The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei's End-of-Ramadan Speech

NEW Iran's Qods Day: A Participant On the Isfahan Marches
NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi for the Nobel Peace Prize?
Iran After Qods Day: What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?
Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day
Iran: Another Qods Day Participant Writes
Latest Iran Video: More from Qods Day (18-19 September)
Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)

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Picture of Day. OK, so Hashemi Rafsanjani showed up in the front row of the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr prayers near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but he doesn't look too thrilled about the President, does he? Captions welcomed.

2000 GMT: The Clerics' Relatives. More on the Saturday release of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri (see 0840 GMT). They each had to post $20,000 bail as did the children of Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi and Ayatollah Nazemzadeh.

1810 GMT: Stand by Your Man. In a move overshadowed by Qods Day, President Ahmadinejad has reconfirmed Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as the head of his Presidential office.

This is far more than an appointment. Given the conservative and principlist opposition that forced Ahmadinejad to withdraw Rahim-Mashai's selection as 1st Vice President, this is a symbol that the President rules within the Establishment. The reconfirmation also comes despite Rahim-Mashai's recent suspension over charges of financial misconduct.

1455 GMT: Speculation of Day - Khamenei-Rafsanjani Deal? Some Twitter-based Iranian activists have come up with the most intriguing analysis of the Khamenei speech and Hashemi Rafsanjani's attendance.

The Supreme Leader's declaration that evidence from confessions in court cannot be used against third parties is an "immunity" for Rafsanjani and his family. (Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi and other Rafsanjani relatives were prominently charged in confessions with political and financial impropriety in the initial Tehran trials.) In exchange for this, Rafsanjani showed his support for Khamenei with his presence in the front row of the audience.

I wouldn't go as far as deal but would see this as a return by the Supreme Leader to his Friday prayer speech of 19 June where he supported the Ahmadinejad election but also praised Rafsanjani and slapped down the President's pre-election allegations of corruption.

1315 GMT: Alternatively, you can fail by ignoring anybody inside Iran except the Supreme Leader. That's the choice of The Times of London, which doesn't seem to realise that the primary target of Khamenei's address was the opposition inside the country rather than "arch-foe Israel, Western powers and foreign media networks".

Thank goodness, Reuters has now put out an article recognising the Supreme Leader's linking of "foreign media" and his internal challengers.

1240 GMT: The "Western" media is on the verge of a major failure in its portrayal of Iran's internal situation. For some reason, Associated Press turned a minor extract from the Supreme Leader's speech, "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity," into the main theme that the regime was retreating from post-election conflict (see 0940 GMT). This soon raced as a headline around the Internet and US broadcast outlets, who use AP as gospel to compensate for their lack of coverage, prepared to run this as a major change in the regime's position.

Only problem is that the Supreme Leader's overall message was one of confrontation with the opposition, bringing him more in line with the approach of President Ahmadinejad. He made his strongest statement in weeks linking protest with the supposed direction of a "velvet revolution" by Israel and the US (see 0950 GMT) and issued a warning --- directed first at Mehdi Karroubi --- about any claims of detainee abuse (see 0955 GMT). A glance at Fars News' coverage and that of the Islamic Republic News Agency reveals no reference to the statement regarding trials and an emphasis on the "velvet revolution" theme.

We have been in contact with CNN in the hope that the broadcaster may recognise the danger of reliance on the AP report and will take a closer look at sources that reflect the real significance of Khamenei's message. One of the five lessons of Qods Day for us was "the wanderings of the Supreme Leader"; well, he has now broken his silence and looks to be wandering into line with the Ahmadinejad Government.

1235 GMT: Holding Out. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has continued his defiance of the Supreme Leader's declaration, announcing that Ramadan only ends this evening and that Eid al-Fitr should be on Monday.

1040 GMT: Apart from Khamenei's speech, the buzz is that Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan made prominent appearance at Eid-al-Fitr prayers. An EA correspondent considers: "Seems like Khamenei at the least succeded in persuading them to show up for a - at least at face value - show of unity. However, what Rafsanjani's real aims and intentions are remain a total mystery. My gut feeling is that he is continuing to take part in at least part of the regime's events to provide some sort of a cloak for Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, staving off the chances of them being arrested. Needs to be seen if this will alleviate the dire conditions of those in jail though."

0955 GMT: And it worth be worthwhile to note Khamenei's implicit defense of those within the regime accused of abuses in the post-election crisis: "The media should refrain from publicizing allegations leveled by foreign media against certain individuals in the country accusing them of betrayal and other wrongdoings....This would not be acceptable."

0950 GMT: Defying Friday. The real story of the Khamenei speech is the Supreme Leader's effort to turn back any notion of challenge from the Qods Day demonstrations. He did this by linking the line on Israel/Palestine with the contention that the nation had stood against Western-led troublemakers on Friday.

Qods Day had been a “day of loud and clear shouts” against the “deadly cancer of Zionism...spreading through the invading hands of the occupiers and arrogant powers... which is gnawing into the lives of the Islamic nations”. Then the Supreme Leader, who only a few weeks ago was denying that Iran had been threatened by a "velvet revolution", took aim at the attempt at "velvet revolution":

The enemies tried to undermine the Quds Day rally, but the rally showed that the schemes of the enemies were not effective....In the past few months, Western leaders fell for their media, professional press analysts and radios and televisions and thought they could influence the Iranian nation. But you showed that they were chasing a mirage....This year, more than before, they tried to weaken the Quds Day, but the glorious Quds Day in Tehran showed the whole world the direction in which the revolution and Iran was heading. It showed that their (Western politicians) tricks, spending money and political evilness does not influence the Iranian nation.

0940 GMT: Flight from Friday. When I saw the newsflash, I thought the Supreme Leader was making a signficant effort at compromise: "Iran's Khamenei signals easing in election tension." Turns out, however, that the supposed shift is only that of an Associated Press headline writer who must be unaware of the drama and tension of Qods Day. The Supreme Leader's comment, in a speech marking the end of Ramadan, was simply a vague allusion to a possible easing of the pressure of trials: "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity."

0840 GMT: Report that Mehdi and Ali Montazeri, two of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's grandchildren detained on Monday, were released Saturday.

0745 GMT: It's Not Just Tehran. Maryam at Keeping the Change has posted an overview of the Qods Day marches in Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz, Rasht, and Mashad. We've posted the account of one participant in the Isfahan march in a separate entry.

0630 GMT: It seems we are now in a relatively quiet phase of this crisis. Very little has come out on the Government side since Friday, possibly because Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and close aides are now focused on the President's trip to New York and speech to the United Nations General Assembly, and the oppposition has also chosen to assess the outcome of Qods Day before making its next move. Only Mehdi Karroubi's meeting with medical faculty, featuring his comments that he will press claims in court of detainee abuse the "would make the Shah look good", broke the silence.

Instead, as we noted as the end of last night, the biggest ripple was a dispute, full of symbolism, over whether Ramadan ended with the appearance of the crescent of the moon last night. Senior clerics, countering the Supreme Leader, said no. The national holiday has still been declared of course, and Eid al-Fitr will still be celebrated by many, but it will be interesting to see if the senior clerics' claim resonates with Iranian people.

Comments

[Afshin]

Resistance like the Qods day marches and little challenges like this combined with other small acts of protest are recepie for either a revolution or crimes against the population in such a magnitude that everything we have seen so far would look like child play.

[Dominique]

Yes,
Afshin has always the right word. But for a foreign on-looker as me it is a very comical story. This dramatic turmoil about the Moon is too ridiculous and makes many Tweeters very satiric "How can they seen the Moon, when they can't seen the Green Wave ?", and so on... A few days of recreation after a week of stress ?
Please, excuse my bad English langage from France (!).

[Afshin]

Hi Dominique,

See it this way the S.L has the last word on everything and specially these religious items, when the Marja's challenge the S.L like this they are challenging his authority. So it is a big deal.

-----

Lucas,

What is the old saying, keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Hashemi will stay as along as possible within the circle, not fight everybody but only the Guards. If he boycots everything he is putting him self outside the system. His appearance is saying I am PRO ISLAM, I am PRO IRI. So he is present at Qods day, he is present at eid al fetr and for S. Larrijani's inaugration but he is not present at A.N inaugration. This brings me to another old saying.. CHOOSE YOUR BATTLES.... dont fight the whole world in one go... fight your enemies one by one..

I think Hashemi needs to be present as much as possible in oder to stay with in the establishment but fighting the coup from the inside. There is a pattern in how they are fighting..

- Hashemi is the man inside
- Mousavi is the Green leader
- Khatami the respected cleric with a vision of new islam
- Karoubi the uncontrolable uncompromising figher for justice

Each please a certain group.

[Scott Lucas]

Afshin,

Excellent reading of situation --- I hope you are right that the opposition strategy has been developed to this extent.

S.

[Ramadan not over yet? - Why We]

[...] Old Montazeri! From EA today 20th Sept. The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech | Enduring America [...]

[ﺍﺮﺘﺶ١٨ﺘﯿﺮ - ﺍﺮﺘﺶﺪﺍﻨﺠﺸﻮﯿﺎﻦ ﺪﺍﻨﺸ]

ﺍﺮﺘﺶ١٨ﺘﯿﺮ Attention!!The Goverment and mojtaba khamenei want Ahmadinejad as the Eternal President.We must stop it!

[Peter]

@Afshin

I completely agree with your assessment of Rafsanjani. I'm also hearted by the attack by the Marjas on the SL's religious authority. I think he's made some very bad calls of late and his infallibility bubble needs to be burst. The argument over the last day of Ramadan may seem trivial at first, but it establishes that he's wandered off the path of tradition and creates one more question mark regarding his lack of credentials in the minds of conservatives.

[Observer]

@Afshin

I too, agree with you, have thought this as the weeks passed. Now especially so, the 'arms' of the SOG strategy seem more evident by the day. Each participant steadily stands by a role you describe. The synergy becomes powerful.

How aware do you think SL/AN/IRGC are of the opposition's deck of cards?

[Karroubi summoned to court - W]

[...] For roelassie Please read this recent comment from Afshin (#3) on EA: The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech | Enduring America [...]

[Afshin]

@ Observer

I have no magic Bowl but I think they know this and much more then we do. If a nobody like me can make a guess/ analyses then people like them with all their intelligence must know so much more.

The more I think about it the more clear it is. They are trying to finish this war before the SL dies. Regardless if he is ill or not he cant live forever. He is old and weak.

This because Hashemi has control of the Assembly of expert (they have allready tries 3 times to vote him out and did not succeed) they need to win the war before a new leader is to be elected. The rest seems to be forced to fight rather then wanting to fight.

[Afshin]

Hashemi is saying

Bekhand kesafat bekhand, yak pedari azzat dar biyaram ke mousavi ham barat gerye konne....

[Jashar]

Rafsanjani: "Don't know whats worse! Being forced to sit on the floor despite hemorrhoids or being forced to sit on the floor along with these jackasses!? Both mean pain in my *** for sure!"

[Hamid]

Good discussion, everyone. It's been "death by a thousand cuts" and so far neither party has dealt the other a knock-out, but the regime has suffered most: The SL has lost all moral authority with the majority, people have lost their awe and their fear of the security services and of violence, AN has lost the pretense of a nation unified behind him, and the IRGC has come into the limelights and lost all pretense of being above politics. This is all excellent, and shows a deep fracture within the ruling group. Conversely, I don't see the regime backing off while AN and Khamenei are in power and there are still no obvious signs of a rift within the IRGC. Such rift is, I think, essential to get the militaro-religious complex out of absolute power. The economy could also further hurt the regime, but if the price of oil increases, AN will have plenty of money to throw at problems.
My conclusion: this is a marathon and will go on for a long time, but time definitely works against the regime. We, the popular opposition, just need staying power and small victories along the way to ensure that they're never able to put the genie back in the bottle.

[Hamid]

Oh and one more thing: let's never assume that someone else (Rafsanjani, the marjahs, the US/UK/EU/...) will do the job for us with a magic wand: our destiny is ONLY in our own hands. All these others offer only limited levers that we can shrewdly use tactically.

[Afshin]

@Reply to the 1455 GMT post

If this be the case then it will probably be one where the SL has had to put alot more in then he is getting. This because;

1) He is doing it at a moment of weakness, After the protests, under Marja attacks and before the Assembly of Experts meeting.

2) Not only Hashemi attended but also KHOMEINI and Nateq Nouri were there

This however does not mean the end of war as the S.L is not the main player in this fight (perhaps eventually the main victim but not the main player) that honour belongs to the Guards vs the Clerics.

So this is at best a deal between the S.L and the Clerics which leaves the war between Guards vs Clerics still very much alive.

If the rumours of the pact are true what we can expect in the coming days is what is really intresting now....

[Samuel]

Rafsanjani, old survivor that he is, has basically thrown the Greens under the bus. He flirted with them sure but I think he realizes the Karroubi is an unstable character, Khatami a former reformer trying his hand at overthowing the Revolution and Mousavi a leader with the charisma of cardboard.

The truth is that at the end of the day Rafsanjani is not a bad character. I've long admired his contribution to the revolution, his loyalty to Imam Khomeini, and his courage both against the Shah and the MEK terrorists after the Revolution.

Certainly his pragmatic economic views favoring privatization and free markets whenever possible (similar to China's economic policies over the last two decades) make a lot of sense. As the SL said in June at Friday Prayers they've known each other for over 50 years. Rafsanjani and the SL have been in a lot of the same trences over that half century and if the Ayatollah Khomeini were alive today he would Knock their heads together and tell his two "sons" to get along or next time he would really get rough.

There is absolutely no comparison between Rafsanjani, whatever his faults, and a traitor like Montazeri for example.

Montazeri by the way is becoming a bigger joke every day. He now has to oppose the SL on ever issue no matter what. Inside sources tell me that when the SL declares his fondness for eggplant in the next couple of days Montazeri will release a fatwa outlawing its consumption.

[Samuel]

Afshin,

Again who are the Guards that you keep mentioning? Is it Jafari alone, his deputy, a small group of Generals? What are the intra-group rivalries and tensions within this Guard elite?
In the past the SL has never had a problem replacing the head of the Pasdaran.

In fact the SL replaced Yahya Rahim Safavi with Jafari a mere two years ago. If this is a Guards coup or attempted coup as you keep insisting who is leading it. Coups are almost always led by one leader, such as Nasser in Egypt, who takes personal control.

The discussions here focus to a large degree on the various peronalities, the SL, AN, Rafsanjani, the Larijani brothers, Karroubi the nut etc., etc., Your analysis, however, potrays the Guards as a faceless monolith.

Again your analysis would benefit from the names, backgrounds, ranks, histories, interests of the Guard leadership the you seem to put front and center in the whole struggle.

[Afshin]

You are looking to much at a face. The Guards are no longer just a military unit to protect the Revolution, they are a movement now, a Business empire is perhaps even better, Or perhaps one could even compare them with Charlie Luciano, Mayer Lanski and their evil Mafia Empire. A.N is their political face. The Current top is poluted to the bone all corrupt multi million dollar officials with huge business interests.

They know that if the S.L was to die and a new S.L is selected who may be more hostile towards them they are losing Billions of dollars and may be stripped of all these goodies as well their political influence. Being forced back to their REAL role protectors of the Revolution.

And indeed Hashemi Rafsanjani a very much corrupt man him self would open up Iran more and strip them of their monopoly of goverment contracts, Illegal smuggling and so on.

Perhaps even go back to the Imam's advise of a much harder stance against Hojjatieh and also the exclusion of the Guards from Politics as Imam advised before his death. Guardians Council would then be vetting them from the political arena same as they have been doing with the reformists. And this would be fully within the rules of Iman and the revolution.

That is why I think the Guards will not give up their attack on Hashemi. They want him out before the S.L is dead.

[yseut]

Happily enough for freedom of thought and reflexion based on facts rather
than on biased fanaticism, some journalists do their job and help the
mainstream public to identify -or call back to memory- who's behind press
titles + faceless entities (or Samuel's contempt and assertions for that matter).
It's never perfect (especially for iranian readers one assumes) nor
unquestionnable in terms of analysis , merely documented and helpful

*A memo-portrait of recalcitrant Ay. Montazeri :

http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090921/FOREIGN/709209884/1135

* Some useful reminders about IRGC status and records in IRI's economy/politics

http://www.payvand.com/news/09/sep/1199.html (Iran's Revolutionary Guard Has A Lot To Lose )