The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

NEW Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
Iran: Montazeri Letter to Islamic Clerics (14 September)
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

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2030 GMT: An Artistic Clash for the Supreme Leader? A colleague writes with an essential correction of our first item today (0710 GMT) on Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting yesterday with ""artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers":

"The English version of Khamenei's speech to the artists actually doesn't reflect what the meeting was about. It wasn't for him to give them any guidance but rather, as Fars News fascinating account of it reveals, it was meant for the various artists to speak 'frankly' with Khamenei. While Fars New tries to whitewash some of the conversations that the artists had with Khamenei, it is clear even by their own censored account that it was a raucous meeting and that at least a couple of the artists, including Majid Majidi (who accoring to Fars News breaks down into tears) conveyed some kind of oppositional sentiment. One filmmaker when asked to speak says he doesn't feel well and sits down. Another when told there is no time for him to speak, after he had prepared a talk complains, 'You keep contacting me for a couple of days asking me to come and speak my mind and now you tell me there's no time?'"

1855 GMT: Really? According to Peykeiran, the Supreme Leader's representative with the Revolutionary Guard has warned that the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi would turn them into martyrs for the Green opposition.

Given that the Supreme Leader supposedly signed the order for Karroubi's arrest two weeks ago, this is a bit confusing. Then again, as our readers are debating in their comments, Ayatollah Khamenei's position may be far from secure.

1800 GMT: Easy Does It. In a measured, even careful, interview with Tabnak, Hashemi Rafsanjani has downplayed his absence from leading Friday Prayers on Qods Day for the first time in a quarter-century: "It is not necessary after 30 years that I should lead the prayers."

1555 GMT: Why are tents being erected around the main campus of Tehran University, where this Friday's prayers will be held?

1545 GMT: Make of this what you will: the Iranian Government has declared national holidays on Saturday and Monday, the day before and after the celebration of the end of Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr.

1310 GMT: Cyber-charge. Talk about a story turning in a few hours. The opposition's aggressive fightback on the Web continues: Mowj-e-Sabz has launched an English-language website.

1215 GMT: Cyber-bounce. Indeed, after our worry this morning (0950 GMT) about a drop in information via the Web, there is a bit of a resurgence. Mehdi Karroubi seems to have a new website for his statements and news. Is this an alternative for the Etemade Melli site, which is still down?

News is also being posted on tagheer.ir.

1200 GMT: If the Iranian regime is trying to block news in and out of Iran, the effort is incomplete. Fereshteh Ghazi has interviewed Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, who highlights the clerical resistance: "The authorities know [their] pressures have no effect on my position and action or those of Qom scholars." He adds, in relation to the arrest of his children and the family members of other clerics on Monday, "My sons and the sons of Mr. Nazemzadeh and Mr. Ahmadi aren't clerics, so why are they tried in clerics' court?"(summary in English via Ghazi's Twitter account)

Twitter traffic from inside Iran is also picking up.

1120 GMT: The US network NBC is interviewing President Ahmadinejad today and broadcasting the discussion on tomorrow morning's Today programme.

1110 GMT: The Mousavi Facebook page is still active, just posting the statement of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomenei, inviting all Iranians to participate in the rally on Qods Day "a day...for the oppressed to fight oppressors and tyranny".

1100 GMT: Morning MediaFail. CNN ($199/story) are not eligible, since they no longer have news from inside Iran. Instead, the award goes to Robert Tait and The Guardian of London. Amidst all the tension in advance of Qods Day, the confusion over Friday Prayers, the raids, the arrests, the Karroubi letters, the protests by senior clerics, their story today?

"Chinese jeans bearing name of God anger Iranians".

In their quasi-defence, the prominent notation "Read This in Chinese" is a clue that The Guardian's market attention is far away from Tehran.

1050 GMT: Cyber-war. Internet traffic from Iranians inside Iran is almost at a standstill this morning. Nothing is coming through via Twitter and contacts also remove no interaction on Facebook.

Etemade Melli/Saham News and Norooz are down. Mowj-e-Sabz and Kaleme are both up.

0950 GMT: Correcting an oversight. We have reported the arrest of the three grandchildren of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri on Monday. The children of Ayatollah Hossein Mousavi Tabrizi,were also arrested.

The catalyst for the arrests may have been an Iftar at the house of Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i. EA has received information that this Iftar, where reformist clerics and their families gathered, angered the regime and also led to the filing of a court action by President Ahmadinejad's office against Sane'i.

0935 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency carries the short item that President Ahmadinejad will introduce Ahmad Khatami, who will give the Friday Prayer address this week.

0925 GMT: Associated Press is claiming, from Iranian state radio, that the Government has confirmed Ahmad Khatami will lead Qods Day prayers.

0710 GMT: Yesterday's confusion over Qods Day continues. While Tuesday was a pretty good one for the Green leadership, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami signalled that they would join forces with Mehdi Karroubi, the Government's disarray over Friday prayers was never resolved. We've tried to see the events in wider perspective, leading up to Qods Day, in a separate analysis, "Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces".

Rather than offer any specific guidance, the Supreme Leader spent Tuesday telling "artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers" that they should be putting out proper art. His reference point was not the current internal conflict but the 1980-1988 war with Iraq: "The eight-year Sacred Defense was the embodiment of outstanding characteristics, prominent cultural values, and lofty beliefs, and those who recount it in an artistic manner are like a mirror reflecting the manifestation of splendor and glory."

If there was contemporary resonance in Ayatollah Khamenei's address, it may be in this cryptic injunction to artists that "their sensitive views should not create a spirit of despair in people".

Comments

[Yseut]

2 late articles backing E.A. late reports and
analysis

(More teeth baring from the rat pack)
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2009/september/16//kayhan-and-irna-renew-attacks-on-hassan-khomeini.html

(More cleric warning in the air)
http://english.mowjcamp.com/article/id/31972
Grand Ayatollah Warns on Possible Arrest of Dissidents

[Amy]

To our friends in Iran,
We miss you. Stay as safe as possible.

[Bijan]

Based on a recommendation I got from Scott after I emailed him a question, I would like to open it up to the audience given there are many very informed people who visit and comment on this site. A question I have had in my head, is what is the "real" impact the Ayatollah's, specifically the Grand Ayatollah's have on the population, especially considering what I understand to be a general trend in moving towards a more secular view, especially in the younger generations. Will the calls of the GA's have more impact on the population then say Karroubi or Mousavi and if so, what is the difference of this impact? My question takes into consideration personalities such as Montazeri who have been outspoken critics of the regime for decades.

Anyone have any thoughts? Thank you for sharing.

[lee]

The government declares national holidays when it fears protests so that people will go on vacations - i.e. get out of Tehran. Same tactic for 18 Tir, only then the holiday was ostensibly because of a dust storm.

[Afshin]

Hi to all,

just thought I come back and see if we can carry on where we left off. Before my short absence the last few days I had done two analyses what started an intresting Reader disscussion, unfortunatly we did not finish the full set of analyses so I thought I give it another go.

I had started with a detailed list of the battles being fought at diffrent levels such as in the streets, the Justice Department, Qom, etc. We stated on that analyses that on all fronts except Qom A.N was having the winning hand.

In order to understand and perhaps predict the next moves we then moved on to the waepons Hashemi has in his arsenal and which ones he was likely to use. Looking at the last few days we seemto have done a good job there.

Unfortunatly this is where we left things and did not carry on doing the same analyses with the other players at hand. Wanting to take only one item at a time I like to do my little bit on the S.L. I hope that this will start a similarily intresting reader disscussion as the other two posts did.

Lookig at the S.L and his set of cards one can state that his hands is perhaps the riskiest of them all. He has all to lose and so very little to gain. He has what looks to be a solid hand with lots of effective and dangerous weapons but when taking a closter look the weaponary seem to be badly maintaind and malfunctioning at times.

1) Devine Powers
S.L is the highest position one can have within the Shia world and the words of the S.L are considered Devine, only second to Imam Mahdi (the Hidden Imam), Unfortunatly for Khamenei he has always been under fire on this point as he is a mere Hojjatol Esla. He is not a Marja or even an Ayatollah, let alone the holliest of the Marja's. Religiuosly he is in no way a match for a Sistani, a Montazeri or any of the other Grand Ayatollah's. With the latest happenings this lack of religious qualifications is more openly and more often brough up and works against him.

2) Constitutional Powers
The S.L is infact above the law, or even more so his word is the law. This has infact been one of the greatest weapons the S.L has in his arsenal. Khomeini used this weapon often and highly effective. However in a time when allies and opponents openly dis-obey the leaders wishes and get away with it, using this highly dangerous weapon becomes a danger to the S.L himself. This weapon is indeed highly dangerous but when used it must leave no room for resistance, no room for negotiation, no room for disobedience and if in an occasional case this was to happen, one must have the Fire Power to immidiatly act on it, crush it, set an example and leave nothing for any other interpretation. This has not happened, the weapon is used a few times withhout succes and without any retaliation. It is still a dangerous weapon but seems to be malfunctioning and using it brings danger of exploding hurting the weapon it self but also the one pulling the treager.

3) Money
Yes the S.L is very wealthy indeed, but so are his enemies and allies perhaps even well beyond him.

4) Allies with all branches of Goverment
Yes the S.L indeed still has loyalists in the Parlement, the Ministeries, etc but he is losing more and more ground there to the guards (Reorganising of Ettela-ad, Govenors, Ministers etc), and although winning at times (Judicary) his allies seem to be as loyal as a croocked Pirate ready to leave ship like rats at the slightest signal of real danger. (Note the Ali Larrijani remarks in Qom)


5) Head of the Armed Forces
Now lets be honest is there anyone really wanting to involve even the Police let alone the army ?

6) Head of Judicary
Looks reasonably strong there but same as his brother S. Larrijani has openly flirted with the enemy. He is loyal to the S.L but will he take a Bullit for him.. I think not.

7) Head of the Media (state TV and Radio)
I am not 100% sure here but I think he is losing grip to the Guards on that level as well.

8) Basij
I know that his son Mojtaba has a lot of Pull within the Basij but again not sure how that weights in with the Push of the Guards !?

9) Bargaining
The S.L is now somewhat a Right centrist. He is for now with the Guards but come bad toi worse he could make a move to the left and try to cut a deal to same him self but that would not be in a position of power and he would have to give in big.

From all the players I think the S.L must be the one with the most worries, he has the most to lose and very little to gain from all this. He has lost big allready and really does not have the arsenal to fight back. Specially since he is caught between a Rock and a Hard Place. He is either to lose to the right or to the left but lose he will. His only salvation may be a long tiring battle between his allies and his enemies hoping that would cripple them both or at least weaken them enough for the leader to bounce back but that on its own posses a even bigger danger, this time not just to the S.L personally but the Islamic Republic as a whole ...

[Afshin]

@ Bijan

It is important, very important even, not so much for the people against the goverment but the one's pro. It devides them, makes the true believers doubt if they are on the right path.

[perry1949]

Bijan, in my opinion we are already seeing the results. Before, the word of the Supreme Leader was considered the word from God, not to be questioned. Now, not only are the people questioning his word they are openly defying him. With the GAs slowly moving to the side of the people the regime is losing all pretext of legitimacy. With this backing by the GAs Mousavi and Karroubi's words now have much more sway on the people.

Mousavi was just caught up in the wave of the sea of green. He had no intention of changing the system. He was just going to loosen it up a bit. He is still riding that wave but I dont know what he might do in power.

Karroubi, on the other hand appears to have embraced the movement and is fully behind the people and their desire for a secular Iran.

[WishOneDay]

fariba-a young blogger journalist was detained on the 1st day of ramadan, aug 22 and is in danger - she NEEDS OUR HELP please relay the information as much as you can to get media attention and alert public opinion - thanx - (fr) http://bit.ly/XMoIH #iranelection

[Thomas]

Afshin,

SL constitutional powers=International Relations, maybe his only Ace. Oct 1st meeting could be significant. Any thing in Iranian busines/economic media about a deal for Iran to get 20 Boeing airliners built in 2008/2009 via Venezuela and paid for with money US holding from 1979? I saw it somewhere a couple days ago cant remember where (i.e. rumor or fact). Would be a Good Faith Gesture between US and Iran at the start of talks (Air Transportation Safety rational).
Again his health is a big question mark, the cancer rumor I read in the spring on another intellectual blog by an out of state Iranian who supports the Conservative cause but over the years has always been accurate and factual. I assumed this was an open secert in Iran. Chemo/radation therapy could explain his lethargic decision making. Overall, he lost his legitmacy with the majority of Iranians on 6/20/09.

[Thomas]

Sorry for the previous late post in this discussion. On the West side of the Atlantic here.

[Amy]

Afshin
Good to see you back :)
SL's situation is similar to George Bush's last year in office. He can't be ignored completely, so people just work around him.

It's hard to imagine a scenario where SL can go anywhere but down, because he has damaged not only himself, but his office. Whatever happens, the position of SL will never again be anything more than symbolic. The mental image is "The Wizard of Oz", when Toto pulled back the curtain, the difference being that SL inadvertently pulled back the curtain himself.

Before the election, how fast was SL losing his grip? Since June, politicians often challenge or ignore his positions. The clerics openly challenge how he conducts his office and denounce his dictums. From what I've read, it sounds like these things happened in the past, but not so often or so directly.

What do you think he wants? He is close to the end of his life. Does he want to spend the rest of his days desperately struggling to hold on to power? Surely he understand that's the best he can hope for.

[florence]

Afshin
Although I don't know much about Iran, and relying on what you and others said, it seems to me the SL's best chance is to stay firmly on AN and the Guards' side, as they are the ones who are likely to stay in power (unless some divine surprise occurs)
and although they would certainly prefer to get rid of him or at least weaken his powers, they can't go too far because they need him as a shield against the people's anger; after all,he is the only person and institution who can lend them a semblance of legitimacy as leaders of the islamic republic.
although many people must have opened their eyes in the aftermath of the election, he must still have enough support in the least enlightened parts of the populace.

[Afshin]

Ps. I could have put this one down as well

10) The West
He is the only one in a position to make a deal with the US and Europe. However that is not a short term thing.. For now his worries are getting the internal situation under control in the coming weeks. The Deal with the west is na huge Ace up his sleave but a card he cant play that quickly

[Afshin]

@ florence

If the the Guards manage to come on top and Hashemi and the Reformist are finished off so is Khamenei's role. He is done and over with. S.L best chances are to have the Guards remain on top but leave a good opposition to constantly challenge them

[Adam]

Florence you make a good point, I think that is probably Khamenei's calculation exactly. However, I don't think it is so much "legitimacy" that he lends them as a sense of status quo. I'm not sure how old you are but if you saw or have studied the Soviet Coup attempt of 1991, it was the break with the normal way of doing things by getting rid of Gorbachev that led to disarray within the military and KGB and the collapse of that Coup.
As much as this seems like a coup by the "security" forces, the fact that Khamenei is backing it and had been above the law under the ruling system is probably the only thing keeping the police/basij/etc. following orders (at least for now).

To Afshin: That is a good point about Khamenei's ability to cut a deal with the west, but I have 2 issues with it. 1. It is not at all clear that the regime is actually willing to give up its nuclear weapons program and is just holding out for a price. 2. It is not completely clear that with Khamenei trying to maintain power in the midst of a polarization among the country's political/religious/military elites, that Khamenei has the power to demand concessions from the Revolutionary Guard that would be necessary in any deal affecting the nuclear program.

[Afshin]

@ Adam

1) If history is a good guide then it shows that these men would sell their mother to stay in power or for a few dollars more let alone if their necks are on the line..

2) MONEY... Th deal will bring Iran alot of business opportunities, 3 gusesses who benefits the most

[Bian]

Thank you Afshin and Perry. I had similar thoughts but am always curious to other opinions. Thank you for sharing.

[The Latest from Iran (16 Septe]

[...] More here: The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle … [...]

[Thomas]

The deal with the west is a domestic card for SL. Buys him time with RG as business opportunities occupy them. Though I feel it is irrelevant to the overall crisis.

I don't think Iran wants a Nuclear weapon, they want what Japan, Brazil etc. have, a program in waiting if necessary which is what enrichment gives them. The deal with US and Iran will involve a security guarntee for IAEA intense monitoring of the civilian research. Plus the future will be nuclear energy electrification. Money to be made building and selling fuel rods.

[Afshin]

@ Thomas

It is very relevant internally as it is bargaining chips.

[Thomas]

Afshin,

What I mean by irrelevant is that they have already lost. It is just how long and how much damage that will be done until the book closes.
Afterward, you will have alot of investors looking to Iran with a young, literate and technical savvy population.

[Afshin]

@ Thomas
Agreed, if Iran can offer stability the possibilities are vast

[Samuel]

"Religiuosly he is in no way a match for a Sistani, a Montazeri or any of the other Grand Ayatollah’s."

The fact is that Montazeri himself was not considered an outstanding religious figure when he was selected to succeed Khomeini. He was selected more for his revolutionary history and ideology than anything else. See for example:

"... Montazeri fell short of the theological requirements of the Faqih. He could not claim descent from the Prophet nor did he possess the credentials of a revered scholar of Islamic law. His religious followers were few. And he lacked the all-important charisma. His selection had happened for one reason - he was the only one among the candidates for Faqih who totally endorsed Khomeini's vision of Islamic government." (Mackey, Sandra (1998). The Iranians: Persia, Islam and the Soul of a Nation. New York: Plume Book. pp. 353.)

____________________________________________

See for example this story in Time from 1985 when Montazeri was selected.

"Montazeri is the youngest of Iran's handful of Grand Ayatullahs and has an undistinguished reputation as a religious scholar."
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1074848,00.html
__________________________________________________

Imam Khomeini even mocked Montazeri's religious credentials when he dismissed adressing him by a lesser title. I know that all the Pro-reformists want to use Montazeri to defame the SL leader but it won't work. Montazeri betrayed Khomeini. PERIOD. END OF STORY.

Supreme Leader Khomeini on the other hand was personally selected by Khomeini to succeed him.

As for Sistani he is a Pathetic figure who never raised a finger while Saddam decimated the Shiited community in Iraq. The true religious heroes among the Iraqi Shiites during the Saddam period are undoubtedly the Ayatollahs Sadr who paid paid with their lives for their bravery.

[Samuel]

“Religiuosly he is in no way a match for a Sistani, a Montazeri or any of the other Grand Ayatollah’s.”

The fact is that Montazeri himself was not considered an outstanding religious figure when he was chosen to succeed Imam Khomeini. His primary asset was the fact that he stood with the Ayatollah Khomeini (BEFORE BETRAYING HIM LATER ON).

“... Montazeri fell short of the theological requirements of the Faqih. He could not claim descent from the Prophet nor did he possess the credentials of a revered scholar of Islamic law. His religious followers were few. And he lacked the all-important charisma. His selection had happened for one reason - he was the only one among the candidates for Faqih who totally endorsed Khomeini's vision of Islamic government.” Mackey, Sandra (1998). The Iranians: Persia, Islam and the Soul of a Nation. New York: Plume Book. pp. 353.

See also for example: “Montazeri is the youngest of Iran's handful of Grand Ayatullahs and has an undistinguished reputation as a religious scholar.” http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1074848,00.html

There are numerous such accounts from the period.

Finally, the SL was personally chosen by Imam Khomeini to succeed him while Montazeri was personally dismissed and insulted in the harshest way possible by the Imam.

[Afshin]

@ Samuel

Yes Khamenei (Backed by Hashemi) was the politician, Montazeri was not. Khamenei is not backed even by one Marja... Religiously they look down on him.

You should not confuse political succes with religious qualities. In 1987 Khamenei was a Hojjatol Eslam while Montazeri was long a Marja... Montazeri was set aside because he could no longer sell his religion, his beliefs, his humanity for political gain...