Wednesday
Sep302009
UPDATED Iran: So What's This "National Unity Plan"?
Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 16:56
The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?
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UPDATE 1800 GMT: A reader usefully interjects, "I would like to just remind you that "The Unity Plan' is not from Rafsanjani and it is from 'Pro-Government people seeking truce.'"
It's a fair point, but the reason that this Plan was linked to Rafsanjani was because of widespread chatter, some of it fuelled by Rafsanjani allies, that the former President was the driving force behind the initiative for political reconciliation. Mehdi Karroubi's letter, published in a separate entry, also works from that assumption.
The overriding point is that we don't know Rafsanjani's role in this plan.
UPDATE 1650 GMT: My apologies for a slip-up in the previous entry. There are only eight names listed for the 9-member committee. That is because the 9th spot is for a representative of "political opposition (Mousavi)"
UPDATE 0650 GMT: The names of the proposed nine members of the top Committee in the "draft" of the Plan: Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani (“hard-line” cleric), Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi (former head of Judiciary), Ali Akbar Velayati (former Foreign Minister), Aboutorabi Fard (Deputy Parliament Speaker), Mahmoud Doai (Head of Etalaat News and former Ambassador to Iraq), Hassan Rohani (Rafsanjani stalwart), Masih Mohajeri (editor of Jomhuri Eslami newspaper), Habibollah Asgharowladi (leader of the Motalefeh Party).
It is claimed that the "draft" was written by Habibollah Asgaroladi, M.Mirsalim, M.Bahonar (Deputy Parliament Speaker), M.Nabavi, H.Mozafar, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel (former Parliament Speaker).
UPDATE 30 September 0640 GMT: No further political developments but events at Fars News indicate that this was an early draft of a plan which the paper, either through poor journalism or an attempt to cause mischief, initially presented as a final, agreed proposal. After posting and then withdrawing several stories overnight, Fars eventually put up a version which explicitly refers to the Plan --- similar in its provisions to what we set out below --- as a "draft".
URGENT UPDATE 2015 GMT: There have been curious twists in the story. Fars had now modified its story of the document, saying that it is a "draft" from the Expediency Council. There is no date, no stamp, and no signature. (Note: within the last 30 minutes, the modified Fars story has been pulled from the website.)
This would still match up with a narrative, prominent in recent days, that the Expediency Council, chaired by Rafsanjani, had taken the initiative in producing a plan for political resolution to be considered by the Assembly of Experts. Yet, assuming the document is authentic, the story stops there. What happened to it when it was considered by the Assembly? Is the Expediency Council in charge of the process? What role does the Supreme Leader play in this political game?
Yet, the more one goes into the detail of the document, the more tenuous even this scenario becomes. The plan of a 9-person committee overseeing subcommittees to consider issues from electoral fraud to abuse of detainees is cumbersome, to say the least, but the prospects are almost fantastic. Would this complex set of committee and subcommittees dare overturn the Guardian Council's upholding of the original Presidential result or threaten widespread prosecution of security forces or government officials?
Even more striking is the document's deliberate slight of certain political figures. The repeated references to the inclusion of a representative from an "opposition candidate" (singular, not plural) and the equally repetitive naming of Mir Hossein Mousavi could not be clearer in its intent to split the Green opposition. So, if this is a plan for "National Unity", it rests upon a blunt attempt to cause disunity.
Indeed, the snub of Mehdi Karroubi (and, beyond the Green movement, Mohsen Rezaei) is so blatant that the document has a feel of "disinformation". However, if it were a false plan, one would expect it to be disowned very quickly by Mir Hossein Mousavi and, possibly, Rafsanjani. So far neither has spoken.
The other leading possibility is that this is an early draft of a plan floated by someone or some group. But whom? There the trail stops, for now.
What can be said tonight is that a purported plan for political resolution has actually provoked more division. The draft may explain why Karroubi wrote his second letter to Rafsanjani yesterday and why the tone was sharply critical. In effect, "Hashemi, why have you betrayed us?", both with a plan dividing the opposition (arguably co-opting Mousavi into the "establishment") and with the conversion of the Assembly of Experts into a body to close ranks against legitimate protest.
We're working on a full analysis of the National Unity Plan, as printed in Fars News this afternoon, but to be honest, it is so potentially dramatic in its provisions that we need time to work through the dynamics. So here's how our snap analysis unfolded. If you follow the path, you'll probably see that we think there is a convergence of forces which brings Mir Hossein Mousavi into the "acceptable" negotiations and shuts out Mehdi Karroubi. What this means for the Supreme Leader (how much influence has he lost by handing over "resolution" to a Truth Commission?) and President Ahmadinejad (is the Plan/Commission with him or against him?) is far less certain:
1550 GMT: We are working on an analysis of the "National Unity Plan" published in Fars News this afternoon but here's the headline:
The authors, who call themselves the delsoozan ("those whose hearts are aching" over the post-election conflict) have declared, "Let's join hands and fix the nezam (system)." Because of "the rise of some uncertainties in the political arena", the "elders and devotees...after several meetings have decided a plan for national unity that would enable a --- way out of the present situation".
The plan appears to be inclusive in its recommendation for a "national unity committee", with representatives from all parties including one from Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign.
1610 GMT: Sting in the Detail. But, if the National Unity Plan proposes a committee with at least one representative from the Green opposition, it also offers a big-time slap in the face to somebody:
In reality, what was witnessed after the elections was a vast effort and movement of a political entity that was against the legal institutions and pillars of the system. This went as far as the fact that during Qods Day, the sayings of the Imam and the Revolution went under attack by this group.
So was this destructive "political entity" the Green Wave?
1615 GMT: Another Cryptic Passage from the Plan. "Truth seeking commission must put the word 'end' to the current situation in the country."
1619 GMT: And, for what's it worth, an EA correspondent answers the question racing around the Internet, "Is This Rafsanjani's Plan?": "It's a Hashemi-laden letter. You can almost see his fingerprints."
1622 GMT: The Proposed Truth Commission? One representative of the marjas [senior clerics], one representative from Assembly of Experts, one representative from Interior Ministry, one rep from Majlis [Parliament], one representative from Judiciary, one representative from Expediency Council, one representative from Guardian Council, one representative from the "House of Parties", and one representative of the "protesting candidate (Mousavi)".
1628 GMT: So Who Got Left Out of the Plan? Take a look at that Commission membership again. No representative of the "other" defeated Presidential candidates, Mohsen Rezaei and Mehdi Karroubi.
1635 GMT: And while you're getting your heads around Who's In, Who's Out and Why, consider this from an EA correspondent: "The mere acceptance of this Plan by Supreme Leader would be quite something as he would have to implictly recognise that he has not been able and will not be able to cope with the situation alone and so he needs ad hoc help from 'friends and family'."
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
UPDATE 1800 GMT: A reader usefully interjects, "I would like to just remind you that "The Unity Plan' is not from Rafsanjani and it is from 'Pro-Government people seeking truce.'"It's a fair point, but the reason that this Plan was linked to Rafsanjani was because of widespread chatter, some of it fuelled by Rafsanjani allies, that the former President was the driving force behind the initiative for political reconciliation. Mehdi Karroubi's letter, published in a separate entry, also works from that assumption.
The overriding point is that we don't know Rafsanjani's role in this plan.
UPDATE 1650 GMT: My apologies for a slip-up in the previous entry. There are only eight names listed for the 9-member committee. That is because the 9th spot is for a representative of "political opposition (Mousavi)"
UPDATE 0650 GMT: The names of the proposed nine members of the top Committee in the "draft" of the Plan: Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani (“hard-line” cleric), Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi (former head of Judiciary), Ali Akbar Velayati (former Foreign Minister), Aboutorabi Fard (Deputy Parliament Speaker), Mahmoud Doai (Head of Etalaat News and former Ambassador to Iraq), Hassan Rohani (Rafsanjani stalwart), Masih Mohajeri (editor of Jomhuri Eslami newspaper), Habibollah Asgharowladi (leader of the Motalefeh Party).
It is claimed that the "draft" was written by Habibollah Asgaroladi, M.Mirsalim, M.Bahonar (Deputy Parliament Speaker), M.Nabavi, H.Mozafar, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel (former Parliament Speaker).
UPDATE 30 September 0640 GMT: No further political developments but events at Fars News indicate that this was an early draft of a plan which the paper, either through poor journalism or an attempt to cause mischief, initially presented as a final, agreed proposal. After posting and then withdrawing several stories overnight, Fars eventually put up a version which explicitly refers to the Plan --- similar in its provisions to what we set out below --- as a "draft".
URGENT UPDATE 2015 GMT: There have been curious twists in the story. Fars had now modified its story of the document, saying that it is a "draft" from the Expediency Council. There is no date, no stamp, and no signature. (Note: within the last 30 minutes, the modified Fars story has been pulled from the website.)
This would still match up with a narrative, prominent in recent days, that the Expediency Council, chaired by Rafsanjani, had taken the initiative in producing a plan for political resolution to be considered by the Assembly of Experts. Yet, assuming the document is authentic, the story stops there. What happened to it when it was considered by the Assembly? Is the Expediency Council in charge of the process? What role does the Supreme Leader play in this political game?
Yet, the more one goes into the detail of the document, the more tenuous even this scenario becomes. The plan of a 9-person committee overseeing subcommittees to consider issues from electoral fraud to abuse of detainees is cumbersome, to say the least, but the prospects are almost fantastic. Would this complex set of committee and subcommittees dare overturn the Guardian Council's upholding of the original Presidential result or threaten widespread prosecution of security forces or government officials?
Even more striking is the document's deliberate slight of certain political figures. The repeated references to the inclusion of a representative from an "opposition candidate" (singular, not plural) and the equally repetitive naming of Mir Hossein Mousavi could not be clearer in its intent to split the Green opposition. So, if this is a plan for "National Unity", it rests upon a blunt attempt to cause disunity.
Indeed, the snub of Mehdi Karroubi (and, beyond the Green movement, Mohsen Rezaei) is so blatant that the document has a feel of "disinformation". However, if it were a false plan, one would expect it to be disowned very quickly by Mir Hossein Mousavi and, possibly, Rafsanjani. So far neither has spoken.
The other leading possibility is that this is an early draft of a plan floated by someone or some group. But whom? There the trail stops, for now.
What can be said tonight is that a purported plan for political resolution has actually provoked more division. The draft may explain why Karroubi wrote his second letter to Rafsanjani yesterday and why the tone was sharply critical. In effect, "Hashemi, why have you betrayed us?", both with a plan dividing the opposition (arguably co-opting Mousavi into the "establishment") and with the conversion of the Assembly of Experts into a body to close ranks against legitimate protest.
We're working on a full analysis of the National Unity Plan, as printed in Fars News this afternoon, but to be honest, it is so potentially dramatic in its provisions that we need time to work through the dynamics. So here's how our snap analysis unfolded. If you follow the path, you'll probably see that we think there is a convergence of forces which brings Mir Hossein Mousavi into the "acceptable" negotiations and shuts out Mehdi Karroubi. What this means for the Supreme Leader (how much influence has he lost by handing over "resolution" to a Truth Commission?) and President Ahmadinejad (is the Plan/Commission with him or against him?) is far less certain:
1550 GMT: We are working on an analysis of the "National Unity Plan" published in Fars News this afternoon but here's the headline:
The authors, who call themselves the delsoozan ("those whose hearts are aching" over the post-election conflict) have declared, "Let's join hands and fix the nezam (system)." Because of "the rise of some uncertainties in the political arena", the "elders and devotees...after several meetings have decided a plan for national unity that would enable a --- way out of the present situation".
The plan appears to be inclusive in its recommendation for a "national unity committee", with representatives from all parties including one from Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign.
1610 GMT: Sting in the Detail. But, if the National Unity Plan proposes a committee with at least one representative from the Green opposition, it also offers a big-time slap in the face to somebody:
In reality, what was witnessed after the elections was a vast effort and movement of a political entity that was against the legal institutions and pillars of the system. This went as far as the fact that during Qods Day, the sayings of the Imam and the Revolution went under attack by this group.
So was this destructive "political entity" the Green Wave?
1615 GMT: Another Cryptic Passage from the Plan. "Truth seeking commission must put the word 'end' to the current situation in the country."
1619 GMT: And, for what's it worth, an EA correspondent answers the question racing around the Internet, "Is This Rafsanjani's Plan?": "It's a Hashemi-laden letter. You can almost see his fingerprints."
1622 GMT: The Proposed Truth Commission? One representative of the marjas [senior clerics], one representative from Assembly of Experts, one representative from Interior Ministry, one rep from Majlis [Parliament], one representative from Judiciary, one representative from Expediency Council, one representative from Guardian Council, one representative from the "House of Parties", and one representative of the "protesting candidate (Mousavi)".
1628 GMT: So Who Got Left Out of the Plan? Take a look at that Commission membership again. No representative of the "other" defeated Presidential candidates, Mohsen Rezaei and Mehdi Karroubi.
1635 GMT: And while you're getting your heads around Who's In, Who's Out and Why, consider this from an EA correspondent: "The mere acceptance of this Plan by Supreme Leader would be quite something as he would have to implictly recognise that he has not been able and will not be able to cope with the situation alone and so he needs ad hoc help from 'friends and family'."
tagged Aboutorabi Fard, Ali Akbar Velayati, Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, Expediency Council, Fars News, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, Habibollah Asgaroladi, Habibollah Asgharowladi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hassan Rohani, Iran, Iran Elecitons 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud Doai, Masih Mohajeri, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Mohsen Rezaei, National Unity Plan in Middle East & Iran
Aboutorabi Fard, Ali Akbar Velayati, Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, Expediency Council, Fars News, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, Habibollah Asgaroladi, Habibollah Asgharowladi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hassan Rohani, Iran, Iran Elecitons 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud Doai, Masih Mohajeri, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Mohsen Rezaei, National Unity Plan in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (62)
First count seems to be:
4 representatives of Reform to 5 representatives of AN / SL alliance. Without details all I can say is:
Marjah will be pro Mousavi / Reform
Expediency council will be pro Rafsanjani
AoE pro Rafsanjani
Mousavi Representative will be pro Mousavi / Reform
againt
Interior Ministry will be pro AN / Pasdaran
Guardian council will be pro SL
Majles will be pro conservative camp / SL
Judiciary will be pro conservative camp / SL
Government representative will be pro AN / Pasdaran
SL will get three cards, Rafsanjani two cards, AN two cards and the Mousavi camp two cards. Lets play poker.
However one sentence before the announced list indicates that this is an example of a composition of the commission.
"The Proposed Truth Commission? One representative of the marjas [senior clerics], one representative from Assembly of Experts, one representative from Interior Ministry, one rep from Majlis [Parliament], one representative from Judiciary, one representative from Expediency Council, one representative from Guardian Council, one representative from the “House of Parties”, and one representative of the 'protesting candidate (Mousavi)'."
I make it seven (7) IRG representatives versus two (2) non-IRG representatives (Marja and Mousavi) . . . .
@ I do agree to a great extent with "WhereIsMyVote" except one - Marja is for me Hashemi not Mousavi.
However there is a wildcard or should I say two;
Judicary and Parlement are very much Larrijani's so it is a guess where they go. Do note that the Larrijanni's are from all sides MARJA family. Their father, their mother side, the wife side it all goes to big shots in Qom.
Don't be surprised if they sell out S.L and go with the Marja's/ Hashemi....
Interesting that:
Both Mousavi facebook page and Fars news has brought up the Iran Contra affair as well as the Robert Mcfarlain case.
All I can say is that Montazari is deeply still upset with Hashemi for this affair that lead to the execution of his adopted son Hashemi (not related to the shark at all) . The simultaneous raising of the issue must be directly related to this commission.
Don't waste your time. No unity plan can save the Islamic Republic regime. The people will not be fooled.
Question to all..can we really consider Rafsanjani in the reform "bucket" or do we really have three or perhaps four buckets here...1)Reform, 2) Pro AN/IRG, 3) Pro Rafsanjani/Establishment and 4) "anti" AN? The basis for this thought is the behavior of many, Rafsanjani, Larijani (x2), etc, who are not necessarily pro reform but can be said to be anti AN and through assumption "anti IRG". I agree with Afshin that the Majlis and Judiciary are the wildcards here but, if I continue with my "buckets" would the Marja rep go with Rafsanjani or the reform group?
Also I think the comment at 1650 GMT is the most relevant of all...will the SL take this as direct challenge to his prior statement, thus his authority or will this be seen as a way to "re-legitimize" himself to the Iranian people?
Agree that the Larijani's are both a bit of a wild card, but their past behavior has been that when push has come to shove, and when the back door concessions to them have been made, they have been firmly behind SL so far. We are just here identifying the opening hands. So lets say they are in the hand of SL, but they are wild cards, that need be tamed and are hard and expensive to play.
The supreme leader is damned if he does and damned if he does not. He can not win easily. This certainly is a challenge to his authority, and if the commission is successful will ultimately st the precedence for his lack of supreness. His very purpose is to be the final word, and the formation of commission means that his final word was not final. However do nothing and the enemies will start to look for a solution without your involvement. At least this way he can try and control the commission, if he allows it to be formed. I see his acceptance of this plan as the best of two hard choices.
Clever move. 'National unity plan' for the purpose of uniting all the broken parts of the current Iran.
oops
There is just one tiny bit which has been left out here: THE NATION
@ Where is my vote
Larrijanis will dance and play to the winners hand
So far they just flirted with the devil.. if need be tommorow they will sleep with him... they have no morals.
At one moment when the pressure on SL is more then the Larrijanis would feel is still within the comfort zone they will drop him like a hot potato.... This might very well be this moment, allthough this is all the talking before the battle.
I remember saying in the S.L analyses of last week that the SL has the least to gain and the most to lose in this game... He is caught between a rock and a hard place and now the walls are closing in...
Like you said he is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't... Either way he loses. I think he will not go for it.. If he does its bye bye S.L as we know today...
To the Author: Delsooz means one who empathizes
Formation of this committee is analogous to making a murderer a juror in his own trial. This corrupt establishment is incapable of looking at itself critically.
The real truth finding committee is made of members of Iranian society, e.g. students, labor unions, merchants (bazaari), academicians, lawyers, human rights activists, industry managers, farmers, mothers and fathers who have suffered great losses, members of the press, etc. That will never happen because this government cannot handle the truth, period.
This is a charade designed by a consummate politician like Rafsanjani who is trying to save an illegitimate government and in return save himself so he does not become Mr. Raft Sanjani (gone Mr. Sanjani). This charade is a disaster for people of Iran and a disaster for the world community. I hope people denounce it.
@ Megan
U seem very much like one that does not live in Iran and the realities of life there. U have the luxary of being able to be idealistic and pursue Justice. The reality of Iran is hat people will take whatever road that leads them to what they want regardless.
@afshin
U not only seem very much like one that does not live in Iran but also Old too :p and with sooooooo historicaly old fashioned intellectual ways of analysing every little thing that's happenin in Iran as if you have no idea about over %70 under 30yo population who don't have the slightest attachment to many of the words of that sort, let alone the concepts in it :)
@ hasty
Actually I was 5 when the revolution happend and I think the world is short selling the level of intelect and understanding of the Iranian youth. They are very much aware of things. Here at EA "Where is My Vote" is a perfect example, he is also in his 30's. Early 30's if I am not mistaken. His analyses I feel are very much spot on and he is much more aware of what is happening in Iran then most Journalists, Experts and news channels are.
@Afshin
Sorry? who's aware of things????
'The reality of Iran is hat people will take whatever road that leads them to what they want regardless.'
Soooo????
@Afshin
Not fair,,,Don't edit the comments, makes me confused :(
@hasty
They understand that u need to be Pragmatic and not an Idealist. Change does not come in a day. U dont go to bed at night and wake up in a democracy. See it as a ladder u go up one by one.
Hashemi is no saint, Nor is Mousavi, Karoubi or even Khatami.. Infact they al have blood on their hands.. but they are at this moment helping the country move one step closer to where the youth of the nation wants it to go.
U can do two things be idealistic about it and say Hashemi is this or that.. or you can be pragmatic and understand that change comes bit by bit.... they are no fools and know he is crook and that his intentions are not pure, he is not noble and in it for him self. But still he is one that suits their needs for now. They are being pragmatic.
@afshin
I'm confused here and sleepy too,,, going to bed. tell me what's what? so are people aware and what ever Megan said which is what I would say and so? or is it all about that game of yours and such or what?
will read it later
@Sorry I always write then read and re-edit.
What I am saying is that in politics and specially in countries like Iran you have to be pragmatic. Hashemi is a crook, a murderer and so on and so forth so is mousavi, Karoubi etc. But right now they are a way forward, people know about their crimes but still feel that this is a price worth paying to get the reforms back on trach and move somewhat closer towards democracy.
@Afshin I am either too sleepy or completely in an agreement with all what you said in 17
I think the problem here is that one of us thinks what people think, and whether they take notice of hashemi or who ever important person in Iran's action is Important. the other think it is not,,, right? or wrong?
@ Hasty.
Sleep tight, sorry for the confusion, I am a bit tired my self, had to wake up at 4AM this morning. Sweet dreams
@Afshin
u too, nighty
Basically Megan is saying that this "UNITY PLAN" is a disaster for Iran and the Iranian people while i think it may be a path to reform, to change and a step towards a more open and democratic Iran.
My response to her was that she is being to idealistic about it while the reality of Iran life is you gotta take what u gotta take to get where u wanna get. And if that means a crook like Hashemi is not brought to justice and instead is given support and power, well thats a price worth paying if that brings change, reform, a more open and a more democratic Iran.
Afshin,
They did that in 1979. How far did that get them? You words remind me of those I heard from my activist friends in 1979 who left their study and returned to Iran to join the movement. I asked how they could support a movement whose leader stood against everything they believed in. They replied, they would take whatever road that leads them to victory and then they chart their own course. They chart their course okay- some to Behest Zahra, some to Prison, and others seem to have vanished with no trace.
Strategy of Kej Daro Mariz (or is it Nariz?) or coping will lead to another lost generation and further demise of what was once a proud nation with rich culture of tolerance. I just hope people or at least great majority of them come to the conclusion that they have had enough and turn their backs to Mullah Khomeini paradise.
I recall a tearful call from a 60 year old woman from Tehran into one of the News organization last June. She said, “We have packed our suitcases and are ready to go home from this long 30 year journey”. I wonder how many share that sentiment.
@Megan
I fully understand what you are saying but there is one big diffrence between now and 79. Back then (Except for the Communists) People were blinded by Islam and Imam's word was devine... Oh how greatly have the people changed... Back then most people were actually cheering for and adoring Khomeini and his Islam and then there was a great minority mostly Communist movement and some democrats etc. These days there is a Majority that is cheering for DEMOCRACY, FREEDOM, REPUBLIC OF IRAN and not the ISLAMIC REPUBLIC. There is now a majority that does not want this goverment, does not want their Strict Islam.
That is a HUGE diffrence. Back then the Minority was being practical and the Majority was blinded now the Majority understands and is just being pragmatic. Change and reform are inevitable.
Afshin
I totally agree with you. people like even Mousavi and Karroubi - they all knew rape and torture happne in prisons. Under Mousavi a lot of opposition were exterminated. TNone of these people are saints, but what they do realiseis that CHANGE needs to happen if IRI is to survive. This is the difference between these people and Khamenei, latter being very hardline and on an Islamic crusade for Palestine. People who voted Mousavi did so not because he's a great guy, but he proved to be their only hope for some change in society. And he knows that this is needed for IRI to survive and gain some sort of international reputation.