Tuesday
Sep082009
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
Tuesday, September 8, 2009 at 9:40
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The headline event yesterday was last night's raid on the offices of a committee, made up of Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, investigating the abuse of detainees. We've got an update in a separate entry.
Yesterday's wider political story, however, was less dramatic as it evolved throughout the afternoon. We're still working through it, but it looks like President Ahmadinejad has once again stirred the pot --- not only versus the opposition but within the regime --- with some over-the-top talk.
Ahmadinejad's press conference yesterday morning was a delayed celebration of his win in getting almost all of his Ministers through Parliament --- it was supposed to be held last week but the delay in confirmations changed the plan. He used it primarily to crow about the election and his vanquishing of the opposition with the "victory of the Iranian nation’s morality against immoralities" and "success in removing contamination from Revolution".
So, instead of taking a calmer tone and talking down confrontation, the President was taking Iranians back to his first victory speech, on the weekend after the election, when he dismissed his opponents as "dust".
But Ahmadinejad once again did not get away with it.
It is one thing for reformists to criticise the President for his words, another for others in the Establishment to take offense. Have another look at yesterday's updates: the Supreme Leader's admonition to the Cabinet to listen to "benevolent criticism" now appears as a direct response to the President: back off the macho chatter and concentrate on governing the country.
Even more important, Ahmadinejad's speech prompted the Society of Militant Clergy to break cover and issue their first post-election statement with the call "to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues". The Society is "conservative", but as it includes members such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, it cannot be considered an unconditional supporter of the Government.
For EA, one of the recurrent themes of the post-election conflict has been that opportunities for compromise, and thus some resolution of the crisis, have been passed up. Ahmadinejad's first victory speech, the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer address of 19 June, the decision to hold the Tehran trials, and the President's recent introduction of Friday Prayers are all examples. Ahmadinejad just added another.
There is a split of opinion here amongst the significance of this tough line. For some at EA, it is a sign of the growing strength of Ahmadinejad, backed by political allies and the Revolutionary Guard, and his skills as a street-fighting politician. For others, including me, it is a high-risk strategy which is trying to cover up his weaknesses.
And, to return to yesterday, here may be the primary weakness, beyond the talk of a new wave of protest and the manoeuvres of Mousavi-Khatami-Karroubi: Ahmadinejad has to govern. But because he is not as comfortable governing (and arguably not as good as governing as he is at issuing challenges and threats), he is always likely to return to the language and image of his triumph in the confrontation of his opponents.
Is that his undoing? Far too dramatic a question and far too soon to tell.
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
The headline event yesterday was last night's raid on the offices of a committee, made up of Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, investigating the abuse of detainees. We've got an update in a separate entry.Yesterday's wider political story, however, was less dramatic as it evolved throughout the afternoon. We're still working through it, but it looks like President Ahmadinejad has once again stirred the pot --- not only versus the opposition but within the regime --- with some over-the-top talk.
Ahmadinejad's press conference yesterday morning was a delayed celebration of his win in getting almost all of his Ministers through Parliament --- it was supposed to be held last week but the delay in confirmations changed the plan. He used it primarily to crow about the election and his vanquishing of the opposition with the "victory of the Iranian nation’s morality against immoralities" and "success in removing contamination from Revolution".
So, instead of taking a calmer tone and talking down confrontation, the President was taking Iranians back to his first victory speech, on the weekend after the election, when he dismissed his opponents as "dust".
But Ahmadinejad once again did not get away with it.
It is one thing for reformists to criticise the President for his words, another for others in the Establishment to take offense. Have another look at yesterday's updates: the Supreme Leader's admonition to the Cabinet to listen to "benevolent criticism" now appears as a direct response to the President: back off the macho chatter and concentrate on governing the country.
Even more important, Ahmadinejad's speech prompted the Society of Militant Clergy to break cover and issue their first post-election statement with the call "to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues". The Society is "conservative", but as it includes members such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, it cannot be considered an unconditional supporter of the Government.
For EA, one of the recurrent themes of the post-election conflict has been that opportunities for compromise, and thus some resolution of the crisis, have been passed up. Ahmadinejad's first victory speech, the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer address of 19 June, the decision to hold the Tehran trials, and the President's recent introduction of Friday Prayers are all examples. Ahmadinejad just added another.
There is a split of opinion here amongst the significance of this tough line. For some at EA, it is a sign of the growing strength of Ahmadinejad, backed by political allies and the Revolutionary Guard, and his skills as a street-fighting politician. For others, including me, it is a high-risk strategy which is trying to cover up his weaknesses.
And, to return to yesterday, here may be the primary weakness, beyond the talk of a new wave of protest and the manoeuvres of Mousavi-Khatami-Karroubi: Ahmadinejad has to govern. But because he is not as comfortable governing (and arguably not as good as governing as he is at issuing challenges and threats), he is always likely to return to the language and image of his triumph in the confrontation of his opponents.
Is that his undoing? Far too dramatic a question and far too soon to tell.