The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

Latest Iran Parliament Video: "Rig the Vote and You Go to Kahrizak" (3 September)
NEW MediaFail: How (Not) to Approach Iran's Nuclear Programme
The Latest from Iran (2 September): The Votes on the Cabinet

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1835 GMT: A reader writes to clarify the "first woman" Minister reference in the Reuters report (1645 GMT), and just now repeated by a CNN reporter: "Iran's first female minister, Mrs. F. Parsa, was appointed by the Shah to serve the Ministry of Education." Parsa was arrested by the new Islamic Republic in February 1980 and executed three months later.

1645 GMT: A bit of a lull as most of the Western media condense today's events to fit their agenda: 1) the approval of Cabinet should be linked to "an international dispute over Tehran's nuclear program"; 2) the Minister of Oil is a "relative novice"; 3) Iran has its first female Minister; 4) the Minister of Defense is wanted by Interpol for a 1994 attack in Argentina. (Reuters wins the prize for getting all of this into two paragraphs.)

But here's a wacky flashback from the morning (0808 GMT): remember the moment when an MP joked, ""If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where presumably you will be abused like other detainees]!" Well, the video is now posted in a separate entry.

1240 GMT: A top reformist in the Mousavi presidential campaign, Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi, has been released from Evin Prison, almost two months after he was detained. Aboutalebi, a former MP, is the Deputy Secretary General of the Hambastegi Party..

1220 GMT: US MediaWatch on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. The New York Times leads US media in the summary of today's developments in Parliament, "Ahmadinejad Wins Approval of Key Cabinet Slots". Michael Slackman, based in Cairo, has raised his reporting game recently, relying on the best US-based analysts, and today he picks up not only on "a victory to the beleaguered president who now has close allies overseeing key ministries of oil, interior and intelligence" but also an outcome which "appeared to serve the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who has struggled recently to try to restore credibility to his tarnished leadership and government while also trying to put the brakes on Mr. Ahmadinejad’s desire to sideline conservative rivals and monopolize power".

The quick reaction of The Los Angeles Times is surprisingly weak and even misleading. The lead sentence of "Iran's hardliners united behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today" sweeps away tensions and nuances in the struggle for power, not only with the unhelpful "hardliner" tag and the implications that all divisions are now resolved. (Compare that with our analysis, "Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet....The fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them." --- see 0845 GMT.)

The Associated Press really doesn't care about the internal situation, preferring, "President Mahmoud Ahamedinejad vowed Thursday that Iran would not bend to Western deadlines for nuclear talks after his new government won broad backing from parliament."

And CNN's website? Still nothing (see 1030 GMT).

1045 GMT: Rooz Online claims, from an "informed source", that the Ministry of Intelligence has established a team "to identify the leaks and whistle blowers that led to the revelations that some of the people who had been killed in the aftermath of the June 12 disputed presidential elections were secretly buried".

1030 GMT: We've posted a separate story on how Al Jazeera English let down its usually-high standard of coverage with an example of how not to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme.

However, this slip-up is nothing compared with CNN International's continuing (non-)coverage. One of its top on-air personalties has just tweeted, "Will have more on #Iran lawmakers approving all but 3 of Ahmad's 21 cabinet nominees."

More? I could cut off nine fingers and still be ahead of the total number of words on CNN's website about the Cabinet discussions since Sunday.

1010 GMT: An EA correspondent adds information and analysis to the demand by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a key ally of President Ahmadinejad, that Islamic Azad University be "cleaned up" so it can be "Islamic" (0520 GMT).

The Islamic Azad University was the first private university established after the Revolution and its establishment was promoted by Hashemi Rafsanjani and executed by [his brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali] Jasebi, the current head of the university. The limited capacity of state-run universities caused the IAU to become an extremely lucrative cash cow, bringing Rafsajani a lot of money and influence. Nowadays almost any town with a population of more than 150,000 people has an IAU branch.

Needless to say, Ahmadinejad and company want to appropriate the revenue and influence of the IAU, and I am convinced that all the issues of "bringing the IAU back to the main path, etc." is really just a money grab. Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani [brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani] and Jasebi have tried to prevent this power grab in their recent attempt to re-define the IAU as an endowment associated with a religious beneficiary, provoking the ire of Fars News and other Ahmadinejad supporters.

0930 GMT: Media Alert. Is this the beta version of Mehdi Karroubi's proposed new television station?

0925 GMT: Journalist Isa Saharkhiz, in a two-minute phone call to his family, has advised them that his detention has been extended another two months.

0915 GMT: Some Post-Vote Confusion. There were conflicting reports over whether Mohammad Aliabadi was confirmed or rejected as Minister of Energy (see 0840 GMT), but situation has now been clarified. Although the vote was in his favour 137-117, the number of Yes ballots was less than 1/2 of the total of 286 MPs. So he's out, and it's 18 of 21 Ministers confirmed.

The wider story, which we'll track down, is why Aliabadi was the only male nominee to take a fall.

0910 GMT: On Another Front. The Assembly of Combatant Clergy, have strongly condemned the recent accusations by Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see yesterday's updates) that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists sought the overthrow of the Supreme Leader and the Government. The clerics said they expect the new Prosecutor General to show the "proper reaction" to these lies.

0900 GMT: Tabnak has posted a summary of the vote totals (use Google Translate for the English version).

0845 GMT: The Verdict? There will be a big smile on President Ahmadinejad's face, with 19 of 21 nominees receiving votes of confidence. The only two rejections were of women: Sussan Keshavarz (education) and Fatemeh Ajorloo (welfare). The 3rd woman, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi (health), was confirmed.

Interpretation? Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet. The two rejections are politically "safe" --- to be blunt, it will be easy to frame that as a discrimination against women, rather than a smack at Ahmadinejad, and even then, Dastjerdi (to the surprise of many, I suspect) came through. Other opportunities for rejection were by-passed, even when these could have been portrayed as doubts about individiuals, rather than a fight with the President. Mirkazemi and Aliabadi survived uncertainties over the Government's approach on energy, Mehrabian was not punished for his court scandal, and Daneshjoo's recent stumble over a suspect Ph.D. was not relevant.

Whether that was because they did not want to be seen as allied with "reformists" in blocking Ministerial choices, because of the Supreme Leader's intervention, or because tensions over Ahmadinejad's post-election actions have eased remains to be seen.

Too early, for me, to declare a reconciliation within the Establishment. My preferred interpretation is that the fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them.

0840 GMT: Nominees for Ministries of Housing, Interior, and Labour have been confirmed. The nominee for Minister of Oil, Masoud Mirkazemi, scraped through 147-117, and a similar result for Minister of Energy Mohammad Aliabadi (137-117).

0835 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Welfare, Fatemeh Ajorloo, has been rejected 181-76.

Ali Akbar Mehrabian, who has provoked some controversy after being found guilty of patent fraud in a recent court case, won approval as Minister of Mines and Industry 153-103. Similarly "Dr" Kamran Daneshjoo, despite the changing, dubious status of his Ph.D. from some British university (see separate entry), has become Minister of Science after a 186-75 vote.

0830 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Education, Sussan Keshavarz, has been rejected 209-49. Keshavarz was one of three women nominated.

Reza Taqipour has been confirmed as Minister of Communications 197-62. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi was approved 194-67, and Minister of Economy Shamsodin Hosseini was confirmed 224-41. The current Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, has also received a vote of confidence, as has the new Minister of Justice, Morteza Bakhtiari.

0829 GMT: The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, began the announcement of results by thanking the Supreme Leader, whose remarks had "helped" the voting process.

0825 GMT: Parliament has voted confidence in the proposed Minister of Defence, Ahmad Vahidi.

0820 GMT: Yes, Mahmoud Did Say That. Interpret this as you will, from Iranian Labor News Agency. Ahmadinejad told the Majlis, as they prepared to vote on his Cabinet: "Parliament and government are responsible for the country and should not put this responsibility on Supreme Leader and other clerics."

Oh, yes, and "I think the members of parliament should give [foreign powers] a decisive response. A United vote to propose Cabinet is a strong punch in enemy's mouth.''

0808 GMT: Bad-Taste Parliamentary Comment of Day. One member of Parliament "joked" to a colleague, "If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where a number of detainees have died]!" State television quickly cut the nearby microphone off.

0805 GMT: Ayande News has published more details of the purported letter from the Supreme Leader calling on members of Parliament to give a full vote of confidence in the Ahmadinejad Cabinet: Khamenei declared his desire for a Yes vote to all of the President's selections, but this was not an obligation for MPs.

0800 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi has called for investigations of alleged crimes in Kahrizak Prison and in raids against University dormitories, with punishment of those found responsible.

0745 GMT: Did The President Really Say That?: According to an activist monitoring the Parliamentary discussions, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised that his Cabinet will meet with MPs every two to four weeks.

Here, however, is the statement that raises eyebrows: "We should take responsibility for running country off the shoulders of Supreme Leader." Perhaps it's a change of meaning in translation --- would the President really want to push Ayatollah Khamenei to the sidelines?

0625 GMT: Another Event to Note. The "40th Day" memorial for Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in detention in Evin Prison, will be from 2-3:30 p.m. local time (1030-1200 GMT) at Vali-e Asr Mosque in Tehran.

0615 GMT: Thanks to the Internet, you can watch the live, televised coverage of state-run IRIB 1  of today's Parliamentary discussions of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet.

0520 GMT: The Parliamentary votes of confidence in President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet should finally take place today. The last two nominees to speak, Masoud Mirkazemi (oil) and Mohammad Aliabadi (energy), have presented their cases to the Majlis.

Despite the delays and dramatic stories such as the Supreme Leader's alleged letter asking for full support for Ministers, the general situation appears to be the same as on Sunday. Up to seven Ministers, and in particular the three female nominees, may not be confirmed.

Even this story, however, will be a distant second today if a rumour spread by Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, proves to have substance. The report claims that there will be an end of Ramadan "present", with leading reformists Saeed Hajjarian, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohammad Ali Abtahi,  and Mohammad Ghoochani to be released from detentions, although others such as Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Aminzadeh will remain in jail. The article adds that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is unhappy with televised confessions and the "current trend" will be suspended.

President Ahmadinejad's religious advisor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, is not thinking of any concessions. Instead, he has said that the private Islamic Azad University, has lost its “true way” and should be brought back to the “main path”, "clean[ing it] up" so it becomes “Islamic". (It is probably far from coincidental that Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, is one of the leading officials of the university.)

Comments

[Did An really say That?! - Why]

[...] Did An really say That?! Make of this what you will; From Enduring America 0745 GMT: Did The President Really Say That?: According to an activist monitoring the Parliamentary discussions, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised that his Cabinet will meet with MPs every two to four weeks. Here, however, is the statement that raises eyebrows: “We should take responsibility for running country off the shoulders of Supreme Leader.” Perhaps it’s a change of meaning in translation — would the President really want to push Ayatollah Khamenei to the sidelines? 0820 GMT: Yes, Mahmoud Did Say That. Interpret this as you will, from Iranian Labor News Agency. Ahmadinejad told the Majlis, as they prepared to vote on his Cabinet: “Parliament and government are responsible for the country and should not put this responsibility on Supreme Leader and other clerics.” Oh, yes, and “I think the members of parliament should give [foreign powers] a decisive response. A United vote to propose Cabinet is a strong punch in enemy’s The Latest from Iran (3 September): Votes and Rumours | Enduring America [...]

[Afshin]

----------------Yes, Mahmoud Did Say That. Interpret this as you will, from Iranian Labor News Agency. Ahmadinejad told the Majlis, as they prepared to vote on his Cabinet: “Parliament and government are responsible for the country and should not put this responsibility on Supreme Leader and other clerics.”---------------

Will I like to point again to my post from yesterday, it is clear what A.N and Pasdaran want, what they are fighting for and how they want to get there. It is a masterplan being worked on for years, there is a clear strategy, it is as clear as it can get.

With Hashemi and the greens and even the SL it is not, it seems they have no strategy, no clear goal, no path to glory and are just acting like men drowning reaching around them violently in dispair, men in the dark hitting blindly around them. Or perhaps we can not yet see the true Masterplan they have.

But if one looks at the situation objectively and looks the war being fought at each level (and I made a refrence to all the fronts I can think off in my yesterdays post) then one can not come to a diffrent conclusion that atleast for now things are looking good for A.N and the Pasdaran. They are almost winning on all fronts, almost each battle is tipping over to their advantage.

They seem to have clear goals and a clear strategy while their enemies seem to be lacking true leadership, clear objectives and the muscles needed for a fight like this.

[Cabinet Voting News From The P]

[...] I cracked up when I read this, Larijani having a bit of a dig at Khamenei: Enduring America "The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, began the announcement of results by thanking the Supreme Leader, whose remarks had “helped” the voting process." The Latest from Iran (3 September): Votes and Rumours | Enduring America [...]

[Ein geschenkter Sieg « F]

[...] bei  enduring america Veröffentlicht in News. Schlagworte: Ahmadinejad, Iran, Kabinett, Khamenei, Wahlen. [...]

[Arash]

Hi Afshin, Just wanted to get you thoughts in regards to what Hashemi`s next move might be. For now it seems like they are waving the white flag. How many of the major clerics will you say is in bed with the Pasdaran.

[Afshin]

@Arash

To understand what his next move can be one has to look at the arsenal. What are Hashemi's weapons ? If we know that then we can bring back the next moves to a limited number. Basically we have 3 options

1) he uses one of the weapons used thus far possibly intensifying the attack some what
2) He has a weapon in his arsenal which he has left untouched so far for futur use
3) he backs down fully or at least for now

Hashemi is not an Idealist so contrary to what might be said he is very well capable of backing down now if he thinks there is no other way (or to have his revenge tommorow). At the same time he is no rookie and he would not even have attacked if he knew this was afight he could not handle and it seems very early hours for a full retreat. So if we for now expect Hashemi and the Greens to use their guns then what are weapons the weapons we have seen them with so far ?

1) The People
With some important days coming by we could expect more street protests. One important thing now is that the enviroment has changed so one can argue if the Guards and Basij can give people the same treatment as before.

----> A card that could be played and I expect will be played

2) The Old Clergy Establishment
This is a card he can not play big at the moment, in the height of the killing and violence this card was played to some extent and after the allegations of rape and torture. To play this card one needs a reason what has happend the last few days that is so much worse that all these Grand Ayatollahs should come out shooting ? This is a card that is a reaction to something, what do they have to react on ?

----> A card that might be played to very little extent. For this to be played big another card such as card 1 needs to be played first in a big way

3) Judicary ?
Who is S. Larrijani really loyal to ? Hashemi, his own family, S.L ????? Is this card even his to play with ??? In other words to what extent can he control, coordinate the movement there?

----> So far this has been lots of bark and no actual bite

4) Intelligence/Spies
The last few weeks the attacks by Hashemi and the greens have been mostly leaking information gotten through their spies within the regime. Its alotta of barking which scares people but how scared are u if you hear the same dog bark everyday without ever biting ? This could be a card to play before Card Number two. (Top Clerics getting more involved but with limited power)

----> This card is being played alot lately but has limited effect. It can only be a card thats leads to other more effective cards such as Card 1. Also an excuse to use card 2 again

5) Status/ THE Leader
Friday Prayers, Head of Expediancy council and Assembly of Experts
He is a man that is know to be very capable, that makes him a man people would follow. People might not be willing to risk them selves for Khatami or Mousavi not because they dont respect them but because they dont trust their powers, they do woth Hashemi. If there is anyone who can then its Hashemi. Him being one of the few to be able to lead FP as well as being the head of the organisation that can actually vote away the SL just adds to this. But was he not absent during his last turn at FP ? and has he enough votes to vote of the Leader even if he had the intention to do so ? This is a last resort card, one he can play at the end if backed up enough.

----> This card has been played very limited and controlled so far, which is not surprising as this is his style. He does not like being in the front and that is not his true power either. He is much better operating from the dark.

6) Money
Hashemi is a wealthy man with many wealthy backers, he can practically start an own army of kids (which I think he allready has) not so much waving guns but protests, leaking videos news etc.

He can also use this money to buy people's support with the regime (perhaps even a Devide and Conquer strategy). But as rich as he is and as rich as his friends are is he rich enough to compete financially with the Guards !!?

----> This card is used alot allready and has limited power on its own. It is just a card that helps alot as a backup for playing the other cards

7) Media
We went through this in point 4 and 6.

----> This card is used alot allready and has limited power on its own and is a card to be used for playing the other cards. Worth noting that a Karoubi TV which is rumoured to be coming soon would give the Reformers more possibility to get in the living room of people.

So what does all this say!! Well Hashemi and the reformers have landed some heavy punches and could carry on landing more and maybe all this would have some effect in the long run, though for now the A.N and the Guards (Pasdaran) just seem to be getting stronger and have been returning each punch with a much heavier one. So even if this weakens the Guards it will in the process do more damage to Hashemi and the reformers (perhaps a lot more even)

I have said many times that with the Guards you see the strategy, you see the game plan, you know where they are heading and you see them getting there, There is a masterplan and its almost there in the open for the world to see. But that masterplan seems somewhat absent with the other 3 players The Green Movement, Hashemi (Old Clerical stablishment) and the S.L. (Conservatives)

Well with the reformers and S.L, I am not that surprised, but Hashemi is the man KHOMEINI build on... the Mastermind, the Organiser, the wheeler and dealer, the man behind the scenes, the man who best moves in secreacy, the Planner, the organiser, the patient one, the FOX.. The SHARK, surley he did not go into this not knowing his each move and how the enemy would counter that and how he would react on it... surley he has made some plans as to possible outcomes of each move and the card he would answer that with.

So what about that one weapon we have not seen being used yet ?

8) Strikes/ The Bazar
So how big is Hashemi's pull and push in the Bazar?? Could he make the country and the economy come to a standstill ?

[Afshin]

One Other thing worth Mentioning is that today can be marked as the day the Leader chikend out.

It's now 2 vs 2... With A.N being slightly the stronger player.

1 vs 0 = S.L makes sure the first Vice President is replaced (A score for the S.L but a victory with consequences. Open Defiance of S.L and a resignation, He was not fired)

1 vs 1 = A.N strikes back by his succesfull atack of the Intelligence Ministery

2 vs 1 = S.L answers and wins big within the Judicary

2 vs 2 = A.N gives a masterclass to S.L playing poker, leaving things last second and getting away with it. (He knew he would and that the S.L would in no way be able to call his bluff)

[Amy]

When someone is released from prison (0520 GMT & 1240 GMT), does it mean that the charges were dropped or is it just that the person is let out of jail until a trial? If charges are dropped, is the person really free, or is it like being on parole for many years, or maybe for life?

[Amy]

Afshin & anyone interested,
Late http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/02/the-latest-from-iran-2-september-the-votes-on-the-cabinet/#comments" rel="nofollow">yesterday, Arshama posted a couple of comments about cards #1 & #8 and about the economy, which I would say is the card table. Players might try to use it as a card but the house of cards rests on it.

Arshama posted a link to this article:
http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2009/09/is-blue-collar-wave-of-protest-on-its.html" rel="nofollow">“Is a blue-collar wave of protest on its way?”
Whether or not the specific examples in the article have been verified, the overall picture is that the economy is closer to an abyss than is generally discussed. Do you think that's the case?

Here are my questions:
(A) Does the new Minister of Economy have a background in Economics?

(B) The article suggests that the main plan is to use monetary policy to control the economy. It would only make things worse without some fundamental changes. Is anybody talking about other measures?

(C) The article says that as the economy disintegrates, the people must turn more & more to the black market. One commenter here has pointed out that Pasdaran are the ones who benefit from sanctions because they “own” the black market. This dynamic would apply to any economic downturn... Since Pasdaran run both the privatized industries and the black market, it sounds like they are poised to rake in the money, whether the economy is great or is going all to hell. So in the short run, they’re likely to be richer & more powerful. But if things are bad enough, there has to be a tipping point, despite their institutional control and their weapons. How is the scenario likely to play out?

(D) How deep are the pockets in Hashemi's family? Same for Mojtaba Khamenei? Both have international investments, as do others... are there individuals or combinations of players rich enough to make a significant impact in terms of the economy as a whole?

(E) Is a crisis immanent or is the problem a slow-moving snowball?

Also, be sure to see
comments http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/02/the-latest-from-iran-2-september-the-votes-on-the-cabinet/#comments" rel="nofollow">yesterday,

[Amy]

Ach-- at the end of comment above, I made a botched effort to add: Be sure to see Arshama's comments #17 & 21 from http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/02/the-latest-from-iran-2-september-the-votes-on-the-cabinet/#comments" rel="nofollow">yesterday

Afshin
LOL-- I tend to leave out the bottom line. A friend said it's a good rule to put the bottom line at the top, but you are dealing with a space cadet here...

I don't think AN & the Pasdaran are capable of making a plan that can account for what might happen with the economy. You talk about Napoleon's principle of taking advantage of the mistakes of the enemy... maybe Hashemi & the opposition have a plan

[Pedestrian]

This is a table of the final results:

http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=1383

[Afshin]

@ Amy

At the end I do make a refrence to it. That I would be surprised if he has not. Hashemi is very calculating.

It is still difficult to guess how exactly the Shark is going to take on the Guards. Especially if not backed by the S.L

One path to walk would be More Street unrest, More Clergy joining the cause and STRIKES... But sounds awefull lot like a revoltion and I am not sure if Hashemi is wanting to open up that box...

The Problem that Reformists and Hashemi have is that unless they can get backing by the Supreme leader by taking on the Guards they have to also take on the S.L... Any attack on the guards will get them also tangled in a war with the S.L unless they can make him change sides...

[Arash]

@Afshin
thanks for your reply.
I have a few thoughts and predicments, hopefully you can eloborate more. Prior to the election(coup`d`etat) Iran was a military dicatorship faced with the mask of theocracy, now their mask has come off. The coup was a manisfistation of a power struggle between Hashemi, his allies and the Guards over financial interests. That much is clear. The Guards have emerged as the winner for now. What is unclear for me is the actual rift between SL and Hashemi, could we consider them arch enemies now? Clearly SL fears Hashemi, he reshuffled the Guard commanders to get rid of suspected Hashemi loyalists + the arrest of 36 army officers from the Artesh, but so far the Guards haven`t been able to Cry "check-mate" against Hashemi. For me its frightening to see how much power the Guards have, even with numerous Grand Ayatollahs condemning the election, they seem untouchable.

I would like to get your thoughts on Mohsen Rezaee as well. So far he has played a perifer role, but the fact remains that he is one of Irans richest and a previously commander of the Guards. He has sided with Hashemi and he has loyalists in the Guard. Do you put any importance in Mohsen`s role?

My own predicments; we could see a Hashemi /Larijani alliance, Hashemi using his constitutional power to get rid of SL ,Larijani uses his judicary power to strip the Guards of influence.

A scenario I see probable( alot of people might disagree) Israel pushes US to launch an attack , primarly targeted at the Guards not nuclear facilities, to create a power vacum which can be absorbed by Hashemi and reform-friendly clerics.

Am I completely wrong?

[whereismyvote]

@Amy and Afshin

My two cents, cause Afshin's analysis was so good, I got excited.
The cards that will be played are a combination of card 8 and 1, or a sequence of 1 & 8. All other cards are hard to play immediately and will follow.

I also feel that one part of Afshin’s analysis is a little wrong (Sorry Afshin, just a little, not a lot) and the 98% other of his analysis is very right. My take is that Rafsanjani knew all along his hand is weak and chances of victory small. He was forced to play, and not that he liked to play. He also made a blunder, and perhaps an unrecoverable blunder in backing off the Friday Prey 2 weeks ago. This gave AN an opening that he exploited.

The best way to understand is this. In Texas Holdem,Hold emyou have an old hand player (classic player) they play with style and panache. They bluff and read faces, they look for openings and the like. This style only works against a player that is also playing this game, but is weaker. Online new style players, play consistent offensive play. They bet offensively all the time, and never flinch. They often knock off the old players as such, with ease. AN is playing this style, and Rafsanjani and reformers are not. This is why I have argued that Karoubi has the best game play. As a Lur, he is all out. Lur’s are famous for being hot blooded hot headed and my way or highway types…. Rafsanjani and Mousavi need to increasingly play from the backfoot, and they find it uncomfortable. Next move is Rafsanjani and Mousavi's to make. If Quods day turns out to be a firestorm, then the game goes on, else Rafsanjani and Mousavi will need to take a hit on the head and wait for an opening.

One last card # 9 and a long long shot, that recently has crossed my mind is a death card. Like a joker. If the SL is sick and dying then Rafsanjani's play will make perfect sense. He may be playing for time to be the kingpin again, and all along and at the same time bringing to the open his enemies. But like I said this one is pure speculation and Afshin talked of the possible and probable plays and not the unlikely ones...

[Amy]

Arash
I'm in the US. I think the chance of any overt US involvement is next to nil. First I'll address the question of Israel pushing. Israel just doesn't have that kind of power here. There are lobbies that try to influence policy, with varying degrees of success, depending on the US administration in power & the issue, but nothing on the scale you are talking about. Here are some other reasons the US wouldn't get involved militarily:
(1) The Bush admin might have jumped in with both feet, but even BushCo would have a rough go of it because of its other military exploits.
(2) President Obama is committed to non-interference. He believes Iranians are the right people to determine the government of Iran
(3) The overwhelming majority of people in the US support the Green Movement, but a lot of us consider support to be staying out of the way. Whatever we do is likely to make things worse.
(4) The US military is spread thin because of Iraq and Afghanistan
(5) The current state of the US economy would make such a venture very difficult
(6) The scenario you described of targeting the Guard would be harder than it might sound. They aren't in centralized locations. I have no military expertise at all, but it's hard to envision how it could work.

[Afshin]

@ whereismyvote homer_sim

"My take is that Rafsanjani knew all along his hand is weak and chances of victory small. "

-- Hmm I am not so sure about that. I think he is going in knowing this is a very hard nutt to crack but a do-able one. I think his hand is weak but not as weak as you make it out to be.

"He was forced to play, and not that he liked to play."

-- Not just Hashemi but the old Clerical establishment as a whole. This is a game they wish they did not have to play. They know it is do or die. They have to play.

"He also made a blunder, and perhaps an unrecoverable blunder in backing off the Friday Prey 2 weeks ago."

-- Do not agree with this. Or better said I am not sure this is the case. Time will have to tell when we know the details of the bigger picture. Was this a wise descision or not?

One thing I have said before is that in a country where leaders are hard to come by and leaders with power even harder, people are very forgiving. U can let them down and be certain they will forgive u tommorow when u speak from their hearts again. It could very well be that he knew he was not ready. Instead he chose to work behind the scene and use that card another day. He can afford to let people down, what are the peoples alternatives?

One certain mistake in this was that he did mismanage it by allowing the Enemy to come out with the news before he did himself.

Yes the Card 9 is a important one, but that is outside his control and is not a card one can play in the short term.

[whereismyvotehom]

@ Afshin
One other thing Amy did not mention is that Obama sent a first letter to SL, who demanded America stay out of Iran internal affairs in response. Obama sent a second letter which means he probably has agreed to the terms of the first letter. That takes out a strike option then for sure..

A second point is that although it sounds great to create an opening by Bombing targets of Pasdaran (I floated the idea weeks ago as a last resource, to see the response even) It is almost imposible. In an average Iranian city, Pasdaran bases are intergrated to residential neighbourhoods, there is Pasdaran people at the university, much of the missile defences and the factories are run by Pasdaran, even resturants and shopping malls. Do you bomb targets? What if there is casualty, what if you get it wrong. What if you get it right? Peple will still turn against US action. This is a big big gamble and I doubth USA will take it soon if in the next long while. Obama is more complacant to live with a Pasdaran dictatorship in reasonable terms than to live with an angry Pasdaran force that is hurt and strikes back....

[Afshin]

@ Arash

To Follow up on Amy and whereismyvote hom

Just think of Hizbollah and Hamas (who are trained and backed by Pasdaran)
what good have the attacks done Israel ??

This is a battle that needs to be fought from the inside.

"What is unclear for me is the actual rift between SL and Hashemi, could we consider them arch enemies now? Clearly SL fears Hashemi, he reshuffled the Guard commanders to get rid of suspected Hashemi loyalists + the arrest of 36 army officers from the Artesh"

I think this is done by the Guards rather then S.L - Hashemi and S.L have diffrent interests but I would not go as far as saying they are enemies. Hashemi is in war with the Guards not the S.L

I would like to get your thoughts on Mohsen Rezaee as well

I think Mohsen Rezaei is a pragmatic Guard. For the outside world he is loyal to S.L but I would say he is very much capable of treason towards him if needed without losing a single nights sleap. Infact there are rumours of him being in Hashemi's payrol and one reason for him running for office is to get the conservative votes away from A.N

"My own predicments; we could see a Hashemi /Larijani alliance, Hashemi using his constitutional power to get rid of SL ,Larijani uses his judicary power to strip the Guards of influence."

Without S.L backing this is a hard game to play. He can Remove Larrijani and or Veto any descision. Unlike the Guards they lack the power to ignore his wishes.

Also the Larrijanis are at least for the outside world loyal to S.L, however again being pragmatic they could easily change sides at any point as Ali Larrijani has shown being capable of doing a 180 in less then 24 hours many times.

[Afshin]

@ whereismyvote hom

I think you meant @ Arash not Afshin...

[whereismyvote]

Yes sorry

and on our earlier discussion, it seems only time will shed light on this, but I wish for your opinion to be true, cause it reflects more hope.

[Amy]

whereismyvote
In comment 18 you said, "Obama sent a second letter which means he probably has agreed to the terms of the first letter." I sincerely doubt that the letters would be public knowledge if such arrangements are being made.

Here are my thoughts: Many right wing and neocon politicians called for Obama to make strong declarations about the election results and the protests. Obama understands that such responses would make no difference to the regime-- his words or acts would only be used against the people. And what could we actually do beyond words?

What would you have us do? Hypothetically, if the US had sufficient troops ready on the border of Iran, would you want us to move in? It's not like we could roll in & roll back out again... there would have to be a time of occupation while things got sorted out. Would anybody trust that it's not just another Western power grab? As you've seen in Iraq, all kinds of people get involved in this stuff and plenty of opportunists try to take advantage in such situations. Political, economic & military power get all mixed up together.

There are things about such a scenario that may sound appealing, but I have no idea if what you would have in the end would be what you want. Even if we could...

I hope you know by now that I want the best possible outcome for you, so don't take what I just said the wrong way. I just don't know how we could make a positive difference. And you deserve your own government without our interference

[kevina]

@Afshin- 16:20

OK, but in what plausible scenario would the S.L. jump to the Hashemi/Green side? I mean, if the AN/Pasdaran plan has been a (brilliantly executed*) slow-motion plan, then surely Khamenei had to have seen this too, no? And if he's let it happen up 'til now, why flip at this point?

To the point about revolution, do you think it could ever get to a point where, if only for his own interests, even Hashemi might conclude there is no other option left or would he just get "onside" again (though wouldn't that make him irrelevant)?

[The Latest from Iran (3 Septem]

[...] here to see the original: The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet … Share and [...]

[kevina]

*Forgot this. When I say "brilliantly executed," I'm making a cold analysis, certainly not a value judgment. It also doesn't guarantee ultimate, permanent success either.

[Arash]

Guess until something drastical happens , we can only speculate.
Any thoughts about the importance of the next assembly of experts meeting or what might come out of it? also Hashemi`s brother has said that Rafsanjani will continue with FP and Karroubi has annonced a march after ramadan.

a calm before the storm and hell will break loose again