The Latest from Iran (21 August): Political Battles

NEW Video: The Sohrab Protests (20 August)
EA Soundcheck: Assessing Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq
The Latest from Iran (20 August): Grinding to a Halt

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2035 GMT: We had heard rumours all day about this story but, given its explosive nature, had held off posting without confirmation. It has now appeared on a "reformist site", Norooz, and has been recommended by the Facebook page of Zahra Rahnavard, Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife.

A member of staff of a Tehran cemetery told Norooz that on both 12 July and 15 July, the bodies of tens of protestors were brought in without any identification, secretly and under strict security. Staff were forced to issue compulsory burial licences, and the bodies were interred in Section 302 of the cemetery.

2030 GMT: We had reported earlier on protests last night in Tehran (1015 GMT), but it is only after seeing some video that a reader recommended that we realised quite how powerful those demonstrations, both against President Ahmadinejad and in honour of slain protestors such as Sohrab Arabi and Neda Agha Soltan, were. We have posted the video in a separate entry.

2010 GMT: Follow-up on Kayhan. It looks like the "hard-line" newspaper will escape suspension. Tabnak reports that the Tehran Prosecutor's office has denied accounts that the Media Court ordered Kayhan's temporary closure after its editor twice failed to answer court summons. (An English-language summary is on Tehran Bureau.)

1945 GMT: More extracts from the significant event of the day, Friday prayers in Qom (1445 GMT), where Ayatollah Amini criticised the Government:

You are not one another’s enemy. You are all in favor of the establishment, Islam and the rule of the Just Jurisprudent. Why don’t you, instead of talking to the enemy, talk to one another and find a solution to this disunity?

I am not talking about one party or the other… You, as the elite, must sit down and talk. If injustice has really been done to people, deal with it. If an innocent has been incarcerated, release him. And if someone has been shamed [publicly], apologize to him, and properly deal with those who are really guilty.

How must I advise you to set aside disunity for it to register? We are not enemies and our solidarity is possible. Resolve this issue through dialogue and stop giving the enemy something to talk about.

If you want to mend the situation as caring individuals, end the conflict and prevent it from expanding.

1445 GMT: News is emerging that the significant Friday prayers address was not in Tehran but from Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini in Qom. Amini demanded the release of all innocent prisoners and comforted those who had been unfairly victimised by recent events. Reportedly, the sermon has caused supporters of the pro-Government Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi to back away from plans to protest against Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i and his now-famous video condemnation of the regime.

Amini's address follows his meeting this week, with other clerics, with the Supreme Leader, reportedly to raise criticisms about the role of Khamenei's son Mojtaba in political affairs.

1130 GMT: Officially, Not a Peach. President Ahmadinejad's office has removed his reference to former Minister of Health Kamran Lankarani as "a peach one wants to eat" (see 1000 GMT) from the official transcript of his televised broadcast.

1030 GMT: Iran Republic News Agency does not mention Jannati's challenge to arrest opposition leaders although it says he pointed out "the consequences of slander".

1025 GMT: Jannati Answers. In our first update (0645 GMT), we advised, "Watch...for how far Jannati pushes for punishment of the "ringleaders" of the protest."

Here's the response from Friday prayers in Tehran: "Riots are our main issue today ... Some people were arrested and some were not. Why weren't the leaders behind the riots arrested? ... Their arrest should be the first thing that the judiciary must do."

1015 GMT: A bit more on the broadcast: a reader points us to this from the Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz, "There were rooftop protests all over the country and especially the Apadana area in Tehran [the neighbourhood of Sohrab Arabi, who was killed on 15 June but whose death was not confirmed for a month]. People gathered ...in streets in protest and were chanting 'Death to Dictator'. This was in solidarity with Sohrab’s family, as it was also the 40th day anniversary of his martyrdom."

1005 GMT: Ahmadinejad - Compromise or Showdown? There is one clue in last night's Presidential broadcast for this question, highlighted in an EA Soundcheck yesterday. Ahmadinejad said that, if the Ministry of Intelligence had done its job properly, there would have been no post-election conflict.

That's a clear slap at former Minister of Intelligence Ejeie and Iran's judiciary, which has just appointed him as Prosecutor General. But it also is a shot in the ongoing battle over who controls the Ministry, amidst the firing of up to 25 key officials. Look for a response from "conservative" and "principlist" opponents of Ahmadinejad.

1000 GMT: It is a relatively slow news day in Iran. We're awaiting the summary of Ayatollah Jannati's Friday prayer address in Tehran, and there has been surprisingly little reaction to President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast promoting his Cabinet choices.

We'll take advantage of the pause to feature the "hot" story on the Internet about the broadcast, noting the President's remarks about his outgoing Minister of Health, Kamran Lankarani: "In his TV appearance last night, Ahmadinejad praised him as one of the most able administrators of his previous cabinet and said: 'I have a special personal interest in him, a pious and faithful young man. Once I said he is like a peach, one wants to eat him!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQUwNDG1Tdc[/youtube]

I leave further interpretation and analysis up to EA readers.

0725 GMT: Picking up on another (largely unreported) story from yesterday. A Parliamentary Commission member has warned that Mir Hossein Mousavi's proposed "Green Path of Hope" political front will not receive a license for public activity.

0700 GMT: Last night's EA Soundcheck podcast includes a lengthy discussion of the pressure on President Ahmadinejad, both from inside the "establishment" and from public protest. General verdict? The President is in a long-term battle. I don't think he'll win, but before that comes the urgent question, will he offer any compromise or press even harder (possibly in co-operation with the Revolutionary Guard) for a showdown?

One clue to an answer: see if next Tuesday's fourth round of trials of political detainees goes ahead and how much publicity it gets in state media.

0645 GMT: With Ramadan starting tomorrow, this could be the last full day for political manoeuvres for the next few weeks. At the same time, nothing can defer the manoeuvres over President Ahmadinejad's submission of his Cabinet choices to the Iran Parliament.

And the challenge may have another dimension. An EA correspondent has reviewed the speech that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani gave to the Iranian Society of Engineers, mentioned in yesterday's updates. He notes that Larijani offered a response to Mehdi Karroubi's initiative on the abuse of detainees.

On Wednesday, Karroubi sent an official letter to Larijani asking him to arrange a meeting including Ahmadinejad, the head of Iran's judiciary, Mohammad Larijani, the head of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the Prosecutor General, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, where Karroubi would produce his graphic evidence of the abuses.

Larijani said yesterday that he is willing to participate in such a meeting, "We do not want to preserve any secrecy in this regard and hide any evidence from the public." So will the Speaker not only willingness but press for the gathering, knowing this could be the issue that bends if not breaks the Ahmadinejad Government?

On the public front, Ayatollah Jannati will lead Friday prayers in Tehran today. Expect a hard-line address continuing the recent theme, after last week's replacement of Hashemi Rafsanjani by Ahmad Khatami, supporting the Supreme Leader and Government and deriding the foreign-inspired protest movement. Watch, however, for how far Jannati pushes for punishment of the "ringleaders" of the protest.

The Latest from Iran (17 August): Waiting for the Next Manoeuvre

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Questions for the “Green Path of Hope” and for the Government
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The Latest from Iran (16 August): New Challenge to Khamenei?

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2105 GMT: Jomhoori Eslami has published a statement from 120 physicians and faculty members. After condemning the harsh and savage treatment of protesters, they assert, "It is imperative that, when the credentials of individuals aspiring to high office is being reviewed, their mental health should also be reviewed by a knowledgeable committee that the people can trust".

2100 GMT: Amir Mohsen Mohammadi, student and human rights activist, has been released from detention on $150,000 bail. Mohammadi had been detained since 14 June.

1945 GMT: Our Top Tribute to Journalism. Earlier today (0930 GMT) we awarded the Gold Medal for Dumbest Western Image for #IranElection to Time magazine's "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?"

Who, you may ask, was the previous winner? Reza Sayah of CNN for his profile of Zahra Rahnavard, Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, "a woman some [i.e., Reza Sayah of CNN] are calling Iran's Michelle Obama".

1920 GMT: The sharp-eyed Josh Shahryar noted that, in its report on Sunday's third Tehran trial, Press TV's website referred to "Iran's disputed Presidential vote", the first time that the qualifier "disputed" had appeared in state media. So today's brief item on clashes outside the offices of Etemade Melli further raised an eyebrow: "All gatherings have been banned in a crackdown on mass protests that erupted after the disputed election of 12 June.

1840 GMT: 48 Hours to Go. Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is getting warning signals about those Cabinet choices. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the Chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, has said, “The Majlis [Parliament] expects the president to select ministers carefully.” Deputy Speaker Mohammad-Reza Bahonar gave Ahmadinejad a wrist-slap for Sunday's televised announcement of six proposed ministers, presented without any information to Parliament, “This time the president introduced some of the nominees directly through media which is unprecedented."

1830 GMT: As President Ahmadinejad prepares to propose his Cabinet, the Supreme Leader is moving his own pieces on the political chessboard. He has appointed Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, who just stepped down as head of Iran's judiciary, to both the Expediency Council and the Guardian Council.

1715 GMT: The spokesman of Mehdi Karroubi's party Etemade Melli has told Saham News that judicial officials will meet tomorrow with the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper to discuss outstanding issues. The spokesman stated that there is a high probability that, after the conclusion of this meeting, Etemade Melli will resume publication.

1650 GMT: Peykairan reports that 15 people were arrested, two women beaten, and a bus attacked in clashes in 7 Tir Square.

1605 GMT: Read This Signal. Press TV English highlights Hashemi Rafsanjani's speech at the inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani today:

"In case of delivering fair verdicts, the society will have a sense of security and no one will feel helpless in asserting his violated rights," said the head of the Assembly of Experts.

Hashemi-Rafsanjani warned that if the nation feels troubled by the judicial treatment of detainees "the society will descent into chaos."

That would have been hard enough for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to hear (except, according to some reports, he walked out before the end of the speech). But how about this? Press TV, a state media outlet, headlines the account to pin the blame on the Government: "In Iran, Rafsanjani links 'Unjust' Verdicts to Chaos."

1500 GMT: Very reliable sources have confirmed to EA that the suspension of Etemade Melli "until further notice", reported by Iranian Students News Agency earlier today, is true. The communique from the Culture Ministry rescinds the publishing licence of Etemade Melli due to its "repeated publication" of "illegal" articles that have produced "many complaints".

1344 GMT: Associated Press, from Iranian state television, is reporting the following statement from Mohammad Sadegh Larijani at his inauguration ceremony as head of Iran's judiciary: "Nobody should dare ... to violate rights or security of citizens. I announce that I will not forgive anybody in this regard and violators will be put on trial."

1340 GMT: Reliable Twitter source says journalist Kaveh Mozaffari will be released from detention today. Mozaffari was arrested on 9 July, the day of the 18 Tir demonstrations.

1325 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz claims that, despite the initial ban on its publication (later denied by Tehran's chief prosecutor, who said that it was just "printing problems"), Etemade Melli newspaper did appear today.

1320 GMT: Reuters reports, "Up to 60 opposition supporters chanted 'Death to the Dictator' Monday near the building of a reformist newspaper....Police at the scene in downtown Tehran prevented the demonstrators from gathering in front of the offices of the Etemad-e Melli newspaper of leading reformist Mehdi Karoubi, the witness said."

1310 GMT: Twitter filled with unconfirmed reports of clashes in front of offices of Etemade Melli, with Basiji militia allegedly attacking demonstrators. Other reports that protestors are moving towards 7 Tir Square.

1220 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the video of the encounter between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hashemi Rafsanjani at today's inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary. An EA correspondent comments, "Have to say that Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad warmth is slightly unnerving."

1130 GMT: A Very Interesting Development. According to the Iranian Labour News Agency, Hashemi Rafsanjani is taking part in the inauguration ceremony for Sadegh Larijani. Other people attending are President Ahmadinejad, former Revolutionary Guard chief Rahim Safavi, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, Speaker of Palriament Ali Larijani, Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, and Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Khadkhodai.

One EA correspondent asks, "Is Rafsanjani breaking ranks? He surely looks like fish out of the water in this midst." Or is Rafsanjani trying to build up his political base by showing that, amidst the tensions and conflicts with the President, he can still work with other Establishment figures. Or, to put the issue narrowly, is Sadegh Larijani's appointment so important for Rafsanjani that his public support outweighs his association with those he might consider as political enemies?

1045 GMT: A very slow news morning, punctuated only by this Twitter chatter: "Sea of Green will gather 4pm TODAY (Mordad 26/August 17) Karimkhan St". Etemade Melli party website, connected with Mehdi Karroubi, continues to feature headline that gathering for today in front of Etemade Melli newspaper has been called off.

0930 GMT: Possibly the Dumbest Headline of This Crisis. Congratulations, Time magazine: "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?" This attempt to give the Larijani brothers a "Western" makeover continues in the opening paragraph:

The brothers Larijani — often referred to as the Kennedys of Iran — are emerging as a powerful counterweight to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from within the conservative camp. And unlike other Ahmadinejad rivals, the Larijanis are fully endorsed by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei.

Several problems with that political "analysis" spring to mind. Even a passing look at our analyses over the last week of the manoeuvres within the Iranian establishment --- Parliament, the judiciary, the Ministry of Intelligence, the Supreme Leader, the President, the Revolutionary Guard, the clerics of Qom --- should offer a complex situation that goes beyond Larijanis in the Blue Corner, with the Supreme Leader as their towelman, and Mahmoud in the Red Corner.

For now, however, we ask readers, especially in Iran: do you know of any reference inside the country to the Larijanis as "the Kennedys"?

0715 GMT: Might as well begin today's updates with a chuckle. The chief prosecutor of Tehran, Saeed Mortazavi, has denied that last night's closure of the Etemade Melli newspaper, associated with Mehdi Karroubi (pictured), was because of a Government order: "Etemade Melli has not been shut down....[The paper] was not distributed on Monday following problems in its printing-office."

According to Mehdi Karroubi's son, Hossein, the paper was ordered to halt its presses after publishing a letter from Mehdi Karroubi responding to "insults" against him over his allegations of abuse of detainees.

0710 GMT:  A quiet start to the morning so we've posted an analysis which we hope will be both informative and provocative, "Question for the 'Green Path of Hope' and for the Government".

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2050 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement today. The text goes beyond our initial analysis (1700 GMT): this is a concerted and, in my opinion, clever attempt to turn the "foreign interference" charge back on the regime. It is the Government's actions such as detentions, propaganda, and lies, Mousavi says, that makes the Islamic Republic vulnerable to the manipulations of powers such as the United States.

1910 GMT: Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib has asked for an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts, saying it is the duty of the Experts to the Iranian people "to maintain the Constitution".

1855 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has responded to Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's statement that he "wanted evidence" of  allegations of detainee abuse, contained in a letter from Karroubi to Hashemi Rafsanjani. A Karroubi spokesman said that information would be provided on the charges, which included rapes of women and young boys.

(A side note: it is now being claimed that state media exaggerated Larijani's statement when it said he called Karroubi's allegations of rape "a lie" --- see 0720 GMT.)

1840 GMT: Mahmoud is God. So says Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, who told a gathering of "Basij Artists", "Once the President has received the investment from the Supreme eader, the holiness of the Supreme Leader is transferred to him as well, therefore people should obey the President as if they obey God."

1815 GMT: Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, following up his criticism of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday, has said that if allegations of abuse of detainees are proven, "all the related officials should be dismissed and tried" on criminal charges.

1750 GMT: Saeed Mortazavi, the prosecutor in charge of the trials of those arrested during the post-election conflict, says the hearings for French national Clotilde Reiss have been completed, but her conviction and/or sentence has yet to be determined: "Reiss is still in jail but her trial is over and any decision on her release on bail or remaining in prison will be taken by the judge."


1735 GMT: An Iranian website has published the list of about 100 individuals who are banned from appearing on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. (No one from Enduring America is on the list...yet.)

1730 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, the website for the Green movement, carries the dramatic allegation that a member of the Guardian Council, in the presence of the Supreme Leader, testified to widespread "cheating" in the Presidential election.

1700 GMT: Back from break with partial question, asked in our initial update, about the next move of opposition leaders. Mir Hossein Mousavi's website, Ghalam News, has declared, "What happens in Iran's prisons these days clearly shows the necessity of a deep change in the country." The new twist is an attempt by Mousavi to turn the charges of "foreign interference" against the regime: "Could America harm Iran ... as much as these events in prisons have damaged the (1979 Islamic) revolution and the country?" (Reuters has a summary in English.)

1300 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency has given a guarded acknowledgement that all was not normal in the bazaar in Tehran today, referring to "the presence of security forces in the market". The article emphasised, "The market should be calm....A market with any gathering "is the opposite".

1100 GMT: Twitter reports on today's demonstration at the Central Bazaar in Tehran are offering a pattern of events common from earlier gatherings: mobile phone service cut off to hinder communication, police trying to prevent any mass grouping, and demonstrators shifting to other places.

0930 GMT: Fars News Agency reports that Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami will lead Friday prayers in Tehran. In his prayer addresses since 12 June, Khatami has taken a hard line regarding protestors, on one occasion threatening the death penalty, but has also criticised President Ahmadinejad.

0855 GMT: Shajarian Update. Good news for fans of the Iranian classical singer, who has refused to allow the broadcast of his songs on Iranian state media as a protest against President Ahmadinejad's depiction of the opposition as "dust". It seems that some of Shajarian's music will soon be available via the Internet.

0845 GMT: No confirmed information on size of protest at Central Bazaar in Tehran today, but Twitter chatter claims a significant turnout and a large presence of security forces. One live Farsi-language blog is claiming that Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, joined the demonstrators and that 80 percent of the Bazaar's shops are closed.

0800 GMT: Discussion is heating up on the latest statement of Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, which is being seen by some as an open challenge to the ultimate authority of the Supreme Leader. Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page offers this summary: "The Supreme Leader other than being fair should also obey the constitution and comply with the Assembly of Experts and as soon as he loses these conditions will automatically loses [sic] his position."

0735 GMT: It has been officially announced that, as expected, Mohammad Sadeq Larijani (the brother of Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani) will replace Ayatollah Mahmoud Shahroudi as head of Iran's judiciary on 15 August. Mohammad Sadeq Larijani is a member of the Assembly of Experts and of the Guardian Council; another Larijani brother, Mohammad Javad, is head of the judiciary's human rights division.


0730 GMT: Fintan Dunne in Sea of Green Radio offers an interesting analysis of Iran's release, on bail, of the French-Iranian national and French Embassy employee Nazak Afshar: "Repression of the type which the Iranian regime is attempting requires both brute force and political...savvy. The brutality has been on vivid display, but the savvy tellingly absent."

0720 GMT: Larijani Walks the Tightrope. The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, is quoted by the Islamic Republic News Agency, in response to the claims in Mehdi Karroubi's letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani, ""The issue of detainees being sexually abused is a lie. Following an investigation of detainees in Kahrizak and Evin prisons, no cases of rape and sexual abuse were found."

The denial comes only a day after Larijani called for a Parliamentary investigation of the treatment of detainees, and the Speaker has also been in the lead in requesting other enquiries into the behaviour of security forces.

Analysis? On the one hand, Larijani wants to maintain some authority for the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis, and thus some pressure on the Government. On the other, he does not want to lose control of those investigations, especially not to the Green opposition.

0705 GMT: We have just posted an English translation and a brief analysis of the indictment in the Tehran trials of almost 100 detainees.

0645 GMT: Another Warning for Ahmadinejad. Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, following the firing of the Minister of Intelligence and more than 20 other officials in the Ministry, has criticised, “The personnel of the ministries of foreign affairs, intelligence and defense … are not suddenly fired or retired in any country as such a move would create many doubts.”

Significantly, given the Parliamentary pressure on the President,  the warning from Rezaei, who is Secretary of the Expediency Council, was sent in a letter to Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani.

0600 GMT: Two months ago, a Presidential election was held in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three hours after the polls closed, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the victor with almost two-thirds of the vote.

Today that President, who was finally inaugurated a week ago, still struggles to establish his authority. On Tuesday, the "principlist" bloc, the largest in Iran's Parliament with 202 of 490 representatives, wrote a letter to Ahmadinejad insisting that his choices for Ministerial posts must have "experience and expertise". The letter comes after a day after the President had to hold an emergency meeting over the principlists amidst criticism of several of his selections for high-profile offices.

And the opposition two months later? It is still very much present, though in what numbers and what forces is unclear. After the setback of Hashemi Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran, activists in the Green movement is trying to rally today with marches to central bazaars in major cities. The first protests are scheduled for 10 a.m. local time (0630 GMT). The leaders of that movement have been relatively low-key in recent days, apart from Mehdi Karroubi's attempts to press for movement on the detainees issue. I

And the Supreme Leader? Well, he apparently now has his own Facebook page.

Iran and the Facebook-Twitter Cyber-Attacks

A source close to Enduring America offers the compelling hypothesis that the recent attacks on Facebook and Twitter may have been aimed at the Green Movement.

“Judging by my past IT experience and the way things developed yesterday, it appears that Facebook administrators put the pages of Karroubi, Mousavi, Zahra R, etc offline in order to stabilise the flow of the entire system, as the DDOS would ostensibly cease once the sites were seemingly knocked off air. This is why FB did not entirely go off air – the pressure on it abated once the reformists page were suspended. Twitter on the other hand was a free for all target, and had to withstand more damage. Another thing that lends credence to this theory is that fact that none of the the suspended pages have lost content or have been defaced. However, all this is speculation until FB and Twitter officially announce what went on yesterday.”

Edit: Facebook have subsequently confirmed to the BBC that the strike was actually aimed at a pro-Georgian blogger known as Cyxymu. In an interview with The Guardian, Cyxymu blamed the Russian Government for instigating the cyber attack.