Thursday
Sep032009
The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet
Thursday, September 3, 2009 at 11:16
Latest Iran Parliament Video: "Rig the Vote and You Go to Kahrizak" (3 September)
NEW MediaFail: How (Not) to Approach Iran's Nuclear Programme
The Latest from Iran (2 September): The Votes on the Cabinet
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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1835 GMT: A reader writes to clarify the "first woman" Minister reference in the Reuters report (1645 GMT), and just now repeated by a CNN reporter: "Iran's first female minister, Mrs. F. Parsa, was appointed by the Shah to serve the Ministry of Education." Parsa was arrested by the new Islamic Republic in February 1980 and executed three months later.
1645 GMT: A bit of a lull as most of the Western media condense today's events to fit their agenda: 1) the approval of Cabinet should be linked to "an international dispute over Tehran's nuclear program"; 2) the Minister of Oil is a "relative novice"; 3) Iran has its first female Minister; 4) the Minister of Defense is wanted by Interpol for a 1994 attack in Argentina. (Reuters wins the prize for getting all of this into two paragraphs.)
But here's a wacky flashback from the morning (0808 GMT): remember the moment when an MP joked, ""If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where presumably you will be abused like other detainees]!" Well, the video is now posted in a separate entry.
1240 GMT: A top reformist in the Mousavi presidential campaign, Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi, has been released from Evin Prison, almost two months after he was detained. Aboutalebi, a former MP, is the Deputy Secretary General of the Hambastegi Party..
1220 GMT: US MediaWatch on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. The New York Times leads US media in the summary of today's developments in Parliament, "Ahmadinejad Wins Approval of Key Cabinet Slots". Michael Slackman, based in Cairo, has raised his reporting game recently, relying on the best US-based analysts, and today he picks up not only on "a victory to the beleaguered president who now has close allies overseeing key ministries of oil, interior and intelligence" but also an outcome which "appeared to serve the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who has struggled recently to try to restore credibility to his tarnished leadership and government while also trying to put the brakes on Mr. Ahmadinejad’s desire to sideline conservative rivals and monopolize power".
The quick reaction of The Los Angeles Times is surprisingly weak and even misleading. The lead sentence of "Iran's hardliners united behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today" sweeps away tensions and nuances in the struggle for power, not only with the unhelpful "hardliner" tag and the implications that all divisions are now resolved. (Compare that with our analysis, "Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet....The fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them." --- see 0845 GMT.)
The Associated Press really doesn't care about the internal situation, preferring, "President Mahmoud Ahamedinejad vowed Thursday that Iran would not bend to Western deadlines for nuclear talks after his new government won broad backing from parliament."
And CNN's website? Still nothing (see 1030 GMT).
1045 GMT: Rooz Online claims, from an "informed source", that the Ministry of Intelligence has established a team "to identify the leaks and whistle blowers that led to the revelations that some of the people who had been killed in the aftermath of the June 12 disputed presidential elections were secretly buried".
1030 GMT: We've posted a separate story on how Al Jazeera English let down its usually-high standard of coverage with an example of how not to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme.
However, this slip-up is nothing compared with CNN International's continuing (non-)coverage. One of its top on-air personalties has just tweeted, "Will have more on #Iran lawmakers approving all but 3 of Ahmad's 21 cabinet nominees."
More? I could cut off nine fingers and still be ahead of the total number of words on CNN's website about the Cabinet discussions since Sunday.
1010 GMT: An EA correspondent adds information and analysis to the demand by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a key ally of President Ahmadinejad, that Islamic Azad University be "cleaned up" so it can be "Islamic" (0520 GMT).
0930 GMT: Media Alert. Is this the beta version of Mehdi Karroubi's proposed new television station?
0925 GMT: Journalist Isa Saharkhiz, in a two-minute phone call to his family, has advised them that his detention has been extended another two months.
0915 GMT: Some Post-Vote Confusion. There were conflicting reports over whether Mohammad Aliabadi was confirmed or rejected as Minister of Energy (see 0840 GMT), but situation has now been clarified. Although the vote was in his favour 137-117, the number of Yes ballots was less than 1/2 of the total of 286 MPs. So he's out, and it's 18 of 21 Ministers confirmed.
The wider story, which we'll track down, is why Aliabadi was the only male nominee to take a fall.
0910 GMT: On Another Front. The Assembly of Combatant Clergy, have strongly condemned the recent accusations by Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see yesterday's updates) that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists sought the overthrow of the Supreme Leader and the Government. The clerics said they expect the new Prosecutor General to show the "proper reaction" to these lies.
0900 GMT: Tabnak has posted a summary of the vote totals (use Google Translate for the English version).
0845 GMT: The Verdict? There will be a big smile on President Ahmadinejad's face, with 19 of 21 nominees receiving votes of confidence. The only two rejections were of women: Sussan Keshavarz (education) and Fatemeh Ajorloo (welfare). The 3rd woman, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi (health), was confirmed.
Interpretation? Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet. The two rejections are politically "safe" --- to be blunt, it will be easy to frame that as a discrimination against women, rather than a smack at Ahmadinejad, and even then, Dastjerdi (to the surprise of many, I suspect) came through. Other opportunities for rejection were by-passed, even when these could have been portrayed as doubts about individiuals, rather than a fight with the President. Mirkazemi and Aliabadi survived uncertainties over the Government's approach on energy, Mehrabian was not punished for his court scandal, and Daneshjoo's recent stumble over a suspect Ph.D. was not relevant.
Whether that was because they did not want to be seen as allied with "reformists" in blocking Ministerial choices, because of the Supreme Leader's intervention, or because tensions over Ahmadinejad's post-election actions have eased remains to be seen.
Too early, for me, to declare a reconciliation within the Establishment. My preferred interpretation is that the fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them.
0840 GMT: Nominees for Ministries of Housing, Interior, and Labour have been confirmed. The nominee for Minister of Oil, Masoud Mirkazemi, scraped through 147-117, and a similar result for Minister of Energy Mohammad Aliabadi (137-117).
0835 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Welfare, Fatemeh Ajorloo, has been rejected 181-76.
Ali Akbar Mehrabian, who has provoked some controversy after being found guilty of patent fraud in a recent court case, won approval as Minister of Mines and Industry 153-103. Similarly "Dr" Kamran Daneshjoo, despite the changing, dubious status of his Ph.D. from some British university (see separate entry), has become Minister of Science after a 186-75 vote.
0830 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Education, Sussan Keshavarz, has been rejected 209-49. Keshavarz was one of three women nominated.
Reza Taqipour has been confirmed as Minister of Communications 197-62. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi was approved 194-67, and Minister of Economy Shamsodin Hosseini was confirmed 224-41. The current Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, has also received a vote of confidence, as has the new Minister of Justice, Morteza Bakhtiari.
0829 GMT: The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, began the announcement of results by thanking the Supreme Leader, whose remarks had "helped" the voting process.
0825 GMT: Parliament has voted confidence in the proposed Minister of Defence, Ahmad Vahidi.
0820 GMT: Yes, Mahmoud Did Say That. Interpret this as you will, from Iranian Labor News Agency. Ahmadinejad told the Majlis, as they prepared to vote on his Cabinet: "Parliament and government are responsible for the country and should not put this responsibility on Supreme Leader and other clerics."
Oh, yes, and "I think the members of parliament should give [foreign powers] a decisive response. A United vote to propose Cabinet is a strong punch in enemy's mouth.''
0808 GMT: Bad-Taste Parliamentary Comment of Day. One member of Parliament "joked" to a colleague, "If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where a number of detainees have died]!" State television quickly cut the nearby microphone off.
0805 GMT: Ayande News has published more details of the purported letter from the Supreme Leader calling on members of Parliament to give a full vote of confidence in the Ahmadinejad Cabinet: Khamenei declared his desire for a Yes vote to all of the President's selections, but this was not an obligation for MPs.
0800 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi has called for investigations of alleged crimes in Kahrizak Prison and in raids against University dormitories, with punishment of those found responsible.
0745 GMT: Did The President Really Say That?: According to an activist monitoring the Parliamentary discussions, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised that his Cabinet will meet with MPs every two to four weeks.
Here, however, is the statement that raises eyebrows: "We should take responsibility for running country off the shoulders of Supreme Leader." Perhaps it's a change of meaning in translation --- would the President really want to push Ayatollah Khamenei to the sidelines?
0625 GMT: Another Event to Note. The "40th Day" memorial for Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in detention in Evin Prison, will be from 2-3:30 p.m. local time (1030-1200 GMT) at Vali-e Asr Mosque in Tehran.
0615 GMT: Thanks to the Internet, you can watch the live, televised coverage of state-run IRIB 1 of today's Parliamentary discussions of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet.
0520 GMT: The Parliamentary votes of confidence in President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet should finally take place today. The last two nominees to speak, Masoud Mirkazemi (oil) and Mohammad Aliabadi (energy), have presented their cases to the Majlis.
Despite the delays and dramatic stories such as the Supreme Leader's alleged letter asking for full support for Ministers, the general situation appears to be the same as on Sunday. Up to seven Ministers, and in particular the three female nominees, may not be confirmed.
Even this story, however, will be a distant second today if a rumour spread by Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, proves to have substance. The report claims that there will be an end of Ramadan "present", with leading reformists Saeed Hajjarian, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, and Mohammad Ghoochani to be released from detentions, although others such as Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Aminzadeh will remain in jail. The article adds that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is unhappy with televised confessions and the "current trend" will be suspended.
President Ahmadinejad's religious advisor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, is not thinking of any concessions. Instead, he has said that the private Islamic Azad University, has lost its “true way” and should be brought back to the “main path”, "clean[ing it] up" so it becomes “Islamic". (It is probably far from coincidental that Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, is one of the leading officials of the university.)
NEW MediaFail: How (Not) to Approach Iran's Nuclear Programme
The Latest from Iran (2 September): The Votes on the Cabinet
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1835 GMT: A reader writes to clarify the "first woman" Minister reference in the Reuters report (1645 GMT), and just now repeated by a CNN reporter: "Iran's first female minister, Mrs. F. Parsa, was appointed by the Shah to serve the Ministry of Education." Parsa was arrested by the new Islamic Republic in February 1980 and executed three months later.1645 GMT: A bit of a lull as most of the Western media condense today's events to fit their agenda: 1) the approval of Cabinet should be linked to "an international dispute over Tehran's nuclear program"; 2) the Minister of Oil is a "relative novice"; 3) Iran has its first female Minister; 4) the Minister of Defense is wanted by Interpol for a 1994 attack in Argentina. (Reuters wins the prize for getting all of this into two paragraphs.)
But here's a wacky flashback from the morning (0808 GMT): remember the moment when an MP joked, ""If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where presumably you will be abused like other detainees]!" Well, the video is now posted in a separate entry.
1240 GMT: A top reformist in the Mousavi presidential campaign, Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi, has been released from Evin Prison, almost two months after he was detained. Aboutalebi, a former MP, is the Deputy Secretary General of the Hambastegi Party..
1220 GMT: US MediaWatch on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. The New York Times leads US media in the summary of today's developments in Parliament, "Ahmadinejad Wins Approval of Key Cabinet Slots". Michael Slackman, based in Cairo, has raised his reporting game recently, relying on the best US-based analysts, and today he picks up not only on "a victory to the beleaguered president who now has close allies overseeing key ministries of oil, interior and intelligence" but also an outcome which "appeared to serve the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who has struggled recently to try to restore credibility to his tarnished leadership and government while also trying to put the brakes on Mr. Ahmadinejad’s desire to sideline conservative rivals and monopolize power".
The quick reaction of The Los Angeles Times is surprisingly weak and even misleading. The lead sentence of "Iran's hardliners united behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today" sweeps away tensions and nuances in the struggle for power, not only with the unhelpful "hardliner" tag and the implications that all divisions are now resolved. (Compare that with our analysis, "Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet....The fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them." --- see 0845 GMT.)
The Associated Press really doesn't care about the internal situation, preferring, "President Mahmoud Ahamedinejad vowed Thursday that Iran would not bend to Western deadlines for nuclear talks after his new government won broad backing from parliament."
And CNN's website? Still nothing (see 1030 GMT).
1045 GMT: Rooz Online claims, from an "informed source", that the Ministry of Intelligence has established a team "to identify the leaks and whistle blowers that led to the revelations that some of the people who had been killed in the aftermath of the June 12 disputed presidential elections were secretly buried".
1030 GMT: We've posted a separate story on how Al Jazeera English let down its usually-high standard of coverage with an example of how not to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme.
However, this slip-up is nothing compared with CNN International's continuing (non-)coverage. One of its top on-air personalties has just tweeted, "Will have more on #Iran lawmakers approving all but 3 of Ahmad's 21 cabinet nominees."
More? I could cut off nine fingers and still be ahead of the total number of words on CNN's website about the Cabinet discussions since Sunday.
1010 GMT: An EA correspondent adds information and analysis to the demand by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a key ally of President Ahmadinejad, that Islamic Azad University be "cleaned up" so it can be "Islamic" (0520 GMT).
The Islamic Azad University was the first private university established after the Revolution and its establishment was promoted by Hashemi Rafsanjani and executed by [his brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali] Jasebi, the current head of the university. The limited capacity of state-run universities caused the IAU to become an extremely lucrative cash cow, bringing Rafsajani a lot of money and influence. Nowadays almost any town with a population of more than 150,000 people has an IAU branch.
Needless to say, Ahmadinejad and company want to appropriate the revenue and influence of the IAU, and I am convinced that all the issues of "bringing the IAU back to the main path, etc." is really just a money grab. Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani [brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani] and Jasebi have tried to prevent this power grab in their recent attempt to re-define the IAU as an endowment associated with a religious beneficiary, provoking the ire of Fars News and other Ahmadinejad supporters.
0930 GMT: Media Alert. Is this the beta version of Mehdi Karroubi's proposed new television station?
0925 GMT: Journalist Isa Saharkhiz, in a two-minute phone call to his family, has advised them that his detention has been extended another two months.
0915 GMT: Some Post-Vote Confusion. There were conflicting reports over whether Mohammad Aliabadi was confirmed or rejected as Minister of Energy (see 0840 GMT), but situation has now been clarified. Although the vote was in his favour 137-117, the number of Yes ballots was less than 1/2 of the total of 286 MPs. So he's out, and it's 18 of 21 Ministers confirmed.
The wider story, which we'll track down, is why Aliabadi was the only male nominee to take a fall.
0910 GMT: On Another Front. The Assembly of Combatant Clergy, have strongly condemned the recent accusations by Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see yesterday's updates) that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists sought the overthrow of the Supreme Leader and the Government. The clerics said they expect the new Prosecutor General to show the "proper reaction" to these lies.
0900 GMT: Tabnak has posted a summary of the vote totals (use Google Translate for the English version).
0845 GMT: The Verdict? There will be a big smile on President Ahmadinejad's face, with 19 of 21 nominees receiving votes of confidence. The only two rejections were of women: Sussan Keshavarz (education) and Fatemeh Ajorloo (welfare). The 3rd woman, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi (health), was confirmed.
Interpretation? Those conservative and principlist MPs who have problems with the President were not prepared, in the end, to make their stand over the Cabinet. The two rejections are politically "safe" --- to be blunt, it will be easy to frame that as a discrimination against women, rather than a smack at Ahmadinejad, and even then, Dastjerdi (to the surprise of many, I suspect) came through. Other opportunities for rejection were by-passed, even when these could have been portrayed as doubts about individiuals, rather than a fight with the President. Mirkazemi and Aliabadi survived uncertainties over the Government's approach on energy, Mehrabian was not punished for his court scandal, and Daneshjoo's recent stumble over a suspect Ph.D. was not relevant.
Whether that was because they did not want to be seen as allied with "reformists" in blocking Ministerial choices, because of the Supreme Leader's intervention, or because tensions over Ahmadinejad's post-election actions have eased remains to be seen.
Too early, for me, to declare a reconciliation within the Establishment. My preferred interpretation is that the fights, if they are to take place, will now return to the system of detentions and trials, rather than a direct clash over the Ministers overseeing them.
0840 GMT: Nominees for Ministries of Housing, Interior, and Labour have been confirmed. The nominee for Minister of Oil, Masoud Mirkazemi, scraped through 147-117, and a similar result for Minister of Energy Mohammad Aliabadi (137-117).
0835 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Welfare, Fatemeh Ajorloo, has been rejected 181-76.
Ali Akbar Mehrabian, who has provoked some controversy after being found guilty of patent fraud in a recent court case, won approval as Minister of Mines and Industry 153-103. Similarly "Dr" Kamran Daneshjoo, despite the changing, dubious status of his Ph.D. from some British university (see separate entry), has become Minister of Science after a 186-75 vote.
0830 GMT: The nominee for Minister of Education, Sussan Keshavarz, has been rejected 209-49. Keshavarz was one of three women nominated.
Reza Taqipour has been confirmed as Minister of Communications 197-62. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi was approved 194-67, and Minister of Economy Shamsodin Hosseini was confirmed 224-41. The current Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, has also received a vote of confidence, as has the new Minister of Justice, Morteza Bakhtiari.
0829 GMT: The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, began the announcement of results by thanking the Supreme Leader, whose remarks had "helped" the voting process.
0825 GMT: Parliament has voted confidence in the proposed Minister of Defence, Ahmad Vahidi.
0820 GMT: Yes, Mahmoud Did Say That. Interpret this as you will, from Iranian Labor News Agency. Ahmadinejad told the Majlis, as they prepared to vote on his Cabinet: "Parliament and government are responsible for the country and should not put this responsibility on Supreme Leader and other clerics."
Oh, yes, and "I think the members of parliament should give [foreign powers] a decisive response. A United vote to propose Cabinet is a strong punch in enemy's mouth.''
0808 GMT: Bad-Taste Parliamentary Comment of Day. One member of Parliament "joked" to a colleague, "If you say the confidence vote was rigged, we'll take you to Kahrizak [Prison, where a number of detainees have died]!" State television quickly cut the nearby microphone off.
0805 GMT: Ayande News has published more details of the purported letter from the Supreme Leader calling on members of Parliament to give a full vote of confidence in the Ahmadinejad Cabinet: Khamenei declared his desire for a Yes vote to all of the President's selections, but this was not an obligation for MPs.
0800 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi has called for investigations of alleged crimes in Kahrizak Prison and in raids against University dormitories, with punishment of those found responsible.
0745 GMT: Did The President Really Say That?: According to an activist monitoring the Parliamentary discussions, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised that his Cabinet will meet with MPs every two to four weeks.
Here, however, is the statement that raises eyebrows: "We should take responsibility for running country off the shoulders of Supreme Leader." Perhaps it's a change of meaning in translation --- would the President really want to push Ayatollah Khamenei to the sidelines?
0625 GMT: Another Event to Note. The "40th Day" memorial for Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in detention in Evin Prison, will be from 2-3:30 p.m. local time (1030-1200 GMT) at Vali-e Asr Mosque in Tehran.
0615 GMT: Thanks to the Internet, you can watch the live, televised coverage of state-run IRIB 1 of today's Parliamentary discussions of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet.
0520 GMT: The Parliamentary votes of confidence in President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet should finally take place today. The last two nominees to speak, Masoud Mirkazemi (oil) and Mohammad Aliabadi (energy), have presented their cases to the Majlis.
Despite the delays and dramatic stories such as the Supreme Leader's alleged letter asking for full support for Ministers, the general situation appears to be the same as on Sunday. Up to seven Ministers, and in particular the three female nominees, may not be confirmed.
Even this story, however, will be a distant second today if a rumour spread by Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, proves to have substance. The report claims that there will be an end of Ramadan "present", with leading reformists Saeed Hajjarian, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, and Mohammad Ghoochani to be released from detentions, although others such as Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Aminzadeh will remain in jail. The article adds that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is unhappy with televised confessions and the "current trend" will be suspended.
President Ahmadinejad's religious advisor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, is not thinking of any concessions. Instead, he has said that the private Islamic Azad University, has lost its “true way” and should be brought back to the “main path”, "clean[ing it] up" so it becomes “Islamic". (It is probably far from coincidental that Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, is one of the leading officials of the university.)
tagged Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Abdullah Jafar Ali Jasebi, Ahmad Vahidi, Al Jazeera, Ali Akbar Mehrabian, Ali Larijani, Association of Combatant Clergy, Ayande News, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, Behzad Nabavi, CNN, Fatemeh Ajorloo, Hambastegi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Heydar Moslehi, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iranian Labor News Agency, Isa Saharkhiz, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Kamran Daneshjoo, Los Angeles Times, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Manouchehr Mottaki, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi, Masoud Mirkazemi, Mehdi Hashemi, Michael Slackman, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, Mohammad Aliabadi, Mohammad Ghoochani, Mohammad Hashemi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mohsen Ruholamini, Morteza Bakhtiari, Mostafa Tajzadeh, New York Times, Reuters, Reza Taqipour, Rooz Online, Saeed Hajjarian, Shamsodin Hosseini, Sussan Keshavarz in Middle East & Iran
Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Abdullah Jafar Ali Jasebi, Ahmad Vahidi, Al Jazeera, Ali Akbar Mehrabian, Ali Larijani, Association of Combatant Clergy, Ayande News, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, Behzad Nabavi, CNN, Fatemeh Ajorloo, Hambastegi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Heydar Moslehi, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iranian Labor News Agency, Isa Saharkhiz, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Kamran Daneshjoo, Los Angeles Times, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Manouchehr Mottaki, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi, Masoud Mirkazemi, Mehdi Hashemi, Michael Slackman, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, Mohammad Aliabadi, Mohammad Ghoochani, Mohammad Hashemi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mohsen Ruholamini, Morteza Bakhtiari, Mostafa Tajzadeh, New York Times, Reuters, Reza Taqipour, Rooz Online, Saeed Hajjarian, Shamsodin Hosseini, Sussan Keshavarz in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (41)
From Mousavi's FB:
"This year Qods Day will be “Green”, so that all shall know assault is appalling, no matter where or by whom; on land, wealth or honour. This year the Iranian nation, invites the world and especially the oppressed Palestinian nation, to be “Green”, to... wear “Green” and to think “Green” in solidarity with us, the “Green”. Our message for this Qods Day: Stop Assault!"
Very interesting wording, no? Oh and the thinly veiled comparison of the regime's behavior to the Israeli occupation has to be damning within the Iranian establishment.
@ Kevina
I guess the only way SL would change tactics is if there is no other way out for him. Unless he is so under attack that he feels he has to or if Pasdaran and A.N undermine him even more.
I doubt Hashemi or even Karoubi, Khatami or Mousavi is pro revolution. I think they would all want change but no revolution. They know that if there is a real revolution they would be set outside with the garbage.
@ Arash
I would say that is very much depending on what happens in the streets the coming weeks. I suspect we will have some big street protests. If so then how will the Guards and Basij re-act !?
Ps. and u are right, so far it is a brilliantly executed plan...
@ Amy & Arshama
Regarding the economy. Please note that A.N and Pasdaran have one HUGE Ace uo their sleaves. Obama wants to score and a deal with Iran is just how that can be done. Obama gets Iran to go easy again with the Nuclear aspirations and Iran gets a carrot the size of Statue of Librety. Problem solved.
kevina
re your comment #26
You're right about Mousavi's reference to the Palestinian occupation-- it's 2 slams rolled into one... (1) the occupation itself and (2) the occupier is Israel.
I'm surprised at a lot of the things Mousavi & Karoubi are able to say without repercussion. Mousavi disappears after particularly outrageous statements & whenever there's a protest. I assume it's against his wishes because he always turns up again. Karoubi is the one who amazes me. He seems to be able to say just about anything. There's the occasional hand-smack, but nothing major, even after the rape and torture revelations. At first I thought they leave him alone as a sort of harmless token liberal who always loses the election, but not so harmless any more. I wonder how it works for him-- he doesn't have the political machinery like Hashemi... doesn't appear to have money
I've been following the interesting exchanges between Afshin, Amy and whereismyvote.
I'm trying to guess Ahmadinejad's masterplan in terms of both domestic and foreign policy (which will in turn impact Rafsanjani's moves).
Domestic policy: I think he'll promote a new Mahdist ideology, backed by Mesbah Yazdi, and implemented through a Gang of Four-style cultural revolution with the Mashaei's help. It'll start with purging universities and extend to all other institutions. Lots of heads will roll.
Foreign policy: Also based on a Mahdist mission, it will entail militant acts of provocation and aggression--by proxy/directly--in the ME/N Africa and possibly E Asia. AN wants to position himself as THE new universalist Islamic ideologue and steal the show from other rivals for the position, including Al Qaeda. In this, he'll have to aim not only at the West but try to intimidate and overcome Sunni Islam.
I figure the impact of his foreign policy will override any domestic opposition, which will be resolved by brutal force.
That's what I think was his masterplan before the election. The protests dented his image and perhaps the timing of rolling out the plan, but given the confirmation of his cabinet, his new foreign ambassadors, and IRGC support, he'll try to implement is asap, SL & Rafsanjani be damned.
Afshin
interesting thought on the economy. Do you think AN understands the magnitude of the economic disaster he has created? He's done a lot of chest-thumping about not bowing to the West-- do you think he would make nuclear concessions so easily, or would he have to be looking into the abyss? He would need to act pretty quickly bec lifting sanctions won't fix everything & it would take a while for the effect to kick in. To act soon means he would have to understand how bad things are right now.
@ Amy
He is much smarter then people give him credit for. And it;s not just the sanctions. there are huge incentives they can get. Like membership to World Trade Organisation, foreign money, loans from world bank, etc etc
Afshin
Maybe so... I tend to equate him with Bush, ie propped up by handlers-- the analogy is hard to shake.
The other goodies would take a while bec they'd want to see what he does as opposed to what he says. The immediate effect probably would be gradual lifting of sanctions which would mean increasing business opportunities for those who least deserve them. The other stuff would come along later-- maybe World Bank loans if there was a crisis... hmmm 2nd thought below
@ Mahasti
Your analysis is similar to the story Israel and America (under Bush) have tried to sell us, that irrational mad men have taken over Iran and are hell bent on spread of destruction and Armageddon. They then extend this argument to say, spread Armageddon to the mad men, by mad means before they do it to us first.....
I think you have to see AN as a great tactician and the Pasdaran as a master strategist. They want power, money and control. Their ideology serves their means not their means the ideology. These men will sell their mother as a whore around the corner from their home, if it serves their purpose and let them get promoted.
This kind of person is not likely to commit suicide by doing what you mention. The more likely outcome is that they will create a sort of Putin / China like state, where the security / military apparatus controls the key economic indicators, and has pushed out its opponents.
@AMY
In an earlier comment you asked me what would I have America do? Nothing different than what Obama is doing... Each country is accountable to its own strategic needs / wants and I think Obama is doing a solid balanced job for America. It is unfortunate that in 2003 Bush rejected the unconditional offer Iran made to America for a grand barging. After this reject, the Pasdaran were turned to unconditionally by SL for providing protection. Their plan was accepted, which succeeded in pushing back an imminent American offensive into Iran (The Cheney plan) and now they are sweeping the prize, which is the price of success in their eye.
@whereismyvote
SPOT ON
whereismyvote
Ah, now I see-- to me, one of the missing pieces has been why SL felt a need to put himself into the hands of the Pasdaran. Unfortunately it makes too much sense in terms of BushCo's delusional Middle East designs. The damage of Bush regime policies will haunt both of our countries for years to come.
Amy - I watched a recent speech by Mashaei talking about the coming of a colossal "revolution" -- not necessarily a military/political upheaval but one that would make us "shed our skin". Coupled with Ahmadinejad's own speeches and his association with Mashaei, I take this not only as rhetoric but a plan, a cultural revolution to reinvent Islam in some concept of Mahdism. That's all I need to know that there's a real ambition there. The fact that Bush/Cheney/Israel jumped on that to promote their own aggressive plans is beside the point.
Granted Ahmadinejad isn't blind or crazy, he is still incredibly ambitious about playing a star role on the world stage. The question is, how will that ambition play out in his foreign policy, not just vis-a-vis the West, but very imporantely, in the Muslim world? He wants to be the baddest bad guy out there. He's been working on the script for the past few years and has another 4 to accomplish his goal. So, what's his plan? I can't imagine him quietly negotiating away out of a sense of pragmatism. He'll try to score by being offensive; in what form and to what extent, I don't know. But offensive, he'll be.
That doesn't mean I'd advocate any pre-emptive military action; that would make matters qualitatively worse; fatal. But we shouldn't close our eyes to Ahmadinejad's game plan just because of the Neocons' [failed] agenda either. That would be unwise. Obama has a head on his shoulders where Bush had a lump. That's the saving grace for the moment. But I feel we aren't thinking much beyond the moment.
mahasti
I'm in the US & am a total novice when it comes to the politics and politicians of Iran. I have learned 99% of what I know since this year's election. Here at EA, I'm fascinated by the conversations, but I can assure you that my biggest contribution is that my questions & comments sometimes lead to interesting conversations because there is so much people have to explain to me. Basically the response is, "Ah, Grasshopper, keep listening and one day you, too, can snatch the fly out of the air without falling off the podium..."
So... the global aspirations of Ahmadinejad... For a long time it won't matter what they are.
All the grand plans discussed today refer to an inside power game. What if AN woke up tomorrow and found that that game was over & he had won... that all Reformists and Greens & maybe even SL had been transported to an alternate universe? If he wanted to do what you suggest, he'd still be in no position to do anything about it. The country's broke and, frankly, nobody outside of Iran likes him. AN holds a few international cards, but no trump cards. The West wants a nuclear deal, but nobody's desperate for it... He can get some concessions, but nobody's going to put all the chips on the table to get a deal.
I think whereismyvote nailed it... the Russia / China model... To me, the govts of all 3 countries seem very inwardly focused. They have international interests, but their main concern is internal control. All 3 use media and communications technology to this end. They use military or militia to control border regions & neighboring countries. Hizbollah and Hamas serve this kind of function for Iran, but I don't think the regime can afford much support anymore. I just don't see an international or pan-Islamic vision here. And if AN does harbor such dreams, he's a long way from being able to do anything about it.
Amy - Your reassurances are very reassuring, really.
And I agree with whereismyvote's China analogy in the sense of intolerance for internal dissent and interest in foreign trade. But the BIG difference is that unlike China, Iran is not bent on economic development (which requires people) and lives on its oil revenue. Therefore AN thinks he doesn't need the people except as cheerleaders and militia (or military, as the case may be).
True, with the economy on the verge of collapse, he won't be able to keep up and people will eventually revolt. And you're right that he doesn't have much money to spare on cross-border projects. All I'm saying is that like Napoleon, he nevertheless has his eyes on a bigger world, and like the other Napoleon, he thinks he's always right. Hopefully you're also right and he's neither foolish enough nor financially capable enough to go there.
@ mahasti
In World Politics not everything is as it seems. I really think that the Harsh speeches, the agressive style etc of A.N is just bluffing, He knows he needs to make a deal with the west, and given the chance he will, he just wants to get the best deal out of it.
Iran is not a country that starts war. (the only beef they have that they act on is with Israel and even then its always indirectly) A.N knows how far he can go without going to far. At the end the diffrence of muscle power is so big that he is in no situation to take on the Us or the west.
Oh yes, Please if we compare A.N to someone lets take Hitler instead of Napoleon, Its sad to have a great man such as Napoleon being compared to this guy...
Folks
I think Afshin really got it when he said "if they could make a deal with the west, they would"
I tell you one fact for sure. Much of the battle between the reformers and the conservatives since 1997 has not been around whether we will make a deal with the west or not, but rather more subtly as to who will make such a deal? Initially Khatami came out trying to snatch the deal, only to be undercut from two sides by Clinton with his triple pre conditions and Khamanei at home. Then Bush came out with both pistols blazing and deal making was suspended. Now that SL has the right western atmosphere and AN is knee deep in internal B.S. I doubt very much there is anything other than unreasonable demands from the west to stop a deal.
A deal will entail some nuclear inspection tradeoff for guarantees in Economic, Military and Geo political spheres. Iran will give up on Hammas, in return for Hezbullah being recognized. Iran will give some energy concessions in return for technical input for its southern fields. Iran will give some guarantees on its role in Iraq in return for American guarantees with respect to attack on Iran. America will agree to stop unconditionally blocking Iran, and Iran will go away with the 40 Billion America has frozen for the last 30 years. The interest on the 40 Billion is forgotten and some kind words and ambassadors are exchanged over time. West will spin the whole thing as a humanitarian effort to ease the pain of Iranian people and to help the common man. AN will take a victory suite and Pasdaran will line their pockets.
The deal is inevitable, the only viability is the terms conditions and the person making it. SL wants to make the deal, and sees in doing so, the ability to push Rafsanjani out once and for all. Rafsanjani should be making it, cause he is a good sales man and will get the best deal. Iran will go on and in 10 years we will have other street protests. I hope the greens win and this scenario does not come true, but rather the greens and Rafsanjani alliance make the deal. Cause we will get a democracy and long lasting change as opposed to a fist full of dollars and more Ideologue Muslim dogs.....
homer_s