The Latest from Iran (17 September): Tomorrow

Latest Iran Video: Ayatollah Dastgheib Condemns Khamenei (31 Aug/5 Sept?)
UPDATED Iran: The NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad
Qods Day: A Protest For Palestine or Against Iran’s Government?
Iran: So, What Are the Green Movement’s Goals Tomorrow?
Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

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2055 GMT: Reports that writer and blogger Ali Pirhousienlou and hsi wife Fatemeh Sotoudeh have been arrested.

1930 GMT: In addition to the assassination of the Assembly of Experts member (1750 GMT), it is reported that the Chief Prosecutor in Kurdestan has been shot.

1845 GMT: Tomorrow's march routes for Mashhad and for Rasht have been posted.

1750 GMT: In the latest of a series of assassinations in the province, the Kurdistan representative on the Assembly of Experts was killed today.

1705 GMT: An EA source sends us this from a Tehran resident: "People will come out but many are also leaving Tehran as it is a long weekend. Saturday is half closed and Sunday is a holiday. Many who participated in previous demonstrations are leaving Tehran or have left already and many are much scared of what happened to their colleagues, friends and other citizens."

1640 GMT: The Marches. Iranian activist HomyLafayette has posted the routes for tomorrow's marches in Tehran (7 routes ending at the University of Tehran; start at 10 a.m. local time; 0530 GMT), Isfahan, and Tabriz.

1545 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Mohammad Maleki, the former chancellor of Tehran University, has been charged with acting against Iran's national security. Maleki, who is 76 and suffering from prostate cancer, was arrested on 22 August.

1410 GMT: Mehdi Mousavi-Nejad, the brother of the wife of detained former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, has been arrested.

1310 GMT: Lemming MediaFail. Adding to NBC's threatened ludicrous journalism at the court of President Ahmadinejad (see separate entry), Reuters offers a spectacularly bad headline, "Iran opposition leaders to attend anti-Israel rally".

And in case you think that this is a slip-up and they do realise that the main reason for marching tomorrow is to maintain pressure on the Government, they repeat in the article, "Defeated presidential candidates Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi said they would attend the anti-Israel rally."

1305 GMT: The Government Warning. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued its threat through the Islamic Republic News Agency: "We are warning people and the movements who want to help the Zionist regime that if you seek any disruption or disorder during the glorious Quds Day rally, you will be decisively confronted by the courageous children of Iran....The enemies of the regime and the revolution and those who were defeated in the recent election are trying to take revenge for what happened on election day."

The IRGC claimed that dissent is part of a plan by "foreign networks, especially the Zionist regime's intelligence service to create disruption and division in the people's united movement."

1300 GMT: The Plan. Mehdi Karroubi's office has announced that the cleric will leave his offices at 11 a.m. local time tomorrow to march to 7 Tir Square for the Qods Day rally.

1240 GMT: Well, Well. The Internet is buzzing with reports of a visit by Mir Hossein Mousavi to Qom on Tuesday night, where he met Ayatollah Sane'i, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, the brother of Ayatollah Montazeri, Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, and the representative of Iraq's Ayatollah Sistani. Mousavi also participated in a meeting of the Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom.

We are confirming the exact date of the trip.

1030 GMT: Going After the Children. Confirming news we received last night: Mehdi Mirdamadi, the son of Mohsen Mirdamadi, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, was arrested last night. Mohsen Mirdamadi has been detained since shortly after the election.

Hossein Nourinejad, head of the information committee of the IIPF, and IIPF member Mehdi Mahmoudian have also been arrested.

1015 GMT: Credit to The Guardian of London, who have been running some interesting analysis on their website (though, unfortunately, not in the print edition). This morning Ranj Alaaldin and Nicholas Zanjani offer thoughts on "Ahmadinejad's desperate gamble", believing that his "administration depends on a redistribution of wealth for support and the flight of capital from Iran will hurt".

The article may be over-dramatic --- "As money continues to reverse course and leave the pockets of his supporters, those who voted for Ahmadinejad are being left to wonder why the government deserves their continuing loyalty" --- but it does raise the point, overlooked by most in the media but pressed on EA by Chris Emery, that the long-term weakness for the Government and possibly the regime lies in their management of the economy.

0800 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times focuses on "Iran Opposition Leader Sidelined from Rally", in what Robert Worth sees as "a striking break from precedent that suggests the country’s hard-line leaders fear the event could turn into an opposition rally". Borzou Daragahi runs the same story in The Los Angeles Times but turns the analysis into "the declining influence of Iranian moderates within the political elite". The Washington Post, with its preference for worry over Iran's nuclear programme, has nothing this morning.

Some of the broadcast media have now wandered from poor to terrible. NBC Television's staff have been shouting about their "exclusive" interview with President Ahmadinejad, to be broadcast in a few hours, but they have no apparent knowledge of Qods Day. CNN's Twitter posse have just proclaimed that they'll be following Qods Day. Last news story on the CNN website from inside Iran? 11 September.

0550 GMT: Looking towards the speeches and rallies on Qods (Jerusalem) Day on Friday, we've posted an analysis in the form of an important question, "What are the Green Movement's Goals?" Later this morning, we'll post an overview of the Qods Day marches by Meir Javedanfar.

Catching up with a couple of developments from yesterday:

An EA correspondent notes that the Rafsanjani interview downplaying his forced withdrawal from Qods Day prayers, summarised in Wednesday's updates, was carried by Al-Alam, the Arabic-language service of Iran's state television. The correspondent notes, "Why Rafsanajani chose to grant them his first post-electoral interview could be subject of speculation. Maybe he was told to tell the Arab world that Iran is not imploding?"

And a warning sign for Friday: Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Basiji militia in the town of Varamin have been distributing leaflets calling on their forces to converge on Tehran.

Comments

[WitteKr]

I'm missing something in the news of today here...
Namely the brilliant idea to leak the news that the US no longer wants to employ a missile shield in Europe “because Iran's long-range missile program has not progressed as rapidly as previously estimated, reducing the threat to the continental US and major European capitals”. The news was leaked through the Wall Street Journal, but has been somewhat confirmed now by AFP: "US President Barack Obama called Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer last night to discuss the missile shield to be based in Poland and the Czech Republic, Fischer's spokesman said Thursday.”

And Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak was quoted today as saying he does not view Iran as a threat to the existence of the Jewish state, a view that would seem to depart from Israeli statements of the recent past. (Reuters)

Coincidence? Don’t think so.
Timing? Perfect!

Implicit message: "Iran is a weak country, we don't fear you". Great diplomacy (or better: psychology)

[Scott Lucas]

WitteKr,

Spot on. There's a linked story that Obama, at the UN next week, will present a grand plan for handling nuclear proliferation. If I get time, we'll feature later today.

S.

[Peter]

Don't forget Medvedev's sudden willingness to consider sanctions against Iran as of yesterday, as well as the top secret visit of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to Russia earlier this week. This sudden cancellation of the European missile shield is no coincidence. There is definitely some sort of grand deal that has quietly been made with the Russians despite their previously stated unwillingness to consider such a quid pro quo.

[whereismyvote]

I agree with all three of you, in essence America has decided to sit down on the negotiation table with Iran, and before it does so, it has had to make a hand for itself. Dropping the nuclear shield against Russia and softening the Israeli existential threat option is all to the strength of USA when negotiating with Iran. It now has a card to play. Before with Russia barking at USA and Israel off to the left field threatening war, USA's negotiation hand was weak. Iran too has been fundamentally weakened post election, where now its legitimacy and government are all under question.

So before 2003 we had a weak Iran and a strong USA and a grand bargain that was rejected by USA. Today we have: Perception of a strong Iran and weak USA on the surface, but since the events of the last 4 months somewhat level playing field. It is now far more favorable for USA, compared to say March 2009. Pressing for a deal today is in the best strategic interest of USA, however this short term view, ignores two important facts.
1) Dealing with today's Iran (Namely AN / SL) leaves USA in a very terrible position where it has legitimized a military dictatorship. This will not only alianate the Iranian people but also will strenghten the AN alliance. I

2) The green movement is ultimately going to win this battle, be it 1 year or 3 year or 5 years. It is inevitable that th3 current 75% anti AN majority will grow to be 80% to 90% within 2 to 3 years. Ultimately this plus the weak economic state and the effects of inflation and poverty will cause the downfall of the AN / SL religotery alliance.

At that point the US will find itself facing a population that is hurt by their own leaders and has come to view USA as a traitor and AN / SL supporter. USA would find itself again on the wrong side of history, against the Iranian people.

Best to do nothing. Let the Iranians fester for a few years. We all know the nuclear threat was all hype and no teeth.

[whereismyvote]

@1705
AN made it a 3 day long weekend. Typical weekend is 1 day (Friday holiday) however AN declared Saturday and Sunday also stat holidays and so lots of people are making it a long weekend and getting out of the city..

[Arshama]

Thanks to Scott Lucas and EA for their continous reporting on Iran.
GMT 1310: I fully agree with the Reuters' headline. As Mr Nouri-Ala rightly put it in today's discussion with VOA Persian, two factions (hardliners and reformists) are now fighting for power in Iran, and it does not matter who wins the battle. In any case the Iranian people would be the looser - as it has been during these last 30 years. Nevertheless they have no alternative to use such symbolic days of the regime for their own cause.
In his recent daily video message Mohsen Sazegara smartly played the nationalistic card with citing "Neither for Gaza nor Lebanon, I give my life for Iran". He also tries to convince his listeners that Moussavi is under pressure and unable to present slogans against the IRI. In fact both factions are under pressure, being aware that they have lost popular support. Both factions are unable (or unwilling) to guarantee fundamental civilian rights, a demand you hear in nearly every discussion with Iranians inside the country. Changes to a secular state in Iran appear thus inevitable, but the big question remains, how?
If the regime supresses tomorrow's protests violently (which it propably does), violent reactions will be inevitable in the long-term. The people are sick of being held as hostages in their own country. But I still hope that the regime crumbles down because of its political and economic incompetence.
President Obama's decision to give up the rocket shield in Eastern Europe is good news, no pretext left for Russia to oppose increased sanctions against the IRI.

[Monique]

It would be interesting to point out that every year, on Qud's day, the Iranians protest en masse in favor of the oppressed Palestinians. I was just wondering... now that the Iranians have suffered a terrible crackdown with so many death, imprisonment, torture, rape and intimidation, why is it that we have not seen ONE Palestinian protest in favor of their oppressed Iranian brothers? Answer anyone?

[mahasti]

Monique - It's about politics, that's why, not what's right/wrong; IRI didn't support the Chechens/Uighurs either against Russia/China either. To put it kindly, they're all opportunistic cynics.
To be sure, with new deals being made between US/Russia, we're in for a new variation on the theme. To what extent the Iranian opposition is influencing/will impact the conversation remains to be seen.

[Amy]

@ 1930 GMT:
What's with these assassinations? Is there a purge going on?

[The Latest from Iran (17 Septe]

[...] Read the original: The Latest from Iran (17 September): Tomorrow | Enduring America [...]

[whereismyvote]

@Amy

My first guess is that this is intimidation by IRGC before the 22nd meeting. What could be the case is that there has been ramblings of a push to oust the SL during the Assembly meeting early next week. This will in turn be a call to all the assembly members that you are expendable. The assassination of the Attorney General could be also a signal that the courts can not be used to prosecute Basiji and Pasdaran members for crimes. The signal for the Attorney General assassination is cloudy, but the signal for the assassination of an assembly member is obvious. This is a 2 cent quick analysis. Please do not quote, as I have no facts to back it up.

[Samuel]

"And a warning sign for Friday: Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Basiji militia in the town of Varamin have been distributing leaflets calling on their forces to converge on Tehran."

Contrary to reformist propaganda the Basij has been highly energized by the prominent position given to it by the govt. to lead the battle against what it calls "soft power". In other words the Basij will be Iran's equivalent of the Chinese "Red Guards", the leading edge of the cultural revolution to defend the Khomeini Revolution.

Of course the Basij will also be in the forefront of confronting "hard power" in their role. Iran is rapidly producing its own domestic assault rifles of very high quality.

"Khaybar KH 2002 assault rifle is a recent development of the Iranian Defense Industry Organization; this rifle was first shown in 2004." http://world.guns.ru/assault/as81-e.htm

The Basij is slated to receive massive quantities of the venerable AK-47 rifle (either an import or Iran's own very good copy) as that rifle is replaced in front line duty by the rifle set forth above. The day is not far when Khomeini's dream of a 20 million man (and woman) fully armed Basij is realized. It is time for every Basij member, WITHOUT EXCEPTION, to have his own AK as he defends the revolution.

[Adam]

Samuel, it doesn't take a very high quality assault rival to kill unarmed protestors. Scott, why are you letting this regime hack/propagandist (Samuel) to post on your site?

[Samuel]

"Samuel, it doesn’t take a very high quality assault rival to kill unarmed protestors. Scott, why are you letting this regime hack/propagandist (Samuel) to post on your site?"

It would help if you understood what I wrote. The rifle is to be used to confront "hard power", i.e., foreign attacks by an armed force. (Israeli, American, Kurdish separatists etc.,)

One obviously does not need rifles when it comes to "soft power" (velvet revolution, cultural conflict, even confrontations on the streets). You will note that the Basij, with rare exceptions, relied on simple clubs and their Honda motorcycles.

Both types of power can be directed against the revolution but different tools apply in each case.

[Samuel]

As a follow up to the comment on the Basij we should note that the high present morale of the Basij applies tenfold when it comes to the female Basij members.

Since AN is the devil according to reformist propaganda no act taken by him could possibly be positive. Well in the real world the women of the Basij are extremely happy with AN's unprecedented nomination of 3 women to his Cabinet in the face of ferocious opposition from traditionalist clerics.

Not only did AN get one of his nominees through, he followed up by nominating another woman for one of the three remaining cabinet positions.

AN could discover the cured for AIDS tomorrow and the greenies would have a reason to attack him for it.

[Adam]

"You will note that the Basij, with rare exceptions, relied on simple clubs and their Honda motorcycles."

That is a disgusting lie. We have seen shootings by Basij on TV and by internet media. We have seen numerous accounts of rapes and murders, and when the evidence of them is presented to the regime by a respected cleric (Karroubi), the cleric is threatened instead of the perpetrators.

[Adam]

Samuel, was Neda killed by a club or honda motorcycle? Should I show you the video so you can determine for yourself?

[Samuel]

Adam,

Why do you have problems with simple sentences? This is what I wrote.
"You will note that the Basij, with rare exceptions"

The tragedy of Neda was (yes) a rare exception. If the Basij had really wanted to use firearms do you really think that there would be 72 dead? (For arguments sake I'm relying on the number used by the reformists.)

Do you really want to know what happens when a Govt. really wants to crack down? See the example of 1988 when Imam Khomeini (YES IMAM KHOMEINI NOT THE CURRENT SL OR AN) ordered THOUSANDS (YES YOU READ CORRECTLY THOUSANDS) TO BE SHOT for oppossing the Revolution.

"1988 executions of Iranian political prisoners (Persian: ۱۳۶۷ اعدام زندانیان سیاسی در تابستان) refers to the systematic execution of thousands of political prisoners across Iran by the government of Iran, starting on 19 July 1988 and lasting about five months"

"The killings have been called "an act of violence unprecedented in Iranian history — unprecedented in form, content, and intensity." Estimates of the number executed vary from 8,000 to 30,000."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_executions_of_Iranian_political_prisoners

The SL and AN are pacifists compared with the Father of the Iranian Revolution. Those are facts, not hysterics.

[Adam]

We don't know how many scores of non-violent dissidents and young protesters were murdered by the basij after the stealing of the election. Nor are we allowed to know as any disclosure of the facts is met by imprisonment and murder.
You are right to point out that Khomenei killed political dissidents en masse, an oversight by the Green movement that I hope is temporary and tactical rather than real denial of history.
However you are wrong that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad are pacifists. Some elements of the regime are limiting the activation of the armed forces due to the very real risk that the armed forces will not split in Khamenei's favor. Ahmadinejad is almost universally unpopular and Khamenei has been drastically weakened, so neither has the option of repeating the extent of Khomenei's murders.

[Afshin]

@ Samuel

2 wrongs dont make a right.

U seem to be smart enough to be able understand things and you seem to be smart enough to realise that Iran is heading for a Fascist state. Regardless for your views on Mousavi or the rest of them surley u must understand that any goverment needs to be there for the people, that democracy is proven to be not perfect but it is still the best possible tool to govern.

Look at the state Iran is in right now, look at the crimes being made against its own people, look at what we have become !!

If you are against Mousavi and the Green's so be it, but atleast recognise the cries of the Iranian people, their desire for freedom and democracy.... you can not force views and (certain interpertation of) a religion on people.

[Afshin]

@ Adam

I think its great that Samuel is here posting. He is free same as the rest of us to share his ideas and thoughts. He is to my knowledge so far keeping it to his beliefs, thoughts and ideas. Not attacking anyone directly, cursing, using 4 letters words or anything like that. EA should not filter his voice just because it is diffrent.

Lets hope the day will come where Samuel also understands that Democracy, Freedom, respect for the people and Justice are the way to go forward and that you can not force your Thoughts/ Ideals on the people using Guns...

[Samuel]

Afshin,

I think my view of the Greens is clear. The truth is that the “reformists” are not reformists in any real sense of the word. Their goal pure and simple is to overthrow the system, to destroy the Revolution. The cat was let out of the bag when the Pasdaran revealed direct private quotes made by the former president Khatami BEFORE the June 12 elections:

“if Ahmadinejad falls in this election the leader will practically be eliminated.”

“If reforms return to administration, the leader will no longer have authority in the society ...” http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=312560&version=1&template_id=37&parent_id=17

I do not believe that Khatami has ever denied saying these things (for good reason: they are probably on tape) instead relying on tried and true whining, claiming that “the military cannot intervene” in elections.

Eliminating (in effect) the Supreme Leader is not “reform”, it constitutes nothing less than an attempt to destroy the Revolution of Imam Khomeini. Velayat-e Faqih (The Guardianship of the Islamic Jurisprudent) is the key doctrine and central institution of Khomeinist Iran. At the end of the day the so called reformists are nothing more than Traitors to the Revolution.

Now to my own view of the govt. I am a supporter of the Revolution and of the historic legacy of the Ayatollah Khomeini both in Iran and the wider world. Now the Revolution was not/is not a democracy in the western sense but neither can it be considered a fascist system.

There are huge differences in the Presidential regimes of Khamenei during the 80's, Rafsanjani during the 80's and 90's, Khatami from 1997 to 2005 and AN 2005 to the present, so many differences that they show that the fascism charge is a lie.

BUT it is a controlled system, a semi-authoritarian type of govt. with democratic and republican aspects but not democratic or republican in the way it is understood in the west. It is not a system that has engaged in violence for the sake of violance (like Saddam's Iraq) but it is a system that reacts strongly when its very nature is threatened (see 1988 and 2009). It is not a warmonger system as it has never invaded any of its neighboring country.

It is also a form of govt. that has done a tremendous amount of good work in the region and abroad opposing imperialism and the despicable Zionist Israeli State.

I am not opposed to reform BUT REFORM WITHIN THE REVOLUTION. A presidency by Larijani or other conservatives would not bother me a great deal. And yes sadists, rapists, etc. in the prison system should be punished. Again reform within the system.

These views will not be tolerated by the Greens because they want to overthrow the system. The want Iran to be Holland or Sweeden and to sit out the fight against Israel. For many this won't do.

For many of us the Revolution itself and the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurisprudent are non-negotiable.

[Afshin]

I do not say Iran is a Fascist state now, I do claim we are heading towards a fascist state. The Iran we have seen so far is in no way the Iran that is being formed now, If the Guards have their way Iran is infact heading towards Fascisme.

- Was it not the Iman Khomeini who said the GUARDS should never NEVER be allowed to have political aspiration?

- Was it not the Iman who said if if they forget their obligation, their duties and try to enter politics the guardian Council must forbid them ?

- Was it not the same Hojjatieh the only movement that DID NOT help Khomeini during the revolution and did not fight against the Shah?

- Was it not the same Hojjatieh that was full of Savak ?

- Was it not the Iman who made Hojjatieh an illegal movement?

[Afshin]

@ whereismyvote/ Amy

Dont be to sure on that. It could be the work of rebels.
Does anyone know for sure the political prefrences of the representative?
If I am not mistaken he is actually from the A.N camp. His name is I think "Mamousta Sheikholeslam"

[Nelly]

@Samuel
So, you plead for reform within the system. The Greens were seeking reform within the system, both Moussavi and Karoubi were candidates approved by the system and coming from the establishment of the IRI and willing to reform within the system. But there is one faction in the system (A.N. and the Guards) which doesn't want reform and want all the power for themselves and having not the best interest for the people in their mind. So they are establishing an even more totalitarian regime now. So it is them who are now not acting within the system.

And your remarks about the Dutch and the Swedish democracy's: as I am Dutch I can assure you that these democracies work pretty well. They have their own difficulties, nowhere is perfect. But at least here people are free to speak , to write their opinion and form their own political parties and are not put in jail, tortured or raped if they do so. We even have become lazy in speaking out and I have a tremendous admiration for the Iranian people who did stand up for their believes in spite of all the dangers they are facing now and in the last 30 years.