The Latest from Iran (20 August): Grinding to a Halt

The Latest from Iran (19 August): Challenges in Parliament and from Prisons

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1810 GMT: Recognise Us Because We're Really Nice. There have been signs this week that the Ahmadinejad Government would be more flexible in its position on the nuclear programme, and today this came from the Associated Press, via unnamed diplomats:

Iran has lifted a ban and allowed UN inspectors to visit a nearly-completed nuclear reactor. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency visited the reactor in Arak after a year-long ban...Iran agreed last week to expand uranium enrichment monitoring of the site.

1735 GMT: Ahmadinejad and the IRGC Factor. As we wait for the fallout from the President's televised speech on his Cabinet selections, here's how American anlaysts get it right. And wrong.

The appointment of Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense has been noticed because he was commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps in the late 1980s/early 1990s. So, it is said, Vahidi's appointment indicates a consolidation of the relationship between the President and the IRGC in the face of opposition not only from "reformists" but from "conservative" and "principlist" elements.

Right.

And, the analysts continue, this indicates that Ahmadinejad plans to continue and maybe accelerate Iran's material support for pro-Iranian parties and militias in the Middle East.

Wrong.

This, of course, may be a consequence over time of Vahidi's appointment but to assert --- without any evidence --- that the external dimension is more important than the President's manoeuvres in an internal crisis smacks of a view that revolves around Washington, rather than Tehran.

1725 GMT: Worst. Claim. Ever: It's All Hillary's Fault. Iran's police chief of police Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam has said that the "confessions" of political detainees must be authentic because their mastermind, Hillary Clinton, has openly revealed their plans: "Some say that the police has extracted confessions by force, but I tell them: No-one has extracted confession out of Mrs. Clinton, yet she reveals all issues freely."

While Ahmadi-Moqaddam's statement should be called out as a crass cover-up of the state's treatment of prisoners, it does point to the lack of wisdom in Clinton's posturing --- motivated primarily to counter domestic charges that the Administration had stood back from post-election events --- when she told CNN earlier this month that the US Government did much "behind the scenes" for Iranian protesters.

1450 GMT: Reuters has now picked up on the problems for Ahmadinejad's Ministerial appointments in Parliament, adding this quote from Speaker Ali Larijani on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: "Those nominated by the president for government posts must have sufficient expertise and experience, otherwise a great deal of the country's energy would be wasted."

1410 GMT: Creating Some Political Space? Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking to the Islamic Society of Engineers, has declared that the primary duty of Government is "justice so human beings may perfect themselves" and that it was essential for people to have "economic, cultural, and political mobility".

1340 GMT: Tonight's the Night. After the stop-start process of naming his Cabinet, President Ahmadinejad takes to the national airwaves in a broadcast just after the 9 p.m. news. He may do so with a bit of nervousness: protestors are planning to drown out the President with "Allahu Akhbars", and Ahmadinejad's previous broadcast didn't go so well. Remember his defeat at the hands of the Giant Moth? (If you missed it, here's the video.)

1150 GMT: Another Shot at Ahmadinejad. Jomhoori Eslami reports that an Iranian court has temporarily suspended former First Vice President and current Presdential Chief of Staff Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai for two months because of charges of financial misconduct.

1140 GMT: The Fight Begins? The Deputy Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has warned that at leave five of President Ahmadinejad's choices for Ministers may not receive votes of confidence. Reuters has English-language summary of report.

1100 GMT: No Newspaper is Safe. Even the hard-line "conservative" Kayhan could be banned from newsstands. According to the Iranian Labor News Agency, the same court that banned Etemade Melli has ordered Saeed Mortazavi, the Tehran Prosecutor General, to halt the publication of Kayhan, because of the failure of its editor, Hossein Shariatmadari, to answer two court summons. Shariatmadari was taken to court by Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti and others over the "publication of repeated lies" against the candidate.

0720 GMT: The English-language version of the Iran Parliament website has just released the names of the 18 ministers whom it says were submitted by President Ahmadinejad to the Parliament "on Wednesday". There are no surprises amongst the names, which we revealed in yesterday's updates.

0620 GMT: Reading Another Change. We reported yesterday that the new head of Iran's judiciary, Saeed Larijani, had given a clear thumb-in-the-eye to the President with the appointment of Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, the Minister of Intelligence fired by Ahmadinejad, as Iran's Prosecutor General.

Larijani is also replacing Tehran's chief prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi, with Morteza Bakhtiari, the former head of Iran's prison service and former Governor of Isfahan. The timing is a bit curious, since Mortazavi was seen as the legal force behind the prosecution of post-election political detainees, and we are in the middle of the Tehran trials.

So is Larijani asserting his authority against the President? Or is the simple explanatio n that Mortazavi is moving to a post in Ahmadinejad's executive? And will there be an impact, short-term or long-term, on detentions and prosecutions?

0540 GMT: Meanwhile, a foreign-policy breakthrough for the President and his Government received surprisingly little attention. Syrian President Bashir al-Assad was in Tehran for a chat.

The cover story was that Assad came to Iran to broker the release of French national Clotilde Reiss, arrested and still awaiting trial on bail. Iranian state media preferred the image of election legitimacy, quoting Assad's greeting to Ahmadinejad, “I’ve come here today to personally convey my warm congratulations to you and the Iranian nation. I believe what happened in Iran was an important development and a great lesson to foreigners."

The overriding significance, however, is in the Associated Press headline, "Iran’s supreme leader reinforces Syria alliance." Ahmadinejad, who has been ostracised internationally since his trip to Moscow just after the election, will get a symbolic boost; however, it is unclear whether Assad was reinforcing the alliance or holding it in suspension. Before 12 June, it appeared that the Tehran-Damascus relationship was an important influence on questions from the Israel-Palestine dynamic (and the in-fighting within the Palestinian leadership), the situation in Lebanon, and the wider state of play (political and economic) between Iran and Arab States. How much of it that continues while Ahmadinejad's real rather than symbolic legitimacy is still doubted?

0500 GMT: We took a break last night to recharge our batteries and return this morning not to news but to two non-events.

The first non-event was President Ahmadinejad's to formally submit his Ministerial nominations to Parliament by yesterday's deadline. In the morning, all appeared to be almost complete: Mehr News was reporting three names remained to be confirmed, and then Tabnak said only one, the Minister of Justice. At 1:22 p.m. local time, a few hours before the deadline, the English-language site of the Parliament recapped the news.

And then nothing. There was a clue that all was not well when the President's Wednesday night national broadcast was postponed for 24 hours but, otherwise, updates stopped as the deadline came and went. (Press TV's website is still stuck on its Wednesday morning headline, "More Ahmadinejad cabinet nominees revealed".) Then, just after 10 p.m., the Farsi-language version of the Parliament website reported simply, "The letter of the President still has not come."

No one is offering the reason for the delay, but the obvious speculation is that some of the names in the list leaked by the media were unacceptable to members of Parliament. And so we enter today, ready to analyse but with no way forward yet on the questions: will Ahmadinejad make concessions and change some of his selections? Will there be any punishment for his failure to meet the deadline? Will any high-ranking "conservative" or "principlist" MPs come out publicly against the President?

However, it is the other non-event, largely missed by media, which is occupying us this morning. Yesterday the Executive Committee of the Assembly of Experts postponed the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due in about 10-12 days. Our question from yesterday's update, "Who pushed for the delay?", is still unanswered. To get an idea of the stakes involved in this answer, consider the make-up of the Executive Committee: Hashemi Rafsanjani aligned against Ahmadinejead supporters Hashemi Shahroudi (former Head of Judiciary), Mohammad Yazdi (Rafsanjani's foe within the Assembly), Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi (Prosecutor General), and Ahmad Khatami (the hard-line temporary leader of Friday prayers in Tehran).

An EA correspondent offers this assessment, leading to an important but so far overlooked point:

The excuse that the Assembly meeting was delayed because of Ramadan [which starts on Saturday] appears as exactly that, an excuse and nothing more. Parliament will debate and possibly block Ahmadinejad's ministerial nominees well into Ramadan, Government will carry on business, and I am sure the trials will not go into recess for a month.

So what seems to be the case here is someone simply unwilling to have the session happen so soon. The latest letters sent by the former MPs and the Qom ulama [clerics] might have precipitated the case. They either blew the lid off Rafsanjani's machinations or persuaded the Supreme Leader to force a postponement in order to work on the Assembly members and make sure they don't spell trouble for him. At any rate, it just adds to all the shocks that have hit the orderly functioning of state institutions after June 12.

Amidst all the demonstrations, the detentions and trials, and the political machinations, the Iranian Government is effectively suspended. And the longer that situation persists, the more the question emerges: when is there a breaking point, not of showdown in the streets or in the Parliament, but in day-to-day life?

The Latest from Iran (16 August): New Challenge to Khamenei?

The Latest from Iran (17 August): Waiting for the Next Manoeuvre

NEW Iran: “Beloved and Popular” Mr Ahmadinejad Wants to See You in New York!
Iran: The Battle over the Judiciary and the Republic’s Future
The Latest from Iran (15 August): Battles Within the Establishment

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2200 GMT: Two late-night breaking stories. The first is the temporary ban on Etemade Melli newspaper after its publication of a letter from Mehdi Karroubi.

The second story is potentially bigger. Press TV's website reports that former President Mohammad Khatami met former members of Parliament and said, "We are the real protectors of the Islamic Republic not those who showed in recent months that they are uprooting the republic and Islamic nature of the establishment." Khatami expressed concern about the "illegal" attitude adopted towards the Iranian nation after the election: "Certain ongoing moves run counter to legal principles."

What Press TV fails to note is that those former members of Parliament issued a statement a few days ago raising the issue of the authority of the Supreme Leader. So this meeting may be part of the move to invoke Law 111 over the prudence and justice of Khamenei.

2005 GMT: Agence France Presse reports, "Iran released 24-year-old French academic Clotilde Reiss on bail Sunday six weeks after she was arrested on suspicion of spying, the French presidency said, adding that she is in good health."

2000 GMT: Revolutionary Road has posted a summary in English, including the names of the defendants, in today's third trial of post-election political detainees.

1905 GMT: And it's not just Press TV that is giving airtime to the opposition and "enemies" of the regime. An EA correspondent reports that Iranian state television, including IRIB Channel 1, is also carrying the denial of charges by an attorney for one of the defendants in today's trial in Tehran (see 1625 GMT).

1855 GMT: Press TV's website is now summarising, in fact almost reprinting in full, the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi: “Our election campaign was conducted under the Constitution and the principles which the Iranian nation holds dear. We still remain committed to the same slogans.”

The article prints, without any critical commentary, Mousavi's memories of Election Night:

[At first] we thought that mismanagement was the cause of chaos. I, myself, made contacts with authorities of the country. On the election day, I called the Judiciary Chief [Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi] twice, the Prosecutor General [Qorban-Ali Dorri-Najafabadi] two times, the Majlis Speaker [Ali Larijani] twice, and the Office of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution [Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei] four times to raise issues about the pre-planned scenarios.

Mousavi, the former prime minister who worked under the founder of the Islamic Revolution, added that he had dispatched a team to see Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli, “but, surprisingly, he refused to meet” with them.

Mousavi's challenge to the regime is also featured: “We are confident that an atmosphere of mistrust would not have been created in the country if a fair attitude had been adopted [after the election], to the demands of the Iranian people, and if the media had been prevented from attributing the nation's will to foreigners and diverting facts.”


1700 GMT: In Case You Missed It. Yesterday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a statement calling on "Iranʼs leadership to quickly resolve all outstanding American citizen cases". These include the detentions of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, whose situation we have profiled on Enduring America, and three American hikers, who were seized when they crossed the Iraq-Iran border.

1640 GMT: Mir Hamid Hassanzadeh, who ran Mir Hossein Mousavi's Ghalam News website during the Presidential campaign, has been released on bail after 11 days in detention. Dr Saeed Shirkavand of the Islamic Iran Participation Front has also been freed on bail.

1625 GMT: Tehran Trial Twist. For the first time, an Iranian state media outlet has carried details of a denial of the charges against post-election political detainees. Press TV's website leads with, "The defense attorney of one of the post-vote detainees has described as 'severe' an indictment that charged his defendant with throwing a hand-made grenade."

The article continues with a specific description of the allegation against Meisam Ghorbani and the attorney's rebuttal rather, than as has been typical of state media reporting, focusing on the prosecution's description of foreign intrigue for a "velvet revolution".

1610 GMT: A Moscow Tilt against Ahmadinejad? The Russian company Megafon now denies that it will start a new mobile phone operation in Iran.

1600 GMT: More Cabinet Rumours. Hossein Sobhaninia, the deputy head of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Affairs Commission, has told Mehr News Agency that Saeed Jalili (currently head of the President's National Security Council) will be next Foreign Minister and that the current Defence and Interior Ministers, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar and Sadeq Mahsouli, will swap positions. He added that he was incensed by Ahmadinejad's failure to consult with the Commission before these cabinet changes.

1150 GMT: Yeah, Yeah, Whatever. Besides announcing some of his Cabinet choices on Iranian television, President Ahmadinejad trotted out the "foreign interference" line, on the same time that 28 more defendants went on trial. Ahmadinejad told the "West", "This time you clearly interfered in Iran's domestic affairs and you thought you would be able to harm the Islamic nation. You should be held accountable for your actions but we know very well the fuss you created in the world is not a sign of your authority but rather it is a sign of your weakness and downfall."

1110 GMT: An EA correspondent writes, "In the end the Intelligence Ministry did not end up in the hands of [Basiji commander] Hossein Taeb, but it appears that the IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] is as present as ever. According to Fars News, [Heydar] Moslehi was Imam Khomeini's representative in the Khatam al-Anbia and Karbala military bases during the Iraq war and, more importantly, the Supreme Leader's "representative with the land forces of the IRGC and deputy of the Islamic Propaganda Organisation". Hence he is a solid Khamenei acolyte with strong ties to the IRGC. He is also currently a deputy to Ahmadinejad for Islamic University Affairs and Khamenei's representative in the lucrative Waqf Foundations Qrganisation.

1100 GMT: Fars News has now published the indictment and photographs from today's Tehran trial.

1050 GMT: The two women announced today by President Ahmadinejad in his Cabinet choice, to lead the Welfare and Health Ministries, are Fatemeh Ajorloo, a conservative MP from Karaj, and Marzieh Dastjerdi, a gynaecologist.

According to Dastjerdi's biography, just published by Mehr News, she is a solid stalwart of Iran's health establishment, having served in the women's section of the Cultural Revolution Council and the top management of the Health Ministry. She is currently on the board of trustees of the Medical Sciences College of Tehran, of which she is also head of international relations.

1030 GMT: An Iranian website is reporting a statement from the "conservative" Society of Teachers and Researchers of Qom, whose members include Mohammad Yazdi and Ahmed Khatami, calling on the Government to ensure detainees' rights and to curb illegal actions committed during arrests and detentions.

1015 GMT: Confusion on the Internet over the demonstration of support for Etemade Melli, originally proposed by Mehdi Karroubi for Monday. As we reported earlier (0720 GMT), Karroubi's office cancelled the demonstration after threatened attacks by Government backers did not materialise on Saturday. A Facebook site run by supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi, however, continues to maintain the call for protest.

Because the newspaper is closely connected with Karroubi's party, also called Etemade Melli, and because the information on the party's website is co-ordinated with Karroubi, we are treating his office's announcement --- still the lead item on the website --- as the latest information.

1000 GMT: Back to our first story of the day. President Ahmadinejad has just spoken live on Iranian TV. He says the full Cabinet will be named on Tuesday, but some names have been confirmed. Two women, for the Welfare and Health Ministries, will be proposed. Hojatoleslam Moslehi will be nominated as Minister of Intelligence. Ahmadinejad promised at least one more female minister in the full Cabinet.

0940 GMT: A New Challenge to Khamenei? On Friday, we reported and analysed the first wave of a constitutional move against the Supreme Leader's authority, with the statement of former MPs and Ayatollah Dastgheib's move for an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts.

This may now be building from "significant" to "important" story with the revelation, in Mowj-e-Sabz, of "a second wave". A number of high-ranking clerics from Qom, Mashad, and Isfahan have sent an open letter to the Assembly of Experts, asking them to re-evaluate the credentials of the Supreme Leader.

Using the words of Law Number 111 of the Constitution, the clerics assert that the necessary conditions of prudence and justice that are essential for any Supreme Leader have not been met. Therefore, according to the principles of Islamic jurisprudence set by Ayatollah Khomeini, Khameini is and must automatically deposed.

Some cautions with the report: Mowj-e-Sabz has a marked political stake in the story, as it is the website of the Green opposition. And the names of the clerics are not known, as they have been withheld out of consideration for their safety. Still, if true, the report indicates the growing pressure against the Supreme Leader.

0755 GMT: Fars News has an initial report on today's trial of 25 detainees for incitement of "velvet revolution". The indictment accuses them generally of "creating chaos and general disarray after the recent elections" and specifically of making bombs and distributing weapons.

0750 GMT: Propaganda of the Day. Keyhan writes, "Girls that have been recently arrested in the latest unrest and their families" want Mehdi Karroubi to be taken to court and be punished. Keyhan claims that these girls and their families believe, "From the time Karroubi published his letter our friends and relatives look down upon us and our reputation has been besmirched....Karroubi is a power-hungry liar and we can only regain our reputation by proving the falsity of his statements in court."

0730 GMT: Further to our first update on 72 hours for the President. Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, Ahmadinejad's press spokesman, says the President will introduce his cabinet to Parliament on Tuesday or Wednesday.

0720 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has responded to the attacks upon him in Friday prayers in Tehran:

Unfortunately a number of Friday Imams have abused the sacred position of Friday prayers and have used the market of false accusations, lies and infamy to sell their religion and have insulted the holy institute of Friday prayers....I had written a letter because I was concerned [about issues] and felt that it was my duty to respond, some individuals welcomed this letter others criticized it; however, this issue should not become a pretext for destruction, false accusations and insults. I welcome both approbation and criticisms; however, I can not remain indifferent to those who insult and those who have sold their religion for filthy lucre and I will most certainly respond to them in the near future.

Meanwhile, Karroubi's office has called off the demonstration of his followers scheduled for Monday: "Because the demonstration of the critics that was scheduled Saturday did not occur and the operation of Etemade Melli (newspaper) is continuing with no impediments, we are requesting that all supporters to demonstrate their good intentions by refraining from gathering arround the office of Etemade Melli. We would like to take this oppurtunity to thank public support that has been shown towards the personnel, editors and reporters of this newspaper....We would also like to thank the security forces that have maintaned calm and order around the office of the newspaper.

0700 GMT: Amidst a relatively quiet morning, we've concentrated on a special analysis on the fight over Iran's judiciary, marked by the appointment of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as its head yesterday, and the wider contest between clerics, politicians, and the Revolutionary Guard.

At the same time, we're now starting to watch the clock on the future of the President. Not sure many have noticed, but Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has 72 hours to get approval from Parliament of his choices for Cabinet ministers. Otherwise, under Iranian law, the way is out for dissolution of the Government and new elections.