Tuesday
Aug252009
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani
Tuesday, August 25, 2009 at 21:18
The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume
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We'll have a full analysis tomorrow after EA staff can consult on today's developments, but I am stunned. Before today, I had said that this trial would be an important signal: if the regime (read Ahmadinejad and Revolutionary Guard --- the Supreme Leader's position in all this is uncertain) had wanted compromise, then this would be a relatively low-profile occasion, having been delayed from last week; if it wanted confrontation, then it would put leading reformists like Saeed Hajjarian in the dock.
So when the regime played its first card today, prosecuting not only Hajjarian but all the leading reformist politicians and associates of former President Khatami, it threw down the challenge: We're Going to Break You.
Then, however, the Ahmadinejad wing of the Government had a surprise. It is now declaring that it is time for Hashemi Rafsanjani to go into his box and, more than a month after the dramatic Friday prayers that challenged the President, be quiet. Frankly, the allegations against Rafsanjani family members were so stunning that I did not trust my translation. But there is no mistake: as one of my EA colleagues predicted in late July, the regime would get at the former President by attacking his family.
Rafsanjani, it appears, wanted to use Ramadan to get some space for his manoeuvres, delaying the Assembly of Experts meeting and making his carefully-worded statement at the Expediency Council on Saturday. That space is now gone: he will have to react to today's events. As will, for that matter, the leaders of the Green movement: for all of Mehdi Karroubi's work in elevating the abuse of detainees issue and Mir Hosssein Mousavi's stumbling but still-present efforts for a Green Path of Hope, they now have to face a regime which wants to stop them through the punishment of the high-profile defendants who were in court today.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
We'll have a full analysis tomorrow after EA staff can consult on today's developments, but I am stunned. Before today, I had said that this trial would be an important signal: if the regime (read Ahmadinejad and Revolutionary Guard --- the Supreme Leader's position in all this is uncertain) had wanted compromise, then this would be a relatively low-profile occasion, having been delayed from last week; if it wanted confrontation, then it would put leading reformists like Saeed Hajjarian in the dock.So when the regime played its first card today, prosecuting not only Hajjarian but all the leading reformist politicians and associates of former President Khatami, it threw down the challenge: We're Going to Break You.
Then, however, the Ahmadinejad wing of the Government had a surprise. It is now declaring that it is time for Hashemi Rafsanjani to go into his box and, more than a month after the dramatic Friday prayers that challenged the President, be quiet. Frankly, the allegations against Rafsanjani family members were so stunning that I did not trust my translation. But there is no mistake: as one of my EA colleagues predicted in late July, the regime would get at the former President by attacking his family.
Rafsanjani, it appears, wanted to use Ramadan to get some space for his manoeuvres, delaying the Assembly of Experts meeting and making his carefully-worded statement at the Expediency Council on Saturday. That space is now gone: he will have to react to today's events. As will, for that matter, the leaders of the Green movement: for all of Mehdi Karroubi's work in elevating the abuse of detainees issue and Mir Hosssein Mousavi's stumbling but still-present efforts for a Green Path of Hope, they now have to face a regime which wants to stop them through the punishment of the high-profile defendants who were in court today.
Reader Comments (11)
I also think Hashemi can't keep quiet any longer. I am really surprised that they are doing all these during Ramadan. They should be ashamed of themselves. There is nothing Islamic about this farce.
[...] to stop them through the punishment of the high-profile defendants who were in court today. The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani | Enduring America Whoa.. things are getting very serious this [...]
They (AN and the Guards) are determined to silence everybody, and why should they refrain from taking advantage of the situation? they're holding the guns, as Whereismyvote and Afshin said, and the people have been demobilized by the green leaders themselves.
I'm not surprised at the threat to Rafsanjani. Instead, I'm surprised the regime has taken so long, and I'm surprised that they have not gone further. Why is the regime unable to arrest opposition leaders? They seems determined to convert Iran into a simple military dictatorship. Why are they doing it in slow motion? Today's news, that the regime has threatened Rafsanjani, reveals its weakness. If the regime could make Rafsanjani disappear, wouldn't they just do it?
[...] by unreg in the Blink thread... just thought it should be here too so ppl don't miss it. The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani | Enduring America [...]
[...] goes on the offensive against reformists, Rafsanjani family Enduring America is stunned: Before today, I had said that this trial would be an important signal: if the regime [...]
[...] The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani From Scortt Lucas at Enduring America "when the regime played its first card today, prosecuting not only Hajjarian but all the leading reformist politicians and associates of former President Khatami, it threw down the challenge: We’re Going to Break You." The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani | Enduring America [...]
Some observations:
1) One of the subjects that generates the most comments on this site is any article or news relating to Rafsanjani. It seems everyone has something to say when the shark is involved.
2) For all those novices reading this forum, Islam has nothing to do with what we have in Iran. Islam is a farse, a veil, a cover used to subjugate and rule. The moto of the revolution was Independence, Freedom, Islamic Republic. We lost our freedom first, and it was blamed on the war. Then we lost our independence to Russia, china and the rest, and it was blamed on the fight with America. Now we have lost the republic. What we have in today is a government moving towards a military dictatorship. The coupe was blocked and so it is now slowed down a little, however the AN / Guards have not changed their objective, they stll plan to do the same thing. They are just tactically changing the plan to get there, on a daily basis. Since the start of the crisis, there has been many many opportunities for compromise offered to the Guards and AN and they all have been rejected.
3) It was always clear that the pendulum would suing again, it seems that the AN / Guards have chosen to attack as the best form of defense.
Ayatollah Sanei states that there are four leaders to this Revolutionary Coup.
Who? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the President, Mohamad Ali Jafari the Revolutionary Guard Commander, Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi the Clerical Leader are easy. The fourth would appear to Ali Hoseyni Khamenei the Supreme Leader, though I would argue that it is Mojtaba Khamenei. He is the inside man in the Supreme Leader's Office.
So, Which one is calling the shots, Mesbah Yazdi or Mojtaba?
Has Mojtaba been doing the adminstrative tasks for his father?
Is Mesbah Yazdi eligible for that office?
@ Thomas:
You are probably right on the AN and Jafari roles. I would put these two at par running the show as to the role of Yazdi, I would say its more of the strategic and philosophical leader of the bunch, although I find it very interesting that he has not burdened more direct attack. This guy and his movement (They prey to Mehdi) was banned by Khomeini as heresy and superstitious movement. The relationship of the S.L and Mojtaba is going to be hard for anyone other than the father / son to decipher, but perhaps it is Mojtaba running the show, and the father as puppet, perhaps the SL is using Mojtaba as an administrative / executive to do the work he can't be seen to do directly himself. I would not read too much to this as Ahmad the son of Khomeini was also seen to be involved in everything, but was quickly pushed aside the day that Khomeini died. Mojtaba will probably fall on the same fate / sword.
Where is my Vote,
Thank you for the reply. Yazdi is an Assembly of Expert member, so I assume he is eligible for the Office of S.L. Maybe he is making a play for the office with the bullets of Jafari. They are both from Yazd. Are their families close? Or just members of this same Mehdi cult with Mahmoud?
I could see them using Mojtaba as an agent in the SL's Office, but Karroubi called him out in 2005 for fixing the election. So is he involved trying to stave off the fate of Ahmad Khomeini to himself? Is he a billionare from bribes or ability to technically run Pasdaran Inc.?
The thing is they have botched this from the beginning, so knowing who is making final decisions could explain why.