Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday

The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle
Iran: The Supreme Leader and the Larijani-Karroubi Meeting
Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

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It was a quieter day on Tuesday, but make no mistake, there were some significant moves. And in those moves were the indications of both possibilities and problems for the opposition and for the Government.

For the Green movement, yesterday brought alignment of the pieces. Mehdi Karroubi, to say the least, is already in play; the question now, after all the Government threats against him, is how high a profile he takes on Friday. Tuesday morning brought the entry of Mir Hossein Mousavi with the announcement that he would participate in the Qods Day demonstration and encourage followers to do so; Mohammad Khatami repeated the process in the afternoon.

Expect the "followers" today to make their declarations, with political activists and possibly some clerical groups issuing statements that Qods Day will be their day. The obvious challenge is to turn declaration into mass practice. Communications within Iran are still difficult, and the threat of arrests and violence is strong. How many turn out on the street in the next 48 hours?

The most striking story on Tuesday, however, came on the Government side. The regime was preparing to shut out Hashemi Rafsanjani from Qods Day prayers so President Ahmadinejad could introduce his hard-line supporter, Ahmad Khatami, and signal that Enough is Enough and This Game is Over; however, its powerful move turned into farce. Pro-Government outlets such as Fars News, seeking a dramatic proclamation, leaked the news, and the regime spent the rest of the day issuing denials, clarifications, and wait-and-sees amidst the confusion.

This morning we still don't know who will take the podium on Wednesday. Fars now makes no reference to Friday prayers, and the Islamic Republic News Agency prefers "Green Wave disturbance in the scramble for Qods rallies". I still think Ahmadinejad-Khatami is the plan for Friday, but the Government has converted an opportunity into a fumble and stumble.

This is not an indication that the the President is trouble. Paradoxically, the bungling comes from a position of power. Ahmadinejad and his allies can issue declarations, send out security forces for raids and arrests, and count on almost all of the state media to put out supporting "news".

At the same time, this is a large bureaucracy, so signs of clever co-ordination may actually be officials working off different scripts. For example, is the near-simultaneous release of some high-ranking opposition activists (for example, Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam yesterday) and the arrest of others (Karroubi advisor Fayez Ahzad) the ultimate in carrot-and-stick or is it a confusion over whether to offer limited concession or bring down the fist?

This is a bureaucracy which is supposed to be governing --- running an economy, providing services, pursuing a foreign policy. For all the headlines that the third task is being pursued, with the dance around talks with Western powers and Ahmadinejad's forthcoming appearance at the UN, the other two areas aren't exactly inspiring confidence.

This is a bureaucracy which is not yet secure "within". After the apparent victory quelling conservative and principlist concerns, symbolised by the approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, the last 48 hours have brought the first signs that leading MPs may be ready to poke the President in the eye once again. The symbolic issue is currently the nomination of the First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi: how much of a groundswell against him is signalled by the accusations of high-profile conservatives like Morteza Motahhari and Ahmad Tavakoli (who is close to the Larijanis)?

I'm not even sure this is a bureaucracy which has a comfortable alignment of power between the Supreme Leader and the President. Weeks of shifting relations between the two were supposed to culminate in last Friday's prayers, where Ayatollah Khamenei would put to rest the notion that the opposition could prevail against his Government. Instead, the "other" moves of the week --- the raids and arrests, the threats against opposition leaders --- brought the question: is the Supreme Leader now a follower of Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard? And yesterday just adds a punctuation mark. Who exactly is deciding what takes place on Friday?

And oh, yes, one other question as the timer for this chess match is started. While the opposition tries to line up for Friday and the Government looks to convert its immediate advantages of more powerful forces into checkmate, what happens to the piece that was supposed to be taken off the board on Tuesday?

Enduring America readers have shrewdly recognised and alerted others that Hashemi Rafsanjani is not the opposition movement. At the same time, he has been a catalyst --- symbolic and political --- for those trying to put pressure on the regime.

Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, thousands (how many thousands?) are ready to make moves on Friday. But does the former President suddenly jump onto the board --- and if so, are his own moves coordinated with those of the other pieces? --- or does he stand aside, possibly waiting for the Assembly of Experts meeting next Tuesday?

Qods Day is two days away.

The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

NEW Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
UPDATED Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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2100 GMT: This summer's proposed privatisation of Iran Telecom has had everything from Russian involvement to Revolutionary Guard manoeuvring, so make what you will of this story from Press TV: "Iran has postponed the planned flotation of the country's Telecommunications Company, originally scheduled for Wednesday, in the Tehran Stock Exchange."

1730 GMT: Battle Renewed? From this morning's analysis: "One of [the challengers], conservative and principlist critics of the Government, has remained silent."

Well, we need to make a minor amendment. Sniping has resumed over President Ahmadinejad's choice of First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. Yesterday prominent conservative MP Ali Motahhari said the appointment of Rahimi signalled "bad taste" and "a tendency to quarrel" by Ahmadinejad. Rahimi's academic credentials presented "the same problems" as the ones possessed by former Minister of the Interior, Ali Kordan, who was forced to resign for falsely claiming a doctorate from Oxford University.

Today MP Ahmad Tavakoli echoed, "Rahimi’s degree is fake and similar to Kordan’s.” He added, “Appointing someone who has a record of lying and abusing power who can potentially substitute for the president is regrettable.”

So it is this a re-run of Ahmadinejad's failed effort in July to appoint Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as First Vice President, an affair which damaged the President for a few weeks until he was able to push through his Cabinet choices?

1700 GMT: Khatami's In. An official from Mohammad Khatami's office says that the former President invites all Iranians to participate in Qods Day ceremonies "to protest the occupation of Palestine and the oppression of Palestinians".

1440 GMT: Meanwhile, HomyLafayette's blog has a useful summary of the still-uncertain situation regarding Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership/non-leadership of Qods Day Friday prayers. in contrast to our own reading that the regime has now blocked the former President's appearance, the blog still says, "Will he or won't he?", before concluding, "For the protesters who aim to demonstrate in huge numbers on Friday, the answer may well turn out to be irrelevant."

1430 GMT: Qods Day Latest. The story of Mir Hossein Mousavi's participation (1120 GMT) is firming up. Mousavi's website Kaleme, supported by Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page, announces, "Following many questions regarding the Qods Day rally, the office of Mir Hossein Mousavi has announced that Mousavi will attend the rally side-by-side with the people of Iran, as this is the day to support the innocent and oppressed."

The Internet is buzzing with the story that Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami will also be present at the gathering. No sign yet, however, of a joint statement amongst the three leaders.

1320 GMT: No Carrot, Just Stick. Ten minutes after reporting the release of Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam, we get news that Karroubi advisor Fayez Zahad has been arrested.

1315 GMT: Those Pesky Clerics. The Iranian Labour News Agency reports that Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has had a "dialogue" with Grand Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili on on the "issues and current events in the country".

It's this cute phrase, however, that highlights the significance of the discussion: "It must be pointed out during a similar meeting last week between several senior clerics was held." That "similar meeting" led to a letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government.

1310 GMT: Stick. Carrot. Report that Javad Imam, Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign manager, has been released on bail after three months in detention.

1305 GMT: The Regime Blocks Rafsanjani. The urgent announcement on the Islamic Republic News Agency says, from "an informed source", that Hashemi Rafsanjani's appearance at Qods Day Friday prayers has been "cancelled".  A replacement will be named tomorrow.

Note "cancelled". Rafsanjani did not withdraw; the regime has decided that he will not be leading because, according to the informed source, his presence might bring unwanted political activity.

This explains the confusion this morning. The Government was obviously making its replacement plan, with Ahmad Khatami leading on Friday, but was not ready to make its move when Press TV/Fars leaked the news.

1300 GMT: Drawing the Line. Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has warned that the arrests of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, would be “an unrecoverable mistake”. Dastgheib said the opposition "do not want to and cannot threaten” and “we neither have military nor ability to deal with trained officers, tear gas and guns”; however, people have the right to express their anger and arresting the reformist leaders “will have unfortunate consequences for everyone”.

1120 GMT: Mousavi's In. The Green movement's website Mowj-e-Sabz has announced that Mir Hossein Mousavi will attend the demonstrations on Friday for Qods Day. Mousavi will also be issuing a statements urging his followers to join.

1100 GMT: After the rush of news and rumour this morning, a quiet phase. Fars has not updated its claim that Ahmad Khatami will lead this Friday's prayers.

Press TV, meanwhile, wins the award for today's ambiguous article, "Rafsanjani Urges Epic Turnout for Qods Day", avoiding any reference to internal matters for the motive "to foil world powers' plot to sow discord among Muslims".

0830 GMT: Or Maybe Not. Tabnak claims that the head of the Friday Prayers Committee has denied that Ahmad Khatami has been selected as the speaker on Qods Day.

Personally, I think this is just embarrassment that the news has leaked. Expect Khatami to be confirmed in a few hours.

0820 GMT: Your Qods Day Friday Prayer Leader is.... Ahmad Khatami. Press TV has just reported this news, which is reprinted by Fars.

0815 GMT: It is No Longer Quiet. Fasten your seatbelts, folks, because this ride just got faster. Fars News reports that President Ahmadinejad will introduce the Friday Prayers speaker on Qods Day.

0755 GMT: Confession --- this is a "holding" entry, as very little has emerged this morning after yesterday's rush of developments. We've tried to bring everything together in a new analysis, "Checking the Scorecard of Opposition".

We also have an updated, complete translation of Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the Iranian people (thanks to Evan Siegel) and last night's statement by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers

Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised


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0445 GMT: Wednesday was a retrenching day for most parties in the Iran conflict. The Supreme Leader, inevitably, kept a low profile ahead of his big appearance on Friday at prayers in Tehran. We are none the wiser as to whether he is aligned with President Ahmadinejad's aggressive crackdown on the opposition, is catching up with moves he did not anticipate, or is manoeuvring for position between factions within the Establishment.

Ahmadinejad's Government, meanwhile, played the international actor by presenting its proposals for the next steps on Iran's nuclear programme to the "5+1" powers (US, UK, Russia, China, France, and Germany). The paper will soon be kicked back to Tehran as insufficient and even irrelevant; within hours of its presentation yesterday the ever-present "Western diplomats" were leaking to ever-present media channels that they were not happy with a sketchy five-page outline that dealt more with general global issues than with verification of Iran's nuclear status.

The most visible move came from the Green opposition via Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement reacting to the arrest of his aides and those of Mehdi Karroubi in the raids of the previous 48 hours. On its own, this was a "hold the line" statement: keep calm, keep alert, don't be intimidated. The best way to read it, in fact, is next to Mousavi's previous statement for the "Green Path of Hope", set out just before the Government move against his offices and staff. That statement, in addition to its call for a social movement of protest, outlined nine steps to be taken to restore Iran's political, legal, religious, and social integrity.

Karroubi, meanwhile, kept a low profile, possibly as a tactical measure, possibly because it has been enforced by the shutdown of his media outlets, and former President Khatami also made no intervention. (Nor, apart from the Green movement, did Hashemi Rafsanjani, pop up.) Instead, the chatter was about the ripples from Sunday's meeting of prominent clerics in Qom, which including several Grand Ayatollahs. It is not definite but probable that the gathering spurring Ayatollah Golpaygani's letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the Cabinet, which brought a firm rebuke from Khamenei, and an invitation to Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, to discuss matters.

How much space do they have to manoeuvre? On the Government side, the most curious development was an interview with the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, with criticism of those who acted "outside the law". We initially read this as a possible alignment behind Ahmadinejad, interpreting Larijani's outsiders as the opposition. There is, however, a question mark over this, with some Iran-watchers seeing Larijani's statement as a reference to the security forces and military who abused detainees at prisons like Kahrizak. We will update on this later today.

Iran: Ahmadinejad's "All-In" Move?

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Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
NEW Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces

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An admission: for the first time in three months, I feel very uncertain about an analysis. Up to this point, with the immense help of colleagues and readers, I could read and analyse the move of various participants in the post-election conflict, watching them act and react against each other. Even in mid-August, when we tried to figure out the manoeuvres of Hashemi Rafsanjani, I think we came to a secure conclusion about his complex, cautious steps.

Yesterday afternoon changed all this. We were in the midst of reading yet another turn of the kaleidoscope: an apparent alignment between the Supreme Leader and other elements in the Iranian Establishment to find a compromise that would contain the reformists by offering a limited "compromise", thus securing the system. This would have entailed a loudly-proclaimed but strictly-defined enquiry into detentions and abuses, public but relatively gentle criticism of the President's handling of the crisis, and perhaps the "Ramadan present" of a release of high-profile prisoners.

It seemed this was the latest but one of the most important chess moves in the conflict. Then at 3 p.m. Tehran time yesterday, 24 hours after security forces raided an office run by the staff of Mir Hossein Mousavi, someone --- most likely, the President, working with the Revolutionary Guard --- ordered the seizure of the main office of Mehdi Karroubi and the Etemade Melli political party and website, arresting the editor-in-chief of etemademelli.ir and perhaps shutting the site down. And a few hours after that, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested.

I think the difficulty in evaluating these steps is that Ahmadinejad is not playing chess. Dismissing our once-favourite cliche for a new analogy, with the attack on the Mousavi and Karroubi camps, the President and the Revolutionary Guards are palying cards, and they just put all their chips in the middle.

It's called an "all-in" bet. It's far more brutal than the intricate moves on the chessboard, and it forces your opponent not only to think but to make a make-or-break decision. In the face of this assault, does the Green movement fold its cards, conceding that for now Ahmadinejad has the authority, however illegitimate that might be? Or does it "call", preparing for a showdown that could mean more arrests and the effectively dismantling of an organised opposition for the near-future?

This, however, is the easy part of the analysis. The much tricker reading is that Ahmadinejad's move (again, considering "Ahmadinejad" as the President, his close allies, and Revolutionary Guard leaders) may not have been solely against the opposition.

With the dramatic measures taken in the last 48 hours, supported by his confrontational rhetoric, the President is moving not only against the "Green Path of Hope" but against other members of the Establishment and even the Supreme Leader.

I'll add the caution that my view is not universally held here at EA, where heated debate will continue today. And Josh Shahryar, who is working on a must-read analysis that should appear by Friday, has a slightly different perspective.

The immediate question: did the Supreme Leader know of the steps for raids and arrests, even as he was publicly advising Ahmadinejad yesterday morning to listen to "benevolent criticism"?

The interpretation that Ayatollah Khamenei is in line with the President/IRGC crackdown argues that the plans to move against Mousavi and Karroubi were in place before the Supreme Leader announced he would be leading Friday prayers in Tehran. Thus, by the time he took the podium, a message to the reformists that "enough is enough" would be backed up by a velvet fist. Behave yourselves, and Alireza Behesti will be released in a few days, your offices can be re-opened, and you can maintain your websites and newspapers (while adhering to our guidelines for proper reporting and analysis).

(An important note: this of course is also an important message to Hashemi Rafsanjani: "Do not make a move, my friend." If you lead prayers on Qods Day, 18 September, do not offer any opening for continued opposition to this Government.)

The price of the deal? Control of the enquiry into the post-election abuses would pass into the hands of the Government, with Mehdi Karroubi giving up any significant role and intervention. A few scapegoats could take the fall for the deaths at Kahrizak prison, thus appeasing conservative/principlist politicians who were angered by the abuse of Mohsen Ruholamini, and possibly for the raid on Tehran University at the start of the crisis.

Seeing it on paper after hearing it from colleagues, it makes sense. But I'm still not sure.

While the Supreme Leader has taken a tough line with the direct challenge of the opposition throughout this crisis, he has also compromises within the Establishment to strengthen it politicially. So his 19 June Friday Prayer address, while defying the Green movement on calls to review the election, also sought to bring Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani together. Other steps have tried to check the President, notably the insistence on the removal of the First Vice President, Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai, and on the appointment of Sadegh Larijani to head Iran's judiciary. While Ayatollah Khamenei did swing behind full approval of Ahmadinejad's Cabinet, my reading was still that he was doing this for the sake of the system, rather than the President.

It was for this reason that (with hindsight, erroneously) I had been writing that Ahmadinejad was relatively weak in this crisis. I had not counted in his street-fighting resilience and aggression, which meant that (to return to the card table) he would raise the stakes rather than fold. At the same time, it has been for this reason that I had seen the Supreme Leader making move after move to balance and bring together elements of the Establishment who were in tension and even fighting one another.

The Ahmadinejad-IRGC risks that balance by substituting the blunt showdown of political poker for the nuances of the chessboard. So, for me, it is a bet that forces the hand of the Supreme Leader as well as the Green opposition and Rafsanjani. His response comes in 48 hours when he addresses the Friday faithful in Tehran.

Yet, even if I'm wrong on the short-term --- Khamenei is in line with the Ahmadinejad-IRGC strike at the reformists --- there is an even more important dimension beyond. The cold conclusion is that the President and his allies have seized the initiative, and that sets a precedent.

The foundation of the Islamic Republic from its inception by Ayatollah Khomeini has been the concept of velayat-e-faqih, ultimate clerical authority. This has not been an authority that has rested on the Supreme Leader maintaining a detachment from politics (a mistaken assumption of some who have read Khamenei's moves in this crisis as a break from the past) but being able to define the political, at times overruling his President and the Executive.

When he intervened after 12 June (and, indeed, before that) over the Presidential election, the Supreme Leader was trying to maintain control over that process. Whatever the fate of this week's "all-in" bet by Ahmadinejad and the IRGC, the Supreme Leader has not been able to accomplish that. Velayat-e-faqih has been eroded.

So if we could conclude one chapter of this crisis by taking the Green movement off the table (and I don't think that even this can be set down --- watch for Qods Day), there are other players in this game. And the biggest to date of those players, a Mr Ali Khamenei, now may have his make-or-decision decision.

Call or fold?

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Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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And so the next wave? After the recent pre-eminence of President Ahmadinejad's quest for authority, backed by threats to quell the opposition challenge, yesterday brought an intriguing combination of Green statements.

All three of the most prominent figures were in play yesterday. Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to "The Green Path of Hope" has sparked an excellent debate, including on yesterday's updates and on our special analysis, of the significance for the opposition. Mehdi Karroubi pressed his claims of detainee abuse, manoeuvring with the three-person judiciary panel investigating the cases. And Mohammad Khatami struck back vigorously at the regime's efforts to direct --- through injunctions to administration and faculty, through curriculum revisions, and through threats to instutions like Islamic Azad University --- "proper" studies. There were also fightback statements from reformist MPs and clerics against the Revolutionary Guard's efforts to intimidate the opposition with the claims that the Green movement was pursuing "regime change".

As has been the case throughout this crisis, anyone who ventures to predict the fate of this latest wave is either a fool or a visionary far beyond my capabilities. Some markers can be set down, however.

This time, the opposition activity may be moving toward a defining junction in the challenge to Government legitimacy. Publicity through the Internet, flyers, and word-of-mouth is already pointing towards the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September, which is also Qods (Jerusalem Day). Under the working slogan of "Silence = Consent", activists are looking to mobilise the biggest march since 18 Tir (9 July) and the biggest event since the 40th Day memorial of 30 July, possibly in conjunction with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

With a wave of protest which seeks to build over 11 days, the watching brief should be not to expect a major challenge until the 18th but to look, each day, for some step-by-step statements and actions that indicates, "We are here, and we are gathering strength."

And that effort may be aided by an emerging factor on the other side. While noting all the indications of an Ahmadinejad campaign to establish his leadership, supported by the security forces, the President also now has to govern. Little things like the economy, delivery of services, and re-nominating ministers for the posts of Health, Education, and Energy come into play after three months of near-stalemate.

All those little things take time away from the direct contest with the opposition because --- as we noted a few days ago --- the long-term Achilles' heel for the legitimacy of this Government is Iran's economic and social infrastructure. And this far-from-minor diversion opens up some space for the opposition to gather itself.

But, to put in a third (of many) consideration. In all the paragraphs above, indeed in weeks going back to mid-August, the large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared. While Mousavi calls for the "Green Path of Hope", while other protestors try to build up a momentum that (paradoxically) will not collapse with a single setback, while Ahmadinejad tries to rule....

Where will Rafsanjani be on 18 September?