Tuesday
Sep082009
UPDATED Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
Tuesday, September 8, 2009 at 15:15
NOW POSTED: Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
NEW Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
UPDATE 9 September: We've now posted a detailed analysis, considering "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move" and asking whether the President and Revolutionary Guard are challenging not only the Green movement and Hashemi Rafsanjani but also the Supreme Leader.
UPDATE 1945 GMT: The answer to our question is probably "Yes". Just after 1800 GMT, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested. (We held off posting until this was confirmed in a reliable source.) The only step up from this action is the arrest of leaders such as Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
UPDATE 1600 GMT: Almost all the "news" is rumour and speculation, but one reliably reported development is that Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has said his father has kept copies of seized documents in places other than the raided offices.
And this from Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti on the raid on the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners: "Yesterday, agents had an appointment to come to the office and supposedly ask questions on various issues. But when they got here, they presented a warrant and confiscated equipment, documents, and a laptop computer.
Today was already one of the busiest in weeks, but events in the last three hours have the head spinning. For me, this is the most dramatic political challenge since the "40th Day" memorial on 30 July, and we could be in the midst of the biggest political showdown since the 12 June election.
Three hours ago, I was preparing to write an analysis on an apparent move for compromise between the Supreme Leader, key figures like Ali Larijani, top Parliamentarians, and possibly Hashemi Rafsanjani. This would have offered limited investigations of detainee abuse, a curbing of trials, and possibly the release of top reformist prisoners at the end of Ramadan.
The raid on Mehdi Karroubi's offices this afternoon, following yesterday's on committee offices run by Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, change that equation. Somebody very important has decided enough is enough with the pressure for enquiries into post-election Government activities, even if those enquiries were going to be defined tightly enough to limit the pressure on the system.
1) Is this the other half of the "compromise" put forth above, ensuring that the investigations are controlled by Government agencies like the judiciary and preventing a drip-drip-drip of allegations? If so, then has the Supreme Leader played both sides, offering token concessions to the opposition (and Rafsanjani), while preserving his position and shielding Ahmadinejad from further attacks?
2) Or has Ahmadinejad, who reportedly ordered yesterday's raid on the Mousavi offices, seized the initiative to break the opposition? If so, has do the Larijanis react? And the Supreme Leader?
3) Or is there another element (read Revolutionary Guard) who has taken matters into its hands?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
NEW Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
UPDATE 9 September: We've now posted a detailed analysis, considering "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move" and asking whether the President and Revolutionary Guard are challenging not only the Green movement and Hashemi Rafsanjani but also the Supreme Leader.UPDATE 1945 GMT: The answer to our question is probably "Yes". Just after 1800 GMT, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested. (We held off posting until this was confirmed in a reliable source.) The only step up from this action is the arrest of leaders such as Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
UPDATE 1600 GMT: Almost all the "news" is rumour and speculation, but one reliably reported development is that Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has said his father has kept copies of seized documents in places other than the raided offices.
And this from Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti on the raid on the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners: "Yesterday, agents had an appointment to come to the office and supposedly ask questions on various issues. But when they got here, they presented a warrant and confiscated equipment, documents, and a laptop computer.
Today was already one of the busiest in weeks, but events in the last three hours have the head spinning. For me, this is the most dramatic political challenge since the "40th Day" memorial on 30 July, and we could be in the midst of the biggest political showdown since the 12 June election.
Three hours ago, I was preparing to write an analysis on an apparent move for compromise between the Supreme Leader, key figures like Ali Larijani, top Parliamentarians, and possibly Hashemi Rafsanjani. This would have offered limited investigations of detainee abuse, a curbing of trials, and possibly the release of top reformist prisoners at the end of Ramadan.
The raid on Mehdi Karroubi's offices this afternoon, following yesterday's on committee offices run by Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, change that equation. Somebody very important has decided enough is enough with the pressure for enquiries into post-election Government activities, even if those enquiries were going to be defined tightly enough to limit the pressure on the system.
1) Is this the other half of the "compromise" put forth above, ensuring that the investigations are controlled by Government agencies like the judiciary and preventing a drip-drip-drip of allegations? If so, then has the Supreme Leader played both sides, offering token concessions to the opposition (and Rafsanjani), while preserving his position and shielding Ahmadinejad from further attacks?
2) Or has Ahmadinejad, who reportedly ordered yesterday's raid on the Mousavi offices, seized the initiative to break the opposition? If so, has do the Larijanis react? And the Supreme Leader?
3) Or is there another element (read Revolutionary Guard) who has taken matters into its hands?
Reader Comments (34)
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by FranceM.. FranceM. said: RT @EANewsFeed: Latest on EA: Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown? http://bit.ly/fKeTh #iranelection #iran #gr88 [...]
This is Ahmadinejad and Jafari saying enough is enough. While the judiciary may be powerful it only matters if one obeys the law, which IRGC clearly do not. There is no way IRGC is going to let it's carefully crafted money machine come crashing down all because of protesters and rape. I think that Khamenei might be getting sidelined and if so, his participation is just a religious gloss on what is now a military regime.
My Opinion: For next 17 days - we will most likely see significant actions/reactions as we near Qod's Day and United Nations meeting. If the remaining leaders supporting democracy and the Sea of Green inside the restrictive government don't act now - they will likely miss the best opportunity presented to them in past 30 years. Worse - many more may be injured or die if the window on this opportunity closes - and it Will close. Again - my opinion...It's past time Iran - to protect yourselves, your country and your future...you must set yourselves free.
It is still far too early to sideline Khamanei and also the Pasdaran / AN front far too weak to stand up alone. Legitimization of the AN government is still needed, further the AN / Pasdaran alliance has not rid itself of Rafsanjani yet, and so dumping Khamanei or even considering it is far too premature.
Rather this is the SL offering a carrot, and then pulling it behind his rope while AN / Pasdaran beat the hell out of the opponents with the stick.
When the opposition is all gone, then its only time to rid the system of the SL, but for now he is very useful and a great player.
I'm wondering who wears the pants in the family... While Khamenei is necessary does that mean that he calls the shots? I'm assuming that if he made any moves against Pasdaran his family would disappear along with his money. You might be right though.
Whereismyvote,
You don't think SL knows they (An/Pasdaran) will eventually come for him?
I agree they need to take down Rafsanjani, then Mesbah-Yazdi will gain control of the Assembly of Experts. Succession question is "solved". Checkmate for the Coup on goverment institutions.
It seems to me that Khamenei's appearence at Friday Prayers is simply damage control for the recent events. I might be wrong but this means that the events came first (undoubtedly as a crackdown before a Qods day uprising) and Khamenei's explanations and justifications come second. In which case he was told what to do.
I think people are giving the Regime way too much credit in thinking these raids are part of a coordinated plan. The way I see it, everyone connected to the Regime is just going off half-cocked with their own plans, trying to grab as much as they can for themselves before the Mahdi comes and/or the People throw the bastards out! I think Ahmadinejad ordered the raids without asking anybody else if that would screw up their plans, because Mesbah-Yazdi told him it would speed up the Mahdi's coming. I bet Khamenei & the IRGC are furious, but there's not really a lot they can do to restrain AN. They want to smooth things over and preserve the status quo, but AN wants it to go all the way to full-on chaos, to speed the Mahdi's reappearance. A house divided against itself cannot stand.
I think we shouldn't limit the reasons for these raids to just three possibilities. It could simply be that whoever is pulling the strings of the puppets over at the judiciary wants to showcase their new pet, Dowlatabadi. I think a raid on Karoubi's office as the first official move for Dowlatabadi says something. It could be that Karoubi's "evidence" indeed has proven lethal and they just want to get rid of it asap. This talk of rape and abuse has gone on far too long, they will try their best to finish it up and get it done with, especially now that Ahmadinejad has a new cabinet approve and wants to start on a "clean" slate (his views, not mine).
Remember this is Iran, nothing has a clear answer!
Wow, leave for a few hours & look what happens...
What do you think is the real point of the raids on the offices of Mir Hossein Mousavi (yesterday) & Mehdi Karoubi (today)? AN/Pasdaran know that both would have multiple data backups, including some out of country. Merely confiscating the available records will not interfere with investigations into atrocities. What is the real intent? What is this move supposed to accomplish?
Amy, I don't know if the story of Saeedeh Pouraghayi was covered in enduring america. I have it here:
http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=1347#comments
Ever since this incident, the neighborhoods where my family and friends live in Iran, some of those places where Allah o Akbar was heard the loudest every night, have grown deathly silent. So we shouldn't underestimate the power of fear and the sort of fear actions like this can induce. Not only in the likes of Karoubi, but the victims as well.
Pedestrian
I fear for the victims. Pasdaran now have their names.
I certainly hope that the Karoubi camp was smarter than that. It is plain stupidity if they had classified information in that office - even if they had been given reassurances by higher officials.
Pedestrian
I was trying to edit my #12 comment but couldn't finish so here's the 2ne half of the edited version:
Well, the Pasdaran already had the names because they know who they victimized, but now they know who Mousavi & Karoubi knew about. I hope the names of the rape victims Karoubi worked with have been kept in a secret location. Encryption wouldn't be enough as the Pasdaran probably have experts in that area.
I think we are making assumptions maybe a little to soon and looking for more behind these actions then maybe intended.
My guess is they are just flexing the muscles, showing whos the boss and saying wacht what u do on Sept 18. I'm sure you dont want trouble, consider your selves warned.
I would guess they do a few more of these things. This is just powerplay..
Pedestrian,
Thank you --- we didn't cover the Pouraghayi story because we didn't know of your report. Appreciate you putting up the link.
Best to your family and friends,
S.
Pedestrian
I just read the story of Saeedeh Pouraghayi on your blog. How absolutely heartbreaking and infuriating. It's impossible to fathom. What are they trying to accomplish? What do they think they will have in the end if they accomplish it?
The speculation that the Pasdaran is trying to push aside the SL is completely unfounded and ridiculous. The whole doctrine of Velayat-e faqih is absolutely central to the Pasdaran ideology as well as to Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi. It would be like a devout Roman Catholic arguing for the dissolution of the Papacy.
Amy, when you think of Saeedeh, think of this:
her father fought for 8 years during the war, and died of chemical injuries a few years back. Think of her mother! Having lost her husband and her only child in this way.
Scott, the Saeedeh Pouraghyi story was never publicly declared. It was announced by Bahman Agha and Mowjcamp, two sites I personally know and trust, so that's why I put it up.
Samuel, I don't believe in the pasdaran trying to oust the SL either. But just remember this: trying to portray the guards today as hardcore believers in any ideology, Islam, or the IRI, or ... is unfounded. These guys are certainly more complex than what we give them credit for, but gone are the days of Mohsen Rezaies. Many of these men are just corrupt, albeit complex businessmen.
Pedestrian,
It is the question of succession to the office of the SL. Ali Khamenei the man has cancer, eventually mortality gets to us all. The Assembly of Experts solves this constitutionally, correct? Then this fight in the assembly would be between Rafsanjani and Mesbah-Yazdi. With Rafsanjani out of the way, Mesbah-Yazdi faction would most likely take control.
Thomas, that sounds like one possible scenario. But the assembly has 86 members, you can read about them all on their website:
majlesekhobregan. ir
and I don't know where the members stand on recent issues. Frankly, I don't even know of the extent of the influence of Hojjatiyeh in Qom. How influential are they in the seminaries?
FYI: Twitter rumors say Beheshti is now under arrest. They REALLY don't want the truth to come out.
http://twitter.com/onlymehdi/status/3846258544
Most intresting new of the day:
Radio Farda reports that Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli has expressed his intention to carry on the work of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, whose offices were raided yesterday.
This could mean 2 things but which of the two is it ?
Pedestrian/ Thomas
Unless Brute force is used never in a 100 years would mesbah yazdi get enough votes.
They have tried a few times to get rid of Hashemi as the head and have lost all attempts, each time with a bigger defeat.
Everybody knows what a vote for Yazdi would mean n the longrun, he has no chance of making it.
Afshin,
Understand. The question we are all looking at: are they willing to use brute force? The signs from their actions show they might be.