The Latest from Iran (26 September): The False Flag of the Nuke Issue

NEW Iran: The "Die Zeit" Article on Opposition and Change
NEW Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Interview on CNN’s Larry King
Iran's Nuclear Programme: The US State Department Line
Video: Ahmadinejad Interview with Time Magazine
Transcript: Obama and Sarkozy Statements on Iran Nuclear Programme
Iran: Obama’s “Get-Tough” Move for Engagement
Iran: Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and the Multi-Sided Chess Match
The Latest from Iran (25 September): The Nuclear Distraction

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2140 GMT: We've now posted an English translation of the Die Zeit article, with its explosive rumours of significant change in the Iranian system.

2005 GMT: Rouydad carries an explosive story, from an inside source, that the Ministry of Guidance and Culture has created a five-person committee to create and spread disinformation, including the claim of a meeting between billionaire George Soros and former President Mohammad Khatami as part of the "velvet revolution". The committee allegedly includes the head of a news agency, an expert on the Internet, a television presenter, and an intelligence official. Millions of dollars are being devoted to the effort.

1955 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has returned from New York with an upbeat political assessment of his "satisfactory" and "successful" stay in the US. He has emphasised the need for change in the management of the United Nations, including the Security Council. No mention, however, of the nuclear issue.

1925 GMT: Report that activist and Mehdi Karroubi supporter Housein Mahdavi has been arrested in Khoramabad.

1730 GMT: Today's "Velvet Revolution" Showcase. It comes courtesy of the Supreme Leader's Advisor For Military Affairs, Major General Seyed Yahiya Rahim Safavi, who said on Saturday, "The (enemies') soft war is aimed at changing the (Iranian nation's) culture, views, values, national beliefs and belief in values. Soft warfare is a complicated type of political, cultural, information operations launched by the world powers to create favorable changes in the target countries."

1715 GMT: The Wall Street Journal, snarling for a confrontation with Iran, inadvertently exposes the weakness in the dramatic presentation of the second enrichment facility:

"Let's also not forget the boost Iran got in late 2007, when a U.S. national intelligence estimate concluded that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and kept it frozen. The U.S. spy agencies reached this dubious conclusion while apparently knowing about the site near Qom."

Probably for the chest-thumpers at the WSJ is that the conclusion is not dubious at all (see the State Department's defense of it in a separate entry). Even if the second facility had taken in shipments of uranium, which is not alleged even by the US Government, even if high-grade centrifuges had been installed, which is not established, even if those centrifuges had begun enriching uranium, which is not claimed anywhere, that would not establish a direct link with a resumed nuclear weapons program. It would merely establish that Iran now had some quantity of enriched uranium which might or might not be for military rather than civilian purposes.

However, the WSJ's railing do not have to be logical to show the problems for the Obama Administration's strategy. Opponents will now claim that the 2nd enrichment facility shows that all intelligence assessments from 2007 must be thrown out and will put by default the faith-based assertion that Iran is hell-bent on the Bomb and beyond diplomacy.

1650 GMT: The Institute for Science and International Security has posted images "of two possible locations of the gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility under construction near Qom, Iran. Both are tunnel facilities located within military compounds approximately 30-40 kilometers away."

1620 GMT: Just to follow up on the biggest of rumours (see 1400 GMT) for change in the Iranian system, with the five-person committee to replace the Supreme Leader and the replacement of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with Tehran Mayor Qalibaf. I've read the Die Zeit piece, and it reads like rumour, Chinese whispers, and wishful thinking rather than hard information on any plan from Hashemi Rafsanjani or another source.

1600 GMT: The Grand Rafsanjani Plan? While the details of Hashemi Rafsanjani's purported political compromise are in the category of rumour, its existence is verified by the number of politicians and clerics asking for its consideration. Reformist MP Darius Ghanbari has called for "more efforts...to achieve...consensus and a calm atmosphere" and said, "Hashemi has all these features to bring the sides together", although "this will be achieved only when conditions that allow the rebuilding of trust to eliminate extremism and hatred." Another MP has called on Parliament's National Security Commission to act on the lines set out by Rafsanjani's 14 July Friday Prayer speech as the "best solution for an exit from the current situation".

1445 GMT: Not-So-Dramatic Breaking News. Iran's chief official for the nuclear programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, says Tehran will allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the second uranium enrichment facility.

Look for the media to play this up as an important development. It's not. The logical strategy for Iran is to draw out the process of negotiation over access, appearing to be receptive to international demands for inspection while defending sovereignty and political position. That's why Salehi "didn't specify when inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency could visit the site" and said "the timing will be worked out with the U.N. watchdog".

1410 GMT: The Battle Among the Experts. Ayande News Agency has revealed the bitter division in the Assembly of Experts. Hussein Ka'abi criticised Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, who has been prominent in his condemnation of the "illegitimate" Ahmadinejad Government and the brutal suppression of post-election dissent, and started a petition amongst the members of the Assembly for Dastgheib's dismissal. It is claimed that the Supreme Leader rejected the petition.

1405 GMT: Political activist Maysam Roudak was detained on Tuesday. She was previously arrested in September 2007, charged with acting against national security, and then bailed for $50,000.

1400 GMT: Noting the Even More Intriguing Rumour. This morning (0455 GMT) we wrote about the unconfirmed story that Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to bring a political resolution through the intervention of the Expediency Council, which he chairs.

Even that pales, however, before the stunning claims in the German Die Zeit. The scenario is that a new system of "Supreme Leaders" with set terms would replace the current overall Supreme Leader with office for life and, more specifically, that the current Mayor of Tehran, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, would replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President.

We're looking for the original German article, but a Farsi summary is available via Deutsche Welle.

0930 GMT: Nonsense and War Talk. The "analysis" of the Iran in many of today's newspapers is simply awful. The Guardian of London's "Q and A Guide" bluntly informs, "[This] shows Iran has not been telling the truth about its nuclear activities," omitting little points such as Tehran's declaration to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday and the differing interpretations of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The journalist, Ian Black, blithely assures, "It seems unlikely that a revelation of such importance would have been made without rigorous checking of sources." Which sounds good unless you realise that Black's next paragraph, "It is known that two years ago the US managed to penetrate Iranian computer systems," refers to the highly suspect American claim of a magic Iranian laptop, supposedly obtained from a defector, which has yet to be seen by the IAEA.

All of this might be harmless if ludicrous, were it not for the inconvenience that it aids and abets talk of War, War, War. In The Wall Street Journal, Anthony Cordesman, exalted by the US media as a top military expert, explains, "Israel must consider not just whether to proceed with a strike against Iran—but how", and kindly offers his "Iran Attack Plan". And the BBC's flagship radio programme, Today, having just heard from the British Foreign Minister, David Miliband, that diplomacy must be pursued, immediately turned to Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who declared, well, no, the military option should be prepared.

0505 GMT: The Iranian (State) Line. Press TV frames President Ahmadinejad's political strategy, which is to downplay any dispute and offer on the surface an accommodation over the second enrichment facility: "Ahmadinejad: 2nd nuclear site open for inspection". It summarises the President's New York press conference, which was delayed yesterday, and features his stance that Iran is within the law (which we picked up in Friday updates): "According to the IAEA rules, countries must inform the Agency 6 months ahead of the gas injection in their uranium enrichment plants. We have done it 18 months ahead and this should be appreciated not condemned."

0455 GMT: And, if you're not caught up with the "secret nuclear plant", what are the internal developments in Iran? To be honest, in the last 48 hours, all parties have caught breath and assessed their positions. The most intriguing possibility is that Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to seize the initiative by setting up the Expediency Council as the proposer and arbiter of a political settlement. The Council is a different body from the clerical Assembly of Experts, which Rafsanjani also heads: its official function in the Iranian system is to rule in disputes between the Parliament and the Guardian Council, but it works primarily as an advisory body to the Supreme Leader.

At this point, the story is still rumour, but it is prominent in Internet chatter. Our readers offer a useful introduction in their comments on yesterday's updates.

0420 GMT: A "false flag" ship is one that disguises its true origin by sailing under the colours of another country. The parallel for Iran today is a near-hysterical situation in which an issue far removed from the critical questions of the post-election conflict suddenly becomes the primary, and even the sole, criterion by which Tehran is judged.

The "Western" media run headlong, escorted and often led by a Government agency, towards a finish line of the most dramatic and damning tale. The Times of London turns itself into Boys' Own Intelligence Journal, "How secrecy over Iran's Qom nuclear facility was finally blown away".

The New York Times gets closer to the immediate politics in its opening paragraph, "On Tuesday evening in New York, top officials of the world nuclear watchdog agency approached two of President Obama’s senior advisers to deliver the news: Iran had just sent a cryptic letter describing a small “pilot” nuclear facility that the country had never before declared." Then, however, it takes the US Government's bait, substituting supposed anguish and hurt for Washington's balancing of "engagement" and pressure on Tehran (see Chris Emery's analysis, which is far beyond anything in mainstream media this morning), "The Americans were surprised by the letter, but they were angry about what it did not say. American intelligence had come across the hidden tunnel complex years earlier, and the advisers believed the situation was far more ominous than the Iranians were letting on."

CNN, meanwhile, hits a new low in its spiralling coverage of Iran, falling into the Iranian President's own public-relations campaign by putting him on The Larry King Show, which usually devotes itself to interviewing Hollywood celebrities, participants in headline crime stories, or anyone loosely connected with Michael Jackson. Ahmadinejad's far-from-stunning revelation? ""We simply didn't expect President Obama to say something that was baseless."

None of this hyperbole and alarm, fuelled by the US Government's need to put pressure on Tehran before talks begin in Geneva on 1 October, comes close to the complexity of the politics on the uranium enrichment facility near Qom. None of it appreciates what an EA correspondent points out:

Let's hold our horses on this one. The International Atomic Energy Agency has to certify that the plant is not new and that Iran has been working in it for years. Right now there is complete discordance between the Iranian and Western versions of events on this, but both curiously point out to one key factor: no enrichment is happening right now in the Qom installation, and construction is still in progress.

But all of the hyperbole and alarm replaces any consideration of and even attention to the internal developments in Iran.

The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

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1520 GMT: EA's Mr Johnson goes over the Rafsanjani speech, adding to and correcting our earlier analysis.

While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani's call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: "A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems....The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas]."

Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict:  "The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists....All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse."

This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani's strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: "Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation....Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts...so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created....The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law."

And so Rafsanjani's manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: "Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society...The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals....If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law  and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with."

Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report --- it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not  Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.

1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members' turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.

1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:

As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the "holy and glorious presence" of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to "imperialists" and their "psychological warfare" trying to reduce Iran to "passivity" ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the "unity of our country".

Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the "West" in talks on Iran's nuclear question. And the former President's reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.

But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there's the rub: there's no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience --- whatever their position on and in the issue --- in suspense.

1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA's Chris Emery adds his own take:

I think there are some statistical anomalies with the poll and major methodological problems- there is a perception that the government routinely tap phones and this will affect people's responses to some degree. There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%).

In many ways its greatest signficance lies in how it has been read. Those, especially in the West, who cry foul on the methodology will be to some degree influenced by their refusal to accept the unpalatable truth that Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular amongst millions of Iranians. On the other hand, I would never use this poll as a litmus test for support within either camp. The situation is simply far more complicated and the dynamics of the current power struggles cannot be accurately drawn out from this poll.

In sum, it is more interesting to watch how it is kicked around as a political football than as a genuine indicator of the relative strength of either Ahmadinejad or the Green's position.

0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: "Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation."

0915 GMT: The "Western" media are running with "news" that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that "his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it".

This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow's coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.

Of course, it's not like Mahmoud isn't helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.



0415 GMT: All very quiet in Iran in the last 24 hours, apart from some rumblings over the position of Imam Khomenei's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomenei (see yesterday's updates). The regime will roll out a two-day setpiece ,with the presentation of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati in a televised "roundtable" to discuss how the velvet revolution has been pursued against Iran. And Press TV has an intriguing story, given President Ahmadinejad's attempts to ensure a "proper" bureaucracy responding to his wishes, of "the first of the post-presidential-election diplomatic appointments of the Ahmadinejad government...being implemented with new ambassadors lined up for European countries".

But it appears that we are in the midst of a 72-hour diversion with President Ahmadinejad presenting himself as undisputed leader in front of the United Nations General Assembly. He will speak at about 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) on Wednesday. This will get sneers and denunciations from most of the "Western" media, but mainly over his references to Israel and possibly Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian state media will hail the pride of the nation in their President on the world stage.

Opposition activists are pinning hopes on a show of protest, with Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page laying out a schedule of events. At the risk of being a jaded cynic, I'm not sure there is enough attention to the Iran issue in the US now to generate a high-profile demonstration, at least on the Iranian internal issue. (There will undoubtedly be protests from pro-Israel groups, but I'm not sure how this will intersect with the Green wave.)

All this said, there is one prominent wild card in the deck. Iran's Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, holds its regular (but delayed) meeting today. Will the former President use the occasion to make his challenge, supported by other members, to the current regime? Or will he maintain his cautious line of vocal support for the Supreme Leader but no direct attention to the Ahmadinejad Government? And what will be the dynamic beyond Rafsanjani?

Iran: Welcoming Obama's Missile Defense Plan, Signalling to Moscow

The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

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On Monday, Hassan Qashqavi, spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, welcomed the Obama Administration's declaration that it was abandoning plans to base missile defence in Eastern Europe:

"The Islamic Republic of Iran welcomes any act or plan which results in the removal of weapons of mass destruction throughout the world, and, considers the removal of nuclear and other destructive weapons by the big powers as a service to world peace and security, if it is real and true."

However, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has reiterated that Iran is still the main threat justifying the deployment plan of defense missile system. Indeed, she said that Washington was going to deploy missiles sooner than the Bush Administration planned to do so, albeit from ships rather than the sites in Poland and the Czech Republic.

So, what does Teheran's statement mean, especially after Moscow's recent carrot/stick policy, offing diplomatic protection against any international sanctions and military support in return for political influence in Iran? It appears to be a clever move to keep attention on a US-Russian rivalry, with Iran as an excuse rather than a cause for missile defence. Qashqavi claimed, "Adopting the claim of a missile threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran was an opportunistic and domination-seeking US scam with political aims." He added:

From the beginning, the Islamic Republic of Iran has seen the basing of the missile system in Eastern Europe as part of the missile [force] rivalries between Russia and the US, and the expansion of the penetration of extra-regional security areas and a continuation of the penetration of the big powers in the Central European countries.

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Qods Day: The Discussion Continues
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The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day
NEW Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

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2200 GMT: We took a break tonight to recuperate from the drama of Friday. To be honest, almost all the chatter is a recycling of the events and images of Qods Day.

There are intriguing developments surrounding the clerical opposition to the Government. Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was forced to cancel an important annual prayer.

The Green Movement is highlighting the possibility that marjas, the highest-ranking senior clerics, will not declare that Ramadan has ended Sunday and can be celebrated with the feast of Eid al-Fitr. In particular, it is noted that the websites of Ayatollah Montazeri and of Ayatollah Sane'i have not yet declared that the Holy Month is over.

Ayatollahs Mousavi-Ardebili, Safi-Golpaygani, and Bayat-Zanjani are also declaring that they have not seen the crescent of the moon. And now Hojatoleslam Taghdiri, the head of the crescent observation committee of  Tehran Province, has said that there is no way that the crescent can be observed tonight, permitting Eid al-Fitr to proceed tomorrow.

The statements are significant because they defy the declaration of the Supreme Leader that Sunday is the end of Ramadan holiday.

1540 GMT: In his first statement after Qods Day, Mehdi Karroubi has told medical faculty of the great opportunity "to expose in court atrocities which would have made the Shah look good".

1250 GMT: The Quds Day Football Mystery (continued). Two readers continue the tireless effort to sort out what happened with last night's Iranian state TV broadcast of the Esteghlal-Estell Azin match (video in separate entry and see 0740 GMT). Both note that the game was re-broadcast, after the "problems" with live transmission. One notes, "It was in colour and not in black and white as reported. There were many Esteghlal fans in the stadium but almost all of them came in blue. You could see glimpses of green colour among them, but, as I said, about 95% of the came in blue. I also couldn't hear any opposition slogans during the game, to be honest."

The other reader has the possible answer: "They started over from the beginning of the match, in color, with the sound edited from another match (so Green chants could not be heard). Also they cut away several times to another camera on the sideline for showing reaction shots of the bench/coaches, even though they said there was only one camera in Azadi Stadium."

1240 GMT: Maryam at Keeping the Change has taken on the task of sifting through the information to establish "whether Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Mohammad Khatami...took part in the Qods Day demonstrations". Her thoughtful but provocative assessment:

Mousavi and Rafsanjani could have been forced to appear in the protests against their wills or may have been given the choice to either stay away from the demonstrations or attend the government-sponsored rallies. The men may have calculated that failing to appear at the marches would be more damaging than participating in the pro-government demonstrations....The utilitarian calculations of the two men and the propaganda potential of these images aside, the presence of Mousavi, in particular, at the pro-government rally may prove to have undermined his "Opposition"-credentials, giving the impression (whether true or misleading) that he has become less assertive, more prone to succumb to government pressure, and/or is in a weakened position vis vis the government. As for Rafsanjani, a similar analysis may be appropriate, though his historical tendency to walk a fine line between competing interest groups militates against rushing to judgment on his motivations.

1130 GMT: Definitely a lull after the storm of events. We've now completed and posted the analyses of Mr Smith, "What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?", and of Scott Lucas, "Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day". We've also got a new account from a participant in the demonstration and a new video thread as well as yesterday's video collection.

0830 GMT: Contrary to our fears at the end of yesterday, it appears that the regime's restrictions on the Internet were more to stifle the Qods Day protests than as a forerunner of an even more intense crackdown of arrests. Some Internet services have been restored in Iran.

0820 GMT: Three of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri, arrested yesterday, have been released. Three of his grandchildren remain in detention.

0740 GMT: The Qods Day Football Match. Our quirkiest story of the day, complete with video, gets even better. The latest account is that state television's coverage was delayed and limited to one black-and-white camera not because of the fears of Green symbols and chants but because the regime's efforts to limit communications hindered IRIB's technical systems. (I think the Blue team won 2-0 but I can't tell which one was Blue.)

0600 GMT: To be honest, this is a holding entry. For the first time in 24 hours, it is possible to draw breath and take a reflective step back, as the news from Iran is slow this morning, in part because of the Government's attempts to close down information on the scale of its setback yesterday, more because everyone is trying to take in exactly what happened on Qods Day.

The regime will try to regain its balance today. Press TV has a lovely example. Its story just before I went to bed was "Iran's Opposition Marches on Qods Day", a recognition that "supporters of Iran's opposition movement...joined the major annual commemorative rally showing their loyalty to their leaders". This morning the website is back on the proper line: "Iranians March in Solidary with Palestinians".

But, barring a swift crackdown by the Government, with a wave of high-profile arrests, the question of initiative will be with the opposition. What can the leaders and the Green Wave do with the opportunity offered by the tens of thousands who, after all that has been thrown at protest to make it go away, "won" with their defiance --- in anger, sadness, hope, and more than a bit of humour --- yesterday?

That's what EA staff will work on now. The first part of our opening analysis is now posted.

The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

NEW Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
UPDATED Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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2100 GMT: This summer's proposed privatisation of Iran Telecom has had everything from Russian involvement to Revolutionary Guard manoeuvring, so make what you will of this story from Press TV: "Iran has postponed the planned flotation of the country's Telecommunications Company, originally scheduled for Wednesday, in the Tehran Stock Exchange."

1730 GMT: Battle Renewed? From this morning's analysis: "One of [the challengers], conservative and principlist critics of the Government, has remained silent."

Well, we need to make a minor amendment. Sniping has resumed over President Ahmadinejad's choice of First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. Yesterday prominent conservative MP Ali Motahhari said the appointment of Rahimi signalled "bad taste" and "a tendency to quarrel" by Ahmadinejad. Rahimi's academic credentials presented "the same problems" as the ones possessed by former Minister of the Interior, Ali Kordan, who was forced to resign for falsely claiming a doctorate from Oxford University.

Today MP Ahmad Tavakoli echoed, "Rahimi’s degree is fake and similar to Kordan’s.” He added, “Appointing someone who has a record of lying and abusing power who can potentially substitute for the president is regrettable.”

So it is this a re-run of Ahmadinejad's failed effort in July to appoint Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as First Vice President, an affair which damaged the President for a few weeks until he was able to push through his Cabinet choices?

1700 GMT: Khatami's In. An official from Mohammad Khatami's office says that the former President invites all Iranians to participate in Qods Day ceremonies "to protest the occupation of Palestine and the oppression of Palestinians".

1440 GMT: Meanwhile, HomyLafayette's blog has a useful summary of the still-uncertain situation regarding Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership/non-leadership of Qods Day Friday prayers. in contrast to our own reading that the regime has now blocked the former President's appearance, the blog still says, "Will he or won't he?", before concluding, "For the protesters who aim to demonstrate in huge numbers on Friday, the answer may well turn out to be irrelevant."

1430 GMT: Qods Day Latest. The story of Mir Hossein Mousavi's participation (1120 GMT) is firming up. Mousavi's website Kaleme, supported by Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page, announces, "Following many questions regarding the Qods Day rally, the office of Mir Hossein Mousavi has announced that Mousavi will attend the rally side-by-side with the people of Iran, as this is the day to support the innocent and oppressed."

The Internet is buzzing with the story that Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami will also be present at the gathering. No sign yet, however, of a joint statement amongst the three leaders.

1320 GMT: No Carrot, Just Stick. Ten minutes after reporting the release of Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam, we get news that Karroubi advisor Fayez Zahad has been arrested.

1315 GMT: Those Pesky Clerics. The Iranian Labour News Agency reports that Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has had a "dialogue" with Grand Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili on on the "issues and current events in the country".

It's this cute phrase, however, that highlights the significance of the discussion: "It must be pointed out during a similar meeting last week between several senior clerics was held." That "similar meeting" led to a letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government.

1310 GMT: Stick. Carrot. Report that Javad Imam, Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign manager, has been released on bail after three months in detention.

1305 GMT: The Regime Blocks Rafsanjani. The urgent announcement on the Islamic Republic News Agency says, from "an informed source", that Hashemi Rafsanjani's appearance at Qods Day Friday prayers has been "cancelled".  A replacement will be named tomorrow.

Note "cancelled". Rafsanjani did not withdraw; the regime has decided that he will not be leading because, according to the informed source, his presence might bring unwanted political activity.

This explains the confusion this morning. The Government was obviously making its replacement plan, with Ahmad Khatami leading on Friday, but was not ready to make its move when Press TV/Fars leaked the news.

1300 GMT: Drawing the Line. Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has warned that the arrests of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, would be “an unrecoverable mistake”. Dastgheib said the opposition "do not want to and cannot threaten” and “we neither have military nor ability to deal with trained officers, tear gas and guns”; however, people have the right to express their anger and arresting the reformist leaders “will have unfortunate consequences for everyone”.

1120 GMT: Mousavi's In. The Green movement's website Mowj-e-Sabz has announced that Mir Hossein Mousavi will attend the demonstrations on Friday for Qods Day. Mousavi will also be issuing a statements urging his followers to join.

1100 GMT: After the rush of news and rumour this morning, a quiet phase. Fars has not updated its claim that Ahmad Khatami will lead this Friday's prayers.

Press TV, meanwhile, wins the award for today's ambiguous article, "Rafsanjani Urges Epic Turnout for Qods Day", avoiding any reference to internal matters for the motive "to foil world powers' plot to sow discord among Muslims".

0830 GMT: Or Maybe Not. Tabnak claims that the head of the Friday Prayers Committee has denied that Ahmad Khatami has been selected as the speaker on Qods Day.

Personally, I think this is just embarrassment that the news has leaked. Expect Khatami to be confirmed in a few hours.

0820 GMT: Your Qods Day Friday Prayer Leader is.... Ahmad Khatami. Press TV has just reported this news, which is reprinted by Fars.

0815 GMT: It is No Longer Quiet. Fasten your seatbelts, folks, because this ride just got faster. Fars News reports that President Ahmadinejad will introduce the Friday Prayers speaker on Qods Day.

0755 GMT: Confession --- this is a "holding" entry, as very little has emerged this morning after yesterday's rush of developments. We've tried to bring everything together in a new analysis, "Checking the Scorecard of Opposition".

We also have an updated, complete translation of Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the Iranian people (thanks to Evan Siegel) and last night's statement by Hashemi Rafsanjani.