The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match

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2110 GMT: In addition to providing the first set of his evidence of detainee abuse to Parliament, Mehdi Karroubi has responded to criticism from a conservative MP, Ahmad Tavakoli, that the revelations were against Karroubi's revolutionary background and would have bad consequences. Karroubi said that it was not right to sacrifice "our religion, dignity and bravery for the benefit of ourselves" and that the regime's is to no one's benefits.

2100 GMT: Returning to the comments of former 1st Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1315 GMT), more to raise a smile than to offer any analysis. Rahim-Mashai said that the election had demonstrated President Ahmadinejad's historic and extraordinary popularity in the world, a popularity unique before and after the Islamic Revolution. He added that, had it not been for the “challenges” that the Ahmadinejad Administration created in the world, Iran would not be as successful as it is today. (Press TV has a summary in English.)

1945 GMT: The Los Angeles Times blog "Babylon & Beyond" has summarised the first testimony of detainee abuse produced by Mehdi Karroui (see 1535 and 1930 GMT):

Iranian officials interviewed an alleged victim of jailhouse rape at the hands of security personnel. But instead of consoling him, they asked him embarrassing questions and blamed him for the violence.

They said it was the young man's own fault for protesting the results of Iran's June 12 presidential elections, according to a fresh account of the alleged rape published on the website of a prominent reformist politician.

"I asked them why I and others were raped in prison," the young man says he asked two interrogators and a judge who had agreed to hear his story....

One of the three replied, "'When the supreme leader confirmed the election result, everyone should have recognized it."

1940 GMT: For What It's Worth. Press TV, citing Ayandeh newspaper, reports that the managing director of the Behehst-e-Zahra cemetery has denied the secret burial of post-election casualties. Norooz claimed earlier this week, from information provided by a cemetery employee, that security forces had forced staff to inter 40 bodies.

1930 GMT: Tabnak reports that Kazam Jalali of the Parliament National Security Committee has met with Mehdi Karroubi to discuss Karroubi's initial presentation of evidence on the sexual abuse of detainees (see 1535 GMT). The Los Angeles Times offers an English summary quoting Jalali, “Karoubi agreed to introduce four persons, who have met him personally and claimed that they were tortured and raped in prison, to Parliament. Karoubi told us these four persons are ready to provide their testimonies that they were sexually abused, but they do not feel secure.”

1600 GMT: Cyber-Wars. We will probably run a feature tomorrow, but it appears that the Iranian authorities are doing serious damage to the communications and presence of the Green opposition and reformists.

One key site of Mir Housein Mousavi's campaign, Ghalam News, was hacked out of existence last month ("Service Unavailable"). It is reported that another, Kalameh Sabz, has been down for more than 10 days. The closure of Etemade Melli newspaper has been followed by the disappearance of its website ("Under Construction"); Seda-ye Edalat fell at the end of July. (The website of the Etemade Melli political party is still up and a key source for information.)

1535 GMT: The Evidence Emerges. Mehdi Karroubi has released the first testimony from an abused detainee from Saham News via his party's website, Etemade Melli, and promised that this is only "a corner of the documentation".

1525 GMT: Press TV features the story that head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani has appointed the former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, as Iran's Prosecutor General, as well as naming Ayatollah Ahmad Mohseni-Gorgani as the head of the Supreme Court.

Nothing surprising there --- we reported Mohseni-Ejeie's appointment many days ago. What is significant is that Press TV is obviously repeating the news to give the President a poke in the eye. On no less than four occasions in a short article (three times in the text; once in the caption), the website stresses, "The appointment comes as earlier last month President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sacked his intelligence minister Mohseni-Ejei after he objected to the president's first deputy pick."

1450 GMT: Rumours have been flying for the last 36 hours that one of the defendants in tomorrow's fourth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be prominent politician Saeed Hajjarian. That has now expanded to the claim that Hajarian and reformist political heavyweights , Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Mirdamadi will be making "confessions" on television on Tuesday night.

1400 GMT: Journalist Mahsa Amirabadi has been released after more than two months in detention. Her husband Masoud Bastani is still in Evin Prison.

1315 GMT: Slow politics day so far, but one story has been developing. The former First Vice President and current (but suspended for legal reasons) Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has given an extended interview to Islamic Republic News Agency, declaring that the Presidential election was a "referendum" on the Government.

Rahim-Mashai's lengthy version of how the election developed, however, is important for another reason. He asserts that Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to use events to curb the authority of the Supreme Leader. In the context of current events, this may be seen as a clear signal that the Ahmadinejad camp is trying to prevent any rapprochement between Ayatollah Khamenei and the former President, or as we frame it, an anti-Ahmadinejad compromise.

0915 GMT: A Green Media and Organisation. Seyed Mohammad Maraashi, writing on the website of the Mir Hossein Mousavi campaign, declares:

The continuation of this movement is tied to the creation of a cohesive organization with its own definite means of communication. The establishment of a closely knit organization depends primarily on setting up a newspaper or a television and radio network. That will allow the movement’s supporters to receive the news from trustworthy sources. This initiative will also prevent the irresponsible distribution of rumors....

But the creation of an official newspaper, radio or television network is only one of the considerable tasks of the movement. Another momentous task is the establishment of an organization. Every organization must focus on a particular objective, and this objective can be realized if we devise and preserve this organization’s structure through constant education and activity....

We should not forget that the current condition is the condition of a coup d’état, and we should be prepared to go to jail, or even to die, for our political activities.

0700 GMT: Watching Hashemi. Maryam at Keeping the Change offers a challenging evaluation of Rafsanjani's role and strategy, set in the context of his 30 years at the forefront of Iranian politics and his 17 July address at Friday prayers in Tehran:

In the first half of his speech, Rafsanjani emphasized the importance of unity to resolving the post-election crisis, a theme he discussed primarily through citations to the Quran....Rafsanjani's [Saturday] comments to the Expediency Council reinforce this view.... [It was] another...example of Rafsanjani's desire to strike a middle ground, though one which superficially favored the Establishment in the short term.

It's a persuasive argument as far as it goes, but it leaves an important question. Is it possible to find unity in the current crisis?

0545 GMT: Late last night, after a day trying to interpret where exactly Hashemi Rafsanjani stood in the post-election conflict between and amidst the President, the Supreme Leader, conservative and principlist groups, and the Green opposition, one reader wrote, "This really is the most incredible four-dimensional chess game."

In a new day in that game, the players are on a break. However, there is one move, from a high-ranking reformist member of Parliament: "The First Vice-Speaker of Iran's Parliament, Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, told reporters on Sunday that it was 'likely' that the Parliament (Majlis) would reject about five of the introduced nominees."

Aboutourabi-Fard made the same statement last week, as did Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, the second Vice-Speaker. The question, of course, is whether other MPs share their scepticism.

Comments

[Afshin]

Quote from the post of 07:00:

"[It was] another…example of Rafsanjani’s desire to strike a middle ground, though one which superficially favored the Establishment in the short term."

Just this staement alone shows how good a politician Hashemi is compared to for example Khamenei.

One thing the former Supreme Leader Khomeinin was able to do was to be the glue that held these diffrent factions together. infact he even made sure to find balancing powers. He did not give to much room to any group and before his death even made it clear that the Guards should NEVER be allowed to enter politics as that would tip over the balans.

This has clearly been more of a challenge for Khamenei, With Hashemi in his corner he was able to maintain some sort of independancy but that has all changed in the last years.

However Hashemi (rumoured of and most likely) being the main instigator of the current situation and the protests in Iran has managed to keep his status of being the middle man.

While the leader choose sides with killers, murderers and rapests this humble servent of the republic is being the main person who is doing all that is possible to unite the forces and country. A favourite of Iman Khomeini, yes truly he is the protector of the revolution and the defendent of the Islamic Republic, What a nobel, peace country and Islamic Republic loving, most holy Moslim this man must be....!!!!!

Yes indeed Hashemi does his name of perhaps being the smartest of the politician much honour... In the end he might be the one that comes out of this having started it all and having gained the most.

[Afshin]

THE GREATEST DIRECT ATTACK ON KHAMENEI TO DATE.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOGmLjx8-pQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fgreen%2Dhope%2Ehyves%2Enl%2F&feature=player_embedded

This is a attack without Nuances. I think to put thinkgs in perspectief the Bush Shoe thing was like child play compared to this, If anyone has the time a translation in english for everyone to read would be nice.... This goes beyond a normal attack...

[florence Achard]

Maryam says: " While he (Rafsandjani) was undoubtedly responsible for liberalizing the Iranian economy during his 1989-1997 Presidency, his Administration did not bring with it a similar loosening of social restrictions and remains notorious for arresting and detaining countless intellectuals and reformists" (a dirty past, as Afshin said in a previous post). "In his 2005 Presidential bid, Rafsanjani, a candidate for the conservative party, did not run on a campaign of greater social freedom or rights, but rather stuck to his tried and true call for greater economic innovation and freedom."

or The Chinese Model: economic success and no freedom for the citizens: not really exhilarating... Is it what the people who took to the street are fighting for?

It seems to me that you (Scott and Afshin) are too fascinated by the "4-D Chess Match" and forget the fifth dimension: the reaction of grassroots protesters.

[Afshin]

@ florence Achard

Did think of that but for now the Protestors are still more or less symbolised with in the Green Movement. So a reaction of the protestors can be taken up within that 4th element (the Green Movement) This untill they no longer feel alligned to the Green movement but if that was to happen then Mousavi and the green movement would no longer be a player.

I did think of another 5th element which I left out for now, Namely outside influences, US, Israel and a possble attack on Iran

[florence Achard]

Afshin,
Can you tell us if this Ayatollah is an important person and what he blames Khamenei for?

[Afshin]

Well not 100% if this is the same Shirazi, but if so he is from the Shirazi family that has for a few generations delivered GRAND AYATOLLAHS who have been politically involved as well. I dont think this will harm Khamenei in a major way but still the attack does not leave much to imagination. He uses words one does not hear often spoken by a clergy and are very directly at Khamenei. He basically at one point calls "Khamenei a man of no Honour" which in Iran is a big deal... I hope someone has the time to double check the Arabic to Persian Subtitles for accuracy and also take the time to translate to English.

Again dont expect it to have any major influence on the situation in Iran but it is still worth mentioning as I had not expected a grand Ayatollah place an attack so directly towards Khamenei.

On the top left corner I do see something that looks like a SHIR KHORSHID sign (Lion and Sun) which was the symbol on Irans flag before the revolution and is now also used by Monarchs and Mujjahedin-e Khalgh, now this could be a footage from their TV. If the Cleric has any ties with them this would lose any value.

I dont know we have to see if this is anyone of importance, if the translation from Arabic to farsi is 100% genuine and if this then holds any value.

For example if this was said by Grand Ayatollah Sistani then it would have been a big deal by any standards.

[Afshin]

I have done some more investigation and this could be an OLD video, it is said that it could be a video of 2 years old as a result of some Basiji being disrespectfull of one of the Late Shirazi Ayatollahs buried in Ghom, Iran.

[Afshin]

This seems to be Sayed Mujtaba Shirazi, brother of Sayyid Muhammad and Sadiq Shirazi. The Footage could very wel be OLD. It seems he has spoken very badly about Ali Khamenei before. I found footage from 2006 even. So This really is not a big deal. It is being put on alot of blogs and many are hyping it up but the more I look for Info the more it looks to be a storm in a small glass of water.

[florence Achard]

thanks for ell the research and information!

[Afshin]

Rumours have been flying for the last 36 hours that one of the defendants in tomorrow’s fourth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be prominent politician Saeed Hajjarian.

--> I really hope this is just a rumour...

[adriana]

I DONT KNOW. SOMETIMES I FEEL( I HAVE TO WRITE IT IN FINGILISH)
AY KOSHTEH KE-RA KOSHTI TA KOSHTEH SHODI ZAAR
TA BAAZ KOJA KOSHTEH SHAVAD ANKEH TORA KOSHT.
HE IS VERY SICK BUT IT DOSENT MEAN WE FORGOT WHAT THEY HAVE DONE.
I DONT KNOW HOW OLD YOU ARE? BUT I REMEMBER THEIR CRIMES AGAINST THOSE KIDS, TORTURING AND KILLING AND BURY THEM WITH NO SIMPLE HEADSTONE, ONE MASIVE GRAVE, AND FAMILIES WHICH CAN NOT EVEN GO AND PAY RESPECT TO THEIR LOVED ONES. MAY BE THIS IS THE GODS' WAY OF PUNISHMENT,(I DONT BEILIVE IN GOD, BUT STILL FOR THOSE WHO DO) IF WE PUT IT THIS WAY.

[Amy]

re 1945 GMT post:

By saying it's the victim's fault that he was raped, they are saying that he was raped. They aren't denying it.

[Amy]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/world/middleeast/25iran.html" rel="nofollow">Ramadan protests

On Saturday, the first day of Ramadan, dozens of men and women turned up outside the gates of Evin prison in north Tehran to observe iftar, the sunset meal that breaks the daily fast for the holy month of Ramadan. They wanted information about their friends and relatives inside.

On Sunday, the authorities told them no meals were allowed, so the men and women stood before the imposing blue gate with flasks of warm sweet tea and homemade desserts. Then on Monday, more than 150 people showed up, demanding to visit with friends and family inside.