashemi Shahroudi (former Head of Judiciary), Mohammad Yazdi (Rafsanjani's foe within the Assembly), Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi (Prosecutor General), and Ahmad Khatami (the hard-line temporary leader of Friday prayers in Tehran).

An EA correspondent offers this assessment, leading to an important but so far overlooked point:

The excuse that the Assembly meeting was delayed because of Ramadan [which starts on Saturday] appears as exactly that, an excuse and nothing more. Parliament will debate and possibly block Ahmadinejad's ministerial nominees well into Ramadan, Government will carry on business, and I am sure the trials will not go into recess for a month.

So what seems to be the case here is someone simply unwilling to have the session happen so soon. The latest letters sent by the former MPs and the Qom ulama [clerics] might have precipitated the case. They either blew the lid off Rafsanjani's machinations or persuaded the Supreme Leader to force a postponement in order to work on the Assembly members and make sure they don't spell trouble for him. At any rate, it just adds to all the shocks that have hit the orderly functioning of state institutions after June 12.

Amidst all the demonstrations, the detentions and trials, and the political machinations, the Iranian Government is effectively suspended. And the longer that situation persists, the more the question emerges: when is there a breaking point, not of showdown in the streets or in the Parliament, but in day-to-day life?

The Latest on Iran (10 August): Threats and Concessions

NEW Iran: The Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani on Abuse of Detainees
UPDATED More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday’s Prayers?
Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Battle in Parliament
The Latest from Iran (9 August): Once More on Trial

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1830 GMT. Sinking. Ship. Etc. Further to our news that members of Parliament have criticised President Ahmadinejad's choice for Minister of Defence, Sadegh Masouli, two MPs have gone public with more revelations of trouble. Javad Arianmanesh, an MP from Mashhad, has stated that the probability of a vote of confidence for Mahsouli, who is the current Minister of Interior, is very weak, and Mehrabian, Aliahmadi and Eskandari (Ministers of Industry, Education, and Agriculture) are also unlikely to go through. Mr. Hosseini, the MP from Gharaveh and member of the Parliamentary Energy Commission, has asserted, "In these conditions more that half of the ministers will not get a vote of confidence".

In these circumstances, Ahmadinejad's selection of Masouli was either very brave or very stupid: the Interior Ministry had difficulty getting confirmation last year amidst a running battle in the background between Ahmadinejad and Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani.

1710 GMT: Aftab News is repeating the assertion that Rafsanjani will not lead the Friday prayers. Still no comment from the former President's website.

1705 GMT: In a new directive the Intelligence Ministry has warned the media to "refrain from publishing information that has been classified as top secret material by this ministry....This includes documents, identity of Intelligence Ministry personnel, information about the hierarchical framework of Intelligence Ministry etc....Ignoring the rules and regulations in this matter would lead to legal prosecution."

I am sure this announcement has nothing to do whatsoever with the revelations of the mass firings by the President of Ministry of Intelligence personnel.

1700 GMT: Etemade Melli, the newspaper affiliated with Mehdi Karroubi, has jumped in on the controversy over Hashemi Rafsanjani, considering the statement from the Friday prayers committee: "It seems that such a decision [Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran] has been made because of concerns that the last blatant display of popular support that greeted Rafsanjani last time will be repeated. The question remains that was this decision made [by the committee] due to governmental pressure or that Rafsanjani himself decided to not lead the prayers".

1635 GMT: The Trouble Begins. Reports are emerging that members of Parliament have rejected President Ahmadinejad's choice for Minister of Defence.

1615 GMT: Larijani and the Investigations Gambit. From the start of the crisis, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani has positioned himself against the Government by pressing for inquiries into claimed abuses by the security services.

He is doing so again but with a potentially more significant intervention. Speaking to journalists on Monday, he said that Mehdi Karroubi's graphic claims of mistreatment of detainees, including rapes of women and young men, must be investigated. Larijani's statement is even more significant because Karroubi's claims were initially in a private letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. The letter was published yesterday (see our updates) in the Karroubi-affiliated newspaper Etemade Melli.

1510 GMT: Now the muddle over the Revolutionary Guard's threat to arrest Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi. Our translation of the latest statement from the Guard is "In the holy establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, legal methods have been defined to deal with those who break the law and it is the duty of the judiciary to respond to these issues.”

Does that constitute, as we summarised at 1330 GMT, a call that the opposition leaders should be "brought to justice"?

1500 GMT: Confusion. The top two stories today --- Rafsanjani's status for Friday prayers in Tehran and the Revolutionary Guard's statement about opposition leaders --- are now caught up in political muddle and possibly intrigue.

First, Rafsanjani. As we reported at 1335 GMT, the Iranian Labor News Agency is reporting that Rafsanjani's office has announced the former President will not lead Friday prayers. BBC Persian is reporting, without referring to ILNA, that Rafsanjavi has stepped aside. CNN is even more blatant (and thus far from completely accurate): “A powerful former president of Iran who has become a critic of the regime will not lead Friday prayers this week, despite earlier reports that he would, his office said Monday.”

However, ILNA's article is curiously close to the line set out by the head of the Friday prayers, Seyed Reza Taghavi (1120 GMT), and there is no statement on Rafsanjani's website. It is also worth remembering that, before Rafsanjani led prayers on 17 July, there were false reports on state media that he had withdrawn.

Interpretation for the moment? Until there is confirmation from Rafsanjani's own people, this should be treated as an attempt either to bump the former President into stepping down or to mislead people that he will not be appearing.

1335 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency is claiming that Rafsanjani's office has issued a statement saying the former President will not lead Friday prayers this week. for "the prevention of political conflict."

1330 GMT: Correction --- The Revolutionary Guard Stands Firm? This is being quite a complex, even confusing, but important story. A reader updates that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, while denying that IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari asked for the detention of opposition leaders, has NOT withdrawn the article written for its journal by the head of the political office, Yudollah Javani. Indeed, the article is still prominently displayed on the journal's website.

In other words, the general position is still that the "ringleaders" of the post-election disturbances should be brought to justice, although the head of the IRGC is not asking --- at this point --- for specific arrests.

1120 GMT: Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the commitee for Friday prayers committee, has said Hashemi  Rafsanjani will not lead this Friday's service in Tehran "to prevent political manipulation".

0930 GMT: Is Kahrizak Still Open? We had heard a disturbing rumour over the last few days about the Kahrizak prison, where detainees were abused and some killed and whose closure was announced by the Supreme Leader.

Now, less than a day after the head of the prison was arrested for his role in the treatment of detainees (0540 GMT), Mowj-e-sabz, the outlet of the Green movement, carries the story: "Kahrizak Detention Facility Is Still Functioning".

Unconfirmed reports from inside Iran, passed to Enduring America, claim the prison still has 1200 detainees.

0815 GMT: We've just posted a separate EA exclusive on the developing battle between President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Parliament.

0800 GMT: I won't dare say it yet, but another Enduring America correspondent will, "The denial [of the threats to arrest opposition leaders] may be a signal that parts of the Revolutionary Guard are not supporting Ahmadinejad and Khamenei 100%. Just as there is a rift between the conservative fractions, there are also fractures in the Guard."

0740 GMT: The Revolutionary Guard Retreat. The Public Relations Office of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards has issued a statement denouncing "the efforts of some foreign media to attribute statements to General Mohammad Ali Jafari with regards to trying and sentencing some of the presidential candidates and other individuals". The statement continues, "What these media have said is media deviousness and is completely untrue.....In the holy establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, legal methods have been defined to deal with those who break the law and it is the duty of the judiciary to respond to these issues."

Although the statement does not refer specifically to the Javani article that we analysed below (0540 GMT), that presumably is also now thrown in the bin. So....

Why did the Revolutionary Guard back down on their weekend threats?

0540 GMT: A relatively quiet start to the day, so news coverage is dominated by yesterday's threat to arrest Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. The warning was issued by the head of the political office of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Yadollah Javani in an article in the IRGC's weekly journal: “If Mousavi, Khatami, [Ayatollah Mohammad] Mousavi Khoeiniha [Iran's prosecutor general after the Islamic Revolution], and Karroubi are the main suspects believed to have been behind the velvet coup in Iran, which they are, we expect the judiciary ... to go after them, arrest them, put them on trial and punish them according to the law."

Discussion of the Javani statement spread quickly, buttressed by a report in a Dutch newspaper that an arrest warrant had already been issued for Mousavi. According to Afshan Ellian, an Iranian professor now living in the Netherlands, his "reliable sources" said, "It is a carte blanche: [the authorities] are free to decide when and how they want to execute the arrest."

Such stories, while dramatic, should be seen more as political pressure rather than as the signal for the detention of the opposition leaders. Indeed, Javani's article can be read as an admission that the Revolutionary Guard, after two months of protests, is feeling the pressure. Unable to crack the opposition by responding to "illegal" demonstrations with violence and detentions, facing growing resentment of President Ahmadinejad amongst "conservatives", and caught up in a bureaucratic war in areas like the Ministry of Intelligence, the IRGC is lashing out. In the evolving grand scheme of manoeuvres, the threat is a secondary support for the main public challenge of the Tehran trials.

It is notable that, apart from the IRGC, only a small if vocal Parliamentary group is pressing for the arrests. And it is also notable that one name which is never mentioned as a possible detainee is Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Meanwhile, the other story carrying over to this morning is the Government's concession with its firing and arrest of the head of the Kahrizak detention centre. The sudden move, announced yesterday afternoon, was and still is easy to read. It is both a tactical step to limit pressure --- if the head of Kahrizak is given up, then others like Iran's police chief may not have to go --- and a strategic step to show that the Government is listening to public concerns over detentions.

The carrot-and-stick approach is likely to continue, but its success may rest on the answers to two question. Can the regime hold up, for the Iranian public, both its limited but symbolic admissions that some "good" Iranians suffered from rogue cases in rogue prisons and its line that a minority of its citizens must be punished for the "foreign plot" against Tehran? If so, then Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami don't have to be arrested; they just have to take on the image of internal leaders of the overseas plan.

And can the regime split off Rafsanjani, meeting some of his public concerns and looking for a private compromise on his role (and that of President Ahmadinejad) within the system, from those other opposition leaders?