UPDATED Iran: So What's This "National Unity Plan"?

The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

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UPDATE 1800 GMT: A reader usefully interjects, "I would like to just remind you that "The Unity Plan' is not from Rafsanjani and it is from 'Pro-Government people seeking truce.'"

It's a fair point, but the reason that this Plan was linked to Rafsanjani was because of widespread chatter, some of it fuelled by Rafsanjani allies, that the former President was the driving force behind the initiative for political reconciliation. Mehdi Karroubi's letter, published in a separate entry, also works from that assumption.

The overriding point is that we don't know Rafsanjani's role in this plan.

UPDATE 1650 GMT: My apologies for a slip-up in the previous entry. There are only eight names listed for the 9-member committee. That is because the 9th spot is for a representative of "political opposition (Mousavi)"


UPDATE 0650 GMT: The names of the proposed nine members of the top Committee in the "draft" of the Plan: Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani (“hard-line” cleric), Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi (former head of Judiciary), Ali Akbar Velayati (former Foreign Minister), Aboutorabi Fard (Deputy Parliament Speaker), Mahmoud Doai (Head of Etalaat News and former Ambassador to Iraq), Hassan Rohani (Rafsanjani stalwart), Masih Mohajeri (editor of Jomhuri Eslami newspaper), Habibollah Asgharowladi (leader of the Motalefeh Party).

It is claimed that the "draft" was written by Habibollah Asgaroladi, M.Mirsalim, M.Bahonar (Deputy Parliament Speaker), M.Nabavi, H.Mozafar, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel (former Parliament Speaker).

UPDATE 30 September 0640 GMT: No further political developments but events at Fars News indicate that this was an early draft of a plan which the paper, either through poor journalism or an attempt to cause mischief, initially presented as a final, agreed proposal. After posting and then withdrawing several stories overnight, Fars eventually put up a version which explicitly refers to the Plan --- similar in its provisions to what we set out below --- as a "draft".

URGENT UPDATE 2015 GMT: There have been curious twists in the story. Fars had now modified its story of the document, saying that it is a "draft" from the Expediency Council. There is no date, no stamp, and no signature. (Note: within the last 30 minutes, the modified Fars story has been pulled from the website.)

This would still match up with a narrative, prominent in recent days, that the Expediency Council, chaired by Rafsanjani, had taken the initiative in producing a plan for political resolution to be considered by the Assembly of Experts. Yet, assuming the document is authentic, the story stops there. What happened to it when it was considered by the Assembly? Is the Expediency Council in charge of the process? What role does the Supreme Leader play in this political game?

Yet, the more one goes into the detail of the document, the more tenuous even this scenario becomes. The plan of a 9-person committee overseeing subcommittees to consider issues from electoral fraud to abuse of detainees is cumbersome, to say the least, but the prospects are almost fantastic. Would this complex set of committee and subcommittees dare overturn the Guardian Council's upholding of the original Presidential result or threaten widespread prosecution of security forces or government officials?

Even more striking is the document's deliberate slight of certain political figures. The repeated references to the inclusion of a representative from an "opposition candidate" (singular, not plural) and the equally repetitive naming of Mir Hossein Mousavi could not be clearer in its intent to split the Green opposition. So, if this is a plan for "National Unity", it rests upon a blunt attempt to cause disunity.

Indeed, the snub of Mehdi Karroubi (and, beyond the Green movement, Mohsen Rezaei) is so blatant that the document has a feel of "disinformation". However, if it were a false plan, one would expect it to be disowned very quickly by Mir Hossein Mousavi and, possibly, Rafsanjani. So far neither has spoken.

The other leading possibility is that this is an early draft of a plan floated by someone or some group. But whom? There the trail stops, for now.

What can be said tonight is that a purported plan for political resolution has actually provoked more division. The draft may explain why Karroubi wrote his second letter to Rafsanjani yesterday and why the tone was sharply critical. In effect, "Hashemi, why have you betrayed us?", both with a plan dividing the opposition (arguably co-opting Mousavi into the "establishment") and with the conversion of the Assembly of Experts into a body to close ranks against legitimate protest.

We're working on a full analysis of the National Unity Plan, as printed in Fars News this afternoon, but to be honest, it is so potentially dramatic in its provisions that we need time to work through the dynamics. So here's how our snap analysis unfolded. If you follow the path, you'll probably see that we think there is a convergence of forces which brings Mir Hossein Mousavi into the "acceptable" negotiations and shuts out Mehdi Karroubi. What this means for the Supreme Leader (how much influence has he lost by handing over "resolution" to a Truth Commission?) and President Ahmadinejad (is the Plan/Commission with him or against him?) is far less certain:

1550 GMT: We are working on an analysis of the "National Unity Plan" published in Fars News this afternoon but here's the headline:

The authors, who call themselves the delsoozan ("those whose hearts are aching" over the post-election conflict) have declared, "Let's join hands and fix the nezam (system)." Because of "the rise of some uncertainties in the political arena", the "elders and devotees...after several meetings have decided a plan for national unity that would enable a --- way out of the present situation".

The plan appears to be inclusive in its recommendation for a "national unity committee", with representatives from all parties including one from Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign.

1610 GMT: Sting in the Detail. But, if the National Unity Plan proposes a committee with at least one representative from the Green opposition, it also offers a big-time slap in the face to somebody:

In reality, what was witnessed after the elections was a vast effort and movement of a political entity that was against the legal institutions and pillars of the system. This went as far as the fact that during Qods Day, the sayings of the Imam and the Revolution went under attack by this group.

So was this destructive "political entity" the Green Wave?

1615 GMT: Another Cryptic Passage from the Plan. "Truth seeking commission must put the word 'end' to the current situation in the country."

1619 GMT: And, for what's it worth, an EA correspondent answers the question racing around the Internet, "Is This Rafsanjani's Plan?": "It's a Hashemi-laden letter. You can almost see his fingerprints."

1622 GMT: The Proposed Truth Commission? One representative of the marjas [senior clerics], one representative from Assembly of Experts, one representative from Interior Ministry, one rep from Majlis [Parliament], one representative from Judiciary, one representative from Expediency Council, one representative from Guardian Council, one representative from the "House of Parties", and one representative of the "protesting candidate (Mousavi)".

1628 GMT: So Who Got Left Out of the Plan? Take a look at that Commission membership again. No representative of the "other" defeated Presidential candidates, Mohsen Rezaei and Mehdi Karroubi.

1635 GMT: And while you're getting your heads around Who's In, Who's Out and Why, consider this from an EA correspondent: "The mere acceptance of this Plan by Supreme Leader would be quite something as he would have to implictly recognise that he has not been able and will not be able to cope with the situation alone and so he needs ad hoc help from 'friends and family'."

Iran: Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani (27 September)

UPDATED Iran: So What’s This “National Unity Plan”?
The Latest from Iran (30 September): Confusion

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The invaluable Iran Wiki has posted a translation of Medhi Karroubi's second letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani, published in Persian on Sunday. Reading this, I have no doubt that Karroubi is expressing genuine frustration and anger at Rafsanjani, asking why the former President has betrayed the legimitate demands of the opposition and the cases of those abused in post-election conflict:

I see that [Assembly of] Experts convened and you not only did not bring yourself to utter a word of criticism of the conditions governing the country or make any criticisms in accordance with your duties, but more curiously yet, you were absent at the closing of the session despite the importance that it had in such perilous times. I asked myself, is this the same Akbar Hashemi with that spirit which we saw in him before and after the revolution?

In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate

Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani
Honorable President of the Assembly of Experts
Greetings

This is the second letter which I have written to you following the recent pseudo-elections to the presidency.

I wrote the first because I had heard some very unpleasant and disturbing news from among the arrestees and I saw it as my duty to look into these events in accordance with your legal position and not allow transgressions against the life and property and honor of the people to become an ordinary occurrence. Unfortunately, this letter had no effect among the officials and you saw how negligence and contempt for the people’s rights has incinerated the trust we had harvested and ruined our system’s regard. Of course, the officials know the interest of their government. And so, if that letter accomplished nothing, I said to myself that perhaps it was beyond you to look into this letter.

But now I write this second letter to you because I saw that a session of the Assembly of Experts held and what needed to have been raised in it was not and what ought to have been investigated by members of this Assembly was not investigated. In a word, the Assembly of Experts, which much be the most distinguished supervisory institution in the Islamic Republic, has been turned into an ineffective institution. The result of this session was simply a few speeches and a statement which could have been issued without convening the session and gathering the esteemed members of this Assembly and exerting so much effort.

And so I decided to write this letter to you and remind you of the courage of His Eminence Imam Khomeini and the revolutionary forces of that age of monarchist oppression and remind you of the emphasis that the Imam and his disciples, such as you and myself, put on standing up to oppression and tyranny, and remind you that the Assembly of Experts' current philosophy and its members’ responsibilities so that you yourself can judge what your responsibilities were and are in these current dangerous circumstances, and to what degree you have protected the prestige of the seat in which you sit and to what extent you have defended the revolution in the post of presidency of the Assembly of Experts, the most important aim of which is to confront injustice and the violation of the people’s rights.

Honorable Mr. Hashemi,

Imam Khomeini during difficult and dangerous conditions fought hand to hand the system which was the embodiment of foreign support, armed to the teeth, which had spilled the youth’s valuable blood, in the darkness of Pahlavi absolutism, to defend Islam and the people’s freedom from absolutism and imperialism. You, who were one of the Imam’s disciples and went into battle at his side know that if it were not for his divine belief and firm will, confronting the Shah’s absolutist power and royal tyranny and that heroism and self-sacrifice would not have been a simple matter. You surely remember there were very few comrades who were of like mind in the ranks of the clergy about struggling against tyranny and absolutism under those terrifying conditions. It was a dangerous time, a time of prison and torture and arrest and exile and moving from house to house and homelessness. There was neither a great likelihood of victory nor a plan for the division of the spoils. Faith and a heart-felt belief in Islam and justice and the people ruled our hearts, and the urge to march in the desert to the Kaaba. That courage and self-sacrifice led by His Eminence the Imam of the Islamic and anti-absolutist revolution resulted in our now being its inheritors, and its thirst for justice is not limited to the borders of Iran, but has a world goal, including the land of Palestine and Noble Qods [Jerusalem].

Honorable Mr. Hashemi.

I, as one of the disciples of the Imam’s school, consider myself indebted to him and his courageous leadership, and have promised myself to go into battle at the side of his thought and protecting that enormously valuable Islamic and anti-absolutist inheritance until the end of my life. What concern is it that my office and that of Mehdi Karoubi’s party is sealed and his newspaper is closed and even his comrades are in prison for the sake of the Islamic Republican system? What concern is it that vicious newspapers called Iran or Vatan or Zamin or Keyhan attack me and the public treasure is spent on their abuse and they are paid for this and the national media is turned into a partisan and political armory against me and even the sacred Friday prayers are used for their political ends, turned into a center to attack the late Imam’s comrades. But I consider suffering all these catastrophes sweet, recalling what fateful and consuming and terrible storms arose during those hard times before and after the revolution and how the unparalleled will of the Imam and the iron firmness of his comrades turned the cruelty of SAVAK and Pahlavi’s henchmen into the delight of blood triumphing over the sword and the victory of truth over falsehood. My lot is so sweet because of this victory that the bitterness of certain passing disasters has not and will not have an effect on me. I well know that you, too, experienced all those disasters and hardships riding into battle at the side of His Eminence the Imam and, as opposed to certain others, you know that the Islamic Republican system is based on extremely valuable capital and much courage. You served this system for thirty years and know what disasters and stages full of danger this system passed in the struggle with eclecticist and apostate groups and what a price was paid to uphold the Islamic system and establish a republican government. Alas, though, what have we accomplished with all this courage and thirst for justice and confrontation with absolutism? Where have we come?

I see that [Assembly of] Experts convened and you not only did not bring yourself to utter a word of criticism of the conditions governing the country or make any criticisms in accordance with your duties, but more curiously yet, you were absent at the closing of the session despite the importance that it had in such perilous times. I asked myself, is this the same Akbar Hashemi with that spirit which we saw in him before and after the revolution? I recall how you … courageously raised issues even in the Imam’s presence whenever you saw it as necessary, even if they went counter to the Imam’s perspective. I recall a meeting in which we were in His Eminence the Imam’s presence and he related his will and testament to us and asked our opinions and all spoke in favor of it, but you had something to say and did not hide it, but spoke out, and the Imam, too, agreed with the grandeur of your speech and acted in accord.

Honorable Mr. Hashemi.

You have been placed by the vote of the people and their representatives in the Assembly of Experts at the head of an institution which is the most sensitive and most important institution in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Constitution. It is an institution which, according to Article 108 of the Constitution, is the architect and supervisor over the heights of power over the Iranian governmental structure and is responsible for the election and appointment of the Supreme Leader and supervising his actions and the organizations under him. No one gave this right and power to this Assembly who wants to take it back from it, nor is it a deposit which can be taken from this Assembly at will. The right of that Assembly to elect and supervise and investigate the Supreme Leadership is derived from the Constitution and embodies the Iranian nation’s will. This Assembly enjoys such prestige that no institution has the right to legislate with respect to it and its members have the right to determine for themselves the conditions under which it will work and supervise. A meeting of the [Assembly of] Experts with such a position monopolized by an individual has been convened under such current circumstances and my question to you as president of this Assembly is, has this Assembly acted in accordance with its duties during this session? Do these introductory speeches and the report and declaration which was issued truly answer to today’s Iran’s questions and doubts? If even the honorable Ayatollah Dastgheib, for all his shining past and profound popular position, had spoken out of concern for the people during that session, they would have treated him in such a fashion and there would have been talk about the need to expel and remove and punish him so that, as it were, he could say nothing in that session but flattery and exaltation, and no expert has the right to criticize the current situation in the country, and the mouth of that expert who has passed the Seven Trials of the Guardian Council and could find his way into the Assembly of Experts had to be filled with dust lest he speak with anything but flattery and praise of the existing conditions! Truly, where are we headed? And if it has been decided that the sacred goal we all treasured in the struggle against absolutism and imperialism was to arrive at such a point, where was there need for the Assembly of Experts? If it were decided that in the Assembly of Experts, no expert was to speak except in support, would it not have been better for its annual session not to be held? Truly, where was the need for spending from the public treasury and having a building and an office and staff and all these expenses? Would it not have been better to such an Assembly to have been convened if, God forbid, something were to happen to the Supreme Leader?

This session of the Assembly of Experts was held and it was hoped that the people’s representatives in that Assembly would closely examine what happened on the day of the June 12 elections and the crises which arose both before and after them. But I never expected that during this session the people’s experts would have called the crisis plaguing the country a fitna and in order to clean the problem’s appearances, hide their head in the snow. Truly Your Eminence, who saw the volcano of the people’s rage ignite before the elections and stated this publicly, went along with calling this volcano waves of fitna and so quietly overlooked the country’s perilous conditions. I am amazed about how the Constitution, that valuable heritage of the Imam, bought by the martyrs’ blood and fruit of the efforts and firmness of the revolution’s allies, and one of its most genuine bases, that very Assembly of Experts, are being treated! The grandeur of this Assembly and its position which it could have had in the protection and well-being of the Islamic Republican system and winning the people’s rights have suffered such a fate as this!

Honorable President of the Assembly of Experts.

If the Imam had thought that this Assembly would have been a means to strengthen the Supreme Leader’s position, he did not think it was only expressions of appreciation and support for the good which had been done, but criticisms and objections about acts through acting on and performing its duty to supervise. Unfortunately, though, the position of this Assembly has reached such state during these last years that its representatives in past times such as the Grand Ayatollahs (God’s mercy be upon them!) [Ayatollah Hajj Sadeq] Ehsanbakhsh,¹ [Ayatollah Gholam-Hosein] Jami,² Abayi-Khorasani,³ [Hojjat ol-Eslam Sadeq] Khalkhali, and Ayatollah Abbasifar,⁴ have been trampled and the blade of supervision has been put to their necks and no one utters a word about what sort of disaster this is which has befallen the nation’s experts of this system or what crime they have committed to deserve being ignored. It is a result of this silence that today, some dare to raise an outcry about expelling and removing any representative from whom a word which displeases them is spoken. They do not realize that such repression and harshness, and this concerning a representative of the Assembly of Experts, is inexcusable for any sensible person. How can one excuse before the people the stifling of a member of the Assembly of Experts, upon whom a serious duty has been placed, simply because he had said something which displeased some? This rooster’s tail⁵ is not something which one can easily hide. The Supreme Leader must also go into action and stand up against this disrespect shown to a representative of the Assembly of Experts and prevent it. Truly, how can an Assembly, a member of which can be so commonly and easily humiliated, make the appropriate and necessary decisions for this country and nation in such difficult times and days which may we never see?

Honorable Mr. Hashemi.

What is your answer to people who are asking about the duties of the Assembly presided over by you under such circumstances? If the Assembly of Experts had given so much as a passing glance during its meeting to what has befallen this country these past four years, could it not have found much better grounds for the origins of the crisis which afflicts the country—what you have called a fitna. You in your speeches both before and after the elections have repeatedly referred to the economic crises and the collapse of the plan in the country and the deviation from it. But should not the discussion of these crises have been raised somewhere in the Assembly of Experts? Is it not your duty in the Assembly of Experts to examine what is called privatization and the execution of Article 44 of the Constitution and the institutions under the Supreme Leader’s supervision such as the Revolutionary Guards and the Staff for the Implementation of the Imam’s Command (which was given, according to the Imam’s command, to Your Servant and Ayatollah Hasan Sane’i, and in which it was decided that in at most two years, all properties’ seizure or release or, upon careful consideration, in the event that it was illegitimate, expropriation be determined and that this Staff should complete its task; a Staff of which even the dear grandson of the Imam repeatedly complained and requested that if it not be closed down, or at least that the word “Imam” should be removed from its title) would do in a half hour in its own name the work of a ministry and create yet another epic in the name of privatization to continue and complete the epic of the recent presidential elections? Truly, how much has the unplanned foreign policy, which has led to our systems enfeeblement in the international community, been discussed in this session? Are the social problems which plague the country and the securitizing of society’s political atmosphere in society, the universities, and different centers of the country of absolutely no importance, since the members of this Assembly paid no attention to them? Truly, how much have you investigated the activity of some of the organizations under the Supreme Leader’s purview, whose higher supervision over them is your responsibility, in the Assembly of Experts? Are you unaware of what is happening in our so-called national media and the catastrophe which this media’s pundits have wrought? Was there any discussion about why three of the candidates who allegedly lost in the recent pseudo-elections were put on the shelf and their supporters were thrown into solitary confinement and that they could only contact this national media from their solitary confinement cells, and even this to broadcast confessions, and that the gates to the media are only open, therefore, for the allegedly victorious candidate and the honorable Prosecutor General for them to come and make their biased speeches against the other candidates and go? Were you not aware of this issue? You were, and if there was nothing said about it in this session, does this not mean that the spirit of the thirst for justice and revolutionary courage has vanished from our midst and evaporated? And now, truly, what is your answer to those who claim that this Assembly has forgotten its supervisory mission and has been turned into an ineffectual and propagandistic institution? Would it not have been fitting for the members of this Assembly to have invited the three candidates who protested against the results of the elections, all of whom were of the wealth and service to this system, and heard them out and after this hasten to issue their statement?

Honorable Mr. Hashemi.

I consider it my duty to recall to you and others some of His Eminence the Imam’s explanations about the Assembly of Experts’ position, when he declared, “Now you, oh religious jurists [‘’faqih’’s] of the Assembly of Experts, the elect of that nation oppressed throughout the history of the monarchy and its tyranny, kindly accept your responsibility, which is above all other responsibilities, and set to work, for the fate of Islam and the toiling and martyr-providing and suffering nation is at stake. Let history and future generations judge you and the nation and God’s great Household of the Prophet observe your votes and deeds. “May God be at your back and your aid.” [In Arabic] The slightest carelessness or lapse or the slightest selfish act or, God forbid, pursuit of ones lusts which could pervert a noble deed, will cause a catastrophe of historical proportions.” And truly, what relation is there between the current work of this Assembly and what the Imam said about its position and the control which the Constitution and its authors bestowed upon it and its representatives in accordance with the people’s will? How can it be denied that such an important Assembly has been turned into an ineffectual institution in such a perilous time. I, Mehdi Karoubi, have written this letter to you and have raised these issues with you as a reminder, acting in accordance with my conscience before the late Imam, the revolution, and the noble people of Iran and so that I might show that what has befallen this Assembly is neither in the interests of the system nor in the interests of the people, neither does it secure the republicanism and Islam for which 98% of the people voted in Farvardin 1358.

Peace be upon you and God’s mercy and blessings

Mehdi Karoubi

6 Mehr 1388 (September 28, 2009)

Notes:
¹ A student of two of the most prominent religious families, Alam ol-Hoda and Bahr ol-Olum, he also studied psychology and secular jurisprudence. During the revolution, he was arrested and sent to Tehran for his agitation. After the revolution, he became the head of the Imam’s Committee (a vigilante force which attacked the leftist and rightist opponents of the Islamic regime), but was forced to leave Gilan in early 1980 for Tehran after his home was subject to frequent attacks by the left. He was dispatched to South Asia to purge the Iranian embassies and consulates there. He then became the Imam’s representative and Friday Imam in Rasht. In the spring of 1983, he was subject to an assassination attempt, after which he needed to undergo surgery fourteen times. He was elected to the Assembly of Experts in 1989. He passed away in June 2001. http://r-dehgani.blogfa.com/post-8.aspx
² Best known for his courage in staying in Abadan as Friday Imam when it was cut off and under intense bombardment by the Iraqis, where he kept up the people’s morale by continuing to carry on his functions as Friday Imam. In the eulogy for his recent death (January 2009), he was said to have been active in the Islamic opposition to the Shah since the 1963 revolt in Qom. http://www.magiran.com/npview.asp?ID=1777514
³ A student of Ayatollah Khomeini, a representative on the Assembly of Experts during its first period from Khorasan, a representative of the Imam in the Qom Missionary Office, temporary Friday Imam of Mashhad, elected to the Majlis during its sixth session, arrested and exiled repeatedly under the Shah. http://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF_%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C_%D8%AE%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C and http://www.tebyan.net/social/sevencontinents/touringiran/undergroundwatertanks_bathes/2007/3/4/37699.html
⁴ Participated in the elections to the Assembly of Experts elections in 2008 with the encouragement of Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Karoubi. http://mosharekateilam.blogfa.com/post-102.aspx
⁵ From a Persian folk-saying about a chicken thief who steals a rooster and is discovered when its tail protrudes from under his coat.

The Latest from Iran (28 September): Signals of Power

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Non-Proliferation and “Iran’s Nukes”: Chris Emery on Al Jazeera English
Latest Iran Video: The Universities Protest (28 September)
NEW Translating Iran: The New Site for Latest Documents

Iran: English Text of Dastgheib Letter to Assembly of Experts (22 September)
The Latest from Iran (27 September): Is There a Compromise Brewing?

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1940 GMT: Pedestrian offers some additional information on the events at the University of Tehran today. Contrary to our earlier report (0940 GMT), Minister of Science and Technology Kamran Daneshjoo was present. However, as Pedestrian notes from photos of the gathering, the crowd was sparse with almost no students in the audience.

1640 GMT: Getting Serious with Law-Breakers. Two stories showing the Government's firm and not-in-any-way-nervous response to protest. Drivers who honk their car horns during protests have been warned that they may be summoned to court. Fans attending the biggest match in Iranian league football, the Tehran derby between Esteglhal and Persepolis, should expect special security measures (which, of course, are in no way connected with recent Green Wave protests at football matches).

1635 GMT: Credit to the BBC. Earlier today we were less than charitable about "mainstream" media who did not seem to notice that demonstrations were occurring at Tehran University. The BBC's main site has posted a story with video.

1630 GMT: HomyLafayette has published an excellent overview of the sell-off of the Iranian state telecommunications company, in which a consortium linked to the Revolutionary Guard took a 51 percent stake.

1620 GMT: The Facebook site connected with Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted an extract from his statement today: "Ironically those who feel defeated in this year’s Qods day events were those who benefited the most from it. They found out in the most obvious way that three months of unprecedented violence not only did not have slightest effect on people’s presence, but rather made it more extensive."

Mousavi also made an indirect response to those who questioned his appearance at the rally amidst "pro-Government" demonstrators: "In the last Friday of this year’s Ramadan, I was present among those who some of them were welcoming me with their fists and were wishing my death. I was reviewing their faces as we were participating in the rally and I saw that l love them and that our victory is not something that anyone would be defeated in it."

1610 GMT: The BBC Persian report on the Assembly of Experts plan (1545 GMT) may not mention details but another account does allege that three conditions have been attached to the proposal: 1) no mention of "velvet revolution"; 2) no condemnation of street protests; and 3) no statement of support for the Ahmadinejad Government.

1555 GMT: Excuse of the Day. As long-time readers might recall, Enduring America has a special Swine Flu crisis team. So we were impressed to see the Iranian Government suddenly invoke the virus to close down universities for a week. We are certain that this is an imminent threat, even more imminent than Iran's nuclear programme, so that the closure has nothing to do with today's demonstrations. After all, Government ministers said in July that swine flu might delay the start of the academic year, a statement which was entirely unconnected with the political protests that were occurring at the time.

1545 GMT: The Rafsanjani Plan? BBC Persian reports the statement of Hashemi Rafsanjani that he brought ideas from the Expediency Council to last week's Assembly of Experts meeting for a resolution of the political crisis. Details of the plan were not given.

1525 GMT: It appears that all websites connected with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are now down.

1405 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written another letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani, pressing the former President on how far he and the Assembly of Experts will seek to change the system and its handling of issues including the abuse of detainees (the subject of Karroubi's first letter to Rafsanjani in late July) but also privatisations benefitting the Revolutionary Guards, social questions, and the propaganda of State media.

1350 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a new statement on the "turning point" of the Qods Day demonstrations. He has also argued against further sanctions on Iran, for example, over its nuclear programmes, as the Iranian people have suffered enough under their "coup government".

1225 GMT: Latest news is dominated by what is coming out of Iran on the university protests. Not that anyone in the "mainstream" media is taking a bit of notice.

Indeed, there is a de facto alliance between Iranian state media and its "Western" counterparts to ignore the demonstrations in favour of narrow attention to Missiles, Missiles, Missiles. Fars News' triumphalism or Press TV's headline, "IRGC: We test fired upgraded missile models", can be swapped with CNN's lead story, "Iran fires off long-range missiles in latest test" or the BBC's "Iran tests longest range missiles" or Al Jazeera English's "Iran tests Shahab 3 missile".

0940 GMT: Universities Open, Protests Begin. As one of our readers has noted in Comments, reports are coming in of protests at universities as they begin the new academic year. An account of the demonstrations at the University of Tehran with chants of "Death to the Dictator!" is on-line, and video of the protest at  has been posted. There is a claim of more than 1000 students demonstrating at Daneshkadeh-ye Khabar (News College).

No one from President Ahmadinejad's office was present at the opening ceremony at the University of Tehran, and the Minister of Science was also absent.

0720 GMT: Missile Games. Iranian state media has published the next part of its script, Iran Is Really, Really Tough:

The Islamic Republic of Iran has successfully tested long-range Shahab-3 missile in a military drill dubbed The Great Prophet IV in a bid to bolster its defense capabilities, Press TV has learned....Shahab-3 missiles are said to have a range of 1,300 to 2,000 kilometers.

"Western" media will now take the stage to say, "Iran is Going to Kill Israel" (filling in the name of the country, which is not mentioned in the Press TV newsflash). Israeli leaders will hint darkly that they may now have to pursue military action,  and everybody will be very, very flustered as the 1 October talks in Geneva turn from engagement into showdown.

0635 GMT: Academic Fact of the Day. Yesterday we noted the allegation of the French newspaper Liberation that the Iranian Minister of Transport, Hamid Behbahani, plagiarised from French, Canadian, and Chinese scholars in a 2006 article. An EA reader adds, from the same article, that Behbahani was the Ph.D. thesis director of....Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

0615 GMT: And let's also pay tribute to Pedestrian for this item about Hojatoleslam Dehnavi on Iranian state television on the threat of “prank calls”, warning “housewives not to get emotionally attached to the callers":

Married women shouldn’t start talking, because before long, a longing develops. One housewife told me how she gets flustered if the caller does not call for one day. One other told me to find a way to pull her from this sinkhole of corruption she’s gotten herself into. These are married women after all, with husbands. Save yourselves from this sinkhole of corruption. What will you do with your conscience?

So, to elevate this serious discussion readers, what's your favourite prank call that, of course, does not threaten innoncent housewives? (I favour, "Do you keep Prince Albert in a can?", but I don't think that translates into Farsi.)

0600 GMT: Pedestrian has more --- much more --- on Javad Larijani's assault on the Green movement (0445 GMT).

Larijani not only linked the opposition to the Muhajedin-e-Khalq (MKO), with its 30-year campaign to overthrow the Iranian Government, he directly equated Mir Hossein Mousavi with Masoud Rajavi, the long-time head of the MKO: “Mousavi lost a good future in politics. He could have remained a great figure, but...[his] betrayal of the revolution is at one with Rajavi’s.” Larijani also launched a furious verbal assault on Seyed Hassan Khomenei, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomenei: “It is very inappropriate for the Imam’s family to support a certain political faction that is being applauded by traitors and zionists.”

Perhaps most intriguing, however, is an apparent attempt by Larijani to split the opposition by refraining from an attack on Mehdi Karroubi: “Karoubi is a pleasant man and considering his influential role in the revolution, we shouldn’t be too hard on him.”

0445 GMT: While international attention is almost exclusively on the Iranian nuclear programme, with the construction of the second enrichment facility near Qom, the internal power politics are far more significant for the fate of the Ahmadinejad Government.

We've published the text of a letter by Ayatollah Dastgheib, which highlights the intense debate within the Assembly of Experts over the future of the Islamic Republic and the space that should be given to the Green opposition. Meanwhile, Mohammad Javad Larijani, the head of the Judiciary's Human Rights Division (and the brother of the Speaker of the Parliament and the head of Judiciary), has tied the Green Wave not only to Israel but to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, which has challenged the Islamic Republic for 30 years with assassinations, bombings, and sabotage: "“Mousavi was guilty of a great sin after the revolution and launched the reformist faction in the direction of protesting the system....If they had kept themselves from being angry after the elections, they would have seen that many of the Hypocrites [People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran, the political wing of Mujahedin-e-Khalq] and Zionists were applauding their activities.”

Fars News chooses, however, to avoid the internal disputes in favour of the Iranian challenge to the world on its military programmes. It upholds the Revolutionary Guard's praise for the "very high precision" of the missiles that Iran has test-fired in military exercises.

Iran: English Text of Dastgheib Letter to Assembly of Experts (22 September)

The Latest from Iran (27 September): Is There a Compromise Brewing?

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It is slowly becoming clear that last week's Assembly of Experts meeting was the setting for an unprecedented level of dispute and politics. By the end of the deliberations, Ayatollah Ka'abi was circulating a petition for the expulsion of Ayatollah Dastgheib, as Hashemi Rafsanjani tactfully absented himself.

This is the Dastgheib letter (translation by Khordaad 88) demanding the Assembly take over the administration of the Constitution, criticising the suppression of dissent by the regime, and calling for an invitation to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami to address the clerics:

In the name of the Great God,

To Honorable members of the Assembly of Experts of Supreme Leadership

May I recall several points; I hope that they would be beneficial.

1) Notes on the constitution: We are all aware that our constitution has no contradiction with Quran and the [Islamic] tradition. It is devised by the prominent clerics and the right intellectuals who have had the constitution considered by the Imam of nation (may love and mercy of God be upon him.)

But who is the guardian of this constitution? Can anybody other than the experts assume this role? Who is responsible for investigating devastations from the constitutions and who should be hold responsible for such deviations? Only the Experts can assume that role. But now why is it that when it becomes necessary to meet so that the experts could investigate deviancies from the constitution, the experts either find themselves incapable to meet or do not meet at all; even the president of the assembly who has been elected with more than 50 votes (out of 80) could not call for a meeting. Is not this just a complete ignorance on part of the Guardian Council towards the basic fundamentals of the constitution? Including the way members of the Guardian council are selected? An issue that I have suggested that the confirmations from two prominent scholars of Qom should be enough [for the selection for the members of the council] but not body paid attention. It would have been great if the honorable Ayatollah Rafsanjani had followed up so that today we wouldn’t have this problem and so many questions and concerns wouldn’t have been left without sufficient answers. People are aware that the fundamentals of Guardianship of the Islamic Juror [velayat-e-faqih] are in the constitution and they agree with it. If the constitution in not acted upon however, the fundamentals, in articles 5 and 110, will not be acted upon either.

2) Issue of desecrating Imam (Khomeini’s) loyal supporters who have put their wealth, dignities and lives for the continuation of the Islamic Republic for years: This desecration started four years ago until recently when IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran broadcast – state TV.) Prominent figures like Ayatollah Rafsanjani , Hojataleslami Karoubi, and the sires Mr. Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi have been berated so significantly that cries of friends of the revolution and laughter of its enemies have been heard all over. Is the drama that unfolded legal? Was it based on constitution and derived from it? If no, why did all the Experts [here] kept their silence? Is it enough to sit down and grieve?

3) Why don’t we see the suspicious hands of Hojattieh [a Shia organisation formed in 1953 opposing the Baha'i religion, Sunni Islam, and the system of velayat-e-faqih] that the great Imam saw it as a threat to the revolution – behind the scenes? Who have jumped over the three branches of power, the parliament, the judiciary and the executive?

Why doesn’t any one take responsibility for all those illegalities? Why is it that the call for justice is answered with the military forces? Is this anything other than the existence of foreigners behind the scenes?

We had great religious scholars like Sheikh Morteza Ansari, Mirza Shirazi, Seyedna-Al-Esfahani, Seyedna-Al-Yazdi and the like. None of them ever thought to devastate the society so that they can provide the context for the Coming [of Imam Mahdi].

4) What is this situation that has overcome our society, and even the parliament? Whenever anyone of an opinion, a Marja, or a scholar makes a criticism, there some that, in support of a specific group, prepare themselves to remove that person from the scenes. All just so that some could be relieved and satisfied.

5) The Experts are responsible for protecting the Islamic ordinances and the belief of people in Quran and the tradition of the prophet (May peace be upon him) and his immaculate kin. This important responsibility is not fulfilled in the current events and unfortunately the efforts of the Islamic scholars have decreased.

6) In the end, I would like to say that it is still not late to ask from this assembly and the honorable speaker to invite Mr. Mousavi, Mr. Khatami and Mr. Karoubi to say what they want to say. Do not assume that everything has ended. People have faith in you.

In other words, concealing the distrust of some part of the society and neglecting them is unfair; for instance, the objection of the Islamic scholars and professors of universities and the rest. It is important to lessen this distrust to a minimum. Such that, if it is not possible to invite Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi to this assembly the State TV invites them so that they would express their objections. If that is not possible either, they can do so through the Assembly of Expert’s website. So that the members of the Assembly can express their opinions on whether there has been a breach of the Constitution or not.

Seyed Ali-Mohamad Dastgheib
September 22, 2009

The Latest from Iran (26 September): The False Flag of the Nuke Issue

NEW Iran: The "Die Zeit" Article on Opposition and Change
NEW Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Interview on CNN’s Larry King
Iran's Nuclear Programme: The US State Department Line
Video: Ahmadinejad Interview with Time Magazine
Transcript: Obama and Sarkozy Statements on Iran Nuclear Programme
Iran: Obama’s “Get-Tough” Move for Engagement
Iran: Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and the Multi-Sided Chess Match
The Latest from Iran (25 September): The Nuclear Distraction

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2140 GMT: We've now posted an English translation of the Die Zeit article, with its explosive rumours of significant change in the Iranian system.

2005 GMT: Rouydad carries an explosive story, from an inside source, that the Ministry of Guidance and Culture has created a five-person committee to create and spread disinformation, including the claim of a meeting between billionaire George Soros and former President Mohammad Khatami as part of the "velvet revolution". The committee allegedly includes the head of a news agency, an expert on the Internet, a television presenter, and an intelligence official. Millions of dollars are being devoted to the effort.

1955 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has returned from New York with an upbeat political assessment of his "satisfactory" and "successful" stay in the US. He has emphasised the need for change in the management of the United Nations, including the Security Council. No mention, however, of the nuclear issue.

1925 GMT: Report that activist and Mehdi Karroubi supporter Housein Mahdavi has been arrested in Khoramabad.

1730 GMT: Today's "Velvet Revolution" Showcase. It comes courtesy of the Supreme Leader's Advisor For Military Affairs, Major General Seyed Yahiya Rahim Safavi, who said on Saturday, "The (enemies') soft war is aimed at changing the (Iranian nation's) culture, views, values, national beliefs and belief in values. Soft warfare is a complicated type of political, cultural, information operations launched by the world powers to create favorable changes in the target countries."

1715 GMT: The Wall Street Journal, snarling for a confrontation with Iran, inadvertently exposes the weakness in the dramatic presentation of the second enrichment facility:

"Let's also not forget the boost Iran got in late 2007, when a U.S. national intelligence estimate concluded that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and kept it frozen. The U.S. spy agencies reached this dubious conclusion while apparently knowing about the site near Qom."

Probably for the chest-thumpers at the WSJ is that the conclusion is not dubious at all (see the State Department's defense of it in a separate entry). Even if the second facility had taken in shipments of uranium, which is not alleged even by the US Government, even if high-grade centrifuges had been installed, which is not established, even if those centrifuges had begun enriching uranium, which is not claimed anywhere, that would not establish a direct link with a resumed nuclear weapons program. It would merely establish that Iran now had some quantity of enriched uranium which might or might not be for military rather than civilian purposes.

However, the WSJ's railing do not have to be logical to show the problems for the Obama Administration's strategy. Opponents will now claim that the 2nd enrichment facility shows that all intelligence assessments from 2007 must be thrown out and will put by default the faith-based assertion that Iran is hell-bent on the Bomb and beyond diplomacy.

1650 GMT: The Institute for Science and International Security has posted images "of two possible locations of the gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility under construction near Qom, Iran. Both are tunnel facilities located within military compounds approximately 30-40 kilometers away."

1620 GMT: Just to follow up on the biggest of rumours (see 1400 GMT) for change in the Iranian system, with the five-person committee to replace the Supreme Leader and the replacement of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with Tehran Mayor Qalibaf. I've read the Die Zeit piece, and it reads like rumour, Chinese whispers, and wishful thinking rather than hard information on any plan from Hashemi Rafsanjani or another source.

1600 GMT: The Grand Rafsanjani Plan? While the details of Hashemi Rafsanjani's purported political compromise are in the category of rumour, its existence is verified by the number of politicians and clerics asking for its consideration. Reformist MP Darius Ghanbari has called for "more efforts...to achieve...consensus and a calm atmosphere" and said, "Hashemi has all these features to bring the sides together", although "this will be achieved only when conditions that allow the rebuilding of trust to eliminate extremism and hatred." Another MP has called on Parliament's National Security Commission to act on the lines set out by Rafsanjani's 14 July Friday Prayer speech as the "best solution for an exit from the current situation".

1445 GMT: Not-So-Dramatic Breaking News. Iran's chief official for the nuclear programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, says Tehran will allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the second uranium enrichment facility.

Look for the media to play this up as an important development. It's not. The logical strategy for Iran is to draw out the process of negotiation over access, appearing to be receptive to international demands for inspection while defending sovereignty and political position. That's why Salehi "didn't specify when inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency could visit the site" and said "the timing will be worked out with the U.N. watchdog".

1410 GMT: The Battle Among the Experts. Ayande News Agency has revealed the bitter division in the Assembly of Experts. Hussein Ka'abi criticised Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, who has been prominent in his condemnation of the "illegitimate" Ahmadinejad Government and the brutal suppression of post-election dissent, and started a petition amongst the members of the Assembly for Dastgheib's dismissal. It is claimed that the Supreme Leader rejected the petition.

1405 GMT: Political activist Maysam Roudak was detained on Tuesday. She was previously arrested in September 2007, charged with acting against national security, and then bailed for $50,000.

1400 GMT: Noting the Even More Intriguing Rumour. This morning (0455 GMT) we wrote about the unconfirmed story that Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to bring a political resolution through the intervention of the Expediency Council, which he chairs.

Even that pales, however, before the stunning claims in the German Die Zeit. The scenario is that a new system of "Supreme Leaders" with set terms would replace the current overall Supreme Leader with office for life and, more specifically, that the current Mayor of Tehran, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, would replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President.

We're looking for the original German article, but a Farsi summary is available via Deutsche Welle.

0930 GMT: Nonsense and War Talk. The "analysis" of the Iran in many of today's newspapers is simply awful. The Guardian of London's "Q and A Guide" bluntly informs, "[This] shows Iran has not been telling the truth about its nuclear activities," omitting little points such as Tehran's declaration to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday and the differing interpretations of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The journalist, Ian Black, blithely assures, "It seems unlikely that a revelation of such importance would have been made without rigorous checking of sources." Which sounds good unless you realise that Black's next paragraph, "It is known that two years ago the US managed to penetrate Iranian computer systems," refers to the highly suspect American claim of a magic Iranian laptop, supposedly obtained from a defector, which has yet to be seen by the IAEA.

All of this might be harmless if ludicrous, were it not for the inconvenience that it aids and abets talk of War, War, War. In The Wall Street Journal, Anthony Cordesman, exalted by the US media as a top military expert, explains, "Israel must consider not just whether to proceed with a strike against Iran—but how", and kindly offers his "Iran Attack Plan". And the BBC's flagship radio programme, Today, having just heard from the British Foreign Minister, David Miliband, that diplomacy must be pursued, immediately turned to Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who declared, well, no, the military option should be prepared.

0505 GMT: The Iranian (State) Line. Press TV frames President Ahmadinejad's political strategy, which is to downplay any dispute and offer on the surface an accommodation over the second enrichment facility: "Ahmadinejad: 2nd nuclear site open for inspection". It summarises the President's New York press conference, which was delayed yesterday, and features his stance that Iran is within the law (which we picked up in Friday updates): "According to the IAEA rules, countries must inform the Agency 6 months ahead of the gas injection in their uranium enrichment plants. We have done it 18 months ahead and this should be appreciated not condemned."

0455 GMT: And, if you're not caught up with the "secret nuclear plant", what are the internal developments in Iran? To be honest, in the last 48 hours, all parties have caught breath and assessed their positions. The most intriguing possibility is that Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to seize the initiative by setting up the Expediency Council as the proposer and arbiter of a political settlement. The Council is a different body from the clerical Assembly of Experts, which Rafsanjani also heads: its official function in the Iranian system is to rule in disputes between the Parliament and the Guardian Council, but it works primarily as an advisory body to the Supreme Leader.

At this point, the story is still rumour, but it is prominent in Internet chatter. Our readers offer a useful introduction in their comments on yesterday's updates.

0420 GMT: A "false flag" ship is one that disguises its true origin by sailing under the colours of another country. The parallel for Iran today is a near-hysterical situation in which an issue far removed from the critical questions of the post-election conflict suddenly becomes the primary, and even the sole, criterion by which Tehran is judged.

The "Western" media run headlong, escorted and often led by a Government agency, towards a finish line of the most dramatic and damning tale. The Times of London turns itself into Boys' Own Intelligence Journal, "How secrecy over Iran's Qom nuclear facility was finally blown away".

The New York Times gets closer to the immediate politics in its opening paragraph, "On Tuesday evening in New York, top officials of the world nuclear watchdog agency approached two of President Obama’s senior advisers to deliver the news: Iran had just sent a cryptic letter describing a small “pilot” nuclear facility that the country had never before declared." Then, however, it takes the US Government's bait, substituting supposed anguish and hurt for Washington's balancing of "engagement" and pressure on Tehran (see Chris Emery's analysis, which is far beyond anything in mainstream media this morning), "The Americans were surprised by the letter, but they were angry about what it did not say. American intelligence had come across the hidden tunnel complex years earlier, and the advisers believed the situation was far more ominous than the Iranians were letting on."

CNN, meanwhile, hits a new low in its spiralling coverage of Iran, falling into the Iranian President's own public-relations campaign by putting him on The Larry King Show, which usually devotes itself to interviewing Hollywood celebrities, participants in headline crime stories, or anyone loosely connected with Michael Jackson. Ahmadinejad's far-from-stunning revelation? ""We simply didn't expect President Obama to say something that was baseless."

None of this hyperbole and alarm, fuelled by the US Government's need to put pressure on Tehran before talks begin in Geneva on 1 October, comes close to the complexity of the politics on the uranium enrichment facility near Qom. None of it appreciates what an EA correspondent points out:

Let's hold our horses on this one. The International Atomic Energy Agency has to certify that the plant is not new and that Iran has been working in it for years. Right now there is complete discordance between the Iranian and Western versions of events on this, but both curiously point out to one key factor: no enrichment is happening right now in the Qom installation, and construction is still in progress.

But all of the hyperbole and alarm replaces any consideration of and even attention to the internal developments in Iran.