The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

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NEW Text: Mousavi Statement to His Followers (28 September)
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Latest Iran Video: The Universities Protest (28 September)

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2100 GMT: We have posted an emergency update of our story on the National Unity Plan. To be blunt, this has turned into a giant mystery which we can lay out but not solve this evening, and there are likely to be further developments (even though it is early morning in Tehran) for our first update on Wednesday.

1700 GMT: We've split off our snap analysis updates on the National Unity Plan into a separate entry.

1545 GMT: A steady stream of reports indicate there are smaller but still significant gatherings of demonstrators in Tehran today. This is in addition to the sizable protest at Sharif University.

1455 GMT: Fars News have just published a copy of the National Unity Plan. We'll be back within the hour with an analysis.

1430 GMT: Back from a teaching break to find tension growing over the privatisation of Iran's state telecommunications company, with 51 percent going to a consortium linked to the Revolutionary Guard. It is reported that the Telecommunications Trade Council will review the deal, with the possibility of cancelling it because of concerns over a "monopoly".

1100 GMT: I sense a debate emerging, given our readers' comments, over the latest move of Mehdi Karroubi with his letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. Tehran Bureau takes the line that this is a Karroubi criticism, rather than a plan worked out with the former President:

1) Karroubi criticises Rafsanjani for his failure to launch an investigation into the election during his chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts session;

2) Karroubi criticises Rafsanjani for being absent during the final meeting, with its declaration praising the Supreme Leader and framing the events after the election as riots and a conspiracy;

3) Karroubi criticizes Rafsanjani for not asking the Assembly to investigate how the military is taking control of the economy, as in the recent purchase of a 51% share in Iran's state telecommunications firm;

4) Karroubi criticizes Rafsanjani for not calling on the Assembly to review Iran's foreign policy.

0930 GMT: We've just posted video from today's demonstration at Sharif University. It is reported that Minister of Science Kamran Daneshjoo was prevented from reaching the Central Library.

0905 GMT: Tabnak reports that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has distanced himself from his brother Mohammad Javad Larijani, a high-level official in the Judiciary, after the latter's criticism of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mohammad Khatami.

0900 GMT: It Wasn't Just Tehran. An account has been posted of University demonstrations on Monday in Shiraz.

0835 GMT: President candidate Mohsen Rezaei has made a significant intervention with a call for a "national election commission independent of the three branches of Government".

Rezaei's proposal, building upon earlier criticism of the Guardian Council for its handling of the Presidential vote, presents a political challenge to President Ahmadinejad moving beyond a simple "reform" of the system. His interview with Ayande News is the closest he has come to alleging electoral fraud, and he is critical of a number of individuals.

0740 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Monday statement to his followers: "Qods Day showed that [our] network is like a toddler who is growing incredibly quickly."

0725 GMT: Parleman News has now posted a summary report of yesterday's student demonstrations.

0715 GMT: Fars News tries to pour cold water on the Rafsanjani plan for a political settlement, featuring the comments of a "hard-line" member of Parliament, Ranjbarzadeh, that the plan is unacceptable because it gives concessions to the losers of the election.

0625 GMT: Iran's Nuclear Offer. The head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, has laid out Tehran's line in an interview with Press TV. Iran "will soon inform the International Atomic Energy Agency of a timetable for inspection". The plant will produce enriched uranium of up to 5 percent, consistent with a civilian nuclear energy programme, and it is being constructed within the framework of the IAEA regulations. Salehi emphasised, "It is against our tenets, it is against our religion to produce, use, hold or have nuclear weapons or arsenal. How can we more clearly state our position? Since 1974 we have been saying this."

It is 48 hours until Iran's meeting with the "5+1" powers in Geneva.

0555 GMT: Karroubi's second letter to Rafsanjani (0535 GMT) takes on a added sense of urgency because of the Government's decimation of  websites connected with Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. The Etemade Melli/Saham News site, the Kalemeh site (which had replaced Mousavi's hacked Ghalam News site), and Tagheer are all down. Mowj-e-Sabz, however, is still up, featuring Mousavi's latest statement cautioning the movement against violence.

0535 GMT: A couple of interesting shifts within the Establishment. The long-anticipated change at the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has been made, with Ezatullah Zarghami replaced by Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli. What is more interesting is the framing of the move, with Zarghami blamed for "the poor performance of the IRIB" during and after the election. Meanwhile, Fazli is portrayed as an ally of the Larijani brothers and a critic of President Ahmadinejad.

Contrary to our update yesterday, university classes have not been suspended for seven days because of "swine flu" (or Monday's demonstrations). The headline in Mehr exaggerated the story, which was simply that provisions were in place to order a suspension if fears of flu arose. Still, the

But the most important development by far came from the opposition. While Mir Hossein Mousavi, considering his next move, tried to reassure his followers that Qods Days was a success, Mehdi Karroubi may have taken the bull by the horns (or, in this case, the shark by the gills). His second letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani was not quite, "Are you with us or against us?", but it has asked the former President to come forth on the plan circulated at the Assembly of Experts. Put bluntly, Karroubi wants to know if the rumoured "political resolution" will take heed of opposition demands or sell out the protestors.

Iran: English Text of Dastgheib Letter to Assembly of Experts (22 September)

The Latest from Iran (27 September): Is There a Compromise Brewing?

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It is slowly becoming clear that last week's Assembly of Experts meeting was the setting for an unprecedented level of dispute and politics. By the end of the deliberations, Ayatollah Ka'abi was circulating a petition for the expulsion of Ayatollah Dastgheib, as Hashemi Rafsanjani tactfully absented himself.

This is the Dastgheib letter (translation by Khordaad 88) demanding the Assembly take over the administration of the Constitution, criticising the suppression of dissent by the regime, and calling for an invitation to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami to address the clerics:

In the name of the Great God,

To Honorable members of the Assembly of Experts of Supreme Leadership

May I recall several points; I hope that they would be beneficial.

1) Notes on the constitution: We are all aware that our constitution has no contradiction with Quran and the [Islamic] tradition. It is devised by the prominent clerics and the right intellectuals who have had the constitution considered by the Imam of nation (may love and mercy of God be upon him.)

But who is the guardian of this constitution? Can anybody other than the experts assume this role? Who is responsible for investigating devastations from the constitutions and who should be hold responsible for such deviations? Only the Experts can assume that role. But now why is it that when it becomes necessary to meet so that the experts could investigate deviancies from the constitution, the experts either find themselves incapable to meet or do not meet at all; even the president of the assembly who has been elected with more than 50 votes (out of 80) could not call for a meeting. Is not this just a complete ignorance on part of the Guardian Council towards the basic fundamentals of the constitution? Including the way members of the Guardian council are selected? An issue that I have suggested that the confirmations from two prominent scholars of Qom should be enough [for the selection for the members of the council] but not body paid attention. It would have been great if the honorable Ayatollah Rafsanjani had followed up so that today we wouldn’t have this problem and so many questions and concerns wouldn’t have been left without sufficient answers. People are aware that the fundamentals of Guardianship of the Islamic Juror [velayat-e-faqih] are in the constitution and they agree with it. If the constitution in not acted upon however, the fundamentals, in articles 5 and 110, will not be acted upon either.

2) Issue of desecrating Imam (Khomeini’s) loyal supporters who have put their wealth, dignities and lives for the continuation of the Islamic Republic for years: This desecration started four years ago until recently when IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran broadcast – state TV.) Prominent figures like Ayatollah Rafsanjani , Hojataleslami Karoubi, and the sires Mr. Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi have been berated so significantly that cries of friends of the revolution and laughter of its enemies have been heard all over. Is the drama that unfolded legal? Was it based on constitution and derived from it? If no, why did all the Experts [here] kept their silence? Is it enough to sit down and grieve?

3) Why don’t we see the suspicious hands of Hojattieh [a Shia organisation formed in 1953 opposing the Baha'i religion, Sunni Islam, and the system of velayat-e-faqih] that the great Imam saw it as a threat to the revolution – behind the scenes? Who have jumped over the three branches of power, the parliament, the judiciary and the executive?

Why doesn’t any one take responsibility for all those illegalities? Why is it that the call for justice is answered with the military forces? Is this anything other than the existence of foreigners behind the scenes?

We had great religious scholars like Sheikh Morteza Ansari, Mirza Shirazi, Seyedna-Al-Esfahani, Seyedna-Al-Yazdi and the like. None of them ever thought to devastate the society so that they can provide the context for the Coming [of Imam Mahdi].

4) What is this situation that has overcome our society, and even the parliament? Whenever anyone of an opinion, a Marja, or a scholar makes a criticism, there some that, in support of a specific group, prepare themselves to remove that person from the scenes. All just so that some could be relieved and satisfied.

5) The Experts are responsible for protecting the Islamic ordinances and the belief of people in Quran and the tradition of the prophet (May peace be upon him) and his immaculate kin. This important responsibility is not fulfilled in the current events and unfortunately the efforts of the Islamic scholars have decreased.

6) In the end, I would like to say that it is still not late to ask from this assembly and the honorable speaker to invite Mr. Mousavi, Mr. Khatami and Mr. Karoubi to say what they want to say. Do not assume that everything has ended. People have faith in you.

In other words, concealing the distrust of some part of the society and neglecting them is unfair; for instance, the objection of the Islamic scholars and professors of universities and the rest. It is important to lessen this distrust to a minimum. Such that, if it is not possible to invite Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi to this assembly the State TV invites them so that they would express their objections. If that is not possible either, they can do so through the Assembly of Expert’s website. So that the members of the Assembly can express their opinions on whether there has been a breach of the Constitution or not.

Seyed Ali-Mohamad Dastgheib
September 22, 2009

Iran: The "Die Zeit" Article on Opposition and Change

The Latest from Iran (27 September): Is There a Compromise Brewing?
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For days, there has been a buzz about an article in the German newspaper Die Zeit. Most of it is a summary profile of the opposition in Iran, but deep in the article, there is the claim of "preparations for a new government", including "a group of five to eight clerics" on fixed terms to replace the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad's resignation in favour of Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. The translation is by Paleene on the Anonymous Iran site:


The Green is not fading out

Protest of the mothers and planning for the Day X: How the Iranian opposition organizes and continues to fight.

BY CHARLOTTE WIEDEMANN

In a live broadcast on Iranian state television a mullah gives spiritual advice. An in-caller is talking about her marital problems, then she suddenly says: "Coincidentally, my husband has the same name as our newly elected president, Mir Hussein Mousavi," The moderator silences, the program is interrupted.

On money you will nowadays often find a green victory sign or the words "Down with the dictatorship”. Or a thumbnail portrait of Neda, the best known dead from the unrest in the days after the election in June. The print works give a professional impression, instructions circulate on the internet.

A football match in Isfahan, many spectators wearing green. The television cameras are trying to avoid these images. However, Green is the colour of the football club in Isfahan; now the club is requested to find a different colour.

The movement for democracy is visible in Iran, despite of all repression, torture and show trials. It is not strong enough to stop the Ahmadinejad government. But it is strong enough to keep the country in tension. Because meetings are banned, official occasions are subverted, eg. last Friday: During the anti‐Israel Quds rallies tens of thousands held their fingers up forming the V‐sign, demanded the release of imprisoned reformers. On this day, an experience from June repeated and changed the psychology of society: It is possible to take to the streets and defy prohibitions. It is dangerous but possible.
Another hidden source of energy is feeding the green movement; it has conciliated generations in families, bridging the gap between the old, who revolted 30 years ago, and the young, suffering from the outcomes today. Thus, sons started talking with their fathers again.

Every Saturday afternoon, the mothers of the killed protestors gather silently in Tehran's Laleh Park, all dressed in black . Other women surround them in silent solidarity. On a list of 72 dead, who are known by name, there are also workers, shoe salesmen, small employees. How the battle lines harden can be observed by the violation of previously existing taboos. Mohammad Khatami, the ex‐president, was pushed to the ground last Friday, his black turban torn down. In the first place, the usually moderate Khatami had accused the regime of "fascist" methods.

There is almost no way back after such actions and words. The events in Iran roll forward with a tenacious implacability. But where to? And can anyone control this process?

The young look forward to the great turning point, the elders are afraid of the chaos

The young, the students whose creativity influenced the aesthetics of the movement, still burn for the hope of something great to happen, a radical change ‐ in the system as in their lives. More prudent Iranians fear the power vacuum of a regime falling apart rapidly.

The 68‐year‐old Mir Hussein Mousavi, a candidate in June, remains the figurehead for all sides; but it is the width of the movement which makes him virtually incapable of acting. Coming from the system himself, the former prime minister wants to win as many of Ahmadinejad's conservative opponents as possible. For the moderates within the nomenklatura, Mousavi offers a great advantage, an insider explaine: "You know, he might take away their power, but not their lives.” But at the same time Mousavi has to appear unyielding, if he doesn’t want to lose the support of the young, and of the modern middle classes.

On the street outside his home, the regime has installed surveillance cameras. When Mousavi leaves home, a double cordon accompanies him: his own people and a troop of the Revolutionary Guard. The danger of being arrested is become greater for the leading group, so earlier plans for founding a party or a mass organization were discarded. The movement for democracy is to expand as a "network" which can’t be banned.

“Everyone appreciating the Iranian and Islamic identity of the country as a value and the constitution as the fundament for action is welcome "said Alireza Beheshti, a close adviser Mousavi. “The framework of the Islamic Republic should remain, but with corrections”, can be heard in Mousavi’s vicinity. Especially the civil rights under the constitution should show to advantage, including freedom of expression and freedom of assembly.

In his statements "to the people of Iran”, which Mousavi only can send out on the internet, he calls for: a reform of the electoral law, press freedom, the licensing of private radio and television stations, a law prohibiting the military to intervene in economics and politics, the release of political prisoners and the penalisation of atrocities in the prisons. In Tehran, it is said that along with this minimum catalogue subject-specific sections have begun "with the preparations for a new government". Members of the current administration as well as Iranians living abroad are said to be involved in these groups.

Replacing the powerful revolutionary leader, a group of five to eight clerics should directly be elected by the people for a limited period of time. They should represent a religious pluralism equivalent to the freedom of choice in Shiite everyday life, where believers are free to choose the teachings of a scholar they want to follow. In future, nobody should be allowed to rely on divine authority. Mousavi: "Nobody has the right to say: How I look at the Islam is the one and only valid way."

This will be no quick go. Sustained pressure and a progressive wearing down of Ahmadinejad’s regime could force him to resign over the medium term, that is the hope. Mousavi does not insist in replacing him. To gain time for the elucidation of the population, an intermediate solution might be necessary. This could look like this: Ahmadinejad resigns in favour of the Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. The moderate, popular conservative had recognized the width of the People's Movement in June, when he estimated the demonstrators to be in the three millions.

Mousavi seems to be aware of being severly influenced by three decades of Islamic Republic, so not to be able to represent Iran's future. As a strict Muslim, he constantly would struggle inwardly to meet the youth’s demand of a liberalized lifestyle. Iranians drinking alcohol should have a place in the movement ‐ but Mousavi does not want to sit down at a table where the wine is drunk.

Mehdi Karroubi, the second reform candidate, is acting much more aggressive. In recent weeks, the fine-boned clergyman was the real challenger of the regime. He published that men and women were raped in detention ‐ which has deeply shaken many Iranians, even the more simple, religious people in Ahmadinejad's clientele. Karroubi wouldn’t make a leader who is appealing the masses, but he has made the cracks in the system visible.

Mousavi is resembling the figure of the king in chess: small moves, in case of danger retreat, always covered by his men. It is not cowardice. His fellow campaigners assume the movement to slide into the underground, to radicalize and to narrow dangerously, if Mussawi is detained. He sees himself as someone who can open an unbloody way to change. But then the people have to decide which system they want to live in.

For the first time since the Iranian revolution of 1979, the Iranian opposition abroad has found a common language with the forces of change within the country. This opens up options that were unthinkable only recently. In the case Mousavi and Karroubi are arrested, the leadership of the Green movement would automatically be taken over abroad. Soon a statement will be released in Tehran, saying a five‐member committee in the diaspora ‐ the names are not disclosed ‐ is authorized to replace the leadership in case needed. The symbolic gesture says a lot in a country where the fear of foreign agents is almost obsessive. And Mousavi signals the regime: Look out! If you arrested me, you obstruct the peaceful path to change.

In the diaspora, former bitter enemies have reconciled. The monarchists are relegated to irrelevance, while the advocates of a secular republic criticize Mousavi only mutedly as for the time being. Several prominent heads of the reformers are currently in the West, among them the former Culture Minister Ataollah Mohajerani in London, the film director Mohsen Makhmalbaf in Paris, and reform theologian Mohsen Kadivar in the US.

Kadivar, currently teaching at Duke University, appealed to "the Iranian bourgeoisie" to provide funds for a new, independent national television. "The cost of a green medium have to be borne by Iranian investors." The Iranian women are requested to donate their jewels as a patriotic gesture. Free, uncensored and genuine Iranian Radio and satellite television: That's what currently is worked for in four countries. In Amsterdam, Mehdi Jami as a former head of the Farsi-speaking Radio Zamaneh has a lot of experience with bloggers in Iran. Now he wants to establish citizen journalism as a new generation of broadcasting, giving the young Iranians, who constantly provide their clandestine videos on YouTube, a national platform.

Thus, networking, making various voices audible and being virtual, is the strength of the green movement ‐ and its weakness. It lacks a clearly audible voice, which eg comments on the resuming nuclear negotiations between Iran and the international community, beginning 1 Oct. Suspicion about Ahmadinejad buying legitimacy abroad which he is denied at home is rampant even among those who want the dialogue, basically. In Mousavi’s vicinity they say that "what ever is agreed now has no validity until it has been reviewed by a legitimate, new government of Iran." Mousavi does not want to seek confrontation in this highly sensitive issue.

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Complementing our reading of the dynamic between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, Pedestrian summarises the post of blogger Agh Bahman. Bahman also adds useful thoughts on the positions of Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, and Mohammad Khatami:


Everyone has been criticizing Rafsanjani and Hassan Khomeini for showing up at the Fetr prayer yesterday, and I just didn’t think the criticism was founded. We’ve had very few “real” politicians in our recent history, people willing to bend and compromise and adapt to circumstances. And I think Hashemi Rafsanjani, for all his shortcomings, is of this rare breed. Agh Bahman captures it perfectly (this is a summary of his post):

What got the most attention in yesterday’s prayer was the presence of Rafsanjani and Hassan Khomeini, and after them, Nateq Nouri in line behind the leader and beside Ahmadinejad. Many went so far as to interpret this as Rafsanjani’s betrayal of the people’s movement. When I got up and heard the news, I too was surprised. But when I thought a little more, my opinion changed completely. If you felt like me, read this, maybe your opinion will change too.

The Fetr prayer is one of the few state events which practically all high officials attend. Personally, I don’t remember any other even in which all officials participate. I think not showing up at Fetr prayer is like saying you don’t want to pray behind the leader. Did Rafsanjani do anything in the past three months that meant this remotely, so that now, showing up in the prayer is surprising?

In the past three months, Rafsanjani  did not attend two events which he was expected to attend: the two inauguration ceremonies. Both of these events had to do with Ahmadinejad and giving legitimacy to his government and this Rafsanjani did not want to do. Notice, just a few days after those ceremonies, he went to the goodbye and welcoming ceremonies for Shahroudi and Sadeq Larijani, the previous and current head of the judiciary. Probably one reason for his attendance was to show his respect to Shahroudi, but in any case, the judiciary head is appointed by the leader, and if Rafsanjani had reached a point where he wasn’t willing to pray behind the leader, he shouldn’t have showed up there either. And of course, Rafsanjani did not attend the two Friday prayers led by the leader, which was natural. From what I remember, unless Rafsanjani was prayer leader, he never attended the prayer  no matter who was leading. [notice, Rafsanjani sees himself, or at least used to see himself, as man #2. So just as the leader is not willing to pray behind anyone, and thus never shows up, neither does Rafsanjani].

Of course Rafsanjani did something else yesterday which didn’t get anyone’s attention and that was his absence in the leader’s meeting with the officials which takes place every year after the Fetr prayers in the leader’s beyt [the religious center adjacent to the leader’s home I think, or since “beyt” means “home” in Arabic, it’s supposed to be adjacent to his home, as was Khomeini’s, even if it isn’t.] From the photos we have of yesterday’s meeting, only the heads of the three branches of government are sitting behind the leader and Rafsanjani is very noticeably absent.

I went and found the photos from previous years. In the last four years, Rafsanjani was only missing in 2005. He was there last year and the year before that. I think by not going, he’s sending a message to the leader that he’s only willing to participate in events so far as he is formally obligated and no more. For instance, in a few days when the annual meeting of the Assembly of Experts with the leader takes place, I think Rafsanjani will go, and will sit beside the leader.

And now for Seyed Hassan Khomeini

I think Hasan Khomeini has a similar circumstance [as Rafsanjani]. He was in the first line of prayer every year at Fetr. In the past three months, he’s done nothing and said nothing which would mean that he’s turning his back on the leader. Khomeini showed his complaint out in the opinion on two occasions: not showing up at the inauguration, and not going to meet with Ahmadinejad in Imam Khoemini’s masoleum. Again, both these acts showed his disregard for Ahmdinejad and the legitimacy of his government.

And in fact, after the prayer, Khomeini did something that would obviously show his position: he went to see the family of Mohsen Mirdamadi (the chief officer of the Participation Front who is prison, and whose son was taken into custody just a few days ago) and Javad Emam (a recently released member of the Mojahedin party).

The Great Absence: Khatami

I think the biggest news from the prayer was not the presence of Rafsanjani or Khomeini, but the absence of Khatami.  Khatami too was first in line every year, and his absence sends a very clear signal: that he no longer accepts the leadership of this leader. Karoubi and Mousavi have been very vocal and have gone very far, and anyways, they were never seen in the first line of prayer these past few years. We can guess that they were absent for the same reasons as Khatami, but since Khatami was always first in line, his absence is much more noticed.

I should also add that I think one of the people to whom the leader’s words were address was Khatami. He said that confessions against other people in court was not credible. In court, a lot was said against Khatami. Against Karoubi and Mousavi too, but most was said about Khatami. I think the leader intended to appease Khatami with those words.

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2200 GMT: We took a break tonight to recuperate from the drama of Friday. To be honest, almost all the chatter is a recycling of the events and images of Qods Day.

There are intriguing developments surrounding the clerical opposition to the Government. Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was forced to cancel an important annual prayer.

The Green Movement is highlighting the possibility that marjas, the highest-ranking senior clerics, will not declare that Ramadan has ended Sunday and can be celebrated with the feast of Eid al-Fitr. In particular, it is noted that the websites of Ayatollah Montazeri and of Ayatollah Sane'i have not yet declared that the Holy Month is over.

Ayatollahs Mousavi-Ardebili, Safi-Golpaygani, and Bayat-Zanjani are also declaring that they have not seen the crescent of the moon. And now Hojatoleslam Taghdiri, the head of the crescent observation committee of  Tehran Province, has said that there is no way that the crescent can be observed tonight, permitting Eid al-Fitr to proceed tomorrow.

The statements are significant because they defy the declaration of the Supreme Leader that Sunday is the end of Ramadan holiday.

1540 GMT: In his first statement after Qods Day, Mehdi Karroubi has told medical faculty of the great opportunity "to expose in court atrocities which would have made the Shah look good".

1250 GMT: The Quds Day Football Mystery (continued). Two readers continue the tireless effort to sort out what happened with last night's Iranian state TV broadcast of the Esteghlal-Estell Azin match (video in separate entry and see 0740 GMT). Both note that the game was re-broadcast, after the "problems" with live transmission. One notes, "It was in colour and not in black and white as reported. There were many Esteghlal fans in the stadium but almost all of them came in blue. You could see glimpses of green colour among them, but, as I said, about 95% of the came in blue. I also couldn't hear any opposition slogans during the game, to be honest."

The other reader has the possible answer: "They started over from the beginning of the match, in color, with the sound edited from another match (so Green chants could not be heard). Also they cut away several times to another camera on the sideline for showing reaction shots of the bench/coaches, even though they said there was only one camera in Azadi Stadium."

1240 GMT: Maryam at Keeping the Change has taken on the task of sifting through the information to establish "whether Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Mohammad Khatami...took part in the Qods Day demonstrations". Her thoughtful but provocative assessment:

Mousavi and Rafsanjani could have been forced to appear in the protests against their wills or may have been given the choice to either stay away from the demonstrations or attend the government-sponsored rallies. The men may have calculated that failing to appear at the marches would be more damaging than participating in the pro-government demonstrations....The utilitarian calculations of the two men and the propaganda potential of these images aside, the presence of Mousavi, in particular, at the pro-government rally may prove to have undermined his "Opposition"-credentials, giving the impression (whether true or misleading) that he has become less assertive, more prone to succumb to government pressure, and/or is in a weakened position vis vis the government. As for Rafsanjani, a similar analysis may be appropriate, though his historical tendency to walk a fine line between competing interest groups militates against rushing to judgment on his motivations.

1130 GMT: Definitely a lull after the storm of events. We've now completed and posted the analyses of Mr Smith, "What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?", and of Scott Lucas, "Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day". We've also got a new account from a participant in the demonstration and a new video thread as well as yesterday's video collection.

0830 GMT: Contrary to our fears at the end of yesterday, it appears that the regime's restrictions on the Internet were more to stifle the Qods Day protests than as a forerunner of an even more intense crackdown of arrests. Some Internet services have been restored in Iran.

0820 GMT: Three of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri, arrested yesterday, have been released. Three of his grandchildren remain in detention.

0740 GMT: The Qods Day Football Match. Our quirkiest story of the day, complete with video, gets even better. The latest account is that state television's coverage was delayed and limited to one black-and-white camera not because of the fears of Green symbols and chants but because the regime's efforts to limit communications hindered IRIB's technical systems. (I think the Blue team won 2-0 but I can't tell which one was Blue.)

0600 GMT: To be honest, this is a holding entry. For the first time in 24 hours, it is possible to draw breath and take a reflective step back, as the news from Iran is slow this morning, in part because of the Government's attempts to close down information on the scale of its setback yesterday, more because everyone is trying to take in exactly what happened on Qods Day.

The regime will try to regain its balance today. Press TV has a lovely example. Its story just before I went to bed was "Iran's Opposition Marches on Qods Day", a recognition that "supporters of Iran's opposition movement...joined the major annual commemorative rally showing their loyalty to their leaders". This morning the website is back on the proper line: "Iranians March in Solidary with Palestinians".

But, barring a swift crackdown by the Government, with a wave of high-profile arrests, the question of initiative will be with the opposition. What can the leaders and the Green Wave do with the opportunity offered by the tens of thousands who, after all that has been thrown at protest to make it go away, "won" with their defiance --- in anger, sadness, hope, and more than a bit of humour --- yesterday?

That's what EA staff will work on now. The first part of our opening analysis is now posted.