The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
NEW Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position
The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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2010 GMT: The buzz over Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. After his appearance yesterday at the Supreme Leader's speech (analysed in a separate entry), the Islamic Republic News Agency has attacked him for his continued visits to the families of detainees (see 1510 GMT).

1535 GMT: Revelation of the Day. Rooz Online claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has ordered the Ministry of Health not to release the medical records of recently injured protesters, thus covering up the cause of their wounds.

Afternoon Update (1510 GMT): A New Act in the Crackdown? State TV has again put high-profile reformist detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on air in a two-day roundtable to explain and analyse their transgressions, no doubt re-drawing the picture of foreign-directed attempts at regime change. The trio were featured in a roundtable last month after the first wave of Tehran trials.

Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Imam Khomeini, has continued his visits to the families of post-election detainees. The visits have been seen as symbolic of Khomeini's challenge to the current Government and have resumed a day after his appearance at the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address.

Parliament Qualms? Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has again raised the prospect of a legislative clash with the President after the cease-fire that led to approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Bahonar has expressed qualms about the President's power, saying he is worried that Ahmadinejad will start changing Ministers and declaring that Parliament will force Government to abide by laws.


0820 GMT: A quiet morning, as all sides continue to manoeuvre for position. The major political story is the Supreme Leader's attempt in his speech yesterday both to stabilise his position and to push for a settlement including both the President and Hashemi Rafsanjani. We've analysed that in a separate entry, "Khamenei Scrambles for Position".

Unfortunately, this story is now beyond the comprehension of most "mainstream" media outside Iran. So, instead of considering the internal dynamics, they will be distracted this week by President Ahmadinejad's visit to New York. They will not pick up on the most important aspect of this trip, namely that Ahmadinejad will use it to show Iranian people that he is in control and that protest against him jeopardises Iran's prominent position in world affairs. (Not many people, even veteran Iran-watchers, have figured out that this is why he gave the "exclusive" interview to NBC's Anne Curry.) They will not realise that the importance of Iran's nuclear programme is more in the prestige that it gives the President, especially as he can show defiance against "Western" and Israeli attempts to curb it, than in any imminent military use.

The headlines on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning give the game away: It's Not about Iranians, It's About US. CNN blares, "Iranian leader decries Obama's missile defense plan". The BBC adds, "Khamenei denies US nuclear claims". NBC, having tried to dine out on the interview with President Ahmadinejad, falls back into the superficial with "Iran's leader says U.S. nuke accusations wrong". The New York Times avoids the pitfall by saying nothing at all. (The honourable exception is The Los Angeles Times, which recognises,"Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei Says Opposition Protests Failed".)

The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics

Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar's Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader's Speech
Iran: Questions on Prayer Day

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2200 GMT: We have received further information on both the Rah-e-Sabz and New York Times stories on the Khamenei order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi and on the Rafsanjani "retreat" because of military pressure.

The information indicates that one of Hashemi Rafsanjani's colleagues has confirmed the Karroubi arrest story to one of the best reporters covering Iran. We are therefore taking the story very seriously.

More to come in a special analysis on Saturday.

2120 GMT: An EA correspondent picks up the following from the Rah-e-Sabz story on Rafsanjani's apparent retreat: "He went as far as to say that Karroubi's arrest warrant should not have been issued by Khamenei himself and that the presence of the IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] in the political sphere will make matters 'complicated'. Khamenei apparently reacted with a long silence to this remark."

2100 GMT: Rumour of the Day. Rah-e-Sabz reports that an "informed source" claims that the Supreme Leader has issued an order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi. Almost as significant is the claim, from the same report, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has told members of the Center for Strategic Research of the Expediency Council, about a meeting between himself and Ayatollah Khamenei: “I will back away from everything, they are not granting me permission to speak at the Friday prayers anymore.”

The New York Times, which picked up the story, has added from "a person close to Mr. Rafsanjani" that "the order was issued at least two weeks ago".

1945 GMT: Journalist Mohammad Hasan Fallahizadeh, who had been on hunger strike in Evin Prison, was released on Wednesday on medical grounds.

1520 GMT: The Karroubi Response. A "source close to Mehdi Karoubi" has told Rooz Online's English-language website:

Mr. Karoubi was taken back over the closure of the committee because he believed that the two meetings that he had with judiciary officials on the subject were very constructive.If the committee continues its work with Mr. Karoubi, then many issues will come to light. New issues are surfacing with every passing day. They wish to cut Mr. Karoubi from the people.

That is a straightforward reaction, but the emerging question for us is whether Karroubi comes to the forefront to lead the protests on Qods Day next Friday. The source's comments were focused on the narrower question of the abuse investigation: "Mr. Karoubi shall continue his pursue of the cases of the victims of the post election atrocities....The issue is very clear: Crimes have taken place and the Islamic system is responsible to investigate them."

1515 GMT: More of the Hard Line. The Supreme Leader's address was not the only tough talk on Friday. The leader of prayers in Qom has wondered why Mir Hossein Mousavi has not been arrested and called for the "voice" of the Green movement to be "strangled" on Qods Day.

1500 GMT: Back after an afternoon break. Radio Farda has posted a summary of the Karroubi letter to head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani (English text in separate entry), emphasising Karroubi's declaration that the Revolutionary Guard has hidden documentation of rapes of detainees.

1120 GMT: Agence France Presse's take on the speech: Confrontation. They use this extract, "Those who draw swords against the regime will be confronted. Differences of views should not lead to conflicts....The policy of the regime is to work with the majority. But if opposition groups have ideas that are against the nation's security and the principles of the regime, they will be confronted."

1115 GMT: Irony of the Day (so far). I'm just checking in after a trip to Manchester --- thanks to Mike Dunn and Chris Emery for covering the Supreme Leader's speech.

Reading the updates, 0855 GMT stands out: "Supreme Leader recalls the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution."

Hmm, would that be the same Ayatollah Taleghani whose memorial service was initially blocked, for the first time in 30 years, by the regime earlier this week?

0935 GMT: And it's over. The Supreme Leader ends a hardline, but to some observers nervous, performance with a final warning against any Quds Day demonstrations. A full analysis will follow once we have collected our thoughts..

0930 GMT: Great Britain singled out for more than 200 years of experience of evil in Iran.

0925 GMT: Khamenei recalls another momentous in Iran's modern history. He is now recalling Iran's victory over the US in the 1998 soccer World Cup!  "Iran's goal is a goal for us"!

0920 GMT: State TV showing crowds outside Friday Prayers singing 'Death to England'.

0910 GMT: VIPs present - Larijani Ali and Sadegh Larijani, Rahim Safavi, Hassan Rowhani, Int. Minister Heydar Moslehi. President Ahmadinejad seated next to Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, former judiciary chief.

0906 GMT: Khamenei justifies the crack down..."All States, even European ones, react with force to violent threats. We accept criticism, but not threats."

0900 GMT: A nod to tolerance clearly setting up an attack on dissent. "Differences in opinion are valid and accepted within the framework of the system. The system will not react against anyone in this case; people who do not want to wreck the peace of the regime, and of society will not be dealt with."

0857 GMT: "There have been divisions throughout the revolution", some costly,. others not for the revolution, Khomeini dealt with them at all levels, people who were revolutionaries but that we could no longer work with." The Supreme Leader appears to be trying to reassert his leadership of the Revolution's legacy and the current political system.

0855 GMT: Supreme Leader starts the second sermon by recalling the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution.

0850 GMT: Khamenei has the whole crowd weeping:  Suspicions that Ali Larijani's tears are less than convincing. Crowd is big, although they are yet to show the sorrounding streets.

0845 GMT: The SL is winding up the first sermon, the Quranic one, but building up to a possibly confronational second sermon: "Imam Ali said "after tollerance, Ali drew the sword"

0840 GMT: 'What would the Imam Ali do?' The Supreme Leader is drawing heavily on themese of 'spirituality' with particular emphasis on Imam's Ali's example.

0830 GMT: The Speech begins and the Supreme Leader warns of the "dangers" of the seperation of religion from politics. Politics becomes "immoral" in that case, just like in the "secular western".

0430 GMT: We've prepared for today's big events, the Supreme Leader's address at Friday prayers in Tehran, with a quick preview of the issues at play both for the opposition and for the regime. And no doubt we'll be occupied today with covering and then deciphering the speech.

This should not, however, ignore another development. The Green movement has not folded in the face of the toughest strikes on its leadership since the days after the 12 June election. Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded, with his criticism of the Government and his upholding of the "Green Path of Hopse"; the impact of this, given the restrictions on Mousavi's communications, remains to be seen.

Perhaps even more important, however, the Mehdi Karroubi network has bounced back. The Etemade Melli party website (including Saham News) has revived, against the expectations of many. Today Karroubi publishes his letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, on the investigation of the abuse of detainees. Karroubi's line is clear: the Ahmadinejad Government's raids and arrests this week were meant to stop this process, but this must not happen.

Which, of course, raises a vital question: after his recent reference to those "outside the law", does Larijani agree?

The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

Latest Iran Parliament Video: "Rig the Vote and You Go to Kahrizak" (3 September)
NEW MediaFail: How (Not) to Approach Iran's Nuclear Programme
The Latest from Iran (2 September): The Votes on the Cabinet

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1835 GMT: A reader writes to clarify the "first woman" Minister reference in the Reuters report (1645 GMT), and just now repeated by a CNN reporter: "Iran's first female minister, Mrs. F. Parsa, was appointed by the Shah to serve the Ministry of Education." Parsa was arrested by the new Islamic Republic in February 1980 and executed three months later.

1645 GMT: A bit of a lull as most of the Western media condense today's events to fit their agenda: 1) the approval of Cabinet should be linked to "an international dispute over Tehran's nuclear program"; 2) the Minister of Oil is a "relative novice"; 3) Iran has its first female Minister; 4) the Minister of Defense is wanted by Interpol for a 1994 attack in Argentina. (Reuters wins the prize for getting all of this into two paragraphs.)

But here's a wacky flashback from the morning (0808 GMT): remember the moment when an MP joked, ""If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where presumably you will be abused like other detainees]!" Well, the video is now posted in a separate entry.

1240 GMT: A top reformist in the Mousavi presidential campaign, Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi, has been released from Evin Prison, almost two months after he was detained. Aboutalebi, a former MP, is the Deputy Secretary General of the Hambastegi Party..

1220 GMT: US MediaWatch on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. The New York Times leads US media in the summary of today's developments in Parliament, "Ahmadinejad Wins Approval of Key Cabinet Slots". Michael Slackman, based in Cairo, has raised his reporting game recently, relying on the best US-based analysts, and today he picks up not only on "a victory to the beleaguered president who now has close allies overseeing key ministries of oil, interior and intelligence" but also an outcome which "appeared to serve the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who has struggled recently to try to restore credibility to his tarnished leadership and government while also trying to put the brakes on Mr. Ahmadinejad’s desire to sideline conservative rivals and monopolize power".

The quick reaction of The Los Angeles Times is surprisingly weak and even misleading. The lead sentence of "Iran's hardliners united behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today" sweeps away tensions and nuances in the struggle for power, not only with the unhelpful "hardliner" tag and the implications that all divisions are now resolved. (Compare that with our analysis, "Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet....The fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them." --- see 0845 GMT.)

The Associated Press really doesn't care about the internal situation, preferring, "President Mahmoud Ahamedinejad vowed Thursday that Iran would not bend to Western deadlines for nuclear talks after his new government won broad backing from parliament."

And CNN's website? Still nothing (see 1030 GMT).

1045 GMT: Rooz Online claims, from an "informed source", that the Ministry of Intelligence has established a team "to identify the leaks and whistle blowers that led to the revelations that some of the people who had been killed in the aftermath of the June 12 disputed presidential elections were secretly buried".

1030 GMT: We've posted a separate story on how Al Jazeera English let down its usually-high standard of coverage with an example of how not to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme.

However, this slip-up is nothing compared with CNN International's continuing (non-)coverage. One of its top on-air personalties has just tweeted, "Will have more on #Iran lawmakers approving all but 3 of Ahmad's 21 cabinet nominees."

More? I could cut off nine fingers and still be ahead of the total number of words on CNN's website about the Cabinet discussions since Sunday.

1010 GMT: An EA correspondent adds information and analysis to the demand by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a key ally of President Ahmadinejad, that Islamic Azad University be "cleaned up" so it can be "Islamic" (0520 GMT).

The Islamic Azad University was the first private university established after the Revolution and its establishment was promoted by Hashemi Rafsanjani and executed by [his brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali] Jasebi, the current head of the university. The limited capacity of state-run universities caused the IAU to become an extremely lucrative cash cow, bringing Rafsajani a lot of money and influence. Nowadays almost any town with a population of more than 150,000 people has an IAU branch.

Needless to say, Ahmadinejad and company want to appropriate the revenue and influence of the IAU, and I am convinced that all the issues of "bringing the IAU back to the main path, etc." is really just a money grab. Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani [brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani] and Jasebi have tried to prevent this power grab in their recent attempt to re-define the IAU as an endowment associated with a religious beneficiary, provoking the ire of Fars News and other Ahmadinejad supporters.

0930 GMT: Media Alert. Is this the beta version of Mehdi Karroubi's proposed new television station?

0925 GMT: Journalist Isa Saharkhiz, in a two-minute phone call to his family, has advised them that his detention has been extended another two months.

0915 GMT: Some Post-Vote Confusion. There were conflicting reports over whether Mohammad Aliabadi was confirmed or rejected as Minister of Energy (see 0840 GMT), but situation has now been clarified. Although the vote was in his favour 137-117, the number of Yes ballots was less than 1/2 of the total of 286 MPs. So he's out, and it's 18 of 21 Ministers confirmed.

The wider story, which we'll track down, is why Aliabadi was the only male nominee to take a fall.

0910 GMT: On Another Front. The Assembly of Combatant Clergy, have strongly condemned the recent accusations by Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see yesterday's updates) that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists sought the overthrow of the Supreme Leader and the Government. The clerics said they expect the new Prosecutor General to show the "proper reaction" to these lies.

0900 GMT: Tabnak has posted a summary of the vote totals (use Google Translate for the English version).

0845 GMT: The Verdict? There will be a big smile on President Ahmadinejad's face, with 19 of 21 nominees receiving votes of confidence. The only two rejections were of women: Sussan Keshavarz (education) and Fatemeh Ajorloo (welfare). The 3rd woman, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi (health), was confirmed.

Interpretation? Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet. The two rejections are politically "safe" --- to be blunt, it will be easy to frame that as a discrimination against women, rather than a smack at Ahmadinejad, and even then, Dastjerdi (to the surprise of many, I suspect) came through. Other opportunities for rejection were by-passed, even when these could have been portrayed as doubts about individiuals, rather than a fight with the President. Mirkazemi and Aliabadi survived uncertainties over the Government's approach on energy, Mehrabian was not punished for his court scandal, and Daneshjoo's recent stumble over a suspect Ph.D. was not relevant.

Whether that was because they did not want to be seen as allied with "reformists" in blocking Ministerial choices, because of the Supreme Leader's intervention, or because tensions over Ahmadinejad's post-election actions have eased remains to be seen.

Too early, for me, to declare a reconciliation within the Establishment. My preferred interpretation is that the fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them.

0840 GMT: Nominees for Ministries of Housing, Interior, and Labour have been confirmed. The nominee for Minister of Oil, Masoud Mirkazemi, scraped through 147-117, and a similar result for Minister of Energy Mohammad Aliabadi (137-117).

0835 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Welfare, Fatemeh Ajorloo, has been rejected 181-76.

Ali Akbar Mehrabian, who has provoked some controversy after being found guilty of patent fraud in a recent court case, won approval as Minister of Mines and Industry 153-103. Similarly "Dr" Kamran Daneshjoo, despite the changing, dubious status of his Ph.D. from some British university (see separate entry), has become Minister of Science after a 186-75 vote.

0830 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Education, Sussan Keshavarz, has been rejected 209-49. Keshavarz was one of three women nominated.

Reza Taqipour has been confirmed as Minister of Communications 197-62. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi was approved 194-67, and Minister of Economy Shamsodin Hosseini was confirmed 224-41. The current Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, has also received a vote of confidence, as has the new Minister of Justice, Morteza Bakhtiari.

0829 GMT: The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, began the announcement of results by thanking the Supreme Leader, whose remarks had "helped" the voting process.

0825 GMT: Parliament has voted confidence in the proposed Minister of Defence, Ahmad Vahidi.

0820 GMT: Yes, Mahmoud Did Say That. Interpret this as you will, from Iranian Labor News Agency. Ahmadinejad told the Majlis, as they prepared to vote on his Cabinet: "Parliament and government are responsible for the country and should not put this responsibility on Supreme Leader and other clerics."

Oh, yes, and "I think the members of parliament should give [foreign powers] a decisive response. A United vote to propose Cabinet is a strong punch in enemy's mouth.''

0808 GMT: Bad-Taste Parliamentary Comment of Day. One member of Parliament "joked" to a colleague, "If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where a number of detainees have died]!" State television quickly cut the nearby microphone off.

0805 GMT: Ayande News has published more details of the purported letter from the Supreme Leader calling on members of Parliament to give a full vote of confidence in the Ahmadinejad Cabinet: Khamenei declared his desire for a Yes vote to all of the President's selections, but this was not an obligation for MPs.

0800 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi has called for investigations of alleged crimes in Kahrizak Prison and in raids against University dormitories, with punishment of those found responsible.

0745 GMT: Did The President Really Say That?: According to an activist monitoring the Parliamentary discussions, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised that his Cabinet will meet with MPs every two to four weeks.

Here, however, is the statement that raises eyebrows: "We should take responsibility for running country off the shoulders of Supreme Leader." Perhaps it's a change of meaning in translation --- would the President really want to push Ayatollah Khamenei to the sidelines?

0625 GMT: Another Event to Note. The "40th Day" memorial for Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in detention in Evin Prison, will be from 2-3:30 p.m. local time (1030-1200 GMT) at Vali-e Asr Mosque in Tehran.

0615 GMT: Thanks to the Internet, you can watch the live, televised coverage of state-run IRIB 1  of today's Parliamentary discussions of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet.

0520 GMT: The Parliamentary votes of confidence in President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet should finally take place today. The last two nominees to speak, Masoud Mirkazemi (oil) and Mohammad Aliabadi (energy), have presented their cases to the Majlis.

Despite the delays and dramatic stories such as the Supreme Leader's alleged letter asking for full support for Ministers, the general situation appears to be the same as on Sunday. Up to seven Ministers, and in particular the three female nominees, may not be confirmed.

Even this story, however, will be a distant second today if a rumour spread by Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, proves to have substance. The report claims that there will be an end of Ramadan "present", with leading reformists Saeed Hajjarian, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohammad Ali Abtahi,  and Mohammad Ghoochani to be released from detentions, although others such as Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Aminzadeh will remain in jail. The article adds that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is unhappy with televised confessions and the "current trend" will be suspended.

President Ahmadinejad's religious advisor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, is not thinking of any concessions. Instead, he has said that the private Islamic Azad University, has lost its “true way” and should be brought back to the “main path”, "clean[ing it] up" so it becomes “Islamic". (It is probably far from coincidental that Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, is one of the leading officials of the university.)