The Latest from Iran (17 September): Tomorrow

Latest Iran Video: Ayatollah Dastgheib Condemns Khamenei (31 Aug/5 Sept?)
UPDATED Iran: The NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad
Qods Day: A Protest For Palestine or Against Iran’s Government?
Iran: So, What Are the Green Movement’s Goals Tomorrow?
Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

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2055 GMT: Reports that writer and blogger Ali Pirhousienlou and hsi wife Fatemeh Sotoudeh have been arrested.

1930 GMT: In addition to the assassination of the Assembly of Experts member (1750 GMT), it is reported that the Chief Prosecutor in Kurdestan has been shot.

1845 GMT: Tomorrow's march routes for Mashhad and for Rasht have been posted.

1750 GMT: In the latest of a series of assassinations in the province, the Kurdistan representative on the Assembly of Experts was killed today.

1705 GMT: An EA source sends us this from a Tehran resident: "People will come out but many are also leaving Tehran as it is a long weekend. Saturday is half closed and Sunday is a holiday. Many who participated in previous demonstrations are leaving Tehran or have left already and many are much scared of what happened to their colleagues, friends and other citizens."

1640 GMT: The Marches. Iranian activist HomyLafayette has posted the routes for tomorrow's marches in Tehran (7 routes ending at the University of Tehran; start at 10 a.m. local time; 0530 GMT), Isfahan, and Tabriz.

1545 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Mohammad Maleki, the former chancellor of Tehran University, has been charged with acting against Iran's national security. Maleki, who is 76 and suffering from prostate cancer, was arrested on 22 August.

1410 GMT: Mehdi Mousavi-Nejad, the brother of the wife of detained former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, has been arrested.

1310 GMT: Lemming MediaFail. Adding to NBC's threatened ludicrous journalism at the court of President Ahmadinejad (see separate entry), Reuters offers a spectacularly bad headline, "Iran opposition leaders to attend anti-Israel rally".

And in case you think that this is a slip-up and they do realise that the main reason for marching tomorrow is to maintain pressure on the Government, they repeat in the article, "Defeated presidential candidates Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi said they would attend the anti-Israel rally."

1305 GMT: The Government Warning. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued its threat through the Islamic Republic News Agency: "We are warning people and the movements who want to help the Zionist regime that if you seek any disruption or disorder during the glorious Quds Day rally, you will be decisively confronted by the courageous children of Iran....The enemies of the regime and the revolution and those who were defeated in the recent election are trying to take revenge for what happened on election day."

The IRGC claimed that dissent is part of a plan by "foreign networks, especially the Zionist regime's intelligence service to create disruption and division in the people's united movement."

1300 GMT: The Plan. Mehdi Karroubi's office has announced that the cleric will leave his offices at 11 a.m. local time tomorrow to march to 7 Tir Square for the Qods Day rally.

1240 GMT: Well, Well. The Internet is buzzing with reports of a visit by Mir Hossein Mousavi to Qom on Tuesday night, where he met Ayatollah Sane'i, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, the brother of Ayatollah Montazeri, Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, and the representative of Iraq's Ayatollah Sistani. Mousavi also participated in a meeting of the Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom.

We are confirming the exact date of the trip.

1030 GMT: Going After the Children. Confirming news we received last night: Mehdi Mirdamadi, the son of Mohsen Mirdamadi, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, was arrested last night. Mohsen Mirdamadi has been detained since shortly after the election.

Hossein Nourinejad, head of the information committee of the IIPF, and IIPF member Mehdi Mahmoudian have also been arrested.

1015 GMT: Credit to The Guardian of London, who have been running some interesting analysis on their website (though, unfortunately, not in the print edition). This morning Ranj Alaaldin and Nicholas Zanjani offer thoughts on "Ahmadinejad's desperate gamble", believing that his "administration depends on a redistribution of wealth for support and the flight of capital from Iran will hurt".

The article may be over-dramatic --- "As money continues to reverse course and leave the pockets of his supporters, those who voted for Ahmadinejad are being left to wonder why the government deserves their continuing loyalty" --- but it does raise the point, overlooked by most in the media but pressed on EA by Chris Emery, that the long-term weakness for the Government and possibly the regime lies in their management of the economy.

0800 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times focuses on "Iran Opposition Leader Sidelined from Rally", in what Robert Worth sees as "a striking break from precedent that suggests the country’s hard-line leaders fear the event could turn into an opposition rally". Borzou Daragahi runs the same story in The Los Angeles Times but turns the analysis into "the declining influence of Iranian moderates within the political elite". The Washington Post, with its preference for worry over Iran's nuclear programme, has nothing this morning.

Some of the broadcast media have now wandered from poor to terrible. NBC Television's staff have been shouting about their "exclusive" interview with President Ahmadinejad, to be broadcast in a few hours, but they have no apparent knowledge of Qods Day. CNN's Twitter posse have just proclaimed that they'll be following Qods Day. Last news story on the CNN website from inside Iran? 11 September.

0550 GMT: Looking towards the speeches and rallies on Qods (Jerusalem) Day on Friday, we've posted an analysis in the form of an important question, "What are the Green Movement's Goals?" Later this morning, we'll post an overview of the Qods Day marches by Meir Javedanfar.

Catching up with a couple of developments from yesterday:

An EA correspondent notes that the Rafsanjani interview downplaying his forced withdrawal from Qods Day prayers, summarised in Wednesday's updates, was carried by Al-Alam, the Arabic-language service of Iran's state television. The correspondent notes, "Why Rafsanajani chose to grant them his first post-electoral interview could be subject of speculation. Maybe he was told to tell the Arab world that Iran is not imploding?"

And a warning sign for Friday: Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Basiji militia in the town of Varamin have been distributing leaflets calling on their forces to converge on Tehran.

Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers

Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised


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0445 GMT: Wednesday was a retrenching day for most parties in the Iran conflict. The Supreme Leader, inevitably, kept a low profile ahead of his big appearance on Friday at prayers in Tehran. We are none the wiser as to whether he is aligned with President Ahmadinejad's aggressive crackdown on the opposition, is catching up with moves he did not anticipate, or is manoeuvring for position between factions within the Establishment.

Ahmadinejad's Government, meanwhile, played the international actor by presenting its proposals for the next steps on Iran's nuclear programme to the "5+1" powers (US, UK, Russia, China, France, and Germany). The paper will soon be kicked back to Tehran as insufficient and even irrelevant; within hours of its presentation yesterday the ever-present "Western diplomats" were leaking to ever-present media channels that they were not happy with a sketchy five-page outline that dealt more with general global issues than with verification of Iran's nuclear status.

The most visible move came from the Green opposition via Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement reacting to the arrest of his aides and those of Mehdi Karroubi in the raids of the previous 48 hours. On its own, this was a "hold the line" statement: keep calm, keep alert, don't be intimidated. The best way to read it, in fact, is next to Mousavi's previous statement for the "Green Path of Hope", set out just before the Government move against his offices and staff. That statement, in addition to its call for a social movement of protest, outlined nine steps to be taken to restore Iran's political, legal, religious, and social integrity.

Karroubi, meanwhile, kept a low profile, possibly as a tactical measure, possibly because it has been enforced by the shutdown of his media outlets, and former President Khatami also made no intervention. (Nor, apart from the Green movement, did Hashemi Rafsanjani, pop up.) Instead, the chatter was about the ripples from Sunday's meeting of prominent clerics in Qom, which including several Grand Ayatollahs. It is not definite but probable that the gathering spurring Ayatollah Golpaygani's letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the Cabinet, which brought a firm rebuke from Khamenei, and an invitation to Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, to discuss matters.

How much space do they have to manoeuvre? On the Government side, the most curious development was an interview with the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, with criticism of those who acted "outside the law". We initially read this as a possible alignment behind Ahmadinejad, interpreting Larijani's outsiders as the opposition. There is, however, a question mark over this, with some Iran-watchers seeing Larijani's statement as a reference to the security forces and military who abused detainees at prisons like Kahrizak. We will update on this later today.

The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised

NOW POSTED Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers
Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing

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2220 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President (Continued)? Earlier today (1125 GMT) we noted that the head of judiciary seemed to be aiming at those who went "beyond the law" because of the "false claim" of electoral fraud. Another snippet of the interview is even more dramatic, as Larijani denounces those who have brought “great costs to the Islamic system" with their opposition.

2020 GMT: More on Ayatollahs Take a Stand? (1540 GMT) Some interesting developments from the Sunday meeting of senior clerics in Qom that we have been following. Ayatollah Golpaygani wrote a letter criticising the Ahmadinejad Cabinet; the Supreme Leader replied sharply, effectively prohibiting the Ayatollah from "interfering" in Government issues. Meanwhile, the Qom meeting has asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, based in Najaf in Iraq, to travel to Iran for discussions and Grand Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani has expressed regret for congratulating Ahmadinejad on his election victory.

2010 GMT: Report that Sadegh Noroozi, head of political council of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party, has been released.

1850 GMT: Bemoans?! Our friends at Press TV show their respect for the Mousavi statement: "Mousavi bemoans arrest of top aides, urges calm".

1840 GMT: Remember our emerging assessment that the biggest challenge for President Ahmadinejad may be governing Iran, especially handling the economy, rather than confronting the opposition? This from Press TV: "The value of Iran's oil products exports has plunged by 51 percentage points in the first half of the current Iranian year due to the global economic downturn."

1815 GMT: A Correction. We reported earlier (0920 GMT) that Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was arrested yesterday. In fact, there has been no confirmation of Baghi's arrest although the Association's offices were shut down.

1810 GMT: Quick! Look Over There! I suspect international media will be absorbed by this story, rather than any international developments in Iran, until the Supreme Leader's speech on Friday. From Press TV: "Amid international calls on Iran to engage the West over its nuclear program, the country presents the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with its latest package of proposals to tackle global issues."

1800 GMT: CNNFail/TwitterSuccess. I know, I risk being repetitive but this exchange, over the arrest of Alireza Beheshti, has to be noted to be believed:

(1330 GMT) verypissedoff: Why are CNN & ABC silent? #iranelection Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained
[The Reuters story was posted at 1251 GMT. Enduring America ran it as an urgent update, following Twitter to the Mowj-e-Sabz website, at 1945 GMT on Wednesday.]

(1655 GMT) rosemaryCNN Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained, website says

Despite the fact that Rosemary Church, one of CNN's anchors, finally acknowledged the story almost 24 hours after it happened, CNN's website still has no reference to the far-from-minor development.

This is in no way a slapdown of Rosemary Church, who does good work and has used Twitter (unlike others in the media) to interact with others rather than for self-promotion of her and her network. However, based on the last 72 hours, let alone the last three months, I will take my stand against anyone who says Twitter is merely a diversion which should be set aside in the work of "real" journalists.

1540 GMT: Ayatollahs Taking a Stand? We reported on Monday about a meeting in Qom of several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics including, Ayatollahs Golpaygani, Makarem-Shirazi, Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, on “practical steps against the coup government”. Now the Green movement's website, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that the clerics are pressing their challenge against an "illegitimate" government, including its selection of female ministers, despite an attempt by the Supreme Leader through Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi to check the opposition.

1420 GMT: We have posted a translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi advisors in a separate entry.

1400 GMT: Another Arrest. In addition to the detentions on Tuesday of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, Etemade Melli website editor Mohammad Davari, security forces arrested Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, a former IRGC commander and head of the veteran’s faction of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, at his home.

Ozlati-Moqaddam, who formerly served in the IRGC political bureau alongside Hossein Shariatmadari and Hossein Safar-Harandi, was arrested on Tuesday.

1330 GMT: A slow period has been broken by the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi. Condemning the arrests of Alireza Beheshti, his top advisor, and Mortreza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s top advisor, he warns people that “more difficult” days are on the way and advising them to be calm and remain careful and alert. At the same time, Mousavi is asking them to not be intimidated by "the coup government", as the regime's "pathetic acts" are doomed to fail like their previous efforts.

1140 GMT: Hours before he was arrested yesterday, Mehdi Karroubi's aide Morteza Alviri, who was also a member of the Karroubi-Mousavi committees investigating detentions, gave an interview to Rooz Online (translation by HomyLafayette):

The regime's actions have pushed political activity out of parties and into homes and within the population....Silence is not acquiescence. There is a bomb within the hearts of the people, and it can explode at any time....I still believe that fraud took place in the election. The country is in a state of martial law.

1125 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President? The head of Iran's judiciary has said that the "false claim" of election fraud led some people to go "beyond the law", adding, "The life of our social system is dependent on law enforcement."

Larijani was vague beyond this, for example, on detentions and trials, but I wonder if the statement could be read as implicit acceptance of the Ahmadinejad line.

1040 GMT: It's All about Us (outside Iran). The perils of an attention span which is all about what Iran means for "us" rather than what is happening inside Iran is all too clear in Simon Tisdall's blunt statement today in The Guardian of London: "If anyone still wonders what happened to the Iranian revolution of 2009, the answer is: the hardliners won."

Even a quick glance at EA's analyses, and those of other sites like Anonymous Iran and Keeping the Change, complicates Tisdall's assertions. Who exactly are his "hardliners"? Ahmadinejad? The Revolutionary Guard? The Supreme Leader? All of the above? And has the opposition just evaporated in the face of measures such as yesterday's raids?

These are trifles, however, because Tisdall is not really concerned with anything beyond a superficial reference to the internal situation. His focus is "the difficulties inherent in dealing with Tehran". Nuclear programme. Sanctions. "Soft power". All of which leads him into the cul-de-sac:

One is to admit the Israelis may be right in arguing that military action is the only sure way to hinder or stop Iran's nuclear advances. The other is to do nothing – and hope that Iran's repeated assurances that it does not seek the atom bomb are true.

As bleak as the picture may be in Iran after the last 48 hours, it's far better than this simplifying of "our" options by reducing the Iranian people to bystanders and pawns.

0920 GMT: A Far-from-Incidental Note. The Mousavi-led Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners and Mehdi Karroubi's operations were not the only organisations targeted in the last 48 hours. Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was also arrested yesterday. Baghi's office was searched and documents and equipment were taken by security forces.

0825 GMT: MediaWatch. Both New York Times and Washington Post have articles on yesterday's raid of Karroubi offices, although they only briefly mention the later arrest of Alireza Beheshti. The Los Angeles Times, normally in the lead of US-based coverage, get tangled up: anxious to feature their journalistic coup of an interview with Mehdi Karroubi, they reduce news of the raids and arrests of his staff to an insert paragraph.

CNN, continuing its poor coverage even as its correspondents pile onto Twitter to promote themselves, do not notice the Beheshti arrest. Al Jazeera also misses the Beheshti news, however, and the BBC, however, is even worse: distracted by Iran's promotional claim that it is submitting proposals on its nuclear programme today, they see nothing at all inside Iran.

0820 GMT: It appears that, with its offices raided and its editor-in-chief arrested, the Etemade Melli website (which includes Saham News) is suspended. There have been no new posts since 3:25 p.m. local time yesterday.

0800 GMT: The Mousavi response to the raid on their office and later arrest of chief advisor Alireza Beheshti? This was posted three hours ago on Facebook: "Coup gov.! We R the Media & wont let our leaders be taken hostage silently.Go Green & Bring #iranelection back on top:World will be watching /"

0750 GMT: Almost lost in yesterday's chaos was the statement of the commander of the Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari, pressing the foreign-led "soft war" pretext: “Iran's great territory, population, military might, and unique geographical location in the Middle East have turned it into a strong power, and political experts in Western countries know that they cannot overwhelm Iran by launching a military attack or hard war."

Saffari claimed that a “media war” had stirred up “civil disobedience”, asserting, “The US strategy to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on soft measures," even as it continues threats to launch a military attack.

The rhetoric is far from new, of course. What is significant is how the IRGC is pushing it less than a week after the Supreme Leader denied that foreign powers were able to pursue their "soft war" because of the strength of the Iranian system.

0730 GMT: It looks like folks in Iran are picking up the pieces from yesterday's dramatic events, so we've spent the time on a detailed analysis, "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move", considering the significance of the raids and arrests. Our easier conclusion is that this is an attempt to break the Green movement and back down Hashemi Rafsanjani. The tricker reading is whether the President and Revolutionary Guard have done this as an assertion of authority against the Supreme Leader. We'll be debating this throughout the day (and beyond) and welcome your comments and ideas.

Josh Shahryar is also working on an analysis for a high-profile publication; we'll keep you posted on when it appears. Meanwhile, his latest "Green Brief" summarising Tuesday's events is out.