Afghanistan: Beyond the Politics and Propaganda, The War of Logistics

Less than two weeks after the Presidential election, the political narrative is unravelling in Afghanistan. The New York Times offers a black-comedy "Really? You Don't Say" moment with its headline, "Increasing Accounts of Fraud Cloud Afghan Vote", while Dexter Filkins, the highly-praised Times reporter, turns from recent rah-rah cheerleading of the US military to pronounce, "Seven Days That Shook Afghanistan: a string of disturbing military and political events revealed not just the extraordinary burdens that lie ahead for the Americans and Afghans toiling to create a stable nation, but the fragility of the very enterprise itself".

Still, the US military will press on. The US commander, General Stanley McChrystal, will confirm today in his report to the President that he wants 20,000 more troops. The "private" publicity machine is already in motion, with top analyst/promoter Anthony Cordesman (who happened to advise McChrystal during the report's development) given space in The Washington Post to declare that the General should get Everything He Wants: "We have a reasonable chance of victory if we properly outfit and empower our new team in Afghanistan; we face certain defeat if we do not."

Amidst these predictable political developments and military escalations, Juan Cole offers a valuable reminder of the complexities of the battle:

Are the Taliban Surrounding NATO Armies and Cutting them Off?

There is an old saying in military affairs, that everyone wants to do strategy and tactics, but real men do logistics. That is, moving persons and materiel around and managing supplies seems tedious, but they are crucial to success. The Obama administration has substituted the Logistics of War for the War on Terror. It is moving troops and equipment and assets around in the millions, on a vast scale, and therefore its enemies--whether the Sunni radicals in Iraq or the neo-Taliban, are also concentrating on logistics. The staccato, desultory news items of bombings here and air strikes there, make sense if the individual incidents are viewed as struggles over supply lines-- whether supply lines for military purposes, or supplies of intangibles such as international legitimacy. And in this context, the gingerness with which Washington is now approaching Russia and Iran makes perfect sense.

The logistics war in AfPak were on full view Sunday, with the long fingers of blazing conflagrations jabbing the sky amidst billowing waves of jet black smoke both in Chaman in Pakistan near the Afghan border, and in Kunar Province. The bombing of supply trucks is to this war what u-boat attacks on supply ships were to the two world wars.

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UPDATED Iran: How the Regime Constructed the "Velvet Revolution"

The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”

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UPDATE 29 August: Ayande News has posted a lengthy audio interview with Hamid Reza Moghadam-Far, the Managing Director of Fars News Agency, and a Mr. Gharebaghi, whom Ayande claim are two of the authors of the Tehran trial indictments. (Ayande also says Reza Seraj, the Head of Student Basij Organization, is a third author of the indictment.)

The interviewee try to distinguish between "velvet" and "colored" revolutions. A "colored" revolution, such as the movements in Ukraine and Georgia in 2004, only intend to change behaviour, whereas a "velvet" revolution intends to overthrow the regime, as in Czechoslovakia. (Significantly, the Tehran trial indictments repeatedly refer to US-sponsored operatives planning their Iranian regime change from a Czech academic institution.) Both men express their unhappiness that Iran's judicial and security systems do not have sufficient powers to deal with the "velvet" revolution.

And the source of the trouble? Samuel Huntington and his 1991 book, The Third Wave of Democratization, which was translated into Persian and apparently became a "manifesto" for reformers.

UPDATE: By coincidence, just after writing this, I discovered that Robert Mackey wrote yesterday of "Iran’s Fear of a ‘Velvet Revolution’" in The Lede blog of The New York Times, referring to Tajbakhsh's testimony briefly. The piece, unfortunately, is not in the print edition of the newspaper.

One of the surprises of this week's 4th Tehran trial was how little attention was paid outside Iran to the testimony of the Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, who was among the latest set of defendants. The foreign media had featured the situation of French national Clotilde Reiss, a graduate student spending time at Isfahan University, when she “confessed” in an earlier trial, and earlier this year the detention of Iranian-American Roxana Saberi had been headline news. Tajbakhsh, however, was almost invisible, apart from passing references to his status and a couple of paragraphs in the Wall Street Journal.

The episode is far more than a question of the media noting a “foreigner” in jail. Tajbakhsh's testimony illustrated the fundamental pretext of these trials and, indeed, the regime's crackdown on political opposition; paradoxically, it also undermined the pretext.

Because --- Mr Prosecutor, Mr Ahmadinejad, Generals of the Revolutionary Guard --- are academics really at the forefront the “velvet revolution” to overthrow your Islamic Republic?

The claim has been at the heart of the prosecution's case since the indictment at the first trial three weeks ago. We noted then that the efforts for regime change not only involved but were supposedly inspired and led by academics and writers such as Gene Sharp, Abbas Milani, and Mark Palmer, adding a large dose of scepticism to our analysis. It is Tajbakhsh's testimony that illustrates, however, just how far the regime will go and, how with each step, its legal and political case is shakier and shakier.

The opening gambit in Tajbakhsh's “confession” is that “information services” of the US Government and the CIA develop and carry out their schemes with “semi-hidden” activities of academic institutions “such as the [Woodrow] Wilson Center in Washington”, behind the front of their “scientific research, academic seminars, and meetings”, and funders such as the Soros Foundation, for whom Tajbakhsh worked in Iran, and the Carnegie Foundation. The real goal of supposedly neutral study and research is “disturbing public order and creating chaos and fear in society” in the seven-step pursuit of “soft overthrow” of the enemy system.

Beyond the general allegation of the scheme “promoting Western democracy, secularism, and liberalism”, there were few details of Tajbakhsh's activities inside Iran. The headline charge was his meetings with Mohammad Khatami, Iranian President from 1997 to 2005, including an introduction of the leader to George Soros. The contacts had started in 1997, which implied that Khatami was seeking the overthrow of the Government that he was leading, and continued after he left the Presidency. Others named in the “confession” were Mostafa Tajzadeh, a Vice Minister at the Ministry of Interior under Khatami, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, a key Khatami advisor  supporting Mehdi Karroubi during the 2009 Presidential campaign, and journalist Mohammad Atrianfar. There were also meetings with Saeed Hajjarian, the reformist leader whose own “confession” was the headline moment of the 4th trial about developing and using “social capital” for velvet revolution.

As sketchy as these claims are, however, it is Tajbakhsh's “confession” of the foreigners directing his efforts to the level of the fantastic. The relatively little-known Dutch foundation Hivos makes another appearance, after its citation in the indictment of the first trial, to set up subversive media activities. Unsurprisingly, given the regime's denunciation of Britain throughout the crisis, BBC Persian gets a mention.

Then this revelation: one of the networks for this velvet revolution is a discussion list, with “more than a thousand members”, called “Gulf 2000”, led by a former National Security Council staff member in the Carter and Reagan Administrations, now Professor at Columbia University, named Gary Sick. While Tajbakhsh noted that Sick and the list members are not CIA agents, he said,"If I had known about it [G2K's misconduct "proven" in Iranian documents], I would have cut my contacts with it."

“Fantastic” claims, indeed, for the Tajbakhsh's testimony and the claims of velvet revolution now reached all the way to Enduring America. Here I should declare a personal interest. In the last years of the Khatami Presidency, a close colleague unwittingly came close --- if Tajbakhsh's “confession” were true --- to becoming part of the conspiracy. Working with an Iranian university, he drafted a grant request to the Soros Foundation in Tehran to fund the purchase of books and the movement of students and scholars between Iranian and Western institutions. Before the proposal could be submitted, the word came down from higher levels of the Iranian university: Soros, with its promotion of “democracy” and “open society”, was off-limits.

And I am a member of Gulf 2000's misbehaving network. Apparently, amidst discussion of topics from Saudi Prince Turki al-Feisal's recent writings on energy to the political situation in Iraq to Iran's dispute with the United Arab Emirates over islands in the Persian Gulf, I take my place as a velvet revolutionary.

None of this is to belittle the seriousness of events in Iran, both the general political conflict and the specific situation of Kian Tajbakhsh. It does, however, point to the absurdity when politics and academia collide. Far from being the hyper-clever agents of revolution, professors and social scientists find themselves as mute actors in the play of a regime which sees a dispute over a Presidential election as a threat to its survival.

The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays

NEW Latest Iran Video: Khamenei Speech to Student Leaders (26 August)
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”

NEW Iran: Welcome to the “Velvet Revolution”

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1745 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Cabinet Woes. Press TV, from Iranian Labor News Agency, reports that the majority "principlist" bloc in Parliament is going to reject the three women among the President's 18 Ministerial nominations (albeit with some pretty weak excuses):

With regards to proposed health minister Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi, [a bloc member] said that "certain reports about her business activities had reached the bloc which altered the opinion of the members about her".

The Principlist Majlis deputy, who sits on another bloc as well, said about Sussan Keshavarz, who has been offered the education portfolio: "We have heard that she was active in the campaign headquarters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi."...

The third candidate, Fatemeh Ajorloo, who was picked for the welfare post, was rejected because she "is too good". "It would be a shame if she becomes welfare minister," said the unnamed source, presumably because the ministry is due to be disbanded in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the reformist bloc of the Majlis has decided to vote in favor of Vahid-Dastjerdi.

1420 GMT: The Day's Big (Unseen) Story? I saw this floating around yesterday --- the storyinitially came out on the technology site of the Islamic Republic News Agency and then circulated on other Iranian websites --- but it is only with the help of EA's readers (see comments below) that I could put this together.

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard), which has become just as renowned in recent years for their role in Iran's economy as for their security function, are set to buy a major stakeholding in the Iranian Telecommunications Agency.

Since 2005, Iran had planned to float the shares of the state company, which is one of three operators in the country. One of the other two is owned by Hashemi Rafsanjani, but its reach is limited to Tehran and some smaller smaller cities. The Revolutionary Guard already have a stake in Iran Cell, so if they were successful in their bid for shares of ITA, they would be in a leading position in Iran's two major cellphone providers.

This is unlikely to be a case of the Guard showing up with chequebook in hand to buy the shares. Instead, as has been the case with other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automobiles, the purchase will be made through a front company.

There is also an interesting international twist in this story. Earlier this summer, a Russian company was to be granted a license as the third national cellphone operator, but the process suddenly stalled last month (companies from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were also trying to get the license). The effective suspension is probably linked to the high process the Iranian Government was demanding, but it leaves the Revolutionary Guard in an even stronger position in the cellphone sector.

1400 GMT: In Case Anyone Really Cares. The actual address at Friday prayers in Tehran, as opposed to President Ahmadinejad's introduction, was delivered by Hojetoleslam Sadighi. His headline declaration was that the "world's exceptional crimes" are the crimes of Israel in Palestine.

1330 GMT: Today is turning into a contest of two statements and, in contrast to recent days, Western media are eagerly on top of the story. Former President Khatami's statement to reformist leaders is being juxtaposed with current President Ahmadinejad's speech at Friday prayers.

While there are a complex range of issues in this battle, from the legal issues of detentions/confessions/trials to the institutional challenges of who controls Iran's bureaucracy and security forces to the political showdown over Ahmadinejad's legitimacy, it is this sentence from Khatami that may represent the moment: "'The sacred Friday prayer podium has been given to those who...call for the punishment of prominent figures...while they are accused in the eyes of the public for committing treason themselves."

Even though Khatami was probably referring to Friday prayers past and addresses delivered by "hard-line" clerics such as Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, that sentence will be set next to Ahmadinejad's none-too-subtle call for the arrests of protest leaders.

To put an immediate question: 48 hours after trying to avert a showdown with his own statement, the Supreme Leader finds the confrontation ratcheted up several notches. What does Khamenei do now?

1200 GMT: More details are emerging of former President Khatami's statement in his meeting with leaders of the Reformist Front, via outlets such as Radio Farda and Parleman News. Khatami said that "the black cloud of worthlessness of people's votes under this regime should be eliminated" and that those who opened fire on the people on the streets should be prosecuted.

1150 GMT: Credit to Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times, who has just nailed the significance of this morning's events in his lead paragraph: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad demanded the prosecution of opposition leaders today, raising the nation's political temperature just a day and a half after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sought to cool tempers in a conciliatory speech."

1130 GMT: Fars News Agency have published a summary of Tehran's Friday prayers address by Hojetoleslam Sadighi.

1030 GMT: Press TV has now posted its English summary of the Ahmadinejad speech, featuring the call for the "severe punishment of the orchestrators of the post-election unrest" and its "painful" events.

The President is not backing away from the "velvet revolution" theme, saying that Iranian opposition leaders were "deceived by the enemy's schemes (and) did their best to undermine the high voter turnout in the election and to shake the foundations of the Islamic establishment".

The president said, "I call upon security and judicial officials to decisively and mercilessly act with those who committed inhumane acts in the guise of the friends [of the establishment] since they inflicted damage on people and tarnished the image of the establishment, security and police forces."

0915 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami, meeting members of the Reform Front, has emphasised the need for a stronger presence of the reformists in Iranian politics with continuation of their efforts for change.

0900 GMT: More on the Ahmadinejad Speech. Fars News Agency has posted its summary. The President followed long-established lines with his references to 85 percent participation in the Presidential election and the 25 million who voted for him. This was testimony to the "revolutionary values" and "originality" of Iran. Enemies were trying to separate the "Islamic" and "Republic" in this Iranian revolution; however, Ahmadinejad proclaimed that, "after more than two months", these enemies were "staggering and had lost their way home", failing in their media plans and political efforts.

There was one nice touch in the rhetoric, especially since the President needs to be careful with his references to a "velvet revolution" that the Supreme Leader has now denied. Apparently the British Foreign Minister [David Miliband] had said, when asked why Britain was involved in Iranian affairs, that otherwise work on the Islamic Republic would soon be completed.

0840 GMT: Oh, yes, Ahmadinejad also asked Parliament to show their trust with votes of confidence in his "strong, coherent, professional, and honest" Ministers.

0830 GMT: Mahmoud Speaks. And wow, what a way to begin the introduction to Friday prayers. The President has claimed that attacks on University dormitories just after the 12 June election were staged by "relatives" of students and protestors, complementing their disturbances on the streets.

These acts tried to discredit the Presidential vote, "a matter of genuine democracy unlike other staged elections in the world, where the outcome is predetermined".

0800 GMT: A stuttering start to the day. We were laid low by a server problem but there is still no breaking news to report. We're waiting for first accounts of President Ahmadinejad's introduction of Friday prayers in Tehran, which should include glowing references for his Cabinet nominees.

We've taken the time, during the server outage, to write up a special analysis on the regime's pretext of "velvet revolution" as the cause of the post-election conflict. This, of course, has been true since June, but it came home to us this week with the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh during the 4th Tehran trial. Apparently some of our colleagues (and at least one EA staffer) are now amongst the velvet revolutionaries.

The "Western" media, from The New York Times to experts like Juan Cole, are now catching up with the last major development, the Supreme Leader's speech from Wednesday. (Unless it's The Washington Post, who apparently no longer care about Iran unless the story is about Tehran's nuclear threat; they are silent on Iran today.)

The Latest from Iran (27 August): Catching Breath

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NEW Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Talks, Threats, and Propaganda

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2120 GMT: Well, unless the unexpected happens, it looks like all will be quiet until tomorrow morning's setpiece of President Ahmadinejad's speech introducing Friday prayers in Tehran.

2110 GMT: We took an evening break to recharge but, to be honest, we've returned to a standstill --- no  political developments.

There is, however, curious (and darkly humourous) goings-on at Press TV. The website has repackaged the Supreme Leader's Wednesday night speech under the headline, "Leader urges support for Ahmadinejad's strong suits", and the first paragraph: "The Leader of the Islamic Revolution sheds light on the recent course of events in Iran, urging the nation to stand by the administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."

That opening is superimposed on paragraphs 2-9, which are truer to the original account of the speech (and thus not so warm towards Ahmadinejad, with the exception of one sentence --- not included here --- which has been heavily edited and thus distorted):

Be sure that no crime or atrocity will go unpunished, but with issues of that importance the judiciary should rule based on solid evidence....The establishment [the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran] should take broad actions only after taking into consideration all aspects of the issues, and avoiding assessing the situation only from one dimension....Irregularities and atrocities have been committed during the aftermath of the elections, crimes that will be certainly dealt with....Irregularities and atrocities have been committed during the aftermath of the elections, crimes that will be certainly dealt with.

Question: who made Press TV stick on a "better" headline and opening paragraph, which have little to do with the rest of the article?

1730 GMT: Catching Up With The Story. We had a pop at Michael Slackman and The New York Times earlier today (1320 GMT), so it's only fair to note that Slackman is now up to speed with developments, including the Supreme Leader's statement last night. In "Iran’s Supreme Leader Softens Accusations Against Reformists", just posted on the Internet, and presumably to be published in the print edition in the morning, Slackman writes:

Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments were the latest in a series of small, if significant, steps that appear aimed at slowing President Ahmadinejad’s drive to consolidate power and define members of the reform movement as enemies of the state.

Slackman's article should also be read as the prevailing opinion of US-based analysts like Abbas Milani and Karim Sadjadpour, both of whom are quoted.

1500 GMT: It's All Because the West Hates Me. There is one political statement to note this afternoon. At his eftar dinner breaking the daily Ramadan fast yesterday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad explained the cause of the post-election crisis: "[Western countries] have been humiliated in the last four years and, therefore, wanted to take revenge by encouraging continued unrest....Like you have been slapped in the face by the Iranian people in the last three decades, you have also been slapped this time."

The President then offered a deal to his enemies, "Although they [the West] did not act rationally, I still hope they can make amends for their mistake by making a global commitment not to interfere in Iran anymore."

Hmm....Apparently, Ahmadinejead hadn't received the message that, just before his dinner, the Supreme Leader was denying that the Western countries were behind "continued unrest".

1400 GMT: By far the quietist day in the post-election crisis, with next to nothing coming out of Iran on political and legal manoeuvres. The reformist site Norooz is highlighting new photographs of the alleged site of secret burials of 40 protestors at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery. Reuters is running, from Parleman News, the statement from an unnamed MP: ""Raping of some detainees with a baton and soda bottle has been proven to us."

1320 GMT: How Twitter is Overtaking Mainstream Media. I've just had an interesting exchange with some correspondents, appropriately enough via Twitter, on its use for reporting and analysis. My position is that Twitter is invaluable in finding and putting together and interpreting the latest news, as opposed to the position --- held by some "mainstream" broadcasters --- that it is primarily useful to give the reactions of readers/viewers, since it is unreliable as a source for news.

In that context, a note. Enduring America, following up Twitter leads, first reported on the Supreme Leader's important speech to student leaders at 1845 GMT yesterday. We had an interim analysis up by 1915 GMT, and it was a key part of today's in-depth analysis, "The Regime's Knockout Punch? Not Quite", posted at 0655 GMT.

CNN's first mention of the Supreme Leader's speech? "US, UK Not Meddling in Iran", published at 1256 GMT today.

1040 GMT: US Media to Iranian Protestors, "You're Pawns in Our Nuclear Game."

It's bad enough that supposedly top-quality US media are now well behind the story in Iran. In today's New York Times, Michael Slackman writes that "aides to Iran’s president lashed out publicly at two former presidents" on Wednesday but still seems unaware that Hashemi Rafsanjani was attacked the day before in the Tehran trial.

What's really unsettling, however, is that The Washington Post isn't bothered any longer to consider the story as one of Iranians seeking changes to their Islamic Republic. At least Slackman and The New York Times tried today to assess the political situation --- the Post doesn't bother with an article.

Instead, the Post launches into an editorial attack instead on the "sickening spectacle" of the "Stalinist mass show trial". It does so, however, not out of concern for the rights of the defendants, detainees, or demonstrators. Three days ago, the newspaper seized on dubious propaganda spread by "Western officials" to demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency disclose information supposedly proving that Iran is pursuing The Bomb. Today, for the newspaper, any concern is reduced to that all-important nuclear question and "the challenge for Washington in engaging with a regime of questionable legitimacy, dubious lines of authority and an uncertain grip on power".

1010 GMT: Professor Alireza Farshi has been released on bail from detention. It is also reported that lawyer Abdolfatah Soltani is free on bail after 72 days in prison.

0900 GMT: To be honest, after the dramatic twists of the last 48 hours, there is very little to report this morning. So we've concentrated on our analysis of the Ahmadinejad Government's failure to knock out the opposition with Tuesday's trial and on another developing story, the propaganda around Iran's nuclear programme ahead of an important international meeting on 14 September.

One very disturbing incident to note, however, with the sudden re-appearance of the blog of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi (pictured). It's an obvious propaganda move by the Government, with Abtahi generously allowed to resume his writing while still in detention: "I said, 'Anything that I write must be my own. You can only tell me what things I should NOT write.' [The interrogator] agreed."

Maryam at Keeping the Change reprints the blog entry with a short, sharp analysis: "While the blog entry does include a call for the release of the political prisoners, the overall pro-Establishment message seems clear....The government is likely to keep Abtahi in detention and blogging, for some time."

The Latest from Iran: Responding to the Trial (26 August)

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume
The 4th Tehran Trial: The Tehran Bureau Summary
Video: The 4th Tehran Trial (25 August)
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani

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2145 GMT: The Tehran Times has published an English summary of the letter from the Rafsanjani office striking back at former 1st Vice President and current Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1225 and 1545 GMT):

“Mr. Mashaii’s record in making incorrect and illogical statements is so clear that there is no need for a reply,” but in light of the fact that the person who has made such fabrications was supposed to become the president’s first vice president and is currently the chief of staff of the Presidential Office, it seems that there is “a very complex conspiracy” to create conflict among the pillars of the establishment, part of the statement read.

The statement also called Rahim-Mashaii’s remarks hallucinations and added that the Supreme Leader had earlier warned the country’s officials about such hallucinations.

2110 GMT: Associated Press has published an English summary of Ayatollah Montazeri's open letter (see 1605 GMT): "The biggest oppression ... is despotic treatment of the people in the name of Islam. I hope the responsible authorities give up the deviant path they are pursuing and restore the trampled rights of the people....I hope authorities...have the courage to announce that this ruling system is neither a republic nor Islamic and that nobody has the right to express opinion or criticism."

2055 GMT: The Rafsanjani Fightback. Remember the former President's delay in passing Mehdi Karroubi's 29 July letter asking for an investigation of abuse claims? Well, after yesterday's trial events, compare and contrast this news: Rafsanjani has passed the cases of two rape victims to the Supreme Leader, to Ayatollah Montazeri, and to Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq.

2000 GMT: Some members of Parliament are objecting to the composition of the special National Security Committee investigating post-election events such as abuse of detainees. Their concern is that three pro-Ahmadinejad members of the committee have already asserted in interviews that the prisoners are in good condition and that there has been no torture, rape, or secret burials.

1945 GMT: Fars News has now published (as has Parleman News) a full summary of the Supreme Leader's statement, initially given to a meeting of the Student Leaders of the Islamic Revolution. It contains the extracts we've noted below, within this context: Ayatollah Khamenei noted incidents such as raids on University dormitories and clashes in the Central Bazaar area soon after the election but put these within the context of the legitimacy in which 85 percent of the population participated.

1915 GMT: Reuters adds an important proviso on the Khamenei statement. Just because he is stepping away from the "velvet revolution" charge does not mean he is giving complete absolution to the demonstrators: "There is no doubt that this movement, whether its leaders know or not, was planned in advance."

The Reuters framing also indicates that the Supreme Leader may not have been rejecting the current trials but drawing a line against any more arrests of key opposition figures.

1900 GMT: Want Some More? How about a possible slap-down of the trials and detentions from the Supreme Leader? "We should not proceed in dealing with those behind the protests based on rumours and guesswork. The judiciary should only give rulings based on solid evidence, not on circumstantial evidence."

And let's add a warning that some of those involved in detentions and violence against protestors may face their own reckoning: "I appreciate the work of the police and Basij [militia] in dealing with the riots, but this does not mean that some of the crimes which occurred will not be dealt with and anyone who is a member of those two who committed a fault should be dealt with."

1845 GMT: An Important Signal? The Supreme Leader has finally emerged after yesterday's trial, and it looks like he may be putting some distance between himself and President Ahmadinejad. In a statement read on state TV, Ayatollah Khamenei declared:

I do not accuse the leaders of the recent incidents to be subordinate to the foreigners, like the United States and Britain, since this issue has not been proven for me. This plot was defeated, since fortunately our enemies still do not understand the issue in Iran. Our enemies were given a slap in face by the Iranian nation, but they are still hopeful and they are pursuing the issue.

It is one thing for the Supreme Leader to rebuff the President's attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani, but this appears to be a message to back off the campaign against the reformists.

1605 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri has re-entered the political arena with an open letter: "For worldly gains, gentlemen have closed their eyes and ears and hearts on all facts. They should have courage and announce that this regime is neither Islamic nor Republic."

1555 GMT: A Crack in the Coverage. Press TV English's website, in contrast to the anti-reformist drumbeat of much of Iran's state media, has an extended feature on the refusal of defendant Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the deputy head of the Islamic Iran Participant Front (see yesterday's updates, 1720 GMT) to confess after yesterday's trial: "As a reformist I have always held clear positions. I have always opposed all forms of illegal activities and my stance has not changed."

1545 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani Fightback. The response of Rafsanjani's office to the statements of former 1st Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1225 GMT) has not only called them pure fabrications but has stated, "Mashai and Ahmadinejad must defend their accusations in an honest and qualified court."

1535 GMT: Who Will Have Dinner with Mahmoud? Understandably, there has been much glee amongst opponents of the President at the news that only 20 of 290 MPs showed up at his "breaking of the fast" meal on Sunday. An EA correspondent sends in a more accurate and more important assessment:

Instead of lobbying the conservative faction as a whole over his Cabinet choices, Ahmadinejad has decided to enter into individual negotiations with MPs from economically challenged areas and remote provinces.

He has been trying to woo these MPs by inviting them for Eftar, the evening meal of Ramadan, at the Presidential residence. However, although the number of these parties have increased, most MPs have given Ahmadinejad the cold shoulder. Only 1/3 of the MPs from economically-challenged areas and remote provinces have broken bread with the president. One of the pro-Ahmadinejad MPs has declared that eight of the suggested ministers lack basic qualifications for attaining confidence votes.

1520 GMT: 24 hours after the latest post-election trial, Mehdi Karroubi has written to the new head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to congratulate him and to express his hope, "considering the sensitive political and social conditions", that Larijani will ensure "the implementation of the Constitution, the legal defense of freedom and citizenship rights, and the maintenance legal justice to defend the dignity of the system".

1240 GMT: EA Public Service Announcement. Initially we were going to bring out a detailed analysis today of the Tehran trial and its impact, but we're watching carefully how certain groups and individuals, especially Hashemi Rafsanjani, manoeuvre. So the special analysis, "Iran Showdown: The Regime's Battle on Three Fronts", will be posted Thursday morning.

1225 GMT: And That's Not All. Rafsanjani, or those allied with him, have also struck back in a statement condemning recent remarks by the former First Vice President and Ahmadinejad ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1210 GMT: Picking up on the Rafsanjani fightback against the charges in the Tehran trial, we should note that Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, did not merely proclaim his innocence. He also turned the allegations of corruption and mismanagement back against the President, claiming that Tehran had "lost" 340 billion tomans (almost $3.5 million) when Ahmadinejad was Mayor of the city.

1130 GMT: The offer of former President Mohammad Khatami has issued a statement criticising "confessions" in the Tehran trials, obtained under "extraordinary circumstances", as invalid and rejecting the specific charges that were made against him. (Reuters has an English-language summary.)

0815 GMT: The Disappearing American. The US media's coverage of the Tehran trial yesterday was poor, and reporters still have no clue about the significance of the testimony about the Rafsanjani family. Even so, there appears to be an extraordinary gap in their coverage.

When French national Clotilde Reiss appeared in an earlier trial, she was the focus of attention from "Western" press. However, when academic Kian Tajbakhsh, a dual Iran-US national, not only appeared as a defendant but testified yesterday, the American media seem to have been asleep. CNN refers to Tajbakhsh only in the context of Saeed Hajjarian's testimony (MSNBC does briefly mention Tajbaksh's statement). The New York Times leaves the academic out of their summary.

We hope to have a full analysis later of how the Iranian regime is using Tajbakhsh, as well as the Iranian defendants, to construct the "velvet revolution" that is supposedly threatening Tehran.

0805 GMT: Irony Alert. Less than 24 hours after Tuesday's trial, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, the former Minster of Intelligence and Iran's new Prosecutor General, has declared: "The performance of justice must start with the judiciary."

0800 GMT: Tuesday's Other Court Appearance. Hossein Karroubi, the son of Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, was summoned to court to answer charges about his involvement in post-election conflict. He later spoke with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: "They brought up several charges against me, including propaganda against the establishment, spreading prostitution, agitating public opinion, attempting to [assist] rioters, and so on. I responded that the country's youth had shed its blood in the streets, and young detainees in prison had been killed in the worst possible ways. We talked about what these things [mean] for the health of the [state]. They let me go after I paid bail."

Hossein Karorubi added that Monday's discussion between his father and members of Parliament over Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of abuse of detainees was "a very good meeting. Both the parliament members and Mr. Karroubi were satisfied....They first have to investigate the four cases, then Mr. Karroubi will present other cases."

0650 GMT: No to a Presidential Bright Idea. Ahmadinejad, in a move which I am sure is unconnected with current politics, proposed that working hours in governmental offices and banks be reduced during Ramadan by more than three hours each day. Speaker of Parliament Larijani squashed the ploy, however, declaring that the proposal was "against the constitution".

0640 GMT: More on the Secret Burials of Protestors. In this video interview with BBC Persian, Hanif Mazroui, the editor-in-chief of Norooz Online, has offered additional evidence of how government officials forced the staff of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to inter 40 bodies of slain demonstrators in mid-July.

Yesterday the managing director of the cemetery was fired by the Government, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has ordered that a group of MPs investigate the allegations.

0630 GMT: The next public stage in the battle? It could be this Friday's prayers in Tehran.

The big event will not be the prayer address, led by Hojatoleslam Sadighi. Instead, it will be the introduction to prayers by President Ahmadinejad. No doubt there will be politics behind (and perhaps in front of) religion, with the President following up on the attacks of the trial and making the case for his Cabinet 48 hours before Parliament begins voting on his Ministerial nominations.

But, further down the religious and political roads, the Friday prayer service to watch will be on the last Friday of Ramadan, which I think will be 18 Spetember. On Qods Day, the prayer leader will be Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0625 GMT: It seems so long ago, but it was only last Saturday that Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement to the Expediency Council prompted feverish speculation on whether he was giving in to the regime, with his call for unity behind the Supreme Leader, or setting up his next manoeuvre. To help clarify matters --- and read into that whatever you wish --- Rafsanjani's website has put up the audio of the former President's statement.

600 GMT: We should get a sense today of the effectiveness of the regime's dramatic move yesterday, using the Tehran trial not only as an all-out assault on the reformist movement but against the challenge of Hashemi Rafsanjani. We're working on a full analysis for later today. (Here are a couple of teasers: did the Supreme Leader support the assault? And how will the conservatives and principlists, with a majority inside Parliament and powerful figures outside it, react given their recent disquiet with President Ahmadinejad's approach on detentions?)

Meanwhile, another clue from the trial pointing to Rafsanjani as a primary target for Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard. The journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, a key figure in the Kargozaran party linked to Rafsanjani, was brought out again --- he had "confessed" on national television after the first trial --- to attack the former President's June letter to the Supreme Leader that raised concerns about manipulation of the election. The "criticism was inappropriate" and "not suitable for national publication".