The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?

NEW Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

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2020 GMT: One to Watch. The last posting on the Etemade Melli (Saham News) website, a full report on Mehdi Karroubi's Eftar dinner party for the employees of the Etemade Melli newspaper), went up at 1:10 p.m. Tehran time (0840 GMT).

2015 GMT: In the midst of developments, this from Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's address to members of a reformist faction earlier today (1510 GMT): "Power is not the foundation of legitimacy; rather legitimacy is the foundation of power. Some think that by playing with words they can change this."

1945 GMT: I don't think we realised this morning, when we chose the title for the updates, how appropriate the question would be.

Cross-posted from our emergency analysis, "Is This A Defining Showdown?": "Just after 1800 GMT, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested. (We held off posting until this was confirmed in a reliable source.) The only step up from this action is the arrest of leaders such as Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi."

So far no Western media outlet, to our knowledge, has picked up on the story.

1855 GMT: "New" v. Mainstream Media.

Report of raid on Mehdi Karroubi's office on Enduring America: 1340 GMT.

Emergency analysis of raid on Karroubi office on Enduring America: 1415 GMT.

1st report of raid on CNN's website: 1743 GMT.

1845 GMT: Press TV's website has acknowledged the raid on Karroubi's office with an account lifted word-for-word from the report in Parleman News (see 1340 GMT).

1710 GMT: A Revolutionary Guard official has said that the recent comments of IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, claiming that former President Khatami and other reformists seek to "unseat" the regime, are "backed by evidence" given to Iran's judiciary which the IRGC is willing to publish.

1700 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli has expressed his intention to carry on the work of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, whose offices were raided yesterday.

1555 GMT: The family of the late Ayatollah Taleghani, whose memorial ceremony was blocked by the Government for the first time since his death in 1979, have announced an alternative site for the gathering.

1510 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, speaking to reformists, has claimed that the headquarters of the Supreme Leader no longer have any shame before God or people.

1420 GMT: We have posted an emergency analysis, "Is This the Defining Showdown?"

1350 GMT: Reuters has an English-language summary of the raid on the Karroubi offices.

1340 GMT: URGENT Mehdi Karroubi's office has been raided by security forces on the orders of Tehran's chief prosecutor. CDs, documents, videos, and computers have been seized.

The editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli website, Mohammad Davari, has been arrested. Karroubi aide Morteza Alviri was arrested at his home. An Etemade Melli party spokesman said Karroubi had been escorted out of his office by the security forces.

1335 GMT: A source on the National Security Council has told Norooz that President Ahmadinejad ordered yesterday's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners.

1320 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi (pictured) has issued another statement via an interview in Saham News. Following up his weekend comments on the investigation of detainee abuse, he said false accusations, such as the report of an arrest warrant for his son over a financial dispute, are threats to silence him.

Karroubi emphasised that he will not give up defending people’s rights, urging people to join him in the Qods Day demonstration on 18 September.

1235 GMT: Make That a Triple Signal. Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary committee investigating detentinons, has said, "Members of this committee had some criticisms over the conduct of trials of detainees accused of being linked to the recent unrest. One of the points we stressed during the meeting was to immediately release those detainees who did not have big roles in the unrest."

1205 GMT: A Double Signal? Press TV is featuring two articles on post-election conflict. Neither of the developments are new, so it's their timing of their re-appearance that raises eyebrows.

This morning, Press TV reported, from State television, "Iranian authorities say they have launched an investigation into public complaints regarding the post-election unrest, with a focus on charges of prisoner abuse. The Supreme National Security Council has formed a committee to look into the cases of those who sustained losses of any kind after the June 12 presidential elections."

Since a Parliamentary committee was set up weeks ago to consider the allegations, this is far from an unprecedented development. However, the move from the legislature to the Executive, with the NSC's involvement, is at least a symbolic step up. Add to that the specific focus of Press TV's article, which is line with the Supreme Leader's public statements, "The officials are investigating the charges of mistreatment made by a number of detainees who were held at the Kahrizak detention center." (Pay attention also to the highlighting of the death of Mohsen Ruholamini, which prompted so much conservative and principlist fury with the Government.)

Two hours later, Press TV posted the statement of the Governor-General of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, from Fars News: "A panel has been formed in Iran's Supreme National Security Council which is closely looking into events that unfolded in a Tehran University dormitory….The investigation will be seriously conducted to reach a final result."

Previously, Tamaddon has been notable for tough talk against protestors. This statement brings him in line with the position taken by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani within two weeks of the 12 June election.

So are we seeing, 72 hours before the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayers address, a convergence around specific investigations? This would give at least a token acknowledgement of claims brought by the opposition, while at the same time emphasizing the need for "unity" and "observance of the law". It would bring together Ayatollah Khamenei, the Larijanis (Ali and head of judiciary Sadegh), key figures in Parliament and senior clerics, and maybe Hashemi Rafsanjani?

And, if this is the case, has President Ahmadinejad been told?

1105 GMT: Stopping the Gatherings. The Government has withheld permission for the memorial ceremony for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, a key figure in the Revolution who died in 1979. According to Taleghani's daughter, this is the first time in 30 years that a permit has been denied.

The obvious explanation is that the regime, which has cancelled other Ramadan ceremonies including those at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine, is fearful of any occasion where people can gather and express opposition.

1005 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has withdrawn his "replacement" nominations of Fatemeh Aliya as Minister of Education and Ali Zabihi as Minister of Energy. The original nominees were rejected last Thursday.

0950 GMT: It Just Got Interesting. Fars News reports that the Supreme Leader will lead this Friday's prayers in Tehran.

No further details but look for Ayatollah Khamenei to try and pre-empt the Green movement's plans for Qods Days demonstrations the following Friday, possibly in combination with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani. The Supreme Leader will do that by calling for "unity" and, while acknowledging that the Government needs to serve the people, upholding the system.

Two questions: 1) if this is indeed Khamenei's speech, are he and Rafsanjani finding common ground?; 2) will the Supreme Leader cross the line and issue threats against opposition leaders?.

If the answer to 1) is Yes, then we may be seeing an alignment trying to resolve the crisis. If the answer to 2), then the conflict continues.

Meanwhile, the head of Iran's police, Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has warned against demonstrations "politicising" Qods Day. (Big thanks to reader Ali for pointing us to both these stories.)

0915 GMT: Larijani's Manoeuvre. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has positioned himself behind yesterday's call by the Supreme Leader for the Government to heed "benevolent criticism": ''In uncertain situations we should take advantage of Supreme Leader's advice and thoughts''. What may be more interesting is the possibility that he is converging with Hashemi Rafsanjani's call for unity, ''All governments and societies have differences in ideology, strategy and tactics. Prejudgment is a trap for pluralism which should be avoided in current situation."

And, if I read this right, Larijani is calling for the opposition to back down from its challenge to the legitimacy of the Government over detentions and trials: "If we want to solve differences we should all follow the Law even if it may have defects."

0840 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" roundup of Monday's developments is now posted.

0715 GMT: The Detentions Issue. One of the important political dances right now is that between the three-member judiciary panel and Mehdi Karroubi, as he sets out the claims of detainee abuse. We didn't give this justice on Saturday, so are picking up now. Karroubi said:
"I offered [the panel] three documents at [Friday's] meeting. The first was a video statement by the individual who has gone missing because of threats issued by the representative of Judge Saeed Mortazavi. My second document was about the [sexual] assault of a woman. The third was a document about one man who was subjected to various calamities after his arrest and I offered a CD and the medical examiner’s report on him as well. In that session I also offered two verbal reports as well."

One of the [verbal] reports was about Taraneh Mousavi….I told them her family [is so scared] after the incident that they refuse to even let the girl who was with their daughter on that day [when she was taken] into their home anymore… [I told them] that you, as the officials of this country, must visit the family yourselves and find out the truth of matter….Go to Karaj city’s Imam Khomeini Hospital and seek the doctor’s opinion about the injuries on this girl’s body.

The case of Mousavi, raped and killed in detention, has raced around the Internet, with rumours as to who might have been responsible and why the incident has been covered up.

On a wider front, however, this is a political showdown. Karroubi had agreed with the panel not to reveal any details of discussions, but one of the members, Deputy Judiciary Head Ebrahim Raeesi, told the press that Karroubi had not presented any evidence for his accusations. It was then that the reformist cleric broke his silence.

We await the next developments.

0650 GMT: We've spent this morning on a special analysis of President Ahmadinejad's latest political strategy, which seems to consist of shoving around his opponents as "dust" and "contaminants", and the tension that it might have caused within the regime.

That tough approach is evident in two other developing stories. We've got new information and analysis on last night's raid on the offices of the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners, run by Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff. And today the Government is pushing ahead with its public display of strength against the opposition, putting three prominent reformist detainees --- Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati --- on television for a "roundtable" confessing the errors of their political activity. The showpiece is part of the campaign to control discussion and activity at Iranian institutions, as the trio discuss the "promotion of pathology at the University of Western humanities, and the social and political consequences that come from following elites and political activists and Western ideas".