Thursday
Sep102009
The Latest from Iran (10 September): Who Fits Where?
Thursday, September 10, 2009 at 14:17
NEW Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday’s Prayers
EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised
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1955 GMT: The Youth and Student Section of Mehdi Karroubi's reformist Etemade Melli party have condemned the acts of the judiciary and security forces with the arrest of Mousavi’s and Karoubi’s advisors. The section declared that these actions in the run-up to Qods Day (18 Sept.) not only will fail to cause fear in people but will encourage them to attend the epic demonstration on that day.
1815 GMT: There is a bit of a buzz about a letter from the noted political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader, proclaiming that Iranians will celebrate the "decline of religious despotism".
1740 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has expressed support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s “Green Path of Hope” as a manifesto for the liberation of Iranians from the "defective cycle of tyranny".
1735 GMT: Still don't believe there is a foreign-directed effort at "velvet revolution" in Iran? Well here, courtesy of Raja News, is the super-duper, multi-colour chart (with arrows) to prove it.
1730 GMT: Norooz, which was down earlier today because of an "Internal Server Error", is back online.
1440 GMT: An EA correspondent clarifies our 1415 GMT entry on newssites linked to Mehdi Karroubi: "Saham News is back to posting new items, while tagheer.ir is a site that was set up some 7-8 months ago during Khatami's President candidacy."
1425 GMT: Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, has said that if Mehdi Karroubi cannot establish his claims of detainee abuse, he should be tried on criminal charges. The source is significant because Bahonar had been a vocal foe of the President during the debate over the Cabinet.
1415 GMT: There are reports that staff of Mehdi Karroubi have set up an alternative website to replace the suspended Saham News/Etemade Melli party site. The alternative, tagheer.ir, has similar content and approach to that of Saham News.
At the same time, it appears that the Norooz site, a key source for recent news is down because of "Internal Server Error". Before it went down, the site was disputing the Government's denial of its list of 72 people killed in post-election conflict and reporting that the memorial for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, which the Government had tried to block, had been held at the family home.
1345 GMT: Amnesty International says it has reports that Caspian Makan, the fiancé of Neda Agha Soltan, who was shot and killed by Basiji militia on 20 June, has been released from detention.
1330 GMT: Report that Zohreh Ashtiani, a reporter with Saham News, the Etemade Melli party's website, was arrested and her house searched. A later report says she was released after 12 hours of questioning.
0940 GMT: Just back from an interview with BBC World Service Radio on President Obama's speech on health care (the audio is now up for the next 24 hours). Not much breaking in Iran.
And, confirming our 0800 GMT post, it appears that Iran, apart from The Bomb, will stay off the agenda for most international media. A CNN anchor has just posted their editorial call: "Iraq blast/Afghanistan/India stampede/Mex hijacking/Turkey flood/Taiwan Cabinet/world cup". Yep, the US match with Trinidad & Tobago beats out any consideration of the Government crackdown. (No, the CNN website never did mention the arrest of key Mousavi and Karroubi advisors like Alireza Beheshti.)
0815 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted "The Green Brief" for Wednesday, including the essential correction that he gave us (0655 GMT) on yesterday's statement about those breaking the law by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.
0800 GMT: The New York Times, which had been doing quite well of late with Iran coverage, decides to indulge in peripheral hysteria this morning. Michael Slackman, Nazila Fathi, and Robert Worth, each of whom has some knowledge of Iran as something more than Islam and bombs, give way for David Sanger, who knows what was told to him by the most recent "Western diplomat" or Administration official. So today, it's another recycling of the superficial and misleading claim, "U.S. Says Iran Has Ability to Expedite a Nuclear Bomb".
(Superficial because "ability to expedite a nuclear bomb" is vaguery bordering on linguistic nonsense. Misleading even in the caveats in the article: "a rapid, if risky, sprint for a nuclear weapon" is shorthand for Iran either does not yet have or has not pursued the capability to convert low-yield uranium into highly-enriched uranium in practice, rather than theory. Thus, "the new intelligence information collected by the Obama administration finds no convincing evidence that design work has resumed."
All swept away because someone told Sanger something on his way to the office to file a story: "In interviews over the past two months, intelligence and military officials, and members of the Obama administration, have said they are convinced that Iran has made significant progress on uranium enrichment, especially over the past year.")
Perhaps Sanger might write, for his next not-exactly-an-exclusive, "Ohmygod, Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All!"
0655 GMT: With a slow morning for breaking news (which is tempting fate, since we said the same thing yesterday and then faced a torrent of afternoon development), we have posted an analysis, "Retrenching before Friday Prayers". And we've taken time to give a breaking story, featured in The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, the respect it deserves: "EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All".
There is, however, one significant development or, rather, a correction of a development. We updated yesterday on the interview of the head of Iran's judiciary, "Has Larijani Jumped Behind Ahmadinejad?", because we read his condemnation of those "outside the law" as a reference to the opposition. Indeed we posted in our last update, The New York Times, drawing from Fars News Agency, was highlighting Larijani's phrase “great costs to the Islamic system”.
Josh Shahryar has had a close look, however, at the interview as it appeared on Radio Zamaneh. Read on its own, it is unclear who is being targeted by this passage:
However, the ambiguity evaporates when the previous paragraph is added: "Judiciary Chief Sadegh Larijani today said that what had happened in the detention centers had inflicted a huge blow on the standing of the regime. He said that the Judiciary would pursue these violations carefully and vigorously."
EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1955 GMT: The Youth and Student Section of Mehdi Karroubi's reformist Etemade Melli party have condemned the acts of the judiciary and security forces with the arrest of Mousavi’s and Karoubi’s advisors. The section declared that these actions in the run-up to Qods Day (18 Sept.) not only will fail to cause fear in people but will encourage them to attend the epic demonstration on that day.1815 GMT: There is a bit of a buzz about a letter from the noted political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader, proclaiming that Iranians will celebrate the "decline of religious despotism".
1740 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has expressed support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s “Green Path of Hope” as a manifesto for the liberation of Iranians from the "defective cycle of tyranny".
1735 GMT: Still don't believe there is a foreign-directed effort at "velvet revolution" in Iran? Well here, courtesy of Raja News, is the super-duper, multi-colour chart (with arrows) to prove it.
1730 GMT: Norooz, which was down earlier today because of an "Internal Server Error", is back online.
1440 GMT: An EA correspondent clarifies our 1415 GMT entry on newssites linked to Mehdi Karroubi: "Saham News is back to posting new items, while tagheer.ir is a site that was set up some 7-8 months ago during Khatami's President candidacy."
1425 GMT: Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, has said that if Mehdi Karroubi cannot establish his claims of detainee abuse, he should be tried on criminal charges. The source is significant because Bahonar had been a vocal foe of the President during the debate over the Cabinet.
1415 GMT: There are reports that staff of Mehdi Karroubi have set up an alternative website to replace the suspended Saham News/Etemade Melli party site. The alternative, tagheer.ir, has similar content and approach to that of Saham News.
At the same time, it appears that the Norooz site, a key source for recent news is down because of "Internal Server Error". Before it went down, the site was disputing the Government's denial of its list of 72 people killed in post-election conflict and reporting that the memorial for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, which the Government had tried to block, had been held at the family home.
1345 GMT: Amnesty International says it has reports that Caspian Makan, the fiancé of Neda Agha Soltan, who was shot and killed by Basiji militia on 20 June, has been released from detention.
1330 GMT: Report that Zohreh Ashtiani, a reporter with Saham News, the Etemade Melli party's website, was arrested and her house searched. A later report says she was released after 12 hours of questioning.
0940 GMT: Just back from an interview with BBC World Service Radio on President Obama's speech on health care (the audio is now up for the next 24 hours). Not much breaking in Iran.
And, confirming our 0800 GMT post, it appears that Iran, apart from The Bomb, will stay off the agenda for most international media. A CNN anchor has just posted their editorial call: "Iraq blast/Afghanistan/India stampede/Mex hijacking/Turkey flood/Taiwan Cabinet/world cup". Yep, the US match with Trinidad & Tobago beats out any consideration of the Government crackdown. (No, the CNN website never did mention the arrest of key Mousavi and Karroubi advisors like Alireza Beheshti.)
0815 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted "The Green Brief" for Wednesday, including the essential correction that he gave us (0655 GMT) on yesterday's statement about those breaking the law by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.
0800 GMT: The New York Times, which had been doing quite well of late with Iran coverage, decides to indulge in peripheral hysteria this morning. Michael Slackman, Nazila Fathi, and Robert Worth, each of whom has some knowledge of Iran as something more than Islam and bombs, give way for David Sanger, who knows what was told to him by the most recent "Western diplomat" or Administration official. So today, it's another recycling of the superficial and misleading claim, "U.S. Says Iran Has Ability to Expedite a Nuclear Bomb".
(Superficial because "ability to expedite a nuclear bomb" is vaguery bordering on linguistic nonsense. Misleading even in the caveats in the article: "a rapid, if risky, sprint for a nuclear weapon" is shorthand for Iran either does not yet have or has not pursued the capability to convert low-yield uranium into highly-enriched uranium in practice, rather than theory. Thus, "the new intelligence information collected by the Obama administration finds no convincing evidence that design work has resumed."
All swept away because someone told Sanger something on his way to the office to file a story: "In interviews over the past two months, intelligence and military officials, and members of the Obama administration, have said they are convinced that Iran has made significant progress on uranium enrichment, especially over the past year.")
Perhaps Sanger might write, for his next not-exactly-an-exclusive, "Ohmygod, Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All!"
0655 GMT: With a slow morning for breaking news (which is tempting fate, since we said the same thing yesterday and then faced a torrent of afternoon development), we have posted an analysis, "Retrenching before Friday Prayers". And we've taken time to give a breaking story, featured in The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, the respect it deserves: "EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All".
There is, however, one significant development or, rather, a correction of a development. We updated yesterday on the interview of the head of Iran's judiciary, "Has Larijani Jumped Behind Ahmadinejad?", because we read his condemnation of those "outside the law" as a reference to the opposition. Indeed we posted in our last update, The New York Times, drawing from Fars News Agency, was highlighting Larijani's phrase “great costs to the Islamic system”.
Josh Shahryar has had a close look, however, at the interview as it appeared on Radio Zamaneh. Read on its own, it is unclear who is being targeted by this passage:
Some had tried to call the elections fraudulent and attempted to stray outside "the circle of legality". [Larijani] said that law-breaking had become rampant and it had been observed in the aftermath of the elections how such actions had inflicted a great cost on the Islamic regime. He said that these violators shouldn't think that they're not being watched and the Judiciary should pursue the perpetrators of any such law-breaking legally.
However, the ambiguity evaporates when the previous paragraph is added: "Judiciary Chief Sadegh Larijani today said that what had happened in the detention centers had inflicted a huge blow on the standing of the regime. He said that the Judiciary would pursue these violations carefully and vigorously."
tagged Alireza Beheshti, Ayatollah Taleghani, BBC World Service, CNN, Caspian Makan, David Sanger, Etemade Melli, Green Path of Hope, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Josh Shahryar, Kargozaran Party, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Neda Agha Soltan, New York Times, Norooz, Nuclear Proliferation, Sadegh Larijani, Saham News, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Zohreh Ashtiani, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
Alireza Beheshti, Ayatollah Taleghani, BBC World Service, CNN, Caspian Makan, David Sanger, Etemade Melli, Green Path of Hope, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Josh Shahryar, Kargozaran Party, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Neda Agha Soltan, New York Times, Norooz, Nuclear Proliferation, Sadegh Larijani, Saham News, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Zohreh Ashtiani, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (23)
Thank you for the nuclear bomb clarification. I think we're all forgetting what happened in Iraq and the damage it caused. Swaying public opinion and fear-mongering is becoming a trademark of some journalists these days.
What ever and who ever Larrijani meant, Isn't the possibe correction on the Larrijani remarks not at their BEST more of the same non Biting slightly barking dog... a very small non existing carrot to balance the huge hard hittng stick ?
Dear Scott, and all your collaborators on EA, my Iranian wife and I we've been following your coverage of the Iranian post-election crisis since the very beginning, and we firmly thank you for your persistence and high-quality journalism. At this moment EA is about the only news source really on top of what is really going on in Iran (together with Josh Shahryar's splendid green brief). We congratelate you from the bottom of our hearts. Please don't give up.
Tom,
We are so grateful for this support. It makes us think that the effort is worthwhile.
S.
Thank you so much for the nuclear clarification . In a world where independent , unbiased and conscious oriented journalists are among endangered species ; You honor journalism .
Intresting new rumours circulating on the net;
http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/
Where is Hashemi, can we expect a big move from him anytime soon. AN has put alot of pressure on his son and on him. He has the backing of the majority of clerics. Does anyone know when the next meeting in the assembly of experts is taking place?. I read that Hashemi has the backing of Saudi-Arabia and the CIA favours him to be in charge. Hashemi is an enigma, a mystery wrapped in a riddle.
where the hell is he?
Some of these supplications for Hashemi to act are starting to sound eerily similar to the prayers among some fundamentalist Shiites asking for the Mahdi's return now.
My guess is Hashemi will act in a meaningful way at about the same time as devout muslims adopt the practice of breaking the Ramadan fast by consuming vast quantities of German pork sausages, bacon and cold Belgian beers.
@Arash
"I cannot forecast to you the action of Rafsanjani. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Rafsanjani's self interest."
Famous quote by someone more famous than all of us put together.... I changed one world and it is very fitting of the Shark, however I fear the Shark is now being hunted rather than being hte hunter.... I know Afshin thinks in the vacume of leadership that Rafsanjani may deliver, however I fear that he will only deliver disapointment and denial and letdown. Rafsanjani has become too attached to what he has aquired to be able to fight for what he is likely to lose....
@ whereismyvote
The only thing i am really focussing on now is why the push from the guards. It does not make alot of sence;
1) is this all a warning for sept 18. saying its finished, its done, so no more street protests?
2) is it something else?
The push, the throwing oil on the fire does not make sense in a time when they need things to cool down. Why would u further attack an allready quited enemy? Mind u world (well ok Except EA). As you can see there is no world coverage on Iran latley yet they are acting in a way where the focuss is being put again on the coup.
It seems they are pushing harder then needed, almost forcing things on a tight time table. Why ?
Is it because they fear something ? Something tomorow may bring. So what would/ could tommorow bring that makes the Guards scared?
@afshin, if we look at it this way; this election was a manifistation of a power struggle between Hashemi and the guards over iranian economy and in sense the control of Iran. The guards obstacle for gaining monopoly over iranian economy is Rafsanjani. The reason I think the guards are pushing so hard is that they have the "finish line" in sight, they want to eliminate him totally from having political and economical influence, they`ve gone to the mattresses and declared war on Rafsanjani. I think that the more the Guards push, the better,I actually hope for the arrest of mousavi or karrobi, cause then Rafsanjani has no other option then to fight back in full scale. The guards have won a few battles , but the war is far from over.
@Arash and Afshin
Afshin, I too see the push for victory against a timeline as a weakness, but can not figure why? Health of the leader? Well this certainly would be known by Rafsanjani too, and he would have solidified his base at Expediency council and made inroads into weakening parliament, if he knew the leader was on the way to die... Arashes view of the finish line and a one last push for total victory? That means that Rafsanjani is spent then and that they feel its game over almost...
Rafsanjani's response would have been also harsher. An animal cornered fearing for its life will fight hard. Why is he so quite? He still can initiate many moves as you so well analysed a week ago into an eight card play.
It may be a combination of things, but also it may be more to do with the very inherent nature of the beast. Confront continuously at all fronts all the time. The beast does not know how to change its behaviour even when its in its best interest to do so. So what of Qods day? I think nothing will happen. Rafsanjani will back down silently and there will be a 10000 person march that will be brutally crushed. Not the 100000 to 1 million man march needed to sustain the flames....
The Rafsanjani clan will immigrate to Britain and just like the Russian Oliagrags before them set up shop in resistance to the main player at home in their new mansions. Canada and USA will also take their cut of the dissidents. Else Rafsanjani has a joker up his sleeve that the guards know of. Perhaps what you even mentioned the death of the leader in 6 to 12 months as an imminent event..
This is increasingly becoming like the games of politics my grandfather explained to me so patiently that I had always rejected. So now I am in middle of one and its taking the shape of a classic Iranian conspiracy theory.
This individuals reports have been reliable in the past. According to this individual's sources, arrest warrants for K and M have been issued and their arrests are imminent.
http://twitter.com/MikVerbrugge
@whereismyvote
Thats exactly what I mean. Hashemi is to relaxed while the Guards seem edgy.
A cornered beast fights, is unpredictable and at the same time has no time to plan or think he just fights savagly.
Hashemi is showing no sign of a cornered beast, he seems more like a very patient man sticking to a certain strategy, It's almost as if they are challenging him to make a move and he is thinking I will not be seduced to move faster then I am ready.
At the one side he does not seem to have backed down on the other he is playing the game very patiently regardless of they throw at him... it is odd, very odd.
For a man like him there is no Running away to Europe (Karbala or Najaf at the best), He is to smart to know that making peace now is not an option as the Guards would settle for nothing less then a complete win. So that leaves just one option FIGHT.... He must realise this so why does he not fight back ? What is he waiting for ? What is his agenda ? There must be something we are missing....
Cyaxeres,
I have followed this rumour very closely. I appreciate MikVerbrugge's efforts, but he relies on an unnamed informant whose assertions cannot be verified and have not always held up over the last three months. So we have not reported this as "fact" or even "likely" on our updates.
However, we are keeping eyes and ears very open.
S.
@Cyaxares
without saying this is true or not.. in general I find mikverbrugge's reports to be very onesided...
Scott,
Thanks so much for your commitment to journalism as a discipline of verification and not just assertion!
http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2009/09/09/en-iran-l-etau-se-resserre-autour-des-chefs-de-file-de-la-contestation_1237940_3218.html#ens_id=1190750
At last 1 relevant article on Iran -however simplified and summary- in french
The general absence of perspective (and updated news) in the mainstream
medias on the current situation is dismaying. Thanks so much for
your irreplaceable work dear Scott and E.E.staff. Yseut
Yseut,
Thank you for updating us on French coverage. Let us know if Le Monde continues to follow the story.
S.
Is there any news about the condition of Alireza Beheshti? I posted a comment yesterday based on a report that he had been severely injured after his arrest. Later someone said that the report was unconfirmed. Ever since, I've been hoping it was a rumor. Any updates on his situation?
I agree w/ what's been aaid about MikVerbrugge. Some of his info, particularly on the Judiciary front, has been decent; other stuff, questionable.
I don't dismiss him, but I don't treat it as fact either.
I would like to address a few things:
- Of course the person I get the info from is unnamed, what do you expect? The guy and the people he gathers info from are at risk, I'm not going to out them. "Contact" has "sources" who "leak" or "report" stuff is pretty much all you're going to get.
- I'm not a journalist. I chose to relay possible rumors early, rather than sit on info until it's too late. Which means I'm not even a "citizen journalist". I can't picture myself waiting until another source confirms and say "I knew that..."
- Of course it's one sided, it's not like I have a Rolodex with contact info from dozens of people from all factions to ask them their point of view!
MV
PS : Twitter is interactive you can actually ask me stuff :)
@MikVerbrugge: you make absolute sense. And you were always very clear about your source - never claimed to know the exact truth.
So please keep on feeding us the rumours, leaks, reports. They can be of importance too. Thanks for al you've done so far!