The Latest from Iran (25 September): The Nuclear Distraction

NEW Video: Ahmadinejad Interview with Time Magazine
NEW Transcript: Obama and Sarkozy Statements on Iran Nuclear Programme
NEW Iran: Obama's "Get-Tough" Move for Engagement
Iran: Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and the Multi-Sided Chess Match
Latest Video: Full Speech of Ahmadinejad at UN General Assembly
Iran: English Text of Letters between Mousavi and Montazeri (13 and 22 September)

1835 GMT: Report that Azar Mansouri, deputy head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been arrested after an interview with Norooz.

1735 GMT: Is Iran's "Secret Nuclear Plant" Legal? The quick soundbite for Time from its interview with President Ahmadinejad is ""This does not mean we must inform Mr. Obama's administration of every facility that we have."

However, Ahmadinejad may have a point, one which is relevant to the current case. Iran notified the IAEA on Monday that it was constructing a new pilot enrichment plant. If Tehran has not put nuclear material into this facility, Iran is in compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty's Comprehensive Full Scope Safeguards Agreement, which requires it to a six-month notification period before nuclear material is put in the facility. (Iran withdrew from the more Subsidiary Agreement 3.1, which requires more detailed and timely notification, after the International Atomic Energy Agency referred Iran's nuclear program to the U.N. Security Council.

So the case to prosecute Iran under the Non-Proliferation Treaty is not clear-cut. Of course, the US can and will rely upon the U.N. Security Council resolutions demanding that Iran cease all enrichment. Whether other countries (China, Russia) take the same line remains to be seen.

1730 GMT: President Ahmadinejad may have backed out of an encounter with the New York media, but he did give a one-on-one video interview to Time magazine. We've posted in a separate entry.

1700 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has replaced his New York press conference with an interview with Press TV.

1500 GMT: We've just posted Chris Emery's shrewd analysis of the politics of the US revelation of the "secret nuclear plant" and the Obama statement: "This high-profile initiative by Obama was designed to get movement on engagement."

1425 GMT: Amidst the continuing chatter on the Obama statement --- no additional information, just the theme of "He was Really Tough" --- news services drop in this interesting twist "Ahmadinejad cancels his 5 pm EST (2100 GMT) speech in NYC [New York City]".

1245 GMT: The Obama Line. The President has just made his statement on the Iran "secret nuclear plant". The message? This demonstrates Iran's "continuing unwillingness" to meets its "international obligations" on development of nuclear capability. This showed the "urgency" of resolution at talks with Iran on 1 October in Geneva.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has backed this up by saying "everything must be put on the table", and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has proclaimed this "the most urgent problem" of today.

This feels more and more like a scripted play. The "West" has known for some time that Iran was constructing a second uranium enrichment plant but had not announced this to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran figured out that the US had learned of the plant and was preparing a big setpiece, ahead of the 1 October talks, to reveal the Iranian duplicity. So Iran went to the IAEA on Monday to put its plans above-board. This, however, was  not going to deflect the US-UK-France scheme to put Iran on the defensive in advance of the first direct discussions between Washington and Tehran.

1220 GMT: By the way, there was a Friday Prayer address today. After the drama of recent weeks, this one, by hard-line Government supporter and head of the Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, went almost unnoticed.

Nothing much new here. Jannati talks about triumph over "the enemy" through the political, military, and regional power of Iran and invokes the Holy Defense of the 1980-1988 war against Iraq. Like the Supreme Leader, he portrayed the demonstrations of Qods Day and Eid-ul-Fitr as Iranian support for the world's oppressed, and he condemned the tragedy of the assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly of Experts.

1210 GMT: And Here's You Obama Administration  Line. A "senior Administration source" uses one of the reliable channels (i.e. will put out the message as presented, will not look behind or beyond it), ABC's Jake Tapper: "[Obama] to express 'great and increasing doubts about the strictly peaceful nature' of Iran's nuclear program"

1200 GMT: NBC's Ann Curry nails the politics on the "secret nuclear plant" story, and she only needs 1 Tweet to do it: "Remember the US and Iran about to negotiate. The West has an interest in increasing the pressure now."

1145 GMT: The Iran State Line. Press TV, in an article posted this morning, does not address the "secret nuclear plant" story but refers to French and British allegations of an Iranian nuclear progamme, made during the exchanges at the United Nations this week, as "totally baseless and untrue". The Iranian UN mission added that remarks by French President Nicolas Sarkozy were a "futile attempt aimed to cover up [French] non-compliance with its international disarmament obligations".

1050 GMT: So the story of Iran's "secret nuclear plant" (which isn't secret, since Tehran informed the International Atomic Agency of the construction of the uranium enrichment facility on Monday) is going to dominate the news cycle, as every US and many international outlets rush lemming-like to the tale and President Obama makes a statement at 1230 GMT.

If only someone takes a step back to note this comment from CNN's Fareed Zakaria, made after President Ahmadinejad's UN speech: "Ahmadinejad has been on a campaign over the last few weeks to change the subject. His great fear was that he would come to New York and the subject would be the Iranian regime and his massive repression of the Iranian democracy movement, the street protests, all the allegations being made by Iranians of what is happening in Iran --- rape, torture, abuse. What he wanted to do was to talk about anything but that."

0900 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Useful US Idiots. I was going to write the following analysis for Saturday, but events prompt me to offer a preview:

Ahmadinejad was on verge of major mis-step by playing New York trip as sign that all now resolved at home. 'West', however, played into his hands by raising Iran (and Ahmadinejad) to iconic threat on nuke issue. And Netanyahu gives kiss of death to opposition by praising their supposed aim of regime change. So the President gets to do his aggressive defend-Iran thing, getting more legitimacy out of West than he has many of his own people.

Five minutes after jotting this down, I read the Administration's latest strategic masterpiece in The New York Times, courtesy of David Sanger (who seems to have no recognition that he is a messenger-boy);

President Obama and the leaders of Britain and France will accuse Iran Friday of building a secret underground plant to manufacture nuclear fuel, saying it has hidden the covert operation for years from international weapons inspectors, according to senior administration officials.

Well done, guys. Instead of keeping your mouths shut and letting Ahmadinejad return to political complications at home, you've given him the ideal platform to pose as defender of Iranian sovereignty. And watch how your PR stick, wielded just before talks with Iran on 1 October, is turned into a stick by the President, his allies, and his supportive State media to bash "foreign-directed" reformists and the Green movement at home.

Idiots.

0650 GMT: Catching up, indeed. Even though the EA roadtrip was less than 72 hours, there appears to be a month's worth of incidents to consider. Forget the Ahmadinejad sideshow in New York; the events in and around the Assembly of Experts offer a plethora of possibilities. We've attempted an analysis,
"Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and the Multi-Sided Chess Match", this morning.

Of course, state media features Ayatollah Khamenei's address to the Assembly of Experts, but it also keeps playing up President Ahmadinejad's defiance of the "West", from his warning against sanctions to his explanation that "Down with the US" refers to the "ugly behavior" of the American Government.

The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

NEW Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
Iran: Montazeri Letter to Islamic Clerics (14 September)
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

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2030 GMT: An Artistic Clash for the Supreme Leader? A colleague writes with an essential correction of our first item today (0710 GMT) on Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting yesterday with ""artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers":

"The English version of Khamenei's speech to the artists actually doesn't reflect what the meeting was about. It wasn't for him to give them any guidance but rather, as Fars News fascinating account of it reveals, it was meant for the various artists to speak 'frankly' with Khamenei. While Fars New tries to whitewash some of the conversations that the artists had with Khamenei, it is clear even by their own censored account that it was a raucous meeting and that at least a couple of the artists, including Majid Majidi (who accoring to Fars News breaks down into tears) conveyed some kind of oppositional sentiment. One filmmaker when asked to speak says he doesn't feel well and sits down. Another when told there is no time for him to speak, after he had prepared a talk complains, 'You keep contacting me for a couple of days asking me to come and speak my mind and now you tell me there's no time?'"

1855 GMT: Really? According to Peykeiran, the Supreme Leader's representative with the Revolutionary Guard has warned that the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi would turn them into martyrs for the Green opposition.

Given that the Supreme Leader supposedly signed the order for Karroubi's arrest two weeks ago, this is a bit confusing. Then again, as our readers are debating in their comments, Ayatollah Khamenei's position may be far from secure.

1800 GMT: Easy Does It. In a measured, even careful, interview with Tabnak, Hashemi Rafsanjani has downplayed his absence from leading Friday Prayers on Qods Day for the first time in a quarter-century: "It is not necessary after 30 years that I should lead the prayers."

1555 GMT: Why are tents being erected around the main campus of Tehran University, where this Friday's prayers will be held?

1545 GMT: Make of this what you will: the Iranian Government has declared national holidays on Saturday and Monday, the day before and after the celebration of the end of Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr.

1310 GMT: Cyber-charge. Talk about a story turning in a few hours. The opposition's aggressive fightback on the Web continues: Mowj-e-Sabz has launched an English-language website.

1215 GMT: Cyber-bounce. Indeed, after our worry this morning (0950 GMT) about a drop in information via the Web, there is a bit of a resurgence. Mehdi Karroubi seems to have a new website for his statements and news. Is this an alternative for the Etemade Melli site, which is still down?

News is also being posted on tagheer.ir.

1200 GMT: If the Iranian regime is trying to block news in and out of Iran, the effort is incomplete. Fereshteh Ghazi has interviewed Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, who highlights the clerical resistance: "The authorities know [their] pressures have no effect on my position and action or those of Qom scholars." He adds, in relation to the arrest of his children and the family members of other clerics on Monday, "My sons and the sons of Mr. Nazemzadeh and Mr. Ahmadi aren't clerics, so why are they tried in clerics' court?"(summary in English via Ghazi's Twitter account)

Twitter traffic from inside Iran is also picking up.

1120 GMT: The US network NBC is interviewing President Ahmadinejad today and broadcasting the discussion on tomorrow morning's Today programme.

1110 GMT: The Mousavi Facebook page is still active, just posting the statement of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomenei, inviting all Iranians to participate in the rally on Qods Day "a day...for the oppressed to fight oppressors and tyranny".

1100 GMT: Morning MediaFail. CNN ($199/story) are not eligible, since they no longer have news from inside Iran. Instead, the award goes to Robert Tait and The Guardian of London. Amidst all the tension in advance of Qods Day, the confusion over Friday Prayers, the raids, the arrests, the Karroubi letters, the protests by senior clerics, their story today?

"Chinese jeans bearing name of God anger Iranians".

In their quasi-defence, the prominent notation "Read This in Chinese" is a clue that The Guardian's market attention is far away from Tehran.

1050 GMT: Cyber-war. Internet traffic from Iranians inside Iran is almost at a standstill this morning. Nothing is coming through via Twitter and contacts also remove no interaction on Facebook.

Etemade Melli/Saham News and Norooz are down. Mowj-e-Sabz and Kaleme are both up.

0950 GMT: Correcting an oversight. We have reported the arrest of the three grandchildren of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri on Monday. The children of Ayatollah Hossein Mousavi Tabrizi,were also arrested.

The catalyst for the arrests may have been an Iftar at the house of Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i. EA has received information that this Iftar, where reformist clerics and their families gathered, angered the regime and also led to the filing of a court action by President Ahmadinejad's office against Sane'i.

0935 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency carries the short item that President Ahmadinejad will introduce Ahmad Khatami, who will give the Friday Prayer address this week.

0925 GMT: Associated Press is claiming, from Iranian state radio, that the Government has confirmed Ahmad Khatami will lead Qods Day prayers.

0710 GMT: Yesterday's confusion over Qods Day continues. While Tuesday was a pretty good one for the Green leadership, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami signalled that they would join forces with Mehdi Karroubi, the Government's disarray over Friday prayers was never resolved. We've tried to see the events in wider perspective, leading up to Qods Day, in a separate analysis, "Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces".

Rather than offer any specific guidance, the Supreme Leader spent Tuesday telling "artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers" that they should be putting out proper art. His reference point was not the current internal conflict but the 1980-1988 war with Iraq: "The eight-year Sacred Defense was the embodiment of outstanding characteristics, prominent cultural values, and lofty beliefs, and those who recount it in an artistic manner are like a mirror reflecting the manifestation of splendor and glory."

If there was contemporary resonance in Ayatollah Khamenei's address, it may be in this cryptic injunction to artists that "their sensitive views should not create a spirit of despair in people".

The Latest from Iran (10 September): Who Fits Where?

NEW Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday’s Prayers
EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised


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1955 GMT: The Youth and Student Section of Mehdi Karroubi's reformist Etemade Melli party have condemned the acts of the judiciary and security forces with the arrest of Mousavi’s and Karoubi’s advisors. The section declared that these actions in the run-up to Qods Day (18 Sept.) not only will fail to cause fear in people but will encourage them to attend the epic demonstration on that day.

1815 GMT: There is a bit of a buzz about a letter from the noted political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader, proclaiming that Iranians will celebrate the "decline of religious despotism".

1740 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has expressed support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s “Green Path of Hope” as a manifesto for the liberation of Iranians from the "defective cycle of tyranny".

1735 GMT: Still don't believe there is a foreign-directed effort at "velvet revolution" in Iran? Well here, courtesy of Raja News, is the super-duper, multi-colour chart (with arrows) to prove it.

1730 GMT: Norooz, which was down earlier today because of an "Internal Server Error", is back online.

1440 GMT: An EA correspondent clarifies our 1415 GMT entry on newssites linked to Mehdi Karroubi: "Saham News is back to posting new items, while tagheer.ir is a site that was set up some 7-8 months ago during Khatami's President candidacy."

1425 GMT: Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, has said that if Mehdi Karroubi cannot establish his claims of detainee abuse, he should be tried on criminal charges. The source is significant because Bahonar had been a vocal foe of the President during the debate over the Cabinet.

1415 GMT: There are reports that staff of Mehdi Karroubi have set up an alternative website to replace the suspended Saham News/Etemade Melli party site. The alternative, tagheer.ir, has similar content and approach to that of Saham News.

At the same time, it appears that the Norooz site, a key source for recent news is down because of "Internal Server Error". Before it went down, the site was disputing the Government's denial of its list of 72 people killed in post-election conflict and reporting that the memorial for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, which the Government had tried to block, had been held at the family home.

1345 GMT: Amnesty International says it has reports that Caspian Makan, the fiancé of Neda Agha Soltan, who was shot and killed by Basiji militia on 20 June, has been released from detention.

1330 GMT: Report that Zohreh Ashtiani, a reporter with Saham News, the Etemade Melli party's website, was arrested and her house searched. A later report says she was released after 12 hours of questioning.

0940 GMT: Just back from an interview with BBC World Service Radio on President Obama's speech on health care (the audio is now up for the next 24 hours). Not much breaking in Iran.

And, confirming our  0800 GMT post, it appears that Iran, apart from The Bomb, will stay off the agenda for most international media. A CNN anchor has just posted their editorial call: "Iraq blast/Afghanistan/India stampede/Mex hijacking/Turkey flood/Taiwan Cabinet/world cup". Yep, the US match with Trinidad & Tobago beats out any consideration of the Government crackdown. (No, the CNN website never did mention the arrest of key Mousavi and Karroubi advisors like Alireza Beheshti.)

0815 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted "The Green Brief" for Wednesday, including the essential correction that he gave us (0655 GMT) on yesterday's statement about those breaking the law by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

0800 GMT: The New York Times, which had been doing quite well of late with Iran coverage, decides to indulge in peripheral hysteria this morning. Michael Slackman, Nazila Fathi, and Robert Worth, each of whom has some knowledge of Iran as something more than Islam and bombs, give way for David Sanger, who knows what was told to him by the most recent "Western diplomat" or Administration official. So today, it's another recycling of the superficial and misleading claim, "U.S. Says Iran Has Ability to Expedite a Nuclear Bomb".

(Superficial because "ability to expedite a nuclear bomb" is vaguery bordering on linguistic nonsense. Misleading even in the caveats in the article: "a rapid, if risky, sprint for a nuclear weapon" is shorthand for Iran either does not yet have or has not pursued the capability to convert low-yield uranium into highly-enriched uranium in practice, rather than theory. Thus, "the new intelligence information collected by the Obama administration finds no convincing evidence that design work has resumed."

All swept away because someone told Sanger something on his way to the office to file a story: "In interviews over the past two months, intelligence and military officials, and members of the Obama administration, have said they are convinced that Iran has made significant progress on uranium enrichment, especially over the past year.")

Perhaps Sanger might write, for his next not-exactly-an-exclusive, "Ohmygod, Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All!"

0655 GMT: With a slow morning for breaking news (which is tempting fate, since we said the same thing yesterday and then faced a torrent of afternoon development), we have posted an analysis, "Retrenching before Friday Prayers". And we've taken time to give a breaking story, featured in The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, the respect it deserves: "EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All".

There is, however, one significant development or, rather, a  correction of a development. We updated yesterday on the interview of the head of Iran's judiciary, "Has Larijani Jumped Behind Ahmadinejad?", because we read his condemnation of those "outside the law" as  a reference to the opposition. Indeed we posted in our last update, The New York Times, drawing from Fars News Agency, was highlighting Larijani's phrase “great costs to the Islamic system”.

Josh Shahryar has had a close look, however, at the interview as it appeared on Radio Zamaneh. Read on its own, it is unclear who is being targeted by this passage:

Some had tried to call the elections fraudulent and attempted to stray outside "the circle of legality". [Larijani] said that law-breaking had become rampant and it had been observed in the aftermath of the elections how such actions had inflicted a great cost on the Islamic regime. He said that these violators shouldn't think that they're not being watched and the Judiciary should pursue the perpetrators of any such law-breaking legally.

However, the ambiguity evaporates when the previous paragraph is added: "Judiciary Chief Sadegh Larijani today said that what had happened in the detention centers had inflicted a huge blow on the standing of the regime. He said that the Judiciary would pursue these violations carefully and vigorously."

The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?

NEW Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

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2020 GMT: One to Watch. The last posting on the Etemade Melli (Saham News) website, a full report on Mehdi Karroubi's Eftar dinner party for the employees of the Etemade Melli newspaper), went up at 1:10 p.m. Tehran time (0840 GMT).

2015 GMT: In the midst of developments, this from Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's address to members of a reformist faction earlier today (1510 GMT): "Power is not the foundation of legitimacy; rather legitimacy is the foundation of power. Some think that by playing with words they can change this."

1945 GMT: I don't think we realised this morning, when we chose the title for the updates, how appropriate the question would be.

Cross-posted from our emergency analysis, "Is This A Defining Showdown?": "Just after 1800 GMT, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested. (We held off posting until this was confirmed in a reliable source.) The only step up from this action is the arrest of leaders such as Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi."

So far no Western media outlet, to our knowledge, has picked up on the story.

1855 GMT: "New" v. Mainstream Media.

Report of raid on Mehdi Karroubi's office on Enduring America: 1340 GMT.

Emergency analysis of raid on Karroubi office on Enduring America: 1415 GMT.

1st report of raid on CNN's website: 1743 GMT.

1845 GMT: Press TV's website has acknowledged the raid on Karroubi's office with an account lifted word-for-word from the report in Parleman News (see 1340 GMT).

1710 GMT: A Revolutionary Guard official has said that the recent comments of IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, claiming that former President Khatami and other reformists seek to "unseat" the regime, are "backed by evidence" given to Iran's judiciary which the IRGC is willing to publish.

1700 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli has expressed his intention to carry on the work of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, whose offices were raided yesterday.

1555 GMT: The family of the late Ayatollah Taleghani, whose memorial ceremony was blocked by the Government for the first time since his death in 1979, have announced an alternative site for the gathering.

1510 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, speaking to reformists, has claimed that the headquarters of the Supreme Leader no longer have any shame before God or people.

1420 GMT: We have posted an emergency analysis, "Is This the Defining Showdown?"

1350 GMT: Reuters has an English-language summary of the raid on the Karroubi offices.

1340 GMT: URGENT Mehdi Karroubi's office has been raided by security forces on the orders of Tehran's chief prosecutor. CDs, documents, videos, and computers have been seized.

The editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli website, Mohammad Davari, has been arrested. Karroubi aide Morteza Alviri was arrested at his home. An Etemade Melli party spokesman said Karroubi had been escorted out of his office by the security forces.

1335 GMT: A source on the National Security Council has told Norooz that President Ahmadinejad ordered yesterday's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners.

1320 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi (pictured) has issued another statement via an interview in Saham News. Following up his weekend comments on the investigation of detainee abuse, he said false accusations, such as the report of an arrest warrant for his son over a financial dispute, are threats to silence him.

Karroubi emphasised that he will not give up defending people’s rights, urging people to join him in the Qods Day demonstration on 18 September.

1235 GMT: Make That a Triple Signal. Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary committee investigating detentinons, has said, "Members of this committee had some criticisms over the conduct of trials of detainees accused of being linked to the recent unrest. One of the points we stressed during the meeting was to immediately release those detainees who did not have big roles in the unrest."

1205 GMT: A Double Signal? Press TV is featuring two articles on post-election conflict. Neither of the developments are new, so it's their timing of their re-appearance that raises eyebrows.

This morning, Press TV reported, from State television, "Iranian authorities say they have launched an investigation into public complaints regarding the post-election unrest, with a focus on charges of prisoner abuse. The Supreme National Security Council has formed a committee to look into the cases of those who sustained losses of any kind after the June 12 presidential elections."

Since a Parliamentary committee was set up weeks ago to consider the allegations, this is far from an unprecedented development. However, the move from the legislature to the Executive, with the NSC's involvement, is at least a symbolic step up. Add to that the specific focus of Press TV's article, which is line with the Supreme Leader's public statements, "The officials are investigating the charges of mistreatment made by a number of detainees who were held at the Kahrizak detention center." (Pay attention also to the highlighting of the death of Mohsen Ruholamini, which prompted so much conservative and principlist fury with the Government.)

Two hours later, Press TV posted the statement of the Governor-General of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, from Fars News: "A panel has been formed in Iran's Supreme National Security Council which is closely looking into events that unfolded in a Tehran University dormitory….The investigation will be seriously conducted to reach a final result."

Previously, Tamaddon has been notable for tough talk against protestors. This statement brings him in line with the position taken by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani within two weeks of the 12 June election.

So are we seeing, 72 hours before the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayers address, a convergence around specific investigations? This would give at least a token acknowledgement of claims brought by the opposition, while at the same time emphasizing the need for "unity" and "observance of the law". It would bring together Ayatollah Khamenei, the Larijanis (Ali and head of judiciary Sadegh), key figures in Parliament and senior clerics, and maybe Hashemi Rafsanjani?

And, if this is the case, has President Ahmadinejad been told?

1105 GMT: Stopping the Gatherings. The Government has withheld permission for the memorial ceremony for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, a key figure in the Revolution who died in 1979. According to Taleghani's daughter, this is the first time in 30 years that a permit has been denied.

The obvious explanation is that the regime, which has cancelled other Ramadan ceremonies including those at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine, is fearful of any occasion where people can gather and express opposition.

1005 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has withdrawn his "replacement" nominations of Fatemeh Aliya as Minister of Education and Ali Zabihi as Minister of Energy. The original nominees were rejected last Thursday.

0950 GMT: It Just Got Interesting. Fars News reports that the Supreme Leader will lead this Friday's prayers in Tehran.

No further details but look for Ayatollah Khamenei to try and pre-empt the Green movement's plans for Qods Days demonstrations the following Friday, possibly in combination with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani. The Supreme Leader will do that by calling for "unity" and, while acknowledging that the Government needs to serve the people, upholding the system.

Two questions: 1) if this is indeed Khamenei's speech, are he and Rafsanjani finding common ground?; 2) will the Supreme Leader cross the line and issue threats against opposition leaders?.

If the answer to 1) is Yes, then we may be seeing an alignment trying to resolve the crisis. If the answer to 2), then the conflict continues.

Meanwhile, the head of Iran's police, Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has warned against demonstrations "politicising" Qods Day. (Big thanks to reader Ali for pointing us to both these stories.)

0915 GMT: Larijani's Manoeuvre. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has positioned himself behind yesterday's call by the Supreme Leader for the Government to heed "benevolent criticism": ''In uncertain situations we should take advantage of Supreme Leader's advice and thoughts''. What may be more interesting is the possibility that he is converging with Hashemi Rafsanjani's call for unity, ''All governments and societies have differences in ideology, strategy and tactics. Prejudgment is a trap for pluralism which should be avoided in current situation."

And, if I read this right, Larijani is calling for the opposition to back down from its challenge to the legitimacy of the Government over detentions and trials: "If we want to solve differences we should all follow the Law even if it may have defects."

0840 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" roundup of Monday's developments is now posted.

0715 GMT: The Detentions Issue. One of the important political dances right now is that between the three-member judiciary panel and Mehdi Karroubi, as he sets out the claims of detainee abuse. We didn't give this justice on Saturday, so are picking up now. Karroubi said:
"I offered [the panel] three documents at [Friday's] meeting. The first was a video statement by the individual who has gone missing because of threats issued by the representative of Judge Saeed Mortazavi. My second document was about the [sexual] assault of a woman. The third was a document about one man who was subjected to various calamities after his arrest and I offered a CD and the medical examiner’s report on him as well. In that session I also offered two verbal reports as well."

One of the [verbal] reports was about Taraneh Mousavi….I told them her family [is so scared] after the incident that they refuse to even let the girl who was with their daughter on that day [when she was taken] into their home anymore… [I told them] that you, as the officials of this country, must visit the family yourselves and find out the truth of matter….Go to Karaj city’s Imam Khomeini Hospital and seek the doctor’s opinion about the injuries on this girl’s body.

The case of Mousavi, raped and killed in detention, has raced around the Internet, with rumours as to who might have been responsible and why the incident has been covered up.

On a wider front, however, this is a political showdown. Karroubi had agreed with the panel not to reveal any details of discussions, but one of the members, Deputy Judiciary Head Ebrahim Raeesi, told the press that Karroubi had not presented any evidence for his accusations. It was then that the reformist cleric broke his silence.

We await the next developments.

0650 GMT: We've spent this morning on a special analysis of President Ahmadinejad's latest political strategy, which seems to consist of shoving around his opponents as "dust" and "contaminants", and the tension that it might have caused within the regime.

That tough approach is evident in two other developing stories. We've got new information and analysis on last night's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, run by Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff. And today the Government is pushing ahead with its public display of strength against the opposition, putting three prominent reformist detainees --- Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati --- on television for a "roundtable" confessing the errors of their political activity. The showpiece is part of the campaign to control discussion and activity at Iranian institutions, as the trio discuss the "promotion of pathology at the University of Western humanities, and the social and political consequences that come from following elites and political activists and Western ideas".

UPDATED Iran's Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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UPDATE 8 September: HomyLafayette, one of the foremost Twitterers and bloggers on the Iran crisis, has posted further information on the 72 people, including photographs and links to videos and stories about their lives and deaths, beginning with Hossein Akhtarzand (pictured).

Josh Shahryar of Anonymous Iran writes: Norooz, the official news outlet of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has published the names of 72 people who have died to date during protests on the streets, in detention, or from injuries sustained during the violence in the aftermath of the elections. This is only a list of those deaths that could be fully confirmed; the number of casualties could be much higher.

The list includes 12 women and 60 men, the majority of whom were under 35. About half died in two major protests, the first mass demonstration of 15 June and the "illegal" gathering on 20 June. The list does not include many names that have surfaced in the past few days, such as the slain detainee Saeedeh Pour-Aghaie.

The overwhelming majority of people on the list have died in Tehran. There are a few in Isfahan and no word on casualties in other cities. Bullet wounds seem to be the major cause of death, followed closely by beatings with batons and torture at prisons.

The first 25 names are those whose families have contacted the campaigns of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi to confirm the death of their loved ones.

1. Mr. Hossein Akhtar-Zand, 32 years old. Died on June 15 in Isfahan after being thrown down a three-story building by Basiji militia.

2. Mr. Kianoosh Asa, post-graduate student. Died on June 15 in Tehran's Azadi Square after being struck by a bullet fired by plainclothesmen. His body was identified nine days later and collected from a morgue in Tehran by family members.

3. Sohrab A'rabi, 19, high school student. Died of injuries sustained under torture at Evin Prison in Tehran. A'rabi's mother was informed of his death nearly a month after his disappearance.

4. Name: Mr. Alireza Eftekhari, 29, reporter. Died on June 15 of a brain hemorrhage after being struck with batons on the head and other parts of his body. His body was returned to his family on July 13.

5. Neda Agha-Soltan, 27, philosophy student. Died on June 20 on Tehran's Kargare Shomali Avenue of a gunshot wound to the heart, fired by a plainclothesman. Buried at Beheshte Zahra's Section 257 the next day.

6. Amir Javadifar, 25, student of industrial management at Qazvin's Azad University. Died on July 9 of a seizure inside a van while being moved from Kahrizak to Evin. Had been blinded by blows to his head and face.

7. Moharram Ghagini Gheshlaghi, 34. Buried in Beheshte Zahra's section 256, row 156, grave #13.

8. Masood Khosravi. Died on June 15 at Azadi Square and is buried at Beheshte Zahra.

9. Abbas Disnad, 40, laborer. Died after being beaten with batons on the head.

10. Ramin Ramezani, 29. Died of internal bleeding in a hospital after being released from detention. Buried at Beheshte Zahra. Section 257, Row 46, Grave #32

11. Mohsen Rohulamini, 25. Died on July 9 after sustaining injuries during torture in detention.

12. Ashkan Sohrabi, 18, IT student at Qazvin University. Died on June 20 at the junction of Rodaki and Sarsabil Avenues in Tehran after being shot by Basijis and other security forces thrice.

13. Amir Hossein Toufanpour, 32. Died on June 19 after being shot thrice in the leg, arm, waist and side. There were visible bruises on his neck and a deep hole on the back of his head which was filled with cotton and a broken arm. His nose seemed to have been broken as well.

14. Saeed Abbasifar Golchini, 24, seller of shoes and purses. Died on June 20 in Tehran after being struck by bullets fired by security forces.

15. Mostafa Ghanyan, graduate student at Tehran University. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms during a raid by security forces. Buried in the courtyard of Imam Reza's shrine on June 18 under tight security.

16. Ali Fathalian. Died on June 20 in front of Lolagar Mosque. Buried in Beheshte Zahra. Section 9, Row 110, Grave #22.

17. Hadi Fallahmanesh, 29, laborer. Died in Tehran and is buried in Beheshte Zahra - section 53.

18. Ahmad Kargar Nejati. Died of torture wounds in the hospital. Buried in Beheshte Zahra - section 213, Row 15, Grave #35.

19. Behzad Mohajer, 47. Died on June 15 of a gunshot wound to the chest. Body kept at Kahrizak detention facility's morgue.

20. Nader Naseri. Died on June 20 at Khosh Avenue in Tehran. Buried in Babol.

21. Ahmad Naeemabadi. Died of a gunshot wound at Azadi Square. Shot fired by IRGC's Ashoura 117 Battalion.

22. Masood Hashemzadeh, 27. Died on June on Shademan Avenue in Tehran of a bullet to the chest which tore through his lungs and caused severe internal and external bleeding. Buried in northern Iran.

23. Mehdi Karami, 17. Died on June 20 at the junction of Janatabad and Kashani avenues after he was badly beaten and his throat was slit by a knife. Body was kept at Payambar Hospital in Ashrafi Isfahani Boulevard.

24. Naser Amirnejad, 25, student of aviation and space technology at Azad Islamic University in Tehran. Died on Mohammad Ali Jinnah Street in Tehran after being sprayed with bullets by Basijis. Body was kept at Payambar Hospital's morgue and was buried in a village close to Yasuj.

25. Mahmood Raeesi Najafi, construction worker. Died on June 28 after being shot by security forces on Azadi Square and beaten badly with batons. Died at home 13 days later.

[The families of deceased protesters below have not gotten in touch with Karroubi's or Mousavi’s campaign offices and are under pressure from the Government to refrain from public acknowledgement of the death, let alone the cause of death, of their loved ones.]

26. Mobina Ehterami. Died on June 15 at Tehran University's dorm. Body was buried in secret without her family's knowledge.

27. Neda Asadi

28. Saeed Esmaeeli Khanbeen, 23. Died of blows to the head.

29. Morad Aghasi

30. Hossein Akbari. Died of blows to the head.

31. Vahed Akbari, 34, laborer. Died on June 20 at Vanak Avenue of a bullet wound to the lower side. Buried at Beheshte Zahra - section 261.

32. Mohsen Entezami

33. Mohsen Imani. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms. Body was secretly buried without his family's knowledge.

34. Fatima Barati. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms. Body was secretly buried without her family's knowledge.

35. Mohammad Hossein Barzegar, 25, laborer. Died on June 17 on Hafte Tir Square in Tehran of a bullet shot to the head. Buried on June 21 in Beheshte Zahra, Section 302.

36. Jafar Barvayeh, lecturer at Chamran University of Ahvaz and candidate for doctoral degree at Tehran University. Died in Baharestan Square in Tehran of a bullet shot to the head. Forensics report that he died of a brain hemorrhage.

37- Yaghoub Barvayeh, graduate student of theatre arts at University of Art and Architecture in Tehran. Died on June 25 of a bullet wound to the head after being shot in front of Lolagar Mosque by Basijis from the roof of the mosque.

38. Soroor Boroomand, 58, died on June 15 on Mohammad Ali Jinnah Avenue in Tehran.

39. Hameed Besharati, 26. Died on June 20 in Tehran after being shot by security forces several times.

40. Farzad Jashni. Died on June 20 in Tehran.

41. Bahman Jenabi, 20, employee of a radiator repair shop. Killed in Tehran.

42. Mohsen Haddadi, 24, computer programmer. Died on June 15 at Nosrat Avenue in Tehran after being shot in the forehead. Buried on June 23 in Beheshte Zahra - section 262.

43. Shalir Khezri. Died on June 16 at Baharestan Square in Tehran.

44. Fatima Rajabpour, 38. Died on June 15 on Mohammad Ali Jinnah Avenue in Tehran.

45. Babak Sepehr, 35, died on June 20 in Tehran after being sprayed with bullets by security forces.

46. Fahimeh Salahshour, 25, high school graduate. Died on June 15 at a hospital of internal bleeding after being hit by batons on the head at Valiasr Square on June 14 in Tehran.

47. Tina Soodi, university student. Died on June 20 at Enghelab Square in Tehran after being shot.

48. Hasan Shapouri

49. Ali Shahedi, 24. Died in the Tehran-Pars police station on June 21. Forensics could not determine the cause of death; however, the family believes he was killed after being struck with batons on the head at the station.

50. Kasra Sharafi. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms. Body was secretly buried without family's knowledge.

51. Kambiz Shoa’ee. Died on June 15 in Tehran University’s dorms. Body was secretly buried without family's knowledge.

52. Davood Sadri, 27, shopkeeper at Salsebil Avenue. Died on June 20 in front of Lolagar Mosque in Tehran after being struck with a bullet in the head.

53. Seyyed Reza Tabatabayee, 30, bachelor's degree in accounting. Died on June 20 on Azerbaijan Avenue in Tehran. Family forcefully sworn to secrecy by security forces and buried on June 24 in Beheshte Zahra - section 259.

54. Vahid Reza Tabatabayee, 29, bachelor's in English. Died on June 24 in Baharestan Square in Tehran of a bullet wound to the head. Buried on June 27 in Beheshte Zahra - section 308.

55. Hossein Tahmasebi, 25. Died on June 15 in Nobahar Avenue in Kermanshah after being attacked and beaten by security forces.

56. Salar Tahmasebi, 27, undergraduate student of trade management in Rasht. Died in Jumhoori Avenue of a bullet to the forehead. Buried on June 23 in Beheshte Zahra - section 254.

57. Meisam Ebadi, 17, worked at a carpet store in Tehran. Died in Sadeghiyeh in Tehran.

58. Abolfazl Abdollahi, 21, graduate student majoring in electrical sciences. Died on June 20 in front of Sharif Industrial University after being shot in the back of the head. Buried on June 23 in Beheshte Zahra - section 248.

59. Hamid Araghi. Died in Azadi Square, Tehran after being shot.

60. Pour Kaveh Ali, 19. Died on June 20 in Tehran.

61. Hossein Alef. Died on June 17 in Isfahan.

62. Reza Fattahi

63. Parisa Kolli, 25, BA in Literature. Died on June 21 in Keshavarz Boulevard in Tehran of a gunshot wound to the neck. Buried on June 24 in Beheshte Zahra - section 259.

64. Mostafa Kiarostami, 22. Died on July 17 of blows to the head with batons in front of Tehran University. Was there to take part in Friday prayers.

65. Mohammad Kamrani, 18. Was beaten badly on Valiasr Square and died of his injuries on July 9 in Mehr Hospital, Tehran.

66. Hamid Maddah Shoorcheh, activist working for Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign headquarters. Died on June 15 in Mashhad shortly after being released of injuries sustained during torture in detention. Forensic experts ruled a brain hemorrhage as the cause of death.

67. Maryam Mehrazin, 24. Died on June 20 in Tehran as a result of gunfire by security forces.

68. Taraneh Mousavi. Died on June 28 after she was arrested in front of Ghoba Mosque. Charred body was found between Karaj and Qazvin.

69. Iman Namazi, undergraduate student of architecture in Tehran University. Died on June 15 in Tehran University's dorms after the attack by security forces and plainclothesmen on the dorms.

70. Mohammad Nikzadi, 22, BS in architecture. Died on June 16 in Vanak Square, Tehran after being shot in the chest. Buried in Beheshte Zahra - section 257.

71. Iman Hashemi, 27, laborer. Died on June 20 on Azadi Avenue, Tehran. Died after being shot in the eye. Buried in Beheshte Zahra - section 259.

72. Milad Yazdanpanah, 30. Died on June 20 in Tehran after being shot by security forces.