The Latest from Iran (23 August): Is Rafsanjani in An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

NEW The Mousavi Speech to University Professors (23-24 June)
NEW Assessing the Challenge to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei
NEW Government Says, “Overweight? Try Prison”
NEW Video: Protests from Prisons to Football Stadiums (21-22 August)

The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan?

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1940 GMT: A slow few hours but there is a story that is threatening to take off.

We reported on Friday, via Norooz that "on both 12 July and 15 July, the bodies of tens of protestors were brought in without any identification, secretly and under strict security [to Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery]. Staff were forced to issue compulsory burial licences, and the bodies were interred in Section 302."

A pro-Ahmadinejad member of Parliament has denied the allegation, so Norooz has published the burial permit numbers to encourage MPs who want to investigate the story.

1525 GMT: Twitter reports that blogger Somayeh Tohidlu has been released from detention after more than two months.

1510 GMT: Mr Smith Begs to Differ. Earlier this week, three of our EA correspondents, assisted by our readers, had an important debate on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani was still an important force in post-elections manoeuvres (Part 1 and Part 2). The events of the last 24 hours bear out the significance of that discussion.

One of the correspondents, Mr Smith, now intervenes on my assessment (1200 GMT), both of Rafsanjani's challenge to the system and on President Ahmadinejad's position:

The widespread belief that the Kargozaran party is representing Rafsanjani's political vision (0700 GMT and 1240 GMT) needs further scrutiny. While it is true that it has always been an association of technocrats closely linked to Rafsanjani, it has never been a mouthpiece for Rafsanjani himself, and It has been subject to multiple internal schisms and divisions. Most recently, Gholamhosein Karbaschi and another leader, Mohammad Ali Najafi, sided with Karroubi in the elections while the rest of the leadership went for Mousavi. This explains why the party has now backed Karroubi, but the labelling "Rafsanjani's party" is a bit too far-fetched.

As for my own reading of Rafsanjani's statement at the Expediency Council, while it is true that it represents once again the essence of what he said at Friday prayers on July 17, I feel that it is a bit thin on real criticism to Ahmadinejadm and the news agencies did not do bad in highlighting the remarks pertaining to Khamenei. Karroubi and Mousavi need a slight tilt of Rafsanjani in their favour now more than ever, and he really risks being confined to rhetorical and mild criticisms of Ahmadinejad if he remains unable to impress some sort of change in direction to the current overhaul of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and other pro-Ahmadinjead parties on government.

On this regard,the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Majlis [Parliament], Alaeddin Borujerdi, has stated that his commission has no objection to Heydar Moslehi [Intelligence], Ahmad Vahidi [Defense] or Manouchehr Mottaki [Foreign Affairs], and is only perturbed by Mostafa Mohammad Najjar at Interior. Borujerdi revealingly let out that Moslehi has "adequate experience in the IRGC Intelligence Division".

Rooz Online has information on the new Intelligence Ministry actively blocking the release of bailed political prisoners in Evin, an ominous sign of things to come.

1445 GMT: Parleman News reports that President Ahmadinejad's Ministerial choices will come up for votes of confidence in Parliament next Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

1340 GMT: More on the Kargozaran Party statement, which may or may not reflect the views of Hashemi Rafsanjani (see 0700 GMT): Friday prayers has become a "tool for issuing threats".

1335 GMT: Assessment or Wish Fulfillment? Kayhan, the "conservative" newspaper, is claiming that, with his statement yesterday, Rafsanjani has taken himself out of the political arena, ruling out any opposition bloc with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1225 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has ordered MPs to receive the evidence of Mehdi Karroubi on abuse of detainees.

1200 GMT: We Don't Want to Say We Told You So But....

Hashemi Rafsanjani's website has posted a summary of the former President's speech to the Expediency Council, and it bears out our interpretation that Rafsanjani has not backed away from a challenge to President Ahmadinejad. Here's the text, as translated by the Neo-Resistance blog:

In presence of the majority of the members, the head of the Expediency Council, again reiterated that the passage through current problems becomes possible by shift from sensationalism into rationalism and emphasized that the media and different tribunes should prove their loyalty to the Supreme Leader's vision of unity in practice.

....At the beginning of the meeting, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani congratulated the start of the holy month of Ramadan, month of feasting with divinity, month of spiritual self reflection and social justice; and expressed hope that in the spiritual light of this divine month should lead to strengthening unity and conciliation. He pointed out the necessity of increased compassion and unity of the officials with the people, to enable passage of the country through its internal and foreign problems and stressed: "Acting with wisdom, principle and due diligence will make this into an attainable and practical objective."

Hashemi Rafsanjani stated that it was essential to respect the Leader's orders and guidance, creating appropriate situations to abide by the constitution beyond group interests, opposing deviation from the law and confronting the law-breakers from either side, replacing the emotional atmosphere with a rational one, and creating an environment for free criticism, reasoning and providing legal and reasonable responses to fair criticism in the current situation. He added, "If these conditions are met, then the impact of the foreign media which is often tainted by colonial intentions will diminish and attention to local news sources will increase and the confrontations on the surface of the society and between different factions will move to media and internal news sources."

In conclusion, the head of the Expediency Council emphasized that the guidelines of the Supreme Leader with respect to recent arrests, compensation for those whose rights have been violated, and punishment of the outlaws open a way through current problems and said: "All, in any position, must abide by these [principles] and those with tribunes, influence, and media have to avoid divisionism, labelling, and controversy and help unity and reconciliation of the society.

Rafsanjani expressed hope that the independent and elite members of the Expediency Council will be the first to walk in this path.

0700 GMT: With the day starting quietly, we have space to pick up on the significant development from yesterday. Contrary to some initial nervous reactions, the politician under pressure is not former President Hashemi Rafsanjani but (as has been the case for weeks) current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Understandably, given there were limited political activity on the first day of Ramadan, Rafsanjani's statement as he chaired the Expediency Council received immediate and intense attention. The problem is that the immediate and intense reaction, even from skilled analysts at places like the National Iranian American Council, was knee-jerk and misguided, picking up only on Rafsanjani's call for all to unite behind the Supreme Leader.

The former President has never called, before or after the election, for defiance of Ayatollah Khamenei or an overturn of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority), and it would be political folly for him to do so now. So of course he is not joining the calls of some senior clerics to consider the invocation of Law 111 against the Supreme Leader's fitness to rule. Indeed, no leading opposition politician --- Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami --- is joining that call.

The political challenge instead is to President Ahmadinejad and the institutions that he and his allies are trying to control. The rest of Rafsanjani's statement buttressed that challenge, albeit in general terms, with its call for justice, adherence by officials to the Constitution, and guidelines for proper conduct in cases such as detentions. As we noted yesterday, that is not far off Mehdi Karroubi's position; the difference is that Karroubi has been high-profile with his specific call, embodied in his 29 July letter to Rafsanjani, for investigation of the abuses of detainees.

Then the Karzogaran Party, which some have identified as "Rafsanjani's party":

Karroubi’s bravery, courage, and his compassionate approach in rooting out the current corruption in the country’s security and judicial apparatuses, is not only worthy of attention and congratulations, but has brought about an invasion of repeated attacks by various people and groups in the name of ‘defending the system’. These behaviors serve as evidence of the ridiculousness of trying to combat reality.

The National Iranian American Council revised its position: Rafsanjani was no longer giving way to the Supreme Leader but was maintaining his challenge to the regime.

Rafsanjani's next substantive step remains to be seen. It is one thing to make a general statement; another to lead or support direct action to undermine or force changes in Government institutions. (That is the real significance of Karroubi's attempt, with his letter, to get Rafsanjani on-side with the inquiry into detainee abuse, with Rafsanjani's initial inaction, and with his subsequent step of sending the letter to both the head of judiciary and the Speaker of Parliament.)

There is more to this story, however, than Rafsanjani. The other signals continue to show an alignment of forces --- "conservative", "principlist", and "reformist" --- pressing against the President. In that context, the shift of the "conservative" newspaper Jomhoori Eslami, is notable, as it stated, "The abuse of detainees is undeniable," and ridiculing the Government's pretext of a foreign-inspired velvet revolution as a "fairy tale".

Coincidentally, Maryam from the excellent Keeping the Change sent us her analysis, which we've posted in a separate entry.