Worst Facebook Poll Ever: "Should Obama be Assassinated?"

U.S. officials have stated that they are investigating an online survey posted on Facebook on Saturday that asked whether people thought President Barack Obama should be assassinated.

There were four answer choices: "Yes," "no," "maybe" and "yes, if he cuts my health care".

Darrin Blackford, a Secret Service spokesman said, "We are aware of it and we will take the appropriate investigative steps... We take of these things seriously." Facebook had suspended its "Polls" applications when we tried to look at the survey last night.

A bit of reassurance: before the poll was halted, 90 percent of respondents had voted "No">

The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

NEW Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
Iran: Montazeri Letter to Islamic Clerics (14 September)
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

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2030 GMT: An Artistic Clash for the Supreme Leader? A colleague writes with an essential correction of our first item today (0710 GMT) on Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting yesterday with ""artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers":

"The English version of Khamenei's speech to the artists actually doesn't reflect what the meeting was about. It wasn't for him to give them any guidance but rather, as Fars News fascinating account of it reveals, it was meant for the various artists to speak 'frankly' with Khamenei. While Fars New tries to whitewash some of the conversations that the artists had with Khamenei, it is clear even by their own censored account that it was a raucous meeting and that at least a couple of the artists, including Majid Majidi (who accoring to Fars News breaks down into tears) conveyed some kind of oppositional sentiment. One filmmaker when asked to speak says he doesn't feel well and sits down. Another when told there is no time for him to speak, after he had prepared a talk complains, 'You keep contacting me for a couple of days asking me to come and speak my mind and now you tell me there's no time?'"

1855 GMT: Really? According to Peykeiran, the Supreme Leader's representative with the Revolutionary Guard has warned that the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi would turn them into martyrs for the Green opposition.

Given that the Supreme Leader supposedly signed the order for Karroubi's arrest two weeks ago, this is a bit confusing. Then again, as our readers are debating in their comments, Ayatollah Khamenei's position may be far from secure.

1800 GMT: Easy Does It. In a measured, even careful, interview with Tabnak, Hashemi Rafsanjani has downplayed his absence from leading Friday Prayers on Qods Day for the first time in a quarter-century: "It is not necessary after 30 years that I should lead the prayers."

1555 GMT: Why are tents being erected around the main campus of Tehran University, where this Friday's prayers will be held?

1545 GMT: Make of this what you will: the Iranian Government has declared national holidays on Saturday and Monday, the day before and after the celebration of the end of Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr.

1310 GMT: Cyber-charge. Talk about a story turning in a few hours. The opposition's aggressive fightback on the Web continues: Mowj-e-Sabz has launched an English-language website.

1215 GMT: Cyber-bounce. Indeed, after our worry this morning (0950 GMT) about a drop in information via the Web, there is a bit of a resurgence. Mehdi Karroubi seems to have a new website for his statements and news. Is this an alternative for the Etemade Melli site, which is still down?

News is also being posted on tagheer.ir.

1200 GMT: If the Iranian regime is trying to block news in and out of Iran, the effort is incomplete. Fereshteh Ghazi has interviewed Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, who highlights the clerical resistance: "The authorities know [their] pressures have no effect on my position and action or those of Qom scholars." He adds, in relation to the arrest of his children and the family members of other clerics on Monday, "My sons and the sons of Mr. Nazemzadeh and Mr. Ahmadi aren't clerics, so why are they tried in clerics' court?"(summary in English via Ghazi's Twitter account)

Twitter traffic from inside Iran is also picking up.

1120 GMT: The US network NBC is interviewing President Ahmadinejad today and broadcasting the discussion on tomorrow morning's Today programme.

1110 GMT: The Mousavi Facebook page is still active, just posting the statement of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomenei, inviting all Iranians to participate in the rally on Qods Day "a day...for the oppressed to fight oppressors and tyranny".

1100 GMT: Morning MediaFail. CNN ($199/story) are not eligible, since they no longer have news from inside Iran. Instead, the award goes to Robert Tait and The Guardian of London. Amidst all the tension in advance of Qods Day, the confusion over Friday Prayers, the raids, the arrests, the Karroubi letters, the protests by senior clerics, their story today?

"Chinese jeans bearing name of God anger Iranians".

In their quasi-defence, the prominent notation "Read This in Chinese" is a clue that The Guardian's market attention is far away from Tehran.

1050 GMT: Cyber-war. Internet traffic from Iranians inside Iran is almost at a standstill this morning. Nothing is coming through via Twitter and contacts also remove no interaction on Facebook.

Etemade Melli/Saham News and Norooz are down. Mowj-e-Sabz and Kaleme are both up.

0950 GMT: Correcting an oversight. We have reported the arrest of the three grandchildren of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri on Monday. The children of Ayatollah Hossein Mousavi Tabrizi,were also arrested.

The catalyst for the arrests may have been an Iftar at the house of Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i. EA has received information that this Iftar, where reformist clerics and their families gathered, angered the regime and also led to the filing of a court action by President Ahmadinejad's office against Sane'i.

0935 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency carries the short item that President Ahmadinejad will introduce Ahmad Khatami, who will give the Friday Prayer address this week.

0925 GMT: Associated Press is claiming, from Iranian state radio, that the Government has confirmed Ahmad Khatami will lead Qods Day prayers.

0710 GMT: Yesterday's confusion over Qods Day continues. While Tuesday was a pretty good one for the Green leadership, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami signalled that they would join forces with Mehdi Karroubi, the Government's disarray over Friday prayers was never resolved. We've tried to see the events in wider perspective, leading up to Qods Day, in a separate analysis, "Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces".

Rather than offer any specific guidance, the Supreme Leader spent Tuesday telling "artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers" that they should be putting out proper art. His reference point was not the current internal conflict but the 1980-1988 war with Iraq: "The eight-year Sacred Defense was the embodiment of outstanding characteristics, prominent cultural values, and lofty beliefs, and those who recount it in an artistic manner are like a mirror reflecting the manifestation of splendor and glory."

If there was contemporary resonance in Ayatollah Khamenei's address, it may be in this cryptic injunction to artists that "their sensitive views should not create a spirit of despair in people".

Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition

Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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On Monday we listed five challengers to the authority and legitimacy of the regime. One of these, conservative and principlist critics of the Government, remained silent, but the other four kept us very busy. Let's have a look, shall we?

1) THE GREEN LEADERSHIP: Mehdi Karroubi just won't go away, will he? On Monday he issued a lengthy letter to the Iranian people, re-stating his case on the abuse of detainees and thereby taking apart the Iranian judiciary's dismissal of his evidence. He agreed to a meeting with Speaker of the President Ali Larijani, where the discussion went something like this:

LARIJANI: Karroubi, you should be silent from now until well past Qods Day.
KARROUBI: No.


Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, while arguably now in supporting roles, kept up a steady stream of information and exhortation through their Facebook pages. Only former President Khatami has retreated into silence in recent days.

2) SENIOR CLERICS: No fresh statements yesterday; however, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's Sunday message condemning the transformation of the Islamic Republic into a "military state" spread rapidly. And the family of Imam Khomenei made their position clear, from greetings of freed detainees to the filing of charges against the pro-Government newspaper Kayhan.

A very observant Iranian friend offers this important sentiment, "The ulama [Islamic scholars] are now uniting against this Government."

3) HASHEMI RAFSANJANI: The position of "The Shark", read through last night's statement on Qods (Jerusalem) Day, is in the eye of the beholder. Are the former President's words to be read as a straightforward invocation for Iranians to support the Palestinian people? Or is the message, with its reference to "an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government", to be applied closer to home?

My reaction is that Rafsanjani has cleverly put out the possibility of an endorsement of opposition while being able to respond, if pressed, "No, I didn't say that." The important dimension, however, is not my reaction but that of the millions who learn of this statement. If they interpret it as support for the cause, then the challenge to the regime will have been bolstered.

4) THE IRANIAN PEOPLE: So how many Iranians are behind the Green movement and/or its allies? How many are not "for" it but happy to stand by, despite Government injunctions to stand firm against a "velvet coup"? I'm a fool but not foolish enough to venture an answer.

Two well-informed Iranian friends discussed this with me yesterday and offered this: the number of Iranians seeking meaningful change has not diminished since 12 June. Some of those who had no defined opinion three months ago have moved behind the President; others have either been convinced by the opposition or alienated from the Government. But I think they, like me, are holding their breath for Friday.

Still I think it's safe to reaffirm, as we put forth yesterday, "The Protest Goes On". The signs were strong enough to kick what was supposed to be Monday's showcase event --- the 5th Tehran trial --- to kick the sidelines. Despite the prosecution's strident repetition of foreign-led/cyber-driven counter-revolution, complete with another "confession" --- this one from Abdollah Momeni --- the general reaction seemed to be a giant yawn.

Indeed, if the Government was sending out signals, they were of worry rather than confidence. Consider the specific references in the trial to the power of "Facebook" to corrupt the Iranian public and the attention to Mir Hossein Mousavi's IT staff. That is an indication that the regime is considered not only about Karroubi's high-profile Web outlets but about the alternative channels, including the Facebook sites (which the Government tried to hack earlier in this crisis but which now appear to be safe from demolition), set up by the Mousavi campaign.

And then there was last night's final act. Far from being secure in its position after the criticism of the day, the Government lashed out and arrested the three grandsons of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. While this is a display of power, it is a power which is not assured but spiteful. It shows not deliberation --- as in last week's attempt to break the Mousavi and Karroubi campaigns --- but a hot-headed anger and concern.

Long-term developments, short-term challenge. I'll stand by yesterday's conclusion.

Qods Day is three days away.

The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

NEW Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Latest Iran Video: The Allegations of Detainee Abuse
Iran: The Protest Goes On
Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull — Storm?

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2110 GMT: On the day after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denounced Iran's "military state", his three grandsons --- Mohammad Mehdi, Mohammad Ali Montazeri, and Mohammad Sadegh --- have been arrested.

2045 GMT: Over to You. What do you think Hashemi Rafsanjani is intending for Qods Day? We've posted a translation of his statement today, including his reference to "an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government".

1910 GMT: Got It in One. Our prediction at 1450 GMT: "the Speaker of the Parliament asked Karroubi to please refrain from taking to the streets this Friday on Qods Day, promising in return a genuine Parliamentary review of the claims of detainee abuse."

From Rouydad News: "Larijani asked Karoubi to keep quiet for a while. Karoubi said I will die but I won't keep quiet."

1830 GMT: Did Rafsanjani Just Bless the (Green) Cause? Our sharp readers will have noted our caution in the previous entry. While Hashemi Rafsanjani had asked Iranians to march on Friday, he had referred to the cause of Palestine.

The Internet is buzzing, however, with the reading that the former President has now signalled that he is with the opposition. The key sentence? The Iranian version of "It is always darkest just before dawn".

1738 GMT: The website of the Supreme Leader has denied the claim that Hashemi Rafsanjani, in a talk with Ayatollah Khamenei, threatened to resign all his positions if Mehdi Karroubi was arrested.

1735 GMT: Report that Majid Nayeri of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party was released Sunday night after 89 days in prison.

1730 GMT: Hashemi Rafsanjani has issued a statement calling on people to march on Qods Day, ostensibly for the "Palestinian cause".

1450 GMT: More on the Ali Larijani-Karroubi meeting (1100 GMT). Reports indicate the discussion lasted two hours and both sides agreed not to reveal details.

For what it's worth, I'm speculating that the Speaker of the Parliament asked Karroubi to please refrain from taking to the streets this Friday on Qods Day, promising in return a genuine Parliamentary review of the claims of detainee abuse.

1410 GMT: Mehdi, Mir Hossein, Hashemi, We'll Take All of You On. Fars News is featuring three articles on today's Tehran trials. Two are the detailed recitations of Karroubi and Mousavi computer-whizzes trying to take out the system with a "velvet coup". The other, however, deserves a moment's attention: Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, is the accused culprit trying to ensure a Mousavi "victory".

1345 GMT: Khomeini --- He Once Led the System, Right? Because his family sure are giving the regime a rough time. There's the lawsuit against Kayhan newspaper (1305 GMT), yesterday's warm reception for the freed Alireza Behesti, and now the pictures are out of an equally effusive greeting for the released activist Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour.

1335 GMT: The Clerical Challenge. From this morning's analysis: "If Karroubi remains a presence and if senior clerics continue their challenge to the legitimacy of the Presidency, then the wave [of resistance] will come ashore again and again."

We've featured Karroubi already (1315 GMT). Now for the senior clerics via a letter from Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, claiming that the Islamic Republic is no longer a system led by religious tenets but a "military state".

1325 GMT: Parleman News reports that General Mohammad Moghaddam, head of the Veterans’ Section of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign, was released on Friday night. Moghaddam had been arrested on Tuesday as part of the crackdown on Mousavi and Karroubi staff investigating charges of detainee abuse.

1315 GMT: Karroubi's "Bring It On". More news to add to our morning analysis "The Protest Goes On". Mehdi Karroubi has offered a pointed response to the three-member judiciary panel that has rejected his evidence on abuse of detainees and the threat to arrest him. He has written to the Iranian people, describing the post-election events that led him to protest through his letter, initially sent to Hashemi Rafsanjani. An Iranian activist has a running summary in English on Twitter.

1305 GMT: Back after a break to an avalanche of news. The Financial Times of London reports that the Imam Khomeini Institute, run by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan, has filed a complaint against Kayhan newspaper over an editorial that alleged that the Khomeini household was infiltrated by “riotous agents”.

1110 GMT: Meanwhile, the Engagement is On; the Nuke Deadline is Off. The European Union's Javier Solana and Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of Iran's National Security Council, have decided after a morning phone call, to meet on 1 October, well after President Ahmadinejad's forthcoming in NewYork City.

An EA correspondent: "The venue of the Solana-Jalili meeting is not clear, but it appears that United Nations General Assembly meeting, as well as Obama's informal September deadline, can now be classified as irrelevant in the nuclear battle between Iran and the West."

1100 GMT: What is Ali Larijani Saying to Mehdi Karroubi? The Speaker of the Parliament is meeting this afternoon with Karroubi at the Parliament building; Qodratollah Alikhani, the secretary-general of Karroubi's Etemade Melli party, is also in attendance.

The meeting was requested by Larijani. So a question, from an EA correspondent, "Has he been ordered by the Supreme Leader to instill some 'reason' into Karroubi?

0940 GMT: Oops. Much credit to The New York Times for persisting in coverage of the internal Iran situation when others have walked away (CNNWatch: six days and counting since their website had a story). Unfortunately, this morning's article by Nazila Fathi on the release of chief Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti goes astray: "[He] has been released in what appears to be a sign of retreat by the hard-core conservative authorities running Iran."

Retreat? I would love to concur but, pre-Qods Day and amidst a new trial, the threats against Mehdi Karroubi, and arrests of other activists, this is more a re-drawing of battle lines (see our separate analysis).

0930 GMT: Prediction Fulfilled (Within Two Hours). From our morning analysis: "The regime can now offer token concessions on investigations — a few officials reprimanded for Kahrizak prison, a prominent prisoner released on bail — while maintaining control of the process." Well, this just in from Press TV:

The Iranian judiciary panel looking into post-election events says its work is not over, despite having rejected claims that prisoners were sexually abused. "The three-member panel is still active. Its first report was about claims made by [Mehdi] Karroubi," Iran's Chief Prosecutor Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei said during a Sunday night televised interview.

“However, the panel is still investigating other issues such the [attack on Tehran] University dormitories and the events that took place in Kahrizak [prison],” added the prosecutor, who is one of the three panel members.

0825 GMT: New Media and Old Journalists. A happy coincidence to replace my unhappiness with the recent column by Roger Cohen mis-understanding New Media and reducing the Iranian people to helpless bystanders. Mahasti Afshar has a must-read corrective, "Twitter is Now All I Have", in The Huffington Post.

0815 GMT: Reuters, drawing on the Iranian Republic News Agency account, has noted the trial. There are six defendants today, including activist Abdollah Momeni. Fars continues to offer the fullest account, now aiming at the "IT staff of Mir Hossein Mousavi".

0705 GMT: The 5th Tehran trial has begun, and here are the buzzwords, courtesy of Fars News: "velvet coup", "psychological warfare", and "cyber-space pathology".

The prosecution's rhetoric is familiar and, to be honest, a bit tiresome. This, however, raises an eyebrow on the Iran Government's perception of the power of social media (are you reading, Roger Cohen?): "25 million Iranian users use the network site Facebook and have been able to contact 200 million people in cyberspace". Some Iranian media had used these networks for "agitation" of "incorrect actions".

0655 GMT: The story this morning is likely to be the 5th Tehran trial of post-election detainees. The symbolism is clear, after last week's high-profile attacks on Mousavi and Karroubi campaigns and attempts to quash any investigation of the abuse of detainees: We're in Charge Here.

Yet, for all the drama of its move, the Government --- at least in my view --- has not succeeding in quashing the Green opposition. We've posted a special analysis, "The Protest Goes On".

The Government's confrontation with the opposition still has some carrot on the stick. One piece of news from yesterday that we wanted to confirm: the human rights lawyer Mohammad Ali Dadkhah has been released on $500,000 bail.

The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised

NOW POSTED Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers
Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing

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2220 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President (Continued)? Earlier today (1125 GMT) we noted that the head of judiciary seemed to be aiming at those who went "beyond the law" because of the "false claim" of electoral fraud. Another snippet of the interview is even more dramatic, as Larijani denounces those who have brought “great costs to the Islamic system" with their opposition.

2020 GMT: More on Ayatollahs Take a Stand? (1540 GMT) Some interesting developments from the Sunday meeting of senior clerics in Qom that we have been following. Ayatollah Golpaygani wrote a letter criticising the Ahmadinejad Cabinet; the Supreme Leader replied sharply, effectively prohibiting the Ayatollah from "interfering" in Government issues. Meanwhile, the Qom meeting has asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, based in Najaf in Iraq, to travel to Iran for discussions and Grand Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani has expressed regret for congratulating Ahmadinejad on his election victory.

2010 GMT: Report that Sadegh Noroozi, head of political council of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party, has been released.

1850 GMT: Bemoans?! Our friends at Press TV show their respect for the Mousavi statement: "Mousavi bemoans arrest of top aides, urges calm".

1840 GMT: Remember our emerging assessment that the biggest challenge for President Ahmadinejad may be governing Iran, especially handling the economy, rather than confronting the opposition? This from Press TV: "The value of Iran's oil products exports has plunged by 51 percentage points in the first half of the current Iranian year due to the global economic downturn."

1815 GMT: A Correction. We reported earlier (0920 GMT) that Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was arrested yesterday. In fact, there has been no confirmation of Baghi's arrest although the Association's offices were shut down.

1810 GMT: Quick! Look Over There! I suspect international media will be absorbed by this story, rather than any international developments in Iran, until the Supreme Leader's speech on Friday. From Press TV: "Amid international calls on Iran to engage the West over its nuclear program, the country presents the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with its latest package of proposals to tackle global issues."

1800 GMT: CNNFail/TwitterSuccess. I know, I risk being repetitive but this exchange, over the arrest of Alireza Beheshti, has to be noted to be believed:

(1330 GMT) verypissedoff: Why are CNN & ABC silent? #iranelection Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained
[The Reuters story was posted at 1251 GMT. Enduring America ran it as an urgent update, following Twitter to the Mowj-e-Sabz website, at 1945 GMT on Wednesday.]

(1655 GMT) rosemaryCNN Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained, website says

Despite the fact that Rosemary Church, one of CNN's anchors, finally acknowledged the story almost 24 hours after it happened, CNN's website still has no reference to the far-from-minor development.

This is in no way a slapdown of Rosemary Church, who does good work and has used Twitter (unlike others in the media) to interact with others rather than for self-promotion of her and her network. However, based on the last 72 hours, let alone the last three months, I will take my stand against anyone who says Twitter is merely a diversion which should be set aside in the work of "real" journalists.

1540 GMT: Ayatollahs Taking a Stand? We reported on Monday about a meeting in Qom of several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics including, Ayatollahs Golpaygani, Makarem-Shirazi, Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, on “practical steps against the coup government”. Now the Green movement's website, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that the clerics are pressing their challenge against an "illegitimate" government, including its selection of female ministers, despite an attempt by the Supreme Leader through Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi to check the opposition.

1420 GMT: We have posted a translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi advisors in a separate entry.

1400 GMT: Another Arrest. In addition to the detentions on Tuesday of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, Etemade Melli website editor Mohammad Davari, security forces arrested Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, a former IRGC commander and head of the veteran’s faction of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, at his home.

Ozlati-Moqaddam, who formerly served in the IRGC political bureau alongside Hossein Shariatmadari and Hossein Safar-Harandi, was arrested on Tuesday.

1330 GMT: A slow period has been broken by the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi. Condemning the arrests of Alireza Beheshti, his top advisor, and Mortreza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s top advisor, he warns people that “more difficult” days are on the way and advising them to be calm and remain careful and alert. At the same time, Mousavi is asking them to not be intimidated by "the coup government", as the regime's "pathetic acts" are doomed to fail like their previous efforts.

1140 GMT: Hours before he was arrested yesterday, Mehdi Karroubi's aide Morteza Alviri, who was also a member of the Karroubi-Mousavi committees investigating detentions, gave an interview to Rooz Online (translation by HomyLafayette):

The regime's actions have pushed political activity out of parties and into homes and within the population....Silence is not acquiescence. There is a bomb within the hearts of the people, and it can explode at any time....I still believe that fraud took place in the election. The country is in a state of martial law.

1125 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President? The head of Iran's judiciary has said that the "false claim" of election fraud led some people to go "beyond the law", adding, "The life of our social system is dependent on law enforcement."

Larijani was vague beyond this, for example, on detentions and trials, but I wonder if the statement could be read as implicit acceptance of the Ahmadinejad line.

1040 GMT: It's All about Us (outside Iran). The perils of an attention span which is all about what Iran means for "us" rather than what is happening inside Iran is all too clear in Simon Tisdall's blunt statement today in The Guardian of London: "If anyone still wonders what happened to the Iranian revolution of 2009, the answer is: the hardliners won."

Even a quick glance at EA's analyses, and those of other sites like Anonymous Iran and Keeping the Change, complicates Tisdall's assertions. Who exactly are his "hardliners"? Ahmadinejad? The Revolutionary Guard? The Supreme Leader? All of the above? And has the opposition just evaporated in the face of measures such as yesterday's raids?

These are trifles, however, because Tisdall is not really concerned with anything beyond a superficial reference to the internal situation. His focus is "the difficulties inherent in dealing with Tehran". Nuclear programme. Sanctions. "Soft power". All of which leads him into the cul-de-sac:

One is to admit the Israelis may be right in arguing that military action is the only sure way to hinder or stop Iran's nuclear advances. The other is to do nothing – and hope that Iran's repeated assurances that it does not seek the atom bomb are true.

As bleak as the picture may be in Iran after the last 48 hours, it's far better than this simplifying of "our" options by reducing the Iranian people to bystanders and pawns.

0920 GMT: A Far-from-Incidental Note. The Mousavi-led Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners and Mehdi Karroubi's operations were not the only organisations targeted in the last 48 hours. Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was also arrested yesterday. Baghi's office was searched and documents and equipment were taken by security forces.

0825 GMT: MediaWatch. Both New York Times and Washington Post have articles on yesterday's raid of Karroubi offices, although they only briefly mention the later arrest of Alireza Beheshti. The Los Angeles Times, normally in the lead of US-based coverage, get tangled up: anxious to feature their journalistic coup of an interview with Mehdi Karroubi, they reduce news of the raids and arrests of his staff to an insert paragraph.

CNN, continuing its poor coverage even as its correspondents pile onto Twitter to promote themselves, do not notice the Beheshti arrest. Al Jazeera also misses the Beheshti news, however, and the BBC, however, is even worse: distracted by Iran's promotional claim that it is submitting proposals on its nuclear programme today, they see nothing at all inside Iran.

0820 GMT: It appears that, with its offices raided and its editor-in-chief arrested, the Etemade Melli website (which includes Saham News) is suspended. There have been no new posts since 3:25 p.m. local time yesterday.

0800 GMT: The Mousavi response to the raid on their office and later arrest of chief advisor Alireza Beheshti? This was posted three hours ago on Facebook: "Coup gov.! We R the Media & wont let our leaders be taken hostage silently.Go Green & Bring #iranelection back on top:World will be watching /"

0750 GMT: Almost lost in yesterday's chaos was the statement of the commander of the Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari, pressing the foreign-led "soft war" pretext: “Iran's great territory, population, military might, and unique geographical location in the Middle East have turned it into a strong power, and political experts in Western countries know that they cannot overwhelm Iran by launching a military attack or hard war."

Saffari claimed that a “media war” had stirred up “civil disobedience”, asserting, “The US strategy to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on soft measures," even as it continues threats to launch a military attack.

The rhetoric is far from new, of course. What is significant is how the IRGC is pushing it less than a week after the Supreme Leader denied that foreign powers were able to pursue their "soft war" because of the strength of the Iranian system.

0730 GMT: It looks like folks in Iran are picking up the pieces from yesterday's dramatic events, so we've spent the time on a detailed analysis, "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move", considering the significance of the raids and arrests. Our easier conclusion is that this is an attempt to break the Green movement and back down Hashemi Rafsanjani. The tricker reading is whether the President and Revolutionary Guard have done this as an assertion of authority against the Supreme Leader. We'll be debating this throughout the day (and beyond) and welcome your comments and ideas.

Josh Shahryar is also working on an analysis for a high-profile publication; we'll keep you posted on when it appears. Meanwhile, his latest "Green Brief" summarising Tuesday's events is out.