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Entries in Expediency Council (6)

Monday
Aug242009

The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match

NEW Israel Shock Announcement: Saudis Go Nuclear…All Tehran’s Fault
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The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?


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IRAN GREEN

2110 GMT: In addition to providing the first set of his evidence of detainee abuse to Parliament, Mehdi Karroubi has responded to criticism from a conservative MP, Ahmad Tavakoli, that the revelations were against Karroubi's revolutionary background and would have bad consequences. Karroubi said that it was not right to sacrifice "our religion, dignity and bravery for the benefit of ourselves" and that the regime's is to no one's benefits.

2100 GMT: Returning to the comments of former 1st Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1315 GMT), more to raise a smile than to offer any analysis. Rahim-Mashai said that the election had demonstrated President Ahmadinejad's historic and extraordinary popularity in the world, a popularity unique before and after the Islamic Revolution. He added that, had it not been for the “challenges” that the Ahmadinejad Administration created in the world, Iran would not be as successful as it is today. (Press TV has a summary in English.)

1945 GMT: The Los Angeles Times blog "Babylon & Beyond" has summarised the first testimony of detainee abuse produced by Mehdi Karroui (see 1535 and 1930 GMT):
Iranian officials interviewed an alleged victim of jailhouse rape at the hands of security personnel. But instead of consoling him, they asked him embarrassing questions and blamed him for the violence.

They said it was the young man's own fault for protesting the results of Iran's June 12 presidential elections, according to a fresh account of the alleged rape published on the website of a prominent reformist politician.

"I asked them why I and others were raped in prison," the young man says he asked two interrogators and a judge who had agreed to hear his story....

One of the three replied, "'When the supreme leader confirmed the election result, everyone should have recognized it."

1940 GMT: For What It's Worth. Press TV, citing Ayandeh newspaper, reports that the managing director of the Behehst-e-Zahra cemetery has denied the secret burial of post-election casualties. Norooz claimed earlier this week, from information provided by a cemetery employee, that security forces had forced staff to inter 40 bodies.

1930 GMT: Tabnak reports that Kazam Jalali of the Parliament National Security Committee has met with Mehdi Karroubi to discuss Karroubi's initial presentation of evidence on the sexual abuse of detainees (see 1535 GMT). The Los Angeles Times offers an English summary quoting Jalali, “Karoubi agreed to introduce four persons, who have met him personally and claimed that they were tortured and raped in prison, to Parliament. Karoubi told us these four persons are ready to provide their testimonies that they were sexually abused, but they do not feel secure.”

1600 GMT: Cyber-Wars. We will probably run a feature tomorrow, but it appears that the Iranian authorities are doing serious damage to the communications and presence of the Green opposition and reformists.

One key site of Mir Housein Mousavi's campaign, Ghalam News, was hacked out of existence last month ("Service Unavailable"). It is reported that another, Kalameh Sabz, has been down for more than 10 days. The closure of Etemade Melli newspaper has been followed by the disappearance of its website ("Under Construction"); Seda-ye Edalat fell at the end of July. (The website of the Etemade Melli political party is still up and a key source for information.)

1535 GMT: The Evidence Emerges. Mehdi Karroubi has released the first testimony from an abused detainee from Saham News via his party's website, Etemade Melli, and promised that this is only "a corner of the documentation".

1525 GMT: Press TV features the story that head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani has appointed the former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, as Iran's Prosecutor General, as well as naming Ayatollah Ahmad Mohseni-Gorgani as the head of the Supreme Court.

Nothing surprising there --- we reported Mohseni-Ejeie's appointment many days ago. What is significant is that Press TV is obviously repeating the news to give the President a poke in the eye. On no less than four occasions in a short article (three times in the text; once in the caption), the website stresses, "The appointment comes as earlier last month President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sacked his intelligence minister Mohseni-Ejei after he objected to the president's first deputy pick."

1450 GMT: Rumours have been flying for the last 36 hours that one of the defendants in tomorrow's fourth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be prominent politician Saeed Hajjarian. That has now expanded to the claim that Hajarian and reformist political heavyweights , Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Mirdamadi will be making "confessions" on television on Tuesday night.

1400 GMT: Journalist Mahsa Amirabadi has been released after more than two months in detention. Her husband Masoud Bastani is still in Evin Prison.

1315 GMT: Slow politics day so far, but one story has been developing. The former First Vice President and current (but suspended for legal reasons) Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has given an extended interview to Islamic Republic News Agency, declaring that the Presidential election was a "referendum" on the Government.

Rahim-Mashai's lengthy version of how the election developed, however, is important for another reason. He asserts that Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to use events to curb the authority of the Supreme Leader. In the context of current events, this may be seen as a clear signal that the Ahmadinejad camp is trying to prevent any rapprochement between Ayatollah Khamenei and the former President, or as we frame it, an anti-Ahmadinejad compromise.

0915 GMT: A Green Media and Organisation. Seyed Mohammad Maraashi, writing on the website of the Mir Hossein Mousavi campaign, declares:
The continuation of this movement is tied to the creation of a cohesive organization with its own definite means of communication. The establishment of a closely knit organization depends primarily on setting up a newspaper or a television and radio network. That will allow the movement’s supporters to receive the news from trustworthy sources. This initiative will also prevent the irresponsible distribution of rumors....

But the creation of an official newspaper, radio or television network is only one of the considerable tasks of the movement. Another momentous task is the establishment of an organization. Every organization must focus on a particular objective, and this objective can be realized if we devise and preserve this organization’s structure through constant education and activity....

We should not forget that the current condition is the condition of a coup d’état, and we should be prepared to go to jail, or even to die, for our political activities.

0700 GMT: Watching Hashemi. Maryam at Keeping the Change offers a challenging evaluation of Rafsanjani's role and strategy, set in the context of his 30 years at the forefront of Iranian politics and his 17 July address at Friday prayers in Tehran:
In the first half of his speech, Rafsanjani emphasized the importance of unity to resolving the post-election crisis, a theme he discussed primarily through citations to the Quran....Rafsanjani's [Saturday] comments to the Expediency Council reinforce this view.... [It was] another...example of Rafsanjani's desire to strike a middle ground, though one which superficially favored the Establishment in the short term.

It's a persuasive argument as far as it goes, but it leaves an important question. Is it possible to find unity in the current crisis?

0545 GMT: Late last night, after a day trying to interpret where exactly Hashemi Rafsanjani stood in the post-election conflict between and amidst the President, the Supreme Leader, conservative and principlist groups, and the Green opposition, one reader wrote, "This really is the most incredible four-dimensional chess game."

In a new day in that game, the players are on a break. However, there is one move, from a high-ranking reformist member of Parliament: "The First Vice-Speaker of Iran's Parliament, Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, told reporters on Sunday that it was 'likely' that the Parliament (Majlis) would reject about five of the introduced nominees."

Aboutourabi-Fard made the same statement last week, as did Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, the second Vice-Speaker. The question, of course, is whether other MPs share their scepticism.
Sunday
Aug232009

The Latest from Iran (23 August): Is Rafsanjani in An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

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The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan?

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RAFSANJANI2AHMADINEJAD3

1940 GMT: A slow few hours but there is a story that is threatening to take off.

We reported on Friday, via Norooz that "on both 12 July and 15 July, the bodies of tens of protestors were brought in without any identification, secretly and under strict security [to Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery]. Staff were forced to issue compulsory burial licences, and the bodies were interred in Section 302."

A pro-Ahmadinejad member of Parliament has denied the allegation, so Norooz has published the burial permit numbers to encourage MPs who want to investigate the story.

1525 GMT: Twitter reports that blogger Somayeh Tohidlu has been released from detention after more than two months.

1510 GMT: Mr Smith Begs to Differ. Earlier this week, three of our EA correspondents, assisted by our readers, had an important debate on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani was still an important force in post-elections manoeuvres (Part 1 and Part 2). The events of the last 24 hours bear out the significance of that discussion.

One of the correspondents, Mr Smith, now intervenes on my assessment (1200 GMT), both of Rafsanjani's challenge to the system and on President Ahmadinejad's position:
The widespread belief that the Kargozaran party is representing Rafsanjani's political vision (0700 GMT and 1240 GMT) needs further scrutiny. While it is true that it has always been an association of technocrats closely linked to Rafsanjani, it has never been a mouthpiece for Rafsanjani himself, and It has been subject to multiple internal schisms and divisions. Most recently, Gholamhosein Karbaschi and another leader, Mohammad Ali Najafi, sided with Karroubi in the elections while the rest of the leadership went for Mousavi. This explains why the party has now backed Karroubi, but the labelling "Rafsanjani's party" is a bit too far-fetched.

As for my own reading of Rafsanjani's statement at the Expediency Council, while it is true that it represents once again the essence of what he said at Friday prayers on July 17, I feel that it is a bit thin on real criticism to Ahmadinejadm and the news agencies did not do bad in highlighting the remarks pertaining to Khamenei. Karroubi and Mousavi need a slight tilt of Rafsanjani in their favour now more than ever, and he really risks being confined to rhetorical and mild criticisms of Ahmadinejad if he remains unable to impress some sort of change in direction to the current overhaul of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and other pro-Ahmadinjead parties on government.

On this regard,the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Majlis [Parliament], Alaeddin Borujerdi, has stated that his commission has no objection to Heydar Moslehi [Intelligence], Ahmad Vahidi [Defense] or Manouchehr Mottaki [Foreign Affairs], and is only perturbed by Mostafa Mohammad Najjar at Interior. Borujerdi revealingly let out that Moslehi has "adequate experience in the IRGC Intelligence Division".

Rooz Online has information on the new Intelligence Ministry actively blocking the release of bailed political prisoners in Evin, an ominous sign of things to come.

1445 GMT: Parleman News reports that President Ahmadinejad's Ministerial choices will come up for votes of confidence in Parliament next Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

1340 GMT: More on the Kargozaran Party statement, which may or may not reflect the views of Hashemi Rafsanjani (see 0700 GMT): Friday prayers has become a "tool for issuing threats".

1335 GMT: Assessment or Wish Fulfillment? Kayhan, the "conservative" newspaper, is claiming that, with his statement yesterday, Rafsanjani has taken himself out of the political arena, ruling out any opposition bloc with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1225 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has ordered MPs to receive the evidence of Mehdi Karroubi on abuse of detainees.

1200 GMT: We Don't Want to Say We Told You So But....

Hashemi Rafsanjani's website has posted a summary of the former President's speech to the Expediency Council, and it bears out our interpretation that Rafsanjani has not backed away from a challenge to President Ahmadinejad. Here's the text, as translated by the Neo-Resistance blog:
In presence of the majority of the members, the head of the Expediency Council, again reiterated that the passage through current problems becomes possible by shift from sensationalism into rationalism and emphasized that the media and different tribunes should prove their loyalty to the Supreme Leader's vision of unity in practice.

....At the beginning of the meeting, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani congratulated the start of the holy month of Ramadan, month of feasting with divinity, month of spiritual self reflection and social justice; and expressed hope that in the spiritual light of this divine month should lead to strengthening unity and conciliation. He pointed out the necessity of increased compassion and unity of the officials with the people, to enable passage of the country through its internal and foreign problems and stressed: "Acting with wisdom, principle and due diligence will make this into an attainable and practical objective."

Hashemi Rafsanjani stated that it was essential to respect the Leader's orders and guidance, creating appropriate situations to abide by the constitution beyond group interests, opposing deviation from the law and confronting the law-breakers from either side, replacing the emotional atmosphere with a rational one, and creating an environment for free criticism, reasoning and providing legal and reasonable responses to fair criticism in the current situation. He added, "If these conditions are met, then the impact of the foreign media which is often tainted by colonial intentions will diminish and attention to local news sources will increase and the confrontations on the surface of the society and between different factions will move to media and internal news sources."

In conclusion, the head of the Expediency Council emphasized that the guidelines of the Supreme Leader with respect to recent arrests, compensation for those whose rights have been violated, and punishment of the outlaws open a way through current problems and said: "All, in any position, must abide by these [principles] and those with tribunes, influence, and media have to avoid divisionism, labelling, and controversy and help unity and reconciliation of the society.

Rafsanjani expressed hope that the independent and elite members of the Expediency Council will be the first to walk in this path.

0700 GMT: With the day starting quietly, we have space to pick up on the significant development from yesterday. Contrary to some initial nervous reactions, the politician under pressure is not former President Hashemi Rafsanjani but (as has been the case for weeks) current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Understandably, given there were limited political activity on the first day of Ramadan, Rafsanjani's statement as he chaired the Expediency Council received immediate and intense attention. The problem is that the immediate and intense reaction, even from skilled analysts at places like the National Iranian American Council, was knee-jerk and misguided, picking up only on Rafsanjani's call for all to unite behind the Supreme Leader.

The former President has never called, before or after the election, for defiance of Ayatollah Khamenei or an overturn of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority), and it would be political folly for him to do so now. So of course he is not joining the calls of some senior clerics to consider the invocation of Law 111 against the Supreme Leader's fitness to rule. Indeed, no leading opposition politician --- Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami --- is joining that call.

The political challenge instead is to President Ahmadinejad and the institutions that he and his allies are trying to control. The rest of Rafsanjani's statement buttressed that challenge, albeit in general terms, with its call for justice, adherence by officials to the Constitution, and guidelines for proper conduct in cases such as detentions. As we noted yesterday, that is not far off Mehdi Karroubi's position; the difference is that Karroubi has been high-profile with his specific call, embodied in his 29 July letter to Rafsanjani, for investigation of the abuses of detainees.

Then the Karzogaran Party, which some have identified as "Rafsanjani's party":
Karroubi’s bravery, courage, and his compassionate approach in rooting out the current corruption in the country’s security and judicial apparatuses, is not only worthy of attention and congratulations, but has brought about an invasion of repeated attacks by various people and groups in the name of ‘defending the system’. These behaviors serve as evidence of the ridiculousness of trying to combat reality.

The National Iranian American Council revised its position: Rafsanjani was no longer giving way to the Supreme Leader but was maintaining his challenge to the regime.

Rafsanjani's next substantive step remains to be seen. It is one thing to make a general statement; another to lead or support direct action to undermine or force changes in Government institutions. (That is the real significance of Karroubi's attempt, with his letter, to get Rafsanjani on-side with the inquiry into detainee abuse, with Rafsanjani's initial inaction, and with his subsequent step of sending the letter to both the head of judiciary and the Speaker of Parliament.)

There is more to this story, however, than Rafsanjani. The other signals continue to show an alignment of forces --- "conservative", "principlist", and "reformist" --- pressing against the President. In that context, the shift of the "conservative" newspaper Jomhoori Eslami, is notable, as it stated, "The abuse of detainees is undeniable," and ridiculing the Government's pretext of a foreign-inspired velvet revolution as a "fairy tale".

Coincidentally, Maryam from the excellent Keeping the Change sent us her analysis, which we've posted in a separate entry.
Monday
Aug172009

The Latest from Iran (17 August): Waiting for the Next Manoeuvre

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KARROUBI2

2105 GMT: Jomhoori Eslami has published a statement from 120 physicians and faculty members. After condemning the harsh and savage treatment of protesters, they assert, "It is imperative that, when the credentials of individuals aspiring to high office is being reviewed, their mental health should also be reviewed by a knowledgeable committee that the people can trust".

2100 GMT: Amir Mohsen Mohammadi, student and human rights activist, has been released from detention on $150,000 bail. Mohammadi had been detained since 14 June.

1945 GMT: Our Top Tribute to Journalism. Earlier today (0930 GMT) we awarded the Gold Medal for Dumbest Western Image for #IranElection to Time magazine's "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?"

Who, you may ask, was the previous winner? Reza Sayah of CNN for his profile of Zahra Rahnavard, Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, "a woman some [i.e., Reza Sayah of CNN] are calling Iran's Michelle Obama".

1920 GMT: The sharp-eyed Josh Shahryar noted that, in its report on Sunday's third Tehran trial, Press TV's website referred to "Iran's disputed Presidential vote", the first time that the qualifier "disputed" had appeared in state media. So today's brief item on clashes outside the offices of Etemade Melli further raised an eyebrow: "All gatherings have been banned in a crackdown on mass protests that erupted after the disputed election of 12 June.

1840 GMT: 48 Hours to Go. Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is getting warning signals about those Cabinet choices. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the Chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, has said, “The Majlis [Parliament] expects the president to select ministers carefully.” Deputy Speaker Mohammad-Reza Bahonar gave Ahmadinejad a wrist-slap for Sunday's televised announcement of six proposed ministers, presented without any information to Parliament, “This time the president introduced some of the nominees directly through media which is unprecedented."

1830 GMT: As President Ahmadinejad prepares to propose his Cabinet, the Supreme Leader is moving his own pieces on the political chessboard. He has appointed Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, who just stepped down as head of Iran's judiciary, to both the Expediency Council and the Guardian Council.

1715 GMT: The spokesman of Mehdi Karroubi's party Etemade Melli has told Saham News that judicial officials will meet tomorrow with the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper to discuss outstanding issues. The spokesman stated that there is a high probability that, after the conclusion of this meeting, Etemade Melli will resume publication.

1650 GMT: Peykairan reports that 15 people were arrested, two women beaten, and a bus attacked in clashes in 7 Tir Square.

1605 GMT: Read This Signal. Press TV English highlights Hashemi Rafsanjani's speech at the inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani today:
"In case of delivering fair verdicts, the society will have a sense of security and no one will feel helpless in asserting his violated rights," said the head of the Assembly of Experts.

Hashemi-Rafsanjani warned that if the nation feels troubled by the judicial treatment of detainees "the society will descent into chaos."

That would have been hard enough for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to hear (except, according to some reports, he walked out before the end of the speech). But how about this? Press TV, a state media outlet, headlines the account to pin the blame on the Government: "In Iran, Rafsanjani links 'Unjust' Verdicts to Chaos."

1500 GMT: Very reliable sources have confirmed to EA that the suspension of Etemade Melli "until further notice", reported by Iranian Students News Agency earlier today, is true. The communique from the Culture Ministry rescinds the publishing licence of Etemade Melli due to its "repeated publication" of "illegal" articles that have produced "many complaints".

1344 GMT: Associated Press, from Iranian state television, is reporting the following statement from Mohammad Sadegh Larijani at his inauguration ceremony as head of Iran's judiciary: "Nobody should dare ... to violate rights or security of citizens. I announce that I will not forgive anybody in this regard and violators will be put on trial."

1340 GMT: Reliable Twitter source says journalist Kaveh Mozaffari will be released from detention today. Mozaffari was arrested on 9 July, the day of the 18 Tir demonstrations.

1325 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz claims that, despite the initial ban on its publication (later denied by Tehran's chief prosecutor, who said that it was just "printing problems"), Etemade Melli newspaper did appear today.

1320 GMT: Reuters reports, "Up to 60 opposition supporters chanted 'Death to the Dictator' Monday near the building of a reformist newspaper....Police at the scene in downtown Tehran prevented the demonstrators from gathering in front of the offices of the Etemad-e Melli newspaper of leading reformist Mehdi Karoubi, the witness said."

1310 GMT: Twitter filled with unconfirmed reports of clashes in front of offices of Etemade Melli, with Basiji militia allegedly attacking demonstrators. Other reports that protestors are moving towards 7 Tir Square.

1220 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the video of the encounter between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hashemi Rafsanjani at today's inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary. An EA correspondent comments, "Have to say that Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad warmth is slightly unnerving."

1130 GMT: A Very Interesting Development. According to the Iranian Labour News Agency, Hashemi Rafsanjani is taking part in the inauguration ceremony for Sadegh Larijani. Other people attending are President Ahmadinejad, former Revolutionary Guard chief Rahim Safavi, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, Speaker of Palriament Ali Larijani, Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, and Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Khadkhodai.

One EA correspondent asks, "Is Rafsanjani breaking ranks? He surely looks like fish out of the water in this midst." Or is Rafsanjani trying to build up his political base by showing that, amidst the tensions and conflicts with the President, he can still work with other Establishment figures. Or, to put the issue narrowly, is Sadegh Larijani's appointment so important for Rafsanjani that his public support outweighs his association with those he might consider as political enemies?

1045 GMT: A very slow news morning, punctuated only by this Twitter chatter: "Sea of Green will gather 4pm TODAY (Mordad 26/August 17) Karimkhan St". Etemade Melli party website, connected with Mehdi Karroubi, continues to feature headline that gathering for today in front of Etemade Melli newspaper has been called off.

0930 GMT: Possibly the Dumbest Headline of This Crisis. Congratulations, Time magazine: "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?" This attempt to give the Larijani brothers a "Western" makeover continues in the opening paragraph:
The brothers Larijani — often referred to as the Kennedys of Iran — are emerging as a powerful counterweight to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from within the conservative camp. And unlike other Ahmadinejad rivals, the Larijanis are fully endorsed by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei.

Several problems with that political "analysis" spring to mind. Even a passing look at our analyses over the last week of the manoeuvres within the Iranian establishment --- Parliament, the judiciary, the Ministry of Intelligence, the Supreme Leader, the President, the Revolutionary Guard, the clerics of Qom --- should offer a complex situation that goes beyond Larijanis in the Blue Corner, with the Supreme Leader as their towelman, and Mahmoud in the Red Corner.

For now, however, we ask readers, especially in Iran: do you know of any reference inside the country to the Larijanis as "the Kennedys"?

0715 GMT: Might as well begin today's updates with a chuckle. The chief prosecutor of Tehran, Saeed Mortazavi, has denied that last night's closure of the Etemade Melli newspaper, associated with Mehdi Karroubi (pictured), was because of a Government order: "Etemade Melli has not been shut down....[The paper] was not distributed on Monday following problems in its printing-office."

According to Mehdi Karroubi's son, Hossein, the paper was ordered to halt its presses after publishing a letter from Mehdi Karroubi responding to "insults" against him over his allegations of abuse of detainees.

0710 GMT:  A quiet start to the morning so we've posted an analysis which we hope will be both informative and provocative, "Question for the 'Green Path of Hope' and for the Government".
Friday
Aug142009

Text: Latest Karroubi Statement on Detainees, Rafsanjani, and Larijani (13 August)

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?
Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees

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KARROUBI2The saga of Mehdi Karroubi's letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani on detainees moves on. We've analysed the political significance, after Hashemi Rafsanjani pressed the Iranian judiciary for action, in a separate post. In an interview with Saham News, Karroubi spoke about the letter and Rafsanjani's response:

Those [critics of my letters and their allegations] who are making the atmosphere of society tense should instead try to provide a safe and calm space [for those who are abused] and try to put together an independent delegation of individuals to investigate these abuses. The delegation should be comprised of individuals whom the abused prisoners can trust so that they can relate to the delegation how they have been treated. The abused prisoners must be convinced that the members of this delegation will defend their rights to the end.

I had many reasons to write to Mr. Rafsanjani: First, he has close contact with the Supreme Leader and therefore I am sure that he will convey these problems to the Supreme Leader. Secondly, Mr. Rafsanjani himself has criticised the recent events and at the Friday prayers he stated his complaints and even asked for the freedom of the detainees. Thirdly, I have already written to the Minister of Information and the head of the judiciary and [their behavior] led me to write to [Rafsanjani], who is both the head of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts. Fourthly, I have known Mr Rafsanjani since the conception and gestation of the Islamic Revolution and I have continuously befriended him and worked both before and after the revolution.

I have the right to write to him. this has nothing to do with our personal differences, because I believe, regardless of our personal differences, that Mr. Rafsanjani occupies an immensely respectable and special position and therefore he may be able to do something. These gentlemen who are currently defaming and verbally abusing Mr. Rafsanjani must have forgotten that he was one of the closest friends of Imam [Khomeini]....

When I sent the letter, due to the horrific scale [of abuse] I expected him [Rafsanjani] to respond promptly; however, it took more than 10 days for Mr. Rafsanjani to respond. I am not saying this to complain, I just assumed that either he was not willing to answer my letter or that due to the current situation in society and his own personal considerations he decided not to involve himself in this mess. Therefore as a response to the torrent of alarming news that I was continuously receiving, I decided to make this letter public.

Of course I later understood that Mr. Rafsanjani had referred the letter to Mr. Shahroudi and he had ordered him to act upon my letter. Mr. Rafsanjani has also asked the head prosecutor, Mr. Dorri-Najafabadi, to contact me and state that he will send me [Karroubi] individuals to obtain my opinions and reflect them to the relevant officials....

When this letter was published many different reactions occurred. Some people welcomed this letter, because they said that this letter provided an atmosphere for those who had issues to say [regarding this abuse] to come forward....Of course there were also those who were incensed by this letter, and these individuals tried to create an atmosphere so that no one would dare to refer to these atrocities. An atmosphere in which no one dares to protest if people's children are killed or prisoners are insulted or the families of the prisoners are threatened and beaten up in front of the prison, people's homes are invaded, and their possesions damaged. Why instead of making such a horrendously terrifying atmosphere that oppresively silences the people, do you do not create a space in which people who have complaints have the opportunity to air their greivances in a free and safe atmosphere?

Will it not have been better if some of you instead of using profanity would have studied the main issue? Instead you are claiming that my letter is a pack of lies without even forming a committee to investigate these allegations....I am ashamed to bring up such instances of abuse."

....Although I have a great deal of respect towards Mr. Larijani, the head of parliament...and towards Mr. Boroujerdi, the head of the National Security Commission of Parliament, I must point out to these gentlemen that before they deny and dismiss the contents of my letter in haste they should have at least contacted me or asked me to provide witnesses. Maybe I could have provided some information that you do not have. How can you state that what I have written is pure fabrication without even setting up an investigation?...In a situation where even the head of parliament...is willing to label an issue as a falsehood without even researching and investigating it, how can individuals dare bring up these issues?

....It is 20 years that I, an insignificant member of the establishment, have tried to defend the civic and legal rights of the people and I assert that these defamation tactics will not deflect me from the pathway that I believe in.
Monday
Aug102009

UPDATED More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday's Prayers?

The Latest from Iran (9 August): Once More on Trial

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RAFSANJANIUPDATE 10 August, 1740 GMT: OK, EA staff and some well-informed colleagues have put heads together while we wait for some confirmation, any confirmation, from Hashemi Rafsanjani's website.

There is a significant difference between the statement of Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the Friday prayers committee, and the alleged statement from Rafsanjani's office. Taghavi's statement indicated that the cancellation was necessary to prevent the "political exploitation" by the opposition of the event. The supposed statement from Rafsanjani said the former President was withdrawing to avoid "likely disturbances". So Rafsanjani, if the statement is true, has put the burden of blame on the security forces, indicating their past attitudes towards protest and demonstration has prevented his appearance.

Still, we have to put our hands up for the moment: is the statement true?

UPDATE 10 August, 1645 GMT: Etemade Melli, the newspaper affiliated with Mehdi Karroubi, has jumped in, considering the statement from the Friday prayers committee: "It seems that such a decision [Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran] has been made because of concerns that the last blatant display of popular support that greeted Rafsanjani last time will be repeated. The question remains that was this decision made [by the committee] due to governmental pressure or that Rafsanjani himself decided to not lead the prayers".


UPDATE 10 August, 1520 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency's report, claiming a statement from Rafsanjani’s office, that the former President will not lead Friday prayers is being cited as fact by international news outlets. BBC Persian is reporting, without referring to ILNA, that Rafsanjavi has stepped aside. CNN is even more blatant (and thus far from completely accurate): "A powerful former president of Iran who has become a critic of the regime will not lead Friday prayers this week, despite earlier reports that he would, his office said Monday."

However, ILNA’s article is curiously close to the line set out by the head of the Friday prayers, Seyed Reza Taghavi (1120 GMT), and there is no statement on Rafsanjani’s website.

It is also worth remembering that, before Rafsanjani led prayers on 17 July, there were false reports on state media that he had withdrawn.

Interpretation for the moment? Until there is confirmation from Rafsanjani’s own people, this should be treated as an attempt either to bump the former President into stepping down or to mislead people that he will not be appearing.

UPDATE 10 August, 1320 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency is claiming that Rafsanjani's office has issued a statement saying the former President will not lead Friday prayers this week. for "the prevention of political conflict."


UPDATE 10 August, 1130 GMT: Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the commitee for Friday prayers committee, has said Hashemi  Rafsanjani will not lead this Friday’s service in Tehran “to prevent political manipulation”.

There has been a bit of a drama regarding Rafsanjani's Friday prayers.

Stage 1, Thursday: Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the committee responsible for Friday prayers, states, “It iThe presence of Ayatollah Hashemi is not yet clear and depends upon his health and the queue before him.”


Stage 2, Saturday: Reformist media and a Rafsanjani website state that Rafsanjani is leading the prayers.

Stage 3, Sunday morning: The website removes the statement, a development jubilantly reported by the conservative press.

Stage4,Sunday latest: The website issues a statement explaining why the statement was removed: "

The head of the Expediency Council [Rafsanjani] is extremely committed to stability and the golden mean and finds any deviation from this line and any hint of radicalism to be absolutely unacceptable....

The news regarding Ayatollah Rafsanjani's leadership next Friday is absolutely correct. However, it was removed from on the site out of respect for the committee responsible for Friday Prayers in order to eliminate any hint of encroachment upon the committee's powers and rights....Hopefully [this behavior] will provide the necessary edification for current previous and future generations of the revolution.