Friday
Aug142009
Iran: Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees
Friday, August 14, 2009 at 7:03
The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?
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The immediate significance of Mehdi Karroubi's letter, as it passed from Karroubi to Secretary of Parliament Ali Larijani and then, via Hashemi Rafsanjani, to the head of Iran's judiciary was that it kept the detainee issue at the top of the political agenda. But, of course, what lies behind that issue is the extent of the challenge to the Iranian system. And there uncertainty arises.
Foremost among these are the plans of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was supposed to be leading Friday prayers today. I find it extremely difficult to read the former President, whose political moves can be very intricate. So my initial framing of his role yesterday as a "messenger" passing the Karroubi letter to judiciary head Ayatollah Shahroudi --- with its conclusion that Rafsanjani had now been "contained" in this crisis --- was off the mark.
EA colleagues have raised two very different possibilities. The first is that Rafsanjani is having to show great caution because the regime is increasing its pressure on him. Here, the assertion that the former President would have been arrested if he had led Friday prayers is an unhelpful exaggeration. Instead, the hints are that the Government will investigate charges of corruption, beginning with members of Rafsanjani's family. This hint has been around before and after the election, and it resurfaces at times --- such as this week --- when the regime is feeling pressure.
That, however, points to a second explanation. Rafsanjani who is maintaining his challenge to the system but in more subtle ways. His passing of the Karroubi letter to Shahroudi, as we noted in our last updates yesterday, could be seen as a powerful signal that the former President was slapping down the head of the judiciary for the regime's inaction and letting him know that something would now be done. Shahroudi accepted that signal and responded that there would be an investigation of the detainee issue, beginning with examination of Karroubi's allegations.
Shahroudi, however, leaves office tomorrow, to be replaced by Mohammad Sadegh Larijani. Larijani is known as a "hard-liner"; at the same time, he is disliked by President Ahmadinejad's supporters, to the extent that they have tried to block his appointment this week by spreading the story that he told the Supreme Leader of widespread "cheating" in the election.
So another uncertainty can be added: how seriously will the judiciary pursue the Karroubi letter? The same question, when put to the Parliament, got the inconclusive reply of another Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament Ali, that he needed to see more evidence. If the judiciary follows suit, then the next moves in this lengthening chess match are up to Karroubi and Rafsanjani.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
The immediate significance of Mehdi Karroubi's letter, as it passed from Karroubi to Secretary of Parliament Ali Larijani and then, via Hashemi Rafsanjani, to the head of Iran's judiciary was that it kept the detainee issue at the top of the political agenda. But, of course, what lies behind that issue is the extent of the challenge to the Iranian system. And there uncertainty arises.Foremost among these are the plans of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was supposed to be leading Friday prayers today. I find it extremely difficult to read the former President, whose political moves can be very intricate. So my initial framing of his role yesterday as a "messenger" passing the Karroubi letter to judiciary head Ayatollah Shahroudi --- with its conclusion that Rafsanjani had now been "contained" in this crisis --- was off the mark.
EA colleagues have raised two very different possibilities. The first is that Rafsanjani is having to show great caution because the regime is increasing its pressure on him. Here, the assertion that the former President would have been arrested if he had led Friday prayers is an unhelpful exaggeration. Instead, the hints are that the Government will investigate charges of corruption, beginning with members of Rafsanjani's family. This hint has been around before and after the election, and it resurfaces at times --- such as this week --- when the regime is feeling pressure.
That, however, points to a second explanation. Rafsanjani who is maintaining his challenge to the system but in more subtle ways. His passing of the Karroubi letter to Shahroudi, as we noted in our last updates yesterday, could be seen as a powerful signal that the former President was slapping down the head of the judiciary for the regime's inaction and letting him know that something would now be done. Shahroudi accepted that signal and responded that there would be an investigation of the detainee issue, beginning with examination of Karroubi's allegations.
Shahroudi, however, leaves office tomorrow, to be replaced by Mohammad Sadegh Larijani. Larijani is known as a "hard-liner"; at the same time, he is disliked by President Ahmadinejad's supporters, to the extent that they have tried to block his appointment this week by spreading the story that he told the Supreme Leader of widespread "cheating" in the election.
So another uncertainty can be added: how seriously will the judiciary pursue the Karroubi letter? The same question, when put to the Parliament, got the inconclusive reply of another Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament Ali, that he needed to see more evidence. If the judiciary follows suit, then the next moves in this lengthening chess match are up to Karroubi and Rafsanjani.
Reader Comments (2)
"So another uncertainty can be added: how seriously will the judiciary pursue the Karroubi letter?"
Of course I don't know much about politics but the mere fact of asking this question seems to me totally surreal! The letter will be passed from official to official and its claims will be drown in a sea of comments and counter comments until it has lost all significance and the poor Iranians will rot in jail!
I don't believe that the Government dares to investigate charges of corruption, especially after Abbas Palizdar's scandalous revelations at Hamadan's Bu Ali University in 2008: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZb5d6JiQJA
According to Palizdar, member of a judiciary commission and recently freed on bail, more than 50 files against high ranking officials were kept, including 9 high ranking mullahs such as Nateq Nouri, Vaez Tabassi (related to Khamenei), Asgarouladi, Mohammad Yazdi, Emami Kashani, Rafsanjani and Mesbah Yazdi, the "sugar king".
As Ali Schirasi mentions, the critized clerics were keeping their files against Ahmadinejad (as mayor of Ardabil and Tehran) and Mojtaba Khamenei:
http://alischirasi.blogsport.de/analysen/irans-korruption-der-fisch-faengt-vom-kopf-an-zu-stinken/
In any case, talking about corruption would blow up the whole system, especially now that "godlike" Ahmadinejad openly opposed the hardliner's demands to consider their candidates for his cabinet.