Israel: Defense Minister Barak Escapes British Arrest for War Crimes

Israel: US Urges Investigation of War Crimes Allegations

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A bit of a tricky consideration for Anglo-Israeli talks: British lawyers for 16 Palestinians are seeking an international arrest warrant for Israel's defence minister.

Still, Ehud Barak, followed by reporters and demonstrators, met British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Foreign Minister David Miliband at the Labour Party conference in Brighton.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJFuRb-qdX4[/youtube]

Amidst the Goldstone Report's conclusion that Israel had been responsible for war crimes during its offensive in Gaza, solicitors asked a district judge at the City of Westminster Magistrates Court to issue a warrant for Barak's arrest under the 1988 Criminal Justice Act, alleging that Barak had committed offences against the 1957 Geneva Conventions.

The Israeli Ministry of Defense responded that Barak enjoyed diplomatic immunity "due to his being a minister in the government" (although media reports said Barak had been warned about the impending legal action and urged to leave the UK for France by Israeli officials).

The Guardian reports that, despite the official Israeli statement, lawyers from two London law firms believe the warrant that the International Criminal Court issued in May 2008 for the arrest of Omar al-Bashir, the President of Sudan accused of committing war crimes in Darfur, offers a precedent. However, the British court rejected the appeal, accepting the arguments of the British Foreign Office that Barak was a state guest and not subject to such lawsuits.

Freed from the prospect of a jail term, Barak praised Israel's offensive strategy:

We do not intend to let terror win.. We will not apologize in any way for our just struggle against terrorism. We will do everything possible so that the representatives of Israel, security officials and soldiers of the IDF will continue to freely travel the world. The theater of the absurd whereby those who defend their citizens need to be on the defensive has to end. Otherwise, the world is likely not only to give a prize to terrorism, but to encourage it.

Iran's Nuclear Programme: Obama Backs Himself into a Corner

Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Scott Lucas in La Stampa (English Text)
The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

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Last week's high tide of politics over the Iranian "secret nuclear plant" still has some unpleasant backwash today, 48 hours before the US and other "5+1" powers meet Iran in Geneva. Bret Stephens of The Wall Street Journal takes the prize for meaningless swagger with his declaration of a neo-conservative resurgence: "A view of the world that understands that American power still furnishes the margin between freedom and tyranny, and between prosperity and chaos, is starting to look better all the time. Even in France."

Meaningless because, unless Mr Stephens is ready to lead the bombers over Iran, there's precious little he can do to back up the bluster. Far more importantly, the Obama Administration may be finding that it has talked itself into a high-profile corner.

The clue is the latest White House spin to the front-line newspapers. Yesterday's New York Times gives the game away. On the surface, it proclaims, "U.S. Is Seeking a Range of Sanctions Against Iran", but the more you read, the narrower that range becomes. Officials admitted, "The United States was not likely to win support for an embargo on shipments of gasoline or other refined fuel to Iran. The European allies...view this as a 'blunt instrument' that could hurt ordinary Iranians, inflame public opinion and unite the country behind the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."

The initial flourish, offered after President Obama's statement last week, that even Moscow was in line with a tough approach has sagged limply: "Administration officials acknowledge it will be difficult to persuade Russia to agree to harsh, long-term sanctions against Iran, whatever the assurances that the Russian president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, gave last week to Mr. Obama. China, these officials say, is even less dependable, given its reliance on Iranian oil and its swelling trade ties with Iran."

So all that's really left in "the range" is the suggestion of barriers to investment in Iran's gas and petroleum industry and more restrictions on Iranian financial institutions, covered by the assurance, "The administration also is seeking to build a broader coalition of partners for sanctions so that it may still be able to act against Iran even if China and Russia were to veto harsher measures proposed in the United Nations Security Council."

And even then promise of multilateral action is further constricted today. The Wall Street Journal reports that the White House will still face numerous challenges matching its rhetoric on sanctions with real international action, said U.S. and European officials involved in the process. That makes "the U.S. Treasury -- and not the United Nations -- the main focus of the West's financial campaign against Iran for now...The Treasury has pursued dozens of unilateral sanctions against Iranian banks, government officials and defense companies in recent years in an attempt to pressure Tehran."

The US Treasury? As far as I can tell, the American effort has gone from a united international front against Iran's threat to a "coalition of one".

There's still some blowing of smokes in places like Tuesday's Washington Post with the declaration, "The Obama administration is laying plans to cut Iran's economic links to the rest of the world if talks this week over the country's nuclear ambitions founder." Once again, however, it only takes a few paragraphs to see through Sanctions' New Clothes: "The administration has limited options in unilaterally targeting Iran, largely because it wants to avoid measures so severe that they would undermine consensus among countries pressing the Iranian government."

When rhetoric finally arrives at the obstacle of action, steps mentioned include making it more difficult for foreign firms to get adequate insurance for investments in Iran. But, surprise, surprise, the US has been pursuing that effort for years, so there is nothing new in the measure. Nor is it clear how much more punishment can be meted out by the suggestion of tightening restrictions on Iranian financial institutions.

And none of this can obscure the inconvenience that, as noted in The New York Times, major investors like Russia and China are likely to keep investing and trading. Credit to Simon Tisdall of The Guardian for stating the blunt facts:

Iran provided 10% of China's crude oil needs last year; its market share is expected to grow. Chinese companies and middlemen are supplying one third of Iran's refined petroleum requirements as western companies back off. Earlier this year the China National Petroleum Corporation signed a $1.7bn investment deal with the National Iranian Oil Company. The overall Chinese energy stake in Iran is said to be worth $100bn.

Speaking before crucial nuclear talks in Geneva, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu urged the US, Britain and other UN security council members to eschew confrontation. "We believe that all sides should take more steps to ease tensions and resolve problems, not the opposite," she said. Beijing's meaning was plain. Even if it supported sanctions in principle (which it does not), it was not disposed to support measures that would harm its national economic self-interest.

It appears that the US plan was to show up at the Geneva talks with a loaded gun. An article in Sunday's Washington Times revealed:

President Obama's decision to confront Iran with evidence of a secret nuclear production site Friday was the culmination of a deliberate strategy over the past nine months to gain maximum impact from the disclosure by building up to it with other steps on the world stage.

A high-ranking administration official [said] that while the White House knew about Iran's construction of a second uranium enrichment plant before Mr. Obama took office in January, it waited to drop the bombshell until U.S. officials had conducted extensive diplomatic advance work.

Even when Iran disrupted the plan by telling the International Atomic Energy Agency of its second enrichment plant, the Administration kept a grip on the holster; indeed, by the time Obama made his statement, he was waving a pair of six-shooters.

Only one thing. If you're going to bring a gun to the table, you best make sure you've got enough bullets. And the Administration is beginning to discover, very late in the day, that it may not have even one in the chamber.

No amount of bluster, not even of Stephens-esque proportion, does not remove that difficulty. Indeed, it only bears out the ill-judged strategy of speaking loudly and carrying a very small stick.

Qods Day: A Protest For Palestine or Against Iran's Government?

Iran: So, What Are the Green Movement’s Goals Tomorrow?
Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (17 September): Tomorrow

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Meir Javedanfar offers this useful overview, originally published on The Guardian website, of Qods Day --- "A Green Day for Iran":

International Jerusalem Day (Rooze jahaniye Qods) is observed in Iran on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan. This year it falls on 18 September. Jerusalem Day was designated by the late Ayatollah Khomeini as a day of support for Palestinians and opposition against Israel. It is a day when the government issues permits for hundreds of thousands of Iranians to pour on to the streets and demonstrate.

Some attend due to genuine support for Palestinians. Others take part because of government pressure. This is especially true of civil servants. Some fear that failure to attend could damage their job security and prospects. When it comes to the number of demonstrators, there is no limit on how many people can come out to the streets. In fact, as far as the government is concerned, the more the merrier.

This is in direct contrast to demonstrations held by reformists. The Ahmadinejad administration, using violence and intimidation, has done its utmost to limit such protests, if not eradicate them entirely. This has forced many of Iran's demonstrators to come up with new ways of voicing their opposition, using seemingly legal means. One popular method is going on top of their roofs to shout "Allahu akbar" (God is greatest). This is not against the law. In fact, this is one of the methods of protest used by those who took part in the 1979 revolution.

With Jerusalem Day approaching, opposition forces in Iran are sensing another opportunity to vent their anger under legal guises. As far as they are concerned, it is legal for all Iranians to protest openly on the streets on that day. Participation is not constrained by domestic political ideology. Therefore, in cities such as Tehran, there are plans by reformists to turn this year's Jerusalem Day into a green (reformist) day.

What is particularly clever about this strategy is that although green is considered as a hostile colour to Ahmadinejad, when it comes to Palestinian politics, it is a favourable colour (even to Ahmadinejad supporters), because it is the colour of Hamas. Therefore on Jerusalem Day it will be difficult for the government to ban people or to arrest them for wearing green, as they could use the excuse that they are showing solidarity with Hamas. In fact, we may even see some of Ahmadinejad's supporters wearing green.

This year's Jerusalem Day will be an important opportunity for Iran's reformists. They are likely to take full advantage, since the number of demonstrations in Iran has been decreasing due to the violent government crackdown.

This is in addition to other problems facing Iran's reformists before and after the recent presidential elections. One of them is the fact that their numbers were limited to major cities, especially Tehran. Towns and villages in rural areas showed less support because they are not connected to the internet, which made it more difficult for the reformists to campaign and mobilise support before and after the elections.

There is also the fact that many of the demonstrators were students. The majority of Iran's students are in Tehran or other big cities such as Shiraz and Esfahan. Regional towns and villages do not have big universities, so anti-government activities cannot spread through the student population.

Furthermore, the pro-reformist demonstrations in Iran have become synonymous with Tehran, especially its northern and western parts, which are considered the most affluent. In Iran, there is a certain amount of animosity held towards rich parts of Tehran, which has made it more difficult for reformists to persuade Iranians from other parts of the country to join them.

When it comes to aiding the Palestinians, there are many reformists who believe in an "Iran first" policy, meaning that Iran's welfare and national interest should be placed above that of its allies in Gaza. Although this does not mean that they are anti-Palestinian, it does reflect the frustration that many Iranians feel towards Ahmadinejad's policy. During the recent Gaza war, the reformist Kargozaran newspaper published an advert condemning both Israel and Hamas. This was unprecedented. No one had dared to criticise Hamas before in the mass media. The newspaper's staff were subsequently threatened and its offices shut down.

Despite such feelings, attending the demonstrations and showing solidarity with the Palestinians could benefit the reformists – especially in light of the recent accusations by Yadollah Javani, the head of the political bureau of the pro-Ahmadinejad Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who said that Clinton, Obama and Israel had supported the reformists in Iran. By participating in the Jerusalem Day demonstrations, the reformists could make it more difficult for the conservatives to level such accusations against them.

The reformists are likely to be helped further by the publication of a report in Tabnak, Iran's most popular news analysis website, that Mohammad Mehdi Zahedi, who served as Ahmadinejad's minister of science, held a meeting with his Israeli counterpart in Indonesia in 2008. This has made Ahmadinejad, who prides himself on being an ardent enemy of Israel, look like a hypocrite, much to the reformists' delight.

The Iranian government hailed the 2006 Palestinian elections, which Hamas won, as fully transparent, fair and just. Perhaps what Iran's leaders didn't realise is that those elections, and the manner in which they were carried out, were setting an example for the people of Iran as well – and now they want the same for their own country.

EA Soundcheck: Scott Lucas on BBC about Obama's Health Care Speech

Video and Transcript: President Obama’s Speech on Health Care (9 September)

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I spoke at 0900 GMT with the BBC World Service's World Update about last night's speech by President Obama on health care, the video and transcript of which are in a separate entry. Jonathan Freedland of The Guardian of London was the other contributor. The item is at the start of the programme, which will be up until about 1000 GMT on Friday.

The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised

NOW POSTED Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers
Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing

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2220 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President (Continued)? Earlier today (1125 GMT) we noted that the head of judiciary seemed to be aiming at those who went "beyond the law" because of the "false claim" of electoral fraud. Another snippet of the interview is even more dramatic, as Larijani denounces those who have brought “great costs to the Islamic system" with their opposition.

2020 GMT: More on Ayatollahs Take a Stand? (1540 GMT) Some interesting developments from the Sunday meeting of senior clerics in Qom that we have been following. Ayatollah Golpaygani wrote a letter criticising the Ahmadinejad Cabinet; the Supreme Leader replied sharply, effectively prohibiting the Ayatollah from "interfering" in Government issues. Meanwhile, the Qom meeting has asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, based in Najaf in Iraq, to travel to Iran for discussions and Grand Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani has expressed regret for congratulating Ahmadinejad on his election victory.

2010 GMT: Report that Sadegh Noroozi, head of political council of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party, has been released.

1850 GMT: Bemoans?! Our friends at Press TV show their respect for the Mousavi statement: "Mousavi bemoans arrest of top aides, urges calm".

1840 GMT: Remember our emerging assessment that the biggest challenge for President Ahmadinejad may be governing Iran, especially handling the economy, rather than confronting the opposition? This from Press TV: "The value of Iran's oil products exports has plunged by 51 percentage points in the first half of the current Iranian year due to the global economic downturn."

1815 GMT: A Correction. We reported earlier (0920 GMT) that Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was arrested yesterday. In fact, there has been no confirmation of Baghi's arrest although the Association's offices were shut down.

1810 GMT: Quick! Look Over There! I suspect international media will be absorbed by this story, rather than any international developments in Iran, until the Supreme Leader's speech on Friday. From Press TV: "Amid international calls on Iran to engage the West over its nuclear program, the country presents the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with its latest package of proposals to tackle global issues."

1800 GMT: CNNFail/TwitterSuccess. I know, I risk being repetitive but this exchange, over the arrest of Alireza Beheshti, has to be noted to be believed:

(1330 GMT) verypissedoff: Why are CNN & ABC silent? #iranelection Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained
[The Reuters story was posted at 1251 GMT. Enduring America ran it as an urgent update, following Twitter to the Mowj-e-Sabz website, at 1945 GMT on Wednesday.]

(1655 GMT) rosemaryCNN Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained, website says

Despite the fact that Rosemary Church, one of CNN's anchors, finally acknowledged the story almost 24 hours after it happened, CNN's website still has no reference to the far-from-minor development.

This is in no way a slapdown of Rosemary Church, who does good work and has used Twitter (unlike others in the media) to interact with others rather than for self-promotion of her and her network. However, based on the last 72 hours, let alone the last three months, I will take my stand against anyone who says Twitter is merely a diversion which should be set aside in the work of "real" journalists.

1540 GMT: Ayatollahs Taking a Stand? We reported on Monday about a meeting in Qom of several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics including, Ayatollahs Golpaygani, Makarem-Shirazi, Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, on “practical steps against the coup government”. Now the Green movement's website, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that the clerics are pressing their challenge against an "illegitimate" government, including its selection of female ministers, despite an attempt by the Supreme Leader through Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi to check the opposition.

1420 GMT: We have posted a translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi advisors in a separate entry.

1400 GMT: Another Arrest. In addition to the detentions on Tuesday of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, Etemade Melli website editor Mohammad Davari, security forces arrested Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, a former IRGC commander and head of the veteran’s faction of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, at his home.

Ozlati-Moqaddam, who formerly served in the IRGC political bureau alongside Hossein Shariatmadari and Hossein Safar-Harandi, was arrested on Tuesday.

1330 GMT: A slow period has been broken by the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi. Condemning the arrests of Alireza Beheshti, his top advisor, and Mortreza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s top advisor, he warns people that “more difficult” days are on the way and advising them to be calm and remain careful and alert. At the same time, Mousavi is asking them to not be intimidated by "the coup government", as the regime's "pathetic acts" are doomed to fail like their previous efforts.

1140 GMT: Hours before he was arrested yesterday, Mehdi Karroubi's aide Morteza Alviri, who was also a member of the Karroubi-Mousavi committees investigating detentions, gave an interview to Rooz Online (translation by HomyLafayette):

The regime's actions have pushed political activity out of parties and into homes and within the population....Silence is not acquiescence. There is a bomb within the hearts of the people, and it can explode at any time....I still believe that fraud took place in the election. The country is in a state of martial law.

1125 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President? The head of Iran's judiciary has said that the "false claim" of election fraud led some people to go "beyond the law", adding, "The life of our social system is dependent on law enforcement."

Larijani was vague beyond this, for example, on detentions and trials, but I wonder if the statement could be read as implicit acceptance of the Ahmadinejad line.

1040 GMT: It's All about Us (outside Iran). The perils of an attention span which is all about what Iran means for "us" rather than what is happening inside Iran is all too clear in Simon Tisdall's blunt statement today in The Guardian of London: "If anyone still wonders what happened to the Iranian revolution of 2009, the answer is: the hardliners won."

Even a quick glance at EA's analyses, and those of other sites like Anonymous Iran and Keeping the Change, complicates Tisdall's assertions. Who exactly are his "hardliners"? Ahmadinejad? The Revolutionary Guard? The Supreme Leader? All of the above? And has the opposition just evaporated in the face of measures such as yesterday's raids?

These are trifles, however, because Tisdall is not really concerned with anything beyond a superficial reference to the internal situation. His focus is "the difficulties inherent in dealing with Tehran". Nuclear programme. Sanctions. "Soft power". All of which leads him into the cul-de-sac:

One is to admit the Israelis may be right in arguing that military action is the only sure way to hinder or stop Iran's nuclear advances. The other is to do nothing – and hope that Iran's repeated assurances that it does not seek the atom bomb are true.

As bleak as the picture may be in Iran after the last 48 hours, it's far better than this simplifying of "our" options by reducing the Iranian people to bystanders and pawns.

0920 GMT: A Far-from-Incidental Note. The Mousavi-led Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners and Mehdi Karroubi's operations were not the only organisations targeted in the last 48 hours. Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was also arrested yesterday. Baghi's office was searched and documents and equipment were taken by security forces.

0825 GMT: MediaWatch. Both New York Times and Washington Post have articles on yesterday's raid of Karroubi offices, although they only briefly mention the later arrest of Alireza Beheshti. The Los Angeles Times, normally in the lead of US-based coverage, get tangled up: anxious to feature their journalistic coup of an interview with Mehdi Karroubi, they reduce news of the raids and arrests of his staff to an insert paragraph.

CNN, continuing its poor coverage even as its correspondents pile onto Twitter to promote themselves, do not notice the Beheshti arrest. Al Jazeera also misses the Beheshti news, however, and the BBC, however, is even worse: distracted by Iran's promotional claim that it is submitting proposals on its nuclear programme today, they see nothing at all inside Iran.

0820 GMT: It appears that, with its offices raided and its editor-in-chief arrested, the Etemade Melli website (which includes Saham News) is suspended. There have been no new posts since 3:25 p.m. local time yesterday.

0800 GMT: The Mousavi response to the raid on their office and later arrest of chief advisor Alireza Beheshti? This was posted three hours ago on Facebook: "Coup gov.! We R the Media & wont let our leaders be taken hostage silently.Go Green & Bring #iranelection back on top:World will be watching /"

0750 GMT: Almost lost in yesterday's chaos was the statement of the commander of the Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari, pressing the foreign-led "soft war" pretext: “Iran's great territory, population, military might, and unique geographical location in the Middle East have turned it into a strong power, and political experts in Western countries know that they cannot overwhelm Iran by launching a military attack or hard war."

Saffari claimed that a “media war” had stirred up “civil disobedience”, asserting, “The US strategy to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on soft measures," even as it continues threats to launch a military attack.

The rhetoric is far from new, of course. What is significant is how the IRGC is pushing it less than a week after the Supreme Leader denied that foreign powers were able to pursue their "soft war" because of the strength of the Iranian system.

0730 GMT: It looks like folks in Iran are picking up the pieces from yesterday's dramatic events, so we've spent the time on a detailed analysis, "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move", considering the significance of the raids and arrests. Our easier conclusion is that this is an attempt to break the Green movement and back down Hashemi Rafsanjani. The tricker reading is whether the President and Revolutionary Guard have done this as an assertion of authority against the Supreme Leader. We'll be debating this throughout the day (and beyond) and welcome your comments and ideas.

Josh Shahryar is also working on an analysis for a high-profile publication; we'll keep you posted on when it appears. Meanwhile, his latest "Green Brief" summarising Tuesday's events is out.