The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

NEW Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Obama Backs Himself into a Corner
UPDATED Iran: So What’s This “National Unity Plan”?
NEW Latest Iran Video: More University Demonstrations (29 September)
UPDATED Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Scott Lucas in La Stampa (English Text)
NEW Text: Mousavi Statement to His Followers (28 September)
NEW What is Iran’s Military Capacity?
The Latest from Iran (28 September): Signals of Power
Latest Iran Video: The Universities Protest (28 September)

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2100 GMT: We have posted an emergency update of our story on the National Unity Plan. To be blunt, this has turned into a giant mystery which we can lay out but not solve this evening, and there are likely to be further developments (even though it is early morning in Tehran) for our first update on Wednesday.

1700 GMT: We've split off our snap analysis updates on the National Unity Plan into a separate entry.

1545 GMT: A steady stream of reports indicate there are smaller but still significant gatherings of demonstrators in Tehran today. This is in addition to the sizable protest at Sharif University.

1455 GMT: Fars News have just published a copy of the National Unity Plan. We'll be back within the hour with an analysis.

1430 GMT: Back from a teaching break to find tension growing over the privatisation of Iran's state telecommunications company, with 51 percent going to a consortium linked to the Revolutionary Guard. It is reported that the Telecommunications Trade Council will review the deal, with the possibility of cancelling it because of concerns over a "monopoly".

1100 GMT: I sense a debate emerging, given our readers' comments, over the latest move of Mehdi Karroubi with his letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. Tehran Bureau takes the line that this is a Karroubi criticism, rather than a plan worked out with the former President:

1) Karroubi criticises Rafsanjani for his failure to launch an investigation into the election during his chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts session;

2) Karroubi criticises Rafsanjani for being absent during the final meeting, with its declaration praising the Supreme Leader and framing the events after the election as riots and a conspiracy;

3) Karroubi criticizes Rafsanjani for not asking the Assembly to investigate how the military is taking control of the economy, as in the recent purchase of a 51% share in Iran's state telecommunications firm;

4) Karroubi criticizes Rafsanjani for not calling on the Assembly to review Iran's foreign policy.

0930 GMT: We've just posted video from today's demonstration at Sharif University. It is reported that Minister of Science Kamran Daneshjoo was prevented from reaching the Central Library.

0905 GMT: Tabnak reports that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has distanced himself from his brother Mohammad Javad Larijani, a high-level official in the Judiciary, after the latter's criticism of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mohammad Khatami.

0900 GMT: It Wasn't Just Tehran. An account has been posted of University demonstrations on Monday in Shiraz.

0835 GMT: President candidate Mohsen Rezaei has made a significant intervention with a call for a "national election commission independent of the three branches of Government".

Rezaei's proposal, building upon earlier criticism of the Guardian Council for its handling of the Presidential vote, presents a political challenge to President Ahmadinejad moving beyond a simple "reform" of the system. His interview with Ayande News is the closest he has come to alleging electoral fraud, and he is critical of a number of individuals.

0740 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Monday statement to his followers: "Qods Day showed that [our] network is like a toddler who is growing incredibly quickly."

0725 GMT: Parleman News has now posted a summary report of yesterday's student demonstrations.

0715 GMT: Fars News tries to pour cold water on the Rafsanjani plan for a political settlement, featuring the comments of a "hard-line" member of Parliament, Ranjbarzadeh, that the plan is unacceptable because it gives concessions to the losers of the election.

0625 GMT: Iran's Nuclear Offer. The head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, has laid out Tehran's line in an interview with Press TV. Iran "will soon inform the International Atomic Energy Agency of a timetable for inspection". The plant will produce enriched uranium of up to 5 percent, consistent with a civilian nuclear energy programme, and it is being constructed within the framework of the IAEA regulations. Salehi emphasised, "It is against our tenets, it is against our religion to produce, use, hold or have nuclear weapons or arsenal. How can we more clearly state our position? Since 1974 we have been saying this."

It is 48 hours until Iran's meeting with the "5+1" powers in Geneva.

0555 GMT: Karroubi's second letter to Rafsanjani (0535 GMT) takes on a added sense of urgency because of the Government's decimation of  websites connected with Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. The Etemade Melli/Saham News site, the Kalemeh site (which had replaced Mousavi's hacked Ghalam News site), and Tagheer are all down. Mowj-e-Sabz, however, is still up, featuring Mousavi's latest statement cautioning the movement against violence.

0535 GMT: A couple of interesting shifts within the Establishment. The long-anticipated change at the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has been made, with Ezatullah Zarghami replaced by Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli. What is more interesting is the framing of the move, with Zarghami blamed for "the poor performance of the IRIB" during and after the election. Meanwhile, Fazli is portrayed as an ally of the Larijani brothers and a critic of President Ahmadinejad.

Contrary to our update yesterday, university classes have not been suspended for seven days because of "swine flu" (or Monday's demonstrations). The headline in Mehr exaggerated the story, which was simply that provisions were in place to order a suspension if fears of flu arose. Still, the

But the most important development by far came from the opposition. While Mir Hossein Mousavi, considering his next move, tried to reassure his followers that Qods Days was a success, Mehdi Karroubi may have taken the bull by the horns (or, in this case, the shark by the gills). His second letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani was not quite, "Are you with us or against us?", but it has asked the former President to come forth on the plan circulated at the Assembly of Experts. Put bluntly, Karroubi wants to know if the rumoured "political resolution" will take heed of opposition demands or sell out the protestors.

Comments

[cyrus]

This electoral coup happened for one of two reason:

1) The Pasdaran want to eliminate all economical opponents (Hashemi, Nouri and Co)
2) SL is in bad health, his death is imminent. Pasdaran cannot let a power vacum to be created.

So far they`ve won most of the battles, biggest victory being AN in office. Still unclear how much pull they have in majlis. They defeated must challengers, but their arsenal of weapons are getting short listed.

What we need is a counter coup`d`etat, Commanders within the Guards who are loyal to hashemi to take over.

as for US and their Sanctions, its useless unless you got China and Russia onboard, and put in place sanctions which affects the Guards financial interests. Take away their money, and long gone is their power as well, pardon my french- the Guards will sell their mothers as whores for a dollar, they`re not bend on following the doctrine of khomeini. They`re organized Crime.

ma zano marde jangim, bejang to bejangim

[Afshin]

@ 0535

Unlike EA I do not see this as a Karoubi initiative. I beleive this move by karoubi was discussed within the allied opposition and was put done with OK from Hashemi if not by his advice/demand.

I have said this many a time that I for a second do not believe that this whole situation just happend. This is an allience made waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay before the election. Without knowing their backs were covered, people like Mousavi, Karoubi and specially Khatami would not in a 100 years put them selves in danger like this.

[Janette]

Afshin,

I 100% agree with you.

[cyrus]

@afshin, if Karrobi , khatami and mousavi did this with the backing of Hashemi, then why is Karrobi now speaking out against Hashemi? I agree with you.. they couldn`t have done this without support from somone higher up. But why the retreat we see from Hashemi now.. one would suspect that he would go all out now.. what is Hashemi waiting for.? Any ideas.

[Peter]

Human beings all too often like to see conspiracies when quite often events are just a combination of ambition, coincidence, and a well-honed survival instinct. Somehow I have a hard time seeing Karoubi trusting Hashemi or otherwise doing his bidding.

[Ewiak Ryszard]

This should not arouse concern. It will not be war. Georgia is a flashpoint in Russia's tense relations with the West. The Bible says: "At the appointed time [the king of the north = Russia] will return and come into the south, but it will not be as the former [1921] or as the latter [2008]. For shall come against him the dwellers of coastlands of Kittim [the West], and he will be humbled, and will return." (Daniel 11:29,30a) What logical conclusions can be drawn from this forecast? Much suggests that the present economic crisis will deepen, making it possible for Russia to regain the influence, which it lost after the break-up of the Soviet Union. In relationship to this, unavoidable will be the split or even a complete break-up of the European Union and NATO. After that, Russia will come somewhere into the south. Many indicate that this might be Georgia. When this happens, the West will come against Russia. Then Iran will be humbled also. "But ships will come from the direction of Kittim, troubling Asshur [Russia] and troubling Eber [inhabiting on the other side the Euphrates]." (Numbers 24:24a, BBE)

At that time, peace will be taken from the earth and the "great sword" - nuclear sword - will be used. (Revelation 6:4) However, it will be neither the great tribulation nor "the end of the world" (Armageddon). As Jesus foretold, that will be "the beginning of birth pains". (Mathew 24:7,8)

[Afshin]

@cyrus

Politics is hardly ever what it seems. Above all Hashemi MUST in no way be seen as Green. Hashemi is first and formost the hero of the revolution and a centrist. If he is to much seen as a green he will lose all creditabilty in Qom and within conservatives. Please make no mistake in many cases the Clerics are mush further away from the Reformists then A.N and the Guards are. In the eyes of many in Qom the Reformists are nothing short of anti Islamic Heathens. For example regarding the position of women etc they loath the reformists. Hashemi must show these people that he is their man, the Imams man, the revolutions man and his allience with the reformists in just a necessity. Same as he made Khomeini believe that peace with Irak was a bitter poisen one needed to drink so is the reform.

This brings me to an example of the cold war of which the documents were leaked lately. France and UK were always openly demanding the unification of East and West Germany, When Gorbatsjov slightly hinted that the possibility should be considerd, Margaret thatcher was the first to call him and ask if he had completly lost his mind and how in gods name could he consider this. She emphesised again that UK was absolutly against this unification but in the open they would keep hammering USSR on this. But behind doors they were absolutly against it and thought of it being unacceptable. These documents were recently made public when a ex USSR Spy smuggled them to Europe and leaked them. After Margaret thatcher also France informed the USSR that they had seriuos doubts about this. This is politics... Its all a game.

[Afshin]

Ps. This is not an attack on Hashemi but a challenge to take responsibility, expect more of this. At one point Hashemi has to act and would say to his allies in Qom, I can not ignore the demand of the people, I can not turn the other cheeck and with pain in my heart I must answer the will of the revolutions hero's and the people cries and this to save the revolution.

These attacks are just to make Hashemi more appealing to the Right/to the conservatives. The Left flank is allready covered, Hashemi does not need support there, his allies have that fully covered. He needs to work the conservatives and for that he needs to distance him self from the opposition. This is all the water that is to wash Hashemis hands in innocence for when he makes his move again.

I remember saying this before, Hashemi is more and more taking the role of the S.L and placing himself as the balancing factor between the Conservatives and the reformists at the same time attacking on every chance the Guards/ A.N

[Amy]

Wouldn't closing the universities because of swine flu be counterproductive for the regime? It would leave all the students sitting around well and with nothing to do ... not likely to calm things down, if that's the govt's goal

[MD]

Afshin,

Please check this video of Kadivar ( Sep.19 ), genuinely urging Rafsanjani to meet up with his responsibilities and use his power in support of the green movement.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5JT2w8sk2E&feature=related

[whereismyvote]

I sometimes fall for the naivety of some of the readers of this forum. They take every move and counter move too liturally, and interpret it as an all or nothing black or white move. In this game of chess, you put pieces up, you push a pawn forward, and sometimes you even seem to turn sides against your first enemy to attack a second enemy, all with the plan to get to the end.

Afshin is certainly right and the alliance between the reformers and Rafsanjani happened some four years ago. After Rafsanjani's presidential loss to Ahmadinejad in the second round of 2005 elections, the two losing sides (Rafsanjani and Reformers) realized that their lack of cooperation has made the Pasdaran too powerful now, and a quick marriage under the gun was arranged. It culminated in the support of Rafsanjani's AoE election bid by reform clerics and his stumping victory. The feat was to be repeated in the election, with the coordinated campaign organized by the two sides. Rezaie was encouraged and financed to run by Rafsanjani to ensure a wide field, and Karoubi and Mousavi were put up against each other on the reform ticket. Look at who the campaign manager of Karoubi was. None other than Karbaschi, the once Tehran mayor that was put into jail by the conservatives under the placid approval of reformers. His taking the post of campaign manager clearly demonstrates that the old grudges are buried. In this battle too, Karoubi may one day seem like he is attacking Rafsanjani, but it’s a planned attack to empower a response from Rafsanjani. The relationship between Mousavi and Khatami with Rafsanjani may not be 100% solid, and I still believe there is some animosity there, but Karoubi has always been close to the shark, and in this hour of need, he is even closer than before. Don’t let the last move in this game, be the only move that you decide intent on. The last 10 to 15 moves together constitute intent on the part of the player.

The same behavior is true on the opposite side. Ahmadinejad seems at times to be in a complete alliance with the SL, and at times he seems to be getting a wipping from the SL, none of this changes the fact that they are playing together for the same end goal.

[Amy]

Scott
At last, a MSM headline that looks beyond Western interests in the nukes
http://www.reuters.com/article/gc08/idUSTRE58S26220090929" rel="nofollow">Nuclear row diverts focus from Iran unrest
It says that the regime can use the nuclear issue to play the "external threat" card, but EA commenters refute the effectiveness of that card, saying it is frayed & easily recognizable. I would argue with the authors' contention that President Obama was not "jolted" by the regimes initial refusal to engage. I seriously doubt that he was surprised.

This part is interesting:

Alireza Nader, an analyst at the Washington-based RAND Corporation, said Iranian hardliners did not want to appear to compromise on the nuclear issue, especially as this would be seen as a sign of weakness among their core supporters.

"At the same time, they realize they must tread carefully in order not to increase further pressure on Iran, since sanctions would potentially inflame conservative businessmen who have been historically supportive of the Islamic Republic, but have been dismayed by Ahmadinejad's economic performance," he said.

Moin said hardliners might profit from new sanctions in the short run through their control of state institutions that would be used to circumvent the measures, but international isolation would put them further on the defensive in the longer term.

[Afshin]

@Amy

The Students have always been the frontrunners when it comes to protests. Having them all in one place is always a danger. Closing the universities would mean most will go home for a week. some even to their home town (and away from Tehran)

[whereismyvote]

The shut down of university at the moment is a threat more than a reality. There are many objectives:
1) Stop students gathering and organizing against the government at the campus
2) Send back thousands of out of town students to their homes (most government universities are full of out of town people with only a few spots for in town people)
3) Free thousands of quota students (Basiji / Pasdaran) for street battles
4) Hope that the threat will force parents and students to behave rationally, as loss of university education is deemed greater than need to protest for freedom and students / parents of students force good behavior
5) Prepare the ground for shut down of schools. It may be that regular schools too have to be closed down, so this is in preparation

In this move too expect a battle. In Iran we have three university systems.
1) Government university, tightly controlled by the ministry of higher education 40% of the university population
2) Azad university that is semi private, controlled by Hashemi family and monitored by ministry of higher education - 40% to 45% of university population
3) Payame Noor university - 15% of the population, and third rate, not very popular -

If closure of university happens there will be a battle between Hashemi and AN as to when and why and where the Azad university will close (expect them to stay open) and this in turn will lead to an attack by AN to take over the Hashemi control of the Azad universities. For years now the Pasdaran have had their eye on the Azad university system, and want to take it over.

[Amy]

Thx Afshin
I thought they'd just be hanging out with nothing to do except the things the regime doesn't want them doing.

I agree with Afshin & whereismyvote-- the game is long & deep. Consider the battle at http://www.napoleonguide.com/battle_austerlitz.htm" rel="nofollow">Austerlitz. Also note that the strategy play out without great losses. There's still a long way to go.
(referencing Napoleon in honor of Afshin)

[Amy]

Correction of comment 15:
I seem to be leaving out words a lot to day. #15 re Austerlitz. should have said:
"Also note that the strategy did not play out without great losses."

whereismyvote
Thx for further explanation of university shutdown. I remember now that part of the purification of curriculum had to do with gaining a foothold in Hashemi's schools

[Afshin]

Aaaahhh Amy, now thats sweet... he is my hero.... ;-)

[Bijan]

Once again thank you to all for a very interesting discussion. Thinking through the discussion above plus the discussion at Tehran Bureau I can't help but wonder if another variable behind Karroubi's actions is to put himself as the lead of the reform movement. I agree with the discussions above and as we all know, behind the scenes political alliances are very common (thanks Afshin for including the UK discussion above). It does not seem to me that Karroubi is taking an all out attack either as this could run the risk of alienating those who still hold loyalties to Rafsanjani - both inside and outside of the establishment. Rather, Karroubi seems to me to be putting himself as the center of the rallying cry of the Green movement and as such is trying to spread his energy and sense of urgency to others whom he feels could add to the movement, not necessarily be part or a leader of said movement. Trying to analyze human intent is difficult, so that is not what I am suggesting, rather I suspect there are multiple elements to his recent communications to Rafsanjani.