The Latest from Iran (30 September): Confusion

NEW Iran: Mousavi Meeting with Reformists (30 September)
Iran: Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani (27 September)
NEW Video/Transcript: “Will Israel Attack Iran?”
Iran Top-Secret: The President’s Gmail Account
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Obama Backs Himself into a Corner
UPDATED Iran: So What’s This “National Unity Plan”?


The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

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2040 GMT: We now have an English translation of the Mousavi meeting with the reformists, posted in a separate entry.

1910 GMT: Parleman News has updated and extended its summary of the Mousavi meeting with reformist faction Imam Khomeini Line. The story reiterates the significant shift in Mousavi's approach that we have noted (1240 GMT, 1615 GMT, 1800 GMT).

1900 GMT: Overseas Mystery of Night. Why is Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in Washington? I presume it's to visit the Smithsonian Institution and maybe the National Art Gallery, since the State Department denies he is seeing US officials.

The party line is that Mottaki, having been in New York for the United Nations meeting, is visiting the Iranian Interests Section at the Pakistan Embassy. No explanation, however, of what he has been doing in the several days after the UN gathering. (AP has an English summary.)

1815 GMT: Another Clue to the Plan? From Mehr News:

Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi has called for the establishment of a committee comprised of MPs and other prominent national figures that would be tasked with attempting to end the political disputes in society.

“A committee comprised of MPs and certain elite people outside the Majlis should… create friendship between political groupings so that these disputes end. The continuation of these deputes is not in our country’s interests,” he told seminary students and religious figures at meeting in Qom on Wednesday.

1800 GMT: This.  Could. Be. Huge. Consider this extract from Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to reformists, posted on the Facebook page linked to him: "Forming a new party cannot add to countries existing capacities, while strengthening the cores of the social movement will create new capacities and improve the movement."

Throughout the summer, Mousavi talked of forming a new political movement (he didn't call it a "party", since that would have to be licensed by Iranian authorities). Even in his recent promulgation of The Green Path of Hope as a "social movement", he implied that it would have a political role challenging the Ahmadinejad Government.

Now he has abandoned that approach, one presumes, because he has chosen to work with the Plan promoted by institutions within the system that he was challenging up to this week.

1615 GMT: Quiet afternoon but this further summary of Mousavi's message to reformists sets off a bell: "Today, national unity is of outmost importance."

Now, of course, all politicians are going to make calls for unity but does this mean that, whether or not a National Unity Plan has been agreed, Mousavi is going to work with an "establisment" committee for a political accommodation?

1300 GMT: The reformist Imam Khomeini Line, which met Mir Hossein Mousavi yesterday (see 1240 GMT), will also be meeting Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. (But what about Karroubi?)

1254 GMT: The Movement Cannot Be Silenced. A reader kindly directs us to a blog by Persian Umpire on the spread of information inside Iran. Amidst interesting notes such as "BBC Persian is...gobbling up the Voice of America audience because of superior programming and better news coverage", the author sets out this important observation:

We see your tweets, pics, posts, leaks, walls, rumors, articles, flames, trolls, messages of support, slogans, comments, funnies, videos, and everything else you produce. Let us take Twitter which is actually an important source for us, especially for breaking news even if it is happening in Iran. Case in point: this week’s student protests. For those who do not have accounts, there are websites that broadcast the public tweets from any hashtag. Surprisingly some of these sites are not yet filtered. In cases where filtering is in place, we use proxies to get to this information. Also, there are RSS feed readers that we can use to get to your messages through web-based mail services and thus bypassing the filters in a different way. There is no way to block us in, other than cutting the internet altogether, and the government cannot do that easily as some of the crucial internal communications, such as banking, depends on it. If they ever decide to do this, it will take a campaign of outlawing and phasing out residential connections. Even in this case we still have internet at work, and in the end, long-distance dial-up. If I have to pay a $200 phone bill per month to read what you write, so be it.

He/she adds, "How does a minority crawling the nooks and crannies of the internet, let a majority know about it? Information gathered from websites is first disseminated through chat and email, and then word-of-mouth does what it does best."

1250 GMT: Nice to see that The New York Times hasn't been completely diverted by the nuclear issue. Nazila Fathi writes today about Tuesday's second set of universities protests, in particular the demonstrations at Sharif University.

1245 GMT: Reformist MP Darius Ghanbari has criticised the Parliamentary fact-finding committee for avoiding the issues of Kahrizak Prison and secret burials, as well as the points in Mehdi Karroubi's letter, in their unclassified report.

1240 GMT: The Plan in Action? Parleman News has published an account of a meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and the reformist Imam Khomeini Line. Mousavi's message? "Greens are now within the system."

1230 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's second letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. To say it's critical is an understatement; Karroubi is calling out the former President for not backing demands for justice and reform.

1050 GMT: It is reported that leading reformist Saeed Hajjarian was released this morning from Evin Prison.

1045 GMT: Police representatives have announced that 10 officers have been arrested in connection with claims of detainee abuse at Kahrizak Prison.

1030 GMT: The intrigue on the "National Unity Plan" (see our separate entry) gets stranger. Fars claimed last night that Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Haeri-Shirazi had denounced talk of a Plan being brought to the Assembly as a "lie". Haeri-Shirazi's office this morning issues a statement denying any such discussion. Fars News then brings out the transcript and the audio file of the conversation.

1000 GMT: Telling Half the Story. CNN splashes the headline, "IAEA: Iran broke law by not revealing nuclear facility", on an interview with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei. He says:

Iran was supposed to inform us on the day it was decided to construct the facility. They have not done that. They are saying that this was meant to be a back-up facility in case we were attacked and so they could not tell us earlier on.

Nonetheless, they have been on the wrong side of the law, you know in so far as informing the agency about the construction and as you have seen it, it has created concern in the international community.

Here, however, is the El Baradei comment that does not get a headline and only
a reference near the bottom of the article:

Whether they have done some weaponization studies as was claimed is still an outstanding issue. But I have not seen any credible evidence to suggest that Iran has an ongoing nuclear program today.

0900 GMT: Confirmation of reports from earlier this week: post-election detainee Alireza Eshraghi has been sentenced to 5 1/2 years in prison for acts against national security by "insulting the Supreme Leader and President" and attending illegal gatherings.

0830 GMT: One other report which emerged last night. The Iranian Government is still considering the temporary closure of universities because of "swine flu".

0820 GMT: A morning to re-assess what has happened in the last 24 hours, especially with the purported "National Unity Plan". Latest indications are that the plan, which emerged last night, is actually an early draft, so it raises more questions than answers. We've got up-to-the-minute analysis in a separate entry.

The other event on the radar is tomorrow's meeting between Iran and the "5+1" powers in Geneva on Tehran's nuclear programme. Media fury continues in the US, but the Obama Administration is now far more cautious in its statements. In particular, it appears that the American attempt to "negotiate from strength" through the sanctions threat is running into difficulties. We've got the latest in another entry.

Finally, for those who prefer the "real" story, Enduring America has gotten access to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Gmail account.

The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

NEW Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Latest Iran Video: The Allegations of Detainee Abuse
Iran: The Protest Goes On
Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull — Storm?

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2110 GMT: On the day after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denounced Iran's "military state", his three grandsons --- Mohammad Mehdi, Mohammad Ali Montazeri, and Mohammad Sadegh --- have been arrested.

2045 GMT: Over to You. What do you think Hashemi Rafsanjani is intending for Qods Day? We've posted a translation of his statement today, including his reference to "an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government".

1910 GMT: Got It in One. Our prediction at 1450 GMT: "the Speaker of the Parliament asked Karroubi to please refrain from taking to the streets this Friday on Qods Day, promising in return a genuine Parliamentary review of the claims of detainee abuse."

From Rouydad News: "Larijani asked Karoubi to keep quiet for a while. Karoubi said I will die but I won't keep quiet."

1830 GMT: Did Rafsanjani Just Bless the (Green) Cause? Our sharp readers will have noted our caution in the previous entry. While Hashemi Rafsanjani had asked Iranians to march on Friday, he had referred to the cause of Palestine.

The Internet is buzzing, however, with the reading that the former President has now signalled that he is with the opposition. The key sentence? The Iranian version of "It is always darkest just before dawn".

1738 GMT: The website of the Supreme Leader has denied the claim that Hashemi Rafsanjani, in a talk with Ayatollah Khamenei, threatened to resign all his positions if Mehdi Karroubi was arrested.

1735 GMT: Report that Majid Nayeri of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party was released Sunday night after 89 days in prison.

1730 GMT: Hashemi Rafsanjani has issued a statement calling on people to march on Qods Day, ostensibly for the "Palestinian cause".

1450 GMT: More on the Ali Larijani-Karroubi meeting (1100 GMT). Reports indicate the discussion lasted two hours and both sides agreed not to reveal details.

For what it's worth, I'm speculating that the Speaker of the Parliament asked Karroubi to please refrain from taking to the streets this Friday on Qods Day, promising in return a genuine Parliamentary review of the claims of detainee abuse.

1410 GMT: Mehdi, Mir Hossein, Hashemi, We'll Take All of You On. Fars News is featuring three articles on today's Tehran trials. Two are the detailed recitations of Karroubi and Mousavi computer-whizzes trying to take out the system with a "velvet coup". The other, however, deserves a moment's attention: Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, is the accused culprit trying to ensure a Mousavi "victory".

1345 GMT: Khomeini --- He Once Led the System, Right? Because his family sure are giving the regime a rough time. There's the lawsuit against Kayhan newspaper (1305 GMT), yesterday's warm reception for the freed Alireza Behesti, and now the pictures are out of an equally effusive greeting for the released activist Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour.

1335 GMT: The Clerical Challenge. From this morning's analysis: "If Karroubi remains a presence and if senior clerics continue their challenge to the legitimacy of the Presidency, then the wave [of resistance] will come ashore again and again."

We've featured Karroubi already (1315 GMT). Now for the senior clerics via a letter from Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, claiming that the Islamic Republic is no longer a system led by religious tenets but a "military state".

1325 GMT: Parleman News reports that General Mohammad Moghaddam, head of the Veterans’ Section of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign, was released on Friday night. Moghaddam had been arrested on Tuesday as part of the crackdown on Mousavi and Karroubi staff investigating charges of detainee abuse.

1315 GMT: Karroubi's "Bring It On". More news to add to our morning analysis "The Protest Goes On". Mehdi Karroubi has offered a pointed response to the three-member judiciary panel that has rejected his evidence on abuse of detainees and the threat to arrest him. He has written to the Iranian people, describing the post-election events that led him to protest through his letter, initially sent to Hashemi Rafsanjani. An Iranian activist has a running summary in English on Twitter.

1305 GMT: Back after a break to an avalanche of news. The Financial Times of London reports that the Imam Khomeini Institute, run by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan, has filed a complaint against Kayhan newspaper over an editorial that alleged that the Khomeini household was infiltrated by “riotous agents”.

1110 GMT: Meanwhile, the Engagement is On; the Nuke Deadline is Off. The European Union's Javier Solana and Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of Iran's National Security Council, have decided after a morning phone call, to meet on 1 October, well after President Ahmadinejad's forthcoming in NewYork City.

An EA correspondent: "The venue of the Solana-Jalili meeting is not clear, but it appears that United Nations General Assembly meeting, as well as Obama's informal September deadline, can now be classified as irrelevant in the nuclear battle between Iran and the West."

1100 GMT: What is Ali Larijani Saying to Mehdi Karroubi? The Speaker of the Parliament is meeting this afternoon with Karroubi at the Parliament building; Qodratollah Alikhani, the secretary-general of Karroubi's Etemade Melli party, is also in attendance.

The meeting was requested by Larijani. So a question, from an EA correspondent, "Has he been ordered by the Supreme Leader to instill some 'reason' into Karroubi?

0940 GMT: Oops. Much credit to The New York Times for persisting in coverage of the internal Iran situation when others have walked away (CNNWatch: six days and counting since their website had a story). Unfortunately, this morning's article by Nazila Fathi on the release of chief Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti goes astray: "[He] has been released in what appears to be a sign of retreat by the hard-core conservative authorities running Iran."

Retreat? I would love to concur but, pre-Qods Day and amidst a new trial, the threats against Mehdi Karroubi, and arrests of other activists, this is more a re-drawing of battle lines (see our separate analysis).

0930 GMT: Prediction Fulfilled (Within Two Hours). From our morning analysis: "The regime can now offer token concessions on investigations — a few officials reprimanded for Kahrizak prison, a prominent prisoner released on bail — while maintaining control of the process." Well, this just in from Press TV:

The Iranian judiciary panel looking into post-election events says its work is not over, despite having rejected claims that prisoners were sexually abused. "The three-member panel is still active. Its first report was about claims made by [Mehdi] Karroubi," Iran's Chief Prosecutor Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei said during a Sunday night televised interview.

“However, the panel is still investigating other issues such the [attack on Tehran] University dormitories and the events that took place in Kahrizak [prison],” added the prosecutor, who is one of the three panel members.

0825 GMT: New Media and Old Journalists. A happy coincidence to replace my unhappiness with the recent column by Roger Cohen mis-understanding New Media and reducing the Iranian people to helpless bystanders. Mahasti Afshar has a must-read corrective, "Twitter is Now All I Have", in The Huffington Post.

0815 GMT: Reuters, drawing on the Iranian Republic News Agency account, has noted the trial. There are six defendants today, including activist Abdollah Momeni. Fars continues to offer the fullest account, now aiming at the "IT staff of Mir Hossein Mousavi".

0705 GMT: The 5th Tehran trial has begun, and here are the buzzwords, courtesy of Fars News: "velvet coup", "psychological warfare", and "cyber-space pathology".

The prosecution's rhetoric is familiar and, to be honest, a bit tiresome. This, however, raises an eyebrow on the Iran Government's perception of the power of social media (are you reading, Roger Cohen?): "25 million Iranian users use the network site Facebook and have been able to contact 200 million people in cyberspace". Some Iranian media had used these networks for "agitation" of "incorrect actions".

0655 GMT: The story this morning is likely to be the 5th Tehran trial of post-election detainees. The symbolism is clear, after last week's high-profile attacks on Mousavi and Karroubi campaigns and attempts to quash any investigation of the abuse of detainees: We're in Charge Here.

Yet, for all the drama of its move, the Government --- at least in my view --- has not succeeding in quashing the Green opposition. We've posted a special analysis, "The Protest Goes On".

The Government's confrontation with the opposition still has some carrot on the stick. One piece of news from yesterday that we wanted to confirm: the human rights lawyer Mohammad Ali Dadkhah has been released on $500,000 bail.