Tuesday
Sep082009
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
Tuesday, September 8, 2009 at 9:40
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The headline event yesterday was last night's raid on the offices of a committee, made up of Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, investigating the abuse of detainees. We've got an update in a separate entry.
Yesterday's wider political story, however, was less dramatic as it evolved throughout the afternoon. We're still working through it, but it looks like President Ahmadinejad has once again stirred the pot --- not only versus the opposition but within the regime --- with some over-the-top talk.
Ahmadinejad's press conference yesterday morning was a delayed celebration of his win in getting almost all of his Ministers through Parliament --- it was supposed to be held last week but the delay in confirmations changed the plan. He used it primarily to crow about the election and his vanquishing of the opposition with the "victory of the Iranian nation’s morality against immoralities" and "success in removing contamination from Revolution".
So, instead of taking a calmer tone and talking down confrontation, the President was taking Iranians back to his first victory speech, on the weekend after the election, when he dismissed his opponents as "dust".
But Ahmadinejad once again did not get away with it.
It is one thing for reformists to criticise the President for his words, another for others in the Establishment to take offense. Have another look at yesterday's updates: the Supreme Leader's admonition to the Cabinet to listen to "benevolent criticism" now appears as a direct response to the President: back off the macho chatter and concentrate on governing the country.
Even more important, Ahmadinejad's speech prompted the Society of Militant Clergy to break cover and issue their first post-election statement with the call "to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues". The Society is "conservative", but as it includes members such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, it cannot be considered an unconditional supporter of the Government.
For EA, one of the recurrent themes of the post-election conflict has been that opportunities for compromise, and thus some resolution of the crisis, have been passed up. Ahmadinejad's first victory speech, the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer address of 19 June, the decision to hold the Tehran trials, and the President's recent introduction of Friday Prayers are all examples. Ahmadinejad just added another.
There is a split of opinion here amongst the significance of this tough line. For some at EA, it is a sign of the growing strength of Ahmadinejad, backed by political allies and the Revolutionary Guard, and his skills as a street-fighting politician. For others, including me, it is a high-risk strategy which is trying to cover up his weaknesses.
And, to return to yesterday, here may be the primary weakness, beyond the talk of a new wave of protest and the manoeuvres of Mousavi-Khatami-Karroubi: Ahmadinejad has to govern. But because he is not as comfortable governing (and arguably not as good as governing as he is at issuing challenges and threats), he is always likely to return to the language and image of his triumph in the confrontation of his opponents.
Is that his undoing? Far too dramatic a question and far too soon to tell.
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
The headline event yesterday was last night's raid on the offices of a committee, made up of Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, investigating the abuse of detainees. We've got an update in a separate entry.Yesterday's wider political story, however, was less dramatic as it evolved throughout the afternoon. We're still working through it, but it looks like President Ahmadinejad has once again stirred the pot --- not only versus the opposition but within the regime --- with some over-the-top talk.
Ahmadinejad's press conference yesterday morning was a delayed celebration of his win in getting almost all of his Ministers through Parliament --- it was supposed to be held last week but the delay in confirmations changed the plan. He used it primarily to crow about the election and his vanquishing of the opposition with the "victory of the Iranian nation’s morality against immoralities" and "success in removing contamination from Revolution".
So, instead of taking a calmer tone and talking down confrontation, the President was taking Iranians back to his first victory speech, on the weekend after the election, when he dismissed his opponents as "dust".
But Ahmadinejad once again did not get away with it.
It is one thing for reformists to criticise the President for his words, another for others in the Establishment to take offense. Have another look at yesterday's updates: the Supreme Leader's admonition to the Cabinet to listen to "benevolent criticism" now appears as a direct response to the President: back off the macho chatter and concentrate on governing the country.
Even more important, Ahmadinejad's speech prompted the Society of Militant Clergy to break cover and issue their first post-election statement with the call "to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues". The Society is "conservative", but as it includes members such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, it cannot be considered an unconditional supporter of the Government.
For EA, one of the recurrent themes of the post-election conflict has been that opportunities for compromise, and thus some resolution of the crisis, have been passed up. Ahmadinejad's first victory speech, the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer address of 19 June, the decision to hold the Tehran trials, and the President's recent introduction of Friday Prayers are all examples. Ahmadinejad just added another.
There is a split of opinion here amongst the significance of this tough line. For some at EA, it is a sign of the growing strength of Ahmadinejad, backed by political allies and the Revolutionary Guard, and his skills as a street-fighting politician. For others, including me, it is a high-risk strategy which is trying to cover up his weaknesses.
And, to return to yesterday, here may be the primary weakness, beyond the talk of a new wave of protest and the manoeuvres of Mousavi-Khatami-Karroubi: Ahmadinejad has to govern. But because he is not as comfortable governing (and arguably not as good as governing as he is at issuing challenges and threats), he is always likely to return to the language and image of his triumph in the confrontation of his opponents.
Is that his undoing? Far too dramatic a question and far too soon to tell.
Reader Comments (13)
Very good. thanks.
A Pessimist could argue that the President (Pasdaran) together with the Supreme Leader (Conservatives such as Larrijani's) are playing good cop bad cop with the nation.
The President taking more and more the role of the bad cop with lots of anger and threats every chance he gets and the S.L as the arbitarty figure mending the wounds and bringing the people together and occasionaly putting the president back to his place, killing three birds with one shot.
On the one hand giving people a sence of hope (End of Love affair between S.L and A.N) on the other allowing the S.L to get back to his role of being the ultimate unbiased judge who does not take sides and finally giving people a false sence of victory. If Ahmadinejad pretends to be aiming for 100 but has to settle with 50 because of the resistance of the opponents and the intervention of the S.L (while in reality they were going for 50 to start off with) it can give a false sence of victory.
Without saying this is really the case one can not ignore that the S.L is trying to create (yet failing so far) an image of being unbiased, not taking sides and not being in the A.N corner fully. Which is a very diffrent S.L then we had seen just after the election.
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Afshin;
Interesting possibility. Do you mean SL & AN may have coordinated on a plan, or are the "good cop/bad cop" roles just the byproduct of the way they are playing out their chess match?
I wish President Obama would take a page out of the book that says go for 100% when the goal is 50%. It's a good way to create a win/win situation. Unfortunately in Iran, it all would be win/win for the regime, but the people lose either way. (Obama may be playing a different game that looks like losing when evaluated using the generally expected rules... time will tell on that one.)
yes I mean in a coordinated way.
People tend to be less of a threat and will not sort in desperate measures when there is still a glimpse of hope.
I'm not saying this is the case perse, but if you are a pessimist you could have a case claiming this.... especially since so far except from the GREEN Movement there have been alot of barks yet no real bites from the conservatives so far towards A.N....
This carrot and stick approach is what is happening for some time. Afshin is very right on it. Instead thou it is not so clear cut. The carrot (SL softness) is offered however never attained, yet in response to the carrot the stick is wiped. So the carrot is a virtual carrot, only displayed by the SL, where as the stick is tangible and real and wiped daily.
An example:
The SL in a speech offered compromise and suggested that the leaders of the opposition have just grievances, in response AN raids their offices and arrests many.
Look at the event, the timing of the events and the subsequent conclusions and you see many such examples. This strategy has been ongoing for some time now.
As to whether it is coordinated or not, it must be said that it certainly is well timed and choreographed which means it must be well planned also.
Even the VP incident, and the Larijani brothers conflict with the AN cabinet can be seen within the same light.
The only two players that are not part of this choreographed play are Rafsanjani and the green wave leaders (Karoubi, Mousavi and Khatami)
@ whereismyvote
Absolutly agree on the virtual Carot, Hence my ongoing refrence the last days to alot of barking without actual bites...
To keep the illusion alive I would not be surprised if they throw in an occasional bite or two just to keep us all going.
One could go even further and claim that as long as there is a (Weak powerless) Mousavi, as long as there is Karoubi, as long as they keep a Khatami or even create an illusion that there is bad blood between the SL and AN there is HOPE, and false hope or a little hope is managable, actions predictable, What one really needs to be afraid of is ALOT OF HOPE or NO HOPE AT ALL....
Yes Afshin;
Don't know your age, I am in my early 30's, but this game you have explained to me is what my grandfather explained to me as the way the great game was played between France Britain and Iran (of course Iran was the weak leaders kept alive to keep up hope and illusions) and it seems the Mullahs are now playing it amongst themselves.
"What one really needs to be afraid of is ALOT OF HOPE or NO HOPE AT ALL.."
Isn't this exactly what started the crisis?
After the Tuesday evening election rallies, the coup leaders (Ahmadinejad, Jafarii, Mesbah-Yazdi) panicked , convinced SL his personal rival Mosuvai would win so lets start operation election rig. With so little time to prepare, and after already inviting western journalists to witness the event, they blundered on.
@whereismyvote
30's as well.
Not so much the WIN as 4 years ago they cheated as well, Karoubi was robbed 2 million votes in less them 2 hours or so.
I would say the panic was when they saw the 3 million march in the streets. They were brutal in knocking it down and take away any hope people had. They still have some hope and if they allow mid september protest to be huge again (18 September and the days after) then the hope amongst people may return again, which means trouble. BIG trouble.
Afshin,
Yes, they rigged the vote in 2005 with Karroubi calling out Mojatba Khamenei for it. But there was going to be a landslide due to the apathetic voters from 2005 returning to participate and young first time voters because of the Hope you mentioned.
Once they(Rev Coup Leaders) started down this path there is no turning back for them. But they only brought the revolution 360 degrees as now they represent what Iranians overthrew in 1979.
This is your fight for independence. You all did it before, you will do it again.