The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

NEW Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Obama Backs Himself into a Corner
UPDATED Iran: So What’s This “National Unity Plan”?
NEW Latest Iran Video: More University Demonstrations (29 September)
UPDATED Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Scott Lucas in La Stampa (English Text)
NEW Text: Mousavi Statement to His Followers (28 September)
NEW What is Iran’s Military Capacity?
The Latest from Iran (28 September): Signals of Power
Latest Iran Video: The Universities Protest (28 September)

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2100 GMT: We have posted an emergency update of our story on the National Unity Plan. To be blunt, this has turned into a giant mystery which we can lay out but not solve this evening, and there are likely to be further developments (even though it is early morning in Tehran) for our first update on Wednesday.

1700 GMT: We've split off our snap analysis updates on the National Unity Plan into a separate entry.

1545 GMT: A steady stream of reports indicate there are smaller but still significant gatherings of demonstrators in Tehran today. This is in addition to the sizable protest at Sharif University.

1455 GMT: Fars News have just published a copy of the National Unity Plan. We'll be back within the hour with an analysis.

1430 GMT: Back from a teaching break to find tension growing over the privatisation of Iran's state telecommunications company, with 51 percent going to a consortium linked to the Revolutionary Guard. It is reported that the Telecommunications Trade Council will review the deal, with the possibility of cancelling it because of concerns over a "monopoly".

1100 GMT: I sense a debate emerging, given our readers' comments, over the latest move of Mehdi Karroubi with his letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. Tehran Bureau takes the line that this is a Karroubi criticism, rather than a plan worked out with the former President:

1) Karroubi criticises Rafsanjani for his failure to launch an investigation into the election during his chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts session;

2) Karroubi criticises Rafsanjani for being absent during the final meeting, with its declaration praising the Supreme Leader and framing the events after the election as riots and a conspiracy;

3) Karroubi criticizes Rafsanjani for not asking the Assembly to investigate how the military is taking control of the economy, as in the recent purchase of a 51% share in Iran's state telecommunications firm;

4) Karroubi criticizes Rafsanjani for not calling on the Assembly to review Iran's foreign policy.

0930 GMT: We've just posted video from today's demonstration at Sharif University. It is reported that Minister of Science Kamran Daneshjoo was prevented from reaching the Central Library.

0905 GMT: Tabnak reports that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has distanced himself from his brother Mohammad Javad Larijani, a high-level official in the Judiciary, after the latter's criticism of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mohammad Khatami.

0900 GMT: It Wasn't Just Tehran. An account has been posted of University demonstrations on Monday in Shiraz.

0835 GMT: President candidate Mohsen Rezaei has made a significant intervention with a call for a "national election commission independent of the three branches of Government".

Rezaei's proposal, building upon earlier criticism of the Guardian Council for its handling of the Presidential vote, presents a political challenge to President Ahmadinejad moving beyond a simple "reform" of the system. His interview with Ayande News is the closest he has come to alleging electoral fraud, and he is critical of a number of individuals.

0740 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Monday statement to his followers: "Qods Day showed that [our] network is like a toddler who is growing incredibly quickly."

0725 GMT: Parleman News has now posted a summary report of yesterday's student demonstrations.

0715 GMT: Fars News tries to pour cold water on the Rafsanjani plan for a political settlement, featuring the comments of a "hard-line" member of Parliament, Ranjbarzadeh, that the plan is unacceptable because it gives concessions to the losers of the election.

0625 GMT: Iran's Nuclear Offer. The head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, has laid out Tehran's line in an interview with Press TV. Iran "will soon inform the International Atomic Energy Agency of a timetable for inspection". The plant will produce enriched uranium of up to 5 percent, consistent with a civilian nuclear energy programme, and it is being constructed within the framework of the IAEA regulations. Salehi emphasised, "It is against our tenets, it is against our religion to produce, use, hold or have nuclear weapons or arsenal. How can we more clearly state our position? Since 1974 we have been saying this."

It is 48 hours until Iran's meeting with the "5+1" powers in Geneva.

0555 GMT: Karroubi's second letter to Rafsanjani (0535 GMT) takes on a added sense of urgency because of the Government's decimation of  websites connected with Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. The Etemade Melli/Saham News site, the Kalemeh site (which had replaced Mousavi's hacked Ghalam News site), and Tagheer are all down. Mowj-e-Sabz, however, is still up, featuring Mousavi's latest statement cautioning the movement against violence.

0535 GMT: A couple of interesting shifts within the Establishment. The long-anticipated change at the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has been made, with Ezatullah Zarghami replaced by Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli. What is more interesting is the framing of the move, with Zarghami blamed for "the poor performance of the IRIB" during and after the election. Meanwhile, Fazli is portrayed as an ally of the Larijani brothers and a critic of President Ahmadinejad.

Contrary to our update yesterday, university classes have not been suspended for seven days because of "swine flu" (or Monday's demonstrations). The headline in Mehr exaggerated the story, which was simply that provisions were in place to order a suspension if fears of flu arose. Still, the

But the most important development by far came from the opposition. While Mir Hossein Mousavi, considering his next move, tried to reassure his followers that Qods Days was a success, Mehdi Karroubi may have taken the bull by the horns (or, in this case, the shark by the gills). His second letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani was not quite, "Are you with us or against us?", but it has asked the former President to come forth on the plan circulated at the Assembly of Experts. Put bluntly, Karroubi wants to know if the rumoured "political resolution" will take heed of opposition demands or sell out the protestors.

Iran: Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and the Multi-Sided Chess Match

The Latest from Iran (25 September): Catching Up

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Yesterday EA's Mr Smith sent me a challenging analysis of the significance of this week's Assembly of Experts meetings and Hashemi Rafsanjani's latest manoeuvres:

"Basically the much-anticipated Assembly of Experts meeting ended up according to plan. There were some grievances on the current state of affairs --- Rafsanjani and others, such as Ayatollah Dastgheib, did emit warnings regarding the government --- but all in all it was far from being a threat to Ayatollah Khamenei. Of course, we have to wait and see what the proposal from the eminent politicians cited by Rafsanjani is going to be about. The photos published from the customary meeting between the AoE and Khamenei relay an atmosphere of cordiality. All accusations are vague and quite frankly not new."

I agree with Mr Smith that one outcome of the Assembly meeting is the clearest of indications that Rafsanjani is now aligning with the Supreme Leader, but that is far from a new development. Rafsanjani's Friday Prayer speech on 17 July did pose challenges to Khamenei, but throughout August and September, the former President has manoeuvred for position by declaring his firm support for the Supreme Leader and "unity".

Put bluntly, if this were an issue of a straightforward chess match of Rafsanjani v. Khamenei, this could be a case of Hashemi offering an honourable draw and moving to the next match alongside, rather than against the Supreme Leader. If that match was against the reformists, then one of the persistent questions of this crisis would have been settled: having raised prospects so high two months ago with his effective declaration that he was with the Green movement's opposition to the current system, Rafsanjani would have walked away from the struggle.

But, as EA readers corrected me many weeks ago, this is not a two-player chess match. There are several sides to the board: the reformists occupy one, and so does the President and his allies. And, after all the head-scratching I've done this week, this feels like a different alignment of players:

Rafsanjani does want to be alongside Khamenei, but the ultimate opponent is Ahmadinejad. To be successful in that contest, it is to Rafsanjani's advantage to keep the other players in the match

Let's put the chess analogy another way: it is the President who has been trying to reduce this conflict to a straight-up, two-sided battle. Mahmoud v. the Greens. The system v. the illegitimate opposition. "Iran" v. the foreigners. Every statement he has made since the 12 June election, beginning with his denigration of the opposition as "dust" points to that simplification.

But, ironically, it was others within the Establishment and not the Green movement who complicated that plan. When the conservative and principlist politicians rebelled against the abuse of detainees and, more specifically, Ahmadinejad's leadership of his Cabinet, another player was at the chessboard. When the Supreme Leader made his limited but clear steps to criticise the President, including the closure of Kahrizak Prison and his insistence on the removal of First Vice President Rahim-Mashai, he had put his own set of pieces in play.

So Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard have not only had to fight their initial contest with the Green movement, they have to get back to that us v. them showdown. They succeeded, for now, in retiring the conservatives/principlists, but the Supreme Leader posed a trickier chess problem. Move too quickly in a challenge against Khamenei and the entire system of velayat-e-faqih (supreme clerical authority) becomes an issue. And, even if the President may wish to curb that system in practice, he probably does not want to appear to be doing so, for then the symbolic basis of the Islamic Republic since 1979 is exposed.

I have no doubt that Rafsanjani knows this. So this past week, indeed over the past weeks, he made a calculation and decisions to keep the board multi-sided. He did not need to make a high-profile appearance at Qods Day because the Green movement stayed in play with their own momentum of protest. Instead, he could concentrate on keeping the Supreme Leader in the game as an actor who could move against the President as well as the reformists.

And there's more. I think another player is now at the table. If there was a concrete step in the Assembly's general declaration, it was that the criticisms of marjas (the most senior Shi'a clerics) must be heeded, not only in principle but in practice. This does not mean immediate concessions to a Government opponent such as Ayatollah Montazeri who, for all his symbolic resonance with many Iranians, is on the fringe of the main contest. It does mean a recognition and response to the challenges put by other Grand Ayatollahs, including some who have long been seen as "conservative".

Consider two incidents. Less than two months ago, Ahmadinejad's supporters on the Assembly of Experts tried to reduce the chessboard by taking Rafsanjani out of play, with the blundering letter that claimed to be in the name of the Assembly and called for the former President's removal as chairman. Earlier this week it was Rafsanjani demonstrating that he was very much there and very much commanding the attention both of the Government and of its opponents.

But Rafsanjani was absent when the Assembly's statement was read, right? Absolutely, but my initial brow-raising concern, that he had suffered a setback, was replaced by another possibility. Rafsanjani needs his position as chair of the Assembly, but he is not solely reliant upon its members for his influence. Stepping away from the proceedings, he could indicate that he had achieved his main purpose and was now moving to the next steps of his alignment with Khamenei and others.

For consider the second incident. Before Qods Day, Speaker of the House Ali Larijani, apparently carrying messages from Ayatollah Khamenei, met Grand Ayatollahs and other senior clerics. The content of those discussions has not been leaked, but it now appears that Larijani's mission was not to warn the marjas but to seek an accommodation with them. And, if that is the case, who is the accommodation against?

A two-sided chess analogy might say the "Green movement". But some of those marjas are now supportive of the Green movement. And it is those marjas whom Rafsanjani said, only days after the Larijani meeting, are important in this ongoing political battle.

There's an important caveat in this analysis: just because Rafsanjani wants Khamenei in this match, able to move against as well as with Ahmadinejad, does not mean that this is a Supreme Leader on a string. And yesterday, as Khamenei addressed the Assembly, he tacked back to the "sophistication and extensiveness in planning by the enemy in the current situation". Coming weeks after the Supreme Leader had played down the notion of a "velvet revolution" in the post-election conflict, this appears to be Khamenei's own re-alignment with Government propaganda against the Green movement:

The Islamic system has a 30-years experience in confronting different challenges, but, in view of the development in the system and the complexity of its achievements, its opponents' conspiracies and plots have also become more complex. Thus, its diverse aspects must be identified in order to overcome them....

In their soft war, the opponents of the system have made use of an overwhelming amount of propaganda and telecommunications tools to attack the beliefs, the power of discernment, the motivation, and the foundations and pillars of a system and the country.

Khamenei praised the election --- again --- with "a high and unprecedented vote is one of our great strengths". He praised Iran's "solid infrastructure and the country's preparedness for a leap forward, significant scientific progress, the system's 30-year experience, an energetic, educated and self-confident young generation, and the [20-year strategic] plan defining the movement of the country towards its horizons until 2026".

What he did not do, however, was single out the President for exaltation. And that, as Hashemi Rafsanjani listened, leaves open the question: who has aligned with whom against whom?

A rule: the more players in the chess match, the more difficult the situation is for Ahmadinejad, even if he tries to walk away from that match with his "international" appearances. And, to me, it looks like this chessboard expanded, rather than contracted, this week.

The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day

NEW Qods Day Video Special: The Black-and-White Soccer Game
NEW Iran's Qods Day: The Participants Speak
Qods Day: The Discussion Continues
Iran Qods Day: Snap Analysis and Summary Translation of Ahmadinejad Speech
NEW Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)
UPDATED Iran: The Full NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad
NEW Iran: What’s at Stake on Qods Day for Green Movement and Regime?
Iran: So, What Are the Green Movement’s Goals Tomorrow?


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2135 GMT: The Best Rumour of the Day (1745 GMT) is now Fun Fact of the Day. Iranian state television did show tonight's football match in black-and-white, and we've got the video.

2040 GMT: An Important Note to Close (For Now). I was going to hold this until morning, but as a reader has noted on the discussion thread, it is far too important a development to be treated lightly.

Advar reports what we have been observing since yesterday: there are worrying signs that the Internet is being strangled inside Iran, with slowing speeds. An EA correspondent adds reports from Iran that other services, such as Yahoo Messenger and Gmail, are unreachable and anti-filter mechanism are also almost completely down. He asks, "Could this be the start of the Government's [next] crackdown?"

2006 GMT: I'm Going to Tell You One More Time, New York Times (1155 GMT). Your headline writer has his priorities wrong: "Amid Large Protests, Iran Leader Calls Holocaust a Lie".

Here's your rewrite: "Despite President's Israel Diversion, Large Protests Challenge Government".

(I swear that I wrote this seven minutes before reading this from the National Iranian American  Council, "The NYT editors need some help today. Their coverage shouldn’t be entitled, 'Amid Large Protests, Iran Leader Calls Holocaust a Lie'. The real headline should be 'Thousands Protest at Rallies Despite Threats'.")

1950 GMT: A Good Mystery to End the Night: Why Did Ali Larijani Meet the Clerics?

Tehran Bureau, drawing from Tabnak, has part but only part of the story: "Majlis [Parliament] speaker Ali Larijani has secretly met with Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem-Shirazi at his residence in Qom." The full story is that Larijani met not only Makarem-Shirazi but also Ayatollahs Nouri-Hamedani and Safi-Golpaygani to "discuss current important issues of the country".

So why has Larijani sat down with three clerics who have criticised the Government to varying degrees, including one (Safi-Golpaygani) who was castigated by the Supreme Leader for sending a letter criticising the Cabinet? Try this: just as Larijani, acting for Ayatollah Khamenei, called in Mehdi Karroubi at the start of this week to ask him to quiet down, now he is carrying the Supreme Leader's message that it would be best for all concerned if everyone stepped back from public criticism.

The problem for Larijani and Khamenei is that today's demonstrations are likely to embolden the senior clerics, making it more difficult to bring them in line.

1845 GMT: Two New Entries. Because of all the great discussion amongst the readers, we've started a new thread for debate.

And, thanks to an excellent EA source, we've got first-hand observations from participants in marches in five different locations across Tehran. The Best Rumour of the Day about the Football Match (1745 GMT)? It's true. The heckling of Ahmadinejad when he was talking with IRIB Channel 2 after his speech ("Ahmadi, Ahmadi, Resign, Resign!")? Also very true.

1745 GMT: Best Rumour of Day. "Only parts of today's soccer match were televised [by state media], in black and white without sound, hiding green effects and chants."

And it gets better: "State TV sports commentator says we only have one camera at the soccer match and it is not functioning."

1738 GMT: Picture. (Tens of) Thousand(s of) Words. How big were the rallies? Well, going through the visual evidence including this entry's photo, taken in Azadi Square, we will now say that "tens of thousands" were marching and demonstrating today.

1733 GMT: Another Arrest. Fatemeh Dardkeshan, daughter of the reformist activist (and student of Ayatollah Montazeri) Mahmoud Dardkeshan, has been detained.

1732 GMT: The Jostling of Khatami. This photo of the former President being bumped into retreat (reminiscent of Mehdi Karroubi being jostled at the 17 July Friday Prayers of Hashemi Rafsanjani) has emerged.



1730 GMT: Reports that SMS is being reconnected in Tehran.

1700 GMT: The buzz is still about whether or not Mir Hoseein Mousavi showed up today, with the claim of a second photograph and a new report from "a witness" claiming that "supporters rushed Mousavi into his car when the hard-liners approached". To be honest with you (and foreshadowing our Saturday analysis), however, the issue is not as much about the authenticity of the pictures as it is the legitimacy of Mousavi's leadership.

"Everyone" knows that Mehdi Karroubi made a stand by appearing at the rallies today. "Everyone" knows that Mohammad Khatami went to the rally and was jostled into retreat. But not everyone knows that Mousavi made a public stand. They are not certain if he participated and, if he did so, whether he was with the protestors or "pro-Government" crowds.

In other words, Mousavi has done a lot with written statements since July but writing in this case is cheap. What is at issue here is whether Mousavi (as he did early in the crisis) is a public face as well as an author for "The Green Path of Hope".

1530 GMT: Radio Farda says 800 protesters have gathered in front of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting buildings in north Tehran.

1450 GMT: Internet is still buzzing with reports of clashes inside and outside Tehran. One that has received press support is of a crackdown by security forces in Isfahan.

1420 GMT: Josh Shahryar has written concisely and effectively about the issues surrounding the claimed picture of Mir Hossein Mousavi at today's rally (see 1335 GMT).

1415 GMT: More Cyber-Wars. Rah-e-Sabz reports that it, like other sites such as Mowj-e-Sabz, has been under attack. The site claims that much of the Internet in Iran was cut off or restricted in anticipation of today's rallies.

1400 GMT: A Journalist's Ponderings. Hard on the heels of her interview with President Ahmadinejad, NBC's Ann Curry offers this exclusive insight, "Ahmadinejad on Twitter: 'I don't have a problem with it. But it should not be used for wrong purposes.'"

So has this posted because Ms Curry is in agreement with her interviewee, considering Twitter to be a dangerous inconvenience to proper politics and journalism? Or could she, after the follies of NBC's excursion to Iran, be reflecting that the President sees Twitter as more of a threat --- opening avenues of information and analysis --- than the woman who just interviewed him?

1335 GMT: Mousavi Mystery. As Afshin has noted in comments below, there is a photograph which claims to be of Mir Hossein Mousavi at the Qods Day rally today. There is a great deal of confusion, as the photograph has been posted by the Facebook site run by supporters of Mousavi and by Mehr News, which claims it shows Mousavi supporting a pro-Government rally.

For now, we're treating the picture as suspect and a possible weapon in a war of information/disinformation, as there has been no other indication that Mousavi made it to the rally today.

1315 GMT: More Arrests of Clerics' Relatives? Mowj-e-Sabz reports, "In the protests today, Hamed, Naser and Hajar Montazeri - grandchildren of Ay Montazeri were arrested. Marzia Elahinia, Hamed Montazeri's wife, and Sara Azizi, Naser Montazeri's wife, were also arrested. Ayatollah Rabbani's daughter Loya Rabbani and her daughter Zahra Dostmohammadi and Mohammad Hossein Rabbani another of his grandchildren were also arrested."

Some confusion here as three of Montazeri's grandchildren were reported to have been arrested earlier this week and it is unclear if there are more grandchildren being arrested, the same grandchildren being detained again, or a mix of two reports. In any case, the regime's pressure on the senior clerics who are challeging it is now very apparent.

1250 GMT: And Yes, Virginia, There is a Khatami. Mohammad Khatami was at the Qods Day rally today, if only briefly. Parleman News posts a set of pictures, two of which we've reproduced. The first is Khatami's arrival; the second may be an indication of the security forces' response that forced Khatami to leave.



1155

1155 GMT: We've moved Mr Smith's outstanding near-live translation of the Ahmadinejad speech from our updates to a separate entry, together with his snap analysis of the President's language and strategy.

I've only seen the headlines on "mainstream" coverage of the speech, but I'll put down a marker. Any news service that frames this as "Ahmadinejad Revives Holocaust Myth" (oh, look, The New York Times has just fulfilled our prediction) or "Ahmadinejad Bashes Israel" is missing the big picture. The real story is that Ahmadinejad avoided comment on the challenge to him within Iran, so the Israel angle is simply a high-profile diversion (and one that I suspect will work with most "Western" journalists).

The second smokescreen, thanks to NBC's supposed masterpiece of coverage, will be incessant recycling of Ahmadinejad's comments on talks with the US over Iran's nuclear programme, ignoring what should have been today's focus on the Qods Day rallies.

1120 GMT: Cyber-Attacks. After Parleman News reported last night that it is being filtered by the Government, preventing access inside Iran, the Green movement's site Mowj-e-Sabz is now down.

1100 GMT: Yes, Virginia, There is a Mehdi. Confirmation that Mehdi Karroubi was at the Qods Day rally today comes in a video posted on the Facebook pages of Mir Hossein Mousavi. We're now posting it in our video section.

1045 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz posts an overview of protests, arrests, and clashes in "Bushehr, Rasht, Tabriz, Isfahan, Shiraz, Isfahan, Ahvaz, Mashhad...."

1030 GMT: How Big? As you can appreciate, we are erring on side of caution in making projections on size of rally. But, looking across video evidence (some of it posted in our separate entry), I would now go beyond "several thousand" protesting in Tehran. Does the question go beyond, "Ten Thousand?" to "How many tens of thousands?"

1015 GMT: Oh, Yeah, The Friday Prayer. Apparently Ahmad Khatami said, "There are two basic reasons for our support for Palestine and Quds, first because Muslims are a single nation and second because we support the oppressed....The Zionists have tried to make this Quds Day a failure but they will not succeed". And so on.

1010 GMT: So "Where Is Mir Hossein Mousavi?" Here's the answer from the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Strong protests of people to Khatami, Mousavi and Karroubi's presence at Qods demonstration". The newspaper reports, "Mousavi showed up at Vali-Asr intersection at 12 noon with a few bodyguards, and was forced to retreat after confronted with people shouting "Death to Mousavi the hypocrite, Mousavi, Mousavi Shameless". It adds that Khatami and Karroubi were also forced away.

Al Jazeera is now reporting this although "it cannot verify".

0935 GMT: Catching Our Breath for Questions. The news that Mohammad Khatami was "attacked" and forced away from the rally seems solid (0809 GMT). But did Mehdi Karroubi appear and speak to the marchers (0633 GMT).

And where is Mir Hossein Mousavi?

0930 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz is now reporting clashes and "violent situation" in Isfahan and clashes and arrests in Tabriz.

0915 GMT: Classic (and Accurate) Quote of Day. It's from Josh Shahryar, "Get yer cokes and pizzas folks. It's gonna be a long day."

0910 GMT:More on Rallies. Al Jazeera is already bumping the President aside for the marches, as their footage indicates there may be more than the "several thousand" we just projected. CNN's Reza Sayah on Twitter claims, "3-4 kilometre stretch between Vali Asr Square & Laleh Park packed with tens of thousands of opposition supporters".

0845 GMT: How Big Are the Rallies? Images on Al Jazeera television show masses of people on the move, and Agence France Presse is claiming "tens of thousands" from witnesses.

A source inside Iranian media has told EA that the internal broadcast feed is showing 3000-3500 demonstrators. Based on the reports, we now feel comfortable saying “several thousand” Green Wave supporters are marching, wearing green wristbands, with the largest confirmed rally at the Vali-e Asr intersection, near Tehran University on Enghelab Street.

(We think that the AFP report of "tens of thousands" may include not only Green Wave supporters but also onlookers and some Ahmadinejad supporters who are also present or are on way to Tehran University.)

0809 GMT: Parleman News claims confirmation of reports, which we have been followed, that former President Mohammad Khatami was "attacked" and forced to leave the Qods Day rally. The newspaper claims this was done at the behest of the son of the editor of Kayhan newspaper, Hossein Shariatmadari.

0745 GMT: President Ahmadinejad starting his speech introducing Friday Prayers. See our separate summary translation.

0740 GMT: Excuse of Day (So Far). Iranian state TV says, “Unfortunately we can't covered Qods Days rallies with helicopter because security forces have prevented us.”

0730 GMT: Reports coming in of preparation for Friday Prayers in Tehran. Government figures such as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in crowd, President Ahmadinejad arriving.

0715 GMT: EA correspondent confirms following Twitter claim, "Iranian State TV broadcasting the protests without sound and saying people are chanting for Palestine". He adds, "Footage is very sanitised."

0710 GMT: Counter-claim. Well-placed source in Iranian media tells EA correspondent that "few hundred" have gathered in Tehran squares. No mention of Karroubi or Khatami amongst protestors. Source says this is from "internal (and thus unseen) broadcast feeds", not what is actually being aired on State TV.

0705 GMT: Reported chanting of "Long Live Montazeri!! Viva Sane'i" (praising two Grand Ayatollahs who have criticised the Government) at Karim-Khan Bridge.

0700 GMT: Reports that tear gas has been used in 7 Tir Square to disperse crowds.

0633 GMT: And The Plan Rolls Out. Mehdi Karroubi is speaking in 7 Tir Square, shouting "Death to Oppression!". Mohammad Khatami is also reported to be present.

0630 GMT: Reports of clashes in Isfahan's Enghelab Square.

If the plan laid out by Mehdi Karroubi's office yesterday is being followed, he should be marching to and possibly arriving in 7 Tir Square now.

0615 GMT: An Important Caution. We are being very careful about reports of numbers and intensity of protests. While those passing information are well-intentioned, the claims are always prone to exaggeration or distortion as they are passed along.

That said, there are signs that these will be the largest gatherings since June. One report from a source in Tehran: "There's too many people [at 7 Tir Square]. The [security] forces are just watching in awe."

0610 GMT: Unconfirmed reports that marchers gathering in Qom.

CNN, after days ignoring Iran, has now decided this is a Very Important Story, previewing Ahmadinejad's speech with "Tense in Tehran" and "High Alert".

0555 GMT: Reports from numerous sources of chanting from protestors, including "God is Great", "Yah Hossein! Mir Hossein!", and "Death to the Dictator". Also people are gathering under Karim Khan Bridge chanting "No Gaza, No Lebanon --- My Life for Iran".

0535 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, is filled with reports of Revolutionary Guard warnings. Thursday's statements are reported as "IRGC Preparing for Bloodbath", and then there is this claim: "According to an informed source, the security forces, based on prior plans, intend to arrest Mir-Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi following the Quds Day Marches.""

0515 GMT: It is now 9:45 a.m. in Tehran. There are reported gatherings in Tehran at 7 Tir, Vanak, and Mirdamak Squares. Uniformed security forces are gathering in Enghelab Square near Tehran University. Claims also of gatherings in Tabriz, Isfahan, and Shiraz.

From ePersian Radio via Twitter source: "Big crowd [latest report of 1000+] in 7 Tir square, most are wearing green, lots of basijis/soldiers." Another source claims, from ePersian Radio, that Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri and Sane'i have said they will join the rally.

Iran: The Supreme Leader and the Larijani-Karroubi Meeting

Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

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Maryam at Keeping the Change has posted an article on Monday's meeting between Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani and Mehdi Karroubi, offering important detail on the discussion. Equally significant is her reading of the power politics behind the encounter:

"The combination of these contradictory tactics may indicate that Khamanei is carefully crafting a strategy for resolving the post-election conflict that applies these different forms of pressure where appropriate. At the same time, however, Khamanei's approach could indicate that the Supreme Leader has a thin, unguided non-strategy and is simply throwing all his resources at the Opposition, in a desperate attempt to end the political standoff -- on this analysis, Khamanei's alternative use of aggression and diplomacy is less an affirmative, calculated decision and more a reaction to the failure of one or the other approach."

Maryam's reading is a vital contrast to our analysis, developed this morning, that it is President Ahmadinejad and his allies that are in the lead with the Supreme Leader scrambling to regain his own position. At the same time, her pondering of "careful strategy" v. "non-strategy" could be applied not only to Ayatollah Khamenei but to the Government's measures in the run-up to Qods Day.

More Details on Karroubi's Meeting Monday with Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani

The website Rouydad adds additional detail to the earlier piece we posted from Karroubi's news outlet, Eteemade Melli. According to this newest report, during yesterday's meeting Karroubi informed Larijani of his concerns with the work of the three-man committee investing the prisoner rape and assault claims, as well as the actions of the state news agecy "Voice & Visage." At the end of the meeting Karroubi reportedly told Larijani of his hope that "unlike his brother [Sadegh Larijani], [Ali Larijani] will not sell his religion to the world." The report goes on to claim that Larijani asked Karroubi to "keep quiet" until the domestic situation improves, promising that his allegations would be properly investigated once calm had been restored. Karroubi replied, "I would prefer death to remaining quite in the face of these violations."

Interestingly, Rouydad's account of the meeting begins with a quotation from a source inside Parliament, stating that: "On the orders of the Supreme Leader, Larijani met with Karroubi. Mr. Larijani is the bearer of the Leader's message." With this in mind, Larijani's request for restraint from Karroubi and Karroubi's purported refusal to do so take on added signficance. As we observed in our earlier post on this meeting, it appears that the Refomists' hand is not as weak as some have suggested and that attempts at conciliation have not been wholly put aside by the Supreme Leader. If anything, this development, taken together with the events of the last week, may indicate that Khamanei is taking multiple approaches to the post-election conflict. On the one hand, he appears to be using some elements of his arsenal, such as the Revolutionary Guard, to strike a confrontational approach with the Reformists, while at the same time using other allies, such as the hardline pragmatic Ali Larijani, to pursue negotiations with Opposition leaders.

The combination of these contradictory tactics may indicate that Khamanei is carefully crafting a strategy for resolving the post-election conflict that applies these different forms of pressure where appropriate. At the same time, however, Khamanei's approach could indicate that the Supreme Leader has a thin, unguided non-strategy and is simply throwing all his resources at the Opposition, in a desperate attempt to end the political standoff -- on this analysis, Khamanei's alternative use of aggression and diplomacy is less an affirmative, calculated decision and more a reaction to the failure of one or the other approach. This reading is borne out by a pattern which appears to have developed post June 12, with periods of intense confrontation followed by spurts of appeasement and vice-versa (witness the fourth Tehran trials and accusations against Reformist leaders of collusion with foreign governments, followed by Khamanei's public statements denying the possibility of any such conspiracy) .

In all likelihood, it is the second analysis that may best capture Khamanei's mindset -- Khamanei is, after all, known to be less than an astute politician, with a tendency to favor uncompromising, agressive political strategies to diplomacy. He is, as such, disinclined to pursue appeasement unless his preferred confrontational approach has failed. In this vein, the recent events surrounding Karroubi are telling. After the raid on his offices, the closure of his newspaper, and the threats of arrest against him have all failed to silence Karroubi, Khamanei may have decided that conciliation should, at least in the short term, be explored. If Karroubi remains defiant, however, we should expect to see Khamanei return to his tried and true aggressive posture.

Other than providing potential insight into Khamanei's political strategy, Karroubi's meeting with Larijani should serve as a small reminder of the in-roads made by the Reformists over the last two months and of the Government's heretofore inability to decisively snuff out the Movement's leaders. There is little doubt that the current situation inside the country, as well as the Government's response, is unique in the history of the Islamic Republic. This is hardly the Iran of 1988, when thousands of political activists were summarily executed, expelled, and otherwise removed from the Iranian political scene. Of course, the circumstances were differen then: those killed and exiled during that period were hardly Establishment darlings, but rather were, by and large, members of dissident groups ideologically opposed to the Islamic Republic; moreover, their elimination was religiously sanctioned by a fatwa issued by Ayatollah Khomeini. Perhaps more tellingly, however, the recent events in Iran also bear little ressemblance to the atmosphere that reigned during the Presidency of Mohammad Khatami, when the Reformists remained cowed and unable to unite against the conservative forces that were working to disrupt Khatami's efforts at change.

Outside of the brutal crackdown against demonstrators, the Government has not yet resorted to large scale violence, such as mass executions or targeted assassinations of Movement leaders, to resolve the crisis. At the same time, the Reformists have managed to maintain some semblance of unity (with Khatami, Karroubi, and Mousavi almost appearing to alternate in the role of "Movement Leader"). Moreover, the Opposition has adapted its tactics in order to maintain pressure on the Government, focusing its message less directly on the election issue and more on the events and incidents that occurred in the aftermath of the dispute, such as the show trials and allegations of prisoner rape and abuse. While these may seem like modest accomplishments, the country's history of political repression and opposition to reform over the last 30 years make them the signposts of a society in transition.

As always, trying to predict where this conflict is headed is futile. What we can conclude, however, is that the Establishment has yet to achieve a decisive victory and that this failure, in and of itself, may tell us more about the future of Iran than any one arrest, office closure, or high-ranking political meeting ever will.

Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition

Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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On Monday we listed five challengers to the authority and legitimacy of the regime. One of these, conservative and principlist critics of the Government, remained silent, but the other four kept us very busy. Let's have a look, shall we?

1) THE GREEN LEADERSHIP: Mehdi Karroubi just won't go away, will he? On Monday he issued a lengthy letter to the Iranian people, re-stating his case on the abuse of detainees and thereby taking apart the Iranian judiciary's dismissal of his evidence. He agreed to a meeting with Speaker of the President Ali Larijani, where the discussion went something like this:

LARIJANI: Karroubi, you should be silent from now until well past Qods Day.
KARROUBI: No.


Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, while arguably now in supporting roles, kept up a steady stream of information and exhortation through their Facebook pages. Only former President Khatami has retreated into silence in recent days.

2) SENIOR CLERICS: No fresh statements yesterday; however, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's Sunday message condemning the transformation of the Islamic Republic into a "military state" spread rapidly. And the family of Imam Khomenei made their position clear, from greetings of freed detainees to the filing of charges against the pro-Government newspaper Kayhan.

A very observant Iranian friend offers this important sentiment, "The ulama [Islamic scholars] are now uniting against this Government."

3) HASHEMI RAFSANJANI: The position of "The Shark", read through last night's statement on Qods (Jerusalem) Day, is in the eye of the beholder. Are the former President's words to be read as a straightforward invocation for Iranians to support the Palestinian people? Or is the message, with its reference to "an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government", to be applied closer to home?

My reaction is that Rafsanjani has cleverly put out the possibility of an endorsement of opposition while being able to respond, if pressed, "No, I didn't say that." The important dimension, however, is not my reaction but that of the millions who learn of this statement. If they interpret it as support for the cause, then the challenge to the regime will have been bolstered.

4) THE IRANIAN PEOPLE: So how many Iranians are behind the Green movement and/or its allies? How many are not "for" it but happy to stand by, despite Government injunctions to stand firm against a "velvet coup"? I'm a fool but not foolish enough to venture an answer.

Two well-informed Iranian friends discussed this with me yesterday and offered this: the number of Iranians seeking meaningful change has not diminished since 12 June. Some of those who had no defined opinion three months ago have moved behind the President; others have either been convinced by the opposition or alienated from the Government. But I think they, like me, are holding their breath for Friday.

Still I think it's safe to reaffirm, as we put forth yesterday, "The Protest Goes On". The signs were strong enough to kick what was supposed to be Monday's showcase event --- the 5th Tehran trial --- to kick the sidelines. Despite the prosecution's strident repetition of foreign-led/cyber-driven counter-revolution, complete with another "confession" --- this one from Abdollah Momeni --- the general reaction seemed to be a giant yawn.

Indeed, if the Government was sending out signals, they were of worry rather than confidence. Consider the specific references in the trial to the power of "Facebook" to corrupt the Iranian public and the attention to Mir Hossein Mousavi's IT staff. That is an indication that the regime is considered not only about Karroubi's high-profile Web outlets but about the alternative channels, including the Facebook sites (which the Government tried to hack earlier in this crisis but which now appear to be safe from demolition), set up by the Mousavi campaign.

And then there was last night's final act. Far from being secure in its position after the criticism of the day, the Government lashed out and arrested the three grandsons of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. While this is a display of power, it is a power which is not assured but spiteful. It shows not deliberation --- as in last week's attempt to break the Mousavi and Karroubi campaigns --- but a hot-headed anger and concern.

Long-term developments, short-term challenge. I'll stand by yesterday's conclusion.

Qods Day is three days away.