The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei's End-of-Ramadan Speech

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Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day
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Latest Iran Video: More from Qods Day (18-19 September)
Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)

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Picture of Day. OK, so Hashemi Rafsanjani showed up in the front row of the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr prayers near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but he doesn't look too thrilled about the President, does he? Captions welcomed.

2000 GMT: The Clerics' Relatives. More on the Saturday release of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri (see 0840 GMT). They each had to post $20,000 bail as did the children of Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi and Ayatollah Nazemzadeh.

1810 GMT: Stand by Your Man. In a move overshadowed by Qods Day, President Ahmadinejad has reconfirmed Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as the head of his Presidential office.

This is far more than an appointment. Given the conservative and principlist opposition that forced Ahmadinejad to withdraw Rahim-Mashai's selection as 1st Vice President, this is a symbol that the President rules within the Establishment. The reconfirmation also comes despite Rahim-Mashai's recent suspension over charges of financial misconduct.

1455 GMT: Speculation of Day - Khamenei-Rafsanjani Deal? Some Twitter-based Iranian activists have come up with the most intriguing analysis of the Khamenei speech and Hashemi Rafsanjani's attendance.

The Supreme Leader's declaration that evidence from confessions in court cannot be used against third parties is an "immunity" for Rafsanjani and his family. (Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi and other Rafsanjani relatives were prominently charged in confessions with political and financial impropriety in the initial Tehran trials.) In exchange for this, Rafsanjani showed his support for Khamenei with his presence in the front row of the audience.

I wouldn't go as far as deal but would see this as a return by the Supreme Leader to his Friday prayer speech of 19 June where he supported the Ahmadinejad election but also praised Rafsanjani and slapped down the President's pre-election allegations of corruption.

1315 GMT: Alternatively, you can fail by ignoring anybody inside Iran except the Supreme Leader. That's the choice of The Times of London, which doesn't seem to realise that the primary target of Khamenei's address was the opposition inside the country rather than "arch-foe Israel, Western powers and foreign media networks".

Thank goodness, Reuters has now put out an article recognising the Supreme Leader's linking of "foreign media" and his internal challengers.

1240 GMT: The "Western" media is on the verge of a major failure in its portrayal of Iran's internal situation. For some reason, Associated Press turned a minor extract from the Supreme Leader's speech, "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity," into the main theme that the regime was retreating from post-election conflict (see 0940 GMT). This soon raced as a headline around the Internet and US broadcast outlets, who use AP as gospel to compensate for their lack of coverage, prepared to run this as a major change in the regime's position.

Only problem is that the Supreme Leader's overall message was one of confrontation with the opposition, bringing him more in line with the approach of President Ahmadinejad. He made his strongest statement in weeks linking protest with the supposed direction of a "velvet revolution" by Israel and the US (see 0950 GMT) and issued a warning --- directed first at Mehdi Karroubi --- about any claims of detainee abuse (see 0955 GMT). A glance at Fars News' coverage and that of the Islamic Republic News Agency reveals no reference to the statement regarding trials and an emphasis on the "velvet revolution" theme.

We have been in contact with CNN in the hope that the broadcaster may recognise the danger of reliance on the AP report and will take a closer look at sources that reflect the real significance of Khamenei's message. One of the five lessons of Qods Day for us was "the wanderings of the Supreme Leader"; well, he has now broken his silence and looks to be wandering into line with the Ahmadinejad Government.

1235 GMT: Holding Out. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has continued his defiance of the Supreme Leader's declaration, announcing that Ramadan only ends this evening and that Eid al-Fitr should be on Monday.

1040 GMT: Apart from Khamenei's speech, the buzz is that Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan made prominent appearance at Eid-al-Fitr prayers. An EA correspondent considers: "Seems like Khamenei at the least succeded in persuading them to show up for a - at least at face value - show of unity. However, what Rafsanjani's real aims and intentions are remain a total mystery. My gut feeling is that he is continuing to take part in at least part of the regime's events to provide some sort of a cloak for Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, staving off the chances of them being arrested. Needs to be seen if this will alleviate the dire conditions of those in jail though."

0955 GMT: And it worth be worthwhile to note Khamenei's implicit defense of those within the regime accused of abuses in the post-election crisis: "The media should refrain from publicizing allegations leveled by foreign media against certain individuals in the country accusing them of betrayal and other wrongdoings....This would not be acceptable."

0950 GMT: Defying Friday. The real story of the Khamenei speech is the Supreme Leader's effort to turn back any notion of challenge from the Qods Day demonstrations. He did this by linking the line on Israel/Palestine with the contention that the nation had stood against Western-led troublemakers on Friday.

Qods Day had been a “day of loud and clear shouts” against the “deadly cancer of Zionism...spreading through the invading hands of the occupiers and arrogant powers... which is gnawing into the lives of the Islamic nations”. Then the Supreme Leader, who only a few weeks ago was denying that Iran had been threatened by a "velvet revolution", took aim at the attempt at "velvet revolution":

The enemies tried to undermine the Quds Day rally, but the rally showed that the schemes of the enemies were not effective....In the past few months, Western leaders fell for their media, professional press analysts and radios and televisions and thought they could influence the Iranian nation. But you showed that they were chasing a mirage....This year, more than before, they tried to weaken the Quds Day, but the glorious Quds Day in Tehran showed the whole world the direction in which the revolution and Iran was heading. It showed that their (Western politicians) tricks, spending money and political evilness does not influence the Iranian nation.

0940 GMT: Flight from Friday. When I saw the newsflash, I thought the Supreme Leader was making a signficant effort at compromise: "Iran's Khamenei signals easing in election tension." Turns out, however, that the supposed shift is only that of an Associated Press headline writer who must be unaware of the drama and tension of Qods Day. The Supreme Leader's comment, in a speech marking the end of Ramadan, was simply a vague allusion to a possible easing of the pressure of trials: "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity."

0840 GMT: Report that Mehdi and Ali Montazeri, two of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's grandchildren detained on Monday, were released Saturday.

0745 GMT: It's Not Just Tehran. Maryam at Keeping the Change has posted an overview of the Qods Day marches in Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz, Rasht, and Mashad. We've posted the account of one participant in the Isfahan march in a separate entry.

0630 GMT: It seems we are now in a relatively quiet phase of this crisis. Very little has come out on the Government side since Friday, possibly because Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and close aides are now focused on the President's trip to New York and speech to the United Nations General Assembly, and the oppposition has also chosen to assess the outcome of Qods Day before making its next move. Only Mehdi Karroubi's meeting with medical faculty, featuring his comments that he will press claims in court of detainee abuse the "would make the Shah look good", broke the silence.

Instead, as we noted as the end of last night, the biggest ripple was a dispute, full of symbolism, over whether Ramadan ended with the appearance of the crescent of the moon last night. Senior clerics, countering the Supreme Leader, said no. The national holiday has still been declared of course, and Eid al-Fitr will still be celebrated by many, but it will be interesting to see if the senior clerics' claim resonates with Iranian people.