The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull --- Storm?

NEW Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
NEW Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
Transcript: Israel and Its (Lack of) Options on Iran
The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing
Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?

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1820 GMT: The Norooz newssite, as well as the main site (see 1550 GMT), is down. Mowj-e-Sabz is up again.

1800 GMT: Will He or Won't He? Rumours and chatter throughout the day on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will lead this Friday's prayers on Qods Day. Entekhab News is one example of the line that Rafsanjani has not withdrawn.

1608 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has appointed Mohammad Reza Rahimi, a vice president during his first four-year term, as his First Vice President.

1600 GMT: Rafsanjani Breaks Cover? If this story is true, this could be an indication that the former President is still allied with the Green movement in the challenge to the Government: the Karroubi website Etemade Melli reports that Hashemi Rafsanjani will resign all his positions, which include head of the Expediency Council and of the Assembly of Experts, if Mehdi Karroubi is detained.

1550 GMT: Both the Green movement website Mowj-e-Sabz and the reformist site Norooz, which reported it was under heavy cyber-attack from the Iranian authorities, appear to be down. Etemade Melli (Saham News) is still up.

1330 GMT: Beheshti Freed. The Kalameh website of Mir Hossein Mousavi broke the news that Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, has benn freed after five days in detention. Other reports indicate that members of Imam Khomeini's family met Beheshti soon after his release.

1210 GMT: Threats Everywhere. In addition to the warnings being thrown at Mehdi Karroubi, Fars reports that the President's office will sue Grand Ayatollah Yusef Sane'i for allegedly insulting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: “Following an insulting speech made in a ceremony by Mr Sanei against the president, the president’s legal office has prepared a complaint against him. The complaint will be submitted to the Special Court for Clergy."1200 GMT: Trials Resume. Agence France Presse reports, from the Islamic Republic News Agency, that the fifth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be held Monday morning. Some Iranian reporters will be allowed into the court, but foreign media will be barred.

IRNA is also headlining the opinion of "a group of activists, politicians, and MPs" that, as no one has judicial immunity, Mehdi Karroubi should be tried for false claims of detainee abuses.

1100 GMT: A report from an Iranian activist via Twitter that Dr. Ebrahim Amini, a board member of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party, has been arrested in Shiraz. If true, the regime has now arrested three members of the Reform Committee that was investigating detainee abuse.

1050 GMT: Controlling the Enquiry? An interesting article in Etemad, summarised in Reuters, points both to the regime's efforts to show it is doing something about claims of detainee abuse and to keep the initiative out of the hands of Mehdi Karroubi.

Mohammad-Kazem Bahrami, head of the Armed Forces' Judicial Organization, said that 90 people had filed complaints of mistreatment at the Kahrizak detention centre.
He added that there had been further arrests, although he gave no details on the identities or positions of the suspects: "Until Wednesday, seven people who were accused of being involved in the case have been detained."

There was no mention in the article of Karroubi, who has been pressing the cases of abused detainees.

1025 GMT: Apologies for the glitch (my error, rather than technical, I'm afraid) which took this page down for an hour.

0910 GMT: We've followed up on a story earlier this week by posting a summary of the open letter from Iranian political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader.

0830 GMT: A late start for us this morning, as we recover from a week of tension. Very little emerging from Iran this morning, with the best of the Western media such as The New York Times focusing on yesterday's rejection by the three-member judiciary panel --- for "lack of evidence" --- of Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of detainee abuse.

One piece of breaking news: Mamosta Borhan Ali, the Sunni Friday Prayer leader in Sanandaj in Kurdestan Province was assassinated on Saturday night.

Comments

[yseut]

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-wright13-2009sep13,0,4086252.story

[yseut]

http://raheazadi.com/1388/06/11/ayatollah-mesbah-yazdi-sodomy-and-rape-of-protesters-is-ok/

Could anyone fluent in farsi can comment this weird-monstruous
post ? (found on Twitter as usual) Thanx very much ! Yseut

[Scott Lucas]

Yseut,

EA's Chris Emery and Marjam of Keeping the Change were able to establish that this was originally a black-comedy satire which became "news" --- http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/04/iran-satire-becomes-news-ahmadinejads-ayatollah-and-prisoner-rape/.

S.

[Scott Lucas]

Yseut,

I thought this opinion piece, from a couple of the best US-based observers, was very good. Interesting to see a swell of "expert" opinion in the US backing engagement; let's see if it is maintained against the counter-pressure of media concerns over the Iranian nuclear programme.

S.

[M.R]

Scott ,
In my opinion even though Misbah's beliefs has a lot of problems. And it is why Ayatullah khomeini did not allow his belief to grow and spread within the clerics and Houza Elmieh (cleric studies) in Qom (for example when he was talking about American Islam,this included Hujatiah society and Misbah) However what so clear is that non of the scholars and religious thinkers agree with the things that has been said in that link, i.e torture, rape and confession under pressure, and this also include Misbah, as this is agianst the Islamic and Shia'a belief.
Thats exatcly why the regim closed down Karrubi's and Musavi's office to take any evidence, as no one will justify them.

[yseut]

Scott, thanks for clearing up the raheazadi.com's page, i saw the
mention of this a week ago on E.A 'Latest from Iran', but didn't
check out the original article due to the grimness of the subject...
Ouf ! Then, about U.S. 'experts' and the late switch of interest
for the last days situation in Iran via mainstream press , it's to be
noted that some E.U.papers concerned enough to publish anything
on the topic (El Pais, Le Monde and ,superficially, Libération)
tend to associate 'crackdown on opposition' situation to 'nukes talks'
in their prose...which is at least a progress, compared to the 'stop
Iran bomb or bomb Iran' massively oriented articles of these past weeks,
both in USA and EU (a thin line between journalism and propaganda...)
I put this link to Dafna Linzer feature (eloquent enough, no new facts but
slight change of perspective), found on a site called Probublica, dated from
a few days ago
http://www.propublica.org/article/iran-offer-includes-willingness-for-talks-on-nuclear-disarmament-but-no-910
Bon travail ! Yseut

[yseut]

tweet on persianbanoo says that M.Alireza Beheshti released
on bail and visited by Hossein Khomeney, other tweets say
"90% confirmed" (!!)
source in farsi : http://www.kaleme.com/pages/329.php

[Amy]

yseut
anything about Alireza Beheshti's condition? A couple of days ago, there were reports that he was horribly beaten. I hope they were rumors

[Scott Lucas]

M.R.

Thanks --- I think the tensions within Qom will only increase if the Ahmadinejad Government presses ahead with its hard line. That's why I wonder if the attacks on Karroubi and Mousavi offices may backfire, at least with the clerics.

S.

[whereismyvote]

Scott

I think in this environment of continues offensive by the AN alliance and setbacks by the green wave we all all wish the same thing. We wish that there is a major backfire by overplay from the AN side. However I fear that this is more a case of play (carrot and stick) and that the backfire will over time fickle. Lets hope for a fierce Quds day to draw major fire.

As For Meshah Yazdi, and his believes, I fear he is just more of an ideologue front man used by the Pasdaran to amass behind. Once the Pasdaran have achived their objectives Meshbah Yazdi will be quickly disposed. He does not seem to me (and I have meet him first hand) as one with the needed credentials to become a mosiyah or a supreme leader. This is however my humble opinion

[Thomas]

Whereismyvote,

What kind of man is Mesbah Yazdi? Is he likeable, polite, mean, angry, hateful, arogant, charisma or not? Truly fascinated about your view of him as a man.
If he is just the religious cover, would you conclude that Jafarii is the brains of the group? Or is someone pulling the strings that no one knows of (i.e. former Guard leader in the shadows ,etc.)?

[Cecil]

I do believe that there is some organized thugs in the IRGC who are behind all of this event. They are prepared to do whatever the cost to preserve Ahm..jad so that they can continue their own hidden agenda. Whatever it is? I dont know...

[whereismyvote]

It is not so important to look for a single leader amongst the guards. It is a group of the guards that have under the cover of Yazdi taken over. Jafari is a major player, but if you want to know who is in charge of the guards, go back to 2002 and post Afghanistan invasion. In 2003 to 2005 when bush invaded Afghanistan there was a cleansing of the guards top ranks and many guard staff of the same opinion replaced the reminder.....

This group formed an ideology / plan to fight neoconservatism with a counter new Islamic conservatism ideology. They are now in control of the IRGC.

Yazdi is a narrow minded old man. He is not charismatic in my opinion, but rather a very determined and astute individual. His believes in the Mehdi borderline superstition. He has managed to acquire a great many followers, as an underground cult like movement within the establishment.

[Thomas]

WMIV,

Thanks. Is this Mehdi sect open to anyone or just select people who would or could be in govt. or the military? The latter is basically neo-conservativism in the US. A sect of political philosphy with members in govt, military, media and intellectual think tanks.
In fairness to the Guards at that time, they should have been preparing for war. Now they can't get off the war focus because it is their only legitimacy.
Would you conclude that the Rev Coup is a group decision making process?