The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays

NEW Latest Iran Video: Khamenei Speech to Student Leaders (26 August)
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”

NEW Iran: Welcome to the “Velvet Revolution”

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1745 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Cabinet Woes. Press TV, from Iranian Labor News Agency, reports that the majority "principlist" bloc in Parliament is going to reject the three women among the President's 18 Ministerial nominations (albeit with some pretty weak excuses):

With regards to proposed health minister Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi, [a bloc member] said that "certain reports about her business activities had reached the bloc which altered the opinion of the members about her".

The Principlist Majlis deputy, who sits on another bloc as well, said about Sussan Keshavarz, who has been offered the education portfolio: "We have heard that she was active in the campaign headquarters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi."...

The third candidate, Fatemeh Ajorloo, who was picked for the welfare post, was rejected because she "is too good". "It would be a shame if she becomes welfare minister," said the unnamed source, presumably because the ministry is due to be disbanded in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the reformist bloc of the Majlis has decided to vote in favor of Vahid-Dastjerdi.

1420 GMT: The Day's Big (Unseen) Story? I saw this floating around yesterday --- the storyinitially came out on the technology site of the Islamic Republic News Agency and then circulated on other Iranian websites --- but it is only with the help of EA's readers (see comments below) that I could put this together.

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard), which has become just as renowned in recent years for their role in Iran's economy as for their security function, are set to buy a major stakeholding in the Iranian Telecommunications Agency.

Since 2005, Iran had planned to float the shares of the state company, which is one of three operators in the country. One of the other two is owned by Hashemi Rafsanjani, but its reach is limited to Tehran and some smaller smaller cities. The Revolutionary Guard already have a stake in Iran Cell, so if they were successful in their bid for shares of ITA, they would be in a leading position in Iran's two major cellphone providers.

This is unlikely to be a case of the Guard showing up with chequebook in hand to buy the shares. Instead, as has been the case with other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automobiles, the purchase will be made through a front company.

There is also an interesting international twist in this story. Earlier this summer, a Russian company was to be granted a license as the third national cellphone operator, but the process suddenly stalled last month (companies from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were also trying to get the license). The effective suspension is probably linked to the high process the Iranian Government was demanding, but it leaves the Revolutionary Guard in an even stronger position in the cellphone sector.

1400 GMT: In Case Anyone Really Cares. The actual address at Friday prayers in Tehran, as opposed to President Ahmadinejad's introduction, was delivered by Hojetoleslam Sadighi. His headline declaration was that the "world's exceptional crimes" are the crimes of Israel in Palestine.

1330 GMT: Today is turning into a contest of two statements and, in contrast to recent days, Western media are eagerly on top of the story. Former President Khatami's statement to reformist leaders is being juxtaposed with current President Ahmadinejad's speech at Friday prayers.

While there are a complex range of issues in this battle, from the legal issues of detentions/confessions/trials to the institutional challenges of who controls Iran's bureaucracy and security forces to the political showdown over Ahmadinejad's legitimacy, it is this sentence from Khatami that may represent the moment: "'The sacred Friday prayer podium has been given to those who...call for the punishment of prominent figures...while they are accused in the eyes of the public for committing treason themselves."

Even though Khatami was probably referring to Friday prayers past and addresses delivered by "hard-line" clerics such as Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, that sentence will be set next to Ahmadinejad's none-too-subtle call for the arrests of protest leaders.

To put an immediate question: 48 hours after trying to avert a showdown with his own statement, the Supreme Leader finds the confrontation ratcheted up several notches. What does Khamenei do now?

1200 GMT: More details are emerging of former President Khatami's statement in his meeting with leaders of the Reformist Front, via outlets such as Radio Farda and Parleman News. Khatami said that "the black cloud of worthlessness of people's votes under this regime should be eliminated" and that those who opened fire on the people on the streets should be prosecuted.

1150 GMT: Credit to Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times, who has just nailed the significance of this morning's events in his lead paragraph: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad demanded the prosecution of opposition leaders today, raising the nation's political temperature just a day and a half after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sought to cool tempers in a conciliatory speech."

1130 GMT: Fars News Agency have published a summary of Tehran's Friday prayers address by Hojetoleslam Sadighi.

1030 GMT: Press TV has now posted its English summary of the Ahmadinejad speech, featuring the call for the "severe punishment of the orchestrators of the post-election unrest" and its "painful" events.

The President is not backing away from the "velvet revolution" theme, saying that Iranian opposition leaders were "deceived by the enemy's schemes (and) did their best to undermine the high voter turnout in the election and to shake the foundations of the Islamic establishment".

The president said, "I call upon security and judicial officials to decisively and mercilessly act with those who committed inhumane acts in the guise of the friends [of the establishment] since they inflicted damage on people and tarnished the image of the establishment, security and police forces."

0915 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami, meeting members of the Reform Front, has emphasised the need for a stronger presence of the reformists in Iranian politics with continuation of their efforts for change.

0900 GMT: More on the Ahmadinejad Speech. Fars News Agency has posted its summary. The President followed long-established lines with his references to 85 percent participation in the Presidential election and the 25 million who voted for him. This was testimony to the "revolutionary values" and "originality" of Iran. Enemies were trying to separate the "Islamic" and "Republic" in this Iranian revolution; however, Ahmadinejad proclaimed that, "after more than two months", these enemies were "staggering and had lost their way home", failing in their media plans and political efforts.

There was one nice touch in the rhetoric, especially since the President needs to be careful with his references to a "velvet revolution" that the Supreme Leader has now denied. Apparently the British Foreign Minister [David Miliband] had said, when asked why Britain was involved in Iranian affairs, that otherwise work on the Islamic Republic would soon be completed.

0840 GMT: Oh, yes, Ahmadinejad also asked Parliament to show their trust with votes of confidence in his "strong, coherent, professional, and honest" Ministers.

0830 GMT: Mahmoud Speaks. And wow, what a way to begin the introduction to Friday prayers. The President has claimed that attacks on University dormitories just after the 12 June election were staged by "relatives" of students and protestors, complementing their disturbances on the streets.

These acts tried to discredit the Presidential vote, "a matter of genuine democracy unlike other staged elections in the world, where the outcome is predetermined".

0800 GMT: A stuttering start to the day. We were laid low by a server problem but there is still no breaking news to report. We're waiting for first accounts of President Ahmadinejad's introduction of Friday prayers in Tehran, which should include glowing references for his Cabinet nominees.

We've taken the time, during the server outage, to write up a special analysis on the regime's pretext of "velvet revolution" as the cause of the post-election conflict. This, of course, has been true since June, but it came home to us this week with the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh during the 4th Tehran trial. Apparently some of our colleagues (and at least one EA staffer) are now amongst the velvet revolutionaries.

The "Western" media, from The New York Times to experts like Juan Cole, are now catching up with the last major development, the Supreme Leader's speech from Wednesday. (Unless it's The Washington Post, who apparently no longer care about Iran unless the story is about Tehran's nuclear threat; they are silent on Iran today.)

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NEW Iran Special: Mohammad Sadegh Larijani and a "Militarised" Judiciary
The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?
Two Months On: All Our Videos From Iran’s Post-Election Conflict

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2025 GMT: Green movement youth branch members Saeed Noormohammadi and Zoya Hasani have been released from detention.

2015 GMT: A Nice Message to Close the Day. The commander of the Basiji militia, Hossein Taeb, has declared that if Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of sexual abuse of detainees are proven to be a lie, Karroubi is "debauched" and "sinful" and should receive 80 lashes.

1810 GMT: Maryam, from the excellent blog Keeping the Change notifies us that she has translated into English a graphic, moving account by the Iranian journalist Babak Dad, "The Rapes Inside Iran's Prisons: The Story of One Anonymous Victim and a Call to the People of Iran". She introduces it, "It is, in short, a beautifully written and lyrical piece, providing the personal, yet socially critical, perspective on the rape allegations that we did not know we were missing until Mr. Dad brought it to our attention."

Dad has also been interviewed by the Voice of America about the account.

1720 GMT: In the morning, we're going to offer a detailed analysis --- after today's appointment of Mohammad Sadeq Larijani as the head of Iran's judiciary --- on the battle over the judiciary, and its wider implication for the political manoeuvres between the Supreme Leader, the President, Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Green opposition, and even (perhaps especially) the Revolutionary Guards.

For now, here's a teaser from the announcement on Ayatollah Khamenei's website that points to the tightrope walked by the Supreme Leader:

His Eminence Ayatollah Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, has appointed Ayatollah Agha Hajj Shaykh Sadegh Larijani to the head of the judicial system. The text of the decree of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution follows:

In the name of God,

The Gracious Hojatoleslam Agha Shaykh Sadegh Amoli Larijani, esteemed scholar ... given that the extended period of leadership of Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi within the judiciary has come to an end....

Note the titles we've put in boldface. "Ayatollah" is a higher clerical rank than "Hojatoleslam". Larijani can be referred to as "Ayatollah" initially by the Supreme Leader, not by virtue of his religious standing but because of his membership on the Assembly of Experts and the Guardian Council. After that, Khamenei retreats to the title "Hojatoleslam".

An EA correspondent interprets, "Khamenei was trying to keep the Najaf and Qom seminaries from openly criticising him on the choice with the careful use of the titles. Meanwhile, he has nominated a non-specialist to lead the judiciary and kept other conservatives at bay, such as Ali Larijani and [Mayor of Tehran] Qalibaf by giving them a consolation prize."

More --- much more --- tomorrow morning.

1600 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's website, Ghalam News, is still down. It has been out of service for at least 24 hours.

1500 GMT: Barazou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times reports, from the Iranian Labor News Agency that Mir Hossein Mousavi has announced a "Green Path of Hope" to organise the political movement that arose before and after the Presidential election. Speaking to a group of doctors, Mousavi said, “Numerous volunteer and independent social networks throughout the society form the body of this movement. The Green Path of Hope is in fact aimed at regaining people’s denied rights.”

Building on the theme of recent weeks, Mousavi used the issues of detentions, confessions, and trials as a touchstone for political concerns, “We would not have witnessed so many crises today had [the authorities] adopted fair positions and respected people’s rights, instead of humiliating people on state television. Instead of accusing million-strong demonstrators of connection to foreigners, you have to find those who are waging a poisonous propaganda war on our people."

What is uncertain is how much Mousavi's announcement amounts to a "political front", even though that is label used by Daragahi, with no indication yet by other opposition leaders of their approach to the Green Path of Hope.

1425 GMT: Report from Etemade Melli (political party) website that security forces around Etemade Melli (newspaper) are increasing but situation under control.

1340 GMT: Reuters is reporting, from the Supreme Leader's official site, that Ayatollah Khamenei has appointed Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary, saying "in a letter to Larijani that he hoped the judiciary would flourish under him".

What Reuters does not ask is why the appointment was made today in a letter rather than in the ceremony scheduled for today. Indeed, the news agency garbles the story, "Some reformist websites had recently reported that Larijani was hesitant to accept the position because of the mass arrests of moderate detainees."

In fact, and in line with the analysis we posted in a separate entry today, Khamenei is pushing through the appointment --- albeit with little fanfare --- against the opposition of supporters of President Ahmadinejad. What is unclear is whether Larijani's reported demand, the cessation of cases against political detainees, will be met.

Instead, as the Iranian Students News Agency reports, trials for another 25 detainees will begin on Sunday. They will join the more than 100 prisoners who have already been in the dock.

1325 GMT: Safety Valve. The Iranian regime, according to Mehr TV, is trying to ease pressure by firing and pressing criminal charges against 12 police officers and a judge associated with the Kahrizak detention facility.

1145 GMT: The Conclusion of a Pre-Election Story. Rather quietly, Iranian-American graduate student Esha Momeni returned to the United States on Tuesday after detention and then a ban on leaving Iran. In April, we profiled the arrest of Momeni, who was working on a thesis on the women's right movement in Iran. She was detained in October 2008 when her research included the filming of a documentary on the activists and charged with “endangering national security” as an “agent of Western powers”.

Momeni has given an extended interview to journalists at her university, California State, Northridge. We've posted the video as a separate entry.

0930 GMT: When the Threat to a Supreme Leader Becomes "Real". This morning's interview with Al Jazeera English went well. AJE is an excellent operation, so we were able to set out the challenge to Ayatollah Khamenei both from former MPs, who are no doubt acting as a vanguard for other groups within the secular establishment, and from some senior clerics.

What struck me after the discussion was how a story becomes "mainstream". Enduring America had this information Thursday night and ran an extended analysis yesterday morning. However, the "threat" only becomes real when the big boys of the media decide to give it that label. So this morning, Al Jazeera English decided to feature the story when the Associated Press put it on their newswires. The Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times also have detailed articles.

So I guess it's time to take the analysis to the next level. In the interview with Al Jazeera English, I suggested that the move against Khamenei should be seen in the context of a rebuttal to the campaign that has been waged against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. That is especially true in the Assembly of Experts, where some pro-Ahmadinejad members had tried to limit Rafsanjani's influence. So one logical way "forward" is a settlement between Khamenei and Rafsanjani. But, in that case (and remembering the complexity of such a settlement, which would have to consider the Supreme Leader's power and authority), who would be the big loser?

Step up, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

0920 GMT: We have now posted Mehdi Khalaji's provocative analysis of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani and Iran's judiciary, adding our own interpretation.

0755 GMT: More on one of our last stories from yesterday. In response to the leaflets, spread by the Ansar-e Hezbollah groups at Friday prayers, calling for a "gathering" in front of the Etemade Melli newspaper, Karroubi has stated, "We always welcome the opinions and presence of critics and we will hear all of their suggestions and criticisms and we shall reflect these opinions in Etemade Melli." Karroubi also requested that the friends and supporters of Etemade Melli "refrain from gathering in front of the newspaper on Saturday so that our rerporters can interview these critics under calm conditions". Karroubi concluded with a message to his supporters " I will join you in the gathering taking place in front of the offices of Etemade Melli on Monday at 16:00 local time to thank those in charge of the newspaper and to get feedback from you".

The editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli has asked Tehran's prosecutor and head of police to provide security for the newspaper.

0745 GMT: Another Stick for "Conservatives" to Beat Themselves. The proclamation of Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, a staunch supporter of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that "obedience to the President is like obedience to God" has angered many "conservatives". The newspaper Jomhoori Eslami has pointed out the inherent hypocrisy in Mesbah's proclamation: "If Mr. Mesbah-Yazdi's statement is accepted, he must confess that he himself is a great sinner because, during the eight years that Mr Khatami was President, he encouraged everyone to disobey and confront the President....Even during the last four years, Mr Mesbah has also occasionally sinned against God by expressing his disagreements with Ahmadinejad."

0727 GMT: A slow-ish start to the day, but an unexpectedly busy Friday which exposed the challenges that persist for the regime. The Friday prayer address of Ahmed Khatami, despite his hard-line rhetoric against the "devil's tools and facilities" of the opposition and its leaders, was overshadowed by both secular and clerical challenges to the Government.

Three stories, all of which we noted yesterday and feature today, continue to lead that challenge. The first is the "Karroubi letter" on abuse of detainees, now taken up by Hashemi Rafsanjani in a demand for action. In a separate entry, we highlight an interview with Rafsanjani's brother, Mohammmad Hashemi, which sheds some light on the former President's concerns and motives.

The second story is the unexpected delay in the confirmation of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary, which points to fighting between President Ahmadinejad and "conservative" and "principlist" critics of his politics and actions. Although Fars News says that Larijani's ceremony will take place on Monday, the tension is still present. We have a profile of Larijani and an analysis of Iran's judiciary in a separate entry.

The third story is the emerging challenge to the Supreme Leader's position, with both individual Ayatollahs and former MPs calling for a review of his authority. I am interviewing live with Al Jazeera English in 60 seconds on this, so will be back later with details.

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2025 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, which has been very active today in portraying division within the Government, leaves another explosive story tonight. It claims that a member of Parliament from the "majority (conservative) faction" has "revealed that Hossein Fadaii, Tehran’s pro-Ahmadinejad MP and chairman of [the hardline pro-Ahmadinejad organisation] Isargaran was responsible for the crimes committed in Kahrizak prison [where some detainees were killed] and this has been proven for the Parliament".

2005 GMT: Another ominous (and official) signal. The political director of the Revolutionary Guard, General Yudollah Javani, has reissued the threat to arrest opposition leaders. Having sent out the message in the Guard's journal last week, Javani said yesterday that prosecution of Mir Hossein Mousavi would end opposition and the “blow that has been dealt to the prestige of the establishment.”

After criticising Mohammad Khatami, Javani identified his main target: "This flame of sedition cannot be put out unless through clarifying and trying the real elements [of the movement]. Mousavi should stand before the court to be enlightened.”

2000 GMT: All day there has been Twitter chatter about leaflets, circulated at Friday prayers in Tehran, calling for an attack on the main office of Etemade Melli, the party of Mehdi Karroubi, tomorrow at 4 p.m. local time.

Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has picked up the story, saying that the leaflets were circulated by Ansar-e Hezbollah on the fringes of the prayer meeting. It notes websites and Facebook pages calling for Green activists to show up at the office.

1700 GMT: Another Rift in Parliament. This time it's over the post-election death toll. Press TV is reporting:

A senior lawmaker says he will put forth a detailed list of those who were killed in the street violence. Morteza Alviri, a...member of the special committee investigating the death and detention of election protestors, said he would list all individuals killed in the demonstrations that spiraled out of control....

His remarks come only days after Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Head of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said the committee's list of the death toll had been proven “inconclusive”.

1440 GMT: An Important Friday Prayer Correction. Ahmed Khatami did name one of the "enemies" doing the Devil's work in his address. He referred to the now-famous and very significant letter from Mehdi Karroubi, which has alleged abuse of detainees, claiming that it was a "letter of diversion" doing "the work of the USA and Israel". Khatami said Iran's judiciary explicitly ruled that the claims were a lie, a Parliamentar special committee said that the claims were a lie, "so all this article said is a lie".

1355 GMT: An EA correspondent offers the following, based on Mowj-e-Sabz, on the delay of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani's appointment as head of Iran's judiciary (1220 GMT):

Larijani's inauguration has been delayed because he has requested the complete termination of judicial inquiries and investigations of political prisoners arrested after June 12 before he assumes office. According to the prosecutor general, Ayatollah Dorri-Najafabadi, Larijani wants to start with a clean slate, and this request was taken to the Supreme leader.

To an extent, this can be seen as a joint effort by the Larijanis, Ali and Mohammad Sadegh, to distance themselves from Ahmadinejad and avoid being lumped together with him. Given the ostensible closeness between Ali and Sadegh, I expect Ahmadinejad to be in for a bumpy ride in Parliament should he bethe reason for Sadegh's delayed start as head of judiciary.

The article adds, however, that Mohammad Sadegh has a lot of opponents within the Qom seminary system, who have raised doubts on his theological prowess and on whether he can actually run the judiciary in an impartial way given his young age and thin academic profile.

1350 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi reports that "several Majlis lawmakers confirmed...reports", raised in Mehdi Karroubi's letter, of sexual abuse of detainees; "they added, however, that they had been banned from discussing the matter".

1320 GMT: The "reformist" site Norooz News is reporting that President Ahmadinejad and his supporters tabled a proposal for the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi and "10 other leaders of the reform movement", including some unspecified members of the reformist association Rowhaniooon Mobarez, at the National Security Council. The plan was pushed through, despite opposition within the Council, but then shelved by the "highest authorities of state" (a likely reference to the Supreme Leader) as this could lead to the "collapse of the political system".

1255 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, claims, from "an informed source in the Ministry of Science", that Tehran University and other universities will be closed this semester to prevent student protests.

1220 GMT: Iranian Labor News Agency reports that the installation of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary (see separate entry), scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed. No rescheduled time has been announced.

1105 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Ghalam News is down. There is concern that this may be that may be in the aftermath of an attack by hackers.

1045 GMT: It appears that the Fars report (1030 GMT) downplayed the references to the opposition in Ahmed Khatami's Friday prayer address. Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting summarises the speech as a call to Iranians to maintain their "consciousness of conspiracy". Khatami said that people "now know the enemy of the Islamic system" with its "tales of war and the arrogance of the government".

1040 GMT: Reuters, however, does give an indication of Khatami's specific attention to the post-election crisis and, significantly, the issues of detainees and trials: "Iranians expect the judiciary to act strongly and firmly and not to yield to Western pressure [to release detainees]."

As we predicted in our first update this morning (0630 GMT), "[Khatami's address will be] an important clue that the regime may refuse to give any ground. If so, that could be a significant blunder.....It won’t be a question of how many protestors come out on the streets today. It will be a question of how many are brought out on future days by the regime’s continued intransigence."

1030 GMT: Fars News has posted its summary of Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami's Friday prayer address. Khatami spoke of "the devil's methods" of creating differences between people. Khatami referred to Satan's "working tools and facilities" to justify sin, guilt, and humiliation and to make the devout forget God.

Khatami, at least in Fars' summary, did not specify who exactly were the "working tools and facilities" of the devil, leaving it to listeners to draw their own conclusions.

0845 GMT: The Iraq Dimension? Tabnak reports, from "an informed source close to Hashemi Rafsanjani", that Rafsanjani recently met Seyed Abdolaziz Hakim, the head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, in Hakim's house in north Tehran.

Ostensibly, Rafsanjani visited to enquire about the health of Hakim, who has been in Iran for a year for treatment of cancer. However, Tabnak's source said that Rafsanjani also stressed that it was essential that, at this time, the Iraqis should maintain their unity in forming a new Shia coalition.

The big question, however, is not what was discussed about Iraq's politics but about Iran's in the meeting, which also included Hakim's son, Seyed Mohsen Hakim. The encounter follows the intervention of Iraq-based Ayatollah Ali Sistani, with its oblique criticism of Iran's Supreme Leader, and reported meetings between Rafsanjani and Sistani earlier in the post-election crisis.

0630 GMT: This Friday opens with a strange sense of uncertainty. Thursday may have been a relatively quiet one in this crisis, but it still introduced three issues that may or may not mark a new phase in the challenge to the Iranian regime. Two of these, each of which could be turn into high political drama, are being considered in separate analyses: 1) "Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees" and 2) "New Move Against the Supreme Leader?"

The third issue, the developments in and around Friday prayers in Tehran, will be tracked in our updates. Hashemi Rafsanjani may no longer be leading the prayers, but the withdrawal does not reduce today to a non-event. To the contrary, Green movement activists are calling for a show of protest. And then there is the presence of the "replacement" leader of prayers, Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami.

Khatami has already make his mark in this post-election crisis when he called from the prayer platform for harsh treatment, including the death penalty, for demonstrators. And yesterday, speaking to the clerics of the Political-Ideological Organization of the Ministry of Defense, he turned his attention to one of the "ringleaders", Mehdi Karroubi, and his letter alleging mistreatment of detainees:

If a person libels someone with allegations of sexual abuse, then he deserves to be punished for libel. If someone libels the system by saying that rape takes place in prisons, then he must either prove it or, if he cannot, then the system must press charges and the public prosecutor must act.

If allegations are proven with witnesses, then, without any considerations, the perpetrators must be severely punished. But, what if they are not proven? How long should the system remain silent, in the face of such attacks?

Interpretation? First, Khatami's statement is a tip-off that, as we noted in our separate analysis this morning, the regime is feeling the pressure from Karroubi's letter, especially now that Hashemi Rafsanjani has used it to get a response from the judiciary.

But second, and more important, this is an important clue that the regime may refuse to give any ground. If so, that could be a significant blunder. At several points in this crisis, Iranian leaders could have eased the situation by offering some concession to the demands of protestors. And on each occasion --- the Supreme Leader's prayer address on 19 June; the refusal to sanction any demonstration as legal; the mis-handling of the Guardian Council's "recount" of the vote; the uncertain response to the "40th Day" memorial on 30 July; the insistence on holding the Tehran trails--- those leaders have not only refused to take even a minor step towards compromise, they have shaken a fist at the opposition.

Now, as the regime is faced once more with a possibile avenue to a settlement --- this time over the treatment of detainees --- Ahmed Khatami is indicating that the reply of "No" will be shouted out. If he does so from his Friday prayer platform today, it won't be a question of how many protestors come out on the streets today. It will be a question of how many are brought out on future days by the regime's continued intransigence.

Iran: Sifting Through Rafsanjani's Decision

The Latest from Iran (11 August): Rafsanjani’s Decision

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UPDATE 1800 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency reports that Hashemi Rafsanjani, meeting with an attorneys' organisation today, emphasised the protection of the rights of defendants. Press TV is playing up the story, "Rafsanjani Demands Prisoner Rights amid Accusations [of Mistreatment", with the extract from his statement, “Judgment...as well as the rights of the accused can provide guarantees for the presence of justice in the final verdict.”

After a day of confusion and speculation, former Hashemi Rafsanjani confirmed publicly this morning, in a brief statement on his website, that he will not lead Friday prayers in Tehran “to avoid possible conflict”.

The immediate reading of the decision, as well as the politics around it, is that my Enduring America colleagues got it right in our last update yesterday. Rafsanjani had made his decision 24 hours ago but held back from confirmation while there was a battle over how it would be presented. Those behind the regime, both within the system (the head of the Friday Prayers Committee) and in the media, quickly put out the line that Rafsanjani had stepped down because of the threat of opposition manipulation of the event. The former President’s advisors countered by implying that he withdrew because of the threat of violence, as security forces tried to prevent a mass gathering around the prayer site.

That publicity contest will play out today, but I think it is already surpassed by the fallout from this decision. This is a blow for the opposition movement, even as President Ahmadinejad struggles and possibly sinks, and it may mark a re-arrangement of the forces in the post-election conflict.

First, the immediate winner. Step up, Supreme Leader.

The fear of Khamenei has always been that Rafsanjani would work closely with the leaders and protestors of the Green movement. That is why he paid special attention to the former President in his Friday Prayers address of 19 June, trying to split off Rafsanjani from those irresponsibility challenging the election result. Initially, Rafsanjani did remain quiet, waiting more than two weeks before making a guarded statement, as the conflict was defined between the Green Wave and the regime.

Then two events occurred. In mid-July, a group of “hard-line” clerics tried to take Rafsanjani out of the picture, attempting to remove him from leadership of the Assembly of Experts. That effort backfired badly, with other clerics rallying around Rafsanjani. The former President did lead Friday prayers on 17 July, bringing a massive opposition rally to the site and on the streets. And his address was no longer so guarded — this was a challenge to the position of President Ahmadinejad and a criticism of the system that Ayatollah Khamenei was leading.

The 17 July address boosted the Green movement, as it found the energy for new demonstrations, and it gave support to a growing number of secular and religious figures — not just from the movement but from “principlist” and “conservative” factions — focusing on the Government’s use of violence and detentions. The inauguration of Ahmadinejad became a peripheral event. More importantly, there was talk that the Supreme Leader’s ultimate authority might be challenged.

The fear for the regime must have been that Rafsanjani’s appearance this Friday, even if his words were again guarded, would give the platform for a confrontation which is no longer about the 12 June result but about the legitimacy of the current system. That has now been removed. The Supreme Leader again has a “breathing space” amidst the ongoing political manoeuvres.

Second, the opposition. The post-election challenge has always been two halves of a walnut. One half has been the public show of anger over the current situation and of hope that changes could be made. The other half has been the less dramatic, often behind-the-scenes political manoeuvres.

Rafsanjani’s importance has been not so much that he is part of that public movement but that, as a former President and current head of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Council, he is a key member of the Establishment. He had a political base not available to Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, or even former President Mohammad Khatami. And his own resumé, as an Ayatollah and a long-time political leader, brings together the clerical and secular dimensions within the Islamic Republic.

So before 17 July, the former President was a potential symbol bringing together the two halves of the challenge and, after 17 July, he was a very real force galvanising resistance. Opposition leaders and protestors have to confront the cold fact this morning that this may no longer be the case.

There was an incident this week which pointed to this difficulty. Two days ago, Mehdi Karroubi’s advisors published a letter from the Presidential candidate to Rafsanjani that had been written at the end of July. Karroubi had asked Rafsanjani to pursue an enquiry into the abuses of detainees, giving graphic examples. Apparently the former President never replied, so on Monday the letter was posted in the newspaper of Karroubi’s party. The underlying question to Rafsanjani was now on the surface: are you really with us?

In the short term, the reactions of Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, and other leading politicians and clerics will be worth watching. In the longer term, however, the response will have to go beyond these leaders, just as it has to move beyond Rafsanjani: can the movement find the strength and the occasion for another public display of opposition?

And finally (for now), Rafsanjani. Had this been any other politician stepping down, the headline would be “Defeat”. When Rafsanjani skipped his turn in the rota for Friday prayers on two occasions in June/July, he did so from a position of control, considering his next moves. This time, the withdrawal looks like it was forced upon him by the regime.

This, however, is not any other politician. This is Rafsanjani, one of the prominent figures in (and for almost all of) post-1979 Iranian politics. This is a man who, even after his defeat by Ahmadinejad in the 2005 election, has continued to inspire admiration from his supporters and fear from his opponents. This is “The Shark”.

So what is his move? Personally, I’m not sure that he can mend relations with the leaders of the Green movement. So is his manoeuvre, including this withdrawal, an indication that he is positioning for compromise with leaders within the system, including the Supreme Leader? Is there an expectation that, with a possibly terminally wounded President, there may be a space for Rafsanjani to move again for even higher offices than the ones he now occupies? Or, for once, did he simply get wrong-footed and pushed into a defensive reaction, one where he will have to reconsider his position?

The Latest from Iran (3 August): Trials and Inaugurations

Iran Video: The Khamenei-Ahmadinejad “Non-Kiss” (3 August)
NEW Iran Analysis: Naming a President
Trials in Iran: The Latest from Mousavi
NEW Iran Video: The Abtahi “Confession”, Roohul Amini, and Tehran Trial (2 August)
The Latest from Iran (2 August): Raising the Stakes

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2115 GMT: A Personal Note "#CNNFail". I am watching, open-mouthed, as CNN milks the Khomeini-Ahmadinejad "non-kiss" for 10 minutes of blather, with Reza Sayah, his producer,and the happy, chatty, vacuous Michael Holmes chuntering on about how they disagreed about the meaning of the physical interaction: Did Khameini block Mahmoud's embrace? Did Mahmoud check the Supreme Loyalty because he wanted to show sufficient loyalty? It's all ho-ho, ha-ha at the end of their proclaimed 15-hour day.

Here's a friendly suggestion to all the CNN folks. If you spent as much time carefully evaluating political sources over the last two weeks, including the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad tensions, or if you gave a little thought to the politics beyond the single image of the Supreme Leader and the President, including today's demonstrations and the reactions to Saturday's trial, you wouldn't have to spend 600 seconds saying nothing of consequence beyond flagrant self-promotion.

2040 GMT: Another Effort for Conciliation. According to the Iranian Labor News Agency, Maryam Behrouzi, the head of the society of Zeynab, a conservative women's group has stated, "Both principalist and reformist factions have had faults and irregularities and must attempt to cleanse themselves so that the establishment regains its reputation and regains the trust of the people." At the same time, Behrouzi said, "In these [televised] confessions [of reformists] wno mention has been made of  'velvet revolution'....The Supreme Leader has called the two factions of principalist and reformist to be to wings of the same system and accusing one fraction of 'soft deposition' will cause a huge damage to the establishment....If some individuals of a fraction make a mistake that mistake should not be used to indict a whole faction."

2030 GMT: A Very Important Correction. Mehdi Karroubi has denied the report of Fars News alleging that he participated in a demonstration between Vali-e Asr Square and Vanak Square as "an absolute falsehood". Karroubi says, "At the alleged time [I] was participating in the memorial service of the filmmaker Seifollah Daad at the Nour Mosque. This mosque is located between Vali-e Asr and Vanak; however, [I] did not get out of [my] car and did not address the people."

Our correspondent Mani analyses:

Karroubi is not back tracking. The account is from Etemade Melli, Karroubi's official site, and therefore should be considered true. I think that the reason why Karroubi is making this statement is because Fars News had a mendacious reason for reporting Karroubi's presence. The number of demonstrators today was relatively small so  Fars News is implying that Karroubi has participated in a demonstration in which support for him and the reform movement is waning.

Karroubi's statement is reinforcing the fact that he did not call for this demonstration, as opposed to last Thursday in which he had effectively called for protest and got sizable popular participation in one of the least accessible locations in Tehran.

1710 GMT: Confusion of reports over how big protests are and the extent of clashes with security forces. We will be back later with a late-night update to try to set out definitive information.

1610 GMT: Non-Non-Non-Story of the Day. The New York Times wastes a lot of newsprint on "U.S. Weighs Iran Sanctions if Talks Are Rejected". The story claims that National Security Advisor James Jones floated the idea, while in Israel, of "cutting off [Iran's] imports of gasoline and other refined oil products...if it fails to respond to President Obama’s offer to negotiate on its nuclear program".

This is the equivalent of fantasy politics, since the prospect of any US-Iran talks on any issue of substance is suspended. In case The New York Times hasn't paid attention, the Government in Tehran lacks legitimacy, amongst many of its own people and many in the international community. So until Mahmoud Ahmadinejad becomes more than a President in name, there can be no discussions of significance.

The real story, if reporter David Sanger had cared to notice, is that the Obama Administration has used this suspension to get Free Credit, posing as tough guy before both Israel and the US Congress. That is an approach without cost until someone actually suggests, with the passage of time and the (probable) continuing internal tension in Iran, that talk of sanctions be replaced by action.

1600 GMT: Steady stream of reports of protests across Tehran, including Vanak Square and Fatemeh Square as well as Vali-e Asr Square.

CNN now reporting "thousands" in Vali-e Asr and numbers growing. (CNN has also just reported as "Just In" that Mehdi Karroubi was amongst protestors, 35 minutes after we posted the information.)

1535 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, interpreting a report from the Islamic Republic News Agency, says Tehran is under "quasi-military government" in with police based on all major city streets and in squares.

1525 GMT: Fars News that opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi (see 0700 GMT) was among demonstrators in Vali-e Asr Square this afternoon. reports

1500 GMT: More Mr President. Earlier we reported Ahmadinejad's threat to "hang [protesters] from the roof]". Another translation of the speech in Mashaad has the President saying, "[I will] stick their heads to the ceiling."

Mahmoud may want to be a bit careful, however, as his supporters are denying any such sticking or banging of heads is going on. From an interview with pro-Ahmadinejad member of Parliament Bizhan Novabeh:

Reporter: Mr. Nobaveh, what are you doing for the detained? Did you know the son of Ruholamini? Are you looking into why he was killed during his detention?

Nobaveh: Who is saying this? Now it’s possible he hit his head against the floor.

Reporter: His corpse says something different.

Nobaveh: Why are you speaking nonsense? We have to ask the government to look into this.

Reporter: It’s possible that your investigations will take time and every moment that passes lowers [the importance of] this incident.

Nobaveh: This talk is a crime. This talk, in any case, is subject to investigation.

Reporter: I asked one simple question. Regarding the son of Ruholamini, are you of the belief that there should be an investigation?

Nobaveh: Don’t 27 people a day die in road accidents?

Reporter: Road deaths are different than … deaths … .

Nobaveh: What’s the difference? In any case we haven’t heard of any deaths.

1430 GMT: CNN reports, from sources, an estimated 1000 protesters marching on Val-e Asr. Horns are honking, "V for Victory" signs are being flashed, and there are chants of "God is Great".

1100 GMT: Some reports suggest that during the inauguration ceremony, Ahmadinejad tried to kiss the Supreme Leader's hand but was rebuffed. Another break in protocol:  for the first time the decree was read by the head of the leadership office (traditionally this was done by the son of Ayatollah Khomeini, or later former presidents).

1050 GMT: Facinating photo comparison between the 2005 and 2009 inauguration.



0735 GMT: The Supreme Leader has now endorsed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President. There is no indication of any statement beyond the formal announcement.

0715 GMT: You Have to Hand It to Mahmoud. Ahmadinejad may be in trouble (in our opinion, emasculated as a leader), but he's as brazen as ever. In his recent trip to Mashaad, avoiding the "4oth Day" ceremonies in Tehran,  he told "professors who are members of the basij": "Let the inauguration ceremonies end; afterward we will grab [our opponents] over the collar and hang them from the roof."

0700 GMT: Saham News, the official website of Mehdi Karroubi, has published his response to the Tehran trials. Karroubi concludes that the "weak and ridiculous indictment [was] prepared with such alacrity and haste against respected political figures...partly due to the time crunch of the presidential inauguration and partly because [the Government] feels that it must respond to to the events that accompanied the recent memorial ceremonies."

Karroubi is proposing a political response, with representatives from the Karroubi, Mousavi, Rezaei and Ahmadinejad stating their positions regarding the existence or non-existence of election fraud in front of the cameras of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

Karroubi, while reassuring, "I have always been loyal to Imam [Khomeini] and the establishment", asks, "How credibile are these elections, especially under the current conditions in which the country is in an abnormal condition and mass arrests and killings have taken place?" He adds:

When people witness those being treated extremely roughly [by the Revolutionary Guard and Basij] and are being told that the Revolutionary Guard and Basij are innocent and the [demonstrators] are riff-raff; in a society in which student dormitories are attacked and people have witnessed the attack and an official statement says we are not sure who ordered the suppression; in a society that the body of a beloved family member is returned to their family and the family is told that we have no idea who killed your child ---- how can you assume that the people will place any stock in a process that trots out individuals in prison clothes in order that these prisoners assert that the presidential election was free of fraud?....

These actions not only have no positice effect [on society] but in fact cause the establishment to lose its reputation and is a blot on the fame of the Islamic Republic.

0655 GMT: Disrupting the Disruption? Mowj-e-Sabz reports Irancell Company last night sent a text message to its subscribers that the network will experience problems in the next 72 hours, the first time that it has put out advance notification. Coincidentally, Ahmadinejad's inauguration occurs 48 hours from now.