What is Iran's Military Capacity?

The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

As Iran tested long-range missiles on Monday , Reuters considered Tehran's military capacity in the context of a possible war between Iran and Israel.

Amidst talk of an Israeli pre-emptive strike, Tehran issued another defiant statement. "If this [Israeli attack] happens, which of course we do not foresee, its ultimate result would be that it expedites the Zionist regime's last breath," Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said on state television.

ARMED FORCES: Iran has more than 523,000 personnel in active service. Major General Ataollah Salehi is the armed forces chief.

ARMY: The army comprises about 350,000 men, including 220,000 conscripts. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, viewed as the most loyal guardian of the ruling system, has another 125,000 men. In 2004 the army was organized in four corps, with four armored divisions and six infantry divisions.

There are 1,600 tanks including some 100 Zulfiqar locally produced main battle tanks. A large number of Iran's tanks are elderly British-made Chieftains and U.S.-made M-60s. Soviet-made T-54 and T-55s, T-59s, T-62s, and T-72s were also part of the inventory, all captured from the Iraqis or acquired from North Korea and China. A report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies says that some of the tanks' serviceability may be in doubt.

There are around 640 armored personnel carriers. There are 8,196 artillery pieces of which 2,010 are towed, and over 310 are self-propelled.

MISSILES: In a 2007 parade to mark the anniversary of 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, Iran unveiled its Shahab 3 missile, saying it could travel 2,000 km, enabling it to hit Israel and U.S. bases in the region. Another missile at the parade, the Ghadr 1, can reach targets 1,800 km (1,100 miles) away. It was believed to be the first time it has been shown publicly. In November 2008, Iran said it test-fired a Sejil missile with a range of close to 2,000 km.

NAVY: There are 18,000 naval personnel. The navy has its headquarters at Bandar-e Abbas. Iran's navy has three Russian Kilo class submarines, three frigates, and two corvettes.

As of 2001 the regular Iranian navy was in a state of overall obsolescence because it had not been equipped with modern ships and weapons. The readiness of the three frigates is doubtful, and the two nearly 40-year-old corvettes do not have sophisticated armaments.

In late 2007 Iran launched a new locally made submarine and a navy frigate Jamaran. Jane's Defense Weekly has reported that Iran was also building missile-launching frigates copied from 275-tonne Kaman fast-attack missile craft originally purchased from France in the late 1970s.

AIR FORCE: The air force has some 30,000 personnel and 319 combat aircraft. There are F-14 and MiG 29 aircraft, Russian-built Sukhoi Su-24s and 25s, and Iran also has transport aircraft and helicopters. There are also some aircraft impounded from Iraq. However, serviceability may be as low as around 60 percent of U.S. aircraft types and 80 percent of Russian aircraft.

In September 2007, Iran said it had tested two new domestically-produced jet fighters. State television said the Saegheh was a new generation of the Azarakhsh (Lightning) fighter. Iran said it was being built on an industrial scale.

The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei's End-of-Ramadan Speech

NEW Iran's Qods Day: A Participant On the Isfahan Marches
NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi for the Nobel Peace Prize?
Iran After Qods Day: What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?
Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day
Iran: Another Qods Day Participant Writes
Latest Iran Video: More from Qods Day (18-19 September)
Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Picture of Day. OK, so Hashemi Rafsanjani showed up in the front row of the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr prayers near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but he doesn't look too thrilled about the President, does he? Captions welcomed.

2000 GMT: The Clerics' Relatives. More on the Saturday release of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri (see 0840 GMT). They each had to post $20,000 bail as did the children of Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi and Ayatollah Nazemzadeh.

1810 GMT: Stand by Your Man. In a move overshadowed by Qods Day, President Ahmadinejad has reconfirmed Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as the head of his Presidential office.

This is far more than an appointment. Given the conservative and principlist opposition that forced Ahmadinejad to withdraw Rahim-Mashai's selection as 1st Vice President, this is a symbol that the President rules within the Establishment. The reconfirmation also comes despite Rahim-Mashai's recent suspension over charges of financial misconduct.

1455 GMT: Speculation of Day - Khamenei-Rafsanjani Deal? Some Twitter-based Iranian activists have come up with the most intriguing analysis of the Khamenei speech and Hashemi Rafsanjani's attendance.

The Supreme Leader's declaration that evidence from confessions in court cannot be used against third parties is an "immunity" for Rafsanjani and his family. (Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi and other Rafsanjani relatives were prominently charged in confessions with political and financial impropriety in the initial Tehran trials.) In exchange for this, Rafsanjani showed his support for Khamenei with his presence in the front row of the audience.

I wouldn't go as far as deal but would see this as a return by the Supreme Leader to his Friday prayer speech of 19 June where he supported the Ahmadinejad election but also praised Rafsanjani and slapped down the President's pre-election allegations of corruption.

1315 GMT: Alternatively, you can fail by ignoring anybody inside Iran except the Supreme Leader. That's the choice of The Times of London, which doesn't seem to realise that the primary target of Khamenei's address was the opposition inside the country rather than "arch-foe Israel, Western powers and foreign media networks".

Thank goodness, Reuters has now put out an article recognising the Supreme Leader's linking of "foreign media" and his internal challengers.

1240 GMT: The "Western" media is on the verge of a major failure in its portrayal of Iran's internal situation. For some reason, Associated Press turned a minor extract from the Supreme Leader's speech, "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity," into the main theme that the regime was retreating from post-election conflict (see 0940 GMT). This soon raced as a headline around the Internet and US broadcast outlets, who use AP as gospel to compensate for their lack of coverage, prepared to run this as a major change in the regime's position.

Only problem is that the Supreme Leader's overall message was one of confrontation with the opposition, bringing him more in line with the approach of President Ahmadinejad. He made his strongest statement in weeks linking protest with the supposed direction of a "velvet revolution" by Israel and the US (see 0950 GMT) and issued a warning --- directed first at Mehdi Karroubi --- about any claims of detainee abuse (see 0955 GMT). A glance at Fars News' coverage and that of the Islamic Republic News Agency reveals no reference to the statement regarding trials and an emphasis on the "velvet revolution" theme.

We have been in contact with CNN in the hope that the broadcaster may recognise the danger of reliance on the AP report and will take a closer look at sources that reflect the real significance of Khamenei's message. One of the five lessons of Qods Day for us was "the wanderings of the Supreme Leader"; well, he has now broken his silence and looks to be wandering into line with the Ahmadinejad Government.

1235 GMT: Holding Out. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has continued his defiance of the Supreme Leader's declaration, announcing that Ramadan only ends this evening and that Eid al-Fitr should be on Monday.

1040 GMT: Apart from Khamenei's speech, the buzz is that Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan made prominent appearance at Eid-al-Fitr prayers. An EA correspondent considers: "Seems like Khamenei at the least succeded in persuading them to show up for a - at least at face value - show of unity. However, what Rafsanjani's real aims and intentions are remain a total mystery. My gut feeling is that he is continuing to take part in at least part of the regime's events to provide some sort of a cloak for Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, staving off the chances of them being arrested. Needs to be seen if this will alleviate the dire conditions of those in jail though."

0955 GMT: And it worth be worthwhile to note Khamenei's implicit defense of those within the regime accused of abuses in the post-election crisis: "The media should refrain from publicizing allegations leveled by foreign media against certain individuals in the country accusing them of betrayal and other wrongdoings....This would not be acceptable."

0950 GMT: Defying Friday. The real story of the Khamenei speech is the Supreme Leader's effort to turn back any notion of challenge from the Qods Day demonstrations. He did this by linking the line on Israel/Palestine with the contention that the nation had stood against Western-led troublemakers on Friday.

Qods Day had been a “day of loud and clear shouts” against the “deadly cancer of Zionism...spreading through the invading hands of the occupiers and arrogant powers... which is gnawing into the lives of the Islamic nations”. Then the Supreme Leader, who only a few weeks ago was denying that Iran had been threatened by a "velvet revolution", took aim at the attempt at "velvet revolution":

The enemies tried to undermine the Quds Day rally, but the rally showed that the schemes of the enemies were not effective....In the past few months, Western leaders fell for their media, professional press analysts and radios and televisions and thought they could influence the Iranian nation. But you showed that they were chasing a mirage....This year, more than before, they tried to weaken the Quds Day, but the glorious Quds Day in Tehran showed the whole world the direction in which the revolution and Iran was heading. It showed that their (Western politicians) tricks, spending money and political evilness does not influence the Iranian nation.

0940 GMT: Flight from Friday. When I saw the newsflash, I thought the Supreme Leader was making a signficant effort at compromise: "Iran's Khamenei signals easing in election tension." Turns out, however, that the supposed shift is only that of an Associated Press headline writer who must be unaware of the drama and tension of Qods Day. The Supreme Leader's comment, in a speech marking the end of Ramadan, was simply a vague allusion to a possible easing of the pressure of trials: "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity."

0840 GMT: Report that Mehdi and Ali Montazeri, two of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's grandchildren detained on Monday, were released Saturday.

0745 GMT: It's Not Just Tehran. Maryam at Keeping the Change has posted an overview of the Qods Day marches in Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz, Rasht, and Mashad. We've posted the account of one participant in the Isfahan march in a separate entry.

0630 GMT: It seems we are now in a relatively quiet phase of this crisis. Very little has come out on the Government side since Friday, possibly because Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and close aides are now focused on the President's trip to New York and speech to the United Nations General Assembly, and the oppposition has also chosen to assess the outcome of Qods Day before making its next move. Only Mehdi Karroubi's meeting with medical faculty, featuring his comments that he will press claims in court of detainee abuse the "would make the Shah look good", broke the silence.

Instead, as we noted as the end of last night, the biggest ripple was a dispute, full of symbolism, over whether Ramadan ended with the appearance of the crescent of the moon last night. Senior clerics, countering the Supreme Leader, said no. The national holiday has still been declared of course, and Eid al-Fitr will still be celebrated by many, but it will be interesting to see if the senior clerics' claim resonates with Iranian people.

The Latest from Iran (17 September): Tomorrow

Latest Iran Video: Ayatollah Dastgheib Condemns Khamenei (31 Aug/5 Sept?)
UPDATED Iran: The NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad
Qods Day: A Protest For Palestine or Against Iran’s Government?
Iran: So, What Are the Green Movement’s Goals Tomorrow?
Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

2055 GMT: Reports that writer and blogger Ali Pirhousienlou and hsi wife Fatemeh Sotoudeh have been arrested.

1930 GMT: In addition to the assassination of the Assembly of Experts member (1750 GMT), it is reported that the Chief Prosecutor in Kurdestan has been shot.

1845 GMT: Tomorrow's march routes for Mashhad and for Rasht have been posted.

1750 GMT: In the latest of a series of assassinations in the province, the Kurdistan representative on the Assembly of Experts was killed today.

1705 GMT: An EA source sends us this from a Tehran resident: "People will come out but many are also leaving Tehran as it is a long weekend. Saturday is half closed and Sunday is a holiday. Many who participated in previous demonstrations are leaving Tehran or have left already and many are much scared of what happened to their colleagues, friends and other citizens."

1640 GMT: The Marches. Iranian activist HomyLafayette has posted the routes for tomorrow's marches in Tehran (7 routes ending at the University of Tehran; start at 10 a.m. local time; 0530 GMT), Isfahan, and Tabriz.

1545 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Mohammad Maleki, the former chancellor of Tehran University, has been charged with acting against Iran's national security. Maleki, who is 76 and suffering from prostate cancer, was arrested on 22 August.

1410 GMT: Mehdi Mousavi-Nejad, the brother of the wife of detained former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, has been arrested.

1310 GMT: Lemming MediaFail. Adding to NBC's threatened ludicrous journalism at the court of President Ahmadinejad (see separate entry), Reuters offers a spectacularly bad headline, "Iran opposition leaders to attend anti-Israel rally".

And in case you think that this is a slip-up and they do realise that the main reason for marching tomorrow is to maintain pressure on the Government, they repeat in the article, "Defeated presidential candidates Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi said they would attend the anti-Israel rally."

1305 GMT: The Government Warning. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued its threat through the Islamic Republic News Agency: "We are warning people and the movements who want to help the Zionist regime that if you seek any disruption or disorder during the glorious Quds Day rally, you will be decisively confronted by the courageous children of Iran....The enemies of the regime and the revolution and those who were defeated in the recent election are trying to take revenge for what happened on election day."

The IRGC claimed that dissent is part of a plan by "foreign networks, especially the Zionist regime's intelligence service to create disruption and division in the people's united movement."

1300 GMT: The Plan. Mehdi Karroubi's office has announced that the cleric will leave his offices at 11 a.m. local time tomorrow to march to 7 Tir Square for the Qods Day rally.

1240 GMT: Well, Well. The Internet is buzzing with reports of a visit by Mir Hossein Mousavi to Qom on Tuesday night, where he met Ayatollah Sane'i, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, the brother of Ayatollah Montazeri, Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, and the representative of Iraq's Ayatollah Sistani. Mousavi also participated in a meeting of the Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom.

We are confirming the exact date of the trip.

1030 GMT: Going After the Children. Confirming news we received last night: Mehdi Mirdamadi, the son of Mohsen Mirdamadi, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, was arrested last night. Mohsen Mirdamadi has been detained since shortly after the election.

Hossein Nourinejad, head of the information committee of the IIPF, and IIPF member Mehdi Mahmoudian have also been arrested.

1015 GMT: Credit to The Guardian of London, who have been running some interesting analysis on their website (though, unfortunately, not in the print edition). This morning Ranj Alaaldin and Nicholas Zanjani offer thoughts on "Ahmadinejad's desperate gamble", believing that his "administration depends on a redistribution of wealth for support and the flight of capital from Iran will hurt".

The article may be over-dramatic --- "As money continues to reverse course and leave the pockets of his supporters, those who voted for Ahmadinejad are being left to wonder why the government deserves their continuing loyalty" --- but it does raise the point, overlooked by most in the media but pressed on EA by Chris Emery, that the long-term weakness for the Government and possibly the regime lies in their management of the economy.

0800 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times focuses on "Iran Opposition Leader Sidelined from Rally", in what Robert Worth sees as "a striking break from precedent that suggests the country’s hard-line leaders fear the event could turn into an opposition rally". Borzou Daragahi runs the same story in The Los Angeles Times but turns the analysis into "the declining influence of Iranian moderates within the political elite". The Washington Post, with its preference for worry over Iran's nuclear programme, has nothing this morning.

Some of the broadcast media have now wandered from poor to terrible. NBC Television's staff have been shouting about their "exclusive" interview with President Ahmadinejad, to be broadcast in a few hours, but they have no apparent knowledge of Qods Day. CNN's Twitter posse have just proclaimed that they'll be following Qods Day. Last news story on the CNN website from inside Iran? 11 September.

0550 GMT: Looking towards the speeches and rallies on Qods (Jerusalem) Day on Friday, we've posted an analysis in the form of an important question, "What are the Green Movement's Goals?" Later this morning, we'll post an overview of the Qods Day marches by Meir Javedanfar.

Catching up with a couple of developments from yesterday:

An EA correspondent notes that the Rafsanjani interview downplaying his forced withdrawal from Qods Day prayers, summarised in Wednesday's updates, was carried by Al-Alam, the Arabic-language service of Iran's state television. The correspondent notes, "Why Rafsanajani chose to grant them his first post-electoral interview could be subject of speculation. Maybe he was told to tell the Arab world that Iran is not imploding?"

And a warning sign for Friday: Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Basiji militia in the town of Varamin have been distributing leaflets calling on their forces to converge on Tehran.

The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull --- Storm?

NEW Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
NEW Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
Transcript: Israel and Its (Lack of) Options on Iran
The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing
Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1820 GMT: The Norooz newssite, as well as the main site (see 1550 GMT), is down. Mowj-e-Sabz is up again.

1800 GMT: Will He or Won't He? Rumours and chatter throughout the day on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will lead this Friday's prayers on Qods Day. Entekhab News is one example of the line that Rafsanjani has not withdrawn.

1608 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has appointed Mohammad Reza Rahimi, a vice president during his first four-year term, as his First Vice President.

1600 GMT: Rafsanjani Breaks Cover? If this story is true, this could be an indication that the former President is still allied with the Green movement in the challenge to the Government: the Karroubi website Etemade Melli reports that Hashemi Rafsanjani will resign all his positions, which include head of the Expediency Council and of the Assembly of Experts, if Mehdi Karroubi is detained.

1550 GMT: Both the Green movement website Mowj-e-Sabz and the reformist site Norooz, which reported it was under heavy cyber-attack from the Iranian authorities, appear to be down. Etemade Melli (Saham News) is still up.

1330 GMT: Beheshti Freed. The Kalameh website of Mir Hossein Mousavi broke the news that Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, has benn freed after five days in detention. Other reports indicate that members of Imam Khomeini's family met Beheshti soon after his release.

1210 GMT: Threats Everywhere. In addition to the warnings being thrown at Mehdi Karroubi, Fars reports that the President's office will sue Grand Ayatollah Yusef Sane'i for allegedly insulting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: “Following an insulting speech made in a ceremony by Mr Sanei against the president, the president’s legal office has prepared a complaint against him. The complaint will be submitted to the Special Court for Clergy."1200 GMT: Trials Resume. Agence France Presse reports, from the Islamic Republic News Agency, that the fifth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be held Monday morning. Some Iranian reporters will be allowed into the court, but foreign media will be barred.

IRNA is also headlining the opinion of "a group of activists, politicians, and MPs" that, as no one has judicial immunity, Mehdi Karroubi should be tried for false claims of detainee abuses.

1100 GMT: A report from an Iranian activist via Twitter that Dr. Ebrahim Amini, a board member of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party, has been arrested in Shiraz. If true, the regime has now arrested three members of the Reform Committee that was investigating detainee abuse.

1050 GMT: Controlling the Enquiry? An interesting article in Etemad, summarised in Reuters, points both to the regime's efforts to show it is doing something about claims of detainee abuse and to keep the initiative out of the hands of Mehdi Karroubi.

Mohammad-Kazem Bahrami, head of the Armed Forces' Judicial Organization, said that 90 people had filed complaints of mistreatment at the Kahrizak detention centre.
He added that there had been further arrests, although he gave no details on the identities or positions of the suspects: "Until Wednesday, seven people who were accused of being involved in the case have been detained."

There was no mention in the article of Karroubi, who has been pressing the cases of abused detainees.

1025 GMT: Apologies for the glitch (my error, rather than technical, I'm afraid) which took this page down for an hour.

0910 GMT: We've followed up on a story earlier this week by posting a summary of the open letter from Iranian political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader.

0830 GMT: A late start for us this morning, as we recover from a week of tension. Very little emerging from Iran this morning, with the best of the Western media such as The New York Times focusing on yesterday's rejection by the three-member judiciary panel --- for "lack of evidence" --- of Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of detainee abuse.

One piece of breaking news: Mamosta Borhan Ali, the Sunni Friday Prayer leader in Sanandaj in Kurdestan Province was assassinated on Saturday night.

Transcript: Israel and Its (Lack of) Options on Iran

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor has told Reuters that "superpowers had to do stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons either militarily or through further sanctions". Yet what may be most striking in the interview is that, beyond that tough assertion, Meridor is unwilling or unable to pursue a specific line because of the positions of other countries. He cannot endorse military operations; he cannot condemn the engagement of President Obama, and his "concerted intensive action" is hostage to the support of China and Russia.

Meridor's statement:

The time is now. There is no more time to waste, and that's not only the Israeli perspective, it's much more general.

I remember that in 2003 they suspended enrichment because the Americans looked strong enough after the invasion of Iraq.

The clock is ticking, in the sense that when nothing is done (to dissuade Iran), something (enrichment) is done all the time. Time is relevant and of the essence here. How long? I don't want to go into that here...The trend is clear.

I'm not speaking of military action. I don't want to give any word that would be misinterpreted. I intentionally put this issue in its broader context. Of course there is a special case in Israel because Iranian leaders say, not only (President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad, that Israel is not legitimate and should not exist, and one sees the building up of weapons, not to speak of the meaningful involvement in terror all over the place... One should not close one's eyes but we are in a way fortunate that this is not only Israel's problem.

Our policy is a good one and it worked well. And we are known to be quite a responsible country. We are in a unique position. There are formulas we use all the time (to address this issue). I will not say what we have, if we have or we don't have (nuclear weapons), but the fact is that the alarm in the Arab world is related to the fear that Iran may have it.

It [Iran's having a nuclear weapon] is not in the distant future. When they decide exactly this or exactly that is a good question but it's not the main question. The trend is clear and if you want to be an owner of nuclear weapons or have the capability of being a nuclear power it changes the balance of power.

I can't say that [the U.S. engagement's being called as a "waste of time"], because the other option didn't work either... If it works, it works. What I think we look for is the result, whether you do it with soft spoken language or with a heavy stick. I'd rather do it with a positive (method), but that doesn't always work.

It's important there is an understanding, a will, a capability, if all join hands, to enforce a concerted intensive action -- which is not military action, I speak of political and economic measures -- that may be taken if the Russians and Chinese can get on board.

If there is no perception of a concerted effort the other countries who are concenred with the possibility of a nuclear Iran could develop their own in the meantime... Then you will find a different world, one harder for a superpower to manage.

I don't think Russia has an interest in a nuclear Iran. Maybe they want to be considered as a partner, not to be told what to do. I am not for or against the Russians. I am saying they are important elements. Their have an important role in the world. Communism might be dead. Russia is not.