The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
NEW Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position
The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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2010 GMT: The buzz over Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. After his appearance yesterday at the Supreme Leader's speech (analysed in a separate entry), the Islamic Republic News Agency has attacked him for his continued visits to the families of detainees (see 1510 GMT).

1535 GMT: Revelation of the Day. Rooz Online claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has ordered the Ministry of Health not to release the medical records of recently injured protesters, thus covering up the cause of their wounds.

Afternoon Update (1510 GMT): A New Act in the Crackdown? State TV has again put high-profile reformist detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on air in a two-day roundtable to explain and analyse their transgressions, no doubt re-drawing the picture of foreign-directed attempts at regime change. The trio were featured in a roundtable last month after the first wave of Tehran trials.

Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Imam Khomeini, has continued his visits to the families of post-election detainees. The visits have been seen as symbolic of Khomeini's challenge to the current Government and have resumed a day after his appearance at the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address.

Parliament Qualms? Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has again raised the prospect of a legislative clash with the President after the cease-fire that led to approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Bahonar has expressed qualms about the President's power, saying he is worried that Ahmadinejad will start changing Ministers and declaring that Parliament will force Government to abide by laws.


0820 GMT: A quiet morning, as all sides continue to manoeuvre for position. The major political story is the Supreme Leader's attempt in his speech yesterday both to stabilise his position and to push for a settlement including both the President and Hashemi Rafsanjani. We've analysed that in a separate entry, "Khamenei Scrambles for Position".

Unfortunately, this story is now beyond the comprehension of most "mainstream" media outside Iran. So, instead of considering the internal dynamics, they will be distracted this week by President Ahmadinejad's visit to New York. They will not pick up on the most important aspect of this trip, namely that Ahmadinejad will use it to show Iranian people that he is in control and that protest against him jeopardises Iran's prominent position in world affairs. (Not many people, even veteran Iran-watchers, have figured out that this is why he gave the "exclusive" interview to NBC's Anne Curry.) They will not realise that the importance of Iran's nuclear programme is more in the prestige that it gives the President, especially as he can show defiance against "Western" and Israeli attempts to curb it, than in any imminent military use.

The headlines on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning give the game away: It's Not about Iranians, It's About US. CNN blares, "Iranian leader decries Obama's missile defense plan". The BBC adds, "Khamenei denies US nuclear claims". NBC, having tried to dine out on the interview with President Ahmadinejad, falls back into the superficial with "Iran's leader says U.S. nuke accusations wrong". The New York Times avoids the pitfall by saying nothing at all. (The honourable exception is The Los Angeles Times, which recognises,"Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei Says Opposition Protests Failed".)

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei's End-of-Ramadan Speech

The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions
Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position
The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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Complementing our reading of the dynamic between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, Pedestrian summarises the post of blogger Agh Bahman. Bahman also adds useful thoughts on the positions of Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, and Mohammad Khatami:


Everyone has been criticizing Rafsanjani and Hassan Khomeini for showing up at the Fetr prayer yesterday, and I just didn’t think the criticism was founded. We’ve had very few “real” politicians in our recent history, people willing to bend and compromise and adapt to circumstances. And I think Hashemi Rafsanjani, for all his shortcomings, is of this rare breed. Agh Bahman captures it perfectly (this is a summary of his post):

What got the most attention in yesterday’s prayer was the presence of Rafsanjani and Hassan Khomeini, and after them, Nateq Nouri in line behind the leader and beside Ahmadinejad. Many went so far as to interpret this as Rafsanjani’s betrayal of the people’s movement. When I got up and heard the news, I too was surprised. But when I thought a little more, my opinion changed completely. If you felt like me, read this, maybe your opinion will change too.

The Fetr prayer is one of the few state events which practically all high officials attend. Personally, I don’t remember any other even in which all officials participate. I think not showing up at Fetr prayer is like saying you don’t want to pray behind the leader. Did Rafsanjani do anything in the past three months that meant this remotely, so that now, showing up in the prayer is surprising?

In the past three months, Rafsanjani  did not attend two events which he was expected to attend: the two inauguration ceremonies. Both of these events had to do with Ahmadinejad and giving legitimacy to his government and this Rafsanjani did not want to do. Notice, just a few days after those ceremonies, he went to the goodbye and welcoming ceremonies for Shahroudi and Sadeq Larijani, the previous and current head of the judiciary. Probably one reason for his attendance was to show his respect to Shahroudi, but in any case, the judiciary head is appointed by the leader, and if Rafsanjani had reached a point where he wasn’t willing to pray behind the leader, he shouldn’t have showed up there either. And of course, Rafsanjani did not attend the two Friday prayers led by the leader, which was natural. From what I remember, unless Rafsanjani was prayer leader, he never attended the prayer  no matter who was leading. [notice, Rafsanjani sees himself, or at least used to see himself, as man #2. So just as the leader is not willing to pray behind anyone, and thus never shows up, neither does Rafsanjani].

Of course Rafsanjani did something else yesterday which didn’t get anyone’s attention and that was his absence in the leader’s meeting with the officials which takes place every year after the Fetr prayers in the leader’s beyt [the religious center adjacent to the leader’s home I think, or since “beyt” means “home” in Arabic, it’s supposed to be adjacent to his home, as was Khomeini’s, even if it isn’t.] From the photos we have of yesterday’s meeting, only the heads of the three branches of government are sitting behind the leader and Rafsanjani is very noticeably absent.

I went and found the photos from previous years. In the last four years, Rafsanjani was only missing in 2005. He was there last year and the year before that. I think by not going, he’s sending a message to the leader that he’s only willing to participate in events so far as he is formally obligated and no more. For instance, in a few days when the annual meeting of the Assembly of Experts with the leader takes place, I think Rafsanjani will go, and will sit beside the leader.

And now for Seyed Hassan Khomeini

I think Hasan Khomeini has a similar circumstance [as Rafsanjani]. He was in the first line of prayer every year at Fetr. In the past three months, he’s done nothing and said nothing which would mean that he’s turning his back on the leader. Khomeini showed his complaint out in the opinion on two occasions: not showing up at the inauguration, and not going to meet with Ahmadinejad in Imam Khoemini’s masoleum. Again, both these acts showed his disregard for Ahmdinejad and the legitimacy of his government.

And in fact, after the prayer, Khomeini did something that would obviously show his position: he went to see the family of Mohsen Mirdamadi (the chief officer of the Participation Front who is prison, and whose son was taken into custody just a few days ago) and Javad Emam (a recently released member of the Mojahedin party).

The Great Absence: Khatami

I think the biggest news from the prayer was not the presence of Rafsanjani or Khomeini, but the absence of Khatami.  Khatami too was first in line every year, and his absence sends a very clear signal: that he no longer accepts the leadership of this leader. Karoubi and Mousavi have been very vocal and have gone very far, and anyways, they were never seen in the first line of prayer these past few years. We can guess that they were absent for the same reasons as Khatami, but since Khatami was always first in line, his absence is much more noticed.

I should also add that I think one of the people to whom the leader’s words were address was Khatami. He said that confessions against other people in court was not credible. In court, a lot was said against Khatami. Against Karoubi and Mousavi too, but most was said about Khatami. I think the leader intended to appease Khatami with those words.

Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position

The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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Enduring America, 19 September: "[On 12 June the Supreme Leader] put his own authority on the line, and much of the story of the last three months has been whether he ensured or damaged that authority. So absence [from Qods Day] comes not in the midst of certitude of his Supreme Leadership but in the question of whether Khamenei is now scrambling for position vs. his own President."

Because the speech hadn't been given much advance publicity, in contrast to his Friday Prayer appearances, the attention to the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address yesterday was initially a trickle, especially outside Iran. The horribly misleading Associated Press summary dominated the news cycle for hours, and later reports by Western agencies flowed into diversions such as the rhetoric on Israel and Khamenei's purported comments on the Iranian nuclear programme.

For those clued up on the internal Iranian situation, the trickle turned into a torrent of significance, especially with the appearance of former President Hassan Rafsanjani, a stare away from President Ahmadinejad, at the event. This was not just a Supreme Leader declaring that he had the seen the crescent of the moon. This was Ayatollah Khamenei trying to shore up his shaky position by bringing together the current President and "Establishment" figures such as Rafsanjani.

While I would not go as far as to say a deal between Khamenei and Rafsanjani was struck before the speech, I am persuaded that the Supreme Leader's rather curious declaration that confessions in trials cannot be used against detainees (curious because it did not fit the rest of the address and was not featured in the Iranian media, either that of the state or the opposition) was a pointed political offer. It does not mean that opposition leaders are safer today --- the assertion of the AP mis-story --- for there are other methods that can be used to pressure and "convict" them. It does mean that the confessions in the Tehran trials charging Rafsanjani's family with corruption can be tucked away.

That is, if Rafsanjani plays his part and backs off a challenge to the Presidency and the system. No one noticed yesterday that the next important event, as important as President Ahmadinejad's self-promotion in New York, is the meeting of the Assembly of Experts tomorrow. That gathering, delayed from August, will be headed by Rafsanjani, and it will include many of the senior clerics who have increasingly come out against the Government.

So here was a potential platform, coming four days after the Qods Day demonstrations, for Rafsanjani to make a public stand, forcing an initial battle in the Assembly and beyond that with Ahmadinejad and allies. Within the broader language of the Eid-al-Fitr address, trying to put the opposition beyond acceptability because of its direction by "foreign agents" like the US and Israel, Khamenei was offering Hashemi an alternative to a public move at the Assembly.

Beyond that step, however, is a snapshot of the Supreme Leader's shaky position. When he offered a similar deal to Rafsanjani on 19 June, Khamenei was doing so at the head of events. He was the one who had proclaimed that Ahmadinejad could be President, he was the one who had called on Iran to stand against the opposition, he was the one who could say as Supreme Leader that religion supported the Iranian political system.

Three months, he does not lead but responds. He is trying to counter the challenge of his own clerical establishment. He has failed to stamp his authority on a President who seems determined to fight a battle to a bloody political end, whatever the cost to the legitimacy of an Islamic Republic. And he cannot stop those tens of thousands coming out on the streets against that President and, to an extent, against him.

On 5 August, when the Supreme Leader invoked his authority to inaugurate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he was the one who stood tall as the President approached awkwardly and kissed Khamenei on the shoulder. Today, it is Khamenei who stumbles with hand outstretched.

Barack Obama's Message to Muslims: "Eid Mubarak!"

Video/Analysis: Obama’s Statement on Jewish New Year

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United States President Barack Obama has congratulated Muslims in the U.S. and around the world on the occasion of Eid-al-Fitr. Here is Obama's statement:

As Muslims in the United States and around the world complete the month of Ramadan and celebrate Eid-ul-Fitr, Michelle and I would like to extend our personal greetings on this joyous occasion. Eid is a time to celebrate the completion of 30 days and nights of devotion. But even on this festive occasion, Muslims remember those less fortunate, including those impacted by poverty, hunger, conflict, and disease. Throughout the month, Muslim communities collect and distribute zakat-ul-fitr so that all Muslims are able to participate in this day of celebration. As I said in Cairo, my Administration is working to ensure that Muslims are able to fulfill their charitable obligations not just during Ramadan, but throughout the year. On behalf of the American people, we congratulate Muslims in the United States and around the world on this blessed day. Eid Mubarak.

The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

NEW Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
Iran: Montazeri Letter to Islamic Clerics (14 September)
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

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2030 GMT: An Artistic Clash for the Supreme Leader? A colleague writes with an essential correction of our first item today (0710 GMT) on Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting yesterday with ""artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers":

"The English version of Khamenei's speech to the artists actually doesn't reflect what the meeting was about. It wasn't for him to give them any guidance but rather, as Fars News fascinating account of it reveals, it was meant for the various artists to speak 'frankly' with Khamenei. While Fars New tries to whitewash some of the conversations that the artists had with Khamenei, it is clear even by their own censored account that it was a raucous meeting and that at least a couple of the artists, including Majid Majidi (who accoring to Fars News breaks down into tears) conveyed some kind of oppositional sentiment. One filmmaker when asked to speak says he doesn't feel well and sits down. Another when told there is no time for him to speak, after he had prepared a talk complains, 'You keep contacting me for a couple of days asking me to come and speak my mind and now you tell me there's no time?'"

1855 GMT: Really? According to Peykeiran, the Supreme Leader's representative with the Revolutionary Guard has warned that the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi would turn them into martyrs for the Green opposition.

Given that the Supreme Leader supposedly signed the order for Karroubi's arrest two weeks ago, this is a bit confusing. Then again, as our readers are debating in their comments, Ayatollah Khamenei's position may be far from secure.

1800 GMT: Easy Does It. In a measured, even careful, interview with Tabnak, Hashemi Rafsanjani has downplayed his absence from leading Friday Prayers on Qods Day for the first time in a quarter-century: "It is not necessary after 30 years that I should lead the prayers."

1555 GMT: Why are tents being erected around the main campus of Tehran University, where this Friday's prayers will be held?

1545 GMT: Make of this what you will: the Iranian Government has declared national holidays on Saturday and Monday, the day before and after the celebration of the end of Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr.

1310 GMT: Cyber-charge. Talk about a story turning in a few hours. The opposition's aggressive fightback on the Web continues: Mowj-e-Sabz has launched an English-language website.

1215 GMT: Cyber-bounce. Indeed, after our worry this morning (0950 GMT) about a drop in information via the Web, there is a bit of a resurgence. Mehdi Karroubi seems to have a new website for his statements and news. Is this an alternative for the Etemade Melli site, which is still down?

News is also being posted on tagheer.ir.

1200 GMT: If the Iranian regime is trying to block news in and out of Iran, the effort is incomplete. Fereshteh Ghazi has interviewed Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, who highlights the clerical resistance: "The authorities know [their] pressures have no effect on my position and action or those of Qom scholars." He adds, in relation to the arrest of his children and the family members of other clerics on Monday, "My sons and the sons of Mr. Nazemzadeh and Mr. Ahmadi aren't clerics, so why are they tried in clerics' court?"(summary in English via Ghazi's Twitter account)

Twitter traffic from inside Iran is also picking up.

1120 GMT: The US network NBC is interviewing President Ahmadinejad today and broadcasting the discussion on tomorrow morning's Today programme.

1110 GMT: The Mousavi Facebook page is still active, just posting the statement of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomenei, inviting all Iranians to participate in the rally on Qods Day "a day...for the oppressed to fight oppressors and tyranny".

1100 GMT: Morning MediaFail. CNN ($199/story) are not eligible, since they no longer have news from inside Iran. Instead, the award goes to Robert Tait and The Guardian of London. Amidst all the tension in advance of Qods Day, the confusion over Friday Prayers, the raids, the arrests, the Karroubi letters, the protests by senior clerics, their story today?

"Chinese jeans bearing name of God anger Iranians".

In their quasi-defence, the prominent notation "Read This in Chinese" is a clue that The Guardian's market attention is far away from Tehran.

1050 GMT: Cyber-war. Internet traffic from Iranians inside Iran is almost at a standstill this morning. Nothing is coming through via Twitter and contacts also remove no interaction on Facebook.

Etemade Melli/Saham News and Norooz are down. Mowj-e-Sabz and Kaleme are both up.

0950 GMT: Correcting an oversight. We have reported the arrest of the three grandchildren of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri on Monday. The children of Ayatollah Hossein Mousavi Tabrizi,were also arrested.

The catalyst for the arrests may have been an Iftar at the house of Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i. EA has received information that this Iftar, where reformist clerics and their families gathered, angered the regime and also led to the filing of a court action by President Ahmadinejad's office against Sane'i.

0935 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency carries the short item that President Ahmadinejad will introduce Ahmad Khatami, who will give the Friday Prayer address this week.

0925 GMT: Associated Press is claiming, from Iranian state radio, that the Government has confirmed Ahmad Khatami will lead Qods Day prayers.

0710 GMT: Yesterday's confusion over Qods Day continues. While Tuesday was a pretty good one for the Green leadership, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami signalled that they would join forces with Mehdi Karroubi, the Government's disarray over Friday prayers was never resolved. We've tried to see the events in wider perspective, leading up to Qods Day, in a separate analysis, "Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces".

Rather than offer any specific guidance, the Supreme Leader spent Tuesday telling "artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers" that they should be putting out proper art. His reference point was not the current internal conflict but the 1980-1988 war with Iraq: "The eight-year Sacred Defense was the embodiment of outstanding characteristics, prominent cultural values, and lofty beliefs, and those who recount it in an artistic manner are like a mirror reflecting the manifestation of splendor and glory."

If there was contemporary resonance in Ayatollah Khamenei's address, it may be in this cryptic injunction to artists that "their sensitive views should not create a spirit of despair in people".